Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / When Is the Right Time for MIDTERMS PANIC?!

Transcript

When Is the Right Time for MIDTERMS PANIC?! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:03
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• 0:04
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• 0:06
  how they work,
• 0:07
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• 0:09
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• 0:12
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• 0:13
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  Check it out,
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  all sorts of resources to understand prediction markets and
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  get involved in them if you want to.
• 0:18
  If you just want to learn what's going on in the election,
• 0:20
  we have tons of that going on as well.
• 0:22
  Is it time to panic yet?
• 0:24
  That's the conversation we're gonna have today.
• 0:26
  We have a candidate countdown,
• 0:28
  another candidate in a race that I like,
• 0:30
  and a couple other markets that I kinda like
• 0:32
  as well that I think you'll be interested in.
• 0:34
  Go to predictableShow.com,
• 0:36
  get involved,
• 0:36
  premium subscribers,
• 0:37
  get all sorts of great benefits including
• 0:39
  every prediction market position that I have.
• 0:41
  You can just look at them and decide whether you wanna follow them or not.
• 0:44
  So check it out,
• 0:44
  predictableShow.com.
• 1:01
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 1:04
  Here we go.
• 1:04
  Let's get right to it.
• 1:06
  It's a big day.
• 1:06
  You know,
• 1:07
  we're 41 days away from the midterm elections,
• 1:11
  right around the corner,
• 1:12
  and you might say,
• 1:13
  well,
• 1:13
  that seems still,
• 1:14
  it's like it's like 6 weeks,
• 1:16
  no big deal.
• 1:16
  Well,
• 1:17
  I will tell you lots of places are already early voting,
• 1:19
  and,
• 1:19
  uh,
• 1:20
  coming up on Thursday,
• 1:20
  Illinois,
• 1:21
  uh,
• 1:21
  starts that process along with uh Maine
• 1:23
  and a bunch of other states as we go into October.
• 1:26
  I want to talk to you about the panic button.
• 1:28
  Is it time to hit the panic button?
• 1:30
  Republicans are hitting the panic button.
• 1:32
  That's according to Punchbowl News today.
• 1:35
  Uh,
• 1:35
  they say that they are hitting the panic button
• 1:37
  before election day.
• 1:40
  Uh,
• 1:41
  gas prices are sky high,
• 1:42
  diesel's setting a new record almost daily,
• 1:44
  they say.
• 1:45
  Trump said at the United Nations that the Iran
• 1:48
  war won't end until after the midterm elections.
• 1:51
  Frightening prospect for the GOP,
• 1:53
  according to the Punch Bowl News report.
• 1:54
  They say they talk about some people taking new positions,
• 1:57
  trying to like get out ahead of this,
• 1:58
  try to,
• 1:58
  how do we,
• 1:59
  how do we push back.
• 2:00
  Ashley Hinson,
• 2:01
  senator,
• 2:01
  uh,
• 2:02
  Senate candidate in,
• 2:03
  uh,
• 2:03
  Iowa,
• 2:04
  is demanding the House return to session to enact a ban on diesel exports.
• 2:08
  There's other people saying,
• 2:09
  hey,
• 2:09
  we need to end this war right away.
• 2:11
  That's going on,
• 2:12
  and Republicans are trying to fix these problems the best that they can.
• 2:16
  With just an ungodly amount of money.
• 2:20
  Uh,
• 2:20
  and by the way,
• 2:21
  that is a,
• 2:21
  I'm not,
• 2:22
  that's not me being critical
• 2:24
  of the GOP.
• 2:24
  I think,
• 2:25
  uh,
• 2:25
  you know,
• 2:25
  if they do what they're saying they're doing here,
• 2:27
  I mean,
• 2:27
  I,
• 2:28
  we can't blame them for,
• 2:29
  for spending if they lose.
• 2:31
  Um,
• 2:31
  Texas PAC,
• 2:32
  the Senate Leadership Fund's Lone Star State,
• 2:34
  uh,
• 2:34
  Super PAC,
• 2:35
  adding more than $35 million
• 2:37
  to its already $65 million in TV reservations.
• 2:40
  That puts the GOP leadership endorsed group
• 2:43
  above $100 million in ads to boost Attorney General Ken Paxson over
• 2:47
  James Tallarico,
• 2:48
  the weird
• 2:49
  youth pastor that kicked that left your church in disgrace.
• 2:53
  Uh,
• 2:53
  every time I see him,
• 2:54
  that's what I think of.
• 2:55
  Um,
• 2:55
  all told,
• 2:56
  Republicans expect to spend,
• 2:57
  uh,
• 2:57
  expect to spend between $150 and $200 million in Texas
• 3:00
  to save Paxton.
• 3:02
  I've been critical of Republicans and,
• 3:04
  and what,
• 3:04
  and,
• 3:04
  you know,
• 3:05
  the way they're handling this.
• 3:06
  If they spend $200 million to try to save Ken Paxton and it doesn't work.
• 3:11
  It's not their problem.
• 3:12
  That's,
• 3:12
  that's all on Paxson if he can't win that election.
• 3:15
  That's a lot of resources,
• 3:16
  and these are resources that,
• 3:17
  of course,
• 3:17
  Republicans
• 3:18
  hoped not to spend
• 3:20
  in a place
• 3:21
  like Texas.
• 3:22
  So we will see
• 3:22
  how that goes.
• 3:23
  A new poll out from CNN today.
• 3:25
  Trump midterm woes deepen amid worsened economic backdrop.
• 3:29
  I want to show you a couple of the details of this because look,
• 3:31
  I can show you bad polls honestly for the Republicans every day,
• 3:33
  and,
• 3:34
  uh,
• 3:34
  you should know about them.
• 3:35
  We have a tool at predictableShow.com called the PMC.
• 3:39
  It's the predictable midterm
• 3:41
  consensus,
• 3:42
  and what it does is it takes all these polls from all the places,
• 3:45
  puts them all together in one place,
• 3:47
  it models,
• 3:47
  it takes all the election models you can think of,
• 3:50
  some that are prominent,
• 3:51
  some you've never heard of.
• 3:52
  We go through,
• 3:53
  uh,
• 3:53
  the fundamentals of the race,
• 3:55
  the expert opinions,
• 3:56
  the fundraising,
• 3:57
  all the details,
• 3:57
  go through everything.
• 3:59
  And we give you one place
• 4:00
  to land.
• 4:01
  It's called the PMC,
• 4:02
  the Predictable Market Consensus.
• 4:03
  You can get it at predictableshow.com.
• 4:05
  It's free for you when you're looking for the Senate and House control.
• 4:07
  If you want
• 4:08
  details to every single race,
• 4:09
  that's a part of the premium
• 4:10
  tier.
• 4:11
  The bottom line is,
• 4:12
  and it,
• 4:12
  by the way,
• 4:12
  it also helps you
• 4:13
  compare those numbers against
• 4:15
  the prediction market numbers.
• 4:17
  It's a great way
• 4:18
  to look for value.
• 4:19
  I did an update last night on this,
• 4:21
  and there's one state that's like 20 points different.
• 4:24
  Now one of these is gonna be wrong
• 4:25
  by a large margin.
• 4:27
  And we will get into who that is and,
• 4:29
  and why that is
• 4:30
  uh coming up.
• 4:31
  Um,
• 4:31
  I wanna also show you this,
• 4:33
  this is breaking it down by topic and,
• 4:35
  you know,
• 4:36
  they,
• 4:37
  these are disturbing polls.
• 4:39
  Gonna be honest with you,
• 4:40
  it's disturbing polls.
• 4:41
  Let me set the,
• 4:41
  the tone here really quick for you.
• 4:44
  What we're thinking about now is 2018.
• 4:47
  2018 was a very bad year for Republicans in the midterms.
• 4:50
  It was,
• 4:51
  uh,
• 4:52
  borderline,
• 4:52
  not quite,
• 4:53
  but borderline catastrophic.
• 4:55
  There have been catastrophic years that have been worse than this
• 4:58
  for Republicans,
• 4:59
  but 2018 was pretty rough,
• 5:01
  pretty rough year.
• 5:02
  Let me show you comparisons between 2018 and 2026.
• 5:05
  This is in this poll,
• 5:05
  and you might say,
• 5:06
  well,
• 5:06
  it's a CNN poll,
• 5:07
  I don't believe it.
• 5:08
  First of all,
• 5:08
  I mean,
• 5:08
  it's,
• 5:09
  it's always good to be skeptical of any poll,
• 5:11
  uh,
• 5:11
  especially from a,
• 5:12
  from an organization you might not trust.
• 5:13
  Uh,
• 5:14
  but these,
• 5:14
  the one thing that that's interesting to understand here is these are both
• 5:18
  CNN polls.
• 5:19
  So these are just comparing apples to apples here.
• 5:22
  What's the difference between the view of the American people,
• 5:25
  according to CNN
• 5:27
  both times,
• 5:27
  2018,
• 5:28
  2026,
• 5:30
  Trump's job as president in his midterm here,
• 5:32
  he was -22
• 5:35
  in September 2018,
• 5:37
  58% disapproved,
• 5:38
  36% approved.
• 5:40
  This poll shows him at -24,
• 5:42
  so 2 points worse
• 5:43
  at 33% approval,
• 5:45
  67% disapproval.
• 5:47
  But it gets much,
• 5:48
  much worse and scarier than that.
• 5:51
  Trump's handling of the economy.
• 5:54
  In 2018,
• 5:55
  he was +5.
• 5:57
  Remember,
• 5:57
  2018,
• 5:58
  the economy is going pretty well.
• 5:59
  People,
• 6:00
  you know,
• 6:00
  they might not like Donald Trump and all of his mean tweets,
• 6:02
  but
• 6:03
  the economy is doing really well.
• 6:04
  He's +5 in 2018.
• 6:07
  Now,
• 6:07
  he is minus.
• 6:10
  46.
• 6:12
  On the economy,
• 6:13
  -46.
• 6:19
  I don't think I need to tell you that that's a catastrophic number.
• 6:21
  By the way,
• 6:21
  that's one of the reasons why he was brought into
• 6:23
  office because he's supposed to be the economy guy.
• 6:26
  Everyone loves him for that.
• 6:27
  They are falling out of love,
• 6:29
  at least according to this poll.
• 6:31
  Rating of economic conditions in the country today,
• 6:34
  he was +41 in 2018.
• 6:38
  He's now -44.
• 6:41
  Now,
• 6:41
  that's not exactly a Trump-specific poll,
• 6:44
  it's just a rating of the economic conditions.
• 6:46
  But the bottom line is they do not see this
• 6:49
  positively.
• 6:50
  The American people look at this,
• 6:51
  and this is
• 6:52
  not just CNN,
• 6:53
  it's in pretty much every poll
• 6:55
  will show you that things are not so great when it comes to the economy.
• 6:59
  You also might know that by going to your gas pump,
• 7:01
  right?
• 7:02
  You might not need a CNN poll to tell you
• 7:04
  that things aren't going so swimmingly.
• 7:07
  It's very difficult to win elections in an environment like this.
• 7:10
  I mean,
• 7:10
  I go back,
• 7:10
  I've been doing this for 30 years now.
• 7:12
  And you go back through these elections,
• 7:14
  and I can remember entire elections being focused almost completely
• 7:18
  on what the price was at the pump.
• 7:19
  It's what all,
• 7:21
  whenever a Republican,
• 7:22
  George W.
• 7:22
  Bush had to deal with this multiple times,
• 7:23
  whenever a Republican ran,
• 7:25
  all they talked about on the news
• 7:27
  was gas prices,
• 7:28
  and then Obama got into office and it was like,
• 7:29
  gas prices,
• 7:30
  why would anyone care about such an insignificant thing?
• 7:33
  Well,
• 7:33
  the media is hitting him with that same
• 7:36
  treatment today.
• 7:37
  And
• 7:37
  look,
• 7:38
  it's,
• 7:38
  it's real for a lot of people.
• 7:40
  If you happen to be a truck driver,
• 7:41
  you really understand this.
• 7:43
  I mean,
• 7:43
  this is absolutely killing you with,
• 7:45
  with diesel prices.
• 7:46
  It's a real thing,
• 7:47
  it's really hitting people,
• 7:48
  and I will say this to you too,
• 7:50
  if you happen to be one of those people who's like,
• 7:51
  oh,
• 7:52
  you know,
• 7:52
  uh,
• 7:53
  gas prices,
• 7:53
  come on,
• 7:54
  it's not that big of a deal.
• 7:55
  First of all,
• 7:55
  it's a big deal to people who are dealing with that on a day to day basis,
• 7:58
  but it's also a big deal to you because when diesel prices are high,
• 8:02
  Everything you buy,
• 8:04
  uh,
• 8:04
  goes up in price
• 8:06
  because
• 8:06
  it's being trucked across the country
• 8:09
  with diesel,
• 8:09
  and,
• 8:09
  you know,
• 8:09
  it's just one part of the diesel
• 8:12
  experience.
• 8:12
  It's
• 8:13
  people really need this fuel.
• 8:15
  So,
• 8:16
  uh,
• 8:16
  I'll give you one other thing.
• 8:17
  This is a generic ballot.
• 8:18
  We've been talking a lot about it.
• 8:19
  I wanted to give you their number.
• 8:21
  This is maybe a slight bit of good news from this poll,
• 8:24
  uh,
• 8:24
  in September 2018,
• 8:25
  um,
• 8:26
  Republicans were -12 on the generic ballot.
• 8:29
  Here they're only -8.
• 8:30
  So -8 is still
• 8:32
  pretty bad.
• 8:33
  It's about 2018 levels,
• 8:35
  slightly better in 2018 levels compared to the CNN poll.
• 8:39
  Most polls show it around -8,
• 8:41
  um,
• 8:41
  uh,
• 8:42
  anyway,
• 8:43
  but that is a significant improvement.
• 8:45
  I mean,
• 8:46
  if you're holding that,
• 8:47
  uh,
• 8:47
  uh,
• 8:48
  if you can keep that gap smaller.
• 8:50
  Than it was in 2018.
• 8:51
  This is probably gonna be a rough year but not a catastrophic year.
• 8:55
  2018 to me is the beginning
• 8:57
  of cat uh catastrophe.
• 8:59
  That's kind of how I think about it.
• 9:01
  Um,
• 9:01
  and
• 9:03
  I get a question over and over and over again.
• 9:05
  Cause I talk about this stuff all the time.
• 9:07
  Yesterday,
• 9:07
  we did a best case scenario for Republicans.
• 9:10
  Um,
• 9:10
  I don't know if it's coincidence that the,
• 9:12
  the episode did really,
• 9:13
  really well.
• 9:14
  I think people are looking for hope and I'd love to give you hope,
• 9:16
  but I also
• 9:17
  wanna make sure I'm telling you exactly what's
• 9:19
  going on to the best of my understanding.
• 9:21
  That's my job here.
• 9:22
  Um,
• 9:22
  I,
• 9:23
  I,
• 9:23
  I,
• 9:23
  I wanna give you good news when I can.
• 9:25
  Uh,
• 9:25
  I don't wanna hide good news from you,
• 9:27
  but I also wanna make sure you understand
• 9:28
  that right now things are not necessarily lining up
• 9:31
  well if you happen to be a conservative or a Republican.
• 9:35
  So let's take a quick look at the predictable
• 9:38
  post office.
• 9:46
  This question,
• 9:47
  question comes to you from a premium subscriber,
• 9:50
  Richard in Mesa.
• 9:51
  He says,
• 9:52
  my main question
• 9:53
  is pretty simple.
• 9:55
  When do I panic?
• 9:56
  I've got money on Paxton in Texas
• 9:59
  and on Republicans holding the Senate.
• 10:01
  When do I start worrying about those positions and
• 10:05
  when does worrying turn into some actually doing something?
• 10:09
  Should I stop adding?
• 10:11
  Should I cut back?
• 10:13
  Should I pick up some
• 10:14
  democratic position so I don't have everything riding on the same outcome?
• 10:18
  I don't want to overreact and sell things I'll regret selling,
• 10:20
  but
• 10:21
  I don't want to keep telling myself it'll be fine until it's too late.
• 10:25
  How do you tell the difference between being patient?
• 10:28
  And being stubborn
• 10:30
  Basically,
• 10:32
  should I already be panicking,
• 10:34
  says Richard
• 10:36
  in Mesa,
• 10:36
  Arizona.
• 10:37
  By the way,
• 10:37
  questions at predictableShow.com if you've got,
• 10:40
  uh,
• 10:40
  or you can go on the chat at predictableShow.com as well
• 10:42
  to,
• 10:43
  uh,
• 10:43
  to get,
• 10:44
  uh,
• 10:45
  your questions in.
• 10:46
  It's a great question.
• 10:48
  It's
• 10:49
  And I wanna make sure I,
• 10:50
  I,
• 10:50
  I say this clearly.
• 10:51
  It is how you should be thinking right now.
• 10:54
  You should not be thinking with rose
• 10:56
  colored glasses that everything's gonna turn out OK for any Republican
• 10:59
  position that I took or any position that you took.
• 11:00
  You should always be questioning yourself.
• 11:02
  That is one of the hardest things to do.
• 11:04
  If you look at the book Super Forecasting,
• 11:06
  it's in there,
• 11:06
  it's,
• 11:07
  it's in anybody who's written a book about forecasting or trying to predict things,
• 11:10
  will tell you the same stuff.
• 11:11
  You gotta be constantly
• 11:13
  questioning yourself
• 11:14
  all the time.
• 11:15
  You need to put yourself on the line
• 11:18
  all the time
• 11:18
  and push your own preconceived notions
• 11:22
  all the time.
• 11:22
  It's,
• 11:23
  and this is why this isn't for everybody,
• 11:24
  honestly,
• 11:25
  when it comes to prediction markets.
• 11:26
  It's difficult to do that.
• 11:27
  You know,
• 11:27
  it's a lot easier to kinda have an opinion and
• 11:29
  when you're wrong,
• 11:30
  you kinda forget it and move on to the next thing.
• 11:32
  You can't do that with prediction markets.
• 11:33
  They hold you responsible
• 11:35
  because you have money on the line.
• 11:37
  So,
• 11:37
  Richard's question
• 11:38
  is a great one.
• 11:40
  Should I panic?
• 11:41
  I'm gonna break this into two pieces.
• 11:42
  Number 1,
• 11:43
  if you're concerned about just the Republicans um outlook for the election.
• 11:49
  You should probably do what the Republicans are doing.
• 11:51
  Remember at the beginning,
• 11:52
  beginning of this,
• 11:53
  we talked about hitting the panic button.
• 11:55
  You probably should hit the panic button here.
• 11:57
  And what the panic button means when it comes to day to day politics
• 12:00
  is
• 12:02
  There's no more holding back.
• 12:04
  If you were concerned,
• 12:05
  you know,
• 12:05
  should I bother volunteering and making a few phone calls?
• 12:08
  Should I bother going knocking door to door?
• 12:10
  Should I bother convincing my friend about this or that?
• 12:14
  Whatever you think is the right thing for you to do in that situation,
• 12:18
  it's time to pull it out of the,
• 12:20
  the magic trick box because
• 12:22
  right now,
• 12:22
  this is a challenging situation
• 12:25
  for Republicans.
• 12:25
  Maybe we can talk to Steve Dace,
• 12:27
  uh,
• 12:27
  later on this week.
• 12:28
  He had a tweet that kind of went viral
• 12:30
  about how bad it is,
• 12:31
  even in,
• 12:31
  in a place like Iowa,
• 12:32
  a place that I have money.
• 12:33
  I have money on Ashley Hinson
• 12:35
  in Iowa.
• 12:36
  Um,
• 12:37
  am I concerned about the position?
• 12:39
  Yeah,
• 12:39
  a lot more concerned than I was a month or two ago.
• 12:41
  Uh,
• 12:42
  and that is something that's part of the process
• 12:44
  that I go through every one of these elections.
• 12:45
  When I take a position,
• 12:47
  I look at it and I say,
• 12:48
  do,
• 12:48
  am I still confident in it?
• 12:49
  With Ashley Hinson,
• 12:50
  I'm still optimistic about that position.
• 12:52
  Um,
• 12:52
  I'm,
• 12:53
  you know,
• 12:53
  I'm gonna look at that and I'm gonna take some,
• 12:55
  I'm gonna tell you some steps on how to deal with this.
• 12:57
  But when it comes to actually
• 12:58
  talking about the election
• 13:00
  with your friends,
• 13:01
  trying to move people,
• 13:02
  doing volunteering,
• 13:03
  donating,
• 13:04
  whatever you think is the right thing to do.
• 13:06
  Yeah,
• 13:07
  it's probably time to do it if you,
• 13:08
  uh,
• 13:08
  want your side to win because this is a key,
• 13:11
  a key moment.
• 13:12
  On the prediction market side,
• 13:15
  I'm not panicking.
• 13:17
  I have a,
• 13:18
  uh,
• 13:18
  a good amount of money on
• 13:21
  both Republican and Democratic candidates here.
• 13:24
  I have a portfolio that is pretty widespread over
• 13:28
  over 300 positions.
• 13:30
  If you go to predictableShow.com,
• 13:31
  you can see each one of them.
• 13:32
  Uh,
• 13:32
  over 300 positions in prediction markets,
• 13:34
  and I have those,
• 13:36
  uh,
• 13:37
  those,
• 13:37
  uh,
• 13:38
  positions laid out,
• 13:39
  um,
• 13:40
  for you to be able to look at.
• 13:42
  A lot of them are,
• 13:43
  there's,
• 13:44
  they kind of fall into a different bunch of different boxes.
• 13:46
  Some Democrats that I think are,
• 13:48
  I'm almost sure are going to win.
• 13:49
  Some Republicans I feel really,
• 13:50
  really confident and almost sure
• 13:52
  are going to win.
• 13:53
  And then as she's kind of stepped down off of that basis,
• 13:56
  you start seeing races where,
• 13:57
  like,
• 13:57
  um,
• 13:58
  you know,
• 13:58
  Ashley Hinson's a good example.
• 13:59
  I think she's favored.
• 14:00
  I think she's favored by more than where she is now in these markets.
• 14:03
  I feel confident that there's value in there,
• 14:05
  but that does not mean I'm 100% sure she's going to win.
• 14:08
  I'm looking for value in these candidates,
• 14:10
  so.
• 14:11
  And you have those on both sides as well.
• 14:15
  What I wanna make sure is that I'm,
• 14:17
  I'm,
• 14:17
  I'm balanced right,
• 14:18
  and I wanna make sure I don't panic
• 14:21
  until it's time to panic.
• 14:22
  And that question of when should I panic has been weighing
• 14:25
  on me here for the next last couple of weeks.
• 14:27
  When should I panic?
• 14:28
  When should I do that?
• 14:29
  And after extensive research,
• 14:32
  and back and forth,
• 14:33
  and arguing with myself and everybody on the team,
• 14:36
  when should we panic?
• 14:37
  We've come up with the day.
• 14:40
  We should panic
• 14:41
  on October 19th.
• 14:43
  Yes,
• 14:44
  October 19th,
• 14:45
  Monday,
• 14:45
  October 19th is officially.
• 14:48
  Predictable panic day.
• 14:52
  On October 19th,
• 14:54
  if things are not turning around a little bit,
• 14:56
  I'm going to start panicking.
• 14:59
  And panic
• 15:01
  Look,
• 15:02
  if someone is breaking into your house,
• 15:05
  panic probably a good thing.
• 15:07
  But you'd like to be prepared for that situation.
• 15:09
  There's a giant tornado coming at your house,
• 15:11
  panic might be great,
• 15:13
  be good if you're prepared.
• 15:15
  I kind of think of it that way.
• 15:17
  Like,
• 15:17
  uh,
• 15:17
  let me
• 15:18
  think of,
• 15:19
  think of what we are facing right now as sort of like a,
• 15:22
  a hurricane that's sitting off coast.
• 15:24
  And where I,
• 15:25
  what I have done with my prediction market portfolio in this election
• 15:28
  is to make sure I am very well positioned
• 15:31
  for the overwhelming majority of possibilities.
• 15:34
  I don't want to take a lot of risk here.
• 15:37
  I'm not trying to get 100 to 1
• 15:39
  outcomes,
• 15:41
  uh,
• 15:41
  and I'm not looking to,
• 15:42
  to necessarily
• 15:43
  take massive risks
• 15:46
  and huge long shots constantly.
• 15:48
  What I'm trying to do is grow my portfolio.
• 15:51
  People talk about prediction markets or gambling,
• 15:53
  not the way we do it here.
• 15:55
  The way we do it here is to slowly and methodically grow our portfolio,
• 15:59
  and that's why we talk about it in a sense of investing.
• 16:03
  These are things that I,
• 16:04
  I've spent a lot of time trying to understand and these things that I've,
• 16:07
  I've been able to be profitable on.
• 16:09
  Every single year I've been involved in,
• 16:10
  in prediction markets
• 16:12
  over
• 16:12
  longer over,
• 16:13
  over a decade.
• 16:14
  That doesn't sound,
• 16:15
  that's not how gambling works.
• 16:16
  I mean,
• 16:16
  I don't know,
• 16:17
  maybe for certain like high-level uh poker players,
• 16:19
  it works that way,
• 16:20
  but I gotta be honest with you.
• 16:21
  I'm not high level,
• 16:22
  uh,
• 16:22
  you know,
• 16:23
  I'm just a normal guy who really is interested in this stuff
• 16:26
  and really wants to understand it.
• 16:27
  So,
• 16:28
  that's why we've,
• 16:29
  we've been able to,
• 16:30
  to,
• 16:30
  uh,
• 16:31
  to put the website together and try to guide you through this process.
• 16:34
  But when you have a black swan type of event,
• 16:38
  You have to start preparing for that.
• 16:40
  When you have a situation where there's
• 16:41
  a hurricane offshore and they're telling you,
• 16:43
  hey,
• 16:44
  by the way,
• 16:44
  I know you live on the beach.
• 16:46
  A hurricane's forming offshore,
• 16:48
  does that mean you,
• 16:49
  you know,
• 16:50
  uh,
• 16:51
  run for the hills?
• 16:52
  Does that mean you take the car and you go,
• 16:54
  uh,
• 16:54
  uh,
• 16:54
  drive inland?
• 16:55
  It might be that point.
• 16:58
  But it's not necessarily that point right now.
• 17:00
  A lot of the positions that we've taken,
• 17:02
  I'm still
• 17:03
  completely confident,
• 17:04
  uh,
• 17:04
  in,
• 17:05
  and I feel confident about.
• 17:07
  One of the reasons why I took those positions
• 17:09
  was because there was a massive shield.
• 17:13
  I wasn't taking,
• 17:14
  uh,
• 17:14
  I mean,
• 17:14
  there's a few that I,
• 17:15
  I play with,
• 17:16
  but like,
• 17:16
  I'm not taking,
• 17:17
  I'm not the,
• 17:17
  the mass majority
• 17:19
  of my portfolio are not elections
• 17:22
  where,
• 17:22
  uh,
• 17:23
  I think it's 50 or 51-49 chance that we're gonna win.
• 17:26
  I'll,
• 17:26
  I'll dabble in those markets.
• 17:28
  But I don't put a ton of my money in those markets because I want to,
• 17:31
  uh,
• 17:32
  be at a place where I can be,
• 17:33
  uh,
• 17:34
  profitable overall,
• 17:35
  and I might miss one of those.
• 17:36
  I might miss more than one of those.
• 17:38
  So I prepare myself by taking things with massive cushions,
• 17:42
  right?
• 17:42
  Uh,
• 17:43
  if I think it's a 10 point victory for one candidate or the other,
• 17:46
  Uh,
• 17:47
  I'm comfortable maybe being there
• 17:49
  because even if,
• 17:50
  uh,
• 17:51
  I'm wrong on the election or there's a big,
• 17:53
  uh,
• 17:53
  movement towards the other candidate,
• 17:55
  I'm still winning by 2,
• 17:56
  right?
• 17:57
  And I'm fine with that.
• 17:58
  It's a nice big margin.
• 18:00
  I have a lot of those positions,
• 18:01
  some of those,
• 18:03
  I'm starting to get a little nervous about.
• 18:05
  And how do you prepare yourself and how do you shield yourself for what could be,
• 18:09
  could be a hurricane
• 18:11
  forming off of our shores?
• 18:13
  Do you
• 18:14
  board up your windows right now?
• 18:15
  I say no.
• 18:17
  Do you panic right now?
• 18:18
  I say no.
• 18:20
  Panic Day is October 19th.
• 18:22
  When we come back on that Monday,
• 18:24
  I will tell you whether I think it's time to panic or not.
• 18:26
  And we may be there or we may not be there,
• 18:28
  but between now and then,
• 18:30
  there are tons of,
• 18:31
  let's say,
• 18:32
  debates,
• 18:33
  massive events
• 18:34
  that could shape
• 18:35
  the elections.
• 18:36
  We're gonna look at those and see what happens.
• 18:38
  We're gonna watch the polls,
• 18:39
  we're gonna watch the data,
• 18:40
  we're gonna see
• 18:41
  if Republicans.
• 18:43
  Do what our kind of thesis statement,
• 18:45
  uh,
• 18:45
  has been,
• 18:46
  which is come home a little bit.
• 18:47
  Do Republicans come back to their own side?
• 18:49
  Do they continue,
• 18:51
  uh,
• 18:51
  to do what they've done for the past several election cycles?
• 18:54
  I mean,
• 18:54
  2018 was bad.
• 18:56
  It was not as catastrophic as the things that I'm looking at preparing for right now.
• 19:00
  So let me give you some things that I am doing,
• 19:02
  uh,
• 19:03
  and thinking about
• 19:04
  here as we kind of extend the hurricane analogy a little bit.
• 19:08
  It's important that you know that,
• 19:09
  you know,
• 19:10
  buying sandbags
• 19:12
  is not,
• 19:13
  you know,
• 19:13
  OK,
• 19:14
  landfall is happening.
• 19:15
  OK,
• 19:15
  that's not what we're looking at right now,
• 19:17
  but we should look to prepare
• 19:19
  our portfolios so that we don't get stuck
• 19:22
  if there is a wave.
• 19:25
  So what I'm doing is I'm being a little pickier
• 19:28
  about Republican positions.
• 19:30
  When I have a position,
• 19:31
  um,
• 19:32
  if I'm still happy with it,
• 19:33
  I keep it,
• 19:34
  not selling off
• 19:35
  necessarily,
• 19:36
  um,
• 19:36
  I haven't sold off any of those yet.
• 19:38
  However,
• 19:39
  uh,
• 19:39
  I am holding those positions and not necessarily growing them,
• 19:42
  as I wanna see what develops until October 19th.
• 19:47
  I am looking
• 19:48
  more aggressively
• 19:49
  at Democratic opportunities.
• 19:51
  States that I looked at as toss-ups or maybe lean Democrat,
• 19:55
  I'm starting to like a little bit more.
• 19:56
  We'll go through a few of those here
• 19:58
  in a minute,
• 19:58
  but I mentioned Sherrod Brown recently
• 20:00
  on a candidate countdown.
• 20:02
  That's one of those where I think,
• 20:03
  uh,
• 20:04
  you know,
• 20:04
  I think there's reason to believe
• 20:06
  Republicans are,
• 20:07
  uh,
• 20:07
  the underdogs there,
• 20:09
  um,
• 20:09
  and maybe a little bit more than the markets
• 20:10
  are even admitting at this point or understanding.
• 20:13
  Um,
• 20:14
  I'm trying to diversify.
• 20:16
  I'm not trying to switch sides.
• 20:18
  It doesn't mean that you dump every
• 20:20
  Republican position and get every Democratic position.
• 20:22
  That would be the equivalent of,
• 20:24
  uh,
• 20:25
  you know,
• 20:25
  going to your windows with,
• 20:26
  with,
• 20:26
  uh,
• 20:27
  with plywood and making sure they're all covered.
• 20:29
  I'm not doing that.
• 20:31
  But what I am trying to make sure is that I
• 20:32
  have a position that can be covered on both sides.
• 20:34
  If this winds up happening
• 20:36
  and some of my other longer held positions get wiped out,
• 20:39
  I wanna make sure I'm getting profit on the other side
• 20:42
  to replace them.
• 20:43
  So we're working on that right now.
• 20:44
  I'm keeping cash available.
• 20:47
  Not every dollar that you have in prediction markets needs
• 20:49
  to be working for you at the same time.
• 20:50
  It's OK to have some cash just hanging out in your account.
• 20:53
  Uh,
• 20:54
  Calci,
• 20:54
  Polymarket,
• 20:55
  I think both pay
• 20:56
  over 3% interest,
• 20:57
  which is probably what you're getting in your bank account anyway.
• 20:59
  I should note,
• 20:59
  it's not FDIC insured,
• 21:01
  so that is,
• 21:01
  uh,
• 21:02
  important to understand.
• 21:03
  But generally speaking,
• 21:04
  I'm just getting paid like it's being held in my account,
• 21:06
  and if I hold it out of that account and,
• 21:07
  and I just have it ready to be,
• 21:09
  go into action whenever I need it,
• 21:10
  I'm fine with that
• 21:11
  for a while.
• 21:13
  I'm gonna keep looking
• 21:14
  and watching and monitoring,
• 21:16
  checking position sizes.
• 21:18
  Liking a position,
• 21:19
  liking a candidate,
• 21:20
  is different
• 21:22
  than
• 21:23
  saying I like this candidate at this size.
• 21:26
  If the biggest thing that you own is a race that's gone negative by a bunch of percent,
• 21:32
  and it's going the wrong direction,
• 21:34
  it might be worth trimming some of that position.
• 21:36
  That might not necessarily mean you've lost faith in that candidate,
• 21:39
  and it might mean you take many losses here and there
• 21:42
  to accomplish that goal,
• 21:43
  but you wanna minimize your exposure
• 21:45
  when
• 21:46
  needed.
• 21:47
  Um,
• 21:47
  uh,
• 21:47
  you know,
• 21:47
  I haven't done that yet,
• 21:48
  as I said,
• 21:49
  I,
• 21:49
  that is something that I will look at doing here in the coming weeks
• 21:53
  if this continues to go this way.
• 21:54
  And October 19th will be one of those times I'll be looking at that closely,
• 21:57
  cause October 19th
• 21:59
  is predictable panic day.
• 22:02
  Uh
• 22:04
  Make sure,
• 22:04
  one of the things that,
• 22:05
  and this happens all the time,
• 22:06
  these markets are correlated,
• 22:08
  OK?
• 22:09
  If
• 22:10
  one Democratic state winds up being better and,
• 22:12
  you know,
• 22:12
  Democrats outperform themselves there,
• 22:14
  usually what that means is they outperform themselves in other places as well.
• 22:17
  Same thing with Republicans.
• 22:18
  If Republicans wind up doing well,
• 22:20
  uh,
• 22:20
  you might wind up having a correlated move.
• 22:23
  This is the type of thing that,
• 22:24
  uh,
• 22:25
  Kamala Harris supporters got caught up in.
• 22:26
  We're like,
• 22:27
  well,
• 22:27
  there's 7 swing states,
• 22:28
  we're not gonna lose all 7.
• 22:29
  Well,
• 22:29
  if you're gonna lose one,
• 22:31
  the chances are you probably are gonna lose 56 or 7 of them,
• 22:34
  right?
• 22:34
  Because,
• 22:35
  uh,
• 22:35
  you know,
• 22:36
  the,
• 22:36
  these states move together,
• 22:37
  the environment is what it is.
• 22:39
  Usually there's not an even split 4 to 3.
• 22:42
  Um,
• 22:42
  so when you're looking at your,
• 22:43
  at your markets,
• 22:44
  look at it and say,
• 22:45
  well,
• 22:45
  wait a minute,
• 22:46
  if,
• 22:46
  if this moves one way,
• 22:47
  am I gonna get wiped out on everything
• 22:49
  that I have?
• 22:51
  I look at that all the time.
• 22:52
  Uh,
• 22:52
  I'll run that through,
• 22:53
  you know,
• 22:53
  spreadsheets and stuff.
• 22:54
  Maybe we'll create a tool that will help you do this.
• 22:56
  I,
• 22:56
  I,
• 22:56
  I,
• 22:56
  I've had one,
• 22:57
  I've been playing with one recently.
• 22:58
  That I,
• 22:59
  you know,
• 22:59
  kind of made up on my own for my own stuff.
• 23:01
  And I look at it and I say,
• 23:02
  well,
• 23:02
  you know,
• 23:03
  if this is a catastrophic outcome and everything above 70% for Republicans loses,
• 23:07
  what does my portfolio look like?
• 23:09
  And,
• 23:10
  uh,
• 23:10
  you know,
• 23:11
  if,
• 23:11
  if that looks really scary to you,
• 23:12
  I've,
• 23:12
  I've tried to hedge a lot of that risk,
• 23:14
  but if that looks really scary to you,
• 23:15
  you might want to look at that.
• 23:16
  Um,
• 23:16
  there's a bunch,
• 23:17
  there's a few other ones here,
• 23:18
  but I think that's enough.
• 23:18
  I've,
• 23:18
  I've hit you with enough stuff.
• 23:19
  Let me hit you,
• 23:20
  uh,
• 23:20
  with a couple more things before we,
• 23:21
  uh,
• 23:22
  take a break.
• 23:23
  Uh,
• 23:23
  bring up the,
• 23:23
  uh,
• 23:24
  the midterms hub here,
• 23:25
  uh,
• 23:25
  the Calci midterms hub if you can.
• 23:27
  This is what the Calci midterms hub looks for.
• 23:29
  This is all the prediction market prices for all the states
• 23:31
  on a handy dandy map.
• 23:32
  They've done a nice job laying that out.
• 23:34
  Uh,
• 23:35
  thank you to our friends at Calci.
• 23:37
  Um,
• 23:37
  the Calci midterms hub,
• 23:38
  let me see the map here,
• 23:39
  uh,
• 23:39
  if we could,
• 23:39
  64% chance for Democrats to win the Senate.
• 23:41
  But if you look at these states,
• 23:43
  when I'm saying look for Democratic opportunities,
• 23:45
  um,
• 23:45
  you'll see a lot of them,
• 23:46
  there are none,
• 23:47
  right?
• 23:47
  New Mexico,
• 23:48
  Colorado,
• 23:49
  uh,
• 23:49
  Oregon,
• 23:50
  uh,
• 23:50
  you know,
• 23:51
  certainly if you look over at,
• 23:52
  you know,
• 23:53
  uh,
• 23:53
  Massachusetts,
• 23:54
  Rhode Island,
• 23:54
  these are 97 to 98%.
• 23:56
  There's almost no gain to be had there,
• 23:58
  very little upside.
• 24:00
  But you can find a few,
• 24:01
  a few other ones.
• 24:02
  Let's look at,
• 24:03
  give me Michigan here for a second,
• 24:04
  Adam,
• 24:05
  if you have it.
• 24:05
  Michigan
• 24:06
  has uh
• 24:07
  El Sayed at 73%,
• 24:09
  Mike Rogers at 27%.
• 24:10
  In my head,
• 24:11
  that race is kind of a toss-up.
• 24:13
  I think if I had to,
• 24:15
  gun to my head,
• 24:16
  pick
• 24:16
  a particular candidate there,
• 24:18
  I'd probably lean Democrat given this,
• 24:20
  um,
• 24:21
  this climate that we're in.
• 24:23
  But again,
• 24:24
  27 cents of profit on a 73% investment.
• 24:27
  You're about a third,
• 24:29
  a third profit there.
• 24:30
  It's a nice number.
• 24:31
  There's still plenty of room for that to run.
• 24:32
  If you're looking to protect against the Democratic wave,
• 24:35
  it's a state
• 24:36
  worth considering.
• 24:37
  Let's look at Ohio.
• 24:39
  Ohio is the same thing.
• 24:40
  I've mentioned this earlier.
• 24:41
  Sherrod Brown's at 60%.
• 24:42
  It's up from
• 24:43
  52%,
• 24:44
  53%,
• 24:44
  54% where I was buying it initially.
• 24:46
  Uh,
• 24:47
  it is rising.
• 24:47
  Everything's rising for the Democrats right now.
• 24:49
  Um,
• 24:50
  you know,
• 24:50
  so it might be,
• 24:51
  and we may see a peak here and it might turn around.
• 24:52
  That's why we're waiting till October 19th to panic on these races.
• 24:55
  But Sherrod Brown is one that I think,
• 24:56
  I actually think
• 24:57
  probably will win,
• 24:59
  um,
• 24:59
  and he is a 60/40 favorite.
• 25:01
  Tons of room to run there.
• 25:02
  I mean,
• 25:02
  that's
• 25:02
  a 67% profit
• 25:04
  here in the next six weeks if you believe in that one.
• 25:07
  Another one I'll give you,
• 25:08
  again,
• 25:08
  Democratic opportunity just in the Senate,
• 25:10
  that's all we're looking at is New Hampshire.
• 25:12
  New Hampshire,
• 25:13
  some of the polling is close
• 25:14
  here.
• 25:15
  And John Sununu is a well-known guy in the state.
• 25:17
  Uh,
• 25:17
  this is why you're getting value,
• 25:19
  like 84%
• 25:20
  in a state that leans probably to the blue side anyway.
• 25:24
  Uh,
• 25:24
  it's purplish,
• 25:25
  but it leans to the blue side
• 25:27
  and in a very blue environment,
• 25:28
  if you're looking for something that would offset.
• 25:30
  Now,
• 25:31
  look,
• 25:31
  if this comes back and Sununu wins,
• 25:33
  your other Republican positions are very likely to do
• 25:36
  much better than you're hoping right now anyway.
• 25:39
  So,
• 25:39
  it doesn't mean you,
• 25:40
  you dump all your money into Chris Pappas,
• 25:42
  but it is something to consider.
• 25:44
  Uh,
• 25:45
  look,
• 25:45
  this is a weird time.
• 25:47
  If you're looking at just election outcomes,
• 25:49
  the time is,
• 25:50
  it is the,
• 25:51
  the message is be active,
• 25:53
  do what you,
• 25:54
  you know,
• 25:54
  certainly vote,
• 25:55
  but go out there and do the things that you think can move the needle any way you can
• 25:59
  because your side,
• 25:59
  if you,
• 26:00
  if you,
• 26:00
  if you care about your side winning,
• 26:01
  it is vitally important.
• 26:02
  This isn't.
• 26:04
  I guess what I'm saying is
• 26:06
  there's a lot of mainstream media
• 26:07
  hype.
• 26:09
  And,
• 26:09
  uh,
• 26:10
  a lot of times it's not real.
• 26:12
  This is a real threat if you are a conservative or a Republican
• 26:15
  to lose
• 26:16
  really the rest of the Trump presidency here because once,
• 26:20
  you know,
• 26:20
  once these guys go down,
• 26:21
  uh,
• 26:21
  you know,
• 26:22
  if you,
• 26:22
  if you lose even the House,
• 26:23
  it's gonna be tough to pass anything.
• 26:24
  You lose the Senate,
• 26:25
  you're talking about
• 26:26
  Supreme Court justices and so many other things
• 26:28
  that we've talked about a million times,
• 26:29
  so that's that.
• 26:30
  Secondarily,
• 26:30
  if you're in prediction markets,
• 26:32
  think about that,
• 26:33
  that,
• 26:33
  that investment advice you've heard a million times about,
• 26:36
  about diversifying and understanding other opportunities.
• 26:39
  It is important.
• 26:40
  Take,
• 26:41
  look back at those steps that we just went through.
• 26:43
  Take a moment,
• 26:44
  look at your portfolio,
• 26:45
  don't freak out.
• 26:46
  You got plenty of,
• 26:46
  you got till October 9th before predictable panic day.
• 26:49
  Don't freak out.
• 26:49
  Just look at those things,
• 26:51
  look for those opportunities,
• 26:52
  and take a time to maybe rebalance or at least understand what your balance is,
• 26:56
  cause a lot of times you get stuff in there and you don't even realize.
• 26:59
  Take that time now.
• 27:00
  Things are gonna change,
• 27:01
  things will move,
• 27:02
  but you still have time
• 27:03
  before it is time
• 27:05
  to hit
• 27:05
  the panic button.
• 27:26
  We are 41 days away from the election and we do a different candidate
• 27:31
  in a different race every day that we like that we think is a uh
• 27:35
  worth your consideration for potential prediction market investment,
• 27:39
  uh,
• 27:39
  and
• 27:40
  kind of building on the theme today.
• 27:41
  I,
• 27:41
  I mentioned look for um some Democrats that you think might have
• 27:46
  uh a little bit of uh uh
• 27:48
  of upside
• 27:49
  to begin taking a position on to to to measure it as we go.
• 27:53
  Um,
• 27:54
  and that's one of the ways that I'm kind of
• 27:55
  trying to prepare myself for what might happen here in,
• 27:58
  in a few weeks.
• 27:59
  Uh,
• 27:59
  so our candidate today,
• 28:00
  41 days until the election,
• 28:04
  and,
• 28:04
  uh,
• 28:04
  our candidate today comes from the.
• 28:08
  From the north,
• 28:09
  yes,
• 28:09
  it is Mary Peltola.
• 28:11
  She is a Democrat from Alaska
• 28:14
  running for Senate against Dan Sullivan,
• 28:16
  the Republican
• 28:17
  there.
• 28:18
  Now the candidate countdown does not mean that I
• 28:20
  like the candidate or want the candidate to win.
• 28:22
  That is not what we do here.
• 28:24
  Um,
• 28:24
  I will tell you
• 28:26
  what my preference is,
• 28:27
  and I will say my preference is certainly would be Republican control of the Senate.
• 28:31
  Mary Peltola though is a pretty good candidate in Alaska.
• 28:34
  And uh this is a real danger.
• 28:36
  You might say Alaska.
• 28:37
  Come on,
• 28:38
  that's crazy.
• 28:39
  Republicans always win in Alaska,
• 28:41
  right?
• 28:42
  Well,
• 28:43
  recently I've done well,
• 28:44
  particularly in presidential,
• 28:45
  uh,
• 28:45
  elections.
• 28:46
  Uh,
• 28:46
  we're gonna get into the details here in a minute,
• 28:47
  but I wanna show you the polling as of late,
• 28:49
  and you might look at this and say,
• 28:50
  OK,
• 28:50
  well,
• 28:50
  there's some good polling here for
• 28:52
  Sullivan,
• 28:52
  and that's true.
• 28:53
  This is not a,
• 28:54
  uh,
• 28:54
  a definite,
• 28:54
  I would say,
• 28:56
  um,
• 28:56
  as far as,
• 28:57
  uh,
• 28:57
  I mean,
• 28:57
  Dan Sullivan has a shot to win this race.
• 29:00
  There's a lot of asterisks by it.
• 29:01
  I'm gonna go through this in a minute.
• 29:02
  Here's the polling.
• 29:03
  Um,
• 29:03
  most recent poll from coefficient does have Sullivan up by 2.
• 29:07
  you,
• 29:07
  you see 3 polls in a row,
• 29:09
  the Times broke them out that way,
• 29:10
  but it's the same poll,
• 29:11
  uh,
• 29:11
  coefficient,
• 29:12
  uh,
• 29:12
  23,
• 29:13
  and 5,
• 29:13
  depending on how they break it,
• 29:15
  uh,
• 29:15
  out.
• 29:15
  Alaska Survey Research had Peltola up by 5.
• 29:18
  Fabrizio,
• 29:19
  uh,
• 29:20
  had,
• 29:20
  uh,
• 29:20
  Peltola up by 7.
• 29:22
  And then,
• 29:23
  uh,
• 29:23
  Alaska survey research previous poll
• 29:26
  before that going back to,
• 29:27
  uh,
• 29:27
  late August
• 29:28
  had Peltola up by 1.
• 29:30
  The final round thing is key to this discussion here
• 29:32
  and we're gonna get to that here in a second,
• 29:33
  but
• 29:35
  If you don't know who Mary Paltola is,
• 29:37
  she is,
• 29:37
  um,
• 29:38
  a known figure in the state and has already won statewide
• 29:42
  in Alaska.
• 29:43
  Not always easy to do,
• 29:44
  and that's because of their house seat,
• 29:45
  their at-large
• 29:46
  House seat.
• 29:47
  They've got one,
• 29:47
  so it's the whole state,
• 29:49
  uh,
• 29:49
  and she won,
• 29:50
  she won,
• 29:50
  uh,
• 29:50
  both,
• 29:50
  uh,
• 29:50
  uh,
• 29:51
  uh,
• 29:51
  uh,
• 29:51
  elections in 2022.
• 29:53
  She won the regular election,
• 29:54
  so she won a special election,
• 29:56
  and then she won the regular election.
• 29:57
  In the regular election in 2022,
• 30:00
  she won with 54.9%
• 30:02
  of the vote.
• 30:03
  Uh,
• 30:04
  she has consistently in all of her races,
• 30:06
  even the one she lost in 2024.
• 30:09
  Has outperformed uh the Democratic Party by a wide margin.
• 30:13
  This is the type of candidate
• 30:15
  that Democrats love in these elections
• 30:17
  because they're not,
• 30:18
  it's not a run of the mill,
• 30:20
  hey,
• 30:20
  you're running just like whatever the
• 30:22
  whatever the climate is.
• 30:23
  She's outperformed the climate every single time.
• 30:26
  That she has run
• 30:27
  now in 2024,
• 30:27
  the climate was very Republican,
• 30:29
  or at least pretty Republican,
• 30:30
  and it wasn't enough for her to hold on,
• 30:32
  but
• 30:32
  she in 2024,
• 30:34
  uh,
• 30:34
  Trump won by 13 points.
• 30:36
  Peltola only lost by 2.6,
• 30:40
  so
• 30:40
  outperforming the Democratic Party
• 30:43
  in a state that's not necessarily wonderful for Democrats.
• 30:46
  Um,
• 30:46
  the,
• 30:47
  the breakdown of Alaska as far as its voters go is really interesting.
• 30:51
  It is,
• 30:51
  uh,
• 30:52
  it's unlike a,
• 30:54
  of course,
• 30:54
  right.
• 30:56
  You know,
• 30:56
  Alaska's different than the other states.
• 30:57
  Yeah,
• 30:58
  I know,
• 30:58
  Stu.
• 30:59
  I got it.
• 30:59
  I mean,
• 30:59
  Alaska,
• 31:00
  it's,
• 31:00
  uh,
• 31:00
  a really big one.
• 31:01
  It's the biggest one we got.
• 31:02
  It's in,
• 31:03
  it's kind of,
• 31:03
  actually kind of seems like it's connected to Canada.
• 31:06
  It's in the middle of nowhere.
• 31:07
  It's really cold.
• 31:08
  There's not roads to most of the places.
• 31:10
  That's Alaska.
• 31:10
  You know that part.
• 31:12
  But the political breakdown is interesting.
• 31:14
  Where most states you have,
• 31:16
  I don't know,
• 31:17
  roughly a third maybe of each between Republicans,
• 31:20
  Democrats,
• 31:20
  and Independents,
• 31:21
  it's not really like that
• 31:23
  in Alaska.
• 31:24
  Only about 24% of registered voters have registered
• 31:27
  between Republicans
• 31:28
  or Democrats.
• 31:29
  That breaks down in favor,
• 31:31
  uh,
• 31:31
  uh,
• 31:32
  uh,
• 31:33
  excuse me,
• 31:33
  it's 36% total,
• 31:34
  24% Republicans,
• 31:35
  12%.
• 31:36
  Democrats,
• 31:36
  so
• 31:37
  it is a big advantage for Republicans,
• 31:39
  but as you know,
• 31:40
  there's a lot of people I'm not talking about there.
• 31:42
  Over 60% of people are either unaffiliated
• 31:46
  or independent
• 31:47
  in the state.
• 31:48
  So you have a massively independent electorate
• 31:50
  that does tend to lean to the right,
• 31:53
  but not overwhelmingly.
• 31:54
  These are other,
• 31:55
  there are other states where there's a much better case for just general
• 31:58
  red winning no matter what's going on.
• 32:00
  Um,
• 32:01
  Dan Sullivan
• 32:02
  is a senator currently.
• 32:03
  His approval rating.
• 32:05
  Isn't great.
• 32:06
  It's about 38%.
• 32:08
  Now,
• 32:08
  that's a little bit better than some of the polling
• 32:10
  we told you about earlier on in the show,
• 32:12
  but 38% isn't great.
• 32:14
  He's in the bottom,
• 32:16
  I'd say quintile,
• 32:17
  bottom fifth
• 32:18
  of,
• 32:18
  uh,
• 32:19
  senators as far as approval rating goes,
• 32:21
  not toward the top.
• 32:22
  Um,
• 32:22
  he's down there toward the bottom,
• 32:24
  not at the bottom.
• 32:25
  He's not the worst approval ratings in America,
• 32:27
  but he's toward the bottom,
• 32:29
  bottom third,
• 32:29
  bottom fourth,
• 32:30
  bottom fifth,
• 32:30
  somewhere in there.
• 32:32
  Um,
• 32:32
  so that's not great.
• 32:33
  47% disapprove,
• 32:34
  so he's a -9
• 32:36
  on that one.
• 32:38
  he is,
• 32:39
  uh,
• 32:39
  you know,
• 32:40
  again,
• 32:40
  that doesn't mean that he can't win in Alaska,
• 32:43
  but he doesn't have like a super clear path.
• 32:45
  Like it's not like easy for Dan Sullivan,
• 32:47
  uh,
• 32:47
  to win.
• 32:48
  Uh,
• 32:48
  the polling has been very close,
• 32:49
  as we talked about.
• 32:50
  Peltola is a,
• 32:52
  a good crossover candidate there.
• 32:54
  She won in 2022,
• 32:55
  she won in 2024,
• 32:57
  and she's raising,
• 32:57
  raising a lot of money.
• 32:58
  She's raised more overall than Sullivan.
• 33:01
  Um,
• 33:01
  Sullivan has been a little bit more frugal with his spending so far,
• 33:04
  so he has a little bit more cash on hand,
• 33:06
  but this isn't one of those races where you're gonna see,
• 33:08
  oh gosh,
• 33:08
  it's a Republican state,
• 33:09
  the Republican candidate gonna outspend the,
• 33:11
  uh,
• 33:12
  Democrat by 10 to 1.
• 33:13
  That's not happening here.
• 33:14
  She'll probably wind up spending more than he does,
• 33:16
  um.
• 33:18
  If you wanna make the case for Sullivan,
• 33:20
  let's make a case against our position as
• 33:21
  we'd like to do here on Candidate Countdown.
• 33:24
  Alaska is still a red state,
• 33:25
  fundamentally leans to the right.
• 33:27
  Uh,
• 33:27
  Sullivan has already won statewide twice.
• 33:29
  Although I will say in 2014,
• 33:31
  which was a good year
• 33:32
  for Republicans,
• 33:34
  he barely won,
• 33:35
  uh,
• 33:35
  by about 2 points.
• 33:36
  2020 won easily by about 13.
• 33:39
  Republicans do have that,
• 33:40
  uh,
• 33:41
  registration advantage.
• 33:42
  It's about 70,000 votes.
• 33:44
  So 70,000 votes is,
• 33:45
  is a,
• 33:46
  is a note.
• 33:46
  It's a,
• 33:47
  it's,
• 33:47
  it's serious,
• 33:48
  but it's not necessarily,
• 33:49
  um,
• 33:50
  a massive number that you might see in another state
• 33:53
  with that type of margin of kind of 2 to 1.
• 33:56
  Um,
• 33:56
  recent polling has Sullivan ahead,
• 33:58
  as I mentioned,
• 33:58
  some of it does.
• 34:00
  Sullivan,
• 34:00
  uh,
• 34:00
  is financially strong,
• 34:02
  older voters do well,
• 34:04
  uh,
• 34:04
  with Sullivan.
• 34:05
  Uh,
• 34:05
  voters over 50 do lean toward Sullivan,
• 34:08
  so that's a positive.
• 34:10
  Um,
• 34:10
  and,
• 34:10
  uh,
• 34:11
  you know,
• 34:11
  Peltola
• 34:12
  did lose in 2024.
• 34:13
  She can lose in the state,
• 34:15
  although it was a much more Republican year.
• 34:16
  One other nugget I want to give you here on this race,
• 34:18
  or two more.
• 34:19
  One is the system.
• 34:21
  The system is a ranked choice voting system.
• 34:24
  It's a very weird system.
• 34:26
  If you're not from Alaska,
• 34:27
  you probably don't understand it or know about it.
• 34:29
  But basically what they did in the primary was pick
• 34:31
  not the best Republican and Democrat to run against each other,
• 34:34
  but the top 4 candidates of any party.
• 34:37
  And they have the top 4 candidates,
• 34:38
  so 4 candidates will be on the ballot,
• 34:40
  and they will do it in a ranked choice voting style.
• 34:43
  What that means is you can say,
• 34:45
  well,
• 34:45
  I think,
• 34:45
  uh,
• 34:45
  number 1,
• 34:46
  Dan Sullivan,
• 34:46
  #2,
• 34:47
  Mary Peltola,
• 34:48
  3,
• 34:48
  and go through the list.
• 34:49
  You rank them like that.
• 34:51
  When the last place candidate that has no chance of winning.
• 34:53
  Uh,
• 34:54
  is officially eliminated and has no chance to get to 50%.
• 34:57
  They are
• 34:58
  eliminated.
• 34:59
  They get all their votes get redistributed.
• 35:01
  So if you,
• 35:02
  if you had,
• 35:03
  um,
• 35:03
  you know,
• 35:04
  the 4th place candidate as your top choice,
• 35:06
  your vote now goes to your second choice on the ballot.
• 35:10
  And so on and so on and so on.
• 35:12
  Two things about this.
• 35:13
  Number 1,
• 35:14
  there's another guy on the ballot
• 35:16
  named Dan Sullivan.
• 35:17
  There's two Dan Sullivans on the ballot.
• 35:18
  This was done intentionally,
• 35:20
  quite clearly to hurt the main Dan Sullivan.
• 35:22
  I don't know how much effect that will have.
• 35:24
  I mean,
• 35:25
  my
• 35:26
  It's possible it has an effect.
• 35:28
  It's really being talked about a lot in Alaska though,
• 35:30
  so my guess is most voters are not gonna fall
• 35:33
  for this trick,
• 35:34
  but it is a trick and it might pick off 1% of voters,
• 35:37
  and if it does that,
• 35:37
  it could be a big deal in a close race.
• 35:40
  Uh,
• 35:40
  secondarily,
• 35:41
  I think this format overall,
• 35:43
  because there are multiple Republicans on the ballot is
• 35:45
  gonna wind up benefiting at some level Peltola.
• 35:48
  Um,
• 35:48
  this is generally speaking,
• 35:50
  you know,
• 35:50
  I,
• 35:50
  I,
• 35:50
  I hear Republicans all the time saying we shouldn't have the
• 35:52
  system because it always benefits Democrats and like I get it.
• 35:55
  I get why you might not like this system and why you might not want this system,
• 35:58
  but like,
• 35:59
  I think part of this is also just blaming the system
• 36:01
  for the faults of the candidates.
• 36:03
  We all know what the rules of the game are here.
• 36:05
  You've got a ranked choice voting system.
• 36:07
  If you're a Republican candidate,
• 36:08
  you gotta figure out how to win in that environment.
• 36:11
  That's it.
• 36:13
  Play the game based on the rules of the game.
• 36:15
  Don't complain about the game the entire time.
• 36:18
  You gotta play the rules based on the rules of the game.
• 36:20
  So that's another thing.
• 36:21
  And the other thing I'm gonna bring up here
• 36:22
  is,
• 36:23
  uh,
• 36:23
  is
• 36:25
  the gas prices.
• 36:25
  We talked about how damaging that is.
• 36:28
  Diesel is setting a new,
• 36:29
  uh,
• 36:29
  um,
• 36:30
  uh,
• 36:31
  new high every single day,
• 36:32
  basically,
• 36:33
  and we are in a real peak here.
• 36:35
  That doesn't mean it lasts all the way to the election,
• 36:36
  but right now it's a real thing.
• 36:38
  The other thing about this is,
• 36:40
  there is no state in our union that is more dependent on diesel fuel
• 36:44
  than Alaska.
• 36:46
  Let me show you this map,
• 36:46
  this is from Nate Silver,
• 36:48
  he points this,
• 36:48
  I don't think he made this point on Alaska here,
• 36:50
  but Alaska is the highest,
• 36:52
  70%.
• 36:54
  Dependence
• 36:55
  on diesel as opposed to just regular
• 36:57
  gasoline.
• 36:58
  Now,
• 36:58
  of course,
• 36:58
  that makes sense,
• 36:59
  a lot of long hauls in Alaska,
• 37:01
  but that is a massive,
• 37:02
  massive deal,
• 37:03
  and they're facing the,
• 37:05
  they already deal with really high prices in Alaska.
• 37:07
  They're dealing with even more of that right now.
• 37:09
  Scottylicious,
• 37:10
  he's been on the show,
• 37:10
  he's made multiple millions of dollars in prediction markets.
• 37:13
  He's on this race
• 37:14
  as well.
• 37:14
  It's another indicator that it might be a good one.
• 37:16
  Uh,
• 37:16
  he says,
• 37:17
  here's why
• 37:17
  Team Scott Elicious bought a boatload of Peltola,
• 37:20
  uh,
• 37:20
  for Alaska Senate yesterday.
• 37:22
  One candidate quality,
• 37:23
  she's smart,
• 37:23
  proven,
• 37:24
  and well-liked.
• 37:25
  I mean,
• 37:25
  look,
• 37:26
  that,
• 37:26
  that shows in the way she's outperformed these polls.
• 37:29
  Uh,
• 37:30
  and she's outperformed the Democratic Party multiple times.
• 37:32
  2,
• 37:32
  Trump and ours are about as popular as toe fungus.
• 37:35
  Uh,
• 37:35
  some people,
• 37:36
  I will say the media doesn't like even
• 37:38
  actually would prefer toe fungus to Trump,
• 37:40
  but,
• 37:40
  uh,
• 37:40
  you see his point here,
• 37:41
  approval ratings not looking so good.
• 37:43
  Uh,
• 37:43
  romped in the debate.
• 37:45
  Actually see the debate,
• 37:45
  uh,
• 37:46
  so I'll have to take his word for that.
• 37:47
  Independents love her.
• 37:48
  That's very true in Alaska,
• 37:50
  and blue wave price discovery is incoming,
• 37:52
  and you're kind of seeing that in the market.
• 37:54
  You can see the blue wave price discovery incoming in this market.
• 37:56
  Let me show it to you real quick before we
• 37:57
  take a break because we got another segment to do.
• 37:59
  But you see,
• 38:00
  this market is climbing.
• 38:02
  Uh,
• 38:02
  we are seeing this,
• 38:03
  uh,
• 38:03
  go up.
• 38:04
  Mary,
• 38:04
  Mary Peltola is at 78%.
• 38:07
  I don't know what I think the right percentage is.
• 38:09
  I think there's a good chance she wins,
• 38:10
  and,
• 38:10
  and gun to my head,
• 38:11
  I think she's the favorite.
• 38:13
  I have that race as a lean Democrat race if you saw my segment a couple of weeks ago.
• 38:17
  I don't know that she's,
• 38:19
  I,
• 38:19
  I,
• 38:19
  I don't know.
• 38:20
  I don't know that she's a 90% favorite though,
• 38:22
  so.
• 38:23
  A lot of these gains have kind of come up here,
• 38:25
  but if you're looking for something to offset
• 38:28
  what could be that Democratic wave if you're not positioned well,
• 38:30
  Peltola might be really interesting because I think she might win even if,
• 38:33
  if,
• 38:33
  if these polls turn back a little bit
• 38:35
  toward Republican candidates.
• 38:37
  Gotta take a break.
• 38:38
  It's a little bit long there,
• 38:38
  but we've got an interesting one coming up for you
• 38:40
  next.
• 38:56
  Let's look at a market that I kinda like.
• 38:57
  That's
• 38:58
  mainly because we're doing a segment called,
• 39:00
  here,
• 39:00
  here's one I kinda like,
• 39:01
  which so it makes sense to fit one in there.
• 39:04
  Uh,
• 39:04
  I wanna go,
• 39:04
  um,
• 39:05
  to something that's kind of taken the internet by storm here and one of
• 39:08
  the things I tell you all the time is don't believe the hype.
• 39:11
  That's not a hard and fast rule though.
• 39:12
  Sometimes you should believe the hype.
• 39:14
  And I,
• 39:14
  that's where I am on this particular,
• 39:16
  uh,
• 39:16
  situation,
• 39:17
  and there's a market position that I think is interesting
• 39:19
  associated with it.
• 39:21
  Um,
• 39:21
  you can see everything.
• 39:23
  The trailer,
• 39:23
  Nathan Fielder lives with Elizabeth Holmes,
• 39:25
  makes her cry and interrogates her husband in documentary.
• 39:28
  If you haven't seen this trailer yet,
• 39:29
  now I,
• 39:30
  I will say it's acquired,
• 39:31
  Nathan Fielder is certainly an acquired taste.
• 39:33
  I love Nathan Fielder.
• 39:34
  I've liked him for since Nathan for You,
• 39:35
  um,
• 39:36
  and some of his stuff even before that.
• 39:38
  Um,
• 39:38
  but,
• 39:38
  uh,
• 39:39
  not everyone loves the guy.
• 39:40
  He's a little awkward and it can be weird,
• 39:42
  but this is getting all sorts of hype online.
• 39:44
  Let me show you a clip
• 39:45
  of the trailer.
• 39:47
  You've never been suspicious that she's ever lied to you?
• 39:51
  No,
• 39:51
  never.
• 39:53
  I still have this weird feeling that there's some things that
• 39:57
  I'm not seeing.
• 39:59
  It's because I don't have anything to hide.
• 40:08
  I know what you're feeling
• 40:10
  No,
• 40:10
  you don't.
• 40:19
  I mean,
• 40:19
  it took me a really long time to
• 40:24
  Be OK
• 40:24
  with
• 40:26
  I'm
• 40:29
  With letting someone see me cry.
• 40:46
  I mean,
• 40:47
  first of all,
• 40:47
  it's
• 40:48
  one of the greatest trailers of all time.
• 40:50
  I,
• 40:50
  I don't know.
• 40:51
  I,
• 40:51
  I,
• 40:52
  I,
• 40:52
  I'm a,
• 40:53
  I'm a,
• 40:53
  a fan of movie trailers generally,
• 40:55
  but that's a great one.
• 40:56
  I mean,
• 40:56
  it comes off almost like it's like a creepy,
• 40:58
  what was that Backrooms?
• 40:59
  Didn't they do that?
• 41:00
  I think it was A24 as well.
• 41:01
  Has the same vibe.
• 41:02
  Anyway,
• 41:02
  it's a documentary about Elizabeth Holmes and
• 41:04
  Nathan Fielder is there talking about that,
• 41:07
  uh,
• 41:07
  you know,
• 41:08
  they're living with them,
• 41:09
  having conversations with Elizabeth Holmes.
• 41:10
  If you don't remember her story,
• 41:12
  it's a fascinating story in and of itself.
• 41:13
  She created this company,
• 41:14
  Theranos.
• 41:15
  She became
• 41:16
  Um,
• 41:16
  this massive celebrity.
• 41:18
  She had huge,
• 41:20
  uh,
• 41:20
  not only celebrities but like government officials
• 41:23
  and all these people on her board.
• 41:25
  She was developing,
• 41:26
  uh,
• 41:26
  this technology to,
• 41:28
  um,
• 41:28
  basically,
• 41:28
  you know,
• 41:29
  I just had to get blood tests,
• 41:30
  uh,
• 41:30
  the,
• 41:31
  the other day because I'm getting old,
• 41:32
  um,
• 41:33
  and then my doctor's like,
• 41:34
  you know,
• 41:34
  uh,
• 41:35
  you don't look.
• 41:35
  So good.
• 41:36
  Uh,
• 41:36
  so I got a bunch of blood tests and,
• 41:37
  uh,
• 41:38
  and it was like she,
• 41:39
  they still got like 900 jugs of,
• 41:41
  of blood out of my veins.
• 41:43
  The,
• 41:43
  the concept was great.
• 41:44
  Theranos basically promised you just get a pinprick,
• 41:47
  very small amount of blood,
• 41:48
  and they could test that blood a million different ways and
• 41:50
  you can get all these results that you might need.
• 41:53
  Unfortunately,
• 41:53
  the technology really didn't work.
• 41:55
  It was kind of BS.
• 41:56
  She sort of,
• 41:56
  you know,
• 41:56
  she's denied a lot of this stuff,
• 41:58
  but basically,
• 41:59
  I,
• 41:59
  I,
• 41:59
  I mean,
• 42:00
  I think she defrauded,
• 42:01
  uh,
• 42:01
  a lot of people out of a lot of money,
• 42:03
  at least that was the accusation.
• 42:04
  Anyway,
• 42:05
  she's kind of known as someone who maybe doesn't tell the truth all that often.
• 42:08
  Nathan Fielder there,
• 42:09
  uh,
• 42:09
  trying to get that out of her.
• 42:10
  He's,
• 42:10
  he will sit through every awkward silence to get
• 42:13
  it and it's gonna be an incredible movie.
• 42:14
  The reason why I bring this up
• 42:16
  on a prediction market context
• 42:17
  is there's a couple of markets tied to this that I wanna bring up.
• 42:19
  Um,
• 42:19
  let me bring up the Oscar nominees for Best Documentary Film.
• 42:23
  Now this.
• 42:26
  It's at 79 right now.
• 42:28
  I think that's a value.
• 42:29
  I can't imagine this movie not getting a nomination.
• 42:32
  It may not win.
• 42:33
  I,
• 42:33
  I kinda like the win market too.
• 42:34
  I don't remember what that was at,
• 42:36
  but like I kinda like the win market too.
• 42:37
  A nomination I really like at 79%.
• 42:41
  You know,
• 42:41
  the,
• 42:42
  the critics love Nathan Fielder.
• 42:45
  They love his stuff.
• 42:46
  He's a critical darling.
• 42:48
  He's out there doing really unique things.
• 42:50
  Everybody's talking about this.
• 42:51
  When people talk about a documentary,
• 42:53
  which is really rare,
• 42:54
  it usually does get nominations.
• 42:57
  Um,
• 42:57
  there is actually one,
• 42:59
  a category for this,
• 43:00
  for will it get a,
• 43:01
  a Best Picture nomination that's only happened 3 times in history,
• 43:04
  so it's super rare.
• 43:06
  But I'm like,
• 43:06
  I might even
• 43:07
  put a flyer on that.
• 43:08
  I don't know.
• 43:09
  That's where I am.
• 43:10
  I haven't done massive amounts of research.
• 43:12
  This is,
• 43:12
  here's what I kinda like.
• 43:13
  It's just something I saw,
• 43:14
  I'm kind of interested in,
• 43:15
  taking a little small position on it.
• 43:17
  I think there's good value there
• 43:18
  on Nathan Fielder's new documentary for Best Picture or for Best,
• 43:22
  uh,
• 43:22
  Documentary nomination and who knows,
• 43:23
  maybe a little bit more.
• 43:24
  Back in a second.
• 43:34
  And as we're looking at the,
• 43:35
  the,
• 43:36
  uh,
• 43:36
  live feed of that market,
• 43:37
  you could see it jumping.
• 43:38
  People,
• 43:39
  you know,
• 43:39
  this is why people love,
• 43:40
  uh,
• 43:40
  the
• 43:41
  live stream.
• 43:41
  Um,
• 43:42
  you get that as part of your predictable show premium subscription.
• 43:45
  You watch the show taping live and you can get in these markets a little bit early.
• 43:48
  Uh,
• 43:48
  and take advantage of that opportunity.
• 43:50
  Uh,
• 43:50
  it's at predictableShow.com.
• 43:51
  We'd love you to join us there.
• 43:52
  We have great tools for you.
• 43:53
  Every pick that I have in prediction markets is there.
• 43:56
  We have,
• 43:56
  uh,
• 43:57
  all the states broken down with the,
• 43:58
  uh,
• 43:59
  the PMC,
• 43:59
  the predictable midterm consensus.
• 44:01
  Um,
• 44:02
  it's an election model that,
• 44:03
  you know,
• 44:03
  describes everything that's going on
• 44:05
  in,
• 44:05
  in data and in the elections.
• 44:06
  There's tons of stuff there,
• 44:07
  a million tools.
• 44:08
  Just go to predictableShow.com,
• 44:09
  play with it.
• 44:10
  You're gonna find a lot of cool things.
• 44:11
  If you're interested in elections or if you're interested in prediction markets,
• 44:14
  you're gonna love it.
• 44:15
  We'll see you tomorrow.