Latest / Simply Bitcoin / The 3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Can't Break Out Of $100K Range!! | EP 1329
Transcript
- 0:00Everyone is wondering why Bitcoin is stuck at the 100K
- 0:03range. Well, Doctor Jeff Ross, the
- 0:05world's best performing hedge fund manager, just revealed the
- 0:08three reasons that help explain why Bitcoin isn't $140,000 today
- 0:14and why he's predicting A prolonged Bitcoin bull market
- 0:18going into 2026. Before we get out there though,
- 0:22let's start from the beginning. Of course, I got, I got Sophie
- 0:26back with us. The wonderful Sophie.
- 0:27You guys have been asking about her, where she's been, and she's
- 0:30finally home. Anyways, let's break down this
- 0:33thread a little bit. So if you've been around, this
- 0:36might not be new news for you guys, but it is confirming a lot
- 0:39of stuff that I've been saying on the show.
- 0:41And you know me, I love to confirm my bias and show you
- 0:44guys that my 42 IQ is always on point.
- 0:48So Doctor Jeff Ross kind of explains this as his three
- 0:51burner theories. Essentially, once these burners
- 0:54get turned on, Bitcoin is going to RIP.
- 0:57And the first one is liquidity. So let's play this clip.
- 1:01We'll talk about it. And then I got a couple more
- 1:04clips. We'll explain what all three
- 1:05are. Bitcoin itself is the great
- 1:08absorber of liquidity and it's literally the inverse of Fiat
- 1:12currency. So if, if Fiat currency is
- 1:14rapidly expanding around the world, Bitcoin at some point is
- 1:18going to absorb that. And then I, I like to break
- 1:20things down into 3 categories. And I don't mean to talk about
- 1:23gold here because there's a lot of gold haters, but I came from
- 1:25Bitcoin previously as a gold bug because I was looking for sound.
- 1:28I'm I'm like Peter, but but instead of instead of staying on
- 1:33gold, I actually went to the next step and said, oh,
- 1:36obviously Bitcoin is 1000 times better than gold, Peter.
- 1:39But anyways, that's neither here nor there.
- 1:42Gotta gotta love the drive by shots on Peter Schiff here.
- 1:46But as it explained in the in the tweet here, of course, we've
- 1:49seen three straight years of of red hot monetary expansion.
- 1:53Now we're starting to see some contraction a little bit, or
- 1:56rather they were pivoting a little bit that there would be
- 1:58some contraction. Now it seems like we're most
- 2:01likely going to see more expansion of the money supply
- 2:05globally, every country around the world, at least all the ones
- 2:08that, well, I was going to say something that probably doesn't
- 2:11sound right, but at least all the big ones are in a position
- 2:17right now where having trouble. The national debts are getting
- 2:20out of control. They're starting to ease
- 2:23interest rates. Basically, the free money has to
- 2:25come back on the table because as Lynn Alden always says, they
- 2:29can't stop this train. And so global monetary supply
- 2:32bottom in Q 4/20/22 and has been expanding ever since.
- 2:35And of course, the central banks are flooding markets with fresh
- 2:38money. But as it says, liquidity is not
- 2:40alone and we all know Bitcoin does move along this idea of
- 2:44global monetary liquidity or global M2 money supply.
- 2:49So the liquidity is coming, but it's there.
- 2:53It just hasn't ended up in Bitcoin.
- 2:55And I do have a clip from the Black Rock CIO later, which I
- 2:58think is going to kind of show us again, another point of where
- 3:02we are in the zeitgeist right now that essentially, yes, Wall
- 3:06Street is bending the need of Bitcoin, but they haven't fully
- 3:09dove in yet. They, they're, they're not fully
- 3:12convinced yet. They're just kind of throwing a
- 3:14little bit of chump change into Bitcoin, maybe, you know, 1 to
- 3:173% allocation into Bitcoin. But once they realize what is
- 3:21going on, and I think the gold price recently is showing us
- 3:24that there are starting to be some panics in the market, which
- 3:28obviously, as we like to say, hey, if gold's pumping this
- 3:31hard, eventually Bitcoin will pump now.
- 3:34So I know you're not the biggest macro expert here, but the first
- 3:38point's very simple. The more money in the supply,
- 3:41the more it's got to find a safe place to park and that is of
- 3:44course Bitcoin. So you get that much right?
- 3:47Yeah, I, you know, I was about to say, I think that it's
- 3:51interesting that these quote UN quote big economies are kind of
- 3:56being the slowest ones to adopt A Bitcoin standard.
- 4:01You see these smaller quote, UN quote economies, smaller
- 4:05countries like El Salvador and but well, southern country that
- 4:12that whatever I'm like. Bhutan.
- 4:13Bhutan, yes. Bhutan, I was like boss, like,
- 4:16no, no, no, it's Bhutan. You see these smaller economies
- 4:20adopting it because they see the opportunity and because the
- 4:24stakes aren't as high. The stakes for these huge
- 4:28economies are. They've literally never been
- 4:30higher and they're put against the wall right now.
- 4:33They're between a rock and a hard place where they have to
- 4:36either accept that their monetary system is not working
- 4:41and go into Bitcoin or just ride the ship all the way down and
- 4:45just like, see what happens. But I don't think that second
- 4:48option is very viable. And I think that it's kind of
- 4:52like the slow, painful process of accepting that their way just
- 4:57isn't working anymore, that a centralized financial system
- 5:01isn't working anymore, and that they are going to have to at
- 5:04some point, relinquish some control.
- 5:06Now, this happened with other industries as well.
- 5:10This is happening as we speak with the information age.
- 5:14You know, media outlets have not wanted to let go of control of
- 5:19the centralized centralization of information.
- 5:22And ever since the Internet has become a thing, I think they've
- 5:27had to, like, slowly adapt. Right now, you see legacy media
- 5:32pundits like, for example, Tucker Carlson.
- 5:34He switched from, you know, being on Fox News, Obviously he
- 5:38got fired, but like to having his own podcast.
- 5:42You see people, Megyn Kelly, she left legacy media and she has
- 5:47her own podcast. And this is happening, you know,
- 5:50across the board, it's, it's only a matter of time before
- 5:55this idea also takes hold of the financial industry.
- 5:59And so it's it's a slow, painful process.
- 6:02You know, the truth hurts and it's a tough pill to swallow,
- 6:05but the orange pill will set you free, ladies and gentlemen.
- 6:07So I'm, I'm just waiting for, you know, I'm, I'm, we're good.
- 6:12You and I are good because we've been sacking Sats.
- 6:14So now let's see if these big economies and big countries get
- 6:21a clue. Yeah.
- 6:22Well, it is interesting that you did say something that I think
- 6:26is probably the most important aspect of this is they will ride
- 6:29this ship as long as they can. And they're in that scenario
- 6:32right now where you're starting to see the panic and they're
- 6:35trying to do whatever they can to maintain their legitimacy.
- 6:38Obviously, from our perspective, they have no legitimacy at all.
- 6:42We, we don't believe that 12 people should control the money
- 6:45supply. We don't believe a small group
- 6:47of anyone should be controlling the money supply.
- 6:50That's why I guess we have given away our power to the algorithm,
- 6:53AKA the Bitcoin network. So we can't trust humans.
- 6:57And this is where we are. We do trust centralized power
- 7:00here to, you know, correct the economy And, and that's kind of
- 7:03what's going on. All right, let's move on to the
- 7:05second one. And I've been saying this for
- 7:06you guys. This is why I think I've kind of
- 7:09pivoted a little more towards the macro stuff.
- 7:12You guys have been, you know, you either love the macro takes
- 7:14or you're like, why do you care about the Fiat system, Opti?
- 7:17Like it's all only Bitcoin that matters.
- 7:18I'm like, guys, we are in the middle of one of the greatest
- 7:23moments in not only like economic history, but in human
- 7:27history. And the economic landscape is a
- 7:30bit tricky right now. There's a lot of weird stuff
- 7:32going on. There's a lot of upheaval, new
- 7:34technology. Of course, the Fiat system has
- 7:37to keep going. It's basically limping, but
- 7:39they're going to try to find some, you know, rocket fuel to
- 7:42keep it going. And so this is where #2 comes in
- 7:45is that the economic condition globally, not just in the US,
- 7:48but globally is in a very bad situation.
- 7:53So let's hear that clip and then we will come back.
- 7:56The second thing that's super interesting is the US economy
- 7:59continues to lag. So that so the US manufacturing
- 8:03indices that have been coming out, they've literally
- 8:05manufacturing has been in a contraction or in a bear market
- 8:08since 2022. So we're talking three years of
- 8:11basically a recession for the manufacturing sector.
- 8:15So again, as I've been telling you guys, I've been showing you
- 8:19a bunch of the different data going on.
- 8:21The global economy is stressed right now.
- 8:24It is rough. And even though the headlines
- 8:26are telling us, hey, everything's good, everything's
- 8:29better than it's ever been, Like, trust us, bro, look at
- 8:32these numbers. As I will break down later in
- 8:35the show, it's becoming very obvious that all the economic
- 8:39data is fake. It is all been fluffed up to
- 8:43make it look like it's doing better than it is.
- 8:45But when you go and talk to your friends and family, when you
- 8:49talk to people on Main Street, everyone knows that there's a
- 8:53problem. Inflation is going up.
- 8:55Our grocery prices are going up, rents going up, the two jobs
- 9:00that a lot of people are working can't pay for.
- 9:02Just the normal things we're used to.
- 9:04Like the economy is in a very perilous position right now.
- 9:09And this is probably the main factor, I think as to why
- 9:13Bitcoin hasn't really started running as we've all been
- 9:16talking about. You know, we, we've been
- 9:17bringing up the Google trends on this show a lot.
- 9:20There's no interest in Bitcoin. And one of my earliest
- 9:24takeaways, and you guys repeat this in the chat as well, is
- 9:27like, everyone's broke. Of course, they're not able to
- 9:29buy Bitcoin. They literally have no excess
- 9:32right now. Whereas in 2017 when things got
- 9:34crazy, literally we had governments giving us money, we
- 9:38had free money here. Now we're in a different,
- 9:41different era here and people are, you know, trying to just to
- 9:46this new paradigm we're in. It's like times are tough now in
- 9:50the Bitcoin world. We're, we're just, we really are
- 9:53just complaining that Bitcoin can't break out of 100K, but
- 9:55everyone else is having a hard time just surviving.
- 9:58And I think that's the biggest signal.
- 10:00People just don't have the free money anymore that they used to.
- 10:02They don't have the luxury and the profits.
- 10:04Now they really have to cut back on what's going on because there
- 10:08is this global macroeconomic problems going on and people are
- 10:13feeling this. And of course, when things start
- 10:15start to go wrong, whether they know it or not, people start to
- 10:18tighten up their balance sheet. They, they start to tighten up
- 10:21their expenses. I think that's what's going on
- 10:24in, in at large in the macro landscape.
- 10:26So #1 liquidity is obviously in our favor #2 the economic
- 10:32landscape that we're seeing ourselves in right now is, is
- 10:36very uncertain. And of course, when it is
- 10:38uncertain, the people with the real investments, the real cash,
- 10:42what do they do? They sit on the sidelines.
- 10:44They wait until they get clear signals before they start to
- 10:47deploy that capital. I think that is like probably
- 10:50the biggest kind of headwind we've been facing this last year
- 10:54is people just don't know what's going on right now.
- 10:57And so they're piling in cash, they're piling in gold.
- 11:00They're just sitting on their normal investments because
- 11:03they're trying not to go too risky here.
- 11:05And of course, Bitcoin is still considered a risk asset.
- 11:08So that's the main probably driver right now.
- 11:11Yeah, that's exactly what I was going to say.
- 11:13And like the point that you were making about how people have are
- 11:18literally living on a day-to-day survival track right now, there
- 11:23is no access. You're right.
- 11:25It I think like, you know, and this has been going on for
- 11:27years. I did some St. interviews a
- 11:31couple of years ago and the I was asking people like, Hey, do
- 11:34you guys save money? Do you have investments?
- 11:36And the answer across the board was literally no.
- 11:39And if it was, yes, it was in something safe like a mutual
- 11:43fund or something that would give you like a 2 to 3% return a
- 11:47year. People are not emotionally,
- 11:51psychologically, spiritually in a position to put their money in
- 11:56something that they consider volatile and further something
- 12:01that they don't understand. Because when you don't
- 12:04understand that, then that's the thing that's also really big
- 12:06problem. A lot of people not only don't
- 12:08have the access, but they don't take the time to understand how
- 12:12Bitcoin works. And that's why programs like
- 12:15this this like simply Bitcoin are so important for you to
- 12:18share with your friends so that people can understand how they
- 12:22can escape this rat race and how this is so different from every
- 12:27other quote UN quote investment. This is an actual savings
- 12:30account that doesn't require you to go get a safety deposit box
- 12:34or take a trip every couple of years to Switzerland to, you
- 12:38know, get a bar of gold that you're absolutely just never
- 12:42going to use in your life. It's just not practical.
- 12:45This is the future. This is what people are going to
- 12:48use. This is how you know, the
- 12:50monetary system is moving forward.
- 12:52The governments know it, big institutions know it, everybody
- 12:56knows it. And now it's just a matter of
- 12:58you kind of learning for yourself and, and taking that
- 13:03leap of faith and shifting your paradigm.
- 13:06And, and I think that that's like also one of the biggest
- 13:09problems is that, you know, people don't want to learn about
- 13:12it. They don't want to.
- 13:13They don't want to understand it.
- 13:15Yeah, no. So you bring up a point that I
- 13:18think about constantly and you reminded it me, you reminded me
- 13:22of it with the those St. interviews.
- 13:24And I've seen a lot of St. interviews of and they're not
- 13:27like Bitcoin related. It's just like asking people,
- 13:29you know, asking strangers on the street to show them their
- 13:31bank accounts. And you'd be surprised just how
- 13:34little people are saving. Like savings is not sexy right
- 13:37now. This is why even talking about
- 13:39Bitcoin is hard for a lot of people 'cause one, they wanted
- 13:43to see their wealth increase, like they they just hey, give me
- 13:46gains overnight. And two, telling people to save,
- 13:49even though it's a tried and true blueprint, people don't
- 13:53want to save. They're like, I want to spend
- 13:55more money. I am not trying to say like
- 13:57savings is not sexy. Thanks to Honestly, that's
- 14:00thanks to social media when? Yeah. 100%.
- 14:03When you see people thriving on social media who are like making
- 14:07a living off of, you know, spending hundreds of thousands
- 14:10of dollars a year on furniture, on new clothes, on vacations
- 14:15that they literally go into debt for.
- 14:18That's the part that like most people don't understand is that
- 14:21like they go into debt for these excursions and luxury items and
- 14:27then they get paid afterwards. Maybe they're taking a risk
- 14:30themselves. Actually, this whole like social
- 14:33media thing is an investment in in and of itself.
- 14:36But people who don't know that look at that and they're like,
- 14:39huh, you know what, I want to live like that.
- 14:41I deserve to live like that. I work 2 jobs, I work super
- 14:45hard. Like why can't I live like that?
- 14:47And the reality is it's not you. It's not that you're not working
- 14:51hard enough. It's not that you don't deserve
- 14:53the things that these influencers have.
- 14:56It's that the money is fundamentally broken.
- 14:59And if the money is broken, no matter how hard you work and no
- 15:03matter what you do, you're not going to be able to catch up and
- 15:06get to these things. And yes, saving has been a tried
- 15:10and true thing, But what happens when you're saving in dollars?
- 15:14What happens when that inflation tax starts eating away at your
- 15:17savings and you don't even know that it's happening?
- 15:20You know, and, and again, that's why I come back to the fact that
- 15:22most people are just not educated on first, how the, you
- 15:27know, our monetary system works and second of all, how Oh my
- 15:31God, that's so funny. I need to finance my DoorDash.
- 15:35Just cook at home. Klarna, your burrito.
- 15:38Bro watch a YouTube channel like on cooking.
- 15:41It's free. So yeah, I it's, it's, it's a
- 15:46lot about how our society is just like messed up right now
- 15:51and, and how we view things, but it's also very much a lack of
- 15:54education, financial literacy. Totally.
- 15:57And I mean, look, everyone is in a pretty bad economic situation,
- 16:03even though the headlines are telling us, hey, it's the best
- 16:06it's ever been when you get down to the data, which is still
- 16:09fake. And so you could look at the
- 16:11official data and it's still showing you it's not good.
- 16:15Even though they try to gaslight us into telling us it's good,
- 16:17it's still not good. And it's literally like I, I
- 16:20think at this point it's like 50% fluffed.
- 16:23So it's probably, you know, twice as bad as they're telling
- 16:27us. So one, global liquidity is the
- 16:30first burner for Bitcoin. 2, the economic situation is rough for
- 16:33everyone. And we make it worse by being
- 16:35materialistic, going into debt, buying stuff.
- 16:37So people basically either are smart and, and holding their
- 16:41capital on the sidelines or they're just absolutely wrecked
- 16:45and they're in too much debt and they don't really have money to
- 16:48invest in Bitcoin. And then the third one here,
- 16:51let's get to the third one, which is as they call it,
- 16:54leverage in animal spirits. Basically, once everyone gets
- 16:58the signals they need from the economy, from the markets,
- 17:02that's when they go in hard, That's when they get over
- 17:04leverage. That's when the FOMO kicks in
- 17:06and that's probably when the Bitcoin price rips overnight.
- 17:10So let's get the last one and then we'll wrap up this thread
- 17:14#3 is at once we get once the economy is running hot, once
- 17:17people are feeling confident in the economy and they're making
- 17:21money and they have money to speculate with, they start using
- 17:24leverage and they start pushing up the price of Bitcoin.
- 17:26And that's when they go further on the risk curve and do stupid
- 17:29stuff like bet on crypto nonsense and altcoins.
- 17:32And I think that's why we'll have a little bit of a cycle for
- 17:34those as well. But I don't really care about
- 17:36those. But I still think the good times
- 17:38are coming. It's just been delayed by
- 17:40several months because of all of this, the new administration and
- 17:43their policies that have created a bunch of uncertainty in the
- 17:47exactly that is the whole thing. Now I know everyone's asking all
- 17:51this whole the whole time this year in the chat self.
- 17:54Everyone's like all right, cool. Best, best news cycle ever.
- 17:58But like, when are we getting out of 100K guys?
- 18:01Like, you know, we've been seeing a lot of predictions.
- 18:03We're seeing the amount of capital that's potentially
- 18:06coming into Bitcoin and everyone's like just get me to
- 18:09like 200 K first, please, before we start talking about crazy
- 18:13price movements. Such complainers.
- 18:16You guys should have heard me complaining before the show.
- 18:18Yeah, I don't. No but for real we're such
- 18:24complainers like we spent the first like these last four
- 18:28years. Like when are we getting to 100
- 18:31Ki? Want to get to 100K ball?
- 18:34100K came and went and now we're at 113 K.
- 18:38When are we going to get to 152100K bro?
- 18:41Sounds just like me. I'm so bored here so.
- 18:44Patient. Well yeah, but people need to
- 18:46understand the world is so messed up right now economically
- 18:50and and Bitcoin is still the best performing asset in the
- 18:56last 15 years. Like what else do you people
- 18:58want Satoshi more? Be a shame.
- 19:01I want more I'm the Kobe meme. More No.
- 19:04I know me too, like listen, I'm human.
- 19:07I want more, more money for furniture and girl things all
- 19:12right. However, however, I think I
- 19:17think we really need to be patient and also like you need
- 19:20to lower your expectations because September is coming and
- 19:24it's not just supposed to be going sideways here.
- 19:27I think like we're about to dump.
- 19:30Wow, self bearish on the show. But it's just for a little bit
- 19:34because then we're. Going to talk about that later
- 19:36so because I said that yesterday too.
- 19:38Yeah, here, talking about this later.
- 19:40I said that same thing yesterday and everyone freaked out.
- 19:43They started calling me a bear. Well, I think that if you think
- 19:46we're a bear, you need to smash like Button and share the show
- 19:48with your friends. OK, keep.
- 19:51Watching so that you can hear us be bullish in like about 20
- 19:55minutes. Literally in a day, we're going
- 19:57to be we're going to be bullish, all right?
- 19:59Yay, give it 10 minutes. Yeah, no, in a week, in a week,
- 20:02we're going to be bullish. All right, so here, just summing
- 20:04up, here's the problem that doctor Jeff Ross identified 1
- 20:08the burner one, which is liquidity, suggests Bitcoin
- 20:11should be trading 40% higher. There's just so much liquidity
- 20:14it just hasn't found its way into Bitcoin.
- 20:16And then burner 2, the economy is acting like a brake pedal.
- 20:20And the result is bitcoins been trapped in this, you know, 120
- 20:24hundred 510 range here for the last, what, all of this year,
- 20:29910 months. And so he was originally
- 20:32predicting a blow off top Bitcoin bull run peak in Q4 of
- 20:372025. But as he said, since it's
- 20:39delayed, we might be seeing more movement going into 2026.
- 20:45And so when the price stayed stagnant, Doctor Jeff Ross said
- 20:48he was like, OK, I need to adjust this.
- 20:51And you know, like any smart person and you guys yell at me
- 20:54all the time. It's like, Opti, you said this
- 20:55like a month ago. And I'm like, yeah, I got new
- 20:58data and I've updated my thinking.
- 20:59I can change my my, you know, my real time thoughts on this show.
- 21:04When I have incomplete data, I start changing it up because now
- 21:08I have new information. So when all three of these start
- 21:10firing again, the liquidity continues to expand.
- 21:13It looks like we're going to see money printer get turned on
- 21:17either like in a week or end of Q4 or continuing into 2026
- 21:25because potentially, you know, Jerome Powell seems to be on his
- 21:28way out and it seems like Trump is stocking the Fed with people
- 21:32that are aligned with him. So the money printer is about to
- 21:36come on. And then the economy accelerates
- 21:38rapidly, which is kind of what all the upheaval is about.
- 21:41They had to basically turn the boat.
- 21:44And if they are able to figure this out, then once that kind of
- 21:47turns around, then of course the coin and the markets are going
- 21:52to get frothy. And then once they get frothy,
- 21:54that's when the FOMO and speculators come in and this is
- 21:57when we will get our hockey stick.
- 21:58So he is now thinking that we'll see a delayed cycle peak in the
- 22:02first half of 2026, which is actually what a lot of the
- 22:06people in the chat been saying they're like Q2 2026 is when we
- 22:09get blow off top. I've been saying for the last
- 22:11couple of weeks that it does feel like we are going to be
- 22:14pumping into Q6. So if we start to see Q Q4 of
- 22:19this year get a good run, I don't think it's going to end it
- 22:23around Christmas like it usually does.
- 22:25I don't think December is going to be the end of this.
- 22:27I'm thinking maybe it's going to be somewhere around March of
- 22:312026. If we do see a parabolic bull
- 22:34run, we'll start to see a little cooldown going into about Q2 of
- 22:382026. And as we're seeing, it's just
- 22:41like it's been a, it's been a weird year for everyone.
- 22:44And of course, Bitcoin does as of now follow a lot of the the
- 22:48traditional markets because the big players are watching the
- 22:51traditional markets and that's how they start to judge whether
- 22:54they should be selling assets, holding assets.
- 22:57And for better or worse, we are still, you know, a tiny pimple
- 23:00on the butt of traditional global capital markets.
- 23:03And so if they move, you know, if they sneeze, then Bitcoin
- 23:07pukes. And so that's where we are right
- 23:10now. But Bitcoin does seem to rebound
- 23:12stronger and quicker than anything else.
- 23:14And I will talk about this a little later because again, I
- 23:18got a lot of Flack yesterday. Everyone's calling me a bear
- 23:20because I was thinking, hey, look, I think these interest
- 23:23rate cuts are on the horizon and we have more information on
- 23:26this, but I don't think it's going to be just like a catapult
- 23:30instantly and we start to get bullish markets.
- 23:33There might be a correction like, you know, right when it's
- 23:36announced. So there might be a dip.
- 23:38I don't know where it's going to go.
- 23:40This is kind of my like hedging my own thinking here.
- 23:44Personally, I'm bullish. We know what happened in 2024
- 23:47when interest rates got cut it, it sent the markets, but I'm,
- 23:53I'm starting to think maybe they don't have the control of the
- 23:57markets that they think they do. And if that's the case, that's
- 24:00the bearish scenario where markets react unfavorably.
- 24:03So look, I'm, I'm bullish, I'm bullish long term guys, just you
- 24:07know, I'm, I'm hedging my my thinking here.
- 24:09So you guys don't think I'm just too bullish on the show anyway
- 24:12so. I think historically, you're not
- 24:15wrong. Every time that there's been a
- 24:17sell the news event, Bitcoin has actually dipped, but then it
- 24:22goes up a couple of days later. So again, this is part of the
- 24:26Bitcoin ethos. This is called delayed
- 24:28gratification, low time preference.
- 24:32And this is when we have to start living our values as
- 24:36bitcoiners, not just tweeting about it for likes online, I
- 24:42think. I think it's really hard.
- 24:45Shot fired. It's really hard, but we are
- 24:48we're we're really living the Bitcoiner lifestyle here with
- 24:51this delayed gratification. And I think also the fact that,
- 24:55you know, it's not going to end in September or sorry in
- 24:57December, it's not going to be like the regular peak that we're
- 25:01all used to. That's good too.
- 25:04Honestly, I think that's good for the stability of Bitcoin.
- 25:08So if this means not the end of cycles but like the changing of
- 25:14cycles, I think that's that's OK.
- 25:19Polish, I think Bitcoiners are the only ones that look, you
- 25:23guys know me. I am as big a moon boy as anyone
- 25:26else. I am a moon boy.
- 25:27I am a I'm AI, am a obvious moon boy.
- 25:32I wear it as a badge. It used to be kind of a
- 25:35derogatory term. I'm a moon boy.
- 25:37I want to see Bitcoin RIP. But I think bitcoiners are
- 25:40probably the only people that are invested in any asset that
- 25:43when it goes down, we're like, cool, I get more of it.
- 25:46My time is worth more now and I know it's going to rebound.
- 25:49So all of this really, you know, is just so you can kind of grasp
- 25:54where we are in the landscape of global markets.
- 25:58And so does this change our thesis around Bitcoin?
- 26:01Not at all. Our thesis is still the same.
- 26:04It's going to go up 21 million, hard cap everything divided by
- 26:0821 million. People are starting to trickle
- 26:10into Bitcoin. People are starting to realize
- 26:12that they can't ignore this thing anymore.
- 26:15So if you are newer, it's still the same game plan.
- 26:19Stack sats, stay humble, stay solvent and chill.
- 26:23It's all you got to do. Buy Bitcoin, or rather save in
- 26:27Bitcoin. Make sure you secure that
- 26:28Bitcoin and just repeat this process and don't dump your bags
- 26:33because the markets are getting weird out there.
- 26:35This is the buying opportunity of a lifetime.
- 26:38Once it rips, it's going to be hard to see it coming back down
- 26:42here. So you might not get these
- 26:43prices for too long. This is the time to buy.
- 26:46But I do want to mention this tweet here or this comment
- 26:49shouts at the Ron P with the $5 super chat.
- 26:53He said the usual $10 is reduced to $5.00 because of the bear
- 26:57tardedness. Hey, I'm still bullish, man.
- 26:59I'm just looking at the track, you know, I'm just looking at
- 27:02the markets and I'm like, dude, I think they're cooked, OK?
- 27:05I think they're cooked. And I don't think anything
- 27:08they're going to do will really change the course of where it's
- 27:12going. One rate cut isn't going to
- 27:14change the last four years. They they still have a lot of
- 27:17work to do so in the short term again, like I said yesterday,
- 27:21this is still bullish. The short term there's going to
- 27:23probably be some pain this month, there might be some pain
- 27:26again historically, September is like the worst month and Bitcoin
- 27:29returns, but hey, Q4 is around the corner guys so cheap stats
- 27:33before we start ripping. I don't know sounds bullish to
- 27:36me sounds super bullish to me. OK on this is.
- 27:40This is everybody with a second property or whatever alternate
- 27:46investment in real estate you might have.
- 27:48This is your last chance to to sell that beach house and trade
- 27:53it for Bitcoin so that you can possibly get a bigger beach
- 27:56house next cycle. Let's go.
- 28:01OK, guys, on that note, like I said, I have a new clip coming
- 28:07from the CIO BlackRock. You can read this clip in a few
- 28:10different ways. But he also said very, very
- 28:14simply, assets are going to explode.
- 28:17We have some new news from the rage around FinCEN and the Bank
- 28:21Secrecy Act that looks like Treasury is starting to
- 28:25reconsider that, which is extremely bullish.
- 28:29And then towards the end, the culture.
- 28:31I, I'm, I'm basically guys, I'm making my case here.
- 28:34You guys told me yesterday, I literally got a text from one of
- 28:36my buddies and it was like, dude, Opti, how are you such a
- 28:39bear on the show? So I'm going to make my case
- 28:42again because you guys must be mishearing me.
- 28:45OK? I'm not bearish on Bitcoin.
- 28:47I'm bearish on Fiat, OK? It's two totally different
- 28:50things. It's, it's very simple.
- 28:52Anyways, I do want to give a shout out to our boys over at
- 28:55Bitcoin. Well, go to
- 28:56bitcoinwell.com/simply BTC, Oh, I'm on the wrong one look at
- 29:02that whatever it's fine scan the QR code and you will get three
- 29:07chances to win a million sets in the Bitcoin wishing well.
- 29:11And I do remember that I forgot to do it yesterday.
- 29:13I saw you guys trolling me at the end of the show so I remind
- 29:17me I will make sure I give you guys some free Bitcoin at the
- 29:20end of the show. Maybe give me a heads up as I'm
- 29:23wrapping up because I might forget in 20 minutes.
- 29:25I'm I'm like a goldfish here, but scan the QR code.
- 29:28Of course, the reason we love them is because they can never
- 29:31rug pull your Bitcoin. They have never lost Bitcoin and
- 29:33they will never lose Bitcoin because they never hold the
- 29:36Bitcoin. Once the Fiat goes through, it
- 29:38goes directly to your cold storage is the best way to buy
- 29:40your Bitcoin. All right, on that note, let's
- 29:42get into the rest of the show. I want to give a shout out to
- 29:51our partner Stamp seed. Is your Bitcoin and cold storage
- 29:55really secure? Are your seed phrases really
- 29:57secure? Stamp Seeds Do It Yourself Kit
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- 30:14into the titanium plate with this hammer and these letter
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- 30:21aren't going anywhere. No risk of the plate breaking
- 30:24apart and pieces falling everywhere.
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- 30:30produced by a house fire. They're also crush proof,
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- 30:45it on the back of your seed plate, the opposite side of
- 30:48where the words are. Stamp your seed on Stamp seed
- 30:52and use promo code simply to get 15% off anything on the Stamp
- 30:57se-ed.com store. OK, here we are on Clark Moody's
- 31:05dashboard. The current Bitcoin price is
- 31:07113,980, a decline from all time high is -8.4.
- 31:12So the price is pumping, guys. It's, well, I mean, I guess it's
- 31:16pumping. You know, we were at what, 110
- 31:18yesterday? I know it kissed 114 earlier
- 31:20today. So hey, there's still some life.
- 31:23We're improving, yeah. There's life.
- 31:25You know what a little bit of progression is good.
- 31:28We'll we'll take that. So the market cap currently at
- 31:302.27 trillion and the current block height.
- 31:32Tick talk. Next block Bitcoin works exactly
- 31:34as designed. We're at 914 and 96914096.
- 31:40So first of all, you know, don't get sidetracked by Pete Rizzo's
- 31:45click bait hyperbolic tweet here.
- 31:50I, I don't know if it's as bullish as this tweet makes it
- 31:52out to be, but this is an interesting pulse check of how
- 31:56institutions are looking at Bitcoin.
- 31:58There's a few points of this that I do want you guys to focus
- 32:01on. So let's check this out and
- 32:03we'll be right back. What do you think the ideal
- 32:06portfolio is supposed to look like today?
- 32:09We're surrounded by investors. We're surrounded quite literally
- 32:13by financial advisors who are thinking about that retail
- 32:18investors who who are watching, I mean, what does it look like
- 32:21today very different than the past.
- 32:23So maybe I'll start with start with the equity market.
- 32:25I mean, the first thing I would say, we're going through the
- 32:28most extraordinary technology dynamic I've ever seen before.
- 32:31I would stay long. Equities, by the way, you can
- 32:33buy Vol. You can buy volatility very
- 32:35cheaply to manage your exposure. And stay long equities oriented
- 32:39to where growth in technology is.
- 32:41In fixed income, income is amazing.
- 32:44You're still clipping 6%. Would I stay five years in end
- 32:47on the curve? I'd still clip that coupon.
- 32:49We're extending a little bit out.
- 32:51And then quite frankly, I mean, there's some interesting things
- 32:53to do in privates, bespoke markets and I think hard assets
- 32:58have to enter the equation today, gold, Bitcoin, things
- 33:02that give you a little bit of ballast in the portfolio against
- 33:05potential for currency depreciation.
- 33:06When you talk about Bitcoin should be part of the portfolio,
- 33:09what type kind of percentage are you thinking about?
- 33:12Is it a 5%, which generally seems to be what people are
- 33:15talking about, more or less? It seems high to me, the So I
- 33:18run our global global allocation fund.
- 33:20You know, we're running long equities, you know, we're heavy
- 33:23income. You know, we're running, you
- 33:25know, in the three to 5% region on gold.
- 33:29Gold strikes me today as a better currency hedge.
- 33:33Bitcoin tends to trade with Vol, tends to trade with the NASDAQ.
- 33:36So we're running considerably lower than that in in crypto.
- 33:40I just think it's going to go up and I think it's a good
- 33:42expression, but 5 seems high to me.
- 33:44But it depends. Where you are in your life and
- 33:46and how much risk you want to take.
- 33:48Well, we'll see on the stage. The big stage, I said, is our as
- 33:51the headline speaker, the keynote today.
- 33:52Rick Reader, thank you Love, love to see it, love to see it.
- 33:57So a few things before we really chat about, you know, the the
- 34:00big, big conversation here. One, as we constantly tell you
- 34:04guys, and now it's seeming seemingly going into the
- 34:08mainstream, we are in the if not the greatest, one of the
- 34:12greatest technological shifts in the moment.
- 34:15And of course, I think it's going to be driven with Bitcoin.
- 34:17Most people kind of lean on AI as that's what the technological
- 34:21shift I think it's going. It's basically Bitcoin and AI
- 34:25gets all the hype and all the buzz, but Bitcoin is the
- 34:27fundamental tech technological shift that is going to change
- 34:31everything. And now the second thing, of
- 34:33course, as he was saying like there's some interesting plays
- 34:36in the market, specifically, you know, all the other vehicles and
- 34:39mediums that that he's talking about, products that he's
- 34:41talking about. I totally ignored them.
- 34:43But he did say, you know, assets are going to go up.
- 34:46Yeah, I wonder why the money printer is about to go Burr.
- 34:49So of course assets are going to go up.
- 34:51But the interesting take of this is not that he said, oh, I think
- 34:56Bitcoin's going to go up a lot or crypto is going to go up a
- 34:58lot. I think the interesting take of
- 35:00this is when he was asked, what is your portfolio allocation?
- 35:04And they said, So what, like 5%, which to us is, is just like
- 35:08laughable. You're like, oh, you're only
- 35:09putting 5% in Bitcoin. Like smart move, bro, super
- 35:12smart move, man. Really, really taking the risk
- 35:15on that one. He's like, no, that's too high.
- 35:18He's like, I'm in the three to 5%.
- 35:20So I think this is a good pulse check of what the big, big
- 35:24institutional managers, what Wall Street thinks of Bitcoin.
- 35:27Yes, there, as I said yesterday and been saying the last couple
- 35:30of weeks, yes, they're dipping their toes in Bitcoin, but at a
- 35:343% allocation that like 5% is too high for them.
- 35:38We're we're talking about sailors saying you need to go
- 35:41150% in Bitcoin. Like what are, what are we, what
- 35:44are we talking about your 5%? And buy some Bitcoin.
- 35:49Like it's it's laughable how late they are today.
- 35:52Talk about how it's in his best interest to talk about how real
- 35:56estate is going to go up. Yeah, boomers love real estate.
- 36:00No, but BlackRock, Yeah, Specifically.
- 36:03Loves real estate. They own all the real estate.
- 36:06Yeah, I. But that number 5% is too high.
- 36:12I think this is a perfect zeitgeist of what Wall Street
- 36:16thinks of Bitcoin. They're like, look, let's throw
- 36:18a quarters to Bitcoin and then we'll talk later.
- 36:21BlackRock owns more than 5%. Like was he talking about his
- 36:25personal? Yeah, I think that's personal.
- 36:27That was that was personal portfolio.
- 36:30Has you know more? Than 5 million coins now or like
- 36:34700,000 coins or something. But again, that's not BlackRock
- 36:38Coin. That's customers buying the ETF.
- 36:41Ever. It's in, it's under black.
- 36:43I get it. I get it.
- 36:44Keys not your cheese. I get it.
- 36:47But the 1% love their 1%. Exactly.
- 36:51Hey, look, let me just throw 1% at it.
- 36:54This is true. This is true, I think.
- 36:55He's lying. I think he personally owns a lot
- 36:58more than 5% of his personal portfolio in Bitcoin.
- 37:01I think he just doesn't want to say but.
- 37:05Whatever yeah agreed agreed they're they got to be
- 37:09conservative on the television. Obviously they still have to
- 37:12think about their reputations and for better or worse, where
- 37:15we are right now is it's no longer you know career suicide
- 37:20to recommend Bitcoin, but it is career suicide to go full
- 37:24sailor. You know, you, you can't go full
- 37:25sailor on, on all of the Wall Street conversations,
- 37:29institution conversations. So they're like, hey, you know,
- 37:323% sounds good. But as a lightning good said, if
- 37:35they all went in 5%, we probably passed the gold market cap.
- 37:39Like, yeah. So hey, baby steps.
- 37:42I'll take baby steps here. They may not be all in on
- 37:45Bitcoin yet, but we'll take, we'll take a little bit of their
- 37:49capital and then, you know, pump our bags a little bit.
- 37:51Hey, I'm, I'm OK with this. Bitcoin's for enemies.
- 37:52You know, I'm I, I love rich people as long as they buy
- 37:56Bitcoin. I love Bitcoin billionaires. 100
- 38:00percent, 50% is too low. Selling Opti as the video was
- 38:05going. I love it when billionaires know
- 38:07something that I already knew. It's like we frame the
- 38:11billionaires guys like we did it.
- 38:14Well, it also on the flip side, just shows that either one,
- 38:18billionaires aren't as smart as people make them out to be.
- 38:22Like they're no different than than we are.
- 38:24They just understand something of the market that other people
- 38:27didn't. And of course just kept going a
- 38:29long time when we're persistent about it.
- 38:31Or, you know, blowing up my own ego here.
- 38:33Maybe we're a lot smarter than we say we are.
- 38:36Maybe you, maybe I don't have a 42 IQ.
- 38:38Now that's that's a lie. We all know.
- 38:40We all know I do have a 42 IQ but hey.
- 38:42Stop telling people you're smart off.
- 38:44Dude, yeah, that let's not. We're gonna.
- 38:46Get put on the list. Yeah, exactly.
- 38:50I'm not smart. I'm I literally have a 42 IQ.
- 38:55So don't don't take financial advice for me.
- 38:57I'm just a guy that covers Bitcoin news, you know, and I
- 39:00love this. So anyways, let's keep this
- 39:03moving. We have an interesting story
- 39:04before I make my case that I think I, I think the markets are
- 39:09in for a little trouble guys. But news first.
- 39:13We're we're seeing some potential reform around the Bank
- 39:17Secrecy Act, which would be I, I would say incredible here.
- 39:20So let's let's cover that and then and then we'll have a
- 39:23little fun at the end of the show.
- 39:26I want to give a shout out to our partner Let In, the leader
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- 39:47that there are no monthly payments and you could pay back
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- 40:04Go to learn dot leaden dot IO simply today and you'll get .25%
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- 41:0415% off anything on the store. Sorry guys, storm just hit us.
- 41:19Storm. It literally just hit us.
- 41:20So sunny. Like 2 seconds ago it was like a
- 41:24beautiful day and now? Yeah, so, hey, if if, if
- 41:28electricity pops off, you know why I think we'll be good.
- 41:31No, it hasn't. But I keep warning them because
- 41:33it it's just dumping and I'm like, OK, let's hope the like,
- 41:36let's hope the show last anyways, All right, so first of
- 41:41all, shout out the rage. I've been hyping up the rage for
- 41:44a minute. They've been doing incredible
- 41:46work in regards to privacy in the Bitcoin space and then
- 41:51further in the traditional financial markets.
- 41:53And so their latest report dropping this morning is this
- 41:56very interesting story. So treasury is working on Bank
- 42:01Secrecy Act reform Fin Cen director says And again, you
- 42:06know, Lola, I, I, I'm pretty sure this is Lola who writes
- 42:09this stuff. She is a how do I say this very
- 42:13flamboyant in her writing and has a a very strong bias, which
- 42:18I personally love. You may not like this because
- 42:22you want a journalist that is quote UN quote more unbiased,
- 42:25but personally, I I love her journalism.
- 42:27So the subtitle is, while she has no idea how many PSA reports
- 42:32have led to arrest, reevaluating the Bank Secrecy Act to improve
- 42:36efficiency is, quote, key objective for this
- 42:38administration. And she goes on, banks hate it,
- 42:41businesses hate it, the people hate it.
- 42:42And increasingly, lawmakers are beginning to hate it too.
- 42:45The Bank Secrecy Act placing broad reporting requirements on
- 42:48financial institutions, causing them to collect anything from
- 42:51your birthday, to quote, suspicious transactions.
- 42:55The BSA, the Bank Secrecy Act has first and foremost been a
- 42:58complete failure in curbing financial crime.
- 43:01While the Bank Secrecy Act is by far not the only piece of
- 43:04legislation signed into law by the ultimate illiterate Richard
- 43:07Nixon that's managed to screw up our financial system 55 years
- 43:11into the future, his other most prominent achievement was, of
- 43:14course, ending the gold standard.
- 43:16It's it is likely the most annoying one, at least for
- 43:18banks, businesses, and anyone trying to access their finances,
- 43:22and should be respectively ended.
- 43:29Let's let's go there. So now the Treasury is actively
- 43:33looking into reforming the Bank Secrecy Act.
- 43:36They said in yesterday's hearing on the evaluation of the
- 43:39Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, Vincent, that took
- 43:42place before the GOP Financial Service Committee.
- 43:45So apparently only 5% of the filed Bank Secrecy Act reports
- 43:49accessed by law enforcement in nine years.
- 43:51So it was meant to discuss the history and impact of the Bank
- 43:55Secrecy Act to assess these tools.
- 43:57The big question is how to do it at all while avoiding
- 44:00surveillance of law abiding citizens doesn't seem to be much
- 44:04of A concern since 2001. Can I just say this is like such
- 44:08a violation of the 4th amendment, this whole entire
- 44:12thing, Like how can you just all of a sudden, like how can you
- 44:16demand people to give you something about their finances
- 44:21that they might not necessarily want to give?
- 44:24I mean, if you're paying taxes, I don't understand why the
- 44:27government needs to be involved in the know how of your
- 44:30financial business. That's just me.
- 44:33Yeah, very extremist take. I don't know.
- 44:36There was there was a very big bill that was passed after 2001,
- 44:41I think, suspended all of our liberties here.
- 44:43Anyways, a quote. The Bank Secrecy Act has morphed
- 44:46into a bloated surveillance machine demanding endless
- 44:49reports from banks, businesses and individuals without
- 44:52delivering proportionate results.
- 44:54Further, part of the problem seems to be that FinCEN is
- 44:57overwhelmed with the data it collects.
- 44:59In addition, the Bank Secrecy Act puts sensitive personal
- 45:02information at the risk of hacks.
- 45:04Congressman finally says. And she, you know, goes on and
- 45:09just kind of gets caught with her hand in the cookie jar.
- 45:12So, quote, we are in the midst of a Treasury wide exploration
- 45:16of how to reform the Bank Secrecy Act regime, and it's
- 45:20being called, quote, a key objective of the current
- 45:22administration. In particular, the Treasury will
- 45:25be looking at reforming current reporting requirements and
- 45:28potentially adjusting reporting thresholds to increase the Bank
- 45:31Secrecy Act efficiency. So hopefully that means higher.
- 45:36I'm guessing, but maybe their efficiency is lower so they get
- 45:41more data. I think it needs to just go away
- 45:43completely. I'm with that.
- 45:45How, how can you enforce something like this when
- 45:48something like Bitcoin exists, which by the way, simultaneously
- 45:53lets you know what's going on in a Ledger, right?
- 45:56So it, it does protect that, it does kind of like provide that
- 46:00sense of security that that the, you know, cops or the feds I
- 46:07guess are looking for. But at the same time, it it
- 46:10affords privacy for individuals who are not committing crimes,
- 46:15which you know, should be total. Like this should be the
- 46:20standard. I just don't understand why this
- 46:22isn't the standard yet. I mean, I do understand you're.
- 46:25Such an extremist. Such an extremist take, Sophie.
- 46:28I was gonna say something else, but I just blanked on what I was
- 46:31gonna say. We can't have two extremists.
- 46:32We did. It Yeah, I purposely scented
- 46:36myself like everyone on Rumble says.
- 46:37No, I just completely forgot. I completely forgot what I was
- 46:40gonna say. Anyways, this is probably the
- 46:43kicker of this, which just shows how ineffective it is.
- 46:46But the director of the Treasury's own financial
- 46:48intelligence unit was able to tell the committee how wasn't
- 46:52able to tell how the efficient or inefficient the Bank Secrecy
- 46:56Act really was. Quote, I'm sorry I don't have
- 46:59those numbers off the top of my head, she replied who asked her
- 47:03how many of the 10s of millions of Bank Secrecy Act reports
- 47:06filed each year led to actual arrest.
- 47:08Of course, this isn't the first time that Vincent is clueless on
- 47:11how effect the Bank Secrecy Act is.
- 47:14So look. It's totally used to weaponize.
- 47:18Yeah, the like, why am I forgetting how to say the word
- 47:21cops like it's it's used to. Yeah, like the police, the the
- 47:25Department of Justice. I'm like really losing it today,
- 47:28guys. Sorry, pregnancy brain is like
- 47:30killing me, but it's it's being used to weaponize the these
- 47:35departments against regular people and keep people afraid of
- 47:39the government and I you know, this should scare individuals.
- 47:44This should be the biggest wake up call into going full send
- 47:50into Bitcoin. Like This is why people like
- 47:52Michael Saylor are like put your hundred.
- 47:54It's not just about the the gains, right, Like it's not just
- 47:59about number go up and like I know we talked about it a lot
- 48:02and you know, it's click baity and whatever and makes like the
- 48:05majority of you guys TuneIn. But now that you're here, listen
- 48:09to the privacy aspects and the parts that protect you as an
- 48:14individual, The promises of this country, Bitcoin is actually
- 48:18fulfilling, while the other parts of government and the
- 48:23monetary system are not. And that's, that's really like
- 48:27the biggest reason why you should go all in on Bitcoin.
- 48:32Yeah. I mean, look, so as Soph said
- 48:34so, so nicely, I might be a little harsher here, but I think
- 48:40at this point, if you are a Bitcoiner or you're rather
- 48:43you're looking at what is going on with with clear eyes and not
- 48:48a bias towards Fiat system. And if you're really looking at
- 48:52the current situation like the sorry, the social climate right
- 48:57now and what's coming out of these administrations, whether
- 49:00you like them or not. I think one thing is very
- 49:02glaring to me. And it's just like these
- 49:05institutions, either one have failed or two are designed to
- 49:09work this way and inherently have failed based on their
- 49:12initial kind of proposals of what they're supposed to do.
- 49:15So look, I was like this for a long time before I even got into
- 49:20Bitcoin with the idea that I don't trust any of these
- 49:23institutions. And now, whether they're
- 49:26admitting that there's something broken or not, it's becoming
- 49:30very, very clear that there is something wrong.
- 49:33And is it the what the system was designed to do?
- 49:37Did it lose its kind of way? And you know, now it's this kind
- 49:42of monster that doesn't actually benefit anyone but the people
- 49:46that control it. You can make up that own
- 49:49decision in in your own brain with your own framing.
- 49:52But what is very clear is that things aren't working as they
- 49:56should be, or rather, things are not working for us.
- 49:59And there needs to be change. And we believe from just the
- 50:02fundamentals, if you fix the money, if we get a better money
- 50:05in there that no one can control with the better incentives, then
- 50:09things will start changing. And like you said, you know,
- 50:12Bitcoin, it's a pseudonymous open Ledger.
- 50:15You you can check you can check the Ledger all you want.
- 50:18I mean, I think. Doesn't mean I got to show you
- 50:20what I don't own any Bitcoin, but it doesn't mean I got to
- 50:22show you what I. I lost it in a boating accident
- 50:24actually. But, you know, I think for
- 50:27better or for worse, the fact that we have, you know, at the
- 50:33top level of government, somebody who this system was
- 50:37used against him, whether you like him or not, I think that
- 50:42was a huge wake up call to, you know, President Trump and
- 50:46everybody around him that something has to change.
- 50:49And I think that's why he's the first Bitcoiner president.
- 50:53I think that's why he wants to make changes at the Fed.
- 50:56I think that's why he wants to make changes with the Bank
- 51:00Secrecy Act. I mean, he's not perfect.
- 51:03We, we, we're not getting everything that we want.
- 51:06But the news is, you know, mostly positive when it comes to
- 51:10Bitcoin. And I think it's because one of
- 51:13the biggest weapons that they had against him, aside from the
- 51:16media, which, you know, the decentralization of media, we
- 51:19talked about it before. It's super important.
- 51:21It's also the decentralization of finances because they've used
- 51:26this weapon against individuals so many times for personal
- 51:31reasons, Not for criminal reasons, not for reasons that
- 51:36had to go against the security of this country, but for
- 51:39personal and political reasons that if they could do it to
- 51:43somebody like Donald Trump, they could do it to you and me.
- 51:48Don't get it twisted. Just because he's a little bit
- 51:50crazy doesn't mean that, you know, this didn't happen and and
- 51:56we all saw it happen. You know, they froze his bank
- 51:59accounts. They took they took certain
- 52:01privileges away from him. They almost tried to put him in
- 52:03jail. So we got a we like.
- 52:08This is the I'm just glad that this stuff is finally starting
- 52:12to get resolved. My God, what is this?
- 52:15Lagarde. Yes.
- 52:17I don't have Bitcoin because Christine Lagarde stole it from
- 52:20me. Some might say confiscated.
- 52:22I don't know. Some might say it's a gift.
- 52:23It depends on the angle. OK, You know, maybe I liked her.
- 52:26All right. A gift.
- 52:28A gift? Yeah.
- 52:29What? Were you doing with her?
- 52:31That she had to pay. You treat my baby right.
- 52:33Treating my baby right. All right, guys, let let me
- 52:36live. All right?
- 52:37Let Opti live a little bit. Sheesh.
- 52:39OK, Gosh. She's taking one for the.
- 52:42I'm taking one for humanity. OK, I'm doing good by you all
- 52:46right? Anyways.
- 52:49Guys, it's raining so hard I'm like scared.
- 52:52Right now, it's cool enough. It's cool.
- 52:54All right. Let's get to the culture.
- 52:56I want to give a shout out to our partner Hive Digital
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- 54:49IO. Join today where Bitcoin meets
- 54:52freedom. All right, our chat chat's
- 54:59cooking. Chat's cooking.
- 55:01Off to you right now. OK, I'm getting cooked in the
- 55:03chat. Definitely.
- 55:04Not a Rastapute. I am getting cooked right now.
- 55:08All right, Anyways, guys, I'm, I'm, I'm doubling down, all
- 55:13right? You guys think you can bully me
- 55:15out of my opinion? No, I'm doubling down South
- 55:17yesterday. I was saying, look, on the one
- 55:21hand, rate cuts are very bullish in regards to what will happen
- 55:27to Bitcoin. Obviously, when the interest
- 55:31rates go down and most likely the purchasing power or dollar
- 55:35dominance also kind of goes down, then people look for
- 55:39riskier assets to invest in. And whether we think Bitcoin is
- 55:43risky or not, the mass majority of people think that Bitcoin is
- 55:46risky. But if they're not getting the
- 55:48returns in the safe haven assets, AKA treasuries, which
- 55:51now we have new data showing us that central banks are
- 55:55accumulating gold at a higher rate than they are of
- 55:58Treasuries, first time since 1996.
- 56:01So even the central banks don't want Treasuries.
- 56:04They're they're going to have to find a demand for this.
- 56:06Now there is an angle stable coins, etcetera.
- 56:09I don't I don't need to go all the way down that rabbit hole.
- 56:11But essentially what I was trying to say yesterday, before
- 56:14everyone would start calling me a bear and, you know, piling in,
- 56:17I literally had friends texting me like, bro, your take was so
- 56:21bearish. Like I'll take bro.
- 56:23And I'm like, look, you got cooked.
- 56:25Yeah, I got. Cooked.
- 56:27You got cooked in the chat and I got cooked in my DMS, in my, in
- 56:32my text messages. And I was like, look, I'm not
- 56:37saying I'm bearish on Bitcoin. All I'm saying is that I'm
- 56:40bearish on the Fiat system. And if everyone's saying that
- 56:43interest rates are going to propel the economy, it's going
- 56:46to propel the market. It's going to be super bullish
- 56:48for the markets. I agree with it in theory that
- 56:52yes, that's what should happen. But what might happen is the
- 56:56opposite is essentially they can't control the levers like
- 57:00they used to. And if the markets don't react
- 57:03how they think it will when they cut interest rates, then that is
- 57:07a signal of what is going on. And that is a signal of a bigger
- 57:11problem. And that's what I was trying to
- 57:13say yesterday, especially when you look at the fact that gold
- 57:16is going to all time highs. We saw the job, the labor market
- 57:22reform revisions yesterday. About a million jobs literally
- 57:26vanished, or rather weren't there.
- 57:28And I kept saying the same thing to you guys.
- 57:31It's like, look, if you are like these traditional financial
- 57:35investors, if you are, you know, a track fine army over there and
- 57:38you're not a bitcoiner that is skeptical of all the data you're
- 57:42working data. What you're basing all of your
- 57:45investments on is the official quote UN quote data coming out
- 57:49of these institutions. And what we found out yesterday
- 57:52is that what we've been saying for a long time is correct that
- 57:55the data is completely fake. And if these people are starting
- 57:59to realize that the data is fake, then they're they're going
- 58:03to panic. And if the the economy doesn't
- 58:06react how they think it's going to with these interest rates, it
- 58:09could be a panic short term scenario.
- 58:12Long term, I'm bullish. I think Q4 is still going to be
- 58:14great. But I saw this clip yesterday of
- 58:17Scott Besset and there there's actually like a, a good, a, a
- 58:21good kind of response to this. But I'm going to play the clip
- 58:25because I think this is telling us a lot more than just, you
- 58:28know, what's going on in the labor market.
- 58:30So the tweet is if the Fed is data dependent and the data is
- 58:35bad, then makeup cuts are needed is essentially calling for more
- 58:38interest rates. But I'm stopping at the
- 58:41beginning of this. If the Fed's data is bad and
- 58:44they are quote, UN quote, data dependent, then we're literally
- 58:48the freaking coyote off the Cliff here.
- 58:51Like what are we talking about here?
- 58:52They're making moves based on data that is completely not even
- 58:56close to reality and people are basing their investments off of
- 59:00this. It's like, am I the only one?
- 59:02Am I? Am I taking crazy pills like it?
- 59:04It's. If the data is bad, we need an
- 59:08audit. Extremes take we.
- 59:12We need an audit like. I'm sorry if the data or just.
- 59:15Dump it. Just don't trust it.
- 59:16Just dump it. Just buy Bitcoin.
- 59:18We need makeup cuts, but those makeup cuts need to be based on
- 59:22real data. How do you get real data?
- 59:25You run an audit, audit Fort Knox, audit the Fed, audit the
- 59:30whole freaking government. Before we start talking about
- 59:35like making up random arbitrary numbers by which to cut the Fed,
- 59:39I think we really like, we just wow.
- 59:41Like if the data is bad, we need an audit.
- 59:45If the data is bad and you're trading off the data, the
- 59:47government, what are you doing? Audit you in 2.5 seconds.
- 59:51If you lied on your tax returns, they would put you in a box,
- 59:55they would put you in jail. But they don't get audited.
- 1:00:00That's ridiculous. All right, Now, here is before I
- 1:00:04play the clip. I do want to cover this a lot.
- 1:00:06This second sentence of this tweet.
- 1:00:08Obviously, he's got to be favorable for the president and
- 1:00:12look cool. Yeah, like, cool, cool.
- 1:00:15But this, this sentence, from my perspective is, is nonsense.
- 1:00:22So he goes, POTUS showed us the system was broken and now it's
- 1:00:26time to fix it with real data. Wait, wait, wait, wait.
- 1:00:30So, so the system's broken, but we just need real data to fix
- 1:00:34it. No, it's broken.
- 1:00:37It's fundamentally broken. Period.
- 1:00:39Like, anyway, anyway, let's play this clip and then I'll, I'll
- 1:00:43continue to make my case. the Fed says they're data dependent
- 1:00:47and the data has been atrocious. Then it seems like they're
- 1:00:51probably some makeup cuts in order here or the size of this
- 1:00:56month's cut needs to be recalibrated.
- 1:00:58And sure, it could be fixed. Anything could be fixed.
- 1:01:01You just have to 1st we had to establish it was broken, which
- 1:01:04President Trump did. Now we have to go about fixing
- 1:01:08it. And it, it wasn't working the
- 1:01:10well before that the kind of this lazy notion that they had
- 1:01:15dropped down to these low response rates, 3040% response
- 1:01:20rates. And they intuited the balance,
- 1:01:23You know, intuiting the balance is going from quantitative to
- 1:01:26qualitative. We need good empirical data.
- 1:01:29And that that's, it's not easy to get to, but you got to want
- 1:01:34to get there and we want to get there.
- 1:01:36I think EJ is a great person to do it.
- 1:01:39I've known him for years. He's high integrity data-driven.
- 1:01:42The ruthless truth pursuer. Oh man, love it.
- 1:01:48Love to hear it, love to hear it.
- 1:01:50Look, the only real data, the only real economic data in the
- 1:01:53world is the Bitcoin time chain. That's the only real economic
- 1:01:58data period. What the price of Bitcoin is,
- 1:02:01what the volume of people buying Bitcoin are, what is going into
- 1:02:04these blocks when the blocks are coming in.
- 1:02:07That's the only real data, period.
- 1:02:09End of story. Everything else is fake.
- 1:02:11This is why we say fix the money, fix the world.
- 1:02:14We got to get back to a real denominator here.
- 1:02:17If all of their data is broken, their data dependent.
- 1:02:20This is what's driving interest rate cuts.
- 1:02:22This is what's driving the economy.
- 1:02:24It's so close. It's just it's it's it's
- 1:02:27literally insane that it's like, OK, you know, what we've been
- 1:02:30doing isn't good. It's because the data is wrong.
- 1:02:33You know, it's only because the data is wrong the last four
- 1:02:35years. Whereas we're looking at this
- 1:02:37like, no, the data has been wrong.
- 1:02:39You know, officially starting. Yeah, it officially started in
- 1:02:421913 when the data was wrong. And then it officially went
- 1:02:45haywire in 1971. And you're looking back at just
- 1:02:48the last four years as the data is wrong.
- 1:02:50We're like, no, the money's been broken for the last freaking
- 1:02:54century three, and we're talking about, oh, we just need to we
- 1:02:56just need better data and we're going to fix this system and
- 1:02:58it's like no, like if it's broken, how about we just try
- 1:03:02something new? I don't know, crazy thought
- 1:03:04here. Anyways, I do want to kind of
- 1:03:07expand a little bit on kind of what's going on with these
- 1:03:10interest rates. So I'm not going to read the
- 1:03:11whole Trump tweet here again. He's going super hard on
- 1:03:16everyone in Powell. And you know, he actually says
- 1:03:21something interesting here. So he, Jerome Powell, AKA Too
- 1:03:23Late, has done a terrible job since he adapted A2 target.
- 1:03:27It's too low, it's too rigid. They followed data that's years
- 1:03:31delayed. They don't believe that the
- 1:03:32money supply matters. It's like the Pope not believing
- 1:03:35in Jesus. That's a much bigger problem
- 1:03:39than this notion that they are dependent or not independent.
- 1:03:43I mean, like hot take, you know, a little bit of a little bit of
- 1:03:46blasphemy in there, I think. But hey, you know whatever
- 1:03:49floats your boat here. Yeah, but also they're like not
- 1:03:52independent. Yeah, 100%.
- 1:03:54And I mean, I agree with him. It's like, look, let's let's get
- 1:03:57over the charade of it being independent.
- 1:03:59Forget the fact that they cut rates every single time there's
- 1:04:02a political situation they need to control.
- 1:04:06We're just gonna forget. We're just gonna forget about
- 1:04:08that. Anyways to end this, he goes
- 1:04:10chair Powell was was late to raise rates.
- 1:04:12They need to come down here. There's no question about it.
- 1:04:15He's dragging his feet. And here is where it probably
- 1:04:18gets crazy. The feds going to come down
- 1:04:20here. 5075 maybe 100 bit. So not just half a percent, 1%.
- 1:04:26Guys. If we see a 1% cut in interest
- 1:04:29rates, absolutely insane. That's going to be nuts.
- 1:04:33Anyways. Last thing the USPBI falls to
- 1:04:372.6%. Really love Simon Dixon's
- 1:04:39coverage. He goes lower than expection
- 1:04:41expectations, unemployment increasing as if by magic.
- 1:04:45The short term data gives them what they need for a 50 basis
- 1:04:48point cut. Stocks, real estate, Bitcoin and
- 1:04:50gold near all time high. We are rerunning the economy hot
- 1:04:54fueled by asset price inflation. All I'm saying is like the data
- 1:04:58is completely fake. We know that now it's it's
- 1:05:02become very obvious to everyone. We know they're going to cut
- 1:05:05rates Now. It's basically, I think the odds
- 1:05:07on polymarket are like 98 percent, 99%.
- 1:05:10So it's almost a given they're going to cut rates.
- 1:05:13How hard are they going to cut rates?
- 1:05:14Who knows how how are people going to react to those rate
- 1:05:17cuts? We really don't know.
- 1:05:18There's still, you know, some questions up for Grab.
- 1:05:21But what when's the 15th is that Monday?
- 1:05:25Let me see. Monday.
- 1:05:27Monday rate cuts. Interesting.
- 1:05:30Let's see. I I thought it was interesting
- 1:05:33how he said that, you know, we might have to re evaluate the
- 1:05:38cuts like as if it's not going to be enough.
- 1:05:43That's what I'm saying. That's exactly what I'm saying.
- 1:05:46Yeah. If the if the rate, if we see a
- 1:05:481% rate cut and. They say that it's not.
- 1:05:51Enough, and they say it's not enough.
- 1:05:52We're going to. Like, well, we will.
- 1:05:56Well, we will eventually, but the markets are going to, the
- 1:05:59markets are going to take. What?
- 1:06:01Yeah, they're going to take on that announcement.
- 1:06:03If it's not enough, they're going to take.
- 1:06:04Oh, OK, yeah, the markets are going to take, but that still
- 1:06:08means, hey, free money, more liquidity in the system.
- 1:06:12Bitcoin's going to RIP like it's going to be a short term.
- 1:06:16Part of all. This, yeah, it's going to be a
- 1:06:18short term decline, but then it's going to RIP.
- 1:06:20Look, that's all I'm saying, guys.
- 1:06:22This is all I'm saying. He should have just like, curbed
- 1:06:24people's expectations. Nah, they're getting bullish.
- 1:06:27I so I think it's September 15th is the decision date.
- 1:06:32I'm pretty sure that's the date I have remembered.
- 1:06:35And so when's that is that 5 days from now?
- 1:06:38Is that yeah, that's Monday, Monday.
- 1:06:40We we will see, we will see what happens Monday guys.
- 1:06:43So you know, you can, you can call me stupid on Monday.
- 1:06:46Hey, look, I'll eat the crow if I'm wrong.
- 1:06:48If Bitcoin starts ripping, if all the markets start ripping
- 1:06:52and you know, they're they're able to control this.
- 1:06:54Hey, I'm all for this. I want my personal favorite
- 1:06:58asset to RIP as well. All I'm saying is I'm sure a lot
- 1:07:02of people are cautious of what's going to happen in the economy.
- 1:07:05No one knows. That's the big the, you know,
- 1:07:07the big kind of signal here. No one knows what's going to
- 1:07:10happen. They think they know, but could
- 1:07:12their data be that far off? Yes, yes, that's all I'm saying.
- 1:07:18Imagine, imagine Trump, like this entire time, has been
- 1:07:21asking. Oh, he's saying Wednesday.
- 1:07:22They're saying Wednesday, Wednesday.
- 1:07:24A week from today, a week from today.
- 1:07:26Imagine Trump this entire time has been pushing Jerome Powell
- 1:07:29for like 2% cut. And that's why he's just like,
- 1:07:32absolutely not. I don't know, man, maybe what if
- 1:07:37we do see 2% rate cuts, but just back-to-back?
- 1:07:41Look, I'm all for that. I'm all for this, OK?
- 1:07:44I'm. Down for that.
- 1:07:45OK, I'm I'm all for this. Look, all I'm saying is like
- 1:07:49long term, I'm here for it. I'm all for this short term, I
- 1:07:56don't know. I'm a little cautious of what's
- 1:07:57going to happen in the global markets on next Wednesday when
- 1:08:01they announced this. If they don't get under control,
- 1:08:05we're in a new paradigm. To like live cover this, someone
- 1:08:08is saying that it's on. 17th Oh, it's the 17th.
- 1:08:10I thought it was the 15th. OK, the 17th.
- 1:08:13OK, sorry, my my dates were off. I thought it was the 15th, but
- 1:08:17it's the 17th, all right. We might have to run an extended
- 1:08:20version of simply. One 2:00 PM Eastern.
- 1:08:23Yeah, we might have to keep it going.
- 1:08:26Culture might just be real time interest rate coverage just.
- 1:08:32Know that day we're probably going to be like extra.
- 1:08:34Week that should be fun honestly.
- 1:08:36Let's see let's see if starting this next week where we see some
- 1:08:43some pricing in in the market, specifically gold and Bitcoin.
- 1:08:48If we start seeing the markets RIP the only the hard assets,
- 1:08:52then I'm pretty sure interest rates are going to come.
- 1:08:56I I think it's a given they're coming.
- 1:08:58Will they be, you know, hawkish or dovish?
- 1:09:01You know, will they be big or small?
- 1:09:04It's up for the debate, but we won't know in real time with the
- 1:09:07Bitcoin price what people think of this.
- 1:09:10So if it's not good, the price is going to dump.
- 1:09:12If it's good, it's going to pump.
- 1:09:14Look, just look at the data. The only data that matters, the
- 1:09:17price of Bitcoin, it's the only data that matters.
- 1:09:20It's the only data in the economy that's good.
- 1:09:21What's going on on Bitcoin that? And the hash rate.
- 1:09:24That's what I'm saying. And hash rates going nuclear
- 1:09:27guys, so you know hash precedes price anyways.
- 1:09:31Anyways, this is the end of the show, so I will.
- 1:09:35Be here the rest. Yeah, self is.
- 1:09:37Here also, it's literally yeah. Can you guys hear the Thunder?
- 1:09:41Easy. It's crazy.
- 1:09:42I don't know if you guys heard that.
- 1:09:43I don't know if you guys heard that.
- 1:09:46But yeah, guys, we're in for we're in for an interesting next
- 1:09:50week, to say the least. This is this is the time to be
- 1:09:53stacking, but you might get one more stacking opportunity or
- 1:09:57not, I don't know. Who knows oh, there we go OK,
- 1:10:02this is a stacking opportunity. OK, let me log in over here guys
- 1:10:07look at Sophie saving you guys OK, so if you guys don't know
- 1:10:11what this is pull out your lightning wallet.
- 1:10:14I am giving away free Bitcoin. We are over here on our boys
- 1:10:20Bitcoin Well, and when you sign up or when you buy Bitcoin or
- 1:10:26when you refer people to wishing or sorry Bitcoin well, you get
- 1:10:30points to play the wishing well and you got a chance to win up
- 1:10:36to 1,000,000 sets. Oops, wrong one.
- 1:10:39Here we go Sophie's getting her phone out.
- 1:10:41She's trying to take the sets redeem sets and let's see how
- 1:10:47many sets and who gets the sets. So 547 stats and since I missed
- 1:10:53yesterday, I'll give you some stats today and looks like looks
- 1:10:57like we we got to buy some Bitcoin over here 'cause we're
- 1:11:00running out of SAT over wishing well points OK, another one and
- 1:11:03then we are gone for today and we'll be back tomorrow.
- 1:11:07So another 552 stats. So first come first serve scan
- 1:11:11this. This is probably why you should
- 1:11:12be watching it on your computer 'cause we give away free Bitcoin
- 1:11:16and I think also Rumble gets them first.
- 1:11:20So maybe you want to watch over there, but you know it is what
- 1:11:24it is. Anyways, we love you guys.
- 1:11:25We appreciate you guys. Thank you for coming to the
- 1:11:28show. Of course, smash the like button
- 1:11:29comment on the show is Optia bear or not and of course hit
- 1:11:33the sub. Sophie is recording another
- 1:11:37Satoshi tonight. So we got we got content for you
- 1:11:41guys coming later today. Love you guys.
- 1:11:44We appreciate you. We will see you tomorrow.
- 1:11:47Peace out. Today's episode was brought to
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