Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Gambling Recap | Week 9

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NFL Gambling Recap | Week 9 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by Bet three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: is our week nine Sunday recap episode. I am Chad Millman,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Professional Better Simon Hunter, hell Osimon.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Hi Chad. How you doing, brother dude?
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: We're a lot better this very second. We got a
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: lot to discuss because we did not love this week
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: at all. I think the games we chose, both the
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: games that won and the games that lost, and the
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: games we passed on that won and lost, reflect what
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: a difficult, difficult week it really was. We will talk
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: about where we stand on the week and what we
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: have remaining. We'll also look ahead to some lines for
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: week ten. As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: by Bet three sixty five. Bet three sixty five doesn't
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  Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older and present in Colorado,
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  Speaker 1: IIOA in New Jersey, Ohio or Virginia, or eighteen and
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply. As a reminder, you can caetch every episode
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: of the Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like. Subscribe to the
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. Okay, let's see right now. We
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: had Tampa Bay plus two and a half. Wowser, we're
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: gonna dig deep on that one. We had the Cleveland
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Browns minus seven and a half. Reminder, we can lock
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: lines on Thursday. We locked Cleveland seven and a half
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: on Thursday. As long as we don't change any picks
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: through Sunday, we get to keep those lines. We have
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Carolina plus two and a half lost that we still
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: have to go since they minus one and a half. Tonight,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: New York Jets plus three and a half. Tomorrow games
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: we considered but passed Chicago eight and a half, Seattle
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: eight and a half, Seattle plus six and a half.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Let's run through our five also, I should say the Raiders,
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: which we talked a little bit about, but I want
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: to get into that a little bit more. Let's run
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: through our five, well, our three games quickly, starting with
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: what we got right Cleveland, MI seven and a half. So,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: like I said in the contest that we're doing, you
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: can lock lines in at any point during the week.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Simon and I usually do it Thursday after the Thursday episode,
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: and then we review and we sort of decide, Okay, Sunday,
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: do we like the lines? Are the games that we like?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Are we getting good closing line value? The main reason
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: why we didn't change any games today is because we
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: felt like we had a guaranteed with Matt Mitchell's nemesis
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: starting for Arizona that would be Clayton tune. So we
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: didn't make a move basically because we knew this was
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: a guaranteed win.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: Simon, Yeah, And the only real move to be made
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: was us probably switching out the Jets. That was probably
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: the only one. I really was like, well, we probably
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: should so just went out, but this time we wanted
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: to take the best number, and it was it was pointless.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: They were going to win that game and by more
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: than twenty regardless. Should have just changed it. But yeah,
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: the you know that that game is just the classic.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: We thought we were getting a good number. We said
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: on Tuesday, I mean bet at all week, bet at Thursday.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: And I even said if if it's if it's really
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: not Kyler and they're really going to play this skid
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: in his first start against Cleveland, going to be all
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: over Cleveland at that number. So gave out the kids prop.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: I think that on the show he said win sixty five.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: It got a bet all the way down at one
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: fifty one. By kickoff, I think he threw for less
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: than fifty yards or less than sixty yards.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: I think I was eleven of twenty. He was eleven
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: of twenty fifty eight yards. Yeah, picks two picks, one fumble,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: lost a QB rating of twenty and.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: It's not his fault, Like it's just he's going from
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: Houston to one of the best defenses we've ever seen.
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: After they just had a really bad game and uh man,
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: that those are the best bets. Like, even when it
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: was I think three nothing, I was still in my
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: back of mind, I was like, he's gonna throw a pick.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: We're gonna keep getting short fields. And he gave us
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: a couple of picks, and anytime he was in third
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: and five or third and four, it's like, there's there's
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: no chance he's going to pick this up. So yeah,
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: this this week, we had a couple of layups and
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: we didn't take all of them, but luckily we did
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: take this one Thursday morning. We were like, we got
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: to take this number. So nice bet to have locked in.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Simon. People are loving your new haircut. In the chat,
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: you were very handsome. They think they're calling him handsome. Simon.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Here's what's interesting about this game. You mentioned, you mentioned,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: you know, at one point it was three nothing in
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: the first quarter, it was still zero zero, And there
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: wasn't a second at the end of the first quarter.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: There wasn't a second where I was worried, like, oh shit,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: we did not make the right play here. Like I
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: just felt as though the Browns and Kevin Stefanski had
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: the perfect game plan, very conservative. Let Clayton to tune,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: make the mistakes. You knew he was going to make
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: the mistakes, take advantage of the short fields. Like you said,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: it was really a clinic in how to manage playing
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: against a guy that bad. Very early Sunday morning, It's
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: like seven am, and I saw the line popped to
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: plus thirteen, and in my head, I was like, well,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: should I take Arizona plus thirteen. I'm like, try to
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: middle this thing because I got believele In at such
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: a good number, and you were in my head and
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: in my head you were like, why are you being
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: so fucking greedy? And I was just like take the win. Also,
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: unlike you know, we'll talk about this the Bengals and
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: the Bills where I do it, I'm trying for a middle.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: I just didn't have the faith the Cardinals would be
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: able to score.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: So honestly want to If it was PJ I would
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: have been like, Okay, that's that's way too much line
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: movement for PJ. Walker. But with Watson, as bad as
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: he's looked, he's still better than PJ. Walker. So that's
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: just that was a good move. Not too because that
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: line movement wasn't just because it was sharp money. It
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: was because Watson was declared the starter.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, of course, of course. I think you know you
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: said you said, you said that if we had taken
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: any game out, it would have been the Jets, And
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: I'm curious. Don't tell me yet because there's a few
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: games I want to talk We got a little bit
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: more room to breathe her today because two of our
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: games we can't discuss in Cincinnati and the Jets because
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: they haven't played. So there are a few more games
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: I want to review that we didn't do, and I
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: want to see if one of the games we've talked
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: about would have been the game we put in, and
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: if because of that we'd be three and one right
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: now instead of instead of two and one Tampa Bay
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half. This was the game we
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: had the most contention about this week. I would say
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: it was this and it was New England Washington. These
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: were the two biggest debates we had all week. I
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: was backing you on Tampa Bay the whole time. I
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: didn't have a strong opinion about it, but you didn't
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: like my reasons for challenging you on Tampa Bay this week.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Holy crap, I feel like fucking Kami fairbarn who knew
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: that the biggest edge we would have would be the
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: kicker going out at half time. Wow, dude, it.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: Was good and bad though, because like they had a
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: fourth and nine they went for and they got a
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: freaking touchdown on it. It's just like, oh my god,
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: this is what this is what we're dealing with here.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: I mean no, that was pure, pure luck, like we
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: just played the number, but pure luck because I completely
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: misread that thought. You know, CJ. The defense is knew
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: what to do against him. Todd Bowles another dinosaur. U
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: didn't know what to do with the kid. He he
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: set records today. And yeah, if people think I'm like distractor,
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: I look like I'm dying right now. The Egos are
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: playing against Dallas, and Dallas is like they're at the
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: goal line. I'm sorry, we'll distracted.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Are you kidding me right now? I stopped watching the
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: game because of the podcast.
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, I'm not kidding you. I'm dying. I'm
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: dying right now. I can't believe this is happening. But
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: uh yeah, the Bucks is just the classic play the number.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: Shut up, this sucks. Mean chat didn't have fun. I
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: didn't enjoy it. I died ten times that game. That
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: was a horrible experience. Gave up ten times, and we
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: talk of the time. Two and a half is a
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: key number, so who knows how we were going to
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: get there. But as soon as the kicker went out,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: I said to myself, the two and a half's gonna matter.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: Didn't you feel the same way when that went out?
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Totally? Especially Yeah, because Houston had this guy who kicked
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: a field goal, did some kickoffs. But when they ultimately
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: we decided we're just not going for extra points.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: They wouldn't. They wouldn't. It was really bizarre. Yeah, like
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: the case the field goal, they wouldn't kick extra points.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought that was strange. But I mean, look,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: look CJ.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: Stroud, Oh my god, big sack, big sack in this game.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: All right, all right, keep us posted. I got to
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: run through a few stats because is it over?
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: Matt Mitchell?
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell was watching the game live.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: Someone on Hawaii, So I'm in like a five seconds.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Lay Yeah, hold on, nobody yet not over yet?
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: Not five seconds left?
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: All right? Tampa Bay had a ten point lead in
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: the third quarter. At one point it was twenty to ten.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Is it over?
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: No? No, they had a ten point lead, and they
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: had the ball. Tampa.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: They had the ball, and over the rest of the game,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: the team's combined for forty six points.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: C J.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Stroud CJ. Stroud through for a rookie record four hundred
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: and seventy yards, completed seventy of his passes, an average
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: of eleven yards per completion, and all by the way,
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: five touchdowns, including the game winner with six seconds on
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: a drive that took forty seconds to go seventy five
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: yards after Baker threw what he thought was the game
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: winning touchdown.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: Crazy. Now, that probably the dumbest thing I've ever said
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: in the show, which was that the league had figured
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: him out. He threw oh rightwo hundred yards. He broke
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: a rookie record. I mean, holy show.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: He had one of those moments. He had one of
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: those moments in the third quarter. This is when they
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: basically won the game. You can say, like, you know,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: the plays at the end of the game are why
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: they won the game, but the Texans were He had
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: not been playing well. He had been running all over
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: the field, running backwards, flushed out, had n't played well
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: at all. Texans had a third and eleven he was rushed,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: went backwards, flushed to the right, found Dalton Schultz wide open,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: made a laser of a throw converted on the very
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: next play, a gorgeous back of the end zone pass
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: twenty nine yards touchdown. Pass could have only been to
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: one person, which was tanked out. He was the only
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: guy who could catch it. He never stopped completing passes
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: the rest of the game. He was fucking amazing. Here
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: at the stats. First half fourteen to twenty two, one
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty five passing yards. Second half, second half
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: sixteen of twenty three hundred and twenty five passing yards,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: four touchdowns. It's amazing.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was. It was crazy to watch every time
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: he had the ball. I was like, they're going to
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: score a touchdown when they when they kicked that Fueld goal,
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: that was a huge win as a Tampa backer. But no,
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: there's no one, there's nothing to say about it. It's
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: like either side whoever was going to cover or when
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: that game got lucky because there was whatever how many
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: points were scored, well over, well over seventy yeah.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Like seventy six something points. Yeah, right, So.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: Definitely not the way I saw that game going. I
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: thought it was gonna be defensive back and forth where
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: it was really low scoring and completely other way, Like
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: the Baker really showed up, really played out and pretty crazy.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: He was able to keep up somehow with what we
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: just talked about. That CGI game of yeah, just but
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: really well and the Bucks defensive didn't no favors. There
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: was a couple of times I think early in the
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: game they were going to kick a field goal or
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: Houston did kick a field goal and they got a
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: penalty of the Bucks next play they got a touchdown.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: Like that's a big deal flipping from three to seven,
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: especially when we like us have the dog. Usually those
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: those matter at the end of the game. So yeah,
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: felt very lucky walking away with that cover and just
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: trusting the number, playing the two and a half, trusting
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: the number, and it worked out.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: A game, it didn't work out for us. One more
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: game that did work out, Eagles covered against the Cowboys,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Thank freaking god. We didn't put in the contest, but
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: we both I loved the Eagles this week. I feel
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: like you tempered your enthusiasm for the Eagles this week
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: because you love the Eagles and like don't want to
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: let your love influence your thoughtful decision making. But I
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: we'll get you know what, We'll get to the Eagles.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: We'll get to the Eagles. But the Eagles won and
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: covered again. That didn't work out for us. Carolineup plus
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: two and a half. We loved this game all week,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: and boy were we wrong. Like it was basically doa
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: and Bryce Young was terrible. Made some adjustments, started to
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: play better in the second half, and then they had
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: like they completed up third and twelve from inside their
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: own ten. They were down twenty to ten, and then
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: they completed a forty eight year pass. I'm like, okay,
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: maybe we got a shot here. And Bryce Young maybe
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: he's been inspired by CJ. Stroud very play. Bryce Young
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: throws a laser on a screenplass over Miles Sanders head,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: picked off by Kenny Moore for his second pick six
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: in front of his six older sisters who were visiting,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: and that was it. Bryce Young was freaking terrible. We
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: missed this one bad.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, too bad. Just if Bryce Young just didn't turn
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: the ball over. This is most like an easy winning
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: a cover. And everything we said was true about Minshew
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: Mintchew was seventeen to twenty six which sounds pretty good
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: for one hundred and twenty seven yards passing. The guy
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: only threw for one hundred and twenty seven yards, and
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: their number one running back, Jonathan Taylor, had eighteen carries
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: for forty six yards. Like they didn't really do much offensively,
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: take away fourteen points. It's a tide game. So yeah,
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: it's just a classic. You bet on a rookie quarterback
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: and sometimes they played like a rookie. He played like
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: a rookie, threw two pick sixes, had a bunch of turnovers,
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: just bad again in the red zone, like not turning
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: these drives and the touchdowns selling for field goals. Yeah, disappointing,
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: but once again we said all the time, this is
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: life betting on back qbs. You live and die with it.
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: Either you get a Baker game, which is incredible, or
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: you get this kind of game, like two pick sixes.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: It's like you said, when was the first one. You're like, ah,
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: there's a chance we can get this back, right, maybe
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: we can get at this whole. The second one, you're dead.
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: You are so dead. No one comes back from maybe Mahomes,
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: but that's about it. So yeah, terrible bet all.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Right, Flowers for Simon. At the end of the show
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: on Thursday, we were talking about big Balls, we were
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: talking about Foxhole. We were pretty locked in on the
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Bengals and the Jets, and at the end of it,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: you threw out the Las Vegas or Adas and they
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: were like one and a half at the time. And
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Derek Farnsworth, who's a very well known writer for Roto Grinders,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: also contributes to Action Network's Best Bets files on a
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: regular basis, So in the Best Bets file for today,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: he said he was taking the Raiders and he called
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: it the dead cat bounce, which is a term in
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: finance for stocks that are basically in a downward spiral
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: but for one moment have a little bit of an
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: upward bounce.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit like the moment of clarity on
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: the death bed. And Derek franzw With predicted it. You
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: had it on Thursday. If we had taken the Jets out,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: if we decided to go all in on the Browns
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: at minus twelve and a half, whatever, are the Raiders
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: the team we would have put in today?
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, love the Raiders. The biggest giveaway I kept
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: saying was the fact that they were favorite, even though
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: we knew was Daniel Jones playing. The books are showing
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: no respect to that Giant team, and you know it
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: wouldn't have been a landslide today Iftino Jones stayed healthy.
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: But at the same time, it was just all going
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: against the Giants. In that game, it felt like the
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: Raiders game from the get go, and the team seemed looser.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: Even you know, DeVonta Adams got no catches. Usually he's
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: freaking out slamming his helmet on the sideline. He was chilling, Uh,
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: just like.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: He was making blocks.
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, just seem like the vibe was different. Obviously if
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: we had known that, if I'd know him, they're gonna
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: roll by double digits, I really would have grabbed you
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: by their shirt and been like, dude, we gotta get
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: this in. But uh, yeah, it felt good about it,
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: not just because the coach was getting fired, but just
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: felt like a good number and a good spot. And yeah,
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know who they're playing next week, but probably
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: probably got a bet against uh the Raiders next week.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: I think I I think I have it on our
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: on our look aheads because I was curious. I wanted
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: us to talk about it. Can We give a little
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: bit of flowers to Kevin O'Connell and the Minnesota Viking
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: because before the season began there was there were two narratives.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: The New York Giants won a lot of close games,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: and even if they regressed, they would get through the
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: regression because Brian Dayball is such a good coach. The
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings won a lot of close games, and we
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: did not believe they would get through the regression because
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: we didn't believe in Kevin O'Connell and we didn't believe
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Kirk cousins. Kirk cousins in Kirk Cousins before he was injured,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: was playing lights out, having a statistically incredible season. Now,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Kevin O'Connell, this week's got a quarterback who gets concussed,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: who's a rookie, gets concussed early in the quarter then
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: playing a guy who's literally traded on Tuesday. Kevin o'connen
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: and the Vikings are five and four. Brian day Ball
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: cannot win a game right now, no matter who's playing quarterback.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: He cannot figure out a way to coach this team
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: to a win. I know there's a lot of differences
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: that Vikings have better talent, but I feel like we
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: did not respect Kevin O'Connell enough, and we saw some
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: great coaching and play calling today.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: I think we all respect him. Just to write amount Chad,
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: It's it's not so much we didn't believe in Kirk.
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: It's just we know exactly what Kirk is. He's gonna
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: get stats, he'll win some games, but he's deck. It's
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: like in these big moments when you need his best
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: ball or you need him step up. Not that it's
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: always their fault, but usually it's their fault. Usually falls
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: in the quarterback. So love Kirk, but Kirk lost to
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: basically this Sam exact Giants team like that Giants mojo
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: last year made zero sense. I don't know how they
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: won that playoff game against Kirk. And you know, good
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: for Daniel Jones. He got paid the Giants. You know,
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: it's not his fault. He got hurt. But that team
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: just has so many holes. And that's life when you
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: let a really bad GM run your team for multiple
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: years and multiple drafts, like you're just they don't have talent.
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: The Giants and last year, you know, we talked about
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: they had flukey wins, just like this Vikings team had
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: some flucky wins, and this year the Vikings had the
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: other way where they had some fluky losses. So you know, Kirk,
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: they were still not that far off divisionally right when
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: he was healthy, Like the number, the lines weren't some
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: huge favorite to win this division, right, the books were
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: still keeping it kind of close. Once he went down
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: and shot way up right, that was kind of the
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: nail in that division. It just goes to lines now,
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: so we know that Kirk has a value. Like we
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: believe in Kirk. It's just it's like Dak today. Dak
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: will have these moments. You'll see it and you'll be like,
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: this guy's got it, he's really good. And then those
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: final moments you really need him step up. He just
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: for some reason he just doesn't. So yeah, tough, tough
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: game for if you're an Atlanta fan. This is one
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: of those if you don't win the division, this is
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: the game you'll look back on like you played against
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: a backup and then the backups backup you lost. So
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: crazy is a thirty one points that's what they're defense
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: gave up. That's back to back weeks. You gave up
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: that to Dobbs in the week before you gave up
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: to Will Levis, a rookie. It's not all fallen on
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: the offense of Atlanta right now. It's really fall on
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: that defense. Yeah.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: One of the games we are going to talk about
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: is Minnesota New Orleans, which is happening next week, so
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: I've marked that for our week ten look ahead. I
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: mentioned New England and Washington. That was the game that
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: you and I had a lot of conversations about on Tuesday.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: On Sunday, we had a lot of conversations about it.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: On Tuesday, we had a lot of conversations about it.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: The wise guys were on New England. The line moved
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: from from three and a half to three to two
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: and a half, bounce back up to three. What is
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: your take on why professional betters felt strongly about New
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: England when we've said, like mac Jones is terrible, Like
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: he cannot throw an out, he's terrible at reading coverages,
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: He's terrible and inaccurate on long passes. Now he's bad,
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: He's he's awful, Like it doesn't matter what you scheme,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: he cannot execute the scheme. And I don't know what
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: I'm missing here, Like why what whise guys continue to
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: want to back this team. Are they like that We've said,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: are they like the Jags of the twenty tens? Where
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: because they are so bad? The value is always going
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: to be on New England because I feel like we're
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: going to have the same conversation every week.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's also it's Belichick and we just talked
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: about teams that were winning coin flip games that they
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: just lost another coin flip game, Like this is just
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: who New England is right now, and that does fall
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: on mac Jones. Mac Jones has been bad. But you know,
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: go through this season and look at the Patriots games.
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: They lost a coin flip game too, the Dolphins, they
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: lost a coin flip game to the Eagles. They lost
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: coin flip game to the Raiders. This is another game
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: where you know, he drives that field. He wins by four.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: Are all the Sharps geniuses now, Chad because they got
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: that right because he drove the field. It's it is
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: tough where it's like that's just how it goes sometimes.
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: But I'm with you. I watched a lot of that
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: game that was in my corner TV and like Matt Jones,
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: man just wide open throws. He can't lead guys. He
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: just makes bad reads. And it's just crazy how football
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: works that way, where it's so much of its mental
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: and he's just regressed where like he made those throws
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: when he was a rookie and now he's all these
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: years of experience and he's been in the league and
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: he's not making those throws anymore, like easy throws. Like
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: now we're not talking tough throws, easy throws, open guys.
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: So uh yeah, it sucks, brother, But you know, thanks
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: to you and who else talked us off that one.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: I'm just glad we don't have the contest because that
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: that would have been awful loss.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, that would have been I mean, fortunately,
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: the line was always three and a half and even
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: though we didn't agree on the side, like we never liked.
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: Well we put in Washington around Robin.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: That's true, we did.
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, good for us.
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: I forgot about that. But the line was never something
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: we were comfortable with, Like we were never gonna play
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: three and a half for New England now.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: But when I got to two and a half, I
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: bit pretty heavy. So yeah, I got I got slaughtered
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: by that number.
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: Speaking of not being able to execute one of the
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: reasons we didn't like the Cowboys, at least I didn't
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: like the Cowboys. I don't want to put words in
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: your mouth is I'm just not a Byron McCarthy and
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not a Buyron Zach and I think eron Zak
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: and I think that the Eagles are a better coached,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: deeper roster, a smarter team who are comfortable with the
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: idea of winning and comfortable about executing under pressure. And
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: Dak was great today. Ceedee Lamb was amazing. I think
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: that was the weakness that we talked about on the podcast.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: But this is not a team that knows how to close.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely a lot of advantages. I mean the like
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: I said though, the Dak and Ceedee Lamb combo, it's scary. Yeah,
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: it's a scary combo. Like when they when he needs it,
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: Lamb's usually there and usually he's open. That was a
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: real matchup win for them in this Eagles game that
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: I definitely overlook. I thought they're gonna be able to
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: take that away double team and they just didn't. Eagles
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: left him one on one man most of the game
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: and Lamb kept winning those matchups. So yeah, happy Hurts
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: went down like, I don't know what's going on that knee,
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: but bunky, Yeah, a guy bends into it, falls into it,
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: weird like when the d lineman hit it and he
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: just walked it off and he's back in there and
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: he you know, finished the game and played well. So
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: the Eagles thing scary as a fan. It's like, I
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: don't know, is this guy gonna make it the rest
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: of the way, Like we're just at the halfway point
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: of just the regular season, not even talking playoffs, like
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: the Eagles got a really tough stretch here, but yeah,
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: and Eagles better, honestly chat, I feel lucky, like when
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: they got it down there was it was the first
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: and five at the goal line there at the end,
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: and Eagles d stepped up they made the play. So
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: as much as I want to get credit to the offense,
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: they did show out and the defense of their best
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: game at the end the end they played when it mattered.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: They had two well I guess you had three huge
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: stops at the goal line there that really obviously changed
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: the game. So yeah, Eagles fandom happy is a better.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: I'm really happy. It's it's definitely I don't know, if
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: you're a Cowboys fan. I don't want to keep saying
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: it's the same old Cowboys, but what are you gonna do?
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: It falls on deck. Dak played well, but end of
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: the day, it falls on deck. So I don't know.
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: Maybe they'll fire McCart at the end of the season,
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: but they definitely need some type of difference. It's just
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: they're not getting over that hump they keep needing to
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: get over. It's like you also the forty nine ers.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: Now you lose the Eagles, that's the cloud the NFC.
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: You got to be at least one of them. So
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: even though the Eagles played them later in the season,
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: this was a huge ton center for this Cowboys team
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: and that they had definitely let down their betters and
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: the fan base.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Other picks foxhole is Cincinnati minus two. That is tonight,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: Simon says, was Carolina plus two and a half. Exact
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: decision was Philadelphia minus three. Our big balls is Jets
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half survivor what's the matter?
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: I just thought, I don't know why I thought we
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: had the bucks of our big balls.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: No, we had Jets plus three and a half and survivor.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: We narrowed it down to New Orleans or Cleveland, depending
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: on sort of who might be available. So hopefully people
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: chose either one of those teams. Round robin was Carolina,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: Temp Bay, New York Jets, Washington, Seattle. Seattle is interesting.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: This time last week we saw that game. We thought
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: Seattle was the right side, but we couldn't quite commit
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: to betting it. The whole week. We didn't bet it.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: It got to six and a half. This morning, I
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: pulled the trigger and the second I pulled the trigger,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: I'm like, why did I fucking do that? And they
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: were never they were never in it. They were Ah.
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: It was in the first quarter, it was three nothing.
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: I thought we had a chance, and then you're right,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: it just Gino never woke.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: Up, you know, never, he just kept getting sacked paid. Yeah,
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: he couldn't get a rhythm. Yep. I want to get
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: but great matchup next week Baltimore in Cleveland. I want
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: to get to for the look aheadlines for week ten.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Uh Sunday night, Lean, I've said it many times. We
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: have Cincinnati minus one and a half in the contest.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: That is the current line. Simon and I are both
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: on Cincinnati in a decent sized way. Accurate.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I mean I'm in on it.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: You know of it.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: I mean I love it enough. It's one of our five.
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: But yeah, not not buying a nice car with it.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: Well, if I middle this, which is what I'm trying
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: to do with Cincinnati plus one and hard for it. Yeah,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: if if this game can land on too, I'm buying
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: a I am. I am going all in on a
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: shake shack Uber eats for the whole family. Uh, Monday
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: night football leans on the Jets plus three and a half.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: We just said it, big balls better the week. You're
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: scared about.
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: It, I'm scared. I'm just I don't know why, just
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: sitting on three and a half. All of us are
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: taking it. I don't know any I don't know anyone
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: that's not taking that's never really good. So yeah, just
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: believing in this Jets defense. But again, it's like I
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: read Evans articles and it scares the shit out of me.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: I think you had something in there. They're like the
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: Jets and the Giants combined are one in fourteen straight
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: up on Monday night games. I think that only win
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: came against this year against the Buffalo Bills, and that
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: Monday night like week one, So uh, we need, we
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: need more magic. I feel I feel very lucky right now,
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: so hopefully it keeps running. But yeah, just like I said,
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: I just wish it was over now. We gotta wake
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: up tomorrow since he doesn't work out for us, so
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: I gotta wait all day and hopefully get the three
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: and two. It's the worst so we need since e
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: bad tonight, Like Chad was saying, all.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Right, we needed so bad. I don't want to have
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: to worry about this JEFS game tomorrow.
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: Me either, me either. I mean I'm worried about cause
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: I bet on it, but like I don't be losing
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: sleepover it.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: Simon. Can you know in the fastest growing ticketing app
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: in the United States?
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game
• 31:43
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• 31:47
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• 31:57
  Speaker 1: to open game Time right now from my house here
• 31:59
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• 32:38
  Speaker 1: All right. Week ten, Dude, Week ten, Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Eagles have the buye. I was going to bring up
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: New England and Indie because it's a New England line.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: It's a one point New England's a one point favorite,
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: but it's a it's a Germany game, so.
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: That I wouldn't do it to our fans regardless. Yeah.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: So some games that were interesting to me that I flagged,
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: I flagged. I got six games that were interesting. The
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Jags are two and a half point dogs at home
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: against San Francisco.
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: I know, I mean, we want to take the Jags.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: Why wouldn't they be the better team right now? But yes,
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to do with it.
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: Man, But I don't want to bet it right now.
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: I already did. You might as well bet it as
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: you did. Yeah, that was one of the first bets
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: I made. It's just well, I want to see who.
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: I want to see who's backing rock Party right now,
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: Like it feels like everyone everyone's off rock Party right now.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: They need to see it again. My fear is this
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: kid just had back to back concussions. You have concussion,
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: came back too soon. Looked like he got another one
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: in that game, and he stayed in the game and
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: played bad. And you know, he went back to I
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: don't know where he lives, but he was farming, so
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: like he's with his family, he's just hanging out. I
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: don't know.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: I was his girlfriend in Iowa.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if you reconcussions, man, but like
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: I had some real concussions before, and that that stays
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: with you. Like if you get one and get another
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: one real quick right afterwards, usually not yourself. You're not
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: thinking as quick and sharp for at least a month,
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: Like it really does wring your head and it's just
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: tough to get back from it. So the fact that
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: I think he's a little wounded. I'm getting a plus
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: number one I think is the better team right now,
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: like it feels like the Jaguars are playing as a
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: better team, even though talent wise, I do think the
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers have more talent. No one's no one's
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: saying they don't. But just the way the Jags have
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: been playing as a home dog with Peterson's how do
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: we avoid it? But I'm with Chad. I could get
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: up to three, but I'm gonna take the two and
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: a half just in case it does go down.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: Next game, Cleveland plus five at Baltimore. I bet this
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: late afternoon when it was Cleveland plus five, which it still.
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: Is good five and a half. I've bet three to
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: six five right now.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: Wow, Well, then go get it.
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: It's hard. It's I don't know, man, what am I doing?
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: Am I really believing in Watson? Like I don't know
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: if I believe in Watson? I know I do. I
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: know I do believe, and I believe in Lamar. But
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: we always talk about it's hard buying high buying high
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: end teams, like after those kind of wins like that's
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: that was an incredible win by Lamar today, like they
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: completely dominated another team that was top ten in defense
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: and offense like the Seattle. Yeah, they've had some week competition,
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: but they're a good team and they got completely dominated today.
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: And I said, I said a lot. I didn't think
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: Lamar played that great of a game, like that's how
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: good they are right now with that run scheme. Ever,
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: I think they're doing in Baltimore defensively. You know, Roque's
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: just playing out of this world. That defense is so
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: good for the Ravens. So I get with your first
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: ideas here, Chad, but you might have another Seattle scenario.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: You might be able to get a six. But I
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: won't touch this yet. I'll wait and see what the
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: other pros are doing, because clearly some wise guys were
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: on that Ravens. They moved that number all up to six,
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: all up to six and a half. And I know
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: I checked the app before kickoff. There was a decent
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: amount of money and bets on Seattle. So pretty interesting.
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: They're there once again. They're back in this Ravens here
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: early against this Cleveland number.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: I think, look, it's totally a different scenario. Right we're
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: talking about a divisional game. We're talking about a much
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: more superior defense than Seattle. We're talking about getting a
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: team betting against a team that is going to be inflated.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Maybe there's going to be a six round, which I
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: will probably bet again, But I think that this is
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: one of those classic AFC North matchups, and I bet
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: when we talk about this on Tuesday, all of the
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: data that we look at that Evan feeds us, that
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: we research on our own, when we have forty eight
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: hours of perspective, will tell us that this will be
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: This should be a game that is at three and
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: a half at the most. Okay, that's what I think.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: The reason I took the five because I had seen
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: some five and a half's out there and the books
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: I can bet on in Connecticut, it was already moving
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: to five, and so I just wanted to make sure
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: I grabbed it all right. New Orleans at Minnesota. Minnesota
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: is plus three right now, and I can't decide is
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: Minnesota already over overvalued because of today? And No Orleans meanwhile,
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: like they played terrible against the Bears. They should have
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: blown that team out by a million, or they should
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: have lost the game. Tyson invasion, four turnovers, three picks
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: of fumble, couldn't get couldn't get beyond his own twenty
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: yard line a couple of times more often than not,
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: including the end of the game where if we had
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: the Bears plus nine and a half like I did. Uh,
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: you got so lucky with the cover in this game.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: But does one appeal? Does this want appeal to you?
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: I haven't bet this one yet, but it was interesting
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: to me.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: A talking Bears Thursday night or no.
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: No, no, I'm talking about New Orleans at Minnesota plus three.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I saw the number. I thought about griving Minnesota,
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: the plus three. I missed it most books already having
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: at two and a half. Now, gonna wait and see
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: on that number, because I feel like you're right where.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: It's like in my heart, I want to take Minnesota.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: It's fun, yeah, Like everything about that story is fun.
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: The way they play is fun. But I'm talking real
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: money here, and I don't want to be just betting
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: on fun. I need to like run this through a
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: model and see what the numbers should because right now
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: it feels like the value is towards Minnesota. But I
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: don't know. Man, that Saints team, they're just good, Like
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: the biggest issue for them was scoring the red zone. Right.
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: That was all their whole problem this season was Derek
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: Carr getting threes. And they've kind of figured out this
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: rotation of Car and Taysom Hill, like they bring Hill
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: in when they need a bulldozer in the red zone
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: and it's been working like that really feels like that's
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: kind of thing that works for that team. So yeah,
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: no play for this one yet for me. Chad.
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: We mentioned the Jets. We mentioned in Las Vegas. They're
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: two and a half point home dogs against the Jets.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's I'm sorry seeing one and a half's
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: on that. So the pros are coming on Vegas. I
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: don't know what to do because I want to fade
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: both these like, yeah, you know, I want to take
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: the Jets.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: Wait, I want to see it with the Jets.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: That's what I mean. I want to get the Jets.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: I could get a better number of the Jets, depends
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: what happens this week. And the lines right now are
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: minus one at the Chargers. Bizarre line. Like the real
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: Joe public in me is just like take take the
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: lines like they're a covering machine. This is indoors. What
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: what a weird line, very weird line. So that's another one.
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: I bet it. I could buy it out of my position.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: If this is like the same thing, if this is
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: eighty percent of all the bets, eighty percent of the
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: money is on the lines and they're on the road,
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: yes I will buy them in a position. But this
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: isn't the number one public bed of the week. Who knows,
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: because again, the public do win this week the number
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: one most bet game. Darrenravel told us the Chiefs covered
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: number two most bet team bet money, Eagles covered number three.
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: Me and Chad Hope cover it's the Bengals. So we
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: say all the time that the public do win. But this,
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: this is the most public bet of the week for
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: me right now is this lines bet? But I gotta
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: take it right minus one even if the Chargers win big, Like,
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: how much does this number really move a point? Maybe
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: they flipped it being the favorite. I don't know. I
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: just I just think this line won't move too much.
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: The only way I can move is negatively towards this
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: Lion's team. If if this Chargers team do lou lose
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: on Monday night, Uh.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: The last game that I was looking at that I
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: don't have a strong opinion yet, but I just thought
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: it was interesting. Yeah, Atlanta at Arizona. Arizona is a
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: two and a half point dog. If you bet on this,
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: you're kind of betting on Kyler playing in the long moving.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: Hundred percent what we're betting on. And I've heard I
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: heard from people from the fans of the show, and
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: I've heard from other pros where it's like, would you
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: really take Kyler after this long layoff in his first game?
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: Like remember how sloppy Watson played and these other guys
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: after long layoffs, And I don't know. Maybe I'll go
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: through that and see if there's any data behind that
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: that's true after a long layft. So these quarterbacks are
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: coming back. But we just talked about this Atlanta secondary
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: is bad. This Atlanta defense is bad. They're just giving
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: up tons of yards to bad quarterbacks. So I was
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: hoping it would be three or above, right, and the
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: fact that it is two and a half, my Chad
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: might be right. Maybe that's the books telling us that
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: they kind of know and they kind of think it
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: is going to be Kyler. So I'll throw a bet
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: on it, small bed just in case. The number of moves.
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: But we talked abut the time the two and a
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: half is key, So I'm not doing the money line here.
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: I'll just I'll take the two and a half for now.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: What am I missing? We talked about you already bet
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: the Jags plus two and a half. We'll take a
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: little bit of a taste on Arizona plus two and
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: a half. I like Cleveland already. You're waiting to see
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: if you can get any intel from the wise guys
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: which way they move it Detroit minus one?
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: What else? Honestly, I haven't really made anything That Jaguars
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: were the first one I touched, just just because that
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: line looked the most off I did bet Pittsburgh. There
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: was a two and a half out there, and there's
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: a couple of threes out there now, and it's it's
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: just Jordan level on the road. Like I really don't
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: have any faith right now in Pittsburgh. I feel like
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: I did get lucky with them on Thursday, but it
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: felt like it was just a bet on Tomlin, And
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: like I know, I don't love Ben tomins a favorite,
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: but it just feels like their defense against these quarterbacks,
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: that's an advantage. Their defense is good and as well
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: as Leed is played right, putting the ball up and
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: down the field. I talked about him in the red zone.
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: That was gonna be the challenge, Like veteran quarterbacks this
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: year are struggling in the red zone. Imagine being a
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: first or second year starter in this league and now
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: you're in the red zone. I guess these complicated schemes
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: that have really changed the NFL these past couple of seasons.
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: We've seen so many unders. So that was the line
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: I just took, just in case it moves up to
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: three and a half four. So again, didn't go big
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: on this one Pittsburgh yet, but chaj jasketball bets I made.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: This is when I just touched when it was two
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: and a half and three. It's just a good number
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: on Pittsburgh at home.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: All right, Little recap Jags plus two and a half
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: Tiny Little Taste Detroit minus one Tiny Little Taste Pittsburgh
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half three Tiny Little Taste Cleveland
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: plus five Tiny Little Taste Arizona plus two and a
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: half ten teny Tiny Taste. As reminder, the Favorites podcast
• 44:24
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• 45:12
  Speaker 1: We got Cincy minus one and a half in the
• 45:13
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• 45:21
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• 45:22
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