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Where is Texas in latest College Football Playoff Projections? · The Craig Way Show

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  Speaker 1: Before we get to this conversation that Will Matthews had
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  Speaker 1: with Michael taff. We update this every week because ESPN
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  Speaker 1: updates this every week what the computer numbers say, because
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  Speaker 1: if we can tell you what the computer numbers in
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  Speaker 1: the state of Texas say about a given matchup, for example,
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  Speaker 1: Jerry Forrest Pigskin Prep, where everything is fed in that
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  Speaker 1: computer and it spits out a projection for every single
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  Speaker 1: game across the state of Texas in high school football
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  Speaker 1: every week. In case you're wondering, the computer likes Westlake
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  Speaker 1: by six points over Lake Travis six man.
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  Speaker 2: LBJ is a one hundred and nineteen What was that, Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: it's just what the computer says.
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  Speaker 1: A man himself does not set the odds, but there's
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  Speaker 1: a it's an algorithm. And Greg Keepper pointed it out
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  Speaker 1: a week or two ago. He said, the algorithm really
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  Speaker 1: is fond of lopsided wins on your resume as it
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  Speaker 1: figures out for your next game. So when LBJ played
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  Speaker 1: Achieve Austin and Chief, the computer spit out that LBJ
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  Speaker 1: should win by one hundred and nineteen points. Now we
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  Speaker 1: know that's not going to happen, and it did not
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  Speaker 1: happen running clock the second half. They won seventy two
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  Speaker 1: to nothing, which is pretty respectable.
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  Speaker 2: Considering what it could have been.
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  Speaker 1: Yes, but I should also say that Jerry Forrest went
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  Speaker 1: in after the computer spit that number out and just
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  Speaker 1: removed it completely and put in l like no line. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: you know, not that anybody's betting. You know our friend
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  Speaker 1: Jeff Houses. There's some old boy sitting in the back
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  Speaker 1: of the place. It used to be called thee Boons.
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  Speaker 1: I can't remember what it's called now. Assauda drove past
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  Speaker 1: it last week in Florence. If they said, back here
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  Speaker 1: in the back and they talk about what should be
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  Speaker 1: a betting life for a high school game. But but
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  Speaker 1: the it did do that, but for college football, not
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  Speaker 1: necessarily for the betting lines or anything like that. What
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  Speaker 1: we look at are what between several different outlets, be
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  Speaker 1: it Yes and the athletic most notably, what it says
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  Speaker 1: about the playoff picture, of the college football playoff picture
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  Speaker 1: and what the rankings would or should look like.
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  Speaker 2: And this is what they believe.
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  Speaker 1: That if the committee, if the committee was doing college
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  Speaker 1: football playoff rankings now instead of coming up what in
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  Speaker 1: two weeks I guess it is going to be the
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  Speaker 1: first one. I think it's the first one. Is November eighth,
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  Speaker 1: is it. Yeah, yeah, so it's a couple of weeks off.
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  Speaker 1: But so, but what they're saying, if they spit it
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  Speaker 1: out now, what they're saying it would look like would
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  Speaker 1: be the top nine would be identical to.
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  Speaker 2: The A people.
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  Speaker 1: Oregon, Georgia, Penn State, Ohio State, Texas at five, Miami, Tennessee, LSU, Clemson,
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  Speaker 1: Notre Dame would be ten. They think according to the committee,
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  Speaker 1: they're twelfth in AP. Iowa State would be eleventh and
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  Speaker 1: would be thirteenth in the AP, and Indiana would be twelve,
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  Speaker 1: thirteenth in the AP. Now that's the way. Now we
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  Speaker 1: know things will be different because of conference championships and
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  Speaker 1: then the at largest and you've got to have a
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  Speaker 1: G five school in there.
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  Speaker 2: It'll be that kind of thing.
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  Speaker 1: So they say, do that, and it says Oregon isn't
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  Speaker 1: yet trusted by the predictive algorithms that remember the Ducks
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  Speaker 1: early season under achievement, but with zero losses and a
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  Speaker 1: win over the number fourteen, Oregon is the obvious number
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  Speaker 1: one for now. In all, the Big ten has three
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  Speaker 1: of the top four, but only four of the top
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  Speaker 1: twenty one.
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  Speaker 2: That league is a very top heavy race.
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  Speaker 1: The SEC, with eight of the top eighteen, seems to
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  Speaker 1: lose clarity by the week because of the Texas lost
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  Speaker 1: to Georgia. Of the ten remaining unbeaten teams, nine are
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  Speaker 1: accounted for here. The tenth is Liberty, which is both
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  Speaker 1: played against a terribly weak schedule and failed to dominate.
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  Speaker 1: The Flames are sixty second in those style ratings. It's
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  Speaker 1: really hard to find a path to the College Football
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  Speaker 1: Playoff for them unless a ton of other G five
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  Speaker 1: teams lose and they actually start to dominate bad teams.
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  Speaker 2: And it says.
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  Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Army and Navy, both unbeaten, are behind one lost
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  Speaker 1: Boise he State at the moment, but both get shots
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  Speaker 1: of Notre Dame in the coming weeks, so if either
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  Speaker 1: reaches twelve to zero, it'll likely pass the Broncos.
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  Speaker 2: That'd be pretty interesting if that happens. Wait, who is
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  Speaker 2: the four seed?
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  Speaker 1: Sorry right now on that it's Ohio State, But shouldn't
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  Speaker 1: that be a big twolve team. Well, like I said,
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  Speaker 1: this is the way the computer would do it. The
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  Speaker 1: committee overall would make its own adjustments. Obviously, I thought
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  Speaker 1: the rules are the conference champions have to be one, two, three,
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  Speaker 1: and four. They are ultimately, but the rankings don't have
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  Speaker 1: to reflect that until after you get conference champions.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, I see that. I feel like that's stupid, but whatever.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, they say it's BCS rankings like until you get
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  Speaker 1: to win the conference, because, like I said, they got
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  Speaker 1: to get a G five team in at least in
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  Speaker 1: the top twelve, and these standings are not top twelve. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: they want to do that, but they keep five. They
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  Speaker 1: keep track of the G five. I mention it Boise
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  Speaker 1: is the highest ranked of the G five's. Although if
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  Speaker 1: and I had this first time I've read this, I wondered,
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  Speaker 1: and this is it.
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  Speaker 2: If if.
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  Speaker 1: Army or Navy goes twelve and oh, okay and and
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  Speaker 1: and by twelve and oh, that doesn't include the game
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  Speaker 1: against each other because they have to play eleven games first,
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  Speaker 1: then you have what's conference championship weekend. If one of
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  Speaker 1: those teams or both should happen to beat Notre Dame
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  Speaker 1: and they wind up playing each other and both are
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  Speaker 1: eleven and oh, and one team emerges twelve and oh,
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  Speaker 1: or even if one of them beats Notre Dame, but
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  Speaker 1: the other one doesn't, and the one that beats Notre
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  Speaker 1: Dame winds up winning the American Conference Champampionship in their
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  Speaker 1: twelve and zho.
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  Speaker 2: What this projection says, and it's the first.
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  Speaker 1: Time I've read it, is that it'll likely pass the
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  Speaker 1: one lost Boise State team whose only loss is to
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  Speaker 1: the number one team Oregon. And that's assuming boys, he
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  Speaker 1: goes the rest of the way and wins the Mountain West.
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  Speaker 1: But they're saying a twelve and oh Army or Navy,
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  Speaker 1: which has won the American and would have a win
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  Speaker 1: over Notre Dame included in there, would pass them.
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  Speaker 2: And now again keep.
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  Speaker 1: In mind that that twelve and oh is before they
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  Speaker 1: actually play each other Army and Navy, because they always
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  Speaker 1: played the week after the conference championship games because as
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  Speaker 1: we all said, it's Army Navy, it's great tradition.
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  Speaker 2: But that's not going to factor in the playoff.
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  Speaker 1: It is right now, but that game will not factor
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  Speaker 1: him because the playoff spots are locked in after conference
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  Speaker 1: championship weekend, so it's a freebie for Army and Navy.
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  Speaker 2: It's like a ballgame.
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  Speaker 1: So if one but they got to get to the
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  Speaker 1: finish line twelve and oh, and that means beating Notre
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  Speaker 1: Dame in the greater metropolitan New York area. I think
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  Speaker 1: the Navy game is that the metalands and the Army
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  Speaker 1: game is at Yankee Stadium, so you'd have to have
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  Speaker 1: that and then whoever emerges, and this is assuming a
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  Speaker 1: win over Notre Dame. If they don't, then it probably
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  Speaker 1: doesn't matter unless boys he loses again. But if one
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  Speaker 1: does get to eleven to oh, including in that and
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  Speaker 1: win over Notre Dame and then wins the American Conference
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  Speaker 1: Championship to go twelve and zero, they're getting in, according
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  Speaker 1: to these projections, over a Boise State team that would
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  Speaker 1: be twelve and one and have an extra data point,
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  Speaker 1: but they did that one loss. They so these projections
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  Speaker 1: say a twelve and oh Army or Navy would get
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  Speaker 1: in and then they play each other the next week,
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  Speaker 1: so that would be pretty cool. But anyway, folks wanting
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  Speaker 1: to know what the say about the SEC forecast, would
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  Speaker 1: you like to know who is the favorite with the
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  Speaker 1: title odds of twenty percent or higher? There's two teams,
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  Speaker 1: you know who has the highest OIDs It's made the playoff?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah? Is it still Texas.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it is at just under twenty five percent and
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  Speaker 1: LSU at twenty one percent. It says, all of a sudden,
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  Speaker 1: the SEC has got MESSAGEE. If Texas had beaten Georgia
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  Speaker 1: in Austin on Saturday night, the Longhorns likely would have
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  Speaker 1: moved over fifty percent here. Instead, they're won of four
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  Speaker 1: teams between sixteen percent and twenty five percent, but they're
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  Speaker 1: the highest at twenty four point six LSU at twenty
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  Speaker 1: one point three. Despite a tiebreaker disadvantage with Georgia, the
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  Speaker 1: Horns still hold the edge here, primarily because of the
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  Speaker 1: remaining schedule. While Georgia has to play two SP plus
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  Speaker 1: top ten teams in Old misson Tennessee, plus a rising
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  Speaker 1: Florida in Jacksonville, Texas gets Florida at Homer, doesn't play
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  Speaker 1: anyone currently ranked higher than fourteenth ranked Texas A and M.
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  Speaker 1: The Horns therefore have about twice as good a chance
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  Speaker 1: of winning out thirty eight percent as the team that
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  Speaker 1: just beat them nineteen percent. And then it says, and
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  Speaker 1: then there's LSU. After shaky starting the season, Brian Kellyes,
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  Speaker 1: Tigers have overachieved against SP projections plus projections for three
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  Speaker 1: straight games. Beating Ole Miss and blowing out Arkansas on
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  Speaker 1: the process, the one of only two teams to remain
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  Speaker 1: unbeaten inn SEC play, which means they have a mull
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  Speaker 1: again that most other contenders don't. If they go one
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  Speaker 1: in one over their next two games at A and
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  Speaker 1: M Alabama at home, they'll be wonderfully positioned to get
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  Speaker 1: to the finish line at seven and one. In the
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  Speaker 1: second tier fighting chance title odds at ten percent of
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  Speaker 1: twenty percent is Georgia at sixteen point eight and the
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  Speaker 1: Aggies at sixteen point one. Of A and M.
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  Speaker 2: It goes hello there, Texas, A and M.
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  Speaker 1: The Aggies are the only four tozer team in league play,
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  Speaker 1: and while they looked unamazing against Mississippi statenon STARTGAL, they
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  Speaker 1: remained fourteenth overall in sp plus. Basically, the four projected
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  Speaker 1: favorites here are A the two best teams, and B
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  Speaker 1: the two teams still unbeaten in the league play. Between them,
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  Speaker 1: LSU and A and M have a thirty seven percent
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  Speaker 1: title chance. The winner of Saturday's game in College Station
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  Speaker 1: will command most of that thirty seven percent a week
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  Speaker 1: from now, and then A long shots Tennessee nine point
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  Speaker 1: six percent Alabama just five point nine percent, Missouri three
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  Speaker 1: point point on.
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  Speaker 2: Miss one point eight. So there's that.
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  Speaker 1: So anyway that I found that real interesting and talking
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  Speaker 1: about the SEC and the and the college football playoff
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  Speaker 1: picture in the conference races there all right. Up next,
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  Speaker 1: we'll hear Will matthews conversation with Michael Taff the long
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  Speaker 1: warn safety when we continue on Sports Radio AM thirteen
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  Speaker 1: under the Zone.