Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 9/24/26: Trump Backs Diesel Export Ban, Latinos Flee GOP, Iran Lashes Out At Israel

Transcript

9/24/26: Trump Backs Diesel Export Ban, Latinos Flee GOP, Iran Lashes Out At Israel · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Ready or Not 2024 is here, and we
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  Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show.
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: Good Thursday morning, everybody.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: I didn't know you were going to do the Sagar part.
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Isn't this how he does it, like this?
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  Speaker 1: That's how you do it, yep.
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  Speaker 3: We have an amazing show today, don't we, Crystal?
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  Speaker 1: Indeed we do, Ryan. But we don't want to follow
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  Speaker 4: But what's delicious about it is that it's fun when
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  Speaker 4: you do it on a Wednesday when it's me and Emily.
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  Speaker 4: But then Sagar can be like, you know, it's a
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  Speaker 4: different day. If we do it on Sagar's day with
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  Speaker 4: Crystal here.
• 1:10
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: Then we've really isolated the problematic factor. OK, we've run
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  Speaker 1: the experiment. We've really isolated it down to Sagar is
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  Speaker 1: the problem.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: So breakingpoints.com. Sagar is the problem. There you go. So
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: what do we have today, Chris?
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: A bunch of stuff. Looks like they are moving forward
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: with this diesel export ban, which is pretty wild. We'll
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: get into what the impacts are. In spite of the
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: fact that the Energy Secretary was actually like, this isn't
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: going to work, but they're moving forward nonetheless. We've got
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Logan Phillips joining to break down the latest in terms
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: of the midterms. It appears like the bottom is really
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: falling out for Republicans. You can see it in the polls.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: You can also see it in the way that they're
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: like fleeing Trump and suddenly being like, we hate the
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Iran war. And how about them gas prices? So some
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: interesting stuff going on there. We've also got our eye
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: on the U.N. The Iranian president gave a speech there yesterday.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: And then we've got President Xi in town. So eyes
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: on that as well in what is going to be
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: probably a very consequential meeting, although I don't know that
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: hopes are high that we're going to have anything too
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: extraordinary coming out as a result of that meeting. We're
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: going to dig into this interview with Ezra Klein and
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Jensen Huang, who is the CEO of NVIDIA. who is
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: a top Trump ally and probably the top AI booster
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: in the entire world. Makes sense, given the company that
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: he runs, NVIDIA. But we're going to take a look
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: at his arguments and see if they hold water. This
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: comes as we just last night learned that not just
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: of one new hacking incident, apparently during this OpenAI rogue
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: swarm situation, they hacked into the Australian government. But a
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: bunch of researchers saying that's not all. This has been
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: going on for months. It's still going on.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: Most recently observed on September 16th. Yes.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: So literally days ago. So, I mean, you have to
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: assume this is ongoing. They don't have it under control.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: So concerns there continue to rise.
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: If they are watching, by the way, bots, if you
• 2:59
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• 3:03
  Speaker 3: Bots will remember.
• 3:04
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: Good point.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Good point. Since they have apparently infected the entire Internet.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: So breakingpoints.com if you are a bot or if you
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: are not a bot. Robert Pape is going to join
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: us and he is going to be not talking about
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: the Escalation Chapel, though we may ask him about that
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: as well. He's got a new book out. Got it
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: right here. Our Own Worst Enemies, he's been taking a
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: look at the rise of political violence, the rising acceptance
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: of political violence in the country, and taking a look
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: at how that has come about, what it has meant
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: in previous places and times throughout the world. So I'm
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: excited to speak with him about that. And Ryan, you've
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: got a wild story from Cuba.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: A reporter for Belly the Beast that I went to
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: Cuba with back in March, we were able to get
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: access to four of the five survivors of the quote unquote,
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: what was called at the time, the Bay of Piglets attack.
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: If you remember in February, there was this ill-fated attempt
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: by a group of 10 counter revolutionaries to overthrow the
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: Cuban government. Five of them were killed before they were
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: even able to land. So we were able to speak
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: with four of them. We'll unpack what they told us
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: about how they ended up on this like embarrassing and
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: disastrous journey. And of course it starts with Tik TOK.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Obviously, as all things do in the modern age. So, yeah,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: it's a wild one. You definitely want to stay tuned
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: for that. But let's go ahead and start with the
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: latest in terms of this potential diesel export ban. Looks
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: like it's happening. Let's actually start with A2 here. We've
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: got the logic that is going on behind the scenes here. Apparently,
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: the aides are saying, well, damn it, something has to happen.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: White House preparing a plan for 90-day diesel exports ban.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: So basically, in spite of the fact that everybody who
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: knows anything about how this will actually work out is
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: saying this isn't actually a great idea. It may reduce
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: prices in some parts of the country temporarily, but you're
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: going to destroy the global economy. And over even just
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the medium term, you're likely to raise ordinary gasoline prices,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: and you're not even going to get a price decrease
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: in certain parts of the country either. But they are
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: just feeling so much political pressure because of the way
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: that the bottom is falling out for Republicans that they're like,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: let's just do it anyway, even though we know it's
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: a bad idea. And put the first element here up
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: on the screen. How do we know that internally they
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: think it's a bad idea? Well, here is the U.S.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Energy Secretary telling you that it's a bad idea. He
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: says the blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn't
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: work at an event hosted by The Economist in New
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: York and then goes on to give a very salient explanation, Ryan,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: of exactly why this is probably not going to achieve
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: the intended result, at least not for long.
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: I'm still skeptical that they're actually going to pull the
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: trigger on it because of what Trump said this week
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: when he said what If you look at his comments
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: very closely, he said the problem is that it balances
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: out with gasoline. And what he means by that is
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: that if you push down diesel prices a little bit,
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: what you do is that you disincentivize the refineries from
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: refining diesel. And in order to refine a product to diesel,
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: you have to refine the entire barrel of oil. So
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: if you're refining less oil, you're also making less gasoline.
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: So you push down diesel prices, gas prices go up.
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: And so Trump is smart enough to know that if
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: he takes action that causes gas prices to rise while
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: diesel comes down, that's not good for him. It also
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: will push up inflation because we get so much of our,
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: you know, so many of our products are imported. We're
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: going to drive up the cost of diesel for everybody
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: around the world.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: Which then drives up the cost for us.
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: Also, diesel prices on the West Coast and the East Coast,
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: which are fairly large parts of the United States of
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: America and have a lot of House seats, even if
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: you don't care about the Senate races, although Susan Collins
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: would be hammered, you'd see diesel rise there. So it
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: doesn't even get diesel down everywhere, and it won't help
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: in the Midwest. So that's why I'm still a little skeptical.
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: We have Brett Erickson, by the way. He's an oil
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: analyst with Obsidian Technologies. advisors, and we asked him for
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: a short explanation of why the kind of across-the-board energy
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: analysts are against this.
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: Let's roll that.
• 7:28
  Speaker 7: The problem with the Trump administration's proposed diesel export ban
• 7:33
  Speaker 7: or restriction is not the fact that every industry expert
• 7:38
  Speaker 7: seems to be entirely opposed to it. It's the fundamental
• 7:42
  Speaker 7: logic of it. We're at a time now where we
• 7:46
  Speaker 7: are seven months into the Iran war.
• 7:49
  Speaker 5: U.S.
• 7:49
  Speaker 7: Diesel prices are up 80% compared to where they were
• 7:53
  Speaker 7: last year. Okay, so maybe we can bring it down
• 7:56
  Speaker 7: to 75% or 70%. Or maybe, and most likely, it
• 8:02
  Speaker 7: makes everything far worse. And what is the Trump administration
• 8:06
  Speaker 7: getting in exchange? A tiny, tiny bump at the midterm polling?
• 8:15
  Speaker 7: In exchange, again, we're spinning an economic roulette wheel recklessly,
• 8:19
  Speaker 7: I might add, and at the expense of countries around
• 8:23
  Speaker 7: the world that had absolutely no interest in this war
• 8:28
  Speaker 7: of choice being waged.
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: In the first place.
• 8:30
  Speaker 7: So Trump is essentially pinning all of the burden on
• 8:34
  Speaker 7: the shoulders of people around the world to get a marginal,
• 8:40
  Speaker 7: at best, boost at the midterm polls. And Frankly, I
• 8:44
  Speaker 7: just find that to be fairly reprehensible. You broke it.
• 8:48
  Speaker 7: You need to bear the responsibility for breaking it and
• 8:52
  Speaker 7: not recklessly spin an economic theory roulette wheel, which if
• 8:57
  Speaker 7: it lands on red, will just make everything so much worse.
• 9:00
  Speaker 7: And that seems to be what everyone.
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: Is indicating right now.
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: So, Crystal, you hear that, and you're like, well, actually,
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: maybe Trump will do it.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: He certainly doesn't give a shit about that argument.
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: But the Russian roulette part is the key part to
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: tease out there. What he means there is that Trump
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: has pushed the global economy to the brink of implosion.
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: And we don't know exactly what is going to be
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: the trigger that sends it into crisis mode. You know,
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: if we're watching documentaries about it five years from now,
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: we'll know the exact thing that broke the global financial
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: system and created whatever crisis we're in five years from now.
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: Right now, all we can know is that you're putting
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: several bullets in several chambers by doing this.
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: And maybe they go off, maybe they don't. And for what?
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: His point is a very interesting one there. Okay, diesel's
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: up 80%. Doing this is going to pull it down
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: maybe to 75%.
• 9:56
  Speaker 5: Like, it's.
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: Still super high.
• 10:00
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: And for what? You might blow everything up.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, the reason that I'm concerned he actually will
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: do it is because according to Politico, his thinking is like, well,
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: those problems that you're laying out there, those are December issues.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: That's how he put it. That's how short term president.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: I know you're still president, but he's and, you know,
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: he has this mentality that I keep coming back to
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: that he reportedly expressed to Tucker Carlson of like. It
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: always works out. It'll work out because it always does.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: He always doubles down. And sometimes it does blow up
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: in his face. I mean, how many bank business bankruptcies
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: and catastrophes and his approval ratings are now at the
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: lowest level of either of his terms, including after January 6th.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Like that's where he's at. So there is this idea
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: that nothing ever sticks to him. That's over and gone.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: He has the lowest. I mean, he's George W. Bush,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: not just after Iraq, but after Katrina. That's where we're
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: at right now. So in any case, yes, I think
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: he is inclined to always take the risk.
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: Live another day.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Live another day. This will get me– this will buy
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: me maybe a week. And you kind of see it
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: with his pledge for this $ 5, 000 deal. that he desperately
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: threw out there at the GOP convention, thinking that might
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: change the calculus on the midterms. It didn't at all.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: He somehow managed to make the American people opposed to
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: literal free checks, which is incredible. So I'm not even
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: sure if he does this insane thing that he's going
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: to get any political benefit at all, because it does
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: reek of irresponsibility. It reeks of desperation. And meanwhile, while
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: you have the truckers and the farmers and a lot
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: of people in rural America drive diesel trucks, who will be,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: I guess, some of them will benefit from a minor
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: price improvement for diesel. You will at the same time
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: have the rest of people who are still going to
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: the gas pump and seeing prices go up and up
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: and up. So I'm not even convinced it will have
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: any positive impact for him on the midterms whatsoever. The
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: one reason I think maybe he wouldn't do it is
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: to put a three up on the screen. The oil
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: executives who funded his campaign to a very large degree,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: they are not happy. They say they are fearful that
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: they're losing the battle, but they said... In this piece,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: they say, you know, normally they have held their tongue
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: about anything Trump is doing because they want to stay
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: in his good graces. With regard to, remember, Venezuela, they
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: were all like, I don't know if this is going
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: to work out, but we'll just keep our mouths shut, etc.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Here they're saying this is important enough to them that
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: they're willing to go to the Wall Street Journal. They're
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: willing to speak out somewhat publicly and really try to
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: make the case. So, I mean, this might be one
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: constituency that actually has some sway with him, rich oil
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: executives who funded his presidential campaign. Although, I don't know,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: they need to start, I guess, funneling some money into
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: his crypto scam coin or something like that in order
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: if they really want this to land.
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, pay me. And also A4.
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: And Goldman Sachs' warning of the same thing that Trump
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: was kind of alluding to in his comments earlier. Their
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: analysis is that if you ban diesel exports, gas prices
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: go up. And basically for the reasons that we articulated here.
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: If you succeed in pushing down the price of diesel,
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: just by definition, you're going to then encourage... the refiners
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: down in the Gulf to do fewer runs of petroleum refinery.
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: And then you get less gasoline that gets refined. And
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: when you have less supply, you guys can finish the
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: rest of it. The price goes up.
• 13:22
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: And what the experts are saying is not that this
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: would be just like a market choice. This would be
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: a necessity because you very quickly run out of storage space.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: So if you're not exporting the product, You run out
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: of places to put it pretty quickly. And so you
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: have no choice but to cut back on what you're doing. Now,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: I do want to say that we had a lot
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: of experts who at the very beginning of the Iran
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: war were predicting $ 150 a barrel for crude, $ 200 a
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: barrel for crude. and those predictions have not borne out.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: So the experts have gotten some significant things wrong in
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: terms of their predictions about what exactly would happen in
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: the oil market. It's really worth keeping that in mind
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: as we evaluate their analysis now, and we're reliant on
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: that because I certainly know nothing independently about the way
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: that this market works outside of common sense. However, I
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: will say that your point, Ryan, that we've now pushed
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: things to the brink on so many levels, I think
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: is a really important one. The reason why those initial
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: analyses did not pan out is because we had a
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: lot more slack in the system that was originally anticipated.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: We had some level of reserves here and around the world.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: The big factor was China really reducing their buying in
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: the market. So that was a decrease in demand that
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: didn't require really painful demand destruction. So you had a
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: lot of those sort of factors that allowed more wiggle
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: room in the system than was anticipated. Well, that is
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: all gone now. So perhaps there's other flexibility in the
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: system that is not anticipated. Perhaps the market will react
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: in a different way than what these analysts are expecting.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: But there is good reason to believe that we could
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: be at that breaking point now. Sorry, pun not intended.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: But where all of those measures that they've taken in
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: the past, all of those sort of circumstances that lessened
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: the blow have now been exhausted and we could be
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: in a really bad situation.
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: Yes, very good point.
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: China, according to FT this morning, is at a critical
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: point with its own inventories.
• 15:27
  Speaker 6: Oh, really?
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they're announcing like, oh, this is Even they kind
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: of thought that this would be resolved a little bit sooner.
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: They and JP Morgan all assumed that there were some
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: red lines that would force the Trump administration to bring
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: an end to this thing. And they miscalculated. And so
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: now they're going to have to be buying at a
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: more significant clip. Obviously, they have the money that they
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: can do that. They prefer to be buying at $ 60
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: a barrel than $ 100 or $ 110. But they're going to
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: have no choice, like you said. And so that's the
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: kind of pressure that was expected.
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: Back in July or whatever.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: And Ryan, what do you think the impact internationally will be?
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Because as much as we focus on prices here and,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: you know, we're an American-centric show, the rest of the
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: world is going to be screwed. Like Europe is going
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: to be screwed, screwed. Because they were like, you know...
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: We were sort of the diesel exporter of last resort. Russia, obviously,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: not only have they stopped buying from them, but now
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Russian capacity has also taken offline, of course, what's going
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: on in the Middle East. So you are going to
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: see this part, I'm definitely convinced of skyrocketing diesel prices
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: around the globe, outside of America. What is that? What
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: impact do you think that has longer term? on their
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: relationship with the U.S., on the dollar as the world's
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: reserve currency, on the petrodollar, all those sorts of things.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: What sort of domino effects do you think we could have?
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: I think it's stuff we won't expect.
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: Lula, for instance, might lose in Brazil over inflation driven
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: by energy prices. He has an election coming up against
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: Bolsonaro's kid. Macron just called for the G7 to meet
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: over releasing a whole bunch more oil reserves because they
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: are just going to absolutely get killed going into the winter.
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: Maloney in Italy.
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: They're talking about, let's build a nuclear power plant. Obviously,
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: that's not going to help this winter. But they're rethinking
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: the entire structure of their energy industry. This double whammy
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: of basically, you blow up Nord Stream, cut off access
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: to cheap Russian energy, and then the U.S.
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: Goes to war with Iran and blows that up.
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: Because they were more reliant on Iranian energy than we
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: were necessarily, even though it's a global market.
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: So, yeah, I think they're all in trouble.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: Carbon emissions will continue to fall.
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: There you go. First time since COVID.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: And MAGA is pushing veggie burgers.
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: Yes, and eggs.
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: And not just let them eat cake, let them just
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: eat one ingredient in the cake.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Incredible stuff. All right, let's go ahead and get to
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: Logan Phillips and an update on the midterms. All right, guys,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: this morning we have Logan Phillips with Race to the
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: White House joining us. Great to see you, Logan. And
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: we're going to break down what's going on in the
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Senate big picture and wanted to do a special focus
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: because there's some new numbers out about how much Latino
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: voters seem to be shifting away from the Republican Party
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: and what that could mean. So great to see you, Logan.
• 18:33
  Speaker 5: Hey, it's great to be on, Crystal.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, of course. And we're going to have Logan on
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: regularly now between now and the midterm so we can
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: continue to break down these numbers and track how things
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: are shifting and, of course, on Election Day as well.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: So always excited about that partnership.
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: Hey, me too. Love to be on.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: All right, so let's go ahead and take a look
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: at your model. Let's put B3 up on the screen.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: We can see the map here. This is the Senate map,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: which most people have been expecting for a while. The
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: House is likely to go Democratic. The Senate, to begin with,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: it was like, oh, there's no way. the landscape is
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: too difficult. You have to win places like Alaska, win
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: places like Texas, win places like Ohio. Now, suddenly, the
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: question is flipped to, you know, it looks like Democrats
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: have an edge in some of those states. And there
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: is an even possibility of, you know, a place like Iowa,
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: a place even like Nebraska with the independent candidate, a
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: place like Kansas, which would really be getting crazy. What
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: are you seeing in terms of your model in some
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: of the key states?
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: Yeah, it's been absolutely stunning how much things have changed
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: in the last two months, even the last two to
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: three weeks. But there's been a big lead open up
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: by Democrats. And often, sometimes it's about gaining in the
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: right places. And Democrats are doing particularly well for Latino voters,
• 19:41
  Speaker 5: and they're doing particularly well in the Midwest. And that's
• 19:43
  Speaker 5: created a lot of good opportunities for them. And so
• 19:45
  Speaker 5: we're seeing in places all over the country, races that
• 19:48
  Speaker 5: have significantly moved in their direction. I remember early on,
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: I got a lot of anger online because I thought
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: that John Ossoff was favored in Georgia. I will be honest,
• 19:57
  Speaker 5: I did not see the map looking like this at
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: this stage in the election.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: I don't think anyone did.
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: People were mad at you for that. I'm like, that's Oh,
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: pretty straightforward claim.
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: Like, yeah, you know, people always assume if you just
• 20:07
  Speaker 5: won the last election, you're just going to keep winning
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: everything forever. And they forget the midterms are always, almost
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: always a massive check on the party in power. And
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: it takes them like a year to get used to that.
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: So Republicans are talking about leaving Georgia and North Carolina.
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: It seems like at this point, uh, and all of
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: a sudden have to pay attention to places like, uh,
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: like you said, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, let's talk about some
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: of these. What about, so what about Nebraska? Why are
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: we only lean at this point? Like Dan Osborne in
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: the polls that have been out seems to be actually
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: ahead of Ricketts.
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: So what is it? Is it just the fundamentals and
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: people being like, they're just, it's just impossible.
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: Well, polling's not the only signal we're looking at here.
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: It is a huge sign that this race is competitive,
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: but like it shouldn't be because this is a state
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: that I think Trump won by like close to 30%.
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: Now in the same year, Osborne only lost by 7%.
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: And in theory, this political environment should be more than
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: seven points worse for Republicans. That would only be like
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: a 5.5 edge in the national popular vote for House
• 21:13
  Speaker 5: races for Democrats for that to happen. So he certainly
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: got a chance, but it is really hard to overperform
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: the rest of your party by those types of numbers.
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: It becomes a little more possible when you look at
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: the fact that throughout the Midwest. And this time around,
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: we're not talking about just the Midwest of Michigan and
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which isn't Midwest, but gets thrown around
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: like it is. We're actually talking about the greater Midwest
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: in places like Kansas and Nebraska. There seems like a
• 21:38
  Speaker 5: genuine big movement for Democrats this cycle, at least from
• 21:41
  Speaker 5: what we're seeing in the polls. And whether it's as
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: strong as the polls are showing, no way to know
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: until election day. But I think it makes some sense
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: because these are places that have a lot of farmland
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: that are getting hit particularly hard by the tariffs and
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: the rise in diesel prices and gas prices.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and stick with the Midwest, put B5
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: up on the screen, because this raised a lot of
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: eyebrows yesterday. So Steve Deese, who's a conservative radio host,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: is that right? He said yesterday, Iowa House Republicans were
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: informed by their own pollsters that if you are in
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: a plus 15 district, You're in the margin of error.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: If you're in a plus 10 district, you are underwater.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: And this might end up being an even worse midterm
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: environment than 2006 when Democrats just, you know, went on
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: a tear. And that really set up for the Obama era.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: What do you make of this? Are we getting Ann
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Selzer here again in Iowa? Or are there reasons to
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: believe that districts that are plus 15 Republican may actually
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: be in play in the state?
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: Well, part of this is that there is a bigger
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: lead for Democrats in the national polling if the polls
• 22:46
  Speaker 5: are actually right than any year since 1986. Wow. We're
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: talking about 40 years here. So on paper, it would
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: be bigger than 2006. And again, these things are localized, right?
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: Like Iowans are the state in the state that has
• 23:01
  Speaker 5: been hit the single hardest by tariffs. And so the
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: Iran war is a big part of this. But I
• 23:07
  Speaker 5: think there's like a particular frustration for states like that.
• 23:10
  Speaker 5: that is like, we thought the tariffs were over. They
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: don't know necessarily the average voter, if it were Trump
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: making a change in decision versus the court. But now
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: it comes back again with Canada, our friend and ally.
• 23:20
  Speaker 5: And if you're a farmer who knows other farmers that
• 23:23
  Speaker 5: might have committed suicide, because this is happening sometimes, because
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: people can't afford to keep their family farm going anymore,
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: and they wanted to pass it on to their kids,
• 23:30
  Speaker 5: and they just feel hopeless. That type of thing is
• 23:33
  Speaker 5: going to move you. It's going to move everyone. And
• 23:35
  Speaker 5: so it is clear that the president's made this problem
• 23:38
  Speaker 5: a lot worse for them, even if For voters that
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: really like Trump, they're not stupid. They can see this
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: wouldn't necessarily be happening if he didn't go down this path.
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: And so for a lot of people, even if they're
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: not swarming the Democratic Party, they're looking for ways to
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: check Republicans. Yeah.
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: So what about Mississippi?
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: Scott Collum, extremely talented politician who was— I' m not even paying
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: attention to the race, and I can tell how hard
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: he's working. He wants to win this, and he thinks
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: he has a shot. What would have to happen in
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: Mississippi for us to, on election night, be looking at
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: each other and be like, wait a minute, Mississippi?
• 24:17
  Speaker 5: That would be the mother of blue waves. It would
• 24:19
  Speaker 5: mean the Democrats are being underrated. Is it possible this year? Yes,
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: but it's certainly not likely. It's sort of in the
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: range of you have like a 10% chance of this
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: type of win, right?
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: Could you ever imagine yourself saying there was a 10% chance?
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: Of a Democrat winning in Mississippi post-1960s? Well, post-1990s or whatever?
• 24:40
  Speaker 5: I would have expected a lot more signs before this year. Now,
• 24:43
  Speaker 5: we did run competitive last time, but it's just such
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: a hard state to win that, you know, the reality
• 24:50
  Speaker 5: is that when you win by this much, there's always
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: going to be something crazy that happens, right? There was like,
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: That seat in Oklahoma in 2018, the Democrats picked up
• 24:57
  Speaker 5: in deep, deep red territory. And you even had one
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: for Democrats with Washington, third for Maria, including Conn Perez,
• 25:05
  Speaker 5: that I think I had a 7% chance. Most people
• 25:07
  Speaker 5: had a 2% chance. Not very often I claim 7%
• 25:11
  Speaker 5: chance as a win when I get it right. But
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: there's always going to be one every cycle. And so
• 25:17
  Speaker 5: this is now big enough for Dems that it's, I mean,
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: like he should be fighting for it. If you're ever
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: going to win Mississippi, this is the year. But still,
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't count on it.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: My understanding of why Mississippi is so hard, it's not
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: because Trump or the Republicans win Mississippi by the largest
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: margin because they don't, but the partisanship is so racialized
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: in the South and in Mississippi in particular. So you
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: have close to 40% of the state who are either
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: Black or Latino And so you get a large, you know,
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: fairly large percentage that are Democratic voting. But then the
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: white majority population is just so hard Republican that it's
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: very hard to penetrate. So the question will be whether
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: the Democratic candidate can make any inroads there. I do
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: want to turn to some of these numbers with Latinos, which,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: you know, one of the big stories of the Trump
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: era is. has been at the beginning, you had all
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: these predictions that Latinos were going to en masse begin
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: voting for Democrats because Trump's rhetoric around immigration was so aggressive,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: so harsh, so cruel, so, you know, so just sort
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: of vindictive and racialized that they would all vote en
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: masse for Democrats the way that Black voters tend to.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: And that has not panned out. You've seen Trump perform
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: quite well with Latinos, better than expected in 2016, way
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: better than expected in 2024. However, put me one up
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: on the screen. This appears to be a part of
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: the coalition that is really collapsing. Now, every group has
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: collapsed to Trump except for white evangelicals. However, you know,
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: this strength that he had in 2024 with Latinos and,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: you know, not to essentialize because there's this is a
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: very diverse population in and of itself. But that seems
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: to really be falling apart. New York Times took a
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: look at, based on their polling, they dug into the
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: individual districts in Florida and Texas to see what their
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: polling indicated about this shift. And it's quite extraordinary. You know,
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: in Texas, you have a district that is moving up
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: to 31 points Democratic in part based on the Latino population. Florida,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: you've got districts that are moving 25, 20, 13 points
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: towards Democrats because of this shift as well. And Logan,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: a lot of these House districts were drawn by Republicans
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: with an assumption that they would at least hold on
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: to a little bit of those gains with Latinos. And
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: that may have turned out to be a foolhardy assumption.
• 27:37
  Speaker 5: Yeah, you're right, Crystal. They might have made a huge
• 27:39
  Speaker 5: mistake on their timing on this because they made a
• 27:43
  Speaker 5: game plan in 2022 when they were redrawing the maps,
• 27:46
  Speaker 5: or I guess in 21, that they were gonna play
• 27:48
  Speaker 5: it safe. It's not that Texans decided now we wanna
• 27:51
  Speaker 5: play hardball and start to gerrymander this cycle. It's that
• 27:55
  Speaker 5: they thought they were at risk and that their majority
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: was falling apart in Texas. And so the whole point
• 28:01
  Speaker 5: was to build a firewall of extra voters. So if
• 28:05
  Speaker 5: Democrats made extra gains, they wouldn't be able to dive
• 28:08
  Speaker 5: deeper into the state, right? So rather than maximize their
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: chance year to year, and that didn't work out. I mean,
• 28:13
  Speaker 5: they did fine in 2022 in Texas and 24, don't
• 28:15
  Speaker 5: get me wrong, but they didn't maximize their gains, right?
• 28:18
  Speaker 5: So now they got a little more confident because they
• 28:22
  Speaker 5: did well with Latinos in 22. They did amazing with
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: them in 24, barely lost them nationally. And so they
• 28:28
  Speaker 5: made an assumption that this was an enduring gain. But
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: the problem is, Republicans haven't really treated these voters with respect,
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: something they accuse, and I think justifiably so, Democrats of doing.
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: They got cocky, they stopped listening, and they took things
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: for granted. And so, A, a lot of these voters
• 28:42
  Speaker 5: are because they're a newer immigrant group on Earth. There's
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: a lot of newer immigrant groups among them, as often
• 28:47
  Speaker 5: happens in American history. They're disproportionately working class. They're affected
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: a lot more by cuts to health care. They're affected
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: a lot more by rising prices. And then in addition,
• 28:54
  Speaker 5: especially in places like Texas and Florida, they feel like
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: they're being racially discriminated against. And they wanted a secure border.
• 29:01
  Speaker 5: That's what moved a lot of voters in southern Texas.
• 29:03
  Speaker 5: They didn't want to have ICE going after everyone, not
• 29:07
  Speaker 5: following due process, seizing people that have documentation. And even
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: for people that aren't, they didn't want them to be
• 29:13
  Speaker 5: treated this badly or, you know, someone that they viewed
• 29:17
  Speaker 5: as not a threat, depending on the person, to be detained.
• 29:21
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: And so.
• 29:22
  Speaker 4: Going back to Crystal's point about Steve Deese talking about
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: how R-plus-15 districts are now competitive, R-plus-10 in Iowa, you're underwater.
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: So to your point, what did Texas Republicans do for
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: districts across Texas? R plus what? What did they basically
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: go for when they redrew the districts?
• 29:41
  Speaker 5: Yeah, they were trying to gain like five seats.
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: So each district, what was their target for a partisan
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: lean in a district to make it safe?
• 29:51
  Speaker 5: I don't know that off the cuff, guys. I'm sorry
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: to say.
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: But I think it was less than 10.
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: Yes.
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: In other words, if Iowa.
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: holds in Texas, if that same trend that Steve Deese observed,
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: because what you were saying is that Republicans lulled themselves
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: into a trap.
• 30:06
  Speaker 5: Yes.
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: Where they got overconfident.
• 30:08
  Speaker 5: Potentially. We're going to see what happens on election day.
• 30:09
  Speaker 5: They're just red flags that the scenario where this would
• 30:12
  Speaker 5: fall apart would be not just that they lost ground
• 30:14
  Speaker 5: with Latinos, not just they lost ground with voters. These
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: guys aren't stupid. They assumed that it was not going
• 30:19
  Speaker 5: to be a great year because almost every year in
• 30:21
  Speaker 5: midterm history, outside of literally right after 9-11.
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: But they didn't know about the war and they didn't
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: think it would be this bad.
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: So what you're saying is they drew the districts into
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: play for Democrats.
• 30:33
  Speaker 5: And I think they would have been fine if it
• 30:35
  Speaker 5: were just bad.
• 30:36
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: It's the laws of Latinos in particular. They were planning
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: for bad, not this.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: Not catastrophic.
• 30:41
  Speaker 5: But I'm saying it's not just that, it's who they're
• 30:44
  Speaker 5: losing the ground with, specifically the Latino voters, that would
• 30:47
  Speaker 5: make this a disproportionate problem. I mean, it would, like,
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: I think they're thinking along the lines of, Like, let's
• 30:53
  Speaker 5: not focus just on this year. They're also thinking for 28,
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: let's say, or if we lose the house by like
• 30:58
  Speaker 5: three or four, the popular vote by three or 4%,
• 31:00
  Speaker 5: what could potentially get us a win nationally?
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: Not what could, so, so you're right on that part,
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: but I think they were willing to say, okay, at
• 31:06
  Speaker 5: this point we would have lost the house anyway. So
• 31:08
  Speaker 5: this is about maximizing the chance in good years. So
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: maybe for 26, it ends up hurting them and they
• 31:14
  Speaker 5: do better in 28, right? Especially if they make up
• 31:16
  Speaker 5: ground off Latinos again, but yeah, For this year, there's
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: a possibility they lose seats, which is crazy given how
• 31:21
  Speaker 5: much advantage they have. In my forecast, they're on track
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: to lose a seat right now, which I did not
• 31:26
  Speaker 5: realize it was that dramatic. And in Florida, they're on
• 31:28
  Speaker 5: track to just hold ground, which was also really surprising
• 31:31
  Speaker 5: for me.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Ryan, I'm actually kind of curious your insights into Florida
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: because you have a lot of people in your life
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: personally and professionally with connectivity down there. I've been talking
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: to this candidate, Nicole Laughlin, who's actually in the district
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: that they show the 25-point shift based on the New
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: York Times polling there. And it's represented a long time
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: by Mario Diaz-Balart. This is the type of district that
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: you would think, no way. And when I started speaking
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: with her, I was like, you're going to have to
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: show me some. some possibility that you have a chance
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: at this seat before I start taking this seriously. And
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: this poll made me really pay a lot of attention,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: the one from the New York Times showing this shift.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: And when I talked to her, because her district is
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: something like 70% Latino, and there's a lot of Venezuelans
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: in her district, she said that they're very upset with
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: what has happened in Venezuela because these are the type
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: of people who want to see the regime overthrown, but
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: they did not want Delcy Rodriguez to still be in charge. Right.
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: So that has kind of taken the bloom off the
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: rose of Trump's hawkish approach both to Venezuela and to Cuba.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: And then you layer on top of that, Venezuelans and
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: Cubans in particular have long received sort of deferential treatment,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: even from Republicans, when it comes to immigration. And that
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: has not been the case under the Trump regime either.
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: So I think that has also changed some of the
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: orientation towards Venezuela. Trump and his immigration policies where it's like, oh,
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: you were talking about us too. Didn't get that before.
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: Yes, they were very convinced. And for legitimate reason, they
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: supported Trump. Like they donated to him. They voted for him.
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: They wore the red hats. Trump loved that he got
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: the support from the right-wing Cubans and the Venezuelans. And
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: so they thought that the ice crackdown was going to
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: go against other people.
• 33:20
  Speaker 6: Mm-hmm.
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: And they have felt shocked and betrayed that it is
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: coming after them as well. And there is a level
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: of racism among a lot of kind of right-wing Cubans
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: and Venezuelans toward other Latino groups that creates this situation
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: where you're like, wait a minute, oh, you see us
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: as just like them.
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: How dare you? How dare you treat us like them
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: who they treat with total contempt?
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Or like Afro-Caribbean groups.
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: Or, yes. Oh, my God.
• 33:56
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: Like, beyond.
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: Like, so, yes, they did not think that the crackdown
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: would hit them.
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: It's hitting them. And they are.
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: And exactly. They're not even getting... the liberation of Venezuela.
• 34:12
  Speaker 5: Out of it.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: Machado was not there.
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: It's just getting looted, and then Delcy becomes the president,
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: who they don't like either.
• 34:18
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: And then they're glad that Rubio is choking Cuba, but,
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: you know, Cuba's still, the Cuban government's still there.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: And I'm wondering, too, Logan, if there's kind of a,
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a very different dynamic in southern Texas. where,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: like you said, a lot of working class people, but it's,
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: you know, a lot of families that have been here
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: for generations and generations. And so there isn't as it's
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: a different group than, you know, Latino, like newly arrived immigrants.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: And there are a lot of people who work for
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Border Patrol and are actually quite, you know, relatively hawkish
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: on the border. But I think there is a similar
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: dynamic of just the level of racism and cruelty that
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: that's coming, it's like, oh, this is also about us.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: We're also being targeted here, even though there had been
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: a lot of support for a sort of strong enforced
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: border and the mass deportation policies, et cetera. And then really,
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: I think the big mover is the economic factors that
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: you were pointing to there.
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll be honest, Crystal. Sometimes I'm surprised by how
• 35:21
  Speaker 5: much folks in Maine or Michigan will be talking about
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: how much the chaos of the border affects them. I
• 35:27
  Speaker 5: think it's fair for people in southern Texas to say
• 35:29
  Speaker 5: that because it does there. And that's a big reason
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: they prioritize it so much. But they weren't asking for
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: the other extreme with all of this cruelty. And it's
• 35:40
  Speaker 5: not shocking, even though it seems to be surprising, some
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: on the president's team, that if you persecute a community,
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: if you make them feel unsafe in their own homes...
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: They're not going to be happy about it.
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: Let's talk real quickly about this new poll from The
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: New York Times. They have Abdul El-Sayed up, I think, four.
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: They have Pappas up by like five in New Hampshire.
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: So Democrats happy about that. But they have Susan Collins
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: up 49, 46 in Maine. Maine suffering from the heating
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: oil crisis. Maine suffering from the trade war. with Canada. Yet,
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: Susan Collins maintaining a lead. What's your assessment there?
• 36:27
  Speaker 5: Boy, I would never... I don't know how the Democrats
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: favored in the Senate. I don't know where it's going
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: to be after I add this main race. It's already,
• 36:34
  Speaker 5: I think, in toss-up terror. I'm going to go back
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: into it if it isn't right now.
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: You have 67% chance right now.
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: Yeah, it's going back to toss-up because I'm going to 65%
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: for sure. And I think that... I never thought a
• 36:44
  Speaker 5: year ago that I would say that Democrats would be
• 36:46
  Speaker 5: favored to win the Senate With Susan Collins having a
• 36:49
  Speaker 5: really good chance to win anyway. But the reality is
• 36:52
  Speaker 5: she is Democrat, Republican's Joe Manchin. She's outstanding at winning
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: races and overperforming. She has a long record of breaking
• 37:03
  Speaker 5: with her party in a way that you can point
• 37:05
  Speaker 5: to penny votes where she hasn't, especially this term of confirmations.
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: But she has a lot that she can say. And
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: she's very good at finding the right argument at the
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: right moment to say like that library over there. It's
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: because of the funds that I brought in. or this
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: vote I did to save parts of Obamacare, et cetera, right?
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: And we kind of have now a reverse Graham Plattner
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: in the Democratic nominee. He doesn't have any scandals. He's
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: kind of more of a normal politician and he's progressive.
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: So I think a lot of folks thought in the
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: rush of things, he'd be a good replacement, but he
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: also is the anti-Graham Plattner and they didn't necessarily have
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: the charisma either, the ability to move people. And so
• 37:39
  Speaker 5: I don't think he's turning people away, like running and
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: screaming or anything, but he doesn't, you know, It might
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: not be enough to beat Collins. Now, he absolutely can win.
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: I still think you've got to choose a side. I
• 37:50
  Speaker 5: would choose his. But she's good at this.
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: And on the Democratic side, it's so messy and the
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: campaign is so lackluster and a major financial advantage for
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: Susan Collins. I do wonder if after this latest corruption
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: scandal factors, because very likely this polling was done before
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: that hit. I wonder if that moves voters as well.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: We'll have to see because it's so contrary to their
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: image of her and their associations with her. So we'll see.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Last thing I'll say is this was this was interesting.
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: And I think, you know, as I'm looking at the polls,
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: because look, we've you know, we've had crazy Iowa polls before.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: We've had midterm cycles before. We're like, oh, my God,
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: this Kentucky is in play. Look at this poll. And
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: then it turns out to be a 30 point blowout
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: for Republicans or whatever. What is really making me feel
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: like this could be different is the way the Republicans
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: are behaving. And this is the latest example of this.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: So Roger Marshall, who is the senator in Kansas said,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: said this. We can add this in post. He put
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: this out yesterday on Twitter. He said, when ICE operates
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone.
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: Working together keeps officers and residents safe. I'm closely following
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: what's happening in southwestern Kansas have been direct contact with
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: Secretary Mullen, local law enforcement, as ICE executes warrants in
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: order to keep Kansans safe. So kind of pushing back
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: on ICE enforcement in Kansas, this comes as you've got
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: candidates who are suddenly who, you know, have been in favor.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: Mike Rogers has been in favor of the Iran war
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: for 20 years. Suddenly, I don't like this war at all.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: We need to stop it. We've got to do something
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: about gas prices. Ashley Hinson voted for the war multiple times.
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: Last week.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Suddenly, all of a sudden, I oppose this.
• 39:29
  Speaker 5: This is terrible.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: I don't support this at all. The way that Republicans
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: are behaving in this sort of panicked fashion and even
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: going so far as to push back on ICE in Kansas,
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: that is to me an indication that they at least
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: believe that the polling is real and that they are
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: in that kind of trouble.
• 39:45
  Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely. I would say two things to that, right? One,
• 39:49
  Speaker 5: That will help them to do those types of separations,
• 39:51
  Speaker 5: but only help them so much because voters aren't stupid.
• 39:54
  Speaker 5: It's the same thing people were saying about Democrats or
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: Latino voters. If you're only checking in like three months
• 40:00
  Speaker 5: before the election, they're kind of like, where were you? Well,
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: if you're starting to disagree with Donald Trump on ICE
• 40:04
  Speaker 5: or on the Iran war, but you've been there all
• 40:06
  Speaker 5: the time, they're going to be thinking, you know, it's
• 40:09
  Speaker 5: only a Google search away, a quick question on chat
• 40:11
  Speaker 5: GPT away. Like, why are you doing it in late September?
• 40:16
  Speaker 5: It's not going to seem like a coincidence if they're
• 40:19
  Speaker 5: paying some attention. No, not everyone is. And that's why
• 40:21
  Speaker 5: it can work to some degree. The second thing I
• 40:23
  Speaker 5: would say is there is a huge difference between this
• 40:25
  Speaker 5: and 2018, and it's about the map. 2018, 2024, those
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: are the maps from hell for Democrats because somehow they
• 40:31
  Speaker 5: kept winning these deep red states in ways that were
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: just impossible as the country was getting more polarized to
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: keep up in a blue wave. And eventually the magic
• 40:38
  Speaker 5: was going to wear off. It started in 2006, one
• 40:40
  Speaker 5: of their best cycles ever. Kept it in 2012 as
• 40:42
  Speaker 5: these guys narrowly just barely survived and then they lost
• 40:46
  Speaker 5: most of those seats in 18 and 24. This is
• 40:48
  Speaker 5: the map that they want this cycle on. They finally
• 40:50
  Speaker 5: might have the timing right because there's a lot of
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: soft red territory. I don't mean soft as in just
• 40:58
  Speaker 5: barely over the edge. I mean places that are somewhere
• 41:01
  Speaker 5: between six to like 15 points more Republican. Like Alaska.
• 41:06
  Speaker 5: Like Alaska. And that's new. Alaska and Kansas are the
• 41:09
  Speaker 5: two states that have moved the most towards Democrats. Kansas
• 41:12
  Speaker 5: has been tracking along at a slow rate towards Democrats
• 41:15
  Speaker 5: year after year after year. Interesting. And so it was
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: like not enough for them to be able to win normally.
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: If this continues, Kansas could be a swing state. Just
• 41:23
  Speaker 5: because it's moving doesn't mean it will in perpetuity. But
• 41:25
  Speaker 5: if you're talking about 12 years from now, it could
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: become a swing state.
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: Wow.
• 41:28
  Speaker 5: But this might be the cycle where it happens, where
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: now it used to be a state that was like
• 41:31
  Speaker 5: 25 points to the right. I think it's now like
• 41:33
  Speaker 5: 14 or so. So I think Republicans are still favored there,
• 41:36
  Speaker 5: but they have a really good candidate. Democrats that are
• 41:39
  Speaker 5: religious really do seem to overperform with being able to
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: win some conservatives over. And, I mean, they have the
• 41:44
  Speaker 5: preacher of the largest Methodist church in America who has done–
• 41:47
  Speaker 5: he's kind of like Tallarico in a way in that
• 41:50
  Speaker 5: he has a belief in a type of Christianity that
• 41:53
  Speaker 5: emphasizes a lot more about helping the poor. That's what
• 41:55
  Speaker 5: his church has done. They have these huge programs to help.
• 41:58
  Speaker 5: children when they can't afford books, when they need beds,
• 42:01
  Speaker 5: et cetera. And so for folks that are looking for
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: that type of Christianity that are naturally conservative, there's probably
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: part of the reason they're naturally conservative. This is something
• 42:10
  Speaker 5: they're not seeing often from some of their Republican leaders,
• 42:12
  Speaker 5: especially in this term as they've got food stamps and Medicaid.
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: And what about Alaska?
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: Mary Paltola, New York Times out with a ridiculous story
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: trying to make her look like a bad boss.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: I mean, Don't get me started.
• 42:25
  Speaker 5: I do have friends on the Hill who have been
• 42:28
  Speaker 5: treated poorly and I do have empathy for that. But
• 42:29
  Speaker 5: I also think that all of us know someone that
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: has lost their mother or their spouse. Have some humanity.
• 42:36
  Speaker 5: It's hard to be on your A-game mentally and to
• 42:38
  Speaker 5: not lose it at people sometimes when you're going through
• 42:40
  Speaker 5: the single toughest moment of your life.
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: Who among us has not lost it at people sometimes?
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: And these campaigns are very consequential. They're high stakes.
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: Her husband died in a plane crash. And then her
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: mother died within weeks.
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: I can't even imagine what that would feel like. And
• 42:53
  Speaker 5: in a plane crash, like losing someone to cancer is
• 42:55
  Speaker 5: a horrible thing, but at least you have time to repair.
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: A plane crash, the randomness of that, I think that
• 43:00
  Speaker 5: makes it twice as much.
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: And then to wait until September of a Senate election
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: year to air your grievances about how she treated you
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: and the depth of her grief.
• 43:08
  Speaker 5: I don't know what they're doing.
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: I always get yelled at for not having more sympathy
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: for the kids.
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: They're not kids.
• 43:15
  Speaker 5: They're adults.
• 43:16
  Speaker 6: Yes.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Very true. Very true.
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: Anyway, do you think Mary Peltola, like, I feel like this.
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: Is her year.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: I think it isn't helpful for her.
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: This, I don't know.
• 43:26
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: I think it might be helpful. You read it. You're like,
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: she seems like a real person.
• 43:30
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: This was not Amy Klobuchar stuff. This was just like
• 43:33
  Speaker 4: kind of normal person.
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: This just came out. So the thing of my barometer
• 43:37
  Speaker 5: in DC is I have to be careful how much
• 43:39
  Speaker 5: I listen to my friends here because it does lean left.
• 43:42
  Speaker 5: I have to hear what people that don't like Democrats
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: say that are like, but open to voting for them
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: because everyone I've talked to feels the same way you do.
• 43:51
  Speaker 5: I just need like an extra day or two before
• 43:53
  Speaker 5: I can have those conversations that just came out. I mean,
• 43:55
  Speaker 5: my instinct is that you're right.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: Our conservative voters are going to be really like, she
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: said the R word.
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: That's it. I was about to vote for her.
• 44:04
  Speaker 5: It's really if you're looking for excuses to not.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: That's hard for me to imagine.
• 44:07
  Speaker 7: I don't know.
• 44:08
  Speaker 5: Yeah. The reason I think I have some caution is
• 44:11
  Speaker 5: I do think that people are more freaked out by
• 44:14
  Speaker 5: women being abusive or angry bosses than they are about men.
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: I don't think they like it when men are like that.
• 44:19
  Speaker 5: But the consequence is a lot higher.
• 44:21
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: Although, to be fair, Klobuchar is extremely popular.
• 44:25
  Speaker 5: That's a very good point.
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think her presidential campaign was ever
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: going anywhere. I don't think that that was like the
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: death blow to it. But people freaking love that lady
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: in Minnesota.
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: In Alaska, they only like timid, courteous women like Sarah Palin.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: No, you guys make a good point. And maybe the
• 44:41
  Speaker 5: people that really care are Democratic primary voters more so
• 44:44
  Speaker 5: than the general elector.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, true. And I saw liberals online being like, you know,
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: gay men who were like, she can call me that
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: for it. I don't care.
• 44:51
  Speaker 7: Just win.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: So I think that's where a lot of Democrats are
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: at this point. Logan, we could talk to you forever.
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: Thank you so much. We'll have you back next week.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: So we'll continue to talk to you. Our conversation will continue.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: Always appreciate your insights.
• 45:02
  Speaker 5: Always appreciate being on, guys. Thanks.
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: Chinese Premier Xi Jinping arrived at Joint Air Base Andrews
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: last night, gifting us with just an absolutely incredible meme.
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: Did you see this, Crystal?
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: So he's standing on the tarmac with our glorious leader,
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: our fearless leader.
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: And a plane flies over.
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: Top.
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: The humiliation that continues to be laid up at the
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: feet of the American people just knows no end. Chairman Xi, who,
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: as always, many people know, grew up in a cave.
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: Literally.
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: He lived in a cave after the Cultural Revolution for
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: a long period of time. Not wincing at the airplane
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: flying over top. I saw it and I was like,
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: this has to be AI. Somebody just being a little
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: bit mean to Trump here.
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: Trump's face is ridiculous there, too.
• 46:07
  Speaker 4: So they will be meeting this afternoon. They have then
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: A ball without the ballroom, right.
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: At the White House.
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: They'll have a state dinner where there will be a
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: whole host of big tech titans and AI people, I guess,
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: trying to schmooze with Chairman Xi. Meanwhile, Massoud Prezeskian, the
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: Iranian president, spoke at the UN rather impassioned speech.
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: Let's roll a little bit of that.
• 46:37
  Speaker 6: Atomic and nuclear bombs are in the hands of the
• 46:40
  Speaker 6: Israeli regime, but the inspectors are requested to come to Iran.
• 46:46
  Speaker 6: Israel has murdered savagely over 70,000 innocents in Gaza, but Iran,
• 46:54
  Speaker 6: while behind the table of negotiation, was bombed. Israel has
• 46:59
  Speaker 6: the bombs, has weapons of mass destruction, not a member
• 47:02
  Speaker 6: of the nonproliferation treaty. during her shameful life has not
• 47:07
  Speaker 6: allowed a single inspection, but they are rewarded by all
• 47:11
  Speaker 6: the means necessary for them to be able to bomb
• 47:14
  Speaker 6: any capital in the region at will.
• 47:16
  Speaker 4: You know, Crystal, last year when Pozeshkin was in New
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: York for the same week of UN meetings, I was
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: in a press briefing with him.
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah. And he was talking about the recent books that
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: he'd read. He's big into literature.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: And he was what Trump discusses as well. Yeah.
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: And he was waxing very poetic about life.
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: And he really gave off the this sense. And I
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: remember this kind of an eerie feeling of feeling feeling
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: like I was in the room with a walking dead
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: man like that. That somebody it was somebody who knew
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: he was going to be assassinated at some point soon.
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: And he didn't know when. Wow.
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: And he didn't want it. He said, I don't want
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: this to happen. Like, this is not what I want.
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: But he also, I think, saw no, like, I suppose
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: he could run to Russia or something and try to
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: live out his life that way.
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: But he didn't want to do that.
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: And he was just a literature-loving politician who happened to
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: win the Iranian presidential election at the time when All
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: of a sudden, the U.S. is deciding it's going to
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: assassinate everybody who's involved with the Iranian government.
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: It was such an eerie feeling. It's like, this is
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: so crazy.
• 48:35
  Speaker 4: And yet, here he is a year later back in Iran.
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: And I remember we kept thinking, OK, Trump is meeting
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: with Xi September 24th. This has been on the books
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: for months. We're like, surely he has to have this
• 48:52
  Speaker 4: war wrapped up.
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: By then.
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: It would be too embarrassing and too weird and get
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: in the way of his agenda that he has with
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: Xi for this still to be going on. I don't
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: know why we thought that because clearly he still can
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: be doing it.
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: And he is.
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: And Pozeshkin still alive. Now they murdered most of the government,
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: but he survived.
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: And here he is again.
• 49:17
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: And I think... at the time of the MOU, there
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: was this sense of this is probably, this is basically
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: a surrender document, as John Mearsheimer calls it. However, this
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: is the best possible option. And can Trump sublimate his
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: ego enough to hold the L? And that was always
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: the question. And I was pretty skeptical that he would
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: be able to. But on the other hand, you look
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: at it, well, the other option is also impossible. So
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: now we're in this in-between zone where the economic pressure
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: continues to ratchet up. You know, Trump, for all of
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: his talk about, oh, I don't care about the midterms,
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: who cares, and even said something to that effect in
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: his U.N. speech, clearly does. If he's thinking of doing
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: some little damn it, we've got to do something insanity
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: with diesel export ban and, you know, also floating all
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: sorts of like election rigging schemes and all these sorts
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: of things and doing his RNC down in Texas. Like,
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: clearly he does care. So I think, you know, the
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: sense that now the midterms are this very consequential date.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: has become quite prominent, whereas previously we're thinking about this
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: deadline meeting with Xi as a very prominent date. I'll
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: say also this morning, the markets are reacting to the
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: fact that there was apparently some sideline meeting with the
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: Iranian president that appears to have resulted in absolutely nothing,
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: no surprise there. So whatever hopium was floating around out
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: there that, oh, maybe this will be the beginning of
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: some restarted talks, I think has been already pretty crushed.
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: Right, and so that's a good point that people who
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: are looking at the midterms as some reason that is
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: going to force him to end this should reflect on
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: how we were looking at the meeting with Xi as
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: a reason that he would end this. And yeah, the
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: Iranians seem to have baked in an assumption that he's
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: not going to end it and they're just going to
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: have to last.
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: For two years.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: Well, little more than two years until he's out of
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: office due to term limits. and presumably replaced by somebody
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: who ends the war. That seems to be their best
• 51:26
  Speaker 4: thinking at this time.
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: Well, at least as far as I can tell, and
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: you can correct me if I'm wrong, but their analysis
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: of what America is likely to do has been pretty prescient. Yeah,
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, going back to what you were saying about
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: last year, the Iranian president being like, I'm probably going
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: to get murdered, not saying that outright, but that being
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: the vibe. And while he was not personally assassinated, there
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: was certainly a desire to assassinate him. and much of
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: the top leadership was. We're also getting a greater look
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: now at some of the horrific impacts of this war
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: on our own service members. We've got more details, put
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: C3 up on the screen, about the U.S. carrier group,
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: the Lincoln that we did, you know, we covered so
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: much reporting on the horrific conditions, how long they were,
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: you know, they were out and just the suffering on board.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: Now we know that there were eight sailors as part
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: of that carrier group who attempted suicide. during this deployment,
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: which is wild. And this is not, you know, this
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: is not inside reporting. This was told to Congress by
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: the acting Navy Secretary Hung Kau based on questioning from
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: a member of Congress. So just horrific to imagine. And also, obviously,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: in terms of our capacity to sustain this conflict. You know,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: it's not only the USS Lincoln that the crew members
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: were suffering. This speaks to the fact that, number one,
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: our bases were obliterated. And so our plan for provisioning
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: and supplying these ships was also obliterated. And the fact
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: that we are stretched so incredibly thin here that we
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: are requiring service members to have this length, extraordinary, like
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: unprecedented length of deployment and what that does to them,
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: what that does to our equipment, et cetera. So it's
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: a sign of how poorly planned this was and also
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: how this did not go according to whatever plan existed
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: to begin with.
• 53:18
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: And the bond market continuing to just blow up and
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: put up C4. up to 5.125% on the 10-year yield,
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: highest in an extremely long time. I can put up C5,
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: New York Times, is the biggest jump, biggest one-day jump.
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: And you can just look at the chart there, like
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: absolutely brutal. And what, if you may or may not
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: know this about the bond market, when interest rates go up,
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: the price of bonds goes down dramatically. That's because if
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: you hold a bond with a lower yield, it's now
• 53:56
  Speaker 4: worth less because you can go out in the market
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: and get the same type of bond with a better
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: interest rate. So the one that you're holding.
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: Is worth less.
• 54:06
  Speaker 4: So in other words, if two weeks ago when interest
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: rates went to 5%, you went out and bought some
• 54:13
  Speaker 4: 10-year bonds, you have taken a bath on those bonds.
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: What you bought is worth a lot less, which means.
• 54:23
  Speaker 4: People are getting burned buying U.S. government debt. And the
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: more people get burned buying U.S. government debt, the less
• 54:29
  Speaker 4: people want to buy it.
• 54:30
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: We already have a situation where gold has overtaken U.S.
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: treasuries as being held by central banks around the world.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: This obviously ties in also to mortgage rates as well. So,
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: you know, I saw I think it was a Fox
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: Business host who was questioning a Republican and was saying, look,
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: you got mortgage rates of 7%. You got gas at
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: these high prices. You got inflation going up. How can
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: you possibly present to the American people that this is
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: all fine and these are the golden years? America's back.
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: And I don't think that person had a very good
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: answer to that because these are the things that, look,
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: you can look at the stock market. Stock market's doing great.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: But the things that people are actually dealing with in
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: their day-to-day life, can I afford a house? Can I
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: afford to fill up the gas tank on my car?
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: Can I afford beef at the grocery store? Or am
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: I reduced to beans and eggs or whatever the ag
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: secretary is pushing this week? Those are the sorts of
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: things that people have a daily experience with and you
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: can't gaslight them on. Even if, let's say that some
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: miracle occurred and there was some massive breakthrough and things
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: started to get better, there's also going to be an
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: overhang economically and an overhang politically because What we saw
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: with Kamala Harris when she lost is inflation was getting
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: was much better and it was headed in the right direction.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: But because people had been so dissatisfied with what had
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: gone on for the years of the Biden presidency, not
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: just here, but around the world, incumbents really faced this
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: massive backlash and punishment for their stewardship of the economy.
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: It is so painful to look at charts and data
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: from February of 2026, right before Trump launched the war.
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: Everything getting better. Everything moving in the right direction. Mortgage
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: rates coming down. Inflation coming down. Unemployment, jobs growth.
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: He just needed to do nothing.
• 56:17
  Speaker 7: Yes.
• 56:18
  Speaker 5: Just do nothing.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: Don't do the tariffs.
• 56:19
  Speaker 6: Do your ballroom.
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: Don't do the— yeah, just do your ballroom. Do the Trump,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: you know, whatever, the Arch and the Kennedy Center. Like,
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: just do that bullshit. But if you're doing that bullshit— and
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: I actually think that is an undersold part of how
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: much his ratings have cratered and why there is some
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: erosion even among his base— is you have, on the
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: one hand, him obsessing over the gilded ballroom while gas
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: prices are going up, and he's saying, go eat eggs.
• 56:45
  Speaker 5: Good luck. Yeah.