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Episode 369 - 10/8/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 369 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:36
Happy Wednesday. It's officially hump day.
0:39
That means we are halfway through our work week.
0:41
That means we're only one day away from the return of the
0:44
NFLI. Tell you what, guys, you go from
0:46
Monday to Thursday feels like forever, but that's OK.
0:49
Trying to make the most of some of these off days by picking off
0:51
some good numbers. We talked yesterday about a few
0:54
plays in college football for this upcoming week and I'm going
0:57
to focus on today a bunch of NFL early week six games.
1:01
So I got 3 here lined up for you.
1:03
I do have a comment and actually have a play on tomorrow's game,
1:06
Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants.
1:08
I wanted to talk about this a little bit second-half of the
1:11
pod here because I'm hoping you can bet it now.
1:14
I think if you wait, you might lose the hook or this key
1:16
number. So give me my my early bet here
1:18
for Thursday Night Football And don't worry, we'll have a full
1:20
breakdown for tomorrow's game on tomorrow's podcast.
1:24
But we're going to get right get right back to Major League
1:25
Baseball. It's a huge day in the MLB
1:28
postseason. There's four games all do or
1:31
dies here, so either we're going to get some do or winner take
1:34
all game fives or you know, some teams are going to punch their
1:37
ticket and go to the next round here.
1:38
So I do have one best bet officially.
1:41
I know there's a couple couple of college football games today,
1:43
but nothing really jumped out too much to me.
1:45
A couple leans but didn't want to force it.
1:47
And we're doing pretty decent with our MLB postseason plays.
1:50
More on that in a second because we did get our over last night,
1:53
which was nice, and the Toronto and the Yankees game, but one
1:56
play in Major League Baseball for tonight.
1:58
We're also going to again talk about 3 early NFL plays for this
2:01
weekend. And then also I wanted to
2:04
mention a NHL points bet. So points total, you know, when
2:08
you're talking about, you know, baseball, you know basketball,
2:11
football, it's always win totals.
2:13
Well hockey it's point totals. So you get 2 points for a win.
2:16
Obviously you're getting one point for an overtime loss or
2:19
shootout loss, but there was one team with they're expected to be
2:22
pretty bad. They're near and dear to my
2:24
heart, but I think they might go over this win total.
2:27
So I want to give you some insights into a NHL points total
2:30
bet that I that I put in last night and I'll be sweating and
2:34
having a rooting interest on all season long.
2:36
So and we'll be post season NFL week 6.
2:40
Little bit of hockey talk here for today on episode 369 of the
2:44
ASG pod powered by rhythm. Now I mentioned a second ago,
2:48
but what a nice hit last night with that over.
2:51
Then the Yankees game. We had a nice start there with
2:54
Toronto Blue Jays hitting A2 run Homer, Vlad Guerrero junior and
2:58
the top of the first Yankees tacked on a a bunch of runs and
3:01
they got to beat the Biebs and ended up being a pretty, you
3:05
know, easy sail over and again, nothing's easy in sports
3:07
betting, but a nine to six game. They score 15 runs at a couple
3:11
people I respect. And we remember we talked on the
3:13
pod like man, Yankees have that line move like -145 up to -170
3:18
they look pretty good with their splits as well.
3:20
But Toronto would be a divisional dog postseason again.
3:24
Toronto has been looking good. So I just wanted no part of that
3:27
side. But a few sharps I knew who
3:29
played the Yankees and man, if you if you if you stuck with
3:32
that bet epic comeback for New York.
3:35
But all we cared about was that over and remember it was 7 F up
3:38
to 8. You could have still gotten that
3:39
7 1/2 / -, 125 -, 130 at ESPN bet Luckily what even if you
3:44
played the 8 didn't matter because you sailed over with
3:47
that one with a wind blowing out system match.
3:50
So good to go 1 and O + 0.83 units last night in Major League
3:54
Baseball. So turning the page here for
3:57
today guys. Let's do some baseball one play
3:59
tonight. Then I want to get to these
4:01
football games coming up for tomorrow and on Sunday and then
4:04
I'll give you my my NHL points total bet.
4:07
So one play on the board for me. I'm going to focus on Major
4:10
League Baseball and I'm going to go right back to the Bronx where
4:13
the New York Yankees are hosting the Toronto Blue Jays with their
4:16
season on the line. If you haven't been paying
4:19
attention, Yankees got down 2O in this series.
4:21
They won last night to make it 2 to one.
4:23
They got to win tonight and then send this series back to Toronto
4:27
and I'm going to bank on the Yankees winning tonight.
4:29
So my play is Yankees money line.
4:31
Shop around. I got the Yankees money line a
4:34
little bit earlier today at -172 So if you look at the current
4:38
numbers here, always trying to have multiple outs, shop around,
4:41
get the best price, but -172 is pretty much your best number.
4:45
I see some books as high as -175 -, 180 and even see ESPN bet
4:51
-185 So again, you have a big discrepancy where you can save
4:56
quite a few cents of juice here by playing it at the best book,
4:59
giving you the best price. So for me, that was FanDuel, but
5:02
the cap here for me, it's pretty simple.
5:04
Now you might just say, hey, you know, Yankees are down 2 to one,
5:08
They're going to win tonight, force a game five.
5:09
So the play is just, you know, play a desperate team here at
5:12
home. But you don't want to just bet a
5:14
game because of just, you know, kind of, you know, team being
5:18
due or, you know, your feelings of hey, they just got to win
5:20
tonight because typically that's a that's a, you know, kind of a
5:23
dangerous scenario. But if it's a data-driven play
5:26
with a line move, good splits and system matches and it
5:28
happens to be a do or die, then I'm going to play it.
5:32
So the Yankees would match in the spot 1st.
5:34
I want to talk about the pitching match up because I
5:35
think there's a big reason why you're seeing this big line move
5:38
toward New York. The Yankees open like -155
5:42
again, they're up to -170 even as high as -185 And look at the
5:46
pitching match up for the Toronto Blue Jays.
5:48
We have Louis Varland on the bump.
5:51
They picked him up in a trade. I believe it was with it was
5:53
with Minnesota at the deadline here.
5:56
He had a pretty good regular season overall.
5:59
He was four and three, 2.97 ERA. But things a tough spot for
6:03
Varlin because number one, he's kind of getting overworked here.
6:07
I mean, this is his fourth appearance in this series.
6:09
He's pitched in every game. Last night he went one inning,
6:12
gave up two runs. So in the series, just
6:15
postseason overall 2.2 innings pitched, 2 earned runs, 6.75
6:20
ERA. On the other hand, we have the
6:22
legend of Cam Schlittler again, you know, watch, watch how you
6:27
say, because some people are getting in trouble.
6:28
Big Papi. Yeah, if you want to, if you
6:30
want to check out Twitter. He pronounced it in a way you
6:32
probably don't want to pronounce it on live TV.
6:35
Maybe not the way you're thinking.
6:36
But anyway, Kim Schlittler, I can tell you just from obviously
6:40
my Red Sox season coming to an end, he pitched an absolute gem
6:44
in the wild card round. 8 innings, no runs, 12 KS Won that
6:48
game for nothing against the Red Sox.
6:51
But if you look at him overall, 1 and O0 ERA this postseason.
6:55
But he had a good regular season, 4 and three, 2.96 ERA.
6:59
And the other angle for me with Cam Schlittler is that he's
7:02
rested. Like Varland.
7:03
He's an opener. That means it's going to be a
7:05
bullpen day for Toronto. And then also he's pitched a lot
7:09
versus Cam Schlittler, who hasn't pitched since Thursday,
7:13
August or sorry, October 2nd. So he's been pretty much off for
7:16
six days. A little bit of extra rest for
7:19
Schlittler. Then we look at the line move.
7:21
As I mentioned, line is getting steam toward the Yankees -155 up
7:25
to -170 -, 185. You also look at the splits
7:28
here. DraftKings has 66% bets, 74%
7:33
dollars on the Yankees. And then if you look at Circa,
7:36
this is kind of incredible. 50% bets 99% of the money on the
7:41
Yankees. So Yankees have a low bets
7:43
higher dollar split. Little bit of pro and Joe, but
7:45
heavy, heavy betting. And I always like when circus
7:47
got a really, really pronounced low bets higher dollar split.
7:50
That tells me the sharps in Vegas circus not going to limit
7:53
them or kick them out. They take their money.
7:56
Which is why if you go to circle, you can get a T-shirt
7:58
that says circus sports on the front.
8:00
I actually have one and it says sports betting the way it should
8:03
be on the back. Again, this is something that
8:08
that you know, always mention here with man, what did I want
8:12
to say mention here with not limiting action and and kind of
8:17
taking in respected money. Billy Walters.
8:19
That's that's the name I was blanking on.
8:20
How can you blank on the Michael Jordan of sports betting?
8:23
But he always said, you know, the sports sports books would
8:27
limit him because he won so much and it makes sense.
8:30
You don't want to let a winning better continue to take your
8:32
money. But then also the the smart
8:35
sports books, Billy Walters mentioned this and he went on
8:38
Joe Rogan and you can if you ever want to listen to it's
8:40
really, really cool. Maybe a couple years ago at this
8:42
point, But he's talking about how the good smart sports books
8:45
liked Billy Walters betting with them because it would quote UN
8:47
quote, open them up, which gives them insight into which way the
8:51
sharps are going. So circuit does it the right
8:53
way. And anytime I see a 50% bets,
8:55
99% money split told me big money here on the Yankees out in
8:59
Vegas. Then we get to some other
9:01
factors here in terms of system matches.
9:04
One would be just postseason favorites.
9:06
Historically, it's been really chalky and especially this
9:09
season, postseason favorites are 15 and 671 percent, 20% ROI.
9:17
And if you look in particular home favorites, they're 11:00
9:19
and 4:00. So home favorite would match in
9:21
the spot with the Yankees. Then if you look at steam in the
9:24
postseason, this is really interesting because again, you
9:27
see a big line move and you're like, man, definitely a good
9:29
sign. The sharps have hit that number,
9:31
caused it to to rise. But then also sometimes you're
9:34
like, man, it opened, you know -155 now it's -170 should I
9:39
still play it because I'm paying it more expensive price?
9:41
Sometimes you can kind of, you know, paralysis by analysis
9:44
there, maybe talk yourself out of a bet.
9:46
But it's actually been really good when you get big steam in
9:48
the playoffs since 2016. This is a pretty big sample size
9:51
going on 10 years at this point. If you see a team getting
9:55
steamed 15 cents or more, they've gone 81 and 41 in the
9:59
postseason. 66 percent, 18% ROI. If you'd bet 100 bucks on every
10:04
big steam move in the playoffs, you're up nearly $2300.
10:08
So that would also match with New York.
10:10
I also like the fact that couple supplementary angles, I popped
10:13
open the Juice Reel app and I noticed that Robo Jackson, the
10:17
hardest work in AI bought around Robo Jackson is an AI bought
10:21
that gives out two best bets every day.
10:22
If you sign up for Juice Reel, one of the two best bets is on
10:26
the Yankees money line. So I love seeing that.
10:28
And then I did also pop open Rhythm and rhythm has a
10:31
prediction of basically a 5 to 4 Yankees win.
10:35
So Rhythms with us, Robo Jackson and Juice Reel is with us.
10:38
We got 2 good system matches, we got good splits, we got good
10:41
steam, we got Yankees in a do or die spot, and we got a really
10:44
good pitcher who's rested against a reliever who's tired.
10:48
So you add it all up here, guys. I'm going with the Yankees.
10:51
Yes, I'm a Red Sox fan, but I'll be rooting for the Yanks here
10:53
tonight. I got New York -172 here on the
10:58
money line. Now looking toward tomorrow and
11:01
this upcoming NFL weekend. I wanted to mention real quick,
11:04
I'll have a full breakdown. So this is just going to be like
11:06
the Cliffs Notes version of tomorrow's game.
11:08
But I wanted to mention it because I wanted to make sure if
11:10
you, if you do want to play with me, that you get the hook.
11:13
And now we're looking at tomorrow night, Thursday Night
11:14
Football, Philadelphia Eagles at the New York Giants.
11:18
And I took Giants plus 7 1/2. Now, my reasoning for mentioning
11:22
this now is that there's a few books at Giants +7 and all of
11:27
the Giants plus 7 1/2's across the market are -115 -, 120.
11:32
So I would hate to just, you know, overlook this play or not
11:36
talk about it. Now, I did already put it in the
11:38
Juice Trail app. So if you follow me on the Juice
11:40
Trail app, $4.99 a week following the ASG podcast, best
11:45
bets you would have gotten this anyway.
11:47
But I want to make sure that if you want to play Giants with me,
11:50
you get the hook. And I would hate to, you know,
11:53
you know, go to bed tonight and then every book is at 7:00
11:55
tomorrow, which would be a good sign that big money is
11:58
continuing to go Giants. But also stink If they lose by
12:01
7, then you push your seven when you could have betted a day
12:04
earlier and got in the hook and, and covered that number.
12:07
But to me, the cap is pretty simple.
12:08
It's kind of a blueprint play. And all the Eagles are great.
12:11
Giants feels like they're not very good.
12:13
But let's trust the market here because this game opened -7 1/2
12:17
Philly. Philly is a huge public play and
12:19
a heavily bet game right now at DraftKings, they're getting 77%
12:23
of spread bets. However, they're not up to 88
12:26
and a half nine, their 7 1/2 juice toward New York and
12:29
they're even getting down to seven.
12:31
So that's a good sign that big money here has played the Giants
12:34
plus 7 1/2. Also, you look at Circa, only
12:38
26% of bets on the Giants, but 93% of spread dollars are on the
12:43
Giants. So tells me we have a good angle
12:45
here with a good bet split. Once again, like we just talked
12:49
about that Yankee split on the money line at Circa.
12:52
Well, that spread split on the Giants at Circa looks pretty
12:55
good here as well. Other angles that I'm looking at
12:59
the dog low total, so kind of a big dog low total told this one
13:02
is only 40 and you're getting a dog with the hook 7 1/2.
13:05
So always like dog low total, favorite high total.
13:09
Also be a primetime dog. Primetime dogs have treated us
13:12
pretty good this year. Knock on wood.
13:13
They're 11 and five against the spread, 69% covered with the
13:18
Patriots on Sunday. I got some good angles here with
13:21
Brian Day Ball as a dog divisional dogs that built in
13:24
familiar familiarity, leveling the playing field, benefiting
13:28
the team, getting points. They're 54% against the spread
13:32
since 2019. Dogs, big dogs getting 6 1/2 or
13:35
more. They are 11 and 9 ATS this year,
13:38
55%. And that's right at their
13:41
historical performance, 55 percent, 6% ROI since 2022.
13:46
And then lastly, aside from just a contrarian play in the sharp,
13:50
you know, line freeze, reverse line move, I have really good
13:52
rhythm edge. I popped open rhythm and I have
13:55
a green star highlighted recommended play on the Giants
13:59
plus 7 1/2. And guess what rhythm is
14:01
predicting Giants plus 5.8. So add it all up here, guys.
14:05
I know this is a game for tomorrow, but I'm going Giants
14:08
plus 7 1/2. I'll give you the full lengthy
14:10
breakdown spread in total on tomorrow's pod.
14:13
Also write about it in the Sharp report for visen.com.
14:16
But I am going Giants plus 7 1/2 with a good rhythm edge.
14:20
Rhythm says this game should be around a six point game.
14:22
You're against the public with a sharp reverse line move or line
14:27
freezer juiced upside with a lot of system matches.
14:29
So I'm on G Men plus 7 1/2 now looking toward the weekend.
14:35
Few games that caught my eye. I'll be honest with you guys, I
14:38
really like this late this weekend I'm going to give you 3
14:40
plays that I've officially already bet, but there could be
14:43
a few more here. Honestly, there's a few that
14:45
really are jumping out to me. Let's just talk about the top
14:48
three that I've already bet and have the place here in pocket.
14:52
First one, Chargers and the Miami Dolphins.
14:56
Now we've seen good sharp line movement toward Miami setting
14:59
the stage for this one. Chargers are three and two lost
15:02
to the Commanders 27 to 10 last week, losing out right as a
15:05
three-point home favorite. The Fins one and four just lost
15:09
to the Panthers 2724 losing out rate as a 1 1/2 point Rd.
15:13
favorite. So what have you seen across the
15:14
market here? Well, this game open Chargers as
15:17
high as a 5 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
15:19
And the public says this is a quote UN quote get right spot
15:22
for the Chargers because across the market they're getting 71%
15:26
of spread bets, but they open -5 1/2.
15:29
They're not up to six, six and half 7.
15:31
The sign is falling toward Miami plus 5 1/2 down to plus 4 1/2.
15:35
You even seeing some juiced up four and a halfs that are
15:37
getting down to four. So again, ask yourself if really
15:41
the big majority of tickets are on the Chargers, why is the line
15:44
falling toward Miami? Tells me Miami is the sharp play
15:47
here at DraftKings. Only 31% bets, 57% dollars on
15:51
Miami. At Circa, only 31% bets but 96%
15:56
of dollars on Miami. So once again, another Circa
15:59
Desert sharp split. And then we look at Tua.
16:02
Tua is 7 and three against the spread as a home dog in his
16:05
career. That's a 70% cover 8.
16:07
He's 7 and one against the spread, 88% as a dog when
16:11
getting 4 1/2 points or more. And I'm not playing Miami on the
16:14
money line, but Tua is 26 and nine straight up. 74% as a home
16:20
dog. Or sorry, he's 26 and nine
16:22
straight up at home in general, but as a home dog, 6 and 460%.
16:28
You could tease Miami up 4 1/2 up to 10 1/2.
16:32
But I'm going to go with Miami plus 4 1/2 here.
16:35
Again, you shop around because you can still, I believe find
16:38
Miami plus 4 1/2 at I think I got them at plus 4 1/2 -. 1 O 5.
16:43
And that was kind of an outlier. I forgot which book that was at.
16:49
I think it was. It looks like that might be gone
16:52
now, but a lot of books are 4 1/2 -, 115 -, 120, and I'm even
16:56
seeing a couple books down to 4 or 3 1/2.
16:59
So I'm going Dolphins here, public all over Chargers line
17:01
going to Miami. And oh, by the way, I popped
17:04
open Rhythm. Rhythm has 2 Green Star
17:06
recommended plays on Miami, one Miami plus 0.8 and plus 1.4.
17:13
So again, that's a really good edge.
17:15
Rhythms telling you it should be about a one point game.
17:18
We're getting 4 1/2. Give me 4 1/2 all day with
17:20
Miami. I got Miami Dolphins plus 4 1/2
17:24
early bet here for Sunday. Next one for you.
17:27
Let's look toward the Cowboys visiting the Carolina Panthers.
17:31
Another one o'clock game on Sunday.
17:33
Now Cowboys come in two, two and one.
17:35
I remember they have that tie 40 to 40.
17:38
Who was against the Packers just took down The Jets 37 to 3222
17:42
though easily winning outright as a 1 1/2 point Rd. dog.
17:46
You know the Panthers two and three just mentioned a second
17:48
ago They did beat the Dolphins last week, 2724, winning
17:52
outright as a 1 1/2 point home dog.
17:55
Now what do we see across the market for this one?
17:57
Well, this game opened Cowboys -3 1/2 and the public is back on
18:02
America's Team because the Cowboys are getting 77% of
18:06
spread bets at draftking. So Publix all over Dallas,
18:09
however, Dallas open -2 -, 3 1/2, I should say.
18:13
They're not up to 4 four and a half five.
18:15
They're down to three. So again, why is this line
18:18
falling toward Carolina when everyone and their mother is on
18:21
the Cowboys? Tells me smart money here on the
18:23
Panthers, only 23% of spread bets, but 62% of spread dollars
18:28
at DraftKings. So good split.
18:30
You look at home conference dogs getting five points or less,
18:34
they've been pretty good historically since 2018.
18:36
They're 177 and 151 against the spread, 54 percent, 4% ROI.
18:42
Bryce Young, think of him what you will.
18:44
Some people think he's a bust, but in this spot, he's been
18:47
really good as a home dog in his career.
18:50
He's nine and five against the spread, 64 percent, 23% ROI.
18:55
Also, Panthers 2 and O at home this year.
18:57
O and three on the road. So they played pretty good at
18:59
home. Now here's the thing, every book
19:03
pretty much under the sun is Panthers +3.
19:06
However, this is the importance of having multiple book shopping
19:09
for the best price. Again, this was a a situation
19:12
where the Cleveland Browns in in in England, we got the 4 1/2
19:17
because one book was an outlier 4 1/2.
19:19
The rest of the market was 3 1/2.
19:20
They lose by 4 because you pounced on that outlier book.
19:24
You cash that ticket, I got another outlier for you.
19:27
Eat, don't tell anybody. Guys ready.
19:29
ESPN bet as Carolina plus 3 1/2 at -125 So I played it again,
19:37
you can say, oh -125 that's really juicy.
19:39
You know, it's a big number. I don't want to play it.
19:41
But again, if they lose by three, which is the most common
19:45
key number, you want to cash with that hook.
19:46
So I'm always willing to pay a little more to get a hook
19:49
because they're so important. But again, every books at 3.
19:53
ESPN bet is plus 3 1/2 - 125, so I did play plus 3 1/2 - 125 with
19:59
Carolina. And oh by the way, Rhythm has
20:02
Carolina plus 2.8, so another good edge there on the Panthers.
20:07
So I got plus 3 1/2 - 125 with Carolina.
20:10
Now here is a game that I can't wait to sweat because it is
20:14
about as gross and sharp of a hazmat play as you will ever
20:17
see. Let's talk Sunday Night
20:19
Football. Detroit, Kansas City.
20:22
Now the Lions come in four and one.
20:23
Remember they lost that opener look pretty bad against the
20:26
Pack, but A1 four straight just beat the Bengals 37 to 24
20:30
covered as a 10 point Rd. favorite.
20:33
You know all the Chiefs 2 and three on the year started O and
20:35
212 straight. Then we had a great win there
20:38
with the Jags plus 3 1/2 Jags 1/31/28 beating the Chiefs as a
20:42
3 1/2 point Rd. favorite on Monday night.
20:46
And what do we see across the board here?
20:47
Well, this is so sharp when I put it in to bet it, I cut my
20:52
finger starting to bleed all over my keyboard.
20:54
That's a joke, but it's just super sharp in favor of the
20:57
Chiefs. I like the Chiefs here, guys.
20:59
Chiefs open as a one point home favorite.
21:02
Now, right off the bat, the public says the wrong team is
21:06
favored. Detroit's four and one Chiefs
21:08
are two and three. Take Detroit all day, right?
21:12
Well, that's what the public saying, 80% of spread bets are
21:15
taken. Detroit plus the points.
21:17
However we open KC -1 everyone's playing Detroit.
21:22
This line has not gotten down to a pick em.
21:24
It hasn't hopped the fence to make Detroit -1 -, 2.
21:27
The lines gone further toward the Chiefs.
21:30
So even though everyone's playing Detroit, the Chiefs have
21:32
gone from -1 up to -2 1/2. So if the public love Detroit
21:37
plus one, why are the odds makers now saying, oh public,
21:40
you know average Joe, you like the Detroit plus one, How about
21:43
you take Detroit plus 2 1/2? Why are the odds makers handing
21:46
out a better number to the public when they're already
21:49
hammering Detroit to begin with? Well, if it looks too good to be
21:52
true, looks fishy, doesn't make sense, Usually it is.
21:55
Tells me smart money has hit Kansas City causing that reverse
21:58
line move -1 up to -2 1/2 is an epic fade.
22:02
The trendy dog play. Detroit is a incredibly trendy
22:04
dog. Again.
22:05
Remember, we like the gross dogs.
22:07
We don't like the the popular dogs.
22:09
Because the public pretty much always wants to play a favorite
22:12
because they just, you know, and I get it.
22:14
But you know, if I'm going to put my hard earned money down, I
22:16
want to bet on the quote UN quote better team.
22:19
They rarely bet a dog, but when they do, that's a great
22:21
opportunity for us to go the other way and actually take a
22:23
contrarian favorite. Now the Chiefs are only getting
22:26
21% of spread bets And remember, this is a Sunday night game 820.
22:31
So even if you don't have the sharp line move toward KC.
22:34
This is just an epic, epic feed the trendy dog contrarian play
22:39
as the Chiefs are only getting, again, 21% of bets in a Sunday
22:42
Night Football game. Now I'm mitigating some risk
22:45
here. I played Chiefs on the money
22:46
line. I got him at -135 you know,
22:50
Detroit likes to go for two. Weird things can happen.
22:52
I'd hate to lay a 2 1/2, have Kansas City win by one or two.
22:56
So I played chiefs -135 Couple other angles though.
22:59
Non conference favorites. Straight up lack of familiarity
23:03
benefits. Typically the better team was
23:04
expected to win their 280 and one 2869% since 2020.
23:10
Patrick Mahomes, 43 and 1081% straight up as a home favorite
23:14
in the regular season. And then you'll get KC just the
23:18
ultimate buy low spot off a loss when they're favored versus
23:22
A-Team who has one four straight and covered last week.
23:26
And you also look at a favorite high total.
23:30
And we talked a second ago about who was it, the favorite low
23:35
total or sorry dog, low total with that Giants game.
23:38
Well, this is a favorite high total total.
23:40
This one is 52 1/2, even 53 and your short favorite with KC.
23:44
So more expected points scored typically makes it a little bit
23:48
easier for that favorite to cover.
23:50
So I can't wait, you know, you know, the, the, the music.
23:53
Who is it? Carrie Underwood?
23:54
I've been waiting all day for Sunday night.
23:57
Well, guess what? I can't wait to sweat the Chiefs
23:59
because it is a gross play that gives me heartburn, but I those
24:03
are the plays I love the most. So give me KC money line.
24:07
That is my play here for Sunday. So officially in pocket.
24:10
I got Giants plus 7 1/2. We have the Chiefs money line,
24:15
we have Miami plus 4 1/2 and we have Carolina plus 3 1/2.
24:19
Some early bets here for the NFL.
24:21
Week 6 late now to finish up the pod talk a little hockey here.
24:26
I've had some people reach out to me, say you got any futures
24:28
plays in hockey? Well, I got one of them.
24:30
It happens to be my Boston Bruins.
24:33
Now I'm going to play the Boston Bruins over 79 1/2 points.
24:38
Here's my angle. When I was looking at the Bruins
24:40
point total. You look at some of these power
24:43
ratings and Bruins are expected to be like the fifth worst team
24:45
in hockey. However, to me, this is a kind
24:49
of value play because when I'm looking at the Bruins points
24:53
total, I'm looking across the market and let me just give you
24:56
an example. This is an example of playing
24:59
books off of each other. So at at Caesar's, Bruins point
25:05
total is 80 1/2 / -, 120. At bet MGM it's 80 1/2 / - 115.
25:13
At ESPN bet it's over 80 1/2 - 120.
25:17
At DraftKings, it's over 80 1/2 - 115.
25:21
So pretty much every book is at 80 1/2 and they're all juiced
25:25
over. However, if you look at FanDuel,
25:28
you can get over 79 1/2 at -110. Now, I played this the other
25:34
night. I put it in the juicer lap.
25:36
It was actually over 79 1/2 at +100.
25:39
Now it's over 79 1/2 at -110. So it's moved $0.10 in favor of
25:43
the over. So that's a good sign that
25:45
people putting in their, you know, last second points total
25:47
bets have played the over. So again, every other books 80
25:51
1/2 juiced over you can get over 79 1/2 at now -110 and if you
25:55
again played it as soon as I bet it in juice real, you would have
25:58
gotten plus 100. So just from shopping for the
26:01
best line, finding the best price, finding an outlier to me,
26:04
there's value here to this Bruins over.
26:06
But now I'll give you an example of you know, me as a Bruins fan.
26:08
Just you know, maybe you don't maybe you don't know like what's
26:11
been going on with this team. But if you look at what happened
26:14
last year, Bruins missed the playoffs for the first time in,
26:17
like, forever. And the Bruins finished up last
26:21
season with 76 points and it was kind of a disaster.
26:25
They traded away Martian. They fired their coach, Jeremy
26:29
Swayman, their star goalie, held out training during training
26:32
camp. And then he had a terrible year
26:34
because he probably just wasn't prepared.
26:37
Reasons to be optimistic. They hire Marco Sturm as their
26:40
new head coach, maybe get a new head coach.
26:41
Bump. He's considered kind of like a
26:44
player's coach, Jeremy Swayman, full offseason, no playoffs,
26:48
rested and he's been at the training camp since day one.
26:50
So hopefully Swayman's ready to go.
26:52
You have Charlie McAvoy and Elias Hampis Lindholm, both got
26:56
hurt last year. Bruins had a ton of injuries.
26:59
They're both ready to go and they added some good bottom six
27:03
players. Nothing flashy, but when I was
27:05
watching the Bruins, you know, the start of the season press
27:08
conference, Cam Neely kept talking about how they're too
27:11
easy to play against last year and they needed some quote UN
27:15
quote piss and vinegar added to their lineup.
27:17
So they added guys like, who was it?
27:21
They added Tanner Jano, Victor Arvidsen, Michael Essimont, Sean
27:27
Coralli. And none of these guys are going
27:29
to, you know, blow your socks off, but they're kind of feisty
27:31
guys who play good defense. And again, I'm not picking the
27:34
Bruins to win the Cup. I'm not picking the Bruins to
27:37
win their conference or their division.
27:38
I would love that. But I think there's an angle
27:40
here to look at a bounce back season.
27:43
Again, 76 points last year and everything went wrong with
27:46
injuries, holdouts, trading guys away.
27:50
Now, can you be 4 points better this year with a fully healthy
27:54
roster and hopefully some optimism?
27:56
That's my bet. Again, 80 1/2 everywhere except
28:00
you'll get FanDuel over 79 1/2 points.
28:02
You can now get it -110 so that's my play.
28:05
Bruins over 79 1/2 points this year.
28:09
So that about does it for episode 369 of the All Systems
28:12
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by rhythm.
28:15
Of course, man, we hit on pretty much everything today.
28:17
Hockey, you know, baseball, football.
28:20
But as always, guys wrapping up the pod want to mention first,
28:23
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
28:25
out of your day at your busy lives to TuneIn, listen to the
28:29
breakdowns with me. Pull up a chair to the virtual
28:31
bar and sweat these sharp plays together.
28:33
It really does mean the world that you guys listen and and
28:35
we've created this community, which is awesome.
28:38
But if you want to help me grow the pod, could you do something
28:41
very easy? It's it's harmless, it's
28:43
painless. Just give it a five star review.
28:45
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, click the five stars.
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You want to leave a nice comment.
28:50
Hey, that's great as well. But if you also want to click
28:52
the follow button or recommend the pod to a friend or retweet
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the pod when I tweeted out all that support is really, really
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appreciated. Next, if you enjoy the style of
29:02
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting
29:05
focusing on line movement, bet split system matches, what
29:08
Rhythm and Juice Reel are saying.
29:10
If this style of betting has appealed to you, it's provided
29:12
you a blueprint to attack the market.
29:15
Before you love betting on sports.
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You didn't win a lot, you're just throwing darts.
29:19
Now you're learning to identify sharp action and bet against the
29:22
public. If that's the case and you want
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to let me know you appreciate the pod or you just want to
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learn more about betting in a data-driven way, or we have a
29:30
friend or colleague or family member or Co worker who wants to
29:33
get into sports betting or bets and loses a lot and you got to
29:36
introduce them to the data-driven approach.
29:38
Well, if any of that is the case, I would love for you guys
29:41
to go to Amazon.com and type in the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
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That's my new book all about how to bet the NFL from a year long
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perspective in a data-driven approach.
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If you want to pick up a copy of my first book, you can type in
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the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
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Pick one or both of them up for you or a friend, and when you
30:01
bring it to the sports book, I'll sign them for you and I'll
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buy you a beer or ginger ale. We'll sweat some sharp games
30:05
together next. Have you downloaded rhythm and
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juice reel yet My two favorite sports betting apps rhythm great
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for their AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
30:14
player props will we will have our rhythm live stream tomorrow
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night 6:00 PM Eastern Time on Twitter.
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So give me a follow at Josh under score insights will go
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live right at six and then juice reel great for so many different
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factors, but this pod is free. I'm going to pass the hat.
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If you want to support or tip your podcast host, you know what
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futures all available when you download Rhythm and download
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Juice Reel and give them a five star review in the App Store
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while you're at it. Next you have a live odds page.
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If you don't, you need one. You don't know what you're
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missing out on if you don't have one because the live odds page
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is really your Bible. When you're data-driven, better
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you got to be able to track the market, shop for the best price,
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identify steam again, find the best number, get live scoring,
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live in game wagering odds. It's really your Bible when it
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comes to making sharp bets and tracking the market.
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And again, if you want to give it a shot, I have this special
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link for you. Go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
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You'll get a 7 day free trial and you'll get 50% off your
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first month. Next, have you heard of Novig?
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Well, if you haven't Novig, it's not a sports book, it's a
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betting exchange. And you get better numbers
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because you don't have to pay. The big juice prices at the
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house forces you to play. You're betting against other
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betters instead of the house. So for example, tonight, Yankees
31:49
-170 -, 180 across the market, Novig has Yankees -161 so you're
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getting better numbers here by betting through Novig.
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So download Novig and put in promo code Josh 123 for a 2000%
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deposit match up to 25 bucks. So that about does it guys.
32:08
Episode 369 of the ASG Pod in the books.
32:10
As always, I'm leaving with two final thoughts, whether I see
32:13
you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode
32:16
Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
32:18
Sun down in Connecticut, the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge
32:21
Park, Casino, MGM Springfield and my neck of the Woods or the
32:24
Nash on the border of Mass in New Hampshire.
32:27
Out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
32:29
Where Billy Walters sends his number runners with lowest juice
32:32
possible is found at the South Point.
32:34
Or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
32:37
swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
32:39
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me
32:41
and show me a beautiful Yankees Blue Jays over 7 1/2.
32:47
Luckily it wasn't a three to, you know, three to two game in
32:49
the 8th and we needed some late runs.
32:51
We got that thing in the third inning, so it was great to see.
32:54
So flash me that Yankees over ticket.
32:56
First one's on me, next one's on you.
32:57
Will post about the book sweatshirt contrarian plays all
33:00
night long. So as always, guys coming off A1
33:03
and OO and 1A winning night, a losing night, a great night, a
33:06
terrible night. Grinding.
33:08
We just got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint.
33:10
Never get too high or arrogant or cocky when things are going
33:13
well, thinking we're always going to roll and have a winning
33:15
streak. No, there's ups and downs, but
33:18
also never get too low. If you're struggling or you're
33:20
grinding, you're not seeing the results you want, stick to the
33:22
model, stick to the blueprint discipline with your bankroll
33:25
management. Fire away when we find games
33:28
that fit our model against the public with the house, with the
33:31
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
33:34
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
33:37
So have a great Wednesday night, everybody.
33:40
Let's see if the Yankees hopefully can come through for
33:41
us and we right back at it tomorrow for a big Thursday
33:44
edition Episode 370 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
33:48
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
33:52
great Wednesday night.