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Food Stamps and Governor Drazan? · Crosstabs

0:11
long as you're having a late lunch jeez i mean getting after it
0:14
reagan the word i'm
0:17
gonna say something i don't want to say something insensitive
0:20
because i've been we
0:20
were i was looking at food stamp data earlier and i don't want
0:23
to start down that
0:24
SPEAKER_03: direction
0:26
SPEAKER_01: I was looking at that too.
0:28
SPEAKER_01: I know you texted that around to our group text.
0:33
SPEAKER_01: That John Harvick put out, that was pretty good by district.
0:36
SPEAKER_01: I wonder how hard it is for him to slam that thing together.
0:39
SPEAKER_01: That's got to be not super easy to do.
0:42
SPEAKER_01: It doesn't seem like it.
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SPEAKER_01: District, what it is.
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SPEAKER_01: My county would seem easier,
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SPEAKER_01: but to put it into house districts would seem kind of tough,
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SPEAKER_01: I think.
0:50
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I don't actually know how he does it, but we appreciate it.
0:54
SPEAKER_03: He does this
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SPEAKER_03: And it's by House District, like you said, so all 60 districts.
0:59
And he marks with the blue on the chart if it's Democrat-held
1:02
district,
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red if it's Republican.
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The highest utilizer,
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and I can't see because it goes past his 25% of the chart.
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SPEAKER_03: So how many households in your district are receiving food stamps?
1:15
SPEAKER_03: House District 22 is the leader by far,
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SPEAKER_03: way above 25,
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SPEAKER_03: probably headed towards 30% of households in House District 22.
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SPEAKER_03: And then House District 3, which is at Yunker?
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SPEAKER_03: Like Grants Pass area?
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SPEAKER_03: I think so, yeah.
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SPEAKER_03: And it goes all the way down.
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SPEAKER_03: And then the district that utilizes food stamps the least is District 38.
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SPEAKER_03: Which I think, is that Hua?
1:43
SPEAKER_03: Is that former representative Huawei?
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SPEAKER_01: Now 38's got to be like West Portland or something.
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SPEAKER_01: It's got to be the Rich Hills.
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SPEAKER_01: Oh, Daniel Wynn, yeah.
1:57
SPEAKER_01: That makes sense.
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SPEAKER_03: So that's your scale, basically.
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yeah they got and they're below five percent of households on
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snap so lake oswego
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is your basically essentially your most affluent in house
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district right by house
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district if you looked at this by region or by county it would
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look a little bit
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different but it'd be similar and then all the way at the other
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end is your grants
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SPEAKER_03: pass and your kind of rural woodburn a lot of southern area
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SPEAKER_03: Yes,
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SPEAKER_03: and you'll see most of the Republican districts on the right,
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most of them are on that right side of the scale where they're
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higher utilizers
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SPEAKER_03: kind of in the 15 to 20 range.
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And so obviously what this means is everybody needs to call
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Senator Wyden and
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SPEAKER_03: Senator Merkley and tell them to vote to actually pay for SNAP.
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SPEAKER_03: That's what this means, right?
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SPEAKER_01: In the government.
2:45
SPEAKER_01: I guess, yeah.
2:48
SPEAKER_01: I think they're trying to make this Trump's fault, but I don't know.
2:52
SPEAKER_03: They are, but...
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Having two Democrat senators is great for any of the
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state-level Republicans.
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SPEAKER_03: They just say,
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SPEAKER_03: yeah,
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I'll ask Wyden and Merkley to vote for the CR so we can get
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this going again.
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SPEAKER_01: It's true.
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SPEAKER_01: The note on House District 22,
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SPEAKER_01: though,
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SPEAKER_01: is it always kind of,
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I think it makes our point that we always talk about that
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because House District 22
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SPEAKER_01: has the lowest voter registration number
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SPEAKER_01: Because all the populations are equal,
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SPEAKER_01: but it has a super low voter registration,
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SPEAKER_01: which tells you that basically there's a lot of legals.
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SPEAKER_01: It's what it tells you.
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And I bet SNAP,
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there's a bunch of those people that are on SNAP benefits.
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And Owens,
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I noticed Owens is on there as well,
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which is,
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I think he's 60.
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So that's the far southeast portion of the district,
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which includes Ontario.
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SPEAKER_01: And in Ontario,
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because Idaho doesn't have a lot of the benefits that Oregon
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has as far as free
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SPEAKER_01: stuff goes.
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SPEAKER_01: Shocking.
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SPEAKER_01: In Ontario,
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SPEAKER_01: there are apartments,
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SPEAKER_01: I bet you,
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SPEAKER_01: if we dug into this,
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SPEAKER_01: that have 50 people getting SNAP benefits in one apartment.
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Because a bunch of illegals and a bunch of people that are poor
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that live in Idaho
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SPEAKER_01: share apartments.
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There's a whole black market over there about sharing
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apartments in Ontario to get
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SPEAKER_01: the free stuff from Oregon.
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Hence,
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while there's that's why there's a drive through abortion store
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in Ontario.
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SPEAKER_01: Like it's all about, you know, going after Idaho people.
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SPEAKER_01: But we have to pay for it in Oregon, which is horrible.
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SPEAKER_01: Interesting stuff, though.
4:36
SPEAKER_01: Follow John Horvick if you haven't, at Horvick, H-O-R-V-I-C-K.
4:40
SPEAKER_01: Free plug for John.
4:42
SPEAKER_01: He comes on a couple times a year and gives us kind of the updates.
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SPEAKER_01: But he puts this stuff out all the time, and it's pretty cool.
4:49
SPEAKER_01: It's just fun to see how that stuff plays out.
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SPEAKER_03: And I think,
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SPEAKER_03: I mean,
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SPEAKER_03: this is interesting data,
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SPEAKER_03: but I also don't think,
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SPEAKER_03: I mean,
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SPEAKER_03: so there are charts that have been going around,
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SPEAKER_03: at least in the legislature,
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SPEAKER_03: about what's going to happen with the budget.
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SPEAKER_03: I think those went public.
5:09
SPEAKER_03: But they're making,
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SPEAKER_03: because of the one big beautiful bill,
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SPEAKER_03: the HR1,
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SPEAKER_03: they are going to,
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SPEAKER_03: they're making big changes.
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SPEAKER_03: The state is going to pay more on SNAP.
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SPEAKER_03: There's basically two big buckets of federal money.
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SPEAKER_03: It's your healthcare and your food stamp and other food assistance.
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SPEAKER_03: And those two buckets are getting hit pretty hard.
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SPEAKER_03: It's a 15% reduction in the one.
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And based on,
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I'm doing some fuzzy math because the data,
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it doesn't all cross right over.
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But based on the chart that LFO gives you that shows you your
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biggest buckets of
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SPEAKER_03: federal money,
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SPEAKER_03: and then the chart that LFO gave us showing where the biggest cuts are,
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SPEAKER_03: my best estimate is 15 to 20% in both of these categories.
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SPEAKER_03: which is pretty big if they're your two biggest line items.
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SPEAKER_03: Those hit pretty hard.
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And then basically your choice is do you try to make up the
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ground where you lost
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SPEAKER_03: of the people who got rolled off?
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And a lot of times in Oregon we do try to do that or try to go
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beyond what the feds offer.
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A lot of other states don't because they don't want to spend
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the money to do it
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SPEAKER_03: because these are expensive.
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SPEAKER_03: I mean it's expensive stuff.
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SPEAKER_03: I was looking at Crook and Jefferson because those are our district.
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SPEAKER_03: We had some data from there.
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SPEAKER_03: It's like a million bucks a county to run SNAP.
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SPEAKER_03: And those are lower population counties.
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SPEAKER_03: You get to the big population counties,
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probably a couple million bucks to run it in Multnomah and
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Washington and Clackamas
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SPEAKER_03: and Deschutes and Lane.
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SPEAKER_03: So it gets expensive fast.
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Yeah,
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and I don't deny that some people need food stamps and the SNAP
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program to get through.
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SPEAKER_01: I think the problem,
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SPEAKER_01: and I think President Trump has been kind of on this,
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SPEAKER_01: is that there's a lot of people gaming the system.
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SPEAKER_01: And it's not even just illegal aliens, right?
7:00
SPEAKER_01: I don't want to pick on them.
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SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's not even that.
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SPEAKER_01: There's just a lot of people, and I see them.
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SPEAKER_01: I've seen that line.
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SPEAKER_01: It literally,
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SPEAKER_01: Reagan,
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SPEAKER_01: when they do some free food stuff,
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SPEAKER_01: they do a kitty corner of my building,
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SPEAKER_01: downtown Portland.
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SPEAKER_01: They do a kitty corner,
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SPEAKER_01: and I see the people lining up to get the free baskets of food and stuff.
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SPEAKER_01: They're not seniors that can barely walk.
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SPEAKER_01: They're not even illegal aliens.
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SPEAKER_01: These are 40-year-old people that should get a job.
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SPEAKER_01: And I just find,
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but they're smoking their ciggies and they're hanging out and
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they're just not
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spending whatever money they have on food because they know
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they got free stuff
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SPEAKER_01: coming.
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SPEAKER_01: And none of them look like they've missed a meal.
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SPEAKER_01: Let me tell you that.
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SPEAKER_01: It's not like they're skin and bones and,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: it's not the commercials you watched about Africa.
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SPEAKER_01: That's for damn sure.
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SPEAKER_01: So these people aren't exactly starving.
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SPEAKER_01: I just find it.
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SPEAKER_01: Kind of mildly annoying.
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SPEAKER_01: And I think that's what the president is trying to get at.
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SPEAKER_01: This is like there's just a lot of abuse in our system.
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SPEAKER_01: So many people taking advantage of free stuff.
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SPEAKER_01: And I just think it's we can't we can't afford to pay for it.
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SPEAKER_01: Like at some point, it's got to stop.
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And I also think like if you're just a person and you do the
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math and you say,
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SPEAKER_03: okay,
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SPEAKER_03: I get a job.
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SPEAKER_03: I taxes cost me this much.
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SPEAKER_03: This is what I have versus untaxed benefits.
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SPEAKER_03: Generally, I think they're untaxed.
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SPEAKER_03: I, I haven't.
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SPEAKER_01: No, it's free stuff.
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SPEAKER_01: They don't tend to know.
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SPEAKER_03: So if that's your math,
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SPEAKER_03: you're doing your math,
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SPEAKER_03: and you say with taxes on a job,
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SPEAKER_03: on a basic job that I could get versus benefits,
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SPEAKER_03: right?
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SPEAKER_03: People are just going to do the math.
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SPEAKER_03: And I've talked with folks who try to hire,
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SPEAKER_03: and they say that's one of the biggest problems is people come in,
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SPEAKER_03: and they do the math,
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SPEAKER_03: and they say,
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SPEAKER_03: I can make more on doing unemployment,
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SPEAKER_03: getting a job,
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SPEAKER_03: going back on unemployment.
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SPEAKER_03: People cycle on and off of them.
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And then you have food stamps on top of that and some people
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have access to disability.
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And so it just gets to be a lot to where some folks who are
9:15
able to work aren't
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SPEAKER_03: incentivized to get a job.
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SPEAKER_03: You just have to change the calculus.
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SPEAKER_03: You don't have to eliminate the programs.
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SPEAKER_03: You don't have to make it so that nobody can be helped.
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You just have to make it so that the people who truly are needy
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are getting the
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SPEAKER_03: help and the people who are – which is what they're doing.
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SPEAKER_03: They're reducing the AWABs, the ABLE –
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or able a able-bodied working adults something like that they
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call them and there's
9:39
an acronym for it but that's basically they're they're
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massively reducing how much
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they're doing on that front so they're still doing like a lot
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for the wick which is
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women children and infants right which is kind of the way you
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know generally it it
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SPEAKER_03: ought to be so um
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But big changes,
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and it'll be interesting to see how it plays into the budget
9:58
discussion.
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SPEAKER_03: But again,
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SPEAKER_03: I think that since we're a heavily Democrat state,
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SPEAKER_03: they like to hit Trump for it,
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but it kind of doesn't matter here because the only people that
10:06
can vote are the
10:08
SPEAKER_03: Democrats and then Cliff Benz.
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SPEAKER_03: And Cliff Benz voted to keep the government open.
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SPEAKER_03: All the other Democrats voted to keep it closed.
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SPEAKER_03: And that's kind of so they don't hit it very hard.
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SPEAKER_03: That's why Merkley is doing other stuff.
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SPEAKER_03: That's why Wyden's doing other.
10:21
They're not really highlighting this very much because they
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know they're the ones
10:24
SPEAKER_03: voting to stop the CR that has all the government funding in it,
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SPEAKER_03: including this stuff.
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SPEAKER_01: It was in Merkley's most boring speech ever.
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Did he did he talk about not voting for this because the CR so
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that they could keep
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SPEAKER_01: snap benefits?
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SPEAKER_01: I don't think you mentioned that.
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SPEAKER_03: I think his was on fascism and the rising fascism.
10:47
SPEAKER_03: Oh, yeah.
10:47
SPEAKER_03: And I think if I were to describe fascism,
10:50
SPEAKER_03: I would describe it as decades of control by,
10:54
SPEAKER_03: like,
10:54
SPEAKER_03: one single party,
10:56
SPEAKER_03: and they kind of do whatever they want,
10:59
SPEAKER_03: and the opposition just continually gets steamrolled,
11:01
SPEAKER_03: and sometimes they get removed from their seats for being an opponent.
11:07
SPEAKER_03: Oh, wait a minute.
11:07
SPEAKER_03: Okay.
11:09
SPEAKER_03: I just got confused.
11:10
SPEAKER_03: Sorry, I was describing Oregon government for the last 15 years.
11:13
SPEAKER_03: My mistake.
11:14
SPEAKER_03: There couldn't possibly be any fascist tendencies there whatsoever.
11:19
SPEAKER_03: No, I just think...
11:21
SPEAKER_03: He doesn't have there's nothing that's interesting for him.
11:24
SPEAKER_03: And then he goes and does this long ish filibuster.
11:27
SPEAKER_03: But at 22 hours, why wouldn't you do 24 at that point?
11:30
SPEAKER_01: You're not filibustering anything like you're just talking like you can.
11:34
SPEAKER_01: Any senator can go down to the floor.
11:36
SPEAKER_01: Right.
11:36
SPEAKER_01: Just start talking.
11:37
SPEAKER_01: Right.
11:37
SPEAKER_01: I mean, granted, if he's talking, then nobody else can talk.
11:41
SPEAKER_01: Right.
11:41
SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, I guess technically it's a filibuster, but.
11:45
SPEAKER_01: But it was funny listening.
11:47
I think it was Ruthless that talked about it was his – then
11:49
they showed a staffer
11:50
SPEAKER_01: that fell asleep.
11:51
SPEAKER_01: Because, I mean, the problem with Merkley, he's just boring.
11:59
SPEAKER_03: He's not Cory Booker.
12:01
SPEAKER_03: He's not exciting.
12:03
SPEAKER_03: He doesn't drive – he doesn't bring that kind of passionate –
12:08
SPEAKER_03: He's not exciting.
12:09
SPEAKER_03: There's nothing exciting.
12:10
SPEAKER_01: There's no viral video coming out of that.
12:12
SPEAKER_01: There's nothing that he said that was blasphemy.
12:14
It's the same boring shit that they've been saying about Trump
12:18
since the beginning.
12:19
SPEAKER_01: He's a fascist.
12:20
He's not all the things,
12:24
all while the people running for the Democratic Party.
12:27
you know they're the ones with the nazi tattoos the guy running
12:30
for governor main
12:32
has a nazi tattoo on his chest and i mean it's just uh it's
12:36
wild that they usually
12:37
those who scream at the loudest are the ones that are i find
12:41
that to be sometimes
12:42
the case right so i and i can't find the tweet right now but i
12:47
saw a polling that
12:48
SPEAKER_03: said when 40 when people were read his like
12:51
SPEAKER_03: He says those things are abhorrent.
12:56
SPEAKER_03: I don't agree with those anymore.
12:57
He doesn't really say I'm sorry,
12:59
but he also says I don't believe that stuff anymore.
13:01
So when people are redhead apology,
13:03
by the way,
13:04
46% more likely to vote for him.
13:07
So not only is he getting absolutely blasted and people think
13:11
that it's going to
13:12
SPEAKER_03: make him unpopular in that district,
13:13
SPEAKER_03: it's making him – he's doing better.
13:16
SPEAKER_03: And sorry, not district.
13:18
SPEAKER_03: This is U.S.
13:18
SPEAKER_03: Senate for Maine.
13:19
SPEAKER_03: So it's the entire state of Maine.
13:20
SPEAKER_03: And it's the incumbent governor that's running.
13:22
SPEAKER_03: But like this tells you where the Democratic Party is right now.
13:24
SPEAKER_03: They got the incumbent governor.
13:27
SPEAKER_03: who at least in the original polling was pretty popular.
13:29
SPEAKER_03: Her favorables look like plus 10, 15.
13:33
SPEAKER_03: But she is on the old – she's like 77 or something like that.
13:38
But she's been friends with Susan Collins and previously
13:41
refused to run against
13:43
SPEAKER_03: Collins when she was in other elected positions.
13:45
SPEAKER_03: Now she is willing to run against Collins.
13:47
SPEAKER_03: So –
13:48
My take being that if you have your incumbent governor to run
13:52
against a U.S.
13:53
SPEAKER_03: senator, that's probably worth doing.
13:55
SPEAKER_03: However, she's way behind in the primary right now.
13:58
SPEAKER_03: It's very early, but she's super behind.
14:00
SPEAKER_03: She's like 20, 30 points down to this Graham Plattner guy.
14:03
SPEAKER_03: So –
14:04
SPEAKER_03: I don't know what happens if charisma and social media videos is the new
14:08
SPEAKER_03: popularity,
14:08
SPEAKER_03: but also you got to remember that online is not the real primary.
14:12
SPEAKER_03: Real primary voters are old.
14:13
SPEAKER_03: Real primary voters are results oriented.
14:16
SPEAKER_03: A lot of them are.
14:17
SPEAKER_03: You can get some energy and have some sparks and stuff fly off here.
14:20
So it'll be interesting to see which one of those wins out in
14:23
that main primary.
14:25
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
14:27
Is the thought that she's running for Senate from the governor
14:31
– because normally,
14:33
SPEAKER_01: I guess he'd rather be a governor than a senator,
14:35
SPEAKER_01: I would think.
14:36
SPEAKER_01: Don't you?
14:36
SPEAKER_03: What's your – Yes, most senators – it used to go the other way.
14:40
SPEAKER_03: It used to be senators running for governor.
14:42
SPEAKER_03: That was –
14:44
SPEAKER_03: Often the pipeline, but there's been a reversal in that trend.
14:46
SPEAKER_03: A lot of senators are leaving.
14:47
SPEAKER_03: I mean, Tommy Tuberville is leaving to go run for Senate.
14:52
Blackburn in Tennessee is running for from Senate to go to
14:57
governor like most of the way.
14:58
SPEAKER_03: Most of the time, the pipeline is going the other direction.
15:01
My guess is Janet Mills did some polling and they really want
15:04
to win the main Senate race.
15:06
SPEAKER_03: I don't know what they can.
15:07
SPEAKER_03: I mean, they can't.
15:08
SPEAKER_03: I don't know what she can get.
15:09
SPEAKER_03: Maybe she isn't enjoying Governor.
15:11
SPEAKER_03: I don't know, but it's mostly going to get on.
15:15
SPEAKER_01: Maybe they want to get on.
15:17
SPEAKER_01: What do you call it?
15:18
SPEAKER_01: The Nancy Pelosi stock tour is actually get into D.C.
15:24
SPEAKER_01: wants to get the D.C.
15:25
SPEAKER_01: so she can make some money.
15:27
SPEAKER_01: I think my friend, so hey, Regan, you'll like this.
15:29
So I'm going to call her my friend because I don't really know
15:33
her all too well,
15:33
SPEAKER_01: but I did meet her and we sat together for a couple hours in D.C.
15:38
SPEAKER_01: So now she's my friend.
15:39
SPEAKER_01: Her name is Regan, Regan Paul.
15:42
SPEAKER_01: She's a state rep in Maine and we bonded over our love of offshore wind.
15:51
SPEAKER_01: Maine is just – she's battling.
15:53
SPEAKER_01: She represents the coastline, like the upper coastline up there.
15:57
SPEAKER_01: And she is just battling this, and nobody in Maine wants it.
16:01
And it's just being shoved by Democrats down their throat to
16:05
get it done before –
16:06
SPEAKER_01: because Trump's pretty much put a block on all of that sort of stuff.
16:09
But they're trying to get it – I think they're trying to make
16:11
sure to have –
16:12
SPEAKER_01: anyways,
16:13
SPEAKER_01: I thought you'd like her because her name's Reagan,
16:14
SPEAKER_01: too,
16:15
SPEAKER_01: and she was named after Ronald Reagan.
16:16
SPEAKER_01: You guys are literally like the same age, so I thought you would –
16:20
SPEAKER_03: Fantastic.
16:21
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
16:22
SPEAKER_01: She should run for governor.
16:24
SPEAKER_01: I don't think Maine's ready for a Republican governor,
16:27
SPEAKER_01: but Trump didn't win Maine,
16:29
SPEAKER_01: but I think he came close.
16:31
SPEAKER_01: I believe, but I'll have to look that up while we're
16:35
SPEAKER_03: I'll look up while you're talking.
16:36
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
16:37
SPEAKER_01: Well, I was done talking.
16:38
I was going to,
16:38
I was going to look it up and let you talk,
16:39
but all right.
16:40
SPEAKER_03: Well, I'm just kidding.
16:41
SPEAKER_03: Speaking of people who made it to the Senate.
16:44
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
16:45
SPEAKER_01: Oh, nice pivot.
16:46
SPEAKER_01: I thought you were going to say Christine running for governor.
16:48
SPEAKER_03: Well, listen,
16:51
SPEAKER_03: We got to get things in order here.
16:52
SPEAKER_03: So we had on Thursday,
16:53
SPEAKER_03: they had the PCP meeting and Drazen,
16:58
who I think generally most people I talked to was considered
17:02
the favorite for this.
17:04
SPEAKER_03: It did get appointed.
17:06
SPEAKER_03: Now, the weirdest part about this is that, like, was it Wednesday?
17:11
SPEAKER_03: I just started getting all kinds of texts.
17:14
SPEAKER_03: It sounds like you were getting all kinds of texts and calls and stuff.
17:17
SPEAKER_03: Their rumors on Wednesday started to really light up
17:22
Drazen's gonna run for governor right and it sounds like there
17:26
could be and I got
17:27
an email like let me I should look at when see when the email
17:31
came in because I
17:33
feel like it might have been Friday or Thursday so yesterday so
17:37
yesterday was
17:37
Thursday 3 30 okay so she's appointed they have the meeting at
17:42
one o'clock
17:44
SPEAKER_03: She's appointed the very next email that goes out.
17:47
SPEAKER_03: And Reagan,
17:49
SPEAKER_03: if you're reading this,
17:49
SPEAKER_03: you're one of the select few supporters I could trust with this.
17:53
SPEAKER_03: I need your opinion.
17:54
SPEAKER_03: Oregon's at a crossroads, blah, blah, blah.
17:56
SPEAKER_03: That's why I'm asking you.
17:57
SPEAKER_03: If I ran for governor, would you stand with me?
17:59
SPEAKER_03: And then you can click on the thing, and it's yes or no.
18:02
SPEAKER_03: And really, it's just a win read.
18:04
SPEAKER_03: And you click, yes, I'm with Christine.
18:07
SPEAKER_03: No, count me out.
18:08
SPEAKER_03: And then you put your name, email, cell phone.
18:12
SPEAKER_03: Within hours.
18:14
SPEAKER_03: an hour of being appointed, that email goes out, right?
18:16
SPEAKER_03: So obviously you draft that before,
18:18
but they were waiting to push send until they figured out what
18:21
happened with the
18:21
SPEAKER_03: thing.
18:22
SPEAKER_03: But she got asked about it,
18:25
in the meeting and here's the part and i did think that this
18:29
was going to be
18:30
somewhat like that's a question that should come up right are
18:33
you how long are you
18:34
planning to do the job because there's multiple schools of
18:36
thought you can appoint
18:37
somebody and hope that they run again and win you can appoint
18:39
somebody that's just
18:40
a placeholder you can appoint somebody that you hope is going
18:43
to lose there's all
18:43
kinds of strategy here and this was a democrat-led meeting
18:46
because you had a little
18:48
SPEAKER_03: bit of multinoma
18:49
SPEAKER_03: All Democrats.
18:50
SPEAKER_03: Hood River, all Democrats.
18:52
SPEAKER_03: Wasco seems like it's a little split.
18:55
SPEAKER_03: I haven't looked.
18:56
SPEAKER_03: They might be nonpartisan.
18:56
SPEAKER_03: Majority Republican.
18:57
Okay,
18:58
so majority Republican and Clackamas,
19:00
which is majority Dem,
19:01
but it has two R's on it.
19:04
SPEAKER_03: Three R's?
19:05
SPEAKER_03: Two R's?
19:05
SPEAKER_03: I think it's... Two R's, two D's, and an NAV.
19:08
SPEAKER_03: That's right.
19:09
SPEAKER_03: So...
19:10
SPEAKER_03: It's a generally Democrat-controlled or Democrat-leaning process.
19:15
But it sounds like Clackamas and a couple of others basically
19:18
came through for Drayson.
19:21
SPEAKER_03: Now, it could be, and here was my theory the other day.
19:24
SPEAKER_03: I was thinking about it.
19:26
If you wanted somebody who was going to be there long-term,
19:28
Helfrich has said he's going to run.
19:30
SPEAKER_03: And he was kind of in regardless, it sounds like.
19:33
SPEAKER_03: And he reiterated that as a thing.
19:35
SPEAKER_03: He's going to run even though he didn't get appointed.
19:37
SPEAKER_03: But...
19:39
SPEAKER_03: If you appoint Helfrich,
19:40
SPEAKER_03: then the Republicans do get to pick a replacement for his seat,
19:43
SPEAKER_03: and that's a seat Democrats want to pick up in the next election,
19:47
SPEAKER_03: will put effort into picking up,
19:48
SPEAKER_03: will spend money on,
19:50
SPEAKER_03: I think.
19:50
So they probably didn't want to appoint Helfrich because they
19:54
don't want another
19:55
SPEAKER_03: Republican in his seat.
19:56
SPEAKER_03: They don't want somebody who's really qualified to get appointed.
19:58
SPEAKER_03: They would want that person to have to go through the idea of,
20:01
SPEAKER_03: like,
20:01
SPEAKER_03: I've got to run,
20:01
SPEAKER_03: it's going to be a hard race,
20:02
SPEAKER_03: all that stuff.
20:04
SPEAKER_03: So they were probably going Dresden anyway.
20:05
SPEAKER_03: But then I read this quote and I was a little bit surprised.
20:09
SPEAKER_03: So they asked,
20:10
SPEAKER_03: because you can't ask individual,
20:12
SPEAKER_03: but they asked to the panel,
20:13
SPEAKER_03: are you planning to stick around?
20:14
SPEAKER_03: How are you planning to do the job?
20:15
SPEAKER_03: Do you have time to do the job?
20:17
SPEAKER_03: And Drazen kind of referring to knowing that it was talking about her,
20:21
SPEAKER_03: that she says,
20:22
SPEAKER_03: quote,
20:23
that is just a reflection of the fact that I'm always
20:25
determined to do more than
20:27
everyone else sometimes is willing to do to serve the greater
20:30
good for the state of
20:31
SPEAKER_03: Oregon.
20:31
And I was like,
20:33
okay,
20:34
I'm interested in what her colleagues think about that.
20:36
SPEAKER_03: If they got read that quote, respond to this.
20:40
SPEAKER_03: That's an interesting quote.
20:42
SPEAKER_03: Listen.
20:42
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
20:44
SPEAKER_03: There are some people who do nothing.
20:46
SPEAKER_03: So maybe technically true.
20:48
SPEAKER_03: But I think a lot of people are putting effort in.
20:51
SPEAKER_03: It's just that not everybody's running for governor.
20:53
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
20:55
SPEAKER_01: I definitely agree.
20:56
SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of people that do nothing.
20:58
SPEAKER_01: That's hard to – that would be hard to argue that quote, Reagan.
21:02
SPEAKER_01: Correct.
21:02
SPEAKER_01: I think it's hard to argue the quote that she always does more.
21:05
SPEAKER_01: That's –
21:07
SPEAKER_01: That's a little bit of a slam at your colleagues.
21:09
SPEAKER_03: Which is probably why she threw the word sometimes in there.
21:12
SPEAKER_01: She realized where she was going and she was like, hold it back.
21:18
SPEAKER_01: Clackamas owned the vote.
21:19
The crazy part about that whole vote is all of the other
21:22
commissioners voted for Jeff Helfrich.
21:26
SPEAKER_01: That's interesting.
21:26
SPEAKER_01: Except for Clackamas County.
21:28
SPEAKER_01: So he won.
21:29
SPEAKER_01: He had 11 commissioners to vote for him over Drazen.
21:33
SPEAKER_01: And Clackamas swung it all to her.
21:37
And I think it's because of her relationship with Schrader that
21:39
she got the Democrats.
21:41
SPEAKER_01: And that was highlighted.
21:42
SPEAKER_01: Schrader highlighted that publicly, which I think is fascinating.
21:46
SPEAKER_01: I mean, good for her.
21:47
SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's what you're supposed to do, right?
21:48
SPEAKER_01: I mean, she knew what vote she had to win, and she won it.
21:50
SPEAKER_01: So I don't discount that.
21:53
I do discount the fact that if you're going to go run for
21:56
governor and you can't
21:58
SPEAKER_01: get any of the other commissioners to vote for you,
22:02
SPEAKER_01: That's a little odd.
22:04
SPEAKER_01: Or did she just not try and Jeff did?
22:06
SPEAKER_01: I don't know the backstory.
22:07
SPEAKER_01: So,
22:08
SPEAKER_01: um,
22:09
I would think she probably figured she had the five Clackamas
22:13
County commissioners
22:14
SPEAKER_01: and they controlled the vote because of the population.
22:16
SPEAKER_01: So she probably just didn't bother to be honest.
22:18
SPEAKER_01: I'm sure she didn't call the Multnomah County commissioners.
22:21
SPEAKER_01: I probably wouldn't call them either.
22:22
SPEAKER_01: Um,
22:23
SPEAKER_01: unless she lost one of the Clackamas County ones,
22:25
SPEAKER_01: then she would have to like,
22:26
SPEAKER_01: Oh,
22:28
SPEAKER_01: I need to go call a couple of other ones.
22:29
SPEAKER_01: But, uh,
22:31
SPEAKER_01: But regardless of all that,
22:33
SPEAKER_01: so take all of the rumors,
22:35
SPEAKER_01: right,
22:37
SPEAKER_01: that we hear she's announcing on Monday –
22:40
SPEAKER_01: She's getting sworn in.
22:42
SPEAKER_01: I got a note that she's getting sworn in tomorrow, Saturday, on Saturday.
22:46
SPEAKER_01: She's getting sworn in by Tobias Reed at the Clackamas County Courthouse.
22:52
SPEAKER_01: She's hurrying up and swearing.
22:54
SPEAKER_01: It's like getting married before you're running off to the Army.
22:57
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
23:01
a shotgun swearing it yeah like it's uh it's just this uh let's
23:05
just hurry up and
23:06
get it done kind of thing i mean i i don't i don't know i
23:09
thought that was kind of
23:10
not about the pomp and circuses because what the other thing
23:13
she could do is she
23:14
could wait until november ledge days totally you know if you
23:19
want the pomp and
23:20
circumstance but yes she obviously does want to be sworn in and
23:22
then announced oh
23:23
SPEAKER_01: to me that would
23:25
The fact that she's getting sworn on Saturday at the Clackamas
23:28
County Courthouse by
23:29
SPEAKER_01: Tobias Reid,
23:30
SPEAKER_01: because there's only,
23:31
SPEAKER_01: what is it?
23:31
SPEAKER_01: Is it three people that can swear?
23:33
SPEAKER_01: The governor, secretary of state, and like Supreme Court, right?
23:36
Yeah,
23:37
I think you can poll almost any judge,
23:39
but I would have to double check that.
23:41
SPEAKER_01: I feel like it's a judge from the Supreme Court.
23:45
SPEAKER_03: Maybe it is.
23:46
SPEAKER_03: I have not checked that in a long time.
23:48
SPEAKER_03: I haven't had to arrange a swearing in.
23:49
SPEAKER_01: I think they also get former Secretary of State too, I believe.
23:52
SPEAKER_01: Ooh.
23:53
SPEAKER_01: I think they can because no, no, it has to be the sitting.
23:56
SPEAKER_01: Because Vicky was sworn in by... Klarna.
24:00
SPEAKER_01: Klarna.
24:01
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
24:02
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, cool.
24:03
SPEAKER_01: But she was Secretary of State.
24:04
SPEAKER_01: Yes, she was.
24:06
SPEAKER_01: So to me, all of the rumors...
24:12
SPEAKER_01: The fact that you're doing a shotgun swearing in on Saturday.
24:15
SPEAKER_01: So that's a totally episode, by the way.
24:17
SPEAKER_01: Now you are the state senator by Monday.
24:21
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
24:22
SPEAKER_01: Makes all of the rumors true.
24:24
SPEAKER_01: Like there's just.
24:27
SPEAKER_03: OK, and then, Brian, what's the hurry for her to announce on Monday?
24:31
SPEAKER_03: Why would that be necessary?
24:34
SPEAKER_01: Well,
24:34
SPEAKER_01: there's a Reagan dinner,
24:36
SPEAKER_01: speaking of Reagans today,
24:38
SPEAKER_01: on November 1st,
24:39
SPEAKER_01: where Chris Dudley and Chell Sonnen are both speaking,
24:42
SPEAKER_01: but not Christine Drazen.
24:44
SPEAKER_01: Now, we've already talked about Sonnen.
24:48
SPEAKER_01: And we hear that there's an announcement coming.
24:50
SPEAKER_03: Yes.
24:51
SPEAKER_03: And the question really is so.
24:54
And I think I get I every time I got to hand it to Dan Mason
24:58
because every time he
24:59
SPEAKER_03: figures out an interesting angle to make this dinner,
25:02
SPEAKER_03: not just a random,
25:03
SPEAKER_03: you know,
25:03
SPEAKER_03: fancy.
25:04
SPEAKER_03: And he's got Mark Wayne Mullen, who is a U.S.
25:06
SPEAKER_03: senator.
25:06
SPEAKER_03: That's super cool because there's only 53 of those that are Republicans.
25:10
SPEAKER_03: Right.
25:10
SPEAKER_03: You're not going to invite a Democrat to come.
25:13
SPEAKER_03: Actually, they should get Fetterman.
25:14
SPEAKER_03: But anyway, back to this.
25:16
SPEAKER_03: He's got Mark Wayne Mullen,
25:17
SPEAKER_03: who I think is cool,
25:18
SPEAKER_03: who I think is a good speaker,
25:19
SPEAKER_03: and normally that would just be it.
25:21
SPEAKER_03: Like, event done.
25:22
SPEAKER_03: We've got our speaker, right?
25:23
He's like,
25:24
no,
25:24
I'm just going to invite two people who are rumored to run for
25:26
governor.
25:28
SPEAKER_03: And...
25:30
SPEAKER_03: Basically, are both of them going to announce at the Reagan dinner?
25:33
SPEAKER_03: Because frankly, that would be hilarious.
25:35
But even if only one of them does,
25:37
whether it's Dudley or Sonnen,
25:39
that is interesting.
25:40
And I think that the fact that he's set the speaker lineup the
25:44
way he has is adding
25:47
SPEAKER_03: to the interest level,
25:49
SPEAKER_03: which I think will get more people there.
25:51
SPEAKER_03: So again, super smart of him to set up the event that way.
25:54
SPEAKER_03: And he's done a really good job finding good angles for it.
25:57
SPEAKER_03: And so this will be an interesting one.
25:58
Now more people are interested to hear what Chael and Dudley
26:03
have to say versus
26:04
SPEAKER_01: Mark Wayne Mullen.
26:05
SPEAKER_01: I mean, he's going to be boring talk about the walkout, right?
26:08
Or not the walkout,
26:09
but the shutdown,
26:10
and everybody's going to be like,
26:11
meh,
26:12
kind of old news.
26:13
SPEAKER_01: Dudley, what's going on?
26:14
SPEAKER_01: Are you running?
26:14
SPEAKER_03: Is Chael running?
26:16
I did ask my dad if he gave Chuck Schumer the walkout play look
26:20
because I keep
26:21
SPEAKER_03: hearing their talking points and their strategy.
26:23
SPEAKER_03: I'm like, man, this thing's familiar from somewhere.
26:25
SPEAKER_03: We talked about it before.
26:26
SPEAKER_03: But, yes, yeah, no, I think that's exactly right.
26:29
And I think,
26:30
like,
26:32
I don't know if they're in order of how they're going to speak.
26:34
If it's Mullen,
26:34
Dudley,
26:35
and then Sonnen,
26:36
that's the way they're labeled on the invite.
26:37
SPEAKER_03: I have no idea.
26:38
But super fascinating stuff now to kind of see that this race
26:42
now developing.
26:44
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
26:44
SPEAKER_01: I'll be there at the Reagan dinner.
26:46
SPEAKER_01: It's going to be fun.
26:49
SPEAKER_01: Be the guest of a lobbyist.
26:50
SPEAKER_01: So, Vicky and I are going.
26:51
SPEAKER_01: I think we're sitting with Bob and Bobby,
26:55
SPEAKER_01: Representative Bobby Levy,
26:56
SPEAKER_01: and Bob Levy is one of my good friends.
26:58
SPEAKER_01: So, it'll be kind of fun.
27:00
SPEAKER_01: Now, before I was kind of like, meh.
27:03
SPEAKER_01: You know, but now I'm kind of like, oh, this could be interesting.
27:06
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, to be honest, I mean, Chell Sonnen's a wild card.
27:11
SPEAKER_01: I mean...
27:13
He's not afraid,
27:16
you know,
27:17
to say what is on his mind,
27:19
regardless of filters.
27:21
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I always think I don't have a filter until you hear him talk.
27:25
SPEAKER_01: And then you realize, no, I actually have a pretty good filter.
27:27
SPEAKER_01: I remind my filter is actually not too bad.
27:32
SPEAKER_03: And he has a couple of things.
27:33
SPEAKER_03: You don't know what kind of campaign he's going to run.
27:36
SPEAKER_03: You don't know what issues he's going to talk about.
27:38
SPEAKER_03: You also don't know how much money he can raise.
27:39
SPEAKER_03: He can, there's, I think, and I think it's just a very wide capacity.
27:44
SPEAKER_03: There's certain people we know.
27:45
We know what kind of,
27:46
Drazen's going to run a disciplined,
27:48
like tight race.
27:49
SPEAKER_03: She generally does.
27:50
SPEAKER_03: She generally stays on message.
27:52
SPEAKER_03: She's going to raise some money.
27:54
SPEAKER_03: We all know that she has the capacity for that, right?
27:57
SPEAKER_03: Dudley, we have seen him run one time.
27:59
I think also the interesting thing about this,
28:02
and the challenge is going to be,
28:05
SPEAKER_03: And we were talking about this before we started,
28:06
SPEAKER_03: but Kotex Favorables,
28:09
she used to be the 50th most popular governor in the morning
28:15
consult quarterly
28:16
SPEAKER_03: governor survey.
28:18
SPEAKER_03: She's not anymore.
28:19
SPEAKER_03: She's in the like 48th to 45th range now.
28:23
Yeah,
28:24
I mean,
28:25
truly getting,
28:26
I mean,
28:26
and this is basically the story of Oregon.
28:28
SPEAKER_03: It's like, oh, dang, we're ranked 50th in a thing.
28:31
SPEAKER_03: That's pretty bad.
28:32
SPEAKER_03: We at least like Mississippi below us, right?
28:35
SPEAKER_03: That's kind of the general thing.
28:36
And so we put in a bunch of effort to come up with an
28:40
incredibly complicated
28:42
SPEAKER_03: marquee bill and spend a bunch of money to make sure we're 48th to 45th.
28:46
SPEAKER_03: That's like the Oregon way now.
28:49
SPEAKER_03: We don't pioneer anything anymore.
28:51
SPEAKER_03: Our goal is not 50th.
28:53
SPEAKER_03: OK,
28:53
SPEAKER_03: so the thing,
28:55
SPEAKER_03: though,
28:55
that's a challenge right now is Trump's deployment or attempted
28:59
deployment of
29:00
National Guard is putting a spotlight on Oregon in a way that
29:05
it is needed.
29:06
And that combat like point is needed and he needs to make sure
29:09
that he's defending
29:10
SPEAKER_03: the federal government.
29:13
America was built on the idea that anything is possible with
29:17
hard work and a dream.
29:18
SPEAKER_00: But it doesn't seem to feel like that today in Oregon.
29:21
SPEAKER_00: Democrats' out-of-touch far-left agenda has only made things worse.
29:26
SPEAKER_00: Paying union workers to strike against us,
29:29
SPEAKER_00: stealing private property rights away,
29:31
SPEAKER_00: driving companies out of Oregon,
29:34
SPEAKER_00: and sending your taxes higher so you can't afford to live here.
29:37
From gas tax,
29:38
open-air drug markets,
29:40
and homelessness,
29:41
Democrats have failed.
29:43
SPEAKER_00: Democrats passed an additional gas tax on you.
29:46
Every day,
29:47
Orgonians will now pay over $4 billion more to failed Democrat
29:51
agendas.
29:52
SPEAKER_00: It's time to push back, stand up, and say enough.
29:57
Senate Republican Leader Bruce Starr is leading the charge to
30:00
refer this horrible
30:01
SPEAKER_00: gas tax to you,
30:02
SPEAKER_00: the voters.
30:03
SPEAKER_00: Republicans think you should have a vote.
30:06
SPEAKER_00: Write this website down, notaxoregon.com.
30:10
SPEAKER_00: Get involved and stay ready.
30:13
Governor Kotech and Democrats will do their best to make sure
30:16
your voice does not count.
30:18
SPEAKER_00: Together,
30:19
we can win and restore much-needed balance in Oregon against
30:22
unchecked left-wing
30:24
SPEAKER_00: ideology of Portland Democrats the rest of us don't share.
30:30
SPEAKER_03: So but back to what I was saying.
30:32
So that spotlight with Trump that Trump has been putting on
30:36
Portland has helped
30:37
SPEAKER_03: Kotech as much as it's needed,
30:39
SPEAKER_03: as much as the ice facility needs the protection.
30:42
SPEAKER_03: All that stuff is true.
30:43
It's also helping Kotech because it's giving her a foil that
30:46
isn't her own agencies
30:47
SPEAKER_03: and her own problems that she owns as governor.
30:50
SPEAKER_03: Right.
30:50
SPEAKER_03: Her housing numbers or whatever else.
30:52
SPEAKER_03: So with that, she's gotten her numbers out of the basement.
30:55
SPEAKER_03: Right.
30:56
SPEAKER_03: She is now a plus eight favorable, right?
30:58
And before there was a polling that Horvick had talked about
31:01
where she wasn't even
31:02
SPEAKER_03: popular in Portland among Democrats,
31:05
which is like kind of a problem if you're the Democrat governor
31:07
of Portland,
31:08
SPEAKER_03: I mean Oregon.
31:09
SPEAKER_03: So –
31:11
SPEAKER_03: Trump, fighting Trump has helped her.
31:12
SPEAKER_03: She's a plus eight now.
31:13
SPEAKER_03: She's in a better spot than after she won her last election.
31:17
SPEAKER_03: So the question anybody's running really has to answer is,
31:21
can you get those numbers back down or can you get your numbers
31:25
way above hers,
31:26
SPEAKER_03: right?
31:27
SPEAKER_03: And I don't know that I could tell you what that path is right now.
31:31
SPEAKER_03: I think that that's the biggest challenge all of these candidates have.
31:35
SPEAKER_03: That's basically, I think, the biggest question.
31:38
But Drazen running is going to put a spotlight on the fact that
31:41
she just did this.
31:42
SPEAKER_03: Dudley, 15 years ago, he can say whatever.
31:45
SPEAKER_03: He can say,
31:45
SPEAKER_03: oh,
31:46
SPEAKER_03: it's totally different now because X,
31:47
SPEAKER_03: Y,
31:47
SPEAKER_03: Z.
31:48
SPEAKER_03: And he can explain it away,
31:49
SPEAKER_03: positive or negative.
31:50
SPEAKER_03: It doesn't really matter.
31:51
SPEAKER_03: The other problem is going to be
31:53
SPEAKER_03: This is what happens.
31:54
SPEAKER_03: We have a red wave incoming, which was what we expected in 22.
31:59
SPEAKER_03: It didn't really arrive.
32:00
SPEAKER_03: But 2010 and 2022 were the expected red wave years.
32:05
SPEAKER_03: RGA was all in.
32:06
SPEAKER_03: They spent about as much money as you could.
32:09
RJ also got in some for Buehler because they thought Buehler
32:13
was a candidate that
32:14
SPEAKER_03: could supersede some of the problems in Oregon.
32:17
SPEAKER_03: Okay, turns out he could not.
32:19
SPEAKER_03: RJ has not fallen for this race again.
32:21
SPEAKER_03: Not in 2020, not in 2026.
32:24
They'll have way too much defense to play,
32:26
way too much offense in more winnable states.
32:29
SPEAKER_03: They're not signing up for it.
32:30
SPEAKER_03: Again, I guarantee you.
32:32
If anything,
32:33
they got money sitting around in October and the polling is
32:35
close.
32:36
SPEAKER_03: Okay, they might pull the trigger.
32:37
SPEAKER_03: But there's no early money coming.
32:39
SPEAKER_03: They're not coming in with any infrastructure.
32:41
The only thing you can hope is NRCC actually wants to beat
32:44
Bynum in the fifth.
32:45
But I'm not even convinced that that will be in play unless we
32:48
have the right
32:49
SPEAKER_03: candidate and that candidate is raising gobs of money.
32:51
SPEAKER_03: So...
32:52
SPEAKER_03: That is the landscape.
32:54
SPEAKER_03: It's a very different landscape than the 2022 race.
32:57
And whichever candidate comes out faces all of those challenges
33:01
and has to explain
33:03
SPEAKER_03: or has to prove they can overcome them.
33:05
SPEAKER_01: Well, and you have so think about the states.
33:08
SPEAKER_01: And so now Trump Trump put a few more states into play.
33:14
SPEAKER_01: that weren't in play even four years ago.
33:16
So the states that are electing governors that barely went for
33:21
Trump or barely
33:22
SPEAKER_01: didn't go for Trump,
33:23
SPEAKER_01: right?
33:23
SPEAKER_01: Nevada,
33:24
SPEAKER_01: Arizona,
33:26
SPEAKER_01: Minnesota,
33:27
SPEAKER_01: Michigan,
33:28
SPEAKER_01: Pennsylvania,
33:29
SPEAKER_01: North Carolina,
33:30
like these are battleground states that have governor races
33:35
this year that are
33:36
SPEAKER_01: gonna have a lot of congressional races this year.
33:39
So that weren't,
33:42
you know,
33:43
maybe on the map,
33:44
I'm probably missing a couple there.
33:45
SPEAKER_01: I think Ohio is pretty safe.
33:46
SPEAKER_01: I think some of these other states are probably fine.
33:49
SPEAKER_01: Georgia is probably safe.
33:51
SPEAKER_01: But they're going to if they don't look safe,
33:54
SPEAKER_01: you know,
33:54
SPEAKER_01: they're going to dump some money there before they come here.
33:56
So now you're falling down the list where maybe I think she was
34:00
like fifth or sixth
34:01
SPEAKER_01: ranked like a funding team.
34:03
SPEAKER_01: In 22, I think she was somewhere in there.
34:06
SPEAKER_01: I don't know the exact numbers, but it was somewhere around there.
34:08
SPEAKER_01: Maus, you're lucky if you crack top 10.
34:13
Because he's probably going to fight for money against Colorado
34:16
and New Mexico for
34:19
SPEAKER_01: dollars,
34:19
SPEAKER_01: really.
34:20
And that's not the conversation you want to be in because those
34:22
are not swing states.
34:23
There's not much competitive going on there except for a couple
34:25
of congressional.
34:26
SPEAKER_01: California, they might even throw some money in, right?
34:27
SPEAKER_01: Because you've got a lot of congressionals in California,
34:29
SPEAKER_01: depending on what happens with Measure 50 in California.
34:33
SPEAKER_03: It's proposition.
34:34
SPEAKER_03: It's a proposition in California.
34:37
SPEAKER_03: They don't use measures.
34:39
SPEAKER_03: Proposition 50.
34:41
SPEAKER_01: Always have to be right.
34:42
SPEAKER_03: I mean,
34:43
SPEAKER_03: yeah,
34:43
SPEAKER_03: so you'll pull up the 270 to win,
34:46
SPEAKER_03: which is my favorite map because you can click it and change the colors.
34:49
SPEAKER_03: You've got Nevada,
34:50
SPEAKER_03: Arizona,
34:51
SPEAKER_03: Georgia,
34:51
SPEAKER_03: Michigan,
34:51
SPEAKER_03: Wisconsin,
34:52
SPEAKER_03: all with governor's races,
34:54
SPEAKER_03: all swing states.
34:55
SPEAKER_03: Those are immediately the most interesting races.
34:58
SPEAKER_03: They have to make sure they hold on to Iowa.
35:00
SPEAKER_03: They still want to flip Kansas because that is still,
35:02
SPEAKER_03: if I remember right,
35:03
SPEAKER_03: that's a Democrat governor there in Kansas.
35:07
SPEAKER_03: I think he'll also want to play in Pennsylvania.
35:09
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
35:10
And so there's just so many and maybe Minnesota,
35:13
there's just so many more states.
35:15
SPEAKER_03: If you're the RGA,
35:16
SPEAKER_03: if you're Trump,
35:17
if you're the RNC that you would way rather play in because it
35:20
lays groundwork for
35:21
SPEAKER_03: stuff that you've got to win if you want to be competitive in 2020.
35:26
28 and Oregon is still I just we're still not there we see some
35:30
positive voter
35:31
trends we talked about those before I think Trey Rosser who is
35:35
I think or has been
35:37
Drazen's consultant posting numbers about the potential
35:39
competitiveness maybe
35:41
trying to lay the groundwork for the argument of the of the
35:43
case here it's still a
35:45
challenge and no one would deny that I don't think any of the
35:47
candidates are
35:48
SPEAKER_03: thinking this is a cakewalk I feel like
35:51
So I got to assume there's a pressure for her to announce
35:54
either it's a donor thing.
35:55
SPEAKER_01: It's maybe a Dudley thing or I don't know.
35:58
There's there's some sort of pressure to do it before that
36:01
November 1st thing,
36:02
SPEAKER_01: because I kind of feel like I would wait to see what New Jersey,
36:05
SPEAKER_01: Virginia looks like.
36:07
Or the outcomes of,
36:08
you know,
36:08
like you got,
36:09
what,
36:10
15 days until that election?
36:11
It looks like Republicans are trending up in both states right
36:16
now with those races.
36:18
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
36:18
I think Virginia's a little bit more on the attorney general
36:21
guy that basically
36:22
SPEAKER_01: tweeted that he wants to kill his opponents.
36:26
And that governor's basically not even denouncing it,
36:29
which is just hilarious to me.
36:31
SPEAKER_01: But I think that's...
36:32
SPEAKER_01: I don't know if that's the reason why that's turning up.
36:34
SPEAKER_01: I think that there's but I think I would wait,
36:37
SPEAKER_01: you know,
36:37
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
36:38
because I would say I wouldn't make my announcement based on
36:40
somebody else's
36:41
SPEAKER_01: announcement.
36:42
And unless unless she did head to head polling that showed she
36:46
doesn't beat them.
36:48
SPEAKER_01: Right.
36:49
SPEAKER_01: And that means you got to get out in front of them.
36:51
SPEAKER_01: So in a primary.
36:52
So I think that would be that would be the only thing that
36:55
would make me force my
36:57
SPEAKER_01: decision to go early is that I need to get out in front of my opponent.
37:01
SPEAKER_01: I don't think I don't I mean,
37:03
I think your name ID has got to be highest among all of those
37:06
people that we even
37:07
SPEAKER_01: talked about for governor and.
37:10
SPEAKER_01: Even with Daniel Bethel declaring,
37:12
I still – I mean her numbers aren't even – I bet she's not even
37:16
a 10% name ID
37:17
SPEAKER_01: awareness amongst Republicans.
37:19
SPEAKER_01: So Drazen's got to be 80%, I bet.
37:25
SPEAKER_01: They heard of her from the last election.
37:26
SPEAKER_01: So I think she could wait, but –
37:31
SPEAKER_01: I'm not in her camp, so I don't know why they're going early.
37:35
SPEAKER_01: I guess maybe we'll find out someday.
37:37
SPEAKER_01: Maybe we'll ask her.
37:37
SPEAKER_01: She did say she'd come on the podcast when I was in D.C.
37:40
SPEAKER_01: with her.
37:41
SPEAKER_01: She did say she'd come on, so I'll put that out there.
37:43
SPEAKER_01: Maybe we'll ask her that, why she went early, and maybe she won't answer.
37:46
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
37:48
SPEAKER_01: We'll find out if she actually comes on the podcast.
37:50
SPEAKER_01: And then when Tina Kotick announces, we'll have her come on the podcast.
37:55
SPEAKER_01: We are putting it out there now.
37:56
SPEAKER_01: We're willing to do a pre-debate.
38:00
between Kotech and Drazen,
38:02
let's do it now,
38:03
let's do it early,
38:04
let's get it on.
38:05
SPEAKER_01: Give me a one-year, let's do it.
38:07
SPEAKER_01: Reagan, we could do a one-year preview debate.
38:12
We could also get anyone who wants to primary Kotech and anyone
38:16
else who wants to
38:17
SPEAKER_03: run in the Republican primary.
38:18
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think we – well, I've had Daniel Bethel on.
38:23
SPEAKER_01: Some of the other ones that are running,
38:24
SPEAKER_01: I don't think I – well,
38:26
SPEAKER_01: the ones that have declared and filed,
38:27
SPEAKER_01: I don't really care to interview them because I think they'd be boring.
38:30
SPEAKER_03: Douglas T. Muck, no?
38:31
SPEAKER_01: I think his oppo file is a little Graham Platner-y.
38:36
SPEAKER_01: I've heard.
38:37
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I can't – you know, Muck's from my neck of the woods too.
38:40
SPEAKER_01: I think he went to high school with Vicky, which is kind of funny.
38:43
SPEAKER_01: He ran against McLean for the state senate.
38:45
SPEAKER_01: He did, yeah.
38:46
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he ran in that primary, which was kind of funny.
38:50
SPEAKER_01: Nice guy, but just as a little delusional.
38:56
SPEAKER_03: Everybody's got to be a little delusional to get into politics.
38:58
SPEAKER_01: He should pivot to Merkley.
39:00
SPEAKER_01: Maybe that's a better shot.
39:02
SPEAKER_03: It's not the worst idea.
39:03
SPEAKER_03: Again, we would prefer somebody very normal.
39:07
SPEAKER_03: So if he has a rap sheet, maybe think about not politics.
39:11
SPEAKER_01: He drains septic systems.
39:15
SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know, kind of a fun job.
39:18
SPEAKER_03: I mean, you could turn that into dealing with a lot of crap in Salem.
39:21
SPEAKER_03: I mean, there's a campaign there, Brian.
39:23
SPEAKER_03: There is a campaign there.
39:25
SPEAKER_03: The other thing,
39:26
SPEAKER_03: too,
39:26
is that this opens up Drazen's District 51 early and clears the
39:31
way for the return
39:32
SPEAKER_03: of James Hebe.
39:36
SPEAKER_01: Boy, oh, boy.
39:38
SPEAKER_03: I think there will be other people interested.
39:40
SPEAKER_03: I think there's probably still... I think he may apologize, by the way.
39:45
I think he's likely to apologize and show some regret and try
39:48
to get back in.
39:49
I think there will be some PCPs who still like him that put him
39:53
on the top list of
39:55
SPEAKER_03: three,
39:56
SPEAKER_03: I suspect.
39:57
SPEAKER_03: I could be wrong, but I suspect.
39:59
SPEAKER_03: But it'll be interesting to see who else is up there with him.
40:02
SPEAKER_03: That's going to be the interesting thing.
40:04
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I...
40:08
SPEAKER_01: You know, James Hebe is not a bad guy.
40:10
I think that he just – when some people punch above their belt
40:17
or their weight
40:18
SPEAKER_01: class,
40:18
SPEAKER_01: as they say,
40:19
SPEAKER_01: I think if James was smart,
40:21
SPEAKER_01: he would have used his –
40:24
SPEAKER_01: you know,
40:26
publicity or his platform when he lost to Christine to maybe
40:30
like get on a city
40:31
SPEAKER_01: council,
40:33
SPEAKER_01: do something else,
40:33
like kind of stay in the public realm of space of stuff and
40:38
keep sharpening some
40:39
SPEAKER_01: skills and,
40:40
SPEAKER_01: you know,
40:41
SPEAKER_01: for an opportunity like this.
40:43
But I think just to come back and just say – because he never –
40:46
he's never – was he elected?
40:48
SPEAKER_01: He's only ever been appointed, right?
40:50
SPEAKER_01: No, he won.
40:51
SPEAKER_01: I guess he did win.
40:51
SPEAKER_01: He won his first – he was appointed, and I think he won his first one.
40:54
SPEAKER_01: Appointed in 21, yeah.
40:56
SPEAKER_01: But, I mean, that was before all the bad things kind of happened, but –
41:00
SPEAKER_01: I'm hearing that Matt Bunch is going to run for that.
41:05
SPEAKER_01: And he's president of the Clackamas County Fair Board.
41:07
SPEAKER_01: He was going to run before Christine put her name in the hat.
41:12
SPEAKER_01: He was going to run.
41:13
SPEAKER_01: He was out there.
41:16
SPEAKER_01: Matt's a good guy.
41:16
SPEAKER_01: I know him.
41:18
SPEAKER_01: I would say I'm friendly, friends with him.
41:21
SPEAKER_01: Good guy.
41:21
SPEAKER_01: I think he would make a good state representative.
41:25
SPEAKER_01: I think when he called and said he wanted to run before,
41:30
SPEAKER_01: I remember telling him,
41:31
SPEAKER_01: like,
41:31
SPEAKER_01: yeah,
41:32
SPEAKER_01: dude,
41:32
SPEAKER_01: it's great.
41:32
SPEAKER_01: We talked about hunting and fishing,
41:35
and he was kind of born in Jefferson County and that sort of
41:38
stuff and moved over
41:39
SPEAKER_01: to Clackamas a long time ago.
41:40
SPEAKER_01: So I think he'd be good.
41:43
SPEAKER_01: The house is...
41:45
SPEAKER_01: That district.
41:46
SPEAKER_01: Oh, hey, what do you know?
41:47
SPEAKER_01: He filed yesterday.
41:50
SPEAKER_01: I didn't know that.
41:50
SPEAKER_01: That's so funny.
41:52
SPEAKER_01: Matt bunched it.
41:53
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
41:54
SPEAKER_01: OK.
41:55
SPEAKER_01: But I think that seat for that seat,
41:58
SPEAKER_01: which is the highest or the lowest snap benefits for Republicans.
42:05
SPEAKER_01: I saw that on that map.
42:06
SPEAKER_01: Fifty one.
42:07
SPEAKER_01: I think I think that seat needs some stability.
42:11
SPEAKER_01: And I think Matt could bring some stability to that seat.
42:13
SPEAKER_01: I don't think we need this kind of like in and out,
42:17
SPEAKER_01: in and out,
42:18
SPEAKER_01: you know,
42:18
SPEAKER_01: with Christine over the course of time.
42:21
SPEAKER_01: I think –
42:22
You know,
42:22
I think she wants to run for,
42:23
she's been wanting to run for governor.
42:25
SPEAKER_01: She loves to be the anti-Kotek.
42:29
SPEAKER_01: I think that'd be good for that seat to have a good,
42:31
solid state representative that's just focused on that and not
42:35
being governor.
42:36
SPEAKER_01: Nothing against Christine running for governor.
42:38
SPEAKER_01: I think it's, you know, it's fine.
42:40
We need somebody who's,
42:41
she's taken the baton of being everything against Kotek.
42:47
SPEAKER_01: She's taken that baton to the n-teeth degree of,
42:50
SPEAKER_01: Over the course of the years.
42:51
SPEAKER_01: And there is a true not likeness there between those two.
42:56
SPEAKER_01: That is.
42:57
SPEAKER_03: Here's the other thing, Brian, that I forgot about.
43:00
OPB,
43:00
I think it was one of the articles mentioned that senators can
43:04
raise money.
43:05
SPEAKER_03: During this session.
43:06
SPEAKER_03: Now they won't get any checks from lobby.
43:08
SPEAKER_03: Lobby is prohibited by capital club rules from giving during session.
43:11
SPEAKER_03: So a lot of the big corporations won't,
43:14
SPEAKER_03: but like small corporations,
43:16
SPEAKER_03: corporations that don't have lobbyists,
43:18
SPEAKER_03: corporations that don't want to give through their lobbyist individuals.
43:20
SPEAKER_03: She can still raise money from them.
43:22
So it could be that she also is running – she'll just test the
43:26
waters because she
43:26
SPEAKER_03: didn't get in this early last time.
43:28
SPEAKER_03: She waited.
43:28
SPEAKER_03: So she gets in early now, sees if she can raise the money.
43:32
SPEAKER_03: If she can't,
43:33
she can always pull the ripcord and file on the last day for
43:36
Senate and try to keep
43:37
SPEAKER_03: her seat.
43:38
SPEAKER_03: And then the question is, what does Helfrich do?
43:41
SPEAKER_03: Because in the meantime,
43:42
he'll stay filed and run for Senate while she's doing her test
43:46
run for governor.
43:47
So that sets up a thing where she's in a situation she can pull
43:50
the ripcord at the
43:50
SPEAKER_03: end if she doesn't feel like it's developing the way she wants it to.
43:54
But there's a lot of games you can play with your with your
43:57
star and your pack and stuff.
43:59
SPEAKER_01: Right.
43:59
SPEAKER_01: So she doesn't actually have to technically file for governor.
44:03
SPEAKER_01: No, true.
44:04
SPEAKER_01: You would have to file a week before the deadline, though.
44:07
SPEAKER_01: Oh, that's right.
44:08
SPEAKER_01: Rules for her Senate seat.
44:10
SPEAKER_01: That's right.
44:11
SPEAKER_01: Yes, you're right.
44:11
The Senate can raise money during during their session where
44:15
House rules are
44:16
SPEAKER_01: against the House members from raising money,
44:18
SPEAKER_01: which I still believe to be unconstitutional.
44:20
SPEAKER_01: But I don't I think people do really do it.
44:24
SPEAKER_01: I think there's just more reporting requirements from the state.
44:27
SPEAKER_01: I don't think.
44:28
I don't think you would get in trouble if you were a house
44:31
member and you raised money.
44:32
SPEAKER_01: Secretary of State just has the 48-hour reporting requirements.
44:36
SPEAKER_01: What doesn't allow them to do it is just their own internal rules.
44:40
SPEAKER_01: House rules, yeah.
44:42
SPEAKER_03: Which you can't get in trouble for breaking them.
44:44
SPEAKER_03: I don't know what the penalty would be.
44:46
SPEAKER_03: Would they attempt to expel a member?
44:47
SPEAKER_03: Because basically I think if you're a house member,
44:51
SPEAKER_03: let's just say you're brand new,
44:52
SPEAKER_03: and you just decide you want to challenge us,
44:54
SPEAKER_03: you take a contribution the day session starts or something like that.
44:59
SPEAKER_03: unless they throw you out, basically that means you can do it.
45:04
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
45:04
SPEAKER_03: Right.
45:04
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
45:05
SPEAKER_03: Maybe they,
45:05
SPEAKER_03: maybe they kill you off from all the committees and then that,
45:08
SPEAKER_03: that convinces people not to,
45:09
SPEAKER_03: but I think ultimately it's,
45:12
SPEAKER_01: it should be curious,
45:13
SPEAKER_01: you know,
45:14
SPEAKER_01: and the pivot into this,
45:18
SPEAKER_01: this gas tax stuff,
45:19
SPEAKER_01: cause that's going to muddy those waters as well.
45:22
SPEAKER_01: Right.
45:24
SPEAKER_01: You know, governor Kotex still has not signed the gas tax.
45:27
SPEAKER_01: Right.
45:28
SPEAKER_01: still has not allowed us to start gathering signatures,
45:33
SPEAKER_01: you know,
45:33
SPEAKER_01: the people that want to re-refer it to the voters for an up-down vote.
45:39
SPEAKER_01: So the biggest question I had with all that is,
45:42
SPEAKER_01: like,
45:43
SPEAKER_01: with the Trump stuff and everything else and now,
45:48
SPEAKER_01: you know,
45:48
SPEAKER_01: Christine Drazen running for governor and all those sort of things,
45:52
I'm wondering if all of this noise is sucking some of the
45:56
oxygen out of the room
45:57
SPEAKER_01: for the enthusiasm on the gas tax.
46:00
SPEAKER_01: And I'm a little concerned about that, that maybe their plan is working.
46:03
So to basically take us into almost basically near middle of
46:09
November and and then sign it.
46:13
And it gives us an effective 35,
46:15
40 days to get signatures before Christmas.
46:18
SPEAKER_01: And
46:19
SPEAKER_01: That is scaring me on that part.
46:22
SPEAKER_01: The team seems to be doing a pretty good job.
46:25
SPEAKER_01: We're going to have Senator Bruce Starr on here, too.
46:28
SPEAKER_01: I've been chatting with him this week,
46:31
and we just said we want to wait until we're a little bit
46:34
closer to her signing so
46:36
we can kind of get the details of what people need to do and
46:39
all the things.
46:39
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
46:44
That could really – if the gas tax thing goes through and we're
46:47
successful and it
46:48
SPEAKER_01: gets on there and it's Tina Kotex gas tax –
46:53
SPEAKER_01: That and somehow that gets on the you know,
46:56
they get it on the ballot and somehow gets punted to even a
47:00
primary or a general.
47:03
SPEAKER_01: That could make a difference,
47:04
SPEAKER_01: you know,
47:05
in the way it could be a game changer for people like Christine
47:09
running for
47:09
SPEAKER_01: governor.
47:10
SPEAKER_01: I think it's it's a it's a something that cuts through the clutter.
47:14
SPEAKER_01: Right.
47:14
SPEAKER_01: I mean, people hate it.
47:15
SPEAKER_01: I mean, some of the.
47:17
SPEAKER_01: The polling on gas taxes are, you know, 85-15, basically.
47:21
SPEAKER_01: And what, Measure 30, they got referred?
47:24
SPEAKER_01: That was like a 90-10, you know, whopping.
47:29
SPEAKER_01: And that was only saving a billion.
47:31
SPEAKER_01: This is 4.3 billion or whatever.
47:33
SPEAKER_01: So that could be a real game-changing, momentum-changing scenario.
47:39
SPEAKER_01: But I'm just really concerned about our timeframe.
47:41
SPEAKER_01: So...
47:43
SPEAKER_01: Go to notaxor.com and sign up.
47:48
SPEAKER_01: They got a lot of people that signed up, said they'd sign.
47:50
I think there are 20,000,
47:51
30,000 people or so that are ready and fired up.
47:54
SPEAKER_01: But I just don't want to lose that enthusiasm.
47:56
SPEAKER_01: So it's kind of why I put that plug in there.
47:59
uh you know to to do that but i i just but i think it's an
48:03
issue that could be
48:04
could could could play into the governor's race and i think
48:08
there's a few of those
48:09
issues that are flow there's a lot of measures are we measures
48:12
are we propositions
48:13
SPEAKER_01: now i don't know i'm just kidding
48:14
SPEAKER_03: There are a lot of measures out there.
48:17
SPEAKER_03: Petitions.
48:18
I guess there was one that was filed that is going to repeal
48:22
the homelessness,
48:24
SPEAKER_03: the ban or the camping.
48:26
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
48:27
SPEAKER_03: Kotech had a bill that allowed for camping,
48:29
SPEAKER_03: basically,
48:29
SPEAKER_03: and there's a bill to repeal that or initiative petition to repeal that.
48:33
SPEAKER_03: The other.
48:33
SPEAKER_03: It's not camping.
48:36
SPEAKER_03: It's open air drug dens.
48:38
SPEAKER_03: Right.
48:38
SPEAKER_03: And it is – I mean it's legalized homelessness basically.
48:43
SPEAKER_03: They give everybody – it's right to rest essentially.
48:46
SPEAKER_03: You've got a right to be wherever you want to be in public land,
48:50
which is of course not how that works and never how it was
48:53
supposed to work.
48:54
Just because it's public land does not mean you get access to
48:57
it at all times for any reason.
48:59
SPEAKER_03: And then there's one –
49:01
SPEAKER_03: And now I can't even find the link to it anymore.
49:04
That deals with changing Oregon to open primaries with a top
49:08
two general election,
49:10
SPEAKER_03: which I think is interesting.
49:12
SPEAKER_03: And the thing that makes it different here,
49:14
SPEAKER_03: it's I mean,
49:15
SPEAKER_03: it's still going to be a grassroots effort to some extent,
49:17
SPEAKER_03: I would guess.
49:18
SPEAKER_03: But and we should have him on to talk about it.
49:20
SPEAKER_03: Former Governor Ted Kuligowski said.
49:23
SPEAKER_03: Basically,
49:23
SPEAKER_03: he told people he was like,
49:24
SPEAKER_03: look,
49:25
SPEAKER_03: don't sign this if you think things are going well.
49:26
SPEAKER_03: But I don't think things are going well anymore.
49:28
SPEAKER_03: I think the state of Oregon is not good.
49:31
And he's talking about different times when both Republicans
49:34
and Democrats have been in control.
49:35
And he seems to be not super thrilled with how things are going
49:38
at the moment.
49:39
SPEAKER_03: So he's co-leading that effort along with Sherry Helt and Andrew Caza,
49:45
SPEAKER_03: I think is his name,
49:45
SPEAKER_03: who's independent party.
49:46
SPEAKER_03: So they theoretically have all three parties represented.
49:50
SPEAKER_03: It'll be interesting to see if other big names jump in.
49:54
SPEAKER_03: Well,
49:55
SPEAKER_03: when Dallas Hurd was in charge of the Republicans,
49:56
SPEAKER_03: he tried to do what's already allowed by law,
49:58
which is allow the Republicans to open their primary so
50:01
non-affiliators could
50:02
SPEAKER_03: choose to vote in the Republican primary.
50:05
That got narrowly defeated at the ORP meeting that he attempted
50:07
to do that at.
50:09
I don't know where the new chair stands on that or this new
50:11
ballot initiative,
50:13
SPEAKER_03: but they want to end the taxpayer-funded primaries.
50:15
SPEAKER_03: So the primary is open and available,
50:18
SPEAKER_03: and all the candidates are in the same primary,
50:21
SPEAKER_03: and everybody gets to vote in that same primary.
50:23
So you obviously still benefit by bringing a party apparatus
50:26
with you,
50:26
but now –
50:28
SPEAKER_03: everybody else could have a say in that primary too.
50:31
SPEAKER_03: Um, so it'll be interesting to see.
50:33
SPEAKER_03: And then they're going with top two instead of three or four or five,
50:36
SPEAKER_03: I'm assuming to prevent spoilers.
50:38
SPEAKER_03: I don't know.
50:39
Um,
50:39
but that'll come that there'll be situations where like,
50:42
which is be interesting.
50:43
SPEAKER_03: Like,
50:44
SPEAKER_03: you know,
50:44
SPEAKER_03: Valderrama seat in Portland,
50:45
SPEAKER_03: she'll get a Democrat challenger,
50:47
SPEAKER_03: not a Republican to make it into the final.
50:49
SPEAKER_03: Like the Republicans are such a small minority in that district.
50:52
SPEAKER_03: There,
50:52
SPEAKER_03: there won't be,
50:53
she'll more than likely you'll Democrats in deep blue seats
50:56
will have Democrat
50:57
SPEAKER_03: challengers in their,
50:58
SPEAKER_03: in their general elections in the top two,
51:01
SPEAKER_03: unless they can convince no one else to file,
51:03
SPEAKER_03: which I,
51:04
SPEAKER_03: I find to be unlikely because the filing threshold is still really low.
51:06
SPEAKER_03: 50 bucks and fill out a form.
51:09
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
51:11
SPEAKER_03: So that'll be interesting to see what happens.
51:13
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
51:14
SPEAKER_01: Well, first off, let me just say this because –
51:18
SPEAKER_01: Kulingowski was governor for eight years and did nothing on this topic.
51:23
SPEAKER_01: He had the bully pulpit.
51:24
SPEAKER_01: He was the governor,
51:25
SPEAKER_01: control of his party,
51:27
SPEAKER_01: the top dog in the state,
51:29
SPEAKER_01: and did nothing to make the state worse.
51:31
SPEAKER_01: All these guys get out of office and they all think,
51:33
SPEAKER_01: oh,
51:33
SPEAKER_01: now that I've left,
51:35
SPEAKER_01: they're too partisan.
51:36
SPEAKER_01: Now that I've left, they suck.
51:38
SPEAKER_01: Now that I've left, things are broken.
51:41
SPEAKER_01: Now that I've left, things aren't the way they should be.
51:43
SPEAKER_01: Every one of these guys that are formers
51:47
SPEAKER_01: I hate formers doing shit like this,
51:48
SPEAKER_01: to be honest with you,
51:49
SPEAKER_01: because I think you had the opportunity.
51:52
You could have taken the opportunity to do something and change
51:56
the nature of where
51:57
SPEAKER_01: we're at today.
51:58
And I kind of just get a little pissy and just want to drop the
52:03
middle finger in
52:04
SPEAKER_01: front of them and just be like,
52:05
SPEAKER_01: you know what?
52:06
SPEAKER_01: You had your chance to be in the limelight,
52:08
SPEAKER_01: and you could have done something,
52:10
SPEAKER_01: and you did nothing.
52:12
SPEAKER_01: And so it's kind of like, meh.
52:15
SPEAKER_01: I don't really care that it's him.
52:17
SPEAKER_01: The Kaza guy is nothing but a left-wing hacked Democrat.
52:20
SPEAKER_01: So screw the independent party as far as I'm concerned.
52:24
SPEAKER_01: Guaranteed.
52:27
SPEAKER_01: They're nothing but just shield Democrats.
52:30
SPEAKER_01: Sherry Hilt always wants there to be
52:34
SPEAKER_01: Open stuff because Sherry Health is barely right of center, right?
52:38
SPEAKER_01: Just philosophically speaking and politically speaking, which is fine.
52:43
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
52:43
I get where she's coming from with it because it makes things a
52:46
little bit easier
52:46
SPEAKER_01: for her to be when she's a pro-choice,
52:51
SPEAKER_01: pro-vaccine Republican.
52:52
SPEAKER_01: You've got to have open primaries.
52:54
SPEAKER_01: Otherwise, there's no way you're winning one.
52:56
SPEAKER_01: So I think that's really why she's going after that and sees it that way,
53:01
SPEAKER_01: which is okay to have that opinion.
53:02
SPEAKER_01: I don't have a problem with that opinion.
53:04
SPEAKER_01: But I'm actually not for open primaries.
53:06
SPEAKER_01: I think that if you want to vote in my primary, become a Republican.
53:11
SPEAKER_01: If I want to vote in the Democrat primary,
53:13
SPEAKER_01: then I guess I'll become a Democrat in that district.
53:16
And if you're a non-affiliated voter or an independent,
53:19
then you know what?
53:21
SPEAKER_01: You made that choice.
53:23
Like you don't get to just vote in anywhere you want because,
53:27
oh,
53:27
look at me.
53:28
SPEAKER_01: I'm great because I'm non-affiliated.
53:30
SPEAKER_01: I can vote wherever I want.
53:31
SPEAKER_01: Well, too bad.
53:32
SPEAKER_01: You know,
53:34
SPEAKER_01: when you register as a party in the Republican Party,
53:37
SPEAKER_01: you say that I believe in some basic principles of the Republicans.
53:42
SPEAKER_01: And same with the Democrats.
53:44
SPEAKER_01: There's some basic principles that they believe in.
53:46
SPEAKER_01: And you're choosing to do that.
53:48
SPEAKER_01: And I think when you're a non-affiliate independent party,
53:52
what they need to do is make more independents and then they
53:54
become their own major
53:55
SPEAKER_01: party.
53:55
but they don't want to do that they just want all of the
53:58
benefits of the major
53:59
parties but yet be their own minor party and i say no i say
54:03
you're all you guys are
54:04
good for in the independent party is helping democrats win
54:07
tough races and being
54:08
spoilers in other races that's all you're good for because you
54:11
don't do anything
54:12
you don't stand for i don't even know what you stand for you
54:16
stand for not democrat
54:17
and not republican and i don't think that's right the two-party
54:20
systems work just
54:21
SPEAKER_01: fine
54:22
SPEAKER_01: So I don't even know where you're at on this one, Reagan, but I'm not.
54:24
SPEAKER_01: Clearly, I'm not on the open primary side.
54:27
I would say I'm starting in the middle because I do agree with
54:29
you,
54:30
Brian.
54:30
I think if you want to meddle in the Republican primary,
54:33
just become a Republican.
54:35
SPEAKER_03: But that's too far for some people.
54:37
SPEAKER_03: And same on Democrat.
54:38
SPEAKER_03: I would never register Democrat.
54:41
SPEAKER_03: not even to get involved in a primary.
54:42
SPEAKER_03: I would like the opportunity,
54:44
SPEAKER_03: I think,
54:44
SPEAKER_03: to,
54:45
SPEAKER_03: if there was no other primaries I cared about in my area,
54:48
SPEAKER_03: just Lynn County,
54:49
SPEAKER_03: so all the primaries are Republican primaries.
54:51
But if there was a key Democrat race and I could stay
54:56
registered R and pull a DEM
54:57
SPEAKER_03: ballot,
54:58
SPEAKER_03: I wouldn't hate that,
54:59
but I think that's also the point of the parties is we're going
55:02
to choose our
55:03
SPEAKER_03: candidates.
55:03
SPEAKER_03: If people have a problem with running them
55:06
SPEAKER_03: in a way that is on taxpayer funds.
55:09
SPEAKER_03: Here's the problem.
55:10
The reason we do that is because if the ORP runs the meeting or
55:13
the DPO runs the
55:14
SPEAKER_03: meeting and runs the primary statewide,
55:17
SPEAKER_03: runs the primary in these districts,
55:20
SPEAKER_03: it's going to be scary.
55:21
SPEAKER_03: There's going to be so many allegations of fraud,
55:25
SPEAKER_03: of election rigging,
55:26
SPEAKER_03: and the state doesn't have the records or anything.
55:28
SPEAKER_03: And so they'll just be like, I don't know.
55:29
SPEAKER_03: I'll see you guys in court, I guess.
55:32
it's going to be really ugly and it's going to go back to the
55:35
way it was when we
55:36
SPEAKER_03: chose people in behind back doors,
55:38
backroom meetings and in cigar filled rooms and coronations and
55:42
all that stuff.
55:43
The whole reason we have taxpayer funded party primaries was
55:45
for transparency.
55:47
SPEAKER_03: So I, I get it.
55:49
SPEAKER_03: On the other hand, I think your point is a good one, Brian.
55:53
And so I'd say I'm still undecided on this one because yes,
55:56
I got you on my side.
55:57
SPEAKER_01: You're coming.
55:58
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
55:59
SPEAKER_03: You might pull me across.
56:00
SPEAKER_03: You might pull me across.
56:01
But I think there is a pretty good point that a lot of these
56:05
primaries tend to be
56:07
SPEAKER_03: like one issue primaries.
56:09
SPEAKER_03: And in order to win your primary, it's a lot harder to be courageous.
56:13
SPEAKER_03: It's a lot easier to go in lockstep with the groups on both sides.
56:17
And so that means that those interest groups do have a lot of
56:21
control over what
56:22
SPEAKER_03: happens in the process.
56:24
SPEAKER_03: So I think that's interesting.
56:26
SPEAKER_03: And one thing I wanted to highlight, too,
56:28
SPEAKER_03: Just to cover this really quick.
56:31
So the governor did an executive order yesterday on the
56:36
environment and preserving public lands.
56:38
SPEAKER_03: And I don't know what it means yet.
56:39
SPEAKER_03: I haven't analyzed the whole thing.
56:40
SPEAKER_03: I haven't gone through and tried to break it down.
56:42
SPEAKER_03: There's something about preserving 10% of lands over 10 years.
56:47
SPEAKER_03: Again, I hope that's an achievable goal that they've set for themselves.
56:51
SPEAKER_03: He's pretty good at it.
56:54
doing lofty goals opb and then i have to go because my next
56:59
meeting is is ready to
57:00
go i i but my but myself right up um mary kyle mccurdy gave a
57:07
good quote to opb
57:10
SPEAKER_03: about governor kotech and to have that hit
57:14
SPEAKER_03: on whatever it was,
57:15
SPEAKER_03: Wednesday or Tuesday,
57:17
and then have the executive order and the environment show up
57:19
on Thursday,
57:20
SPEAKER_03: reminds me how gross it is when Democrats have to campaign.
57:24
SPEAKER_03: Because, like, it's pretty hard.
57:27
SPEAKER_03: I mean,
57:27
SPEAKER_03: you can send me the receipts if you want to,
57:29
SPEAKER_03: but,
57:29
SPEAKER_03: like,
57:29
SPEAKER_03: those things seem connected to me,
57:32
SPEAKER_03: which is disappointing.
57:33
SPEAKER_03: Because what we don't need is more environmental regulations.
57:36
SPEAKER_01: We've got enough.
57:37
Here's my...
57:39
And we can kind of end it here a little bit on this one,
57:41
because I...
57:44
SPEAKER_01: I am not for open primaries,
57:45
SPEAKER_01: but what I am for,
57:46
SPEAKER_01: if you want to lower the thresholds for other parties to get into the
57:51
taxpayer-funded primaries and the independent party wants to
57:56
actually let their
57:58
SPEAKER_01: members vote,
58:00
SPEAKER_01: on somebody running for their office,
58:02
SPEAKER_01: that would be,
58:03
SPEAKER_01: that would be great because right now they don't have an,
58:07
SPEAKER_01: they don't have a process that is democratic.
58:10
It is basically their party bosses choosing who they want to be
58:17
to get the
58:18
SPEAKER_01: independent nod or the working families or the whatever,
58:21
SPEAKER_01: the no names.
58:21
SPEAKER_01: I mean, you libertarians, all of that.
58:24
SPEAKER_01: If, if we want to lower the threshold, um,
58:26
and allow them to have access to the county clerks and stuff to
58:30
run their elections for them?
58:32
SPEAKER_01: All for that.
58:33
SPEAKER_01: Let's go that route.
58:35
SPEAKER_01: Because I would rather see more people on the general ballot that has an
58:38
SPEAKER_01: independent tag than basically the Democrat that says,
58:41
SPEAKER_01: oh,
58:41
SPEAKER_01: look at me.
58:41
SPEAKER_01: I got the working families, the independent, and the Democrat Party.
58:45
SPEAKER_01: I'm like, gee, I wonder how you got that one.
58:48
SPEAKER_01: So I think I would rather see that versus opening the primaries.
58:53
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
58:54
SPEAKER_01: My two cents on it.
58:56
SPEAKER_01: I mean, we can talk more about it as it comes, but good discussion.
58:59
SPEAKER_01: We'll see.
59:00
SPEAKER_01: Lots to come in the governor's race.
59:01
SPEAKER_01: It's going to be a great, great Christmas season, Reagan.
59:05
SPEAKER_01: I can just smell it.
59:08
SPEAKER_03: I'm so excited.
59:09
SPEAKER_03: See you later, Brian.
59:11
SPEAKER_01: Bye.