Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 142 - 10/16/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 142 - 10/16/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:17
Hello and welcome to Episode. 1. 42 of the all systems go sports
0:23
betting podcast powered by rhythm.
0:26
I'm your host, Josh. Applebaum.
0:32
What's going on everyone? Happy Wednesday.
0:34
We are halfway. Through our work week.
0:37
We're now midway through October.
0:38
Before you know it, it'll be Halloween.
0:41
So it's a fun time of year. Of course, as Halloween is one
0:43
of my. Favorite holidays and I do.
0:44
Love the seasons changing the. Foliage is getting pretty good.
0:48
Here in New England as we got a lot of orange and Reds.
0:51
Never gets old even though I'm born and raised in New England.
0:53
One of the best times of year and a good time of year to be
0:56
betting on sports. So we got a lot to get to on
0:59
today's podcast, guys, I have a. Little bit of everything.
1:02
A three pack for you tonight, including a play on a college
1:05
football game, a WNBA finals game, and an NHL game for
1:10
tonight. So as always, 3 pack.
1:12
Let's try to get 2 out of 3 go. Two and one eek out a winning
1:15
night. But then also I want to talk a
1:16
little bit of NFL Week 7. We talked yesterday.
1:19
An early look on college football Hope.
1:21
You guys were able to. I don't know, follow some advice
1:24
yesterday because couple teams that we talked about are seeing
1:27
line movement in their favor. We talked Arkansas plus 3.
1:30
They're down to 2 1/2 against LSU.
1:33
We also talked about. What was it?
1:35
South Carolina getting 3. They're down to 2 1/2 against
1:38
Oklahoma. So we're already starting to see
1:41
some lines move and hopefully today we'll put in some good
1:43
bets and get some closing line. Value I got 3 plays.
1:46
For you for NFL week 7 to look ahead to and then going to
1:50
finish up the pod with some NBA talk because I know the NBA
1:53
season, which is one of the best times a year to be betting on
1:56
sports as NBAI would argue is kind of the second best or
1:59
second most popular sport to bet on.
2:02
Obviously besides you know football, NFL and college but
2:05
NBA lot of money making opportunities and I always like
2:07
to start every new season with a couple win totals so I have two
2:11
win total. Bets for you today.
2:13
Luckily I got a new. Batch of data for my.
2:15
Buddy John Ewing and 1:00. Is a bit of a.
2:18
Continuity play the other one. Is a epic.
2:21
Data-driven play, looking at two teams to go over their win
2:24
total, so stay tuned for that. Now looking back to our last
2:27
night guys. Shop for the best line, shop for
2:30
the best line, shop for the best line.
2:32
If you did that and you're able to get Kennesaw State at plus 9
2:36
1/2, remember. We talked.
2:37
About Bet MGM and Fanatics both handing out Kennesaw State plus
2:40
9 1/2, you had a bunch of other shops that were at 9, even had
2:44
some shops closed at 8 1/2. So the important thing there
2:46
again, was having multiple outs. And again, this is that's the
2:50
kind of game where like if you had Kennesaw State plus 9 1/2,
2:54
you see the value and the importance of having multiple
2:56
outs. If you had gotten a nine or even
2:58
an 8 1/2, you push or lose because Kennesaw ended up losing
3:01
by exactly 9 points. Tells you how good the odds
3:03
makers are. But if that's a play you lost
3:05
because you got an 8 1/2 that hopefully will make you say,
3:08
hey, I will never. Go through that again.
3:10
I will open up and spend the, you know, 10-15 minutes it takes
3:13
to open up a new account because that is the importance of
3:16
getting the best number. So Kennesaw State plus 9 1/2,
3:19
I'm grading that as a win because a lot of us did get the
3:22
hook on the 9 1/2. Also got the Carolina Hurricanes
3:25
and a nice. Rest first tired spot.
3:27
Only loser was the Yankees under seven.
3:30
Thought we might have a chance there and then Aaron Judge hits
3:32
a bomb to center field to to kill our under 7.
3:35
But either way, again hope you got Kennesaw in the 9 1/2.
3:38
If so, 2 and 1 + 0.49 units last night.
3:42
So let's see if we can keep it going and see if we can turn in
3:45
a winning day for today. So I want to start off with.
3:48
Some college football. Because that's the big one here
3:50
tonight. Or there's a double header here
3:53
and we're graced with pretty much college football every
3:55
single day moving forward until, I don't even know, New Year's or
3:59
bowl season. But anyway, I'm going to focus
4:01
on the early game, the most heavily backed game of the
4:03
night, Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State.
4:06
Now this is a 7:00 game on ESPN 2.
4:10
It's also the most heavily backed game of the night because
4:12
it's 2 pretty good teams here, both from Conference USA.
4:15
We have Western Kentucky coming into this one with a four and
4:18
two record. They just had a big win over
4:21
UTEP, 44 to 17. You look at Sam Houston, they've
4:25
been great as well, 5:00 and 1:00.
4:27
They've won four straight after they went one to one to start
4:31
the year. So what's audible to me here is
4:33
we have a very short number. And it's a very lopsided play
4:36
toward the favorite. Sam Houston State, Everyone's
4:38
playing Sam Houston State tonight.
4:39
They're getting upwards of 67% of spread bets, yet Sam Houston
4:45
State open at a lot of shops as a favorite of -3 now that minus.
4:50
3 is all the way. Down to -2 I even see a -, 1 1/2
4:55
out there. So this.
4:56
Is right up my alley. We have public all over Sam
4:58
Houston. You know, it's a short number.
5:00
They're at home. They have the slightly better
5:02
record 5 and one versus 4:00 and 2:00.
5:04
Yet despite. 2/3 of bets going Sam Houston.
5:07
This line's falling back toward Western Kentucky again.
5:10
You were sitting Sam Houston State -3 pretty much all week.
5:14
Last couple days or so. Now I've seen it again steadily
5:17
fall from three down to 2 1/2 down to 2, and some shops even
5:21
down to 1 1/2 now. As always.
5:24
Because we talked about Kennesaw yesterday with the 9 1/2
5:26
covering the number. Do everything you can to shop
5:29
around and get the. Best price here because.
5:30
I was able to find at. Let me double check here at.
5:35
I want to say it was Bet MGM. Let me just double check to make
5:39
sure it's available because Bet MGM is offering plus 2 1/2 on
5:43
Western Kentucky. So again, I think the importance
5:45
of shopping around isn't just to get the best number, but
5:47
obviously it's to find that outlier book because I'm looking
5:50
at most shops that are Western Kentucky again now +2 or even
5:55
some 1 1/2's out there, like Fanduel's down to 1 1/2.
5:58
I'm looking at it right now, my Bet MGM app in the state of
6:01
Massachusetts where I live, Western Kentucky plus 2 1/2 at
6:05
-115 so I'm going to jump on the 2 1/2 again.
6:08
Shop around, that's Bet MGM. You should be able to find a
6:10
bunch of twos at least. Try to get the two.
6:13
But again, Bet MGM is your best number here.
6:15
But aside from everyone playing Sam Houston State and the Lions
6:18
go to Western Kentucky, really sharp RLM, you've now only
6:23
gotten 33% of bets on Western Kentucky.
6:25
So just a straight up contrarian play.
6:27
Most heavily bet Game of the night #1 Contrarian spot
6:30
Conference USA. Two teams here from the same
6:32
conference. Take that dog.
6:34
Built in familiarity levels the playing field benefits the team
6:37
getting points. You also get our short Rd. dog.
6:39
System. If you're a short Rd. dog
6:41
getting 4 points or less, that system is 55% against the.
6:45
Spread This year it's. 54% / a long track record and big sample
6:49
size all the way since 2012 and I always mention it when it
6:52
comes to the system. Might be like Josh.
6:54
Why'd you pick? Four or less well.
6:56
The data shows that the four or less is.
6:58
Your sweet spot. Because think about it this way.
7:01
If you look at. Home field advantage, typically
7:03
it's three points. Now in the NFL, we've seen that
7:06
it's gotten a little bit lower pretty much since COVID.
7:08
It's down to 1 1/2 or two points at some shops.
7:10
There's only a few stadiums still that are three points like
7:14
Mile High or you know, like Arrowhead because of the noise.
7:17
College football. It's roughly still 3.
7:19
Points, and think of it this way, if you're a dog getting 4
7:21
or less on the road, that means basically that on a neutral site
7:25
it's basically a pick em game because if you subtract the
7:28
three points, you're basically around to pick em.
7:31
Also Western. Kentucky would be a dog who can
7:33
score system match. If you look at Western Kentucky
7:36
so far on the season, they are averaging 28.3 points per game.
7:42
And actually they've played two conference games and they've
7:44
scored. Let's see 46.
7:47
And a half points per game. So they played well in
7:49
conference, they played well offensively just overall and
7:53
really hopefully that will benefit us in a dog who can
7:55
score system match. So you're putting up, you know,
7:57
a bunch of points here. Makes it easier.
7:59
To to keep pace or. Cover that number or back to our
8:01
cover. I was also doing some research
8:03
here. Kaden Veltkamp, he is the
8:06
quarterback for Western Kentucky.
8:08
He actually is number one in the conference in passing yards per
8:11
game, nearly 280 passing yards per game.
8:14
So if I'm on a dog. I want a good QB.
8:16
Who can move the chains put up some points Sam Houston.
8:20
I was also reading about how they just entered FBS last.
8:24
Year. So it's their second year
8:26
amongst the big boys here. So that's a big step up in
8:28
weight class versus Western Kentucky obviously has been
8:31
Conference USA. FBS for quite a while.
8:34
Which makes it even more surprising how Sam Houston's
8:36
been so good this year. But I was also reading about a
8:39
big contrast in styles because Sam Houston really runs the ball
8:43
a lot and Western Kentucky has a pretty decent run defense,
8:46
whereas Western Kentucky. Throws it a lot.
8:49
So if you think about the team that runs it a lot, you're going
8:52
to chew up the clock. It's kind of a, you know, just
8:54
chunk. Chunk plays here slow and
8:56
steady. Versus A-Team who?
8:58
Can throw the ball proficiently, you know, a little bit easier
9:01
to. Score takes less.
9:02
Time as well. So last angle here guys.
9:05
Would be a good. Rhythm Edge rhythm is
9:08
predicting. I have two models here.
9:10
One model says Sam Houston should be a -, 0.3 point
9:14
favorite, so a .3 point favorite.
9:17
And then I have another model, my Josh model, that says CM
9:19
Houston should be -1.8. So basically a zero point.
9:23
Three and a 1.8 and we're getting hopefully that 2 1/2
9:27
from BET MGM. Good value there as this is
9:30
basically. A coin flip game.
9:31
I'm going to take the line move. I'm going to take the contrarian
9:34
play. I'm going to take the better
9:35
passing offense against a team that, again, just stepped up to
9:39
the big leagues here. Starting last year so add it all
9:41
up guys, I'm. Going to go Western Kentucky.
9:43
Good sharp dog RLM. Good system matches good rhythm
9:47
edge. I'm on Western Kentucky at plus
9:49
2 1/2 from Bet MGM. Secondly, let's go to the WNBA
9:54
because we have a WNBA Finals game here tonight which.
9:58
Will be of course the. Lynx hosting the Liberty, and we
10:02
had the first two games in, I believe it was Barclays Center
10:05
in New York. I thought it was Madison Square
10:07
Garden. It's actually Barclays.
10:09
But we saw basically a split. So we saw in the first game.
10:13
You had the member. That was the.
10:15
Game we took the. Over on and didn't have to sweat
10:17
that one too much It was a 93 or sorry a 95 to 93 win by the Lynx
10:23
so went way over that total. Game 2 Liberty came back and won
10:26
80 to 66. Now the series shifts to
10:29
Minnesota. So in terms.
10:31
Of what we've seen across the market.
10:32
Here a couple things jumped out to me.
10:34
One is you did see a line move in favor of the Liberty.
10:37
The Liberty opened as low as a -, 1 1/2 point favorite.
10:41
They're now up to -3 So we have seen that line go toward the
10:44
Liberty and they're getting a pretty good bet split 60% bets,
10:47
83% money. If you like the Liberty, you
10:50
want a money line them. I'm not going to argue with you.
10:52
You have seen postseason favorites straight up go 15 and
10:55
479% this year on the money line.
10:58
Tonight, the Liberty around -165 but.
11:01
I'm going to look toward a total and I'm going to go over in this
11:04
one. Give me.
11:05
The over 160 1/2 now this total open at 1:00. 60 1/2 and.
11:10
Pretty much stayed there for. I would argue a couple.
11:13
Days then we actually. Saw a couple books get.
11:15
Down to 159 1/2. Yesterday, now it's back up to
11:19
160 1/2 and I actually. See some shops going to 161.
11:23
So late movement is breaking over.
11:25
Now currently you are getting. 68% of bets, but nearly 70. 5%
11:29
of money going over. What I like about this over
11:33
couple things. One is we mentioned it in game
11:36
one and it flew way over. These are two of your best
11:39
offensive rating teams in the. WNBA.
11:41
They're both top four in the regular season.
11:43
Liberty was #1 links were #4 You also get the liberty they are #1
11:49
and three pointers made during the regular season.
11:51
The links were #3 both around 10.
11:53
Three points per game, 3 pointers per game.
11:56
They're both top five in in free throw percentage.
11:58
So you get fouled, make your free throws.
12:00
Last 10 games, the links are 8 and two to the over short spread
12:05
here. I know it moved a bit toward the
12:07
Liberty, but still 3 point spread, you would think
12:10
competitive game back and forth. Who knows, maybe another
12:12
overtime game. So that would be an angle here
12:15
to lean toward the over. And then here's a little quote
12:18
that I was I found, which was interesting because it was
12:22
Sabrina Yanescu who is one of the best players on the liberty.
12:26
She averages like 20 points a game member.
12:27
She had the three-point contest against Steph Curry during the
12:30
All Star game. But she had an interesting
12:33
quote, which may be like the over she Inesco said.
12:37
And this was an article just Google, I think it's from
12:40
Reuters, Reuters Sports. But UNESCO said New York had a
12:44
good read on what Minnesota was doing on defense quote going
12:47
back and watching film of game two.
12:49
We weren't even scratching the surface of how good we could be.
12:52
We still made so many mistakes offensively, but I think that's
12:55
what's exciting about going into this next game.
12:57
We can control a lot of that and continue to figure out our.
13:00
Best shot is. Offensively and how we can get
13:02
it and score points. So that's a little Intel here
13:06
where they're feeling good about maybe something they saw in film
13:09
and maybe matching up and scoring points, which again
13:12
would be beneficial to that over.
13:14
And then a little cherry on top, Rhythm Edge Rhythm is predicting
13:18
with their AI backed model a total of 163.2.
13:22
So again. If we're seeing some late game
13:24
day movement to the over two really good offensive teams here
13:28
and we're getting a rhythm edge where again the total should be
13:31
closer to 163, even 164 and we're able to get right now over
13:36
160 1/2, pretty good value there to take that over.
13:40
So shop around. I know there are a couple books
13:41
that are now at 161, but I am able to find a book.
13:46
Let me just double check. Currently, if we find a 160 1/2,
13:50
have they all gone up there? Let's see bet MGM.
13:55
There we go. Bet MGM is still at over 160
13:58
1/2, so again lands one. 61 you want.
14:01
To cash that bet over 160 1/2 Liberty and links.
14:05
Now let's go over to the NHL because we've made 4 bets in the
14:09
NHL. We lost our first two, but now
14:11
we've won two in a row. So maybe we're getting a little
14:13
mojo going here in the NHL. One game caught my eye tonight
14:17
with good sharp steam and a really good rest.
14:19
First tired advantage, LA Kings in the Toronto Maple Leafs.
14:23
So this is a 730 game Eastern Time tonight with the Kings
14:27
visiting Toronto up up north in Canada and I'm going to go with
14:31
the Maple Leafs in this one. Maple Leafs had a really good
14:34
line move. Maple Leafs open this game
14:35
around -160 and now been bet up to upwards of -180.
14:40
Now shop around. I got Toronto at -176 at
14:43
FanDuel. I saw.
14:44
Caesar's at -190 so it goes to show you again, shopping around.
14:48
If I win and you win at different numbers, we both win,
14:51
but betting trips first, betting to win.
14:53
I'm going to get more back if I play a -, 176 versus you playing
14:57
a -, 190. So again, shop around as always,
15:00
which is maybe the theme of the day after Kennesaw State last
15:02
night. But anyway, good steam toward
15:04
Toronto -160 let's split the difference.
15:07
Call it now -180 big rest, first heart advantage.
15:10
Toronto hasn't played since the 12th, so they last played on
15:15
Saturday, and you had the LA Kings last play on Monday the
15:19
14th. Now the Kings are also playing
15:21
their third game in five days. Toronto is playing just their
15:25
second game in six days. So Toronto is much more rested.
15:29
Kings are in the tired fade spot.
15:31
Also, the Kings are playing their fourth straight Rd. game
15:34
to start the year. Toronto's playing their second
15:36
straight home game. So not only is Toronto rested,
15:39
but their last game was at home. They've been sleeping in their
15:42
own bed, practicing in their own stadium, their own arena here.
15:46
So that's an advantage to Toronto versus the Kings on a
15:48
long road trip to start the year.
15:50
But also I'm going to look at the goaltending matchup tonight
15:53
and I think it's a big advantage.
15:54
In terms of the Leafs, they have Anthony Stolars.
15:58
He's been good to start the year one in one, 1.54 goals against,
16:02
a 99.29 say percentage or 940 say percentage.
16:07
Last year he was the backup for the Panthers, 16 and 7 two point
16:11
O, three goals against, 925 say percentage.
16:14
He was a second round pick so again had a good pedigree to
16:18
start. He'll be opposed by.
16:20
David Riddich, who was a journeyman, it's his first start
16:23
of the year with the Kings. Last year he'd had a good year
16:27
with the Kings, 13 and six, 2.16 goals against, 921 save
16:31
percentage. That was one of his best years.
16:33
Now he's making his first start. A journeyman guy who wasn't
16:36
drafted, I don't believe versus stole ours, who it was good this
16:40
year, good last year and was a second round pick.
16:42
To me, the advantage here is with stole ours and the rest of
16:44
the Leafs. You also get the defensive
16:47
metrics here. I know it's early to start the
16:48
year, but much better defensively for the Leafs.
16:52
The Leafs are only giving up 1.67 goals against per game.
16:56
Kings are giving up 3.67 goals against per game, and they just
16:59
lost eight to seven against Ottawa in overtime.
17:03
They give up, you know, eight goals there.
17:05
So I'm going to back the rest of team.
17:06
I'm going to take the team with the line move, knock on wood.
17:09
On paper at least, the better goal tending and much better
17:12
defensive club here. Shop around, I'm going Toronto
17:14
Maple Leafs at -176 that was that FanDuel.
17:19
Now let's move over to the NFL. Is there a couple early games in
17:23
the NFL that caught my eye that I was excited to share with you
17:26
guys? So first one that jumped out to
17:28
me, Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers.
17:31
Packers look good right now guys.
17:33
This game opened with the Packers listed as a very short 1
17:38
1/2 point home favorite and the public says 2 good teams.
17:41
Houston, Green Bay, who knows, maybe, maybe a Super Bowl match
17:45
up here, although I bet the Chiefs have something to say
17:47
about that. But anyway, open -1 1/2 Green
17:50
Bay public split. What do I always tell you guys
17:52
about 5050 line moves? 5050 bet splits.
17:55
Line shouldn't move at all, yet we're seeing this line go to
17:58
Green Bay. Tells us smart money is on Green
18:00
Bay. Green Bay is only getting 50% of
18:03
bets. But 66%?
18:04
Of money, so further evidence of pro money on Green Bay.
18:08
Non conference favorite. Lack of familiarity benefiting
18:11
the better team. Also a sneaky schedule edge.
18:14
You look at the Texans, they're playing their second straight
18:18
game or sorry, the Packers are playing their second straight
18:22
home game. Texans are playing their second
18:24
straight Rd. game. So kind of a tough spot.
18:27
But again, to me, it's all based on the 5050 line move.
18:30
Tickets are split, but the lines going to Green Bay -1 1/2 up to
18:33
-2 1/2 - 3. So it is juiced up like it may
18:37
get back down to 2 1/2. But as of right now, I'm looking
18:39
at Green Bay on the money line around -145 next one they call
18:44
my eye very similar, Detroit and Minnesota.
18:47
We have two good teams obviously battling in that NFC North.
18:50
And this game opens very short home favorite Minnesota -1 and
18:55
the public says wrong team is favored, wrong team is favored,
18:59
wrong team is favored. Detroit's the better team.
19:01
Take the one all day with Detroit.
19:03
However, despite 70% of bets going Detroit guys, this line
19:07
has moved further toward Minnesota -1 up to -2 and some
19:11
shops even got up to -2 1/2 earlier today.
19:14
That'll be a classic fade the trendy dog public Detroit line
19:17
going to Minnesota. Minnesota is one of your top
19:19
contrarian plays as of right now.
19:20
This is most heavily bet early 1:00 game and 70% around
19:25
Detroit. So therefore, Minnesota great
19:26
contrarian value. Only 30%.
19:29
Minnesota has some good correlative betting value.
19:31
This is a very high total of 50 and you're a very short favorite
19:34
of Minnesota -2 now. So basically more expected point
19:38
scored easier for that small favorite to cover.
19:41
Vikings could be a money line play for you.
19:43
That's what I'm leaning on right now around -135 they currently
19:48
have a good rest first tired advantages as well.
19:50
I buried the lead, but Minnesota is off A by.
19:52
Detroit obviously played Dallas. They rolled against Dallas.
19:56
Aiden Hutchinson broke his leg though.
19:57
So no more Aiden Hutchinson this year.
20:00
But if you look at favorites off A by, they're 55% against the
20:03
spread since 22,004. So I'm looking at Minnesota just
20:07
as I'm looking at Green Bay. And then one more for you.
20:11
The Jets in Pittsburgh, I don't know how many times I can bang
20:13
my head against the wall and play The Jets, but maybe I'll do
20:16
it one more time because I'm liking The Jets.
20:18
Early, early, heavy lean for me against Pittsburgh.
20:21
Sunday Night Football. The Jets open this game.
20:24
As a very. Short actually dog in this one.
20:27
A lot of books open Pittsburgh -1 at home.
20:29
They've now flipped to jets -1 1/2 or -2 on the road.
20:34
And that's notable because if you look at the bet split, only
20:37
47% bets, but 62% of money is on the jet.
20:41
So basically a 5050 line move dog to fave.
20:44
You do have more money here. Here is an angle Rd. favorites
20:48
in the NFL this year. Remember it was the the chalk
20:51
you know of the century week last week with all those public
20:54
favorites and chalk plays coming through and popular bets.
20:57
But Rd. favorites this year 24 and seven against the spread 77%
21:03
also buy low, sell high. Jets are off a loss and failed
21:06
to cover versus the Steelers. Who had that big win and cover
21:11
against who was it they beat up on the Raiders last week?
21:14
Money line play for The Jets. That's what I'd be looking at
21:16
around -130 Sean Smith is a big Rd. ref and you are looking at
21:21
most likely probably Russell Wilson it sounds like starting
21:25
for Pittsburgh and Devante Adams who The Jets just traded for,
21:28
most likely going to play. Isn't it funny as hamstring is
21:30
totally fine now now that he got traded.
21:33
But either way guys, Jets caught my eye.
21:35
So Jets, Minnesota and Green Bay most likely all going to be
21:39
money line plays for me. So no reason to bet it right
21:42
now. Let's monitor it.
21:44
But that's early. Really sharp movement for NFL
21:47
Week 7. Now to finish up the.
21:49
Pod. I know you guys have been
21:51
waiting for some NBA talk. NBA actually starts I believe
21:54
next week. But I found a couple wind totals
21:57
that caught my eye. Let's start with an epic
22:00
data-driven wind total. So might might hear me say it
22:04
all the time, but I love having futures bets, I love having wind
22:07
totals #1 there's a couple reasons why.
22:10
Obviously you want to make money.
22:11
It takes patience, takes liquidity and your bankroll to
22:14
be able to set aside this money and not touch it for six months.
22:18
But it gives you a rooting interest throughout the year,
22:20
something to look forward to, something to track and monitor.
22:23
But also, you know, like I have two NBA wind totals that I'm
22:26
going to share with you. But I researched like 7 or 8
22:28
teams. So in the process of just
22:31
researching and figuring out if there's any place to make, I've
22:35
learned a little bit more about each team.
22:37
So just the thought process of, you know, betting win totals,
22:40
you may only bet a couple, but you probably researched a bunch
22:43
and maybe that'll benefit you with a little more information
22:45
on these teams, a little more familiarity with their depth
22:48
charts, their schedules, where the smart money is leaning could
22:51
be a benefit later in the year. So without further ado, the
22:55
first win total that caught my eye.
22:57
This is a team that is on the rise.
22:59
Young team had a great year. Maybe it was a year.
23:02
Year too early. To make a big postseason run,
23:05
but I'm liking them to go over their win total.
23:08
I'm talking about the OK C Thunder, the Oklahoma City
23:11
Thunder. Oklahoma City Thunder over 56.5
23:17
wins. So can the OK C Thunder win US
23:19
57 games this year? I think they can and the data
23:23
agrees. So let's start with the data,
23:25
then I'll give you some supplementary factors in terms
23:28
of the data which came from Bet MGM, which I was waiting for and
23:33
is now at at its strongest point because the season's about to
23:35
start, means a lot of action came in.
23:37
But Oklahoma City Thunder, they open the offseason.
23:39
Will they win total at Bet MGM of 55 1/2.
23:43
Now they're up to 56 1/2. And even though they've risen a
23:46
full a full win, it's 56 1/2 over at -135 S Not only did it
23:52
take up a full game, but it ticked up and is being juiced up
23:55
over. So it tells me a lot of money
23:57
came in on OKC over. Now they're getting 82% of bets
24:01
on the over 95% of money on the over.
24:05
So you know, the same model we use for UFC or you know, any
24:09
other awards market bets, dollars line movement, low bets,
24:13
higher dollars line move to the over.
24:15
So OKC is popping right now to win 57 games or more.
24:20
And this is kind of a criteria that I used for the Arizona
24:24
Diamondbacks because if you remember Arizona Diamondbacks,
24:28
that was over 83 1/2 wins. I want to say they they ended
24:31
with 50 or 84 wins the year before.
24:34
So going into it, I said, can you be the same team you were
24:37
last year or a little bit better?
24:39
And that's the same thought process I'm using for OK C
24:42
because OK C last year went 57 and 25.
24:46
Now their win total is over 56 1/2.
24:48
So can they be the same team as last year, 57 wins last year,
24:53
give me 57 this year or obviously better?
24:55
I think they can. You look at what they've done
24:58
and you look at their, their lineup #1 you have a great core
25:02
of young players. Shay Gilgeous, Alexander
25:05
obviously isn't a, you know, an MVP candidate.
25:08
Dort, Jalen Williams was a big, you know, most improved player.
25:11
He was in the conversation. Chet Holmgren obviously is, you
25:15
know, your core player here at getting better each year.
25:18
So you have your core and then you had some really good
25:20
pickups. Sam Presti again after
25:22
stockpiling all the picks, great GM.
25:25
But he brought in Isaiah Hartenstein, who is a good two
25:29
way player from the the New York Knicks to play center and also
25:32
brought in Alex Caruso. You know, make fun of him if you
25:35
want. He's a kind of a weird looking
25:37
dude, but he plays great defense.
25:39
So you added two good players to that, that core of your top
25:44
three with SGA Dort, Williams and and I guess your top four
25:48
with Holmgren, but you had Hartenstein, you had Caruso.
25:52
The metrics loved OKC last year. They scored a ton of points, but
25:55
they really played great defense.
25:56
And I was reading about how I think it's case and Wallace Dort
26:00
and maybe a couple other guys, but they have a group chat that
26:02
basically only like the the really good defensive guys in
26:05
the team are in and they said they added Caruso to the
26:08
defensive group chat. So I was, I was reading some of
26:11
the, you know, the, I don't know what you call them the the
26:14
basketball heads, the nerds talking about how the analytics
26:18
love the defense and now adding Caruso.
26:21
So that tells me if you're a good young team who's on the
26:24
rise, you had a couple good additions, the markets agreeing
26:26
with you. That's fine by me guys.
26:28
I'm going to go OKC over 56 1/2 wins.
26:32
Now, all the data I gave you was from Bet MGM.
26:34
So shop around. Maybe you find a 55 1/2 or a 56
26:38
out there, but 56 1/2, try to find the lowest juice you can.
26:42
I found a book at over 56 1/2 at -120 so I'm going OK, C / 56 1/2
26:49
wins now. My second win total, you can
26:52
call me a Homa. It's a little bit of a Homa
26:54
play. Boston Celtics over 58 1/2 wins.
26:59
Now I'm going to tell you right now, if you like the Celtics
27:01
under, I really don't argue with you too much.
27:04
The win total open at 58 1/2. It's still 58 1/2, but you have
27:08
56% bets, 80% money on the under, and now the under is
27:13
juiced 58 1/2 under at -130 So if we're going strictly by the
27:17
data, there could be a reason here to take the Celtics under
27:21
58 1/2 wins. Now I'm going to go over.
27:26
I don't typically like to do this.
27:27
This is going against a little bit of data here, but I like the
27:31
value play. I'm not going to call.
27:33
This a sharp. Bet, but a value bet over 58 1/2
27:36
at plus one O 5 S Part of the value play is that we're getting
27:39
plus money. You risk 100 on this bet, you
27:43
get out, you get one O 5 back and 100 back if you win.
27:46
So we're getting a little plus money, which is typically rare
27:48
when it comes to win totals. But if you look at the Celtics
27:51
last year, 64 and 18 again had a fantastic year.
27:56
Even if they take a step back, instead of 64 wins, you get to
28:00
59. We still cash this over, and I'm
28:03
looking at this team actually being better than last year, and
28:06
I'm gonna give you a couple of reasons why #1 coaching.
28:10
Joe Missoula made a bunch of mistakes year one, Year 2,
28:14
obviously they win the championship.
28:15
Now you're going into year three.
28:17
Another thing I like with win totals, if you're betting it
28:19
over is continuity stability, just like OK C making editions
28:23
and keeping their core Celtics. Pretty much everybody got paid.
28:26
They kept everybody. They they resigned everybody.
28:29
Jason Tatum got his big deal. Jalen Brown got his big deal a
28:32
year earlier. They resigned Derek White.
28:35
They resigned Porzingis, who was going to start the year on the
28:38
injured list, but probably going to come back around December.
28:41
They locked up Drew Holiday. So they have the same starting
28:44
five and they've made some good depth additions.
28:47
Like if you look at the Celtics depth right now, they resigned
28:51
Sam Houser, who can shoot threes, Peyton Pritchard, Luke
28:55
Cornett, Lonnie Walker, Xavier Tillman.
28:58
I mean, they're pretty deep at every single position.
29:01
And I'm going to bank on a motivational edge in terms of
29:05
Tatum and Brown because this team goes as far as Tatum and
29:08
Brown will take them. They finally broke through 1A
29:10
title last year. But I think these guys have a
29:13
little bit of chip on their shoulder.
29:15
Jason Tatum's chip on his shoulder is that he still hasn't
29:17
won MVP. But more importantly, if you
29:20
were in the Boston, you know, kind of market or listen to talk
29:22
radio over the summer, he basically was benched the entire
29:26
Olympics. He didn't play at all.
29:28
So I think there's a chip on his shoulder against Steve Kerr
29:31
against, you know, not playing or being, you know, stapled to
29:34
the bench here. There's a lot of talk of why is
29:37
he being so mistreated? Why isn't he getting any minutes
29:39
in the Olympics? I think maybe that's a a
29:42
motivational edge that he can take into this year.
29:44
Remember, he did not win Finals MVP.
29:46
That was Jaylen Brown. So I think you're going to get
29:48
the best version of Tatum with again, something to to play for.
29:52
Then you'll get Jaylen Brown. Jaylen Brown didn't even make
29:55
the Olympic team. Jaylen Brown, I want to say was
29:57
either second or third team, all NBA.
30:00
But Jaylen Brown, you don't have to worry about him.
30:02
He's always got a chip on his shoulder.
30:04
But I think both of those two players, like if they won every
30:07
award, they want everything. You worry that, hey, it's only
30:10
natural to maybe not have that drive, not have that.
30:13
I don't know that appetite for winning because you've got
30:16
you've gotten everything. I think there's still some
30:18
things for for these guys to shoot for.
30:20
So even though again, the data does tell you under 58 1/2 could
30:24
be the sharp play. I'm going to take a value bet
30:27
the Celtics team and even if you look at them in the preseason,
30:29
which again, take it with a grain of salt, they're pretty
30:31
much rolling everybody. I like the Celtics to have
30:33
another really good year. I'm on Celtics over 58 1/2 wins
30:38
at plus one O 5. That about does it for episode
30:41
1. 42 of the all. Systems Go sports betting
30:45
podcast powered by rhythm. We hit on pretty much everything
30:47
today, guys. I didn't touch Major League
30:49
Baseball, the Mets and the Dodgers.
30:51
I just didn't really find much there either way.
30:54
There's a little bit of line movement toward the Dodgers.
30:56
Actually, the total fell eight to seven half.
30:58
So if you're playing that game, good luck.
31:01
I hope you win. I just didn't want to force it.
31:03
But anyway. If you enjoy this podcast.
31:06
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
31:08
start by asking a favor of you. Could you do me a solid if you
31:11
enjoy this pod, if you enjoy the breakdowns, if you've learned a
31:14
thing or two about a thing or two, and maybe you want to let
31:17
me know you appreciate the hard work that I put in hosting this
31:20
pod each day. Could you do me a solid, do me a
31:22
favor, make me happy by giving this podcast a five star review.
31:27
All you got to do if you're listening on Spotify or iTunes
31:29
is go to rate or review, leave five stars.
31:32
Boom. That'll help us to rise up the
31:33
charts, gain more credibility, more listens.
31:36
If you want to click that follow button, that'll be great as
31:39
well. That that way you'll be alerted
31:40
as soon as it drops each day. If you want a word of mouth,
31:43
tell a friend, recommend it to a buddy of yours.
31:45
That'll be great as well. If you want to leave a kind kind
31:47
comment or review, that'll be great also, but please give this
31:51
pod a five star review. Secondly, if you enjoy these
31:54
breakdowns from a data-driven perspective, you no longer are
31:57
throwing darts. You're not betting based on your
31:59
gut instinct or bias. You are betting based on what
32:02
the market is telling you, picking up on clues in terms of
32:05
where's the public, where's the sharps bet percentage line move
32:08
splits, betting systems, flat bedding, avoiding parlays of
32:13
anything that we talked about interests you as made you a
32:16
sharper, better, whatever the case may be.
32:18
If you enjoy this pod and you want to learn more about
32:21
data-driven bedding, guess what? I wrote a book on data-driven
32:24
bedding. Go buy a copy.
32:25
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to sports
32:29
betting. Pick one up for you or a friend
32:31
or a buddy of yours. Maybe somebody who parlays all
32:34
the time or has no, no, no interest in flatbedding or needs
32:39
to learn about bankroll management or how to read
32:41
numbers. Or maybe someone in your life
32:43
maybe is in a newly legalized state or wants to get into
32:46
bedding and doesn't know where to begin.
32:48
It makes a great stocking stuffer or a present for a, you
32:51
know, a birthday. But it would it would tell you
32:53
all about the data-driven approach, how lines are set, how
32:56
and why they move, how to read line movement, how to locate
32:58
sharp action, how to go contrarian, how to place the bet
33:01
in person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
33:04
a bankroll management plan. It's all included in the
33:06
everything guide to sports betting.
33:08
So pick one up for you or friend and again, bring it to the book.
33:12
I'll sign it for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
33:14
ale and we'll sweat some sharp games together next.
33:17
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Rhythm or
33:20
Juice Reel yet? Well, if you haven't, go do that
33:23
right now. All you got to do is click the
33:24
custom links that are located in the bio description of the pod.
33:28
So for today, they'll say something like an episode 142.
33:31
Josh dishes out a three pack of sweats, previews NFL week 7 and
33:35
has a couple NBA win tunnels. OK, scroll below that.
33:38
Go beyond that should be a link for Juice Reel and Rhythm.
33:41
Click those custom links. Juice Reel and Rhythm are my two
33:44
favorite sports betting apps. They help me win.
33:46
They'll help you win so rhythm of course for their AI backed
33:50
models and predictions for game bets and player props and juice
33:53
reel got a lot of great stuff. You can tell the best bet picks
33:56
from robo Jackson, the AI model, or you can look at sharp mush
34:00
opportunities. You can look at arbitrage bets
34:03
each day. You can have detailed bets and
34:05
dollar breakdowns for each game based on people have synced
34:08
their sports books to the app. And of course, you'll also be
34:11
able to sync your own books and get a running record of your
34:13
performance from the report card page O again, sign U for both
34:17
using those custom links located in the bio description of the
34:20
ASG OD O that all does it everybody.
34:23
I'll leave you with this, of course.
34:24
Two things. First, whether I see you at the
34:27
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
34:29
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in
34:32
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
34:35
Casino or MGM Springfield. And my neck of the woods in
34:38
Massachusetts are out in the desert where the true grinders
34:41
get down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where
34:43
the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point or
34:46
Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool
34:49
when he cash a big ticket wherever.
34:51
Maybe you're going to walk up to me.
34:53
You're going to show me Hurricanes ticket in the NHL
34:55
last night, but you're going to show me a Kennesaw ticket?
34:58
Kennesaw State baby plus 9 1/2, getting the best number, getting
35:02
the hook, cashing by the hook. You love to see it.
35:05
And then guess what? We'll sweat some sharp games
35:07
together. So as always, guys, stay sharp,
35:09
stay contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
35:12
side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
35:14
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
35:17
Of course not. You know, Yankees under was
35:19
juiced up like crazy last night. It went over.
35:21
Sometimes that's going to happen, but here's the thing,
35:24
anything can happen in a one off.
35:25
We're playing the long game. If we can consistently bet games
35:28
with our head and not our heart by reading the market, by going
35:31
contrarian against the public, with the house, with the pros
35:34
flat bet, avoid parlays and get that COV.
35:37
If we can do that long term, we're going to be successful
35:39
sports betters. So have a great night,
35:41
everybody. We'll be back at it tomorrow for
35:44
a big Thirsty Thursday, which will be episode 143 of the All
35:48
Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
35:51
Good luck everybody, have a great Wednesday night.