Latest / The Fourcast / JD Vance would back Trump third term, says close friend
Transcript
- 0:00Welcome to this special edition of the Forecast from Cambridge
- 0:02University. I'm very happy to say that my
- 0:05guest is Doctor James or he's the associate professor of the
- 0:09philosophy of religion at the university and a very close
- 0:12friend of the Vice President, JD Vance.
- 0:16And that's one of the reasons why he's happy to talk to us
- 0:18today. James, good to have you on the.
- 0:19Program good to be with you. JD Vance, right, your mate, he
- 0:22said. He's on the record for saying in
- 0:242016, Trump is irresponsible. You know, he's he's not up to
- 0:28the job of being president. And then, of course, that famous
- 0:30comparison, which he's been asked about, you know, ad
- 0:32nauseam, Trump, you know, could become America's Hitler.
- 0:36Explain your friend's journey from these really searing
- 0:40criticisms of the man who's now his boss to basically, you know,
- 0:44agreeing with everything the boss says today.
- 0:46What's happened in 2016? What's his journey?
- 0:48In 2016, I think you would have struggled to find anyone in
- 0:53American public life who would have said Trump running for
- 0:57president. Great.
- 0:59He seems so. He seems so responsible.
- 1:01He is what America needs. He's rational.
- 1:04He's predictable. He's got brilliant policy ideas.
- 1:06Nobody was saying that. But not everyone was saying he
- 1:08was Adolf Hitler in the making. Listen, I mean, that's that's.
- 1:11Quite an accusation I haven't seen.
- 1:13I haven't seen any evidence that he said he is out of.
- 1:15No, no, he said that, he said on the.
- 1:17On this point of view, he saw him as a strong man, and I think
- 1:20what? He knows he could become
- 1:21America's and. Everybody's calling Hitler
- 1:23nowadays. Everybody's Hitler.
- 1:24This is not a term that this is a term that is sadly being
- 1:28cheapened by its by overuse, I think.
- 1:30Look, let me just let me just finish what is striking about
- 1:34Vance's journey. First of all, it's a journey.
- 1:37Many vast swathes of the GOP class are still where Vance was
- 1:41in 2016. Vance is a very good
- 1:45exemplification of the principle that the willingness to change
- 1:49one's mind is the. Only sure sign is the only sure.
- 1:52Sign. That one's got one right.
- 1:53It's good old Keynes. When the facts change, my mind
- 1:55changes. What do you do?
- 1:56Sometimes you say it's hypocrisy or it's 2.
- 1:59Transactions. What's about ambition?
- 2:01He. Says I think he could be this.
- 2:03Trump comes along, does the opposite, does things that JD
- 2:07had been calling for implicitly hillbilly energy all the way
- 2:10through in terms of economics, economic populism, in terms of
- 2:14energy sovereignty, deregulation, border control.
- 2:17But even in 2020, at the end of the Trump administration, even
- 2:20in 2020, JD Vance is in the on the record.
- 2:22I think it's something. I think it's a mark of Trump's
- 2:26magnanimity that not only did he forgive Vance, calling him
- 2:31America's, possibly America's next Hitler, he made him his own
- 2:34vice president, some autocrat, you know, some some narcissist.
- 2:38Yeah. And so, yes, he's been on a
- 2:40journey. I think if you look at the
- 2:44strength of support he's shown from 2020 on one onwards, when
- 2:48he was running a very difficult Ohio campaign, it's very hard
- 2:51for us now to remember back in 2122.
- 2:53Trump is in. He's been written off by the.
- 2:56And actually, JD Vance's victory in that Senate, he was one of
- 2:59the few. The only the only the red way
- 3:02that there was that was his tiny little bit of a.
- 3:04Red one. It was a red trickle a.
- 3:05Red or red trickle. And it was Vance.
- 3:07And from there on in, from on the Senate floor at enormous
- 3:10political cost, very iced to take up very isolated views,
- 3:14isolations, isolated views, realist views on Ukraine and a
- 3:17whole range of other issues. It was a difficult thing to do.
- 3:20And he didn't waiver. Trump and Team Trump saw that.
- 3:24And that's why they thought that Donald needs a doe fur.
- 3:27He's our doe fur. And also, I guess JD Vance
- 3:30realised in this one example that if you attach yourself to
- 3:32Donald Trump and he attaches himself to you in some areas,
- 3:36that could be a winning ticket, right?
- 3:38You know, had he, had he not won that seat, I wonder what he
- 3:40would. Have in the summer of 2022, it
- 3:42seemed. In fact, I remember how
- 3:44concerned I was at the time. Is this really a good idea?
- 3:48I know you see yourself as being ideologically aligned with
- 3:51Trump, but look, he's got 95 legal cases against, so the
- 3:56guy's going to be in jail, not the Oval Office.
- 3:57What on earth are you doing? And yet he stuck with him
- 4:00through thick and thin. Do you see JD Vance as the
- 4:02future President of the United States?
- 4:04Yes, I do. You do you think he'll be
- 4:06elected in the next election? Well.
- 4:07I think he will be the Republican candidate in 2027 and
- 4:12I think he stands a very, very looking at approval ratings for
- 4:15the Democrat Party, which are lower than they've been in
- 4:17living memory. I suspect.
- 4:20Look, not going to make predictions.
- 4:22This is a very, very time of unprecedented flux in American
- 4:26politics. Of course, my sense is he is
- 4:29dead set to be Republican candidate for the next
- 4:33presidential election. And I think he on, you know, my,
- 4:36my sense is he's got a very good chance of being in the Oval.
- 4:39Office does he see that's that way I mean has he told you that
- 4:42he that's. That's what he's.
- 4:43He doesn't think about it at all, I think.
- 4:45No, I think he. Why don't I believe that?
- 4:48Because he's very conscious of people like you asking questions
- 4:51about it. And he is absolute.
- 4:52If you took in every public pronouncement, including the
- 4:55actually and as well as private pronouncements, as we saw from
- 4:58the Signal a few weeks ago, he was very clear about what is it
- 5:01the what is the president's mind on this?
- 5:03What is the president's view? And my sense is he's got his
- 5:07loyalty to Trump is, is absolute. 2028 for him is a long
- 5:11way off. And I suspect that he he within,
- 5:17within MAGA, he is being acclaimed as the Doefur, as the
- 5:20most obvious successor to Trump. And indeed, that's why I think
- 5:23Team Trump pushed so hard for him when it would have been
- 5:25easier to appoint a more, you know, electorally attractive
- 5:30running mate. I mean, Trump himself was out
- 5:32polling Vance in Ohio in 2022. It didn't make any electoral
- 5:36sense. It it I think what Team Trump
- 5:39recognised that was, you know, Vance was the future of MAGA.
- 5:42That if we want Trumpism to persist beyond Trump, then he's
- 5:46our man. So what is how does that tally
- 5:49with one plan that's been muted that, you know, President Trump
- 5:52talks about this quite openly. I might, might run for a third
- 5:55term, maybe not. That would, you know, either
- 5:58require a change of the Constitution, which is tough, or
- 6:01there's this ruse that Vance becomes the the main candidate,
- 6:05Donald Trump runs as the vice and they do a Switcher route.
- 6:07This is what Putin did with Medvedev.
- 6:09But do you think that your friend would agree with that?
- 6:11Like he he wins the presidency and then says, OK, Donald, off
- 6:15you take, you know, off you go for another term.
- 6:17I find that hard to imagine. I I.
- 6:19I think he would keep his counsel.
- 6:21I think he I think if, if he were pressed, if the Constitute,
- 6:25if he were asked, if the Constitution permitted it, would
- 6:28you want Trump to run for a third term?
- 6:30I think he'd say yes. If but the Constitution.
- 6:33Doesn't, but the Constitution doesn't.
- 6:34So I think look. But even you are putting a
- 6:37little question mark over that. What?
- 6:39No. What do you mean?
- 6:40Do I think that they're actually going to, he's going to, he's
- 6:42going to run for it? No, I think that's completely
- 6:44fanciful. Look, as always with Trump, look
- 6:45at what he says. Look at what he does, not what
- 6:48he says. And as I keep saying to you,
- 6:50you've got to do both right? Because he says a lot of stuff.
- 6:52You've got to weigh them correctly and I think too many
- 6:55in the media classes, particularly in the UK, tend to
- 6:58focus too much on what he says and not enough.
- 7:00On that's because he wants us to focus on it, right?
- 7:02It's about the attention of the economy.
- 7:03I want to talk about, you know, morality and tariffs.
- 7:06Is it moral for the United States to impose a tariff of
- 7:11what is it 45% on the Soto, you know, a country that's simply
- 7:14too poor to buy American goods? Is it?
- 7:18Is that Christian? Is that Christian behaviour?
- 7:20Let's. Just take a step back on the
- 7:22whole kind of tariffs question. It it is not, it's very easy to
- 7:26single out. Not just I'm glad you're saying
- 7:28that as a as a as an associate professor of the the philosophy
- 7:31of religion, we. Can come on to that, but then we
- 7:33can take. We want to take take a
- 7:35philosophical view of tariffs. We, we, we, we could take, we
- 7:37could take a look at Lesotho or we could take a look at that
- 7:40rock in the middle of nowhere with just Penguins on it.
- 7:42Yes, right now. So, so what's going on here, as
- 7:44I understand it from trade specialists and certainly not a
- 7:47trade specialist. If you're trying to signal to
- 7:51the world that you are interested, you you are
- 7:54passionate about reducing tariffs and getting to the point
- 7:57of a fairer trade and freer trade, then you can't allow any
- 8:01loopholes, right? You can't allow, you know, China
- 8:05to so funnel it's good through that's who to and so the
- 8:08questions you. Know one of the Chinese were
- 8:10using the sushi. I think that, well, that one
- 8:11just got caught up in the geographical drag.
- 8:13Absolutely right. And I think the question is but.
- 8:15That's the problem, isn't it? You know, this is a hammer for a
- 8:18nail. Do you want to use, you know,
- 8:19something slightly more precise? Look, from the Americans point
- 8:22of view, this is not a nail. This is actually a deep
- 8:25structural problem in the post war international order.
- 8:30Coming from the country that is by far the richest on the
- 8:33planet, that's not exactly done, you know, bad out of the system.
- 8:36It's done very bad. That has done very, very well,
- 8:38but has also catalysing the prosperity of major emerging
- 8:44civilisational actors who are plainly hostile to not just
- 8:48American interests, but the interests of all of us across
- 8:50the West. And I think that's certainly,
- 8:52certainly. Through About China.
- 8:53And talk and talk is absolutely about China.
- 8:55And no one disagrees with the fact that China been very
- 8:57naughty when it comes to trade. And so the.
- 8:58Sealing property rights says. Not, you know, how dare.
- 9:02Is it fair? Is it moral?
- 9:03Is it? But that is the question.
- 9:05Well, no, because hold on. Because well, then forget about
- 9:07Christian, there's there's fairness in trade, whether
- 9:09you're a Jew or a Muslim as well, right?
- 9:11So right. But is it fair?
- 9:14Is it and is it necessary? And is it?
- 9:16If you're a. Art James or.
- 9:18If you're a Christian politician, if you're any
- 9:20politician, to whom do you owe your first obligations and
- 9:25loyalties? To the people whom you
- 9:27represent. And from the American's point of
- 9:29view, the people that they represent have been marginalised
- 9:32and dispossessed. And but which people?
- 9:35Because when you're talking about the small businessman they
- 9:37know that imports Barbie dolls from China to sell in the well,
- 9:40let me just finish to sell in the toy shop down the road,
- 9:43small family business, they're going bust.
- 9:45You're talking about the auto workers who we had in the Rose
- 9:48Garden. They might not get the jobs that
- 9:50they've been promised as a result of all this.
- 9:52You're talking about your mates on Wall Street.
- 9:54Well, they're really upset because they've just lost a.
- 9:55Ton of money. The Trump Pants administration
- 9:58are desperate to see a quick, concrete solution to what they
- 10:03see as an unfair trading environment.
- 10:07And the question is really a tactical one.
- 10:09Do should they spend the next four years carefully negotiating
- 10:12bilateral trade agreements with the Lesotho and other, you know,
- 10:17other countries around the world?
- 10:18Don't bother with. The well, their view is this is
- 10:21not a nail. This is this, this is a serious
- 10:24problem that needs a bazooka. We've got to RIP the bandage
- 10:27off. What you're seeing is an
- 10:28attempt, an extremely, you know, an attempt to deal with an
- 10:32extremely complex problem. Roosevelt tried it in the 1940s.
- 10:36Reagan tried it in the 1980s to with with some success.
- 10:40He's attempting to reconfigure the entire global international
- 10:44order with respect to trade. And he sees in China credibly
- 10:48and plausibly A hostile civilisational actor that has
- 10:52done extremely well out of the United States, that is
- 10:55artificially manipulating its currency downwards to make its
- 10:58exports more attractive, that has been ripping off the
- 11:00American intellectual property for many, many, many years, and
- 11:04that has been imposing consistently higher tariffs than
- 11:07America's been imposing on it. Same with the European Union
- 11:10with respect to tariffs. One thing that really strikes
- 11:12me, especially about him, your friend JD Vance is, and you
- 11:16know, he's smart. He's written a great book.
- 11:17The Hillbilly Energy is a is a superb book.
- 11:20He is smart, but he's also angry.
- 11:23And that anger comes across whether he's dealing with
- 11:25Zelensky in the Oval Office, whether he's addressing
- 11:28Europeans at the Munich Security Summit.
- 11:31Where's that anger from? I don't need to tell you, Matt,
- 11:35as a reporter, A seasoned reporter on the United.
- 11:37And that's for the flat. Over years, over many, many
- 11:40years, that anger is one that you can see it in Hillbilly
- 11:45Elegy. You see it in the book.
- 11:46You see it in that sense of pride that he has in middle
- 11:51America, but also horror at what he perceives, I think quite
- 11:55plausibly, as the economic devastation of the American
- 11:59working class. But I'm talking about civility,
- 12:01or rather the lack of civility in something like dealing with,
- 12:04you know, President Zelensky in the Oval Office.
- 12:07I mean, that was appalling, wasn't it, the way he, you know,
- 12:10behaved towards someone. And I know, you know, JD Vance
- 12:13knows about the military because he served at the military.
- 12:15But here's someone who's basically prepared to give his
- 12:17life for his country who didn't run.
- 12:19The Americans offered him a ride.
- 12:20He didn't take it. And he's, you know, defended his
- 12:23nation from Russian aggression. And here's JD Vance basically,
- 12:28you know, assaulting him in the Oval Office.
- 12:30Verbally, I will simply say that in the six or seven years I've
- 12:35known him, I've never known him lose his temper once.
- 12:38He's personally very equitable. But he did then.
- 12:41And and in that it well, look, we all lose our temper.
- 12:43Very easy to lose once, but. Onto the cameras at the Oval
- 12:46Office. Well, I think it was unwise.
- 12:47Choose your moments. Look, I think it was, you're
- 12:49probably right that it was unwise for a proper and
- 12:54important trilateral conversation or bilateral
- 12:57conversation between the Ukraine, but between Zelensky
- 12:59and and Trump Vance to be conducted in the Oval Office.
- 13:03Now I in front of the cameras and I think the kinds of
- 13:06conversation, the sort of conversation you had there is
- 13:09the kind of conversation that is happening behind closed doors.
- 13:12Was it a setup though? No, absolutely not you.
- 13:15Sure about that. I had no question of the setup.
- 13:17If you look at the whole, the whole thing from start to
- 13:20finish, it was actually very amicable conversation right up
- 13:23to the last two or three minutes.
- 13:24And you could see throughout the conversation that Zelensky was
- 13:27pushing, as you would expect him to.
- 13:29He's pushing for his countries. He is a national conservative
- 13:31too. He's pushing for his nation's
- 13:33interests. Nothing wrong with that.
- 13:35But he went into the conversation, I think he was
- 13:38badly briefed. He was badly advised because
- 13:40what? Did and he didn't have a
- 13:41translator which would have helped him.
- 13:42All sorts of that, all sorts of things he could.
- 13:44Even so, Even so, the, the fact that he's in, he's, he's their
- 13:48guest, he's in their office, he's in the Oval Office and
- 13:51they're rounding on him. Listen, that is just
- 13:53unacceptable, isn't it? I mean, even whether you agree
- 13:56with the Ukraine policy or not, look.
- 13:58He's not just just in the Oval Office, He is in the cockpit of
- 14:01a nation that is, whose generosity and support is, but
- 14:04he's held his own nation. But he.
- 14:06Wasn't being. Rude.
- 14:07Well, look, he really wasn't. And he has said thank you, you
- 14:10know, for America's help aplenty almost every day.
- 14:13Look. Look look, I don't you can very
- 14:17easy to pick up on personal foibles or momentary lapse.
- 14:21This was a key moment there, wasn't it?
- 14:23And your old friend didn't come out of it in the minds of, you
- 14:26know, many people around the world looking any better for it.
- 14:29Was it was a key moment. It was a key moment.
- 14:31What would you tell Vance down the phone if he rang you up and
- 14:33asked you about that? Would you say, JD, you went too
- 14:36far or would you say fantastic? No, I in fact, no, I certainly
- 14:40wouldn't. It was not not my place to tell
- 14:43him how to conduct him. A friend of his.
- 14:45It's, I'm a friend of his, but, and it, it is, it is the duty of
- 14:50friends to be critical where necessary.
- 14:53He's also the vice president of the United States.
- 14:55And I think in that particular context, and we've been talking
- 14:57about, he and I've been talking about Ukraine for the best part
- 14:59of two or three years, and he has been mystified at the lack
- 15:03of a serious debate in the public square all across Europe,
- 15:07including the UK. And about what there has been
- 15:10plenty of debate about. I think for.
- 15:12Ukraine from how we're helping. No, look, I'm glad to say
- 15:15there's been the support for Ukraine and the admiration of
- 15:18Zelensky has been, broadly speaking, pretty, pretty.
- 15:20Unanimous. And you're in favour of that?
- 15:22I'm absolutely in favour of that and I think he's in favour too.
- 15:24What he is in favour of is a peaceful and prosperous Ukraine
- 15:29and he is looking in a very clear eyed way.
- 15:31How do we get Ukraine on the path to reconstruction?
- 15:35How do we stop 2000 Ukrainians being centered in the meat
- 15:38grinder every week? How can we reverse?
- 15:40Which is all very, which is fantastic, you see.
- 15:43How to get there when you've been a president who is bent on
- 15:48accelerating the war and who is? Still who you're talking about.
- 15:51I'm talking about Zelensky. When you've got somebody who.
- 15:53Is trying to accelerate the war. He's trying to win the war.
- 15:55He's trying to precisely. The war that he doesn't start.
- 15:57There's a difference. And nobody and nobody.
- 15:59Will hang on a minute, what do you actually mean?
- 16:01So what I'm trying to say here is that every clear eyed
- 16:04military analysis of the situation in Ukraine recognises
- 16:08that there is no way that Ukraine can defeat Russia, No
- 16:11way at all. But the other question is how
- 16:14does Ukraine get or what's left of Ukraine tragically, how, how
- 16:18do we, how does America exercise it's leverage with Russia as
- 16:22well to get what's, what can survive from, from, from Ukraine
- 16:26back on the path to peace, prosperity and reconstruction?
- 16:29My sense is the perception the White House in on January the
- 16:3220th on inauguration day was that if you're going to get
- 16:37peace talks going between Russia and Ukraine, you're there's
- 16:41going to have to be some kind of optical, optical rebalancing.
- 16:46That is to say the demonizing of Putin.
- 16:49Quite right. He, he, Putin is mad.
- 16:53It is bad, but he's not mad. You've got to start to
- 16:56understand him as a rational, though malevolent actor.
- 17:00On the other hand, I think the view is that Zelensky has been
- 17:04unhelpfully for him and unhelpfully for his nation,
- 17:06cause lionized, indeed. Canonized front page of Vogue.
- 17:11Yeah, there's been a lot. Of But like Donald Trump, he's
- 17:13been on the front page of of of Time magazine.
- 17:16Pretty Man of the year twice. Pretty stalionisation.
- 17:19Pretty yes, that colonisation look.
- 17:21Whatever. Look, I wonder how many spreads
- 17:23we like. Obama But we like, you know, we
- 17:25especially Britain, we like the underdog, absolutely.
- 17:28And we like someone who resists aggression.
- 17:29You're right and I think. And you're taking that away
- 17:32from? Him one of the problems I think
- 17:33we have in Britain, and partly it's a, you know, it's a feature
- 17:38of our history, is that we suffer from bad cases of World
- 17:42War Two brain. That is to say, every serious
- 17:45geopolitical crisis on the continent, it seems can only be
- 17:50refracted through a conflict that ended 80 years ago, which
- 17:53we happen to do very well in. And so Vance's Chamberlain,
- 17:57Zelensky is Churchill, Putin is Hitler, Ukraine is Poland.
- 18:02And I just think that's an incredibly unhelpful way to
- 18:06understand rational action by these nation States and very
- 18:11different personalities, very different dynamics.
- 18:14To be fair to him, on Trump's watch, there were very, very few
- 18:19major, or if not, if any major conflicts.
- 18:22Putin did not, would not, I think very if, if Trump had had
- 18:27won in 2020, it hadn't been Biden.
- 18:29I very much doubt that we'd have seen that that that.
- 18:31Invasion the madman is right. So this guy is powerful.
- 18:34He's unpredictable. Look.
- 18:36I wonder if that that theory still stands there after the,
- 18:38you know, the way that Trump is basically.
- 18:41Look, do we think that Trump. Mollified do we think?
- 18:44That Trump is just is predictable on anything,
- 18:47including the question of a rival strongman undermining his
- 18:52stated goals of achieving peace and prosperity in the Ukraine.
- 18:55No I don't. I think the madman theory has
- 18:57it's has it's merits. Your mate JD Vance, you know
- 19:00he's smart. He may well be the next
- 19:02president. I don't know.
- 19:04But he's also quite mean, isn't he?
- 19:05I mean, the stuff he said in Green and about the Danes was
- 19:07just mean. It was, it was in politic, it
- 19:09was uncivil. This, you know, the stuff that
- 19:11he said to, you know, the Europeans at Munich, that's
- 19:14mean. The way he treated the way he
- 19:16treated Zelensky and the other was.
- 19:18You mean you've been can? You talk to him and say stop
- 19:20being so mean. You've been covering politics.
- 19:22You're not mean. It's politics is.
- 19:25I'm not a politician. I don't have to be mean.
- 19:27I'm not representing the interests of millions of people.
- 19:29I'm not standing. Representing my country, you
- 19:31cannot be politics to pick fights with your friends and
- 19:34allies. The question is to what extent
- 19:37have they been good friends and allies?
- 19:39And I think the remarks in Greenland were, look, has
- 19:42Denmark, has Denmark really been doing everything that it can to
- 19:46take seriously? The Greenlanders, all 57,000 of
- 19:49them, who, by the way, don't want to become America's 51st
- 19:52state in Canada in case. Canada and Vance was very clear
- 19:57that that is a matter for the Greenlanders.
- 19:59He was very clear in that, in that, in that, in those
- 20:02pronouncements of the press conference.
- 20:03So he's not, you know, it's but this, this question of niceness,
- 20:08is he going to cuddle? Is he why isn't he more cuddly?
- 20:11I'll talk about, let me assure you.
- 20:12Nice is the wrong word. Civility, right?
- 20:14So this is so, you know, just to get to the number of it.
- 20:16America, you know, of course it's not been plain sailing.
- 20:19And I know Americans feel that, you know, they've been
- 20:22victimized by others and they've been taken for a ride.
- 20:24And it's not Uncle Sam, it's Uncle Sucker, all that stuff.
- 20:27But America has prevailed for 80 years, not just because of its
- 20:31hard power, but because of its soft power.
- 20:35The fact that it's got a message that people want to buy into,
- 20:38right? Isn't it throwing all that away
- 20:40with the way it's behaving right now?
- 20:42I think actually you've seen certainly in this country a
- 20:44rising tide of anti Americanism, of hostility towards America and
- 20:50American culture and I think soft power and look, I know the
- 20:53Foreign Office loves to talk about.
- 20:54I think it's overrated. Tell that to the Hooties, you
- 20:57know, I mean, have they not heard?
- 20:58We're not talking about. The Hooties.
- 20:59And we're not talking about Hamas.
- 21:00We're talking about the Germans, the French, the Brits, the
- 21:03Belgians. You're putting your
- 21:04fingestyneans, you're putting your finger on something very
- 21:07important. And I think this is a challenge
- 21:09for every nation that becomes an empire, whether it wants to be
- 21:13or not, whether it calls itself an empire or not.
- 21:16The fact is there are two Americas.
- 21:18There's the nation, and there's the global hegemon.
- 21:21There's in, in Vance's words, there's we the people.
- 21:25And America is a proposition in which anybody can sign up.
- 21:29Yeah, but. America won the America won the
- 21:32war against the Soviet Union without firing a single shot
- 21:36right? Because it outspent them on
- 21:38defence? Absolutely.
- 21:39And because America had a message, call it soft power,
- 21:42call it what you like, had a message that the rest of the
- 21:45planet was more beguiled by than the Soviet.
- 21:48And what was that message? That message was freedom over
- 21:51tyranny. Yeah.
- 21:52And part of the part of wait, wait, let me hold on, Let me
- 21:55finish. Part of the power of that Munich
- 21:57speech that Vance gave was that you Europeans, who we Americans
- 22:03look to, who we see as the cradle of the freedoms that we
- 22:06love, are failing to give expression to the stated will of
- 22:11your people. To be free to enjoy free speech.
- 22:15To be able to pray outside an abortion clinic without being
- 22:18arrested. Nonsense.
- 22:19He's trying. You know, this is the
- 22:20administration that's interfering in the German
- 22:23elections. Elon Musk appearing at Afd
- 22:25rallies. Don't talk to me about
- 22:26interference. Listen, Jamie.
- 22:28Vance has dinner with the head of the Afd in the.
- 22:30And why does he do that? And.
- 22:31Why does he do that? But he doesn't talk to the
- 22:33German, no. Why does it?
- 22:34Why and why? Why?
- 22:35Yeah, why you tell me so? So let well, I'll tell you
- 22:37exactly why. There is a sense first of all,
- 22:40that the previous administration, in fact
- 22:42administration all the way up, but particularly Biden
- 22:44administration had been using American power to press and to
- 22:49astroturf organizations, to fund organizations that are plainly
- 22:53contested and ideological in countries all around the world,
- 22:56particularly in Eastern Europe, with particularly more
- 22:59conservative countries like Hungary and Poland.
- 23:01And the US administration said their view is, look, if you care
- 23:06about freedom, if you if you share our founding vision of
- 23:10what makes Europe great and what makes America get great,
- 23:13freedom, individual responsibility, faith, family
- 23:16and so on. And all the things that we
- 23:18fought against the Soviet Union for, all the things that
- 23:21energize, energized us from Second World War all the way up
- 23:25to 1989, you've got to exemplify those values if you're going to
- 23:30defend them. You describe yourself as a
- 23:32national conservative. Why national?
- 23:36Why not just conservative? It's exactly you said that if
- 23:39you're not a national conservative, you're not a
- 23:41conservative. It's a very good, very good
- 23:43question, Matt. I think in many ways the
- 23:47adjective national should be redundant when it comes to
- 23:51stating one's political position in philosophical position in
- 23:55politics as as conservative. I think that all conservatives
- 24:00want to conserve what they love most, and the nation is one of
- 24:05the things that one loves. It's not the most important
- 24:07thing that the conservatives loves.
- 24:09They love family, they love community, they love
- 24:11neighborhood culture and heritage and so on.
- 24:14But the nation is on high on the list of what a conservative
- 24:17wants to conserve. So in a way, you're right to
- 24:21pick me up on that. Why national?
- 24:23I think the answer to that is that that adjective has forced
- 24:26itself to the surface in recent years.
- 24:28And as conservatism itself at the right itself has fractured,
- 24:32probably since Thatcher under the influence of figures like
- 24:35Hayek, economic liberalism, particularly neoliberalism.
- 24:38Thatcher would not have described herself as a National
- 24:40Conservative. No, she well.
- 24:42Said I'm a conservative and I'm very patriotic of.
- 24:45Course, in the 1980s she wouldn't have needed to use I
- 24:47think the adjective because I think the the headwinds of
- 24:52liberalism, particularly globalism and increasingly the
- 24:55rise of empirics, sort of very self confident imperialistic
- 25:00civilisational cultures like Russia and China are as it were
- 25:05undermining national sovereignty, undermining the
- 25:07basic principle that makes it possible for us to use the first
- 25:12person plural when we're talking about our country.
- 25:14That is a very what? Do you mean by that?
- 25:16Well, here's what I mean by it. We, in fact, we use the word we
- 25:20when we're talking about our fellow countrymen, generally
- 25:23speaking, in a way that doesn't seem at all controversial.
- 25:26And now that's very important. For example, if we want high
- 25:31rates of redistributive taxation, you need to, there
- 25:35needs to be that feeling that we're all in it together, that
- 25:38we owe each other duties as fellow citizens, that we will
- 25:43care for strangers because they are are strangers and we have an
- 25:46obligation to them. And I think one of the problems
- 25:49in the last 20 years on trade, on migration, on increasingly
- 25:55supranational bodies that are increasingly disconnected from
- 26:01electorates where there's a rising democratic, a democratic
- 26:05deficit, there's a sense that there is no longer a we.
- 26:09But what we have to say is just not cutting through to the
- 26:12people who are supposed to be implementing what we have to
- 26:14say. But the social contract is
- 26:16fraying. But are you talking about your
- 26:17we? Are we talking about the we that
- 26:19is, you know, middle class and white and Christian?
- 26:22There are lots of different ways aren't?
- 26:24There. Well, look, I mean, one of the
- 26:26things that struck me being a lone Brexiteer in Oxbridge was
- 26:31that as a white middle class Christian Brit, I was actually
- 26:36cutting against the grain of almost everyone around me.
- 26:39And I found myself increasingly wanting to speak up for all the
- 26:44Brexiteers among the staff who were waiting at our hand and
- 26:48foot and the Browns. That's.
- 26:49Brexit, which is 1 particular. Policy.
- 26:51And not about the. Identity National conservatism
- 26:54is born in 2016. It is born with the twin shocks
- 26:59of Brexit and Trump. Something that is relevant to
- 27:02you as someone working at university and that is the
- 27:05decision of the federal government.
- 27:06You know, also your friend JD Vance, who's not criticised it,
- 27:09to cut the funding, the federal funding for Harvard universities
- 27:13and six other elite universities in the United States because
- 27:18they've decided to, you know, to stand against the administration
- 27:21when it comes to certain requirements, restrictions that
- 27:26they wanted to impose on these universities.
- 27:28What do you think of that as an academic?
- 27:30I think the question of public funding of the UK universities
- 27:33is a very often sets up a very different set of policy issues
- 27:36and questions and concerns from the question of U.S.
- 27:38Federal funding of US universities, not least because
- 27:41US universities have enormous amounts of money.
- 27:44I mean, let's face it, Harvard has, is basically a hedge fund
- 27:48with a university attached. It's got $53 billion under
- 27:51management. You know it is not in desperate
- 27:53need. It's not missing there.
- 27:56Of taxpayer subsidy in middle America, especially when if I
- 27:59could just conclude especially when the Supreme Court found two
- 28:03years ago that Harvard for years has been practicing a policy of
- 28:08race based discrimination against Asian Americans in
- 28:11favour of more favoured ethnic minorities and and you know that
- 28:15is something which deeply concerns the government, I think
- 28:18concerns American taxpayers American taxpayers want to see
- 28:21money go to intellectual cultures and institutions that
- 28:25pursue freedom of inquiry. That model balanced reasonable
- 28:30disagreement about issues that Americans care about The trouble
- 28:33is as I as I know from having I just got back from Berkeley in
- 28:37the United States I actually had a wonderful time and Berkeley's
- 28:39making great great strides on this front.
- 28:41But many of the Ivy League universities are simply not
- 28:44reflecting the very real differences that are tearing
- 28:47America apart. And one of the primary public
- 28:50functions of university, in my view, is to inform an electorate
- 28:53and to model good disagreement on issues that reasonable
- 28:58Americans, reasonable citizens, disagree violently about,
- 29:01especially in a polarised culture.
- 29:02Right, so all. That the US can do effectively
- 29:06is say, look, we expect federal subsidy from American taxpayers
- 29:11to be spent in a way that reflects the public good and
- 29:14does not privilege an ideologically captured client
- 29:18class of American. Academic, but this is this is
- 29:20about, you said it yourself, it's about the freedom to learn,
- 29:23which is also the freedom to research.
- 29:25These institutions would say that even though they have huge
- 29:27amounts of money from the private sector, the kind of
- 29:30money they need in order to do the kind of research that has
- 29:33made American University is great, that has made America
- 29:36great, you know, into the sciences, into medicine, that
- 29:40is, that relies on federal funding.
- 29:42And when that federal funding is cut because they refuse to do
- 29:46certain things that the government asks them to do, you
- 29:49know, that's bad news for America at the end of the day,
- 29:51isn't it? I think these are very blunt
- 29:54tools, but they are maybe the only tools available to an
- 29:57administration that wants to restore American universities to
- 30:02where they were. And I haven't seen any argument
- 30:05from the left or right. What do you mean to where they
- 30:07were? What do you mean by that?
- 30:08Well. To where?
- 30:09To where? American American universities
- 30:11were at their very peak in the late 20th century.
- 30:14They were great engines of research.
- 30:16That's still great engines of research.
- 30:17If I were an American, I would want to see universities
- 30:21flourish, and I wouldn't in particular would want to see
- 30:23universities reflect to the very real debates that are happening
- 30:27off Harvard Square in Main Street America.
- 30:30And as we know, American politics is getting more and
- 30:33more polarized on a whole range of issues.
- 30:35And nobody doubts that. Trump vans.
- 30:38They were elected unambiguously back in November.
- 30:41Thank goodness. That was no doubt at all.
- 30:44Now, is it the case that every single policy action perfectly
- 30:48reflects every campaign promise? No.
- 30:51But my goodness, what politician can claim that they're able to
- 30:54do that? I think that real moral scandal
- 30:56would have been if they'd spent months and months, years and
- 30:59years and saying, we're saying we're going to bring in tariffs,
- 31:02we're going to try and sort out Ukraine.
- 31:03We're going to try and get a. And then do nothing.
- 31:05And then do absolutely nothing. That would have been a
- 31:07Democratic. Outbreak, but Donald.
- 31:08Authoritarian is saying we're simply exercising our executive.
- 31:11Authority. You can you can implement the
- 31:12will of our election. But you can live up to those
- 31:14promises, but do it in the right way and do the more nuanced way.
- 31:17You want them to be more cuddly? I can't make Donald Trump be
- 31:20more cuddly. Doctor James, Always of the
- 31:23philosophy of religion at Cambridge University, thanks
- 31:26very much for letting us talk to you in your home.
- 31:28That's it from the the special edition of the Forecast.
- 31:31Hope you enjoyed it.