Latest / Wired To Hunt Podcast / Ep. 727: Foundations - How Many Deer Are There, Really?
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Welcome to the Wired to Hunt Foundations podcast, your guide
- 0:05Speaker 1: to the fundamentals of better deer hunting, presented by first Light,
- 0:09Speaker 1: creating proven versatile hunting apparel for the stand, saddle or blind.
- 0:14Speaker 1: First Light, Go Farther, Stay Longer, and now your host
- 0:19Speaker 1: Tony Peterson.
- 0:20Speaker 2: Hey everyone, welcome to the Wire to Hunt Foundation's podcast,
- 0:23Speaker 2: which is brought to you by First Light. I'm your host,
- 0:24Speaker 2: Tony Peterson, and this episode is all about deer densities.
- 0:40Speaker 2: Something occurred to me recently while recording an episode of
- 0:43Speaker 2: Wired to Hunt with the trout bum himself. As Mark
- 0:46Speaker 2: told the story of hitting his target buck this year,
- 0:48Speaker 2: I realized that he sees more dear on one Michigan
- 0:51Speaker 2: sit than I see in an entire season in northern Wisconsin.
- 0:55Speaker 2: His stories go something like, at first I saw a buck,
- 0:58Speaker 2: and then four doughs, and then a buck in another buck,
- 1:01Speaker 2: and then six more bucks plus some doze, while my
- 1:04Speaker 2: stories go well, I saw one squirrel and then probably
- 1:08Speaker 2: the same squirrel, and then two sits later, the loneliest
- 1:11Speaker 2: dough in all the land briefly emerged from the swamp
- 1:13Speaker 2: Shrek style to take a look around Mark's very easy,
- 1:18Speaker 2: privileged hunting, when contrasted with my extremely difficult workingman's hunting,
- 1:24Speaker 2: made me realize we don't talk about deer densities enough,
- 1:28Speaker 2: but they are so important to strategy, and this is
- 1:31Speaker 2: what I'm going to talk about right now and next week.
- 1:33Speaker 2: So buckle up. Did you know that your vision runs
- 1:42Speaker 2: one hundred milliseconds behind what's actually happening in the world.
- 1:47Speaker 2: It doesn't take much time for light to bounce off
- 1:49Speaker 2: an object so you can see it, and then your
- 1:52Speaker 2: eye has to send a signal to your brain so
- 1:54Speaker 2: it can decide what it's looking at. But it does
- 1:56Speaker 2: take a little bit of time. Do you remember that
- 1:59Speaker 2: short lived fad about the dress that was either gold
- 2:02Speaker 2: or blue? On the internet, like in twenty fifteen. Randomly
- 2:06Speaker 2: something like that pops up and it divides people because
- 2:08Speaker 2: some see one color, some see a different color. But
- 2:11Speaker 2: how can that be? How can address that is blue
- 2:15Speaker 2: appear gold to us or vice versa, or let's take
- 2:18Speaker 2: it a step further. Neuroscientists have studied how much our
- 2:21Speaker 2: brains fill in the blanks with what we perceive to
- 2:24Speaker 2: be reality, and they've studied how we as individuals have
- 2:28Speaker 2: unconscious bias, which means we are totally unaware of it.
- 2:32Speaker 2: They've done studies with people who were tasked with watching
- 2:35Speaker 2: videos of civilians interacting with law enforcement, where they were
- 2:39Speaker 2: instructed to either focus on the civilian or the police
- 2:42Speaker 2: officer depending on their backgrounds and interactions with law enforcement.
- 2:46Speaker 2: The perceptions of the interactions on video varied wildly, yet
- 2:51Speaker 2: they all watched the same video. Our brains work hard
- 2:55Speaker 2: to mold and shape reality to fit our prior experiences.
- 3:00Speaker 2: We make up our minds to fit the reality that
- 3:03Speaker 2: we are most comfortable with. Take chronic wasting disease CWD
- 3:08Speaker 2: for example. If you want something that hits close to
- 3:11Speaker 2: home with a lot of us anyway, this is a
- 3:13Speaker 2: good topic. There are a lot of people who have
- 3:16Speaker 2: their minds made up with CWD, but most of the
- 3:20Speaker 2: staunch opinions aren't really rooted in reality because there's a
- 3:24Speaker 2: lot we don't know, a lot that just isn't backed
- 3:27Speaker 2: up by data on both sides. So we draw our
- 3:29Speaker 2: own lines in the sand, fill in the blanks. I'd
- 3:33Speaker 2: bet you'd be more willing to take the thread of
- 3:35Speaker 2: CWD more seriously if you had had positive interactions with
- 3:40Speaker 2: Game and Fish employees, or had a generally positive view
- 3:45Speaker 2: of the agency. Now, if you have a negative view
- 3:48Speaker 2: for whatever reason, I bet there's generally more of a
- 3:50Speaker 2: chance that you think that it's just bullshit built in
- 3:53Speaker 2: around CWD. There are two different perceptions of reality around
- 3:58Speaker 2: this issue, and we really don't know yet which one
- 4:01Speaker 2: is right. What is far more likely is that the
- 4:04Speaker 2: truth is going to be some type of hybrid reality
- 4:07Speaker 2: between the two. Or take another hot topic, wolves. I
- 4:11Speaker 2: had a conversation with a fellow at the gym earlier
- 4:13Speaker 2: this year who couldn't blame our Minnesota DNR enough for
- 4:16Speaker 2: the prevalence of wolves and how disastrous they have been
- 4:19Speaker 2: to the Northern Minnesota deer heerd. He also didn't understand
- 4:23Speaker 2: anything about the Endangered Species Act, or federal activist judges
- 4:28Speaker 2: working out at Washington, DC, or the sheer complexity of
- 4:32Speaker 2: the legal system as it transcends federal and state levels
- 4:36Speaker 2: and involves a species like wolves. His thought was that
- 4:41Speaker 2: the DNR wanted wolves to replace hunters, and that was that. Now.
- 4:45Speaker 2: I don't know if the agency that relies heavily on
- 4:47Speaker 2: the license sales from deer hunters would cut its own
- 4:49Speaker 2: throat by conspiring to proliferate an apex predator across the land,
- 4:54Speaker 2: a predator I'm pretty confident has never bought a hunting
- 4:56Speaker 2: license ever. A part of the reason these issues suck
- 5:01Speaker 2: to think about and deal with is because even though
- 5:03Speaker 2: our tendency is to see them in black and white
- 5:06Speaker 2: because that's easy, they are far from simple issues. Society
- 5:11Speaker 2: is plagued by complex issues. If you talk to young
- 5:14Speaker 2: folks these days, wealth inequality is a big one. Their
- 5:19Speaker 2: take on it is quite a bit different from how
- 5:22Speaker 2: many in my parents' boomer generation feel about it. Things
- 5:26Speaker 2: get even weirder when we see a couple of the biggest,
- 5:29Speaker 2: most outspoken billionaires working on my favorite subject, which is
- 5:33Speaker 2: going into space, or they see Bill Gates on TV
- 5:37Speaker 2: trying to guess the price of some simple grocery and
- 5:39Speaker 2: home goods item. Did you know that Bill Gates did
- 5:43Speaker 2: this one time on I think it was The Ellen
- 5:45Speaker 2: DeGeneres Show, and he thought a bag of Totino's pizza
- 5:50Speaker 2: rolls cost twenty two dollars. Let that sink in and
- 5:55Speaker 2: tell me if he isn't experiencing a different reality from you.
- 6:00Speaker 2: Where the perception of reality gets real weird. We let
- 6:03Speaker 2: what others believe about life bleed into our world and
- 6:08Speaker 2: sometimes shape how we proceed with our actions. This happens
- 6:12Speaker 2: in hunting all the time. Trust me, if you think
- 6:17Speaker 2: there isn't a difference and the opportunities presented to you
- 6:21Speaker 2: versus I don't know some of the hunting industry people,
- 6:24Speaker 2: you're off your rocker there, Betty Crocker from media hunts
- 6:27Speaker 2: and outfitters, trading hunts for exposure to people who just
- 6:30Speaker 2: have badass places to hunt that want to associate with
- 6:33Speaker 2: big names. The world is kind of like Candyland for
- 6:38Speaker 2: a lot of hunting industry folks. Now, naturally, some of
- 6:41Speaker 2: them do things the hard way. Some of them also
- 6:44Speaker 2: built their own empires and they hunt their own ground,
- 6:46Speaker 2: which is pretty cool, But the reality there is still
- 6:50Speaker 2: not something you're going to experience. Let me try to
- 6:53Speaker 2: explain this in a way that's something like we should
- 6:55Speaker 2: all be able to relate to. We are all aware
- 6:59Speaker 2: of the concept of deer density. In some places, the
- 7:03Speaker 2: general deer density might be forty or sixty or more
- 7:07Speaker 2: dear per square mile. In other places that might be
- 7:12Speaker 2: closer to ten or fewer deer. You might hunt the
- 7:15Speaker 2: up of Michigan and see a handful of deer all
- 7:18Speaker 2: season in southern Michigan, you might average a dozen or
- 7:21Speaker 2: more sightings per sit. You might watch the big names
- 7:26Speaker 2: on the outdoor channel passing up one forties left and
- 7:28Speaker 2: right to wait for a giant. They can do this
- 7:32Speaker 2: because not only do they have an extremely high deer
- 7:34Speaker 2: density to work with, that deer density is flush with
- 7:38Speaker 2: prime age bucks. There are properties in Iowa that might
- 7:42Speaker 2: have more mature bucks on them than some counties have
- 7:45Speaker 2: in other parts of the country. Okay, that might be
- 7:48Speaker 2: a slight exaggeration, but I bet it's somewhat true. Pretty close. Now,
- 7:53Speaker 2: imagine if every TV host had to tell you how
- 7:55Speaker 2: many deer they saw on every set they showed, or
- 7:58Speaker 2: you know, every Instagram post about a day buck. Would
- 8:01Speaker 2: you still believe some of those folks were the best
- 8:03Speaker 2: hunters alive? If you heard them say once again that
- 8:06Speaker 2: they saw seventy six deer in their food plot on
- 8:09Speaker 2: some random night in October, how hard would you think
- 8:12Speaker 2: it would be to hold out for one hundred and
- 8:14Speaker 2: eighty inch deer If you knew that you could at
- 8:17Speaker 2: any given point in the season kill one hundred and
- 8:20Speaker 2: fifty or one hundred and sixty inch or in a
- 8:22Speaker 2: few days time. Their reality is different from yours, which
- 8:26Speaker 2: I know is obvious, but I don't think some people
- 8:29Speaker 2: understand the gap. Part of this is because we are
- 8:32Speaker 2: hardwired to make things sound more difficult, and I do
- 8:35Speaker 2: this too. Take the buck I shot a couple weeks
- 8:39Speaker 2: ago in Wisconsin. The hunting there is tougher for me
- 8:42Speaker 2: than anywhere else I hunt. That's just due to the
- 8:45Speaker 2: deer density being really low. Now you know, the predator
- 8:48Speaker 2: one hundred density is high too, which doesn't help, but
- 8:51Speaker 2: that just contributes to the deer density. It's just a
- 8:54Speaker 2: different beast than a lot of places, but it's also
- 8:57Speaker 2: very similar to a lot of places, such as the
- 8:59Speaker 2: nature the big Woods. Now, on that hunt, I hunted
- 9:02Speaker 2: all day for three days, and I saw a do
- 9:06Speaker 2: Then a buck that looked like someone took the body
- 9:08Speaker 2: of a horse and married it to the rack of
- 9:10Speaker 2: a coups deer came running in and stiffed my decoy.
- 9:13Speaker 2: I killed him, and it was wonderful. I also want
- 9:17Speaker 2: you and everyone else who listens to know how hard
- 9:20Speaker 2: it is to hunt over there, because that makes me
- 9:22Speaker 2: look better. The truth is it's it is a difficult
- 9:26Speaker 2: place to hunt, but I also love it. I don't
- 9:29Speaker 2: not enjoy hunting over there, even if I know I'm
- 9:31Speaker 2: only going to see very few deer and am very
- 9:35Speaker 2: unlikely to see a big one. It just is what
- 9:37Speaker 2: it is. There really isn't a reason to try to
- 9:39Speaker 2: make it sound worse than it is besides ego, and
- 9:43Speaker 2: we have our biases and that colors our perception of reality.
- 9:47Speaker 2: But reality isn't really up for negotiation. It just is
- 9:51Speaker 2: what it is. This is the case with deer densities,
- 9:54Speaker 2: and I don't think we fully understand how much this
- 9:56Speaker 2: affects our season. Just think about the com confidence you'd
- 10:00Speaker 2: have if you knew when you went hunting that you'd
- 10:03Speaker 2: always see deer, and a lot of them. And when
- 10:06Speaker 2: you see a lot of deer, there are almost always
- 10:10Speaker 2: a few good bucks mixed in at some point. Would
- 10:13Speaker 2: that change your view on getting up at o dark
- 10:16Speaker 2: thirty again? I know it does for me. It's a
- 10:19Speaker 2: hell of a lot easier to go hunting and stay
- 10:20Speaker 2: in the game when you know it's going to be
- 10:22Speaker 2: a freaking blast. Or look at it this way. Over
- 10:26Speaker 2: in Wisconsin, my daughters and eye hunted parts of twenty
- 10:28Speaker 2: days before we saw a single dough Literally we saw
- 10:32Speaker 2: a few bucks, but we averaged one deer sighting per weekend.
- 10:36Speaker 2: The last time I drew in Iowa Tag, I hunted
- 10:38Speaker 2: public land and saw twenty six deer on my first
- 10:41Speaker 2: full day of hunting. In the beginning of October, I
- 10:44Speaker 2: saw fourteen deer on my first morning hunt there, including
- 10:47Speaker 2: six bucks ranging from one hundred to one hundred and
- 10:49Speaker 2: seventy inches. In which situation would you be able to
- 10:53Speaker 2: rally and keep getting up and ready to go When
- 10:57Speaker 2: we believe we are going to have fun. It's so
- 10:59Speaker 2: much easier to go than when we believe you're not
- 11:01Speaker 2: going to see anything. This is reflected in the harvest
- 11:05Speaker 2: data that is coming out from some of the general
- 11:07Speaker 2: firearm seasons that just wrapped up in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
- 11:11Speaker 2: The numbers are low compared to last season. The obvious
- 11:14Speaker 2: culprit is the warmer than average weather we had, but
- 11:18Speaker 2: the less obvious culprit is that the perception of hunting
- 11:21Speaker 2: in warm weather does bad things to hunters. It convinces
- 11:25Speaker 2: them to put in less effort, which is the exact
- 11:27Speaker 2: opposite way to approach a difficult hunt. Hunters believe the
- 11:31Speaker 2: reality of their hunt will be low deer movement because
- 11:35Speaker 2: of the weather. They then hunt with less enthusiasm, and
- 11:40Speaker 2: suddenly we're in like a manifest destiny situation. All right,
- 11:44Speaker 2: So where am I going with this? Well? A lot
- 11:47Speaker 2: of directions actually, But for right now, I want you
- 11:49Speaker 2: to be honest about the deer density and the properties
- 11:51Speaker 2: you hunt. I don't care if you live in Michigan
- 11:53Speaker 2: or Louisiana wherever, and you think you have the hardest
- 11:55Speaker 2: hunting ever, I want you to think about the properties
- 11:58Speaker 2: you hunt. Don't break it down by stay or region
- 12:02Speaker 2: or something else that can color your bias. Go to
- 12:05Speaker 2: the individual properties. How many deer live there or use
- 12:09Speaker 2: them somewhat consistently. This is the basis for a lot
- 12:13Speaker 2: of the decisions you'll make throughout the season, so it's
- 12:16Speaker 2: important to be honest. Trail cameras and in person observations
- 12:20Speaker 2: are huge for this because they show us two things,
- 12:24Speaker 2: the deer we can confidently say live on or around
- 12:27Speaker 2: our properties, and the deer that might use them somewhat
- 12:30Speaker 2: but aren't regulars. Of course, this doesn't take into account
- 12:34Speaker 2: shifting home ranges or what factors can change deer densities.
- 12:37Speaker 2: But I'm not going to get into that this week.
- 12:39Speaker 2: That's topic for a podcast that's coming up. For now,
- 12:43Speaker 2: just try to be honest about how many deer you
- 12:45Speaker 2: really have access to. If you're in a low deer
- 12:47Speaker 2: density world, then you have to be very careful with
- 12:50Speaker 2: all of the deer you might encounter. If you hunt
- 12:53Speaker 2: where the deer are thickest thieves, your concerns are different.
- 12:57Speaker 2: Both circumstances come with unique challenge, but you can't get
- 13:01Speaker 2: into those until you think about what you have to
- 13:03Speaker 2: work with overall, and you have to be willing to
- 13:06Speaker 2: be wrong. This past winter looked like it was a
- 13:09Speaker 2: really rough one on the deer in my world, at
- 13:13Speaker 2: least some of the places I hunt. We had wet,
- 13:16Speaker 2: heavy snow at some really inopportune times, and I thought
- 13:19Speaker 2: going into spring that the northern deer herds were going
- 13:22Speaker 2: to be decimated. A random conversation with a forester convinced
- 13:26Speaker 2: me that I was probably wrong. He said that the
- 13:28Speaker 2: amount of treetops that suddenly became accessible to the deer
- 13:31Speaker 2: helped the herd out a lot, which makes sense, and
- 13:35Speaker 2: my springtime observation seems to show that I had overestimated
- 13:38Speaker 2: the severity of the winter kill. But By August, I
- 13:42Speaker 2: was less sure I won property I own. I had
- 13:45Speaker 2: a handful of little bucks, two dos, and one decent
- 13:48Speaker 2: deer on camera. I saw several of those deer in
- 13:51Speaker 2: person as well. When I was scouting. I never got
- 13:54Speaker 2: a picture of a dough with a fawn all summer
- 13:58Speaker 2: or fall, nor did I see I didn't have a
- 14:01Speaker 2: bunch of new deer show up. And the more I
- 14:03Speaker 2: scouted other public properties in that area and ran cameras
- 14:07Speaker 2: on a few of the private areas I hunt, I
- 14:10Speaker 2: realized that I couldn't find a fawn to save my life,
- 14:14Speaker 2: and I could barely find a dough. My reality there
- 14:17Speaker 2: shifted multiple times, and it ended up forcing me to
- 14:21Speaker 2: hunt my highest odd spots for all days sins while
- 14:24Speaker 2: lowering my standards to whatever buck might come in. I
- 14:28Speaker 2: also left my dough tags at home because there was
- 14:30Speaker 2: no reason for me to kill a few baby makers
- 14:33Speaker 2: when there just weren't that many around. So I started
- 14:37Speaker 2: out in the preseason with a plan based around a
- 14:40Speaker 2: certain deer density that I expected to have to work with,
- 14:43Speaker 2: but by opening day I had to alter that strategy,
- 14:46Speaker 2: and by the rut, my entire perception of the hunt
- 14:50Speaker 2: and how I had to go about. It had changed
- 14:52Speaker 2: completely and this was all tied to the amount of
- 14:55Speaker 2: deer that were available to me, which wasn't very many.
- 14:59Speaker 2: So what does this have to do with your hunting everything?
- 15:03Speaker 2: Should you be rattling NonStop during the run if you
- 15:06Speaker 2: have one mature buck per section to work with and
- 15:09Speaker 2: totally horrible buck to dough ratio? Probably not, despite the
- 15:14Speaker 2: fact that a lot of people who have better places
- 15:16Speaker 2: to hunt will swear by that tactic. Or should you
- 15:21Speaker 2: kam a cozi your way right into a prime betting
- 15:23Speaker 2: area with questionable wind to shoot a big one when
- 15:26Speaker 2: you know that you have a high deer density and
- 15:28Speaker 2: you'll be spooking non target deer all day long with
- 15:31Speaker 2: that move. Or think about in season scouting. If you
- 15:35Speaker 2: hunt where the winners are mild and the ag is plentiful,
- 15:38Speaker 2: you know there's deer everywhere. How much damage versus benefit
- 15:42Speaker 2: will you get from in season scouting every acre to
- 15:45Speaker 2: find the exact spot to kill a big one. Now
- 15:48Speaker 2: take that same scenario and put it in a low
- 15:51Speaker 2: density woods and it's kind of the only game in
- 15:53Speaker 2: town to get around any deer. Pay attention because this
- 15:57Speaker 2: is important. What is a good dial or strategy for
- 16:01Speaker 2: someone else might be a total disaster for you. This
- 16:05Speaker 2: will hinge on a lot of things like personal skill
- 16:09Speaker 2: level and a real deep understanding of the strategy, But
- 16:13Speaker 2: the risk reward ratio of these things is heavily dependent
- 16:16Speaker 2: on the quantity and quality of deer you have to
- 16:18Speaker 2: work with. I'll frame this up another way. Do you
- 16:22Speaker 2: know who the most annoying elk hunter in the West is?
- 16:26Speaker 2: It's the guy who hunts an over the counter unit
- 16:28Speaker 2: on public land and thinks that the only thing he
- 16:31Speaker 2: has to do is walk ridgelines of bugling his head
- 16:34Speaker 2: off all day long. His idea is that the more
- 16:38Speaker 2: ground he covers, the more likely he is to run
- 16:41Speaker 2: across a bowl that will respond accordingly. The problem is
- 16:45Speaker 2: that the bulls that live in those places have had
- 16:47Speaker 2: so many negative interactions after checking out a strange bugle,
- 16:51Speaker 2: the odds of a bull giving his location in response,
- 16:54Speaker 2: or better yet, coming in while bugling are low. In
- 16:59Speaker 2: a place where a high density and limited pressure this
- 17:02Speaker 2: move will net you response is like crazy. It won't
- 17:06Speaker 2: spook elk probably and will instead convince enough of them
- 17:10Speaker 2: to come in or bugle back that it seems like
- 17:13Speaker 2: the best strategy ever, and it is if you're on
- 17:17Speaker 2: the Deseret Ranch in Utah and you have a twenty
- 17:19Speaker 2: thousand dollars ELK tag in your pocket. But if you're
- 17:21Speaker 2: in and over the counter unit in Colorado, it's almost
- 17:24Speaker 2: guaranteed to fail every time, and worse work against you.
- 17:30Speaker 2: You might be thinking that this has more to do
- 17:32Speaker 2: with pressure than game density, and you're right, sort of.
- 17:36Speaker 2: With fewer animals, the mistakes are compounded because the opportunities
- 17:39Speaker 2: are lessened with each screw up. The margin for error
- 17:43Speaker 2: just isn't in your favor. So think about the density
- 17:46Speaker 2: you're working with on your home ground or the place
- 17:50Speaker 2: you love to travel, to be honest about it, and
- 17:53Speaker 2: think about how you'll take an even better census next year.
- 17:56Speaker 2: And then come back next week because I'm going to
- 17:58Speaker 2: talk about all all kinds of strategies for hunting low
- 18:02Speaker 2: deer densities, and then the week after I'll probably touch
- 18:05Speaker 2: on that high deer density thing. But should listen in
- 18:08Speaker 2: because there's a lot to consider just when you're working
- 18:12Speaker 2: around the amount of deer that might be available to you.
- 18:17Speaker 2: That's it for this week. I'm Tony Peterson. This has
- 18:19Speaker 2: been the wired to Hunt Foundations podcast, which is brought
- 18:21Speaker 2: to you by first Light. As always, thank you so
- 18:24Speaker 2: much for your support, for listening, for reading the articles.
- 18:28Speaker 2: For whatever you're doing in this media world, we really
- 18:32Speaker 2: really appreciate it. If you want more content, you know
- 18:34Speaker 2: where to go, the medeater dot com. You can check
- 18:38Speaker 2: out all kinds of stuff there. Maybe pick up the
- 18:40Speaker 2: new board game of Meat Eater Trivia if you want
- 18:43Speaker 2: to play that over the holidays or something. Lots of
- 18:46Speaker 2: good stuff there at the medeater dot com.