Latest / Best of the NFL Podcast Network / Man vs Model Week 2 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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Man vs Model Week 2 Picks with Cynthia Frelund · Best of the NFL Podcast Network

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where it's always raining.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: I'm Greg Rosenthal here in Studio.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Five, Stage five, I don't know what you call it
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  Speaker 1: at NFL Network, and so lucky today to be joined
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: by Cynthia Freeland for our weekly man versus Machine, Man
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: versus Model, the rain Maker rains Oh of the week, Adam,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: I like all of it. Let's review Cynthia. Last week.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: If you were listening, we were both very effective, two
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: and one each of us. Okay, I got the Bucks
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: and the Steelers right, barely.
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  Speaker 2: Lost on the bills by like half a point.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: You got the Saints and your Lions right, and you
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: lost on your jets. And so what we do every
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: week on this show we pick our three favorite picks
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  Speaker 1: of the week.
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  Speaker 2: Why don't we start with you this week?
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  Speaker 3: To feel a little luckier? I have a question, Yes,
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: this is a really important one. Yes. Are we allowed
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: to do this for totals? Because I think there's one mispriced.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, you can do anything you want, Cynthia. The point
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  Speaker 1: is I'm rooting for you. I want us both to
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  Speaker 1: have good records. I want to just have a better
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  Speaker 1: record than you. Open right now we're tied, So yes,
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  Speaker 1: we're tied to and one with that good start, Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: you can do totals.
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  Speaker 3: Okay, So I'm looking at this Pittsburgh game and I
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: understand it doesn't seem like there's gonna be a lot
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  Speaker 3: of points scored. But any way you slice it, for me,
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  Speaker 3: it's going to be more than thirty six and a half.
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  Speaker 3: In fact, in the model, in the machine, if you will,
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: the number is more than thirty seven points in like
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  Speaker 3: something like fifty six percent of simulations. I'm a conservative modeler.
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  Speaker 3: That is a high number for me. So I know
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  Speaker 3: it doesn't seem like a situation where you'd be like, hey,
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: Broncos Steelers point fest. But you don't need it to
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  Speaker 3: be that much in order to hit that number.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Yes, I actually picked eighteen to twelve in that game,
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  Speaker 1: and in my head that was all field goals six
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  Speaker 1: for the Steelers for the Broncos.
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: There could easily be a defensive touch.
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  Speaker 2: You could throw that in. But that makes sense.
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  Speaker 3: Why would you will root against fun?
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  Speaker 1: I'm not rooty against it. That's just what I see.
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  Speaker 1: I'm on the Steelers this year. I had them as
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  Speaker 1: an under, but that is not one of my three picks.
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  Speaker 1: But I do think I do think they're gonna win.
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  Speaker 1: No lots of point. It is not lots of point.
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  Speaker 1: Thirty six and a half over that your first pick
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  Speaker 1: over thirty six and a half in Steelers Falcons.
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  Speaker 2: I like that.
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to go Titans plus four to start. If
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: I'm going to pick them straight up, which I am doing.
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  Speaker 1: We did that on our on our show on NFL Network,
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  Speaker 1: which people should check out that's up on Sunday mornings
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: before game day morning.
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  Speaker 2: I might as well take them plus four.
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  Speaker 1: It's as if one never happened here at least, I
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: think that's what this number looks like to me what
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I saw from week one in the Titans, and tell
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  Speaker 1: me if you disagree. Cynthia was a reborn running game.
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  Speaker 1: The two Callahans, like they say, they show up and
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  Speaker 1: suddenly there's cohesion. The offensive line looks good run blocking,
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  Speaker 1: Tony Pollard has a ton of room and he's got
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  Speaker 1: a ton of juice. And I also saw a soft
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  Speaker 1: as hell Jets run defense. So at the very least,
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  Speaker 1: I think they keep it within four, and they keep
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  Speaker 1: a low score, and it's a lot of ground game.
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  Speaker 1: With Taji Spears also in the mix. I think they
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: can just win it straight up. So if you're into
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: like going with the money line, that would be fun too.
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  Speaker 2: But for the sake of this show.
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  Speaker 3: Titans plus four Okay, well, I think there's a completely
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: mispriced line in Arizona. The Rams are not favored, The
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  Speaker 3: Rams are underdogs. That makes absolutely zero sense to me.
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  Speaker 3: There is no way. And so if I believe they're
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  Speaker 3: going to win straight up, why would I not believe
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  Speaker 3: that they're gonna win If you're gonna give me an
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  Speaker 3: extra point?
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  Speaker 2: Okay, why not? Right?
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  Speaker 3: So I think that the Rams. Look, I understand that
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: there are a lot of question marks in terms of injuries.
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  Speaker 3: The O line has just been pretty decimated, But tell
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  Speaker 3: me who on that Cardinals team is going to get
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  Speaker 3: after a guy like Matthew Stafford who can disproportionately handle pressure,
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  Speaker 3: like to the point where you know, Matthew I watched
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  Speaker 3: him in Detroid. He didn't have an O line there either.
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  Speaker 3: They were standing there. So you know, ultimately, I think
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  Speaker 3: it's this is something he's been like a finely tuned
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  Speaker 3: machine like me, like I'm a finally whatever to be
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  Speaker 3: able to handle this kind of thing, and they can
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  Speaker 3: run with Karen Williams. They always run against this Cardinals team.
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  Speaker 3: Go look at that number and Cooper Cup He's going
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  Speaker 3: to catch like a billion passes.
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  Speaker 2: I love that I picked them as well. They're not
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  Speaker 2: They're not one of my.
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  Speaker 3: Picks, but yet they're not one of your picks.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, they're on my long list, but.
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  Speaker 3: I find it because that means I get to Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: I like that we don't have all the same picks.
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  Speaker 1: They're dangerous. Oh wait, they are one of my three picks.
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to go off.
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  Speaker 2: I totally forgot.
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  Speaker 3: I like it, get people more.
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  Speaker 1: But I get like the arguments against them because their defense,
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  Speaker 1: if they have a weakness, it's against the ground game.
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  Speaker 1: It's Kyler Murray, it's James Connor, it's Trey Bentson.
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  Speaker 2: Actually got in the mix.
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  Speaker 1: But it matters to me that last year the two
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  Speaker 1: games were not competitive at all. The Rams won these
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  Speaker 1: two by forty. So it's a division matchup where there's
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  Speaker 1: some familiarity there.
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  Speaker 2: I take it back.
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  Speaker 1: I actually will take the Rams as as one of
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: my picks. I'm going to go for my third pick.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Eagles minus six and a half. Can Kirk Cousins play
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  Speaker 1: football still? Like at a high level.
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  Speaker 2: Can can he move well?
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  Speaker 3: Do you really want to ask that question against the
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia defense, because that's not even just like any old defense.
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  Speaker 3: That's a heck of a tough defense to make him
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  Speaker 3: like he didn't look I mean, and the Steelers is
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  Speaker 3: an awesome defense as well, but like it didn't. It
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  Speaker 3: was very different the pistol. What was that no play
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  Speaker 3: action was? I'm not sure what was going on there,
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  Speaker 3: Maybe totally different game plan.
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  Speaker 1: It's crazy to me that it would actually make sense
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  Speaker 1: to play Michael Pennix. I think early this season and
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: wait till Kirk is healthy, because he just showed he
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: wasn't healthy. So when we're doing these picks, I'm mostly
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: looking at the number kind of like you and just
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: seeing if it's like a little bit off. But I
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  Speaker 1: do think early in the season, before we really know
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  Speaker 1: good who's bad, you can get some funky numbers.
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  Speaker 2: And this is actually a high number.
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  Speaker 1: And yet I'm just trusting my eyes and saying you
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  Speaker 1: can't overreact to what happened with Kirk Cousins in Week one,
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  Speaker 1: and that they're going to have to show me that
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  Speaker 1: there have an offense and a quarterback that's actually functional.
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  Speaker 1: At this point, I don't really believe it, and I
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  Speaker 1: don't think their defense is very good either, So give
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  Speaker 1: me Eagles minus six.
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  Speaker 3: And a half. Okay, So I'm staying with that same
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  Speaker 3: number six and a half, and I'm going with a
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  Speaker 3: little bit of spice here because I think New Orleans
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: keeps it closer than people expect. So I think New
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  Speaker 3: Orleans plus six and a half ways not straight. I
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  Speaker 3: don't have New Orleans winning straight up. I do think
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: that the Cowboys are the winner of this matchup, but
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  Speaker 3: I think six and a half is too high. I
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: know that the Cowboys are playing at home, so that
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  Speaker 3: numbers influenced by that. I did see what happened with
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: both sides. However, we didn't really learn anything about a
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: Mike Zimmer defense because they held the Browns to fifty
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  Speaker 3: four total yards in the first half, so kind of
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  Speaker 3: the second half data totally skewed. And then on the
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  Speaker 3: same side, we didn't really learn anything about the Saints
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  Speaker 3: offense either, because they were.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, come on, they put up forty seven.
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  Speaker 3: But that's my point, we didn't We don't know what
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  Speaker 3: they're going to do when they're under duress, because they're
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  Speaker 3: going to be under three pressures. That's all of the
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  Speaker 3: number of pressures that Derek Carr faced. Micah Parsons is
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  Speaker 3: good for three pressures on his own, let alone. So
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  Speaker 3: my point is is we saw that it's a good
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  Speaker 3: offense when the defense was giving them a lot of
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  Speaker 3: favorable looks, but we don't know what's happened. It's a remade.
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  Speaker 3: O see a remade situation here, So we don't I'm
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  Speaker 3: not saying they're not good. I'm saying we just don't
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  Speaker 3: know who they are yet. We don't know.
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  Speaker 2: That's why I love the six points. I'm with you.
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  Speaker 1: That was I was debating coming into the studio. Do
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  Speaker 1: I go Eagles minus six and a half or did
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  Speaker 1: I go Saints plus six as my third pick?
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  Speaker 3: So I know something really funny. Yes, I actually had
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  Speaker 3: the same debate and then you took it and I
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  Speaker 3: was like, fine, I'll.
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  Speaker 1: Go with because, Okay, when you're thinking about these games
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  Speaker 1: early in the season, you're right, we don't know a
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  Speaker 1: lot about the Saints and we don't know a lot
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  Speaker 1: about it to just take points because here's what I
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  Speaker 1: feel like I do know about the Saints offense. They're
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: better than a year ago. Because at no point last
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: year did their running game ever open up holes like that.
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  Speaker 2: They played the Panthers twice last year.
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  Speaker 1: I know the Panthers defense might be worse last year,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: but they played some of the worst defense in the
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  Speaker 1: league last year.
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  Speaker 2: They never did that. They never scored nine straight times, they.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Never protected Derek Carr that well, they are going to
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  Speaker 1: be better this year. And the Cowboys, that was a
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: very strange game too. In the second half they only
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: had like fifty yards of offense. Like that half counts
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  Speaker 1: too when I look at their evaluation. I know they
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  Speaker 1: were playing against the Browns, so that gives me some
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  Speaker 1: concern and maybe the Browns are just a total mess
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  Speaker 1: on offense. And so I look at this game and
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  Speaker 1: I'm just thinking it's relatively low scoring and it's gonna
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  Speaker 1: be a close game, and so give me the six points.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you on all of that, except I
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: do want to point out the NFL robbed us of something. Actually,
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: it would actually be a John Fossil that robbed us
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: of something. I think Brandon Aubrey could have made that
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: seventy one yard er and I'm mad but we didn't
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: get to see him try. So if it ever happens again,
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: just like, let us see it because it's fun and exciting.
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  Speaker 3: It's a reason to love the NFL. A seventy one
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  Speaker 3: yard he could have made it.
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  Speaker 1: It's wildly conservative not to attempt that kick. Why not
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: because you're so afraid of a kickoff return? Happiness not
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: gonna half dynamic. It's dynamic. That means that you don't
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: know what's gonna happen. So let's review our picks. In
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: the end, we are both on Rams winning this week. Yep,
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  Speaker 1: I checked.
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  Speaker 2: Donny like that.
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  Speaker 1: Absolutely. Ellis will be into the show this week. I
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: don't want to get her to making picks that early
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: in her life.
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  Speaker 2: Eagles minus he's.
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: Allowed to pick, just like us. We are allowed to pick.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: The NFL policy against it has us just making picks.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: But you can follow us on this show every week.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: And again it's gonna be Eagles minus six and a
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: half for me, the Rams and the Titans plus four.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: You are taking the Steelers fout, thet Broncos fust and
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: then what were your other two?
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: And then same with you on the Rams, and then
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: I'm taking the Cowboys to win, but not to win
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: by more than six points.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, so I'm going to do a thing on this
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: show each week. You can take or you can leave.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: You can tell me what you think. Last week on
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: this very show, I gave you a few more picks.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I gave the listeners like, here are the ones that
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: just mixed, and then I made a square around them
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: on this on this note card that I have, you
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: know how those picks did last week?
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: They would have four and oh so I would have
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: been six and one.
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  Speaker 1: If you if you were tracking my picks last a guy,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: the Saints, the Colts, the.
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: I can write something in a box that happened last
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: week too, right.
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  Speaker 1: So this week the ones that just miss it was
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: also your Saints.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: I agree with you there.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: I kind of like the Falcons and the Bucks both
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: getting points as underdogs. How the Vikings are at home,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: the Bucks are on the road. But it's a lot
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: of points to give the Vikings five at home in
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: the Bucks seven and a half. And then I like
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: I mentioned I like the Steelers, and I kind of
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: like the Jaguars. This week against the Browns team, I
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: don't think it's going to be very good. But those
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: aren't those aren't my favorite.
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: You're so generous. Why, well, then we'll put then we'll
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: add in my spicy too. It's just my one s.
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: But it's a player one Okay. I mean it kind
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: of breaks the rules. But you broke the rules, I'm
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: also going to break the rules. I think brock Bauer
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: scores his first touchdown this weekend.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: Ooh, that's a good one.
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: Listen. They're gonna be playing from behind, They're going to
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: need to throw the ball. I think that the Ravens
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: have shown that if you don't know if Devanta Adams
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: who are going to cover, Jacoby Myers, who are going
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: to cover? So I think brock Bowers, who ran nine routes,
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: nine different routes last week, that means they trust him.
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: And he was on the field for he ran twenty
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: six total routes. So if you're looking at who they
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: might trust and who could be, I just think it's
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: a good pick.
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: I'm as fantasy owner title. And they gave up a
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: lot over the middle of the field last week.
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: I'm just saying, I think that's that yards after the catch.
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: They're watching that film, zach O Orbware, brock Bowers is.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: Coming for you.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Because there weren't like a lot of rookies that had
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: monster games. There was a lot of kind of brock
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Bower sape games like five or fifty eight. That's an
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: awesome that is a monster tight endgame. He looked like
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: exactly like he looked in college. So I'm very excited
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: as someone who drafted him in my fantasy team. And
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: I helped my daughter draft her fantasy team and she
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: got out.
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: Wait so she could play fantasy, but you can't pick it.
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: She could play.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: I play a little fantasy. She won her league last
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: year by taking almost all rams. That was our picks
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: for this week. I'm excited to do this each and
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: every week. We're both two and one, so we're on
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: the plus side. I am feeling good about it. That's
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: all for this week's NFL Daily. Of course, we will
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: be back on Sunday night for the recap show in
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: the meantime.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: So glad that football is back.