Latest / Kvetch & Release / Cell Phone "Diplomacy" Won't Lower Gas Prices: Inside Trump’s Chaotic White House Strategy

Transcript

Cell Phone "Diplomacy" Won't Lower Gas Prices: Inside Trump’s Chaotic White House Strategy · Kvetch & Release

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's time for another edition of Leibniz Gotta Take. Good morning, John.
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: Good morning, Gene.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: So the midterms are coming up in a few weeks
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: in the U.S. The price of gas is crazy. You know,
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I monitor it every single morning here on Volitis on
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: the News so people can get the best deal. Now,
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: you call Trump a bad wizard, trying to sell an
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: illusion from in front of a curtain. Yeah, I remember
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: that movie. So he's at a rally shooting, let's let
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: him hit L.A. and San Diego. No wonder he didn't
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: get the Nobel Peace Prize. The U.S. military leaks a
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: massive bombing plan. Then he posts on Truth Social that
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: all the strikes are paused. I can't figure it out.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Is this total internal chaos or is he playing the
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: classic madman strategy?
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: You know, Gene, this is like the Wizard of Oz
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: right now, but the problem for Trump is that you
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: can't sell an illusion when the curtain keeps blowing open
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: and exposing the operator furiously pulling on the levers on
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: his cell phone. What we're watching in real time is
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: a high-stakes, nerve-wracking game of chicken, I guess, between Washington
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: and Tehran and the global financial markets. I mean, this
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: is utter chaos, but it's also Nixon madman theory to
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: an extent. It's a lethal blend, if you will. He's
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: trying to execute that Nixon strategic ambiguity, but he's not
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: doing it through back channels or through strategic bomber alerts
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: the way that it was done under Nixon. He's broadcasting
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: it live on social media and at campaign rallies and
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: on television. He desperately wants Tehran to believe that he's
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: volatile enough to flatten the country. but he needs Wall
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: Street energy traders and suburban drivers to believe he's a
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: cool-headed peacemaker who has everything under tight control before Americans
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: hit those polls on November the 3rd. So he's trying
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: to hold two completely contradictory positions at the same time.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: The audience is watching the mechanism break in real time,
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: and it's like hiring a guy to fix your car
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: who says, I might disassemble the whole thing and leave
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: it in pieces, or maybe I'll finish the job. We'll
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: see how I feel after lunch. And then he charges
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: you an extra dollar for gas.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Oh, geez, good analogy. Well, speaking of gas, it's incredibly
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: important to every driver here in southern Ontario. Now, Trump
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: says no strikes until November 3rd against Iran. I'm wondering,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: why isn't a simple tweet, John, enough to bring the
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: price of gas and diesel down before America even votes?
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: Because you can't tweet away the brutal real-world physics of
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: the price of a liter or a gallon of diesel
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: or regular. Commodity traders aren't scrolling Truth Social looking for
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: bedtime poetry. They're tracking physical tankers and missile telemetry in
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: the Persian Gulf. I mean, Trump's posts that he makes
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: are classic high-volume market jawboning, if you will. It's a
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: desperate verbal attempt to force the crude futures down so
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: down-ballot Republicans don't get completely incinerated on inflation at the
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: gas pumps. But energy market prices are tangible physical risks
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: that are built in. They're not pre-election promises. So traders
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: know that a social media post doesn't sweep sea mines
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: out of the water, nor does it stop an Iranian
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: drone from slamming into a commercial vessel. And Wall Street
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: sees right through all of this pre-midterm holding pattern manufacturing.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: So they know the underlying conflict hasn't been solved. It's
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: just like Han Solo in Star Wars, frozen in liquid carbonite.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: You know, I was watching the news and I saw
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: reports of shipping companies paying captains around $ 50, 000 U.S. in
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: what they call hazard bonuses just to sail through the
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: conflicted waters in the Middle East. with crews sandbagging their
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: decks and running in total darkness in the middle of
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: the night. Now, John, how do you run a global
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: oil market when moving crude literally becomes a combat mission?
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Gene, the second moving oil becomes the combat mission, the
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: global market starts pricing in an outright war. It's that simple.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: I mean, look at the sheer terrifying economics of what's
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: happening on the water. When a maritime firm has to
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: shell out 50 grand U.S. just to keep a captain
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: at the helm, triple crew hazard pay, and absorb war
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: risk insurance premiums that have spiked fivefold just to clear
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormuz, that cost isn't swallowed by corporate
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: benevolence because they feel nice about it. It gets slapped
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: directly onto every single barrel of crude, and that gets
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: passed down market directly to you at the gas pump
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: in Windsor or in St. Catharines. I mean, Trump can
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: declare a diplomatic pause all day long, but as long
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: as merchant mariners are stacking sandbags around ship bridges to
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: deflect drone shrapnel, energy prices are going to stay where
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: they're at. And listen, Gene, I'm no economic expert, but
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: it seems to me if you're paying a guy 50
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: grand extra just to drive a boat so he doesn't
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: get blown up by a suicide drone, you're not really
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: buying oil anymore. You're just buying a very expensive ticket
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: to a movie where the main character gets hit by
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: a drone. And then you're paying more money at the
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: gasoline pump just to get home from the theater.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah. You know, the White House and Trump is selling
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: a narrative that Iran is broken and the U.S. is winning.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: You know, the war that was only supposed to last
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: three or four days, according to Trump, who didn't win
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: the Nobel Peace Prize. Meanwhile, CBS News the other night
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: just aired footage of American troops having to abandon a
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: base in Kuwait under very heavy missile fire. So how
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: does a midterm campaign team square that narrative when the
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: evening news is airing footage of bases under attack?
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the problem for Republicans, is that they
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: can't square this narrative whatsoever. I mean, campaign spin wants
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: a slick victory headline, but the raw reality shows troops
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: diving into bunkers in the desert. That footage of U.S.
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: service members retreating under fire is an absolute torpedo below
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: the waterline for the White House's narrative. I mean, it
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: punctures the maximum dominance illusion and exposes the brutal truth
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: that while Washington politicians are trying to engineer acute calculated
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: pre-midterm pause to protect vulnerable candidates... Soldiers on the ground
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: have been facing deadly asymmetric threats while burning through dwindling
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: interceptor stocks. It highlights the massive insulting chasm between what's
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: being told at campaign rallies and what's actually happening in
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: the theater of war. And, you know, if Democrats take
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: control of Congress next month, that broadcast footage from Kuwait
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: is going to be Exhibit A in a subpoena-backed oversight
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: hearing on day one.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: So what happens on November 4th, the midterms in the U.S.?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: They're over and done with. and the need for restraint
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: evaporates for Trump. If the Republicans lose control of Congress
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: and the Democrats get subpoena power, as you mentioned, how
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: wild do those 60 days between Election Day and January
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: actually get?
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: If Republicans lose control of Congress and Democrats get subpoena power,
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: November 4th will mark the exact moment that the handcuffs
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: come off and the artificial brakes fail. Whatever fragile restraint
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: we're seeing right now expires the very second that that
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: last precinct reports in. If Republicans lose either chamber, Trump
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: faces a relentless domestic siege. Subpoenas raining down on his administration,
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: his business empire, his family, his friends, his foreign policy decisions.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: Then there's going to be the unredacted Epstein files. I mean,
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: a president who feels backed into a corner domestically, stripped
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: of any remaining electoral checks, that's the most volatile political
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: force on earth. He won't be a lame duck. He's
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: going to be like, I don't know, like a lame,
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: barging hippo, if you will. I mean, Central Command strike
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: rosters have already been finalized. They're sitting on his desk.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: The moment that November 3rd passes, this cynical holding pattern
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: will snap. We could see a massive military escalation in
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: the Gulf within moments of polls closing. He just sent
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: another aircraft carrier out there. So I say buckle up
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: because the post-midterm window is going to be absolute bedlam.
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: You know what they call a guy who loses his job,
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: gets served 40 subpoenas, and still has the keys to
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: a fleet of stealth bombers, Gene? That's a guy who's
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: going to make gas so expensive you're going to have
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: to trade your car for a donkey. And that donkey's
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: going to be asking for hazard pay, probably.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: It's going to be an interesting couple of months. Great
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: take this morning. Thank you, John.
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: Thanks, Gene. Have a great weekend.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving to you. John Litke. And Litke's got to take.