Latest / Inside Politics / Peter Dutton’s speech, and let the election begin

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Peter Dutton’s speech, and let the election begin · Inside Politics

0:01
S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
0:03
S1: This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley. Usually we bring
0:07
S1: you this podcast on Friday, but we're bringing this episode
0:10
S1: on Thursday, March 27th. So it's Canberra's version of Christmas,
0:14
S1: Federal Budget Day. On Tuesday, the Albanese government handed down
0:18
S1: its fourth federal budget. We got a tax cut, which
0:21
S1: the opposition has labelled a cruel hoax and a largish
0:24
S1: deficit in the forward estimates. With a little bit of
0:27
S1: something for everyone. It was very much a pre-election budget.
0:30
S1: But will it win voters over? But first up, we're
0:34
S1: bringing you this episode soon after Peter Dutton gave his
0:36
S1: budget reply. And so we'll dissect the opposition leader's speech
0:40
S1: before delving into the issues of the week and the
0:42
S1: government's budget.
0:44
S2: Thank you very much, Mr. Speaker. Well, to Australians listening tonight,
0:48
S2: thank you very much for your time. Soon you'll have
0:50
S2: a say in determining the future of our great country.
0:53
S1: So we're coming to you. Late on Thursday night, after
0:55
S1: Peter Dutton's budget reply speech in the House of Representatives
0:58
S1: and zipping over from the house to the press gallery,
1:03
S1: we have Shane Wright and David Crowe. Meanwhile, I'm at
1:06
S1: home in Sydney. Hi, guys.
1:08
S3: Hello, both.
1:09
S4: Hello to all.
1:10
S1: Okay, so let's talk about the Peter Dutton speech. First
1:12
S1: of all, just David, you just want to give us
1:14
S1: a quick, quick run through of the main measures or
1:17
S1: main promises. He made.
1:19
S3: The main messages in terms of policy were things that
1:22
S3: he has mostly already announced. We already knew that he
1:25
S3: was going to cut fuel excise, for instance, and we
1:28
S3: heard more about that in the speech. Um, but clearly
1:32
S3: he's decided not to go anywhere on personal tax cuts.
1:36
S3: So it was the absences in the speech that were
1:38
S3: as interesting in a way, as the things that he
1:41
S3: talked about. He also had a big message about passing laws, um,
1:45
S3: in the first days of a Dutton government to do
1:48
S3: things like manage community safety, manage migration, uh, address the
1:53
S3: housing shortage and guarantee funding for things like health and
1:58
S3: the NDIS, tried to defend himself against Labour attacks about
2:02
S3: spending cuts. However, what he didn't have was clarity about
2:08
S3: his migration target. Um, an actual policy about housing supply
2:13
S3: or in fact, any really new policy about community safety,
2:17
S3: even though that was a big theme of the speech.
2:19
S3: So he's clearly keeping his options open for further policy
2:23
S3: announcements during the campaign.
2:26
S1: Yeah. Shane, what did you think about the sort of
2:27
S1: funding side of things? Because he did announce, I mean,
2:30
S1: they're meeting or matching labor on a lot of the
2:33
S1: sort of more social measures, right, like the Medicare funding, PBS.
2:36
S1: They're also promising the fuel excise cut. And he said
2:40
S1: generally that he wanted to make Australia a mining and
2:43
S1: agricultural and manufacturing powerhouse again, and they would invest in that,
2:46
S1: and that would boost the economy and make more money
2:49
S1: to spend on services. But I mean, is is that
2:52
S1: a sort of solid enough commitment?
2:54
S5: I wouldn't want to build your house, let alone my own.
2:57
S5: On that foundation. Um, Jackie. It was interesting because, for instance,
3:02
S5: one of their big saving has been we're going to
3:04
S5: get rid of somehow 41,000 public servants. And only a
3:08
S5: few weeks ago he said. Right. It will save 6
3:11
S5: billion a year. Four times that we save 24 billion,
3:15
S5: which will mean we are able to pay for a
3:17
S5: whole host of things in the speech. He's actually conceded. Right.
3:20
S5: We get rid of them eventually. It'll cost. It'll save
3:23
S5: us $7 billion a year, but it will take us
3:26
S5: over the next four years. That will only save us
3:29
S5: 10 billion. So you've immediately got a $14 billion issue.
3:34
S5: He outlined some of the things that they're going to cut,
3:37
S5: which we knew, such as the National Reconstruction Fund. But
3:40
S5: that's off budget. So that doesn't hit the bottom line.
3:45
S5: During the speech he. This is about fuel excise. And
3:49
S5: this was just dropped in while he was speaking. He
3:51
S5: said yes, we'll provide fuel excise relief. Uh, it'll cost
3:56
S5: us $6 billion, and then we'll review it. The we
4:00
S5: will review. It was added. So he's given out this
4:02
S5: hope that you will get a continuation of the fuel
4:05
S5: excise reduction. And I'm glad you picked up on the
4:08
S5: other key economic issue, which I want to read it
4:12
S5: out because he said my intention is to make Australia
4:14
S5: a mining, agriculture, construction and manufacturing powerhouse. Again.
4:20
S2: The revenue generated from these revived sectors will create more
4:23
S2: money to build new infrastructure, to fund health and education,
4:28
S2: and importantly, to equip our defence forces.
4:31
S5: That like it's straight out of a like almost out
4:34
S5: of a Donald Trump speech where you'd say, we're going
4:36
S5: to make these great areas again. Strong agriculture employs fewer
4:41
S5: than 300,000 people. Mining employs 300,000 people, manufacturing 881,000in construction,
4:48
S5: a bit larger. But that's only 20% of the workforce.
4:52
S5: Force who's going to save the rest of the country?
4:54
S5: We didn't get a mention of, say, the people working
4:57
S5: in healthcare there. The biggest number employed by 2.3 million.
5:02
S5: Nothing about the education people. 1.3 million. Professional services. Another 1.3.
5:08
S5: So really it's a harking back like we are talking
5:12
S5: about where Australia, the Australian economy was 50 years. 60
5:16
S5: years ago when Bob Menzies was watching a Holden FJ
5:20
S5: roll off the, uh, off the the plant down in
5:23
S5: Fishermans Bend in Melbourne. It's really interesting in what he's
5:27
S5: trying to hark into, and also papering over the fact
5:31
S5: that there is a lot of there's absence, a lot
5:34
S5: of detail.
5:35
S1: Yeah, that's what I found interesting about that. Um, that
5:38
S1: claim or that sort of the generality of it, that
5:41
S1: all of these industries, they're just going to grow somehow magically,
5:44
S1: without any real policy detail, and they're going to fund
5:47
S1: all of the things that we need to fund. And,
5:50
S1: you know, the problem of the structural deficit. David, let's
5:53
S1: talk about the sort of vibe of the speech before
5:56
S1: we were on air. Shane and I were sort of
5:57
S1: talking about how at the beginning it was a little
5:59
S1: bit dark because he sort of was talking about Australia
6:02
S1: under labor, and he was saying that aspiration has turned
6:04
S1: to anxiety, National confidence has turned to uncertainty. So he
6:09
S1: did paint a little bit of a scary picture. Did
6:12
S1: it come out more hopeful? What was the overall atmosphere
6:15
S1: of the speech?
6:16
S3: Oh, I think in these speeches you have to offer hope.
6:19
S3: At the end. You have to offer a better Australia
6:23
S3: as your proposition going into the election. So I think
6:25
S3: the speech ticked off on that. It's a fundamental requirement
6:28
S3: in the budget reply speech, but it was overwhelmingly negative
6:32
S3: in terms of the picture it painted of Australia today
6:34
S3: and this urgent need to change direction. And he did
6:38
S3: lay it on pretty thick.
6:40
S2: Now every election is important, but this election does matter
6:44
S2: more than others in recent history. It is a sliding
6:47
S2: doors moment for our nation.
6:49
S3: But he didn't have dramatic new policies to claim a
6:54
S3: quick turnaround. So it was a funny combination of some
6:59
S3: of the kind of rhetoric that we're accustomed to from
7:02
S3: Peter Dutton, negative rhetoric about how bad the government's been
7:06
S3: and about how bad they've left Australia without enough detail
7:10
S3: about what he would do instead, even on migration. We're
7:13
S3: now meant to wait for later in the campaign to
7:16
S3: find out what his net overseas migration target will be. Um,
7:21
S3: so there's some vagueness there. Um, but let's face it,
7:25
S3: he's in a fluid situation, I think. Um, he was
7:30
S3: sometimes hesitant in his delivery of the speech as well.
7:33
S3: And there were signs that there were some late changes made.
7:36
S3: There were some things in the draft speech that we
7:38
S3: received under embargo, which then he didn't say. And there
7:43
S3: were things that he added to the speech. That's a
7:45
S3: sign of late changes and a process where there's been
7:49
S3: some editing of the message, and I can understand that
7:52
S3: for a clear reason. Late on Thursday, it became very
7:57
S3: clear from Labour briefing that Anthony Albanese was going to
8:00
S3: call the election early on Friday. We began to get
8:03
S3: more clarity about Anthony Albanese's plans, even to the point
8:08
S3: where at around the same time we were getting a
8:11
S3: draft copy of Peter Dutton's speech. I was getting an
8:15
S3: indication that the election would be on May 3rd. So
8:18
S3: in that situation, Peter Dutton's not the only part of
8:22
S3: the news story is he. And I think in that situation,
8:25
S3: when they know that the election is about to be called,
8:28
S3: they know not to put all their policy announcements into
8:30
S3: this one speech on Thursday night, because there's still some
8:34
S3: time to go in the election campaign.
8:36
S5: I just want to add, Jackie, and this goes to
8:39
S5: what we didn't hear. Like there's this commitment right near
8:42
S5: the end of the speech about we will announce significant funding,
8:47
S5: extra funding to defense. And you go. Yep. Within two paragraphs,
8:51
S5: he'd moved on to schools. And so it's a really
8:55
S5: unusual structure. We go from we're going to save the
8:58
S5: country from, as he says, asymmetric. We need asymmetric capabilities
9:04
S5: to deter a larger adversary. And within 25 seconds, he's
9:09
S5: then talking about we need to restore a creek, a
9:12
S5: curriculum that teaches core fundamentals. And they are critical thinking,
9:16
S5: responsible citizenship and common sense. I wish I had a
9:21
S5: class at high school at Cootamundra High in common sense.
9:23
S5: I may have got further in the world than just
9:25
S5: being an economic journalist, but it was such a, um,
9:29
S5: at such an interesting combination of defense into, uh, social,
9:34
S5: not social cohesion. This is about social unity and schools.
9:39
S5: It's really jarring.
9:41
S1: It moved across a lot of subjects very quickly, I thought.
9:43
S1: And one notable absence for me was, you know, we
9:46
S1: didn't really hear much about nuclear energy. We heard a
9:48
S1: lot about gas. And make sure that we have a
9:50
S1: gas supply, particularly in the eastern states, and that's going
9:54
S1: to bring down energy prices. But what did you think
9:56
S1: of that, David? No, no real detail on the nuclear plants.
10:00
S3: There has been this question in recent weeks about why
10:02
S3: they're not talking much more about nuclear. Um, they're clearly
10:06
S3: aware of the electoral or potential for electoral blowback. The
10:11
S3: gas policy itself is something that I think does cut through,
10:14
S3: in a sense better than nuclear. It's Australian gas. For Australians,
10:19
S3: that'll be a popular message for people who have concerns
10:22
S3: about how much gas is being shipped off to overseas customers,
10:25
S3: when they want lower prices for their winter heating here
10:29
S3: at home. The great complexity there is how he tells
10:33
S3: gas companies, sorry, you can't sell that gas on the
10:36
S3: spot market and make a huge profit because I'm going
10:39
S3: to force you to sell it in Australia at a
10:41
S3: lower price. so there's a lot to be worked through
10:44
S3: on how that actually works and whether it can be achieved,
10:48
S3: but I think it does get into a big environmental, uh,
10:53
S3: fight that he is ready and willing to have about
10:57
S3: shutting down the environmental defenders office, stopping the agitators from
11:01
S3: blocking new gas projects and unleashing more gas across the
11:06
S3: country for the domestic market. Some people love that idea,
11:10
S3: but a lot of people hate it.
11:11
S1: Let's just talk very quickly now about the personal pitch
11:15
S1: that Dutton made right at the end of the speech.
11:17
S1: It was very much a pre-election budget reply. It couldn't
11:20
S1: be more pre-election. It's literally on the eve of it
11:23
S1: being called. But Dutton got a bit personal towards the end.
11:27
S1: He said that he's going to lead with conviction, not
11:29
S1: walk both sides of the street. You know, very pointed
11:31
S1: reference to his, um, assessment of Albanese's character. He said
11:36
S1: that he'd been a policeman, that he'd protected the community,
11:39
S1: especially women and children. He'd been a small business owner.
11:42
S1: He came from a working class family, and he's a
11:45
S1: parent and, you know, believes that family is the most
11:48
S1: important unit in society. I mean, that made him a
11:51
S1: pretty relatable sort of everyman, don't you think, Shane?
11:56
S5: Yeah. And and that's where he was talking, say, about
11:59
S5: his wife Kirrily. And he. There was the only joke.
12:02
S5: It was a good joke talking about Curly's at home.
12:04
S5: She's had surgery on her wrist. She may be watching
12:07
S5: this or she may be watching MAFs.
12:10
S2: I want to give a shout out to curly tonight,
12:11
S2: who's just had surgery on her wrist and is at
12:14
S2: home watching with Rebecca, Harry and Tom. Unless maths clashes
12:18
S2: with this broadcast.
12:21
S5: Because he does have a sense of humour. It's just not.
12:24
S5: It's not very often on display. Um, and so you're right,
12:28
S5: like I found it interesting, as David mentioned, he was
12:31
S5: going to finish up by referencing John Howard, but the
12:34
S5: John Howard reference got got dropped.
12:37
S1: It was a really it was a personal pitch. pet.
12:39
S1: It was like, you know, this is who you're going
12:40
S1: to be voting in. This is the kind of man
12:42
S1: that I am and is. This is the kind of
12:44
S1: man you want for Prime Minister. Vote for me. Right.
12:46
S3: So I regarded some of that as well. It's an
12:49
S3: essential element of the budget reply speech, telling Australians more
12:53
S3: about who he is as a human being. You've got
12:55
S3: to do that because you're seeking the highest office in
12:57
S3: the land. But, you know, let's face it, he goes
13:00
S3: hard against Anthony Albanese and often Anthony Albanese goes hard
13:05
S3: against him. So we saw that personal contrast. In some
13:08
S3: ways it was a lot of the usual hard rhetoric
13:13
S3: we get from from Peter Dutton. Um, we heard we
13:18
S3: heard more of that with only a judicious amount of
13:20
S3: new policy.
13:29
S1: Let's just talk really quickly through the budget measures. Obviously,
13:33
S1: the tax cut was the only real sort of new
13:35
S1: thing the opposition has already said that they are going
13:38
S1: to oppose it, and if it is legislated and they
13:41
S1: win government, they will repeal it. It is a pre-election budget,
13:44
S1: whether we like it or not or whether it's typical
13:46
S1: or not. David, is it likely to contain enough promises
13:50
S1: and enough largesse to win over the public as we
13:53
S1: go into an election campaign?
13:54
S3: I think it's a pretty good foundation as a political document,
13:58
S3: and that's when you look at it more broadly, not
14:00
S3: just focusing on the new news from Tuesday night, which
14:03
S3: was the tax cut. When you think about it in
14:06
S3: terms of the $8.5 billion for Medicare. The action on
14:11
S3: student debt. There's $2.5 billion for aged care across the board.
14:16
S3: There's a range of measures on childcare, for instance, on
14:19
S3: urgent care clinics, a school funding deal with the states,
14:23
S3: hospital funding agreements and so forth. Across the board. You
14:27
S3: see a pretty good foundation there to go to the election.
14:30
S3: And bear in mind, I don't think that they were
14:33
S3: ever set on the election being turned on the budget
14:39
S3: night itself, because if if they hadn't had a budget,
14:42
S3: they would have had an economic statement with the tax cut. Um,
14:46
S3: and there's a view within the government that they need
14:48
S3: weeks and weeks and weeks for this message to sink
14:51
S3: in throughout the electorate. So I think the days are
14:53
S3: gone where you get a major announcement just two weeks
14:56
S3: out from Election Day, because people are now voting early
15:00
S3: at those pre-poll places. So you've really got to get
15:03
S3: ahead of the game with your message and let it
15:05
S3: sink in over the full length of the election campaign.
15:09
S3: And that's why I think most of it's out there now.
15:12
S3: I have great concerns about the state of the budget
15:14
S3: underneath all this, whether the spending is affordable, whether the
15:18
S3: deficits can really continue in the way that they're meant
15:20
S3: to continue for the next decade. But if you look
15:24
S3: at it as a political document, it's actually a reasonable
15:27
S3: foundation for the campaign.
15:29
S1: Shane, the coalition has made a lot of criticism over
15:32
S1: the deficit, which for this financial year, it's about 1.5%
15:35
S1: of GDP. How bad is the deficit historically?
15:40
S4: So say the forecast is 42.1 for the coming year.
15:44
S4: That puts you in the top 1011 budget deficits of
15:48
S4: all time.
15:48
S1: Okay.
15:49
S4: So it is a substantial deficit by. I actually have
15:53
S4: doubts whether that's what you'll end up with because some
15:56
S4: of the assumptions around commodity prices, they are the ones
15:59
S4: that have been changing so much and delivering like delivered
16:03
S4: Josh Frydenberg a lot of money and it's delivered, uh,
16:06
S4: Jim Chalmers a hell of a lot of money that
16:08
S4: hadn't been expected. So I will bet with you now
16:11
S4: that we will not end up with a budget deficit
16:14
S4: of $42.1 billion. I, I always say like, everyone gets fascinated.
16:19
S4: We've got all these figures, but there's always a huge
16:22
S4: asterisk because that's not where we end up. It's the
16:24
S4: general vibe of things that we're looking for. Okay. And
16:27
S4: that's where the issue is that there is these series
16:31
S4: of deficits And unless there is a change in tax policy,
16:36
S4: if there's a lift in terms of general economic policy
16:40
S4: to get the economy growing faster, that would bring down
16:43
S4: some costs and also lift revenues, then you are stuck
16:48
S4: in this world of ongoing debts and deficit.
16:53
S1: David, where do you think voter sentiment is at with that?
16:55
S1: Because the coalition is obviously very critical of Labor's economic management.
16:59
S1: They say the deficits are too large. They've intimated that
17:01
S1: they will make some cuts to the public service. The
17:04
S1: government's intimated or strongly implied that they're planning a whole
17:08
S1: bunch of other cuts that they're not telling us about.
17:11
S1: Do you think average voters are just going to be like, look,
17:13
S1: we're in a cost of living crisis. I don't care
17:15
S1: too much about the deficit at the moment. I just
17:17
S1: want the hip pocket relief. Or will they be looking
17:20
S1: at things more holistically?
17:22
S3: I think it's more about the hip pocket relief and
17:25
S3: not worrying about the bottom line. And partly that's we're
17:29
S3: coming out of the pandemic era where there was just
17:31
S3: incredible amounts of spending and we haven't returned to the
17:33
S3: focus on, you know, what you might call budget discipline
17:37
S3: and fiscal discipline from the era before the pandemic. But
17:40
S3: there's another thing as well, which is that a lot
17:42
S3: of households are really hurting from the cost of living crisis,
17:45
S3: and living standards have gone backwards, have not been rising,
17:48
S3: and therefore there's a greater expectation on the government to
17:51
S3: help those families. And that makes it very hard for
17:54
S3: the government to say any government to say sorry, but
17:57
S3: we're not helping with that because we've got to focus
18:00
S3: on the budget. Bottom line, you can see this across debate.
18:03
S3: The budget bottom line does just it just does not
18:06
S3: matter in the way that it did a decade ago
18:09
S3: or so.
18:10
S1: Looming over this entire budget is the very large and
18:14
S1: somewhat ominous presence of President Donald Trump in the white House.
18:18
S1: His administration is set to introduce more tariffs on April
18:20
S1: the 2nd. They're calling that Liberation Day. Trump, of course,
18:23
S1: has not mentioned by name in any of the budget documents.
18:25
S1: But where does he show up in terms of Economic
18:29
S1: and fiscal projections or concerns. Shane.
18:33
S4: You can see it in the forecasts around growth for
18:37
S4: the US and China. That's the the most obvious aspects.
18:41
S4: And it is like we're talking on a day where
18:45
S4: Trump has confirmed that he's going to impose 25% tariffs
18:49
S4: on the automobile industry, which has a huge impact on
18:54
S4: Canada and Mexico. If you're in Treasury, you're trying to
18:56
S4: work out what does that mean to our most important markets.
19:03
S4: So an extra tariff on Chinese cars like BYD is
19:07
S4: the biggest. I think they're now technically the biggest electric
19:10
S4: car manufacturer in the world. Their chances of getting exports
19:14
S4: into the United States have now been changed because of
19:18
S4: a Trump tariff. Does that mean we end up with
19:21
S4: cheaper BYD vehicles in Australia? That's why for Treasury and
19:25
S4: any economists trying to work out Trump, and what he
19:30
S4: will deliver on Liberation Day is so difficult. And so
19:35
S4: that's why, again, huge asterisks over all the economic forecasts
19:39
S4: in this budget. All the bottom line forecasts. And it's
19:42
S4: also an asterisks over whatever Angus Taylor and Peter Dutton
19:46
S4: propose because and it's not a fault of them because
19:50
S4: we are in a such an uncertain period.
19:52
S3: Could I just add just a quick thing on that?
19:55
S3: One of the things in the budget lock up is
19:57
S3: you get to talk to officials, and I think it's
20:00
S3: important to convey, I guess, what you might call just
20:03
S3: the the sense of concern from officials. It may not
20:06
S3: be written in the budget document, but they're very concerned
20:10
S3: about the state of the world economy in the second
20:12
S3: half of this year. And, of course, there's total unpredictability
20:14
S3: about what happens because of Donald Trump. But let's not
20:19
S3: underestimate the level of concern about how bad things could get.
20:23
S3: And I don't think that's fully reflected in the budget
20:27
S3: numbers simply because there's so much that's unknowable.
20:31
S1: Gentlemen, thank you both very much. As we have just heard,
20:35
S1: the election will most probably be called on Friday. So
20:37
S1: we're going to be seeing everybody again very soon.
20:41
S3: Cheers, jacki.
20:41
S4: Always a pleasure, jacki.
20:45
S1: Today's episode of Inside Politics was produced by Tammy Mills
20:48
S1: with technical assistance from Debby Harrington and Josh towers. Our
20:52
S1: head of audio is Tom McKendrick. Inside politics is a
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21:14
S1: the show. Notes. I'm Jacqueline Maley. This is inside politics.
21:18
S1: Thank you for listening.