Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Ethereum ETF Approval Imminent | Technical Analysis with Gareth Soloway

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Ethereum ETF Approval Imminent | Technical Analysis with Gareth Soloway · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:07
The crypto market's continuing to heat up. Today we'll be breaking down of a
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handful of tokens, small coins as well as Bitcoin eight all that good stuff
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for you guys. It's going to be a good show, so make sure
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to stick around for all that. My name is Paul Barren, Welcome back
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into tech path. Joining me of course, mister Gareth Soloway jumping into trade
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with us today. How's it going, Gareth? Good good, great to
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be here, Thank you. Yeah, So we're going to slide in on
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a few things. I want to go over to the cobec tweet right here
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breaking crypto markets have officially add another five hundred billion of market cap since May
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first, So now Bitcoin's up twenty two percent this month, five percent away
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from making a new all time high. And of course all of this coming
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off of the potential of uneth ETF approval. There's been a lot of rumors
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on that. So I just want to jump into bitcoin up front and take
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a look at where it's currently at in your opinion, and wherein might be
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going in the short term. Take a look let us know. Yeah sure,
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so let's jump right into the chart here, and the beauty of this
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is is that this is what's called a down sloping channel, and both of
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these lines are parallel. Notice again how price topped out at seventy four,
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It then pulled back to the low end, went to the high end,
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low end, low end, and then back here. And what we see
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is when you have a parallel channel that's downsloping, generally, probabilities favor a
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breakout to the upside. And that looks like what we're getting here with the
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move above this trend line. So now the kicker is this is you'd like
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to see price stay above this yellow trend line, which is around the sixty
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nine thousand levels. So ideally, if you're a bowl, you want to
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see that hold. But as long as it stays above there, then seventy
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four thousand is your double top approximately and honestly you're probably headed even higher than
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that. So this is a great consolidation pattern. And the key to think
1:53
about consolidation is after it ran a marathon. So if we take a look
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here, let me draw this in. So essentially bitcoin went from about thirty
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five thousand to seventy four thousand. That was a marathon for it. After
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a marathon, it needs to digest or refuel This is the refueling going on,
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and then it can make another move to the upside. So overall,
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this is a very very bullish chart as long as it stays above sixty nine
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thousand, So sixty nine is the mark. Of course, a lot of
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the market movement right now has been happening off of the situation with ETH and
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the ETF. Here's the SE saying two exchanges that it's leaning toward. This
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is the SEC saying it's leaning toward approving the spot ETF. Of course,
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with some changes to some of these exchange traded funds, this of course would
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be big news, big news because we've seen such bearishness on ETH overall,
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and as go Eth and Bitcoin, most of the market kind of follows along
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with that. When you look at the ethereum chart right now in unison with
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bitcoin, let's say that you just look at Bitcoin versus ETH, how would
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you play this out? But if you weren't invested in either one right now
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and somebody said, hey, I don't know which one to go into,
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or so the key, Yeah, And that's a good question. So I
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think the first thing to recognize is that Ethereum still has not made a new
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all time high going all the way back. And so what that does is
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it tells us there's a little relative weakness in ethereum. Now ethereum could technically
3:20
have further percentage wise to the upside, meaning that it generally outperforms in bowl
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markets percentage wise. But I think investors have to decide for themselves do they
3:29
want the safe bet, which is probably bitcoin, slow and steady wins the
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race, or do they want to go for the knockout punch, which would
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be ethereum. If the ETF gets approved, it could go up exponentially.
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So I think it's really about personal preference in this situation. If we take
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a look at the chart here on ethereum, what we had was this beautiful
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consolidation off of this recent move. And look at this down this sloping trend
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line, this upsloping one going all the way back to October of twenty twenty
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three, and notice how just recently it was right on that and then we
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saw that big pop to the upside. Notice that ethereum pushed up to about
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thirty eight hundred and change, but it's now retraced back below this little pivot
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high right here. So this is your first roadblock for Ethereum just underneath thirty
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eight thousand, excuse me, thirty eight hundred, and if it can get
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through that, you should retest the forty one hundred high. But again,
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right now, this is a great breakout on the bigger play. What I
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would do on this chart, so it's hard to chase it if you're not
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long Ethereum already. I mean, do you really want to pay up twenty
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percent from the last couple days. What I would do is look for a
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bullish consolidation, back down a little bit, and then buy the retrace on
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this if you're interested. Okay, all right, Well, one thing to
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be aware of right now for some of you guys, and everybody's been asking,
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I think out there on crypto Twitter, is what is that likelihood coming
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through? I want to kind of zoom in on that right there. Agency
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has made comments on the applications that, if resolved in a timely manner,
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could result in approvals as soon as this week. So this is super bullish
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news obviously what we've seen with eth and I think the market in general has
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responded to this. If you look at all the all coins, you know,
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even Solona to a certain extent, and it has retraced some today,
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but almost everything has started to move. What's your percentage right now? I
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mean, you know, if you look at what's happening with the SEC and
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ethereum, what do you think do you think they're going to go ahead?
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Let Yeah, so number one, no one expected this. I mean pretty
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much everyone had written off the potential for an ETF, for a theorum to
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be approved this year. So this really is a curveball, and I think
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you place it now at seventy five percent versus you know, twenty five maybe
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not so I could see. Honestly, it wouldn't shock me to see them
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delay it once. But they open the door here, and once the door
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is open, it's hard for them to shut it. So it's just a
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matter of at this point, when do they When does it get approved?
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Is it, you know, in the next week, like you're mentioning,
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or is it a little further out. But I honestly think it's coming.
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Yeah, I think I agree with you and pomp He's saying if they approve
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the CTF, they're improving the entire industry, which, of course we know
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how big heat is in terms of the ecosystem. And a lot of the
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tokens you know that are moving on ethereum as well. One of course that
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we've continued to watch has been uniswap as well, So that's going to be
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a big one, I think overall. Here was uniswap's founder Hayden. He
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basically this week says, hey, the House is planning to vote on FIT
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twenty one. We talked about this quite a bit. Bit twenty one is
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the bill that essentially will get digital assets pretty much approved to a certain extent
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and out from under the guys of Gary Gensler. If you look at the
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uniewap chart, this is one of those that took a beating when that Wells
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notice came in and now do we have a chance to maybe re enter uniswap.
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What is your thought on where this goes from here? Yeah, so
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looking at the chart when you're right, we could see the big drop that
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it had right here, which was on that news as you've mentioned, and
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then essentially what ended up happening is it started to just go sideways and you
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had this little downsloping trend line. We broke out above it, and then
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once we broke out, it's really gathered some steam. Now as a trader,
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I'm watching this level right here. See how we had this kind of
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pop drop pop, bigger pop drop into that level again into here, and
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then finally it broke down. So this was support. The support level was
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around the ten forty five level. And what that means is if we get
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back to ten forty five, which is about a dollar just over a dollar
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away, that now becomes resistance on the chart. So right now we're looking
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to see can we get back to ten forty five and then can it break
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through ten forty five. If you break through ten dollars and forty five cents,
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you may be destined to getting back to about the seventeen dollars level in
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the not too distant future. But first that ten forty five level is very
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very key, and that's going to be good resistance. Yeah, and if
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this fitbail goes through, UNISWAP has already kind of already responded to this.
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It says today we responded to the sec Wells notice we believe DeFi revolutionary,
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fight to protect it. Now with the FIT twenty one bill potentially carving out
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a special scenario for DeFi platforms, Unit swapped specifically this could really change the
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course of DeFi a lot of the DeFi tokens, and obviously we know the
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ETH connectivity here, so a lot of opportunities here. I think for the
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ETH ecosystem. It's really kind of excel for sure. In Vidia has been
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in the news of course. Earnings now Alan drow forty two and thirty seven
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percent of the S and P five hundred. Let me zoom on that one,
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so you can see that one. Gareth company also accounted for eleven percent
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of the entire S and P five hundreds return over the last twelve months,
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So you got Q one coming out. Their contribution so far estimated to reach
8:37
around forty percent. How much more on in vidio? Do you feel like
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this one is just just getting started or is this thing pretty much run the
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course? Yeah? So, I mean this is such a tough one because
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listen, they're going to blow away earnings estimates, in fact estimates. The
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whisper number is that they'll be by two billion dollars on the revenue side,
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and that's kind of at a base, and a base that's what the market's
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pricing in, so they have to do better than that to push it up
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and I'm sure EPs wise they'll beat by a hefty margin as well. The
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biggest key for this, and this is what I'm focused on, and probably
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all the other analysts out there are focused on, is what is their margins?
9:16
So they had last quarter it was close to seventy seven percent margins.
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Is that starting to come down? If it's starting to come down, then
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the market is going to price in peak in Vidia, meaning that it's now
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on the downslope with competition coming. So it's tough to know what's going to
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happen here. I mean, if you ask me for where will this be
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in a year from now or two years, I think it's lower than here.
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But in the short term it's possible. They still are the main game
9:41
in town and it could go higher still. And I think if you do
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get a pop, you're looking at that one thousand even number as the key
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key point. Yeah, I like the scenario that is playing out right now
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because many people will say, I think it was Druga Miller that was talking
9:56
about this the other day, that he's short on AI in the short term
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but long on AI overall. It's just going to take some time for a
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lot of these projects and companies to kind of get get their feet underneath them,
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for sure. And if you think about it, right, if you
10:09
go back to the dot com era, when we had the bubble in dot
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Com, really short term when you was two thousand, the key was to
10:16
be short those companies, but then longer term you made a lot of money
10:20
by going long at that point. So I think it's the same kind of
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thing. AI is going to change the world. The Internet changed the world.
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The question is have they gotten to bloated and is there too much competition
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coming in right now? Liz, I've been researching new laptops, Gareth,
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and I'm seeing more integration into AI into these things, and I'm surprised at
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some of the features that are being dropped into these So I think this starts
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to mainstream. This gets into people, business people that are utilizing you know,
10:48
devices like that. Obviously we'll see it in the mobile devices. Once
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it goes mainstream, then people start, you know, even the retail investors
10:56
start to think, oh, maybe I should start investing more in AI.
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Or do you go the route of looking at the ecosystem that supports it.
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Some people have kind of pointed at utilities. Some people have you know,
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I ported it at even you know, from a standpoint of where the next
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layer of technology would go, are you playing any others that would kind of
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support the AI we'll call it as an industry. So at this point there's
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not a whole lot that hasn't run already. But you know, even you're
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talking about utilities now, utilities are usually something that you buy when it's a
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bear market and things are horrendous because they pay a solid dividend. And we've
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seen stocks like NRG, just which is a utility, just have incredible upside.
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Let me show that chart real quick here. So take a look at
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NRG and again, this is a utility, and look at the run that
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this thing has had incredible upside on this kind of idea that AI is going
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to suck up so much energy out there. So it's tough to find.
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I mean, at this point we're at a point where to be a good
11:54
investor, where you want to get in on the cheap side, it's very,
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very hard to find anything in the AI space that hasn't made a big
12:01
run. So for me, for the most part, I'm on the sidelines
12:05
where I meet there looking for retraces and then once things settle down and we
12:09
get some sort of correction in the stock market, then I'm going to start
12:13
going phishing and picking up some of these plays, but at like a twenty
12:16
thirty percent discount. Well, with that in mind, there definitely are some
12:20
plays out there on the crypto side of things, And one yes that I
12:24
like is render Render. Of course, now next move up is the question
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mark, because we're getting ready to break maybe a breakout zone for Render.
12:33
This has been a token we've been kind of pointing to for the last eighteen
12:37
months. What are your thoughts on this one and where's its future? Yeah,
12:41
so this one, if we flip over to the chart, we can
12:43
see that again it's actually had a reasonably good move. In fact, you
12:48
could argue it led ethereum and it was already starting to move up a couple
12:50
of weeks ago in early May, and then it's gone into consolidation mode.
12:54
Here. In the consolidation mode, a lot of people get kind of skittish
12:58
here, but this isn't a bad thing when you can solidate in the upper
13:01
range. So if we look at this move here, it started really right
13:03
here at around six dollars and eighty five cents went to about eleven fifty and
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at this point, notice how it's staying in the upper twenty five to thirty
13:13
percent of that entire move. As long as it stays in there, you
13:16
would favor a move to the upside that at some point would break out and
13:20
at least take us back to that thirteen level, potentially even higher. But
13:24
again, once it gets past that thirteen high, it's it's it's in uncharted
13:28
territory, so it's harder to gauge where it would stop. But certainly at
13:31
this stage it looks like a decently bullish chart in the near term. Interesting,
13:35
I'm gaining a little bit of confidence here, Gareth, because you've stayed
13:41
bull all the way through. Yeah, so let's talk about it, and
13:46
just a caveat that like so so number one, Like, I'm a trader,
13:50
so there'll be certain situations where to be honest, I was even eyeing
13:52
the thirty eight hundred level on ethereum to just do a quick short for a
13:56
pullback, let's say to thirty five or thirty four hundred. But really we've
14:00
seen some impressive breakouts here. The only caveat for the crypto space that concerns
14:05
me, it's not really crypto related. It would be if the stock market
14:09
starts to tumble. Right, So if we got in a scenario where the
14:11
stock market drops ten or twenty percent in a short amount of time, I
14:16
do think that a lot of these cryptos would get hammered just because of the
14:20
risk off scenario. But what do you let's be fak, A lot of
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the technology in the crypto space is great, Yeah, what do you think
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is at play that would cause an SMP to take a twenty percent drop?
14:31
So my biggest fear for the S and P is that we're entering a phase
14:35
where inflation is still going to stay north of three percent, but we're starting
14:39
to see economic data that's showing us that we are slow in consumers. For
14:43
instance, Disney earnings, Starbucks earnings, Expedia earnings, a lot of these
14:46
earnings are showing the consumer is starting to have trouble spending. Red Lobster filed
14:52
for unemployment, for bankrupt So just just in the day, we've seen Boston
14:56
Market, Tijuana flats, right, So the consumer is stop is starting to
15:00
stop their spending habits, and that potentially, as we know, is the
15:03
backbone of the US economy. And so my biggest fear is that if the
15:07
consumer stops and the recession hits, if inflation is too high, can the
15:13
Fed really lower interest rates substantially? And if they can't, does the stock
15:18
market then start to freak out? Yeahcase yeah, CATS twenty two that hits
15:22
a lot. With that and the potential of eth going through, especially on
15:28
this ETF, there's probably going to be a handful of other tokens. One
15:31
of course, that we like is Solana, and you can kind of talk
15:35
about it right here a little bit. Bloomberg analysts now give the ETF seventy
15:39
five. But if it's approved, get ready for all kinds of spot off
15:43
coin filing. So could we see who knows if Wow, would that be
15:48
a rumor like crazy if Solana went in for an ETF? What do you
15:52
like about Solana? What do you like about Solana? Right now? So
15:56
the first is I will divulge that this. I do have a small trading
16:00
short on this right and I'll show you guys the reason here. So basically,
16:04
and please understand that this has nothing to do with over the longer term
16:07
if Solana goes up or not. But I basically had this trend line right
16:11
here where if we look at this and we just take this high to these
16:15
lows here right, and we just put it right through these lows, we
16:18
can see that Solana ran into short term resistance right here around one eighty five.
16:22
So the idea is just simply that on a trading basis, it should
16:26
retrace back to about one fifty eight or so. See these little pivot points,
16:30
and for me, that's all I need. I just a quick little
16:33
grab from that and then I'll be out. And then we'll have to see
16:37
does it make bullish consolidation here and eventually break to the upside. And I
16:41
think that could be where it's ultimately headed is maybe further upside, but at
16:45
least in the short term. You know, I was smiling initially because you
16:48
were saying I was bullish on all these things. But as a trader,
16:51
I'm trading, remember, and so that this to me was a good opportunity.
16:53
And you can see I'm already in the money on it off this level.
16:56
Yeah, well it did back off slightly again. I think this is
17:00
still being played out with the situation. I agree. Another one, of
17:03
course, is going to be Avalanche that might actually ended up having a move.
17:07
Yesterday afternoon we started to see it move back into the forty dollars range.
17:11
Avalanche overall again very big token in terms of real world assets. They're
17:18
probably going to be one of the biggest projects out there that's going to be
17:21
diving into the retail space around loyalty. So a lot of good things for
17:25
the tech side of it. What about the token side of Avalanche. Yeah,
17:29
So on the Avalanche chart, what we've seen here and I've already annotated
17:32
it out, is that we just broke above a little resistance level here at
17:36
around forty dollars. So as long as it holds above forty here, we
17:40
should see further upside to the forty five dollars level. Once we hit forty
17:44
five, that's going to be some significant resistance and price will have to push
17:47
through that level. It should be a pretty significant door that's closed. But
17:51
again that would be what I would look for. As long as we stay
17:52
above forty look for a continued move to forty five, but then look to
17:56
see how it behaves at forty five dollars per coin here. Yeah, I've
18:02
been We've been tracking Avalanche in terms of our own sentiment data through our market
18:06
sentiment index, and this is one that has been a little bit lagging on
18:10
sentiment recently, including yesterday in the day before we started to see some upside
18:14
movement. So maybe with the ETHTF also the FIT twenty one bill, maybe
18:18
there's enough you know, breath in the market that it could move us,
18:22
you know, kind of this next level. The other token that everybody's been
18:26
talking about, of course, has been XRP. XRP is getting ready to
18:29
drop, most likely a stable coin. We could even see Ripple going into
18:33
a public filing for an IPO. All of this could been upside for XRP.
18:38
Are you looking at the XRP chart today and what do you think?
18:42
Yeah, so XRP is an interesting chart. So what we've got here is
18:45
a chart that's still in consolidation mode here and again the question is does it
18:51
break out to the upside, which would be above fifty seven cents right here
18:53
right, So if it breaks above fifty seven cents, you're going to get
18:56
a nice leg to the upside, maybe even as high as sev seventy five
19:00
cents. On the other hand, if it breaks this upsloping trend line at
19:03
around fifty cents or forty nine cents, you might revisit the forty two cent
19:08
low. So this is one where as a trader, I have to be
19:11
more neutral because it's stuck in between this range and it's not giving me a
19:15
directional signal just yet. But I love kind of the idea there. I
19:18
mean, could they go public, could they file these type of things,
19:22
and certainly that would be very positive for anyone holding their coin here the XRP
19:26
token, so definitely something of interest, but right now I would remain more
19:30
in a neutral stance. More neutral. Okay, we're I think we're leaning
19:33
in on XARP a little bit at least on our cryptopit, which is our
19:37
own research team. They like the ecosystem, whether you're looking at root network,
19:41
some of the things that they're doing, and of course what we'll see
19:42
most likely just from the awareness around stable coins could start to drive that one
19:48
a little bit more. I want to get your opinion before we go into
19:51
the outlook for bitcoin by year end. I want to remind everybody smash the
19:56
like Budon Well, love to get your feedback on these kind of videos that
19:59
we're doing. And also we've got our pole up, so fill that out.
20:02
We're gonna touch on the pole here in a second, but before we
20:04
do that, I want to hit on your idea around these log curves.
20:08
And I'm going to zoom in on this so you can see this a little
20:11
bit better. And there's a range that people are now pointing to, and
20:15
it's it's this by end of this year, somewhere around the one forty nine
20:19
would be the high one oh eight, kind of in the mid range to
20:22
the low side. What are your thoughts on bitcoin by end of year?
20:29
Is this something that could line up with what we've seen before in some of
20:33
these log curves being extended out. Yeah, so I think there actually is
20:38
something to those log curves. And I've seen them before and I've used them
20:42
before, and just jumping into the chart here, I want to show you
20:45
guys something I saw. One of the lines was around one hundred and eight
20:48
thousand dollars. Now, listen, you know, for me, it's so
20:52
hard to know is it by year end? Is it by another point?
20:55
But if we can break through the seventy four thousand dollars high and really stay
20:59
above seventy four, and let's say the stock market continues to be in a
21:02
bull mode. What I think you do is you take the previous high from
21:04
twenty seventeen and you connect it through the highs of twenty twenty one. And
21:11
if we do that, take a look at what actually ends up happening here.
21:14
If we extend that line out, it basically brings us right up.
21:18
Look at this, right up towards that you know you're gonna getend this year
21:22
end? Yeah, right, your end? Where is that? And you
21:25
go out to year end and you're you're basically right here at one oh seven
21:29
to one oh eight. So again, I just think that's an interesting confluence
21:32
of factors here where you're showing something, but then there's another trend line that
21:36
actually kind of matches up with that one oh eight. Now again, I'm
21:38
not going to pretend to know if this is a you know, is this
21:41
a year end target or twenty twenty five target? But I think the key
21:45
is just taking it step by step. Can we break seventy four thousand first,
21:48
and then we start taking a look at that next upside move. Gareth,
21:52
I'm looking at a couple of things here. I want to show you
21:55
the volume. I'm gonna zoom in on this on the chart, so you've
21:59
got eight volume and Bitcoin volume almost pacing each other right there. I don't
22:04
know if you can see that. Let me kind of zoom in on that
22:07
fifty seven right there, and man, this is just floating right around fifty
22:14
seven billion on each If that is the case, and because many people will
22:18
talk about flipping and all those kind of scenarios that could play out, But
22:23
would that one eight number, if that were to play out, would you
22:27
say that that would be the end of that bull market at that point?
22:32
Or do you think we're still in blue water? A man, you bring
22:37
in the tough questions. So the way I would look at it is,
22:40
anytime you hit a trend line that stretches back to twenty seventeen and is a
22:44
long stretching trend line, you always assume a significant pullback. Now again,
22:48
is that twenty percent? Is that thirties at forty? Is it one of
22:51
the bigger corrections like bitcoin has off pivot tops of seventy percent or greater.
22:56
That's the tough thing to say, But in the very least, if you
22:57
ask me right now, let's say by year end we're into one oh eight,
23:00
I would be shorting it as a swing trade. But obviously my long
23:04
term outlook remains that there's further upside after that. Yeah, bullish for that
23:10
interesting stuff, because guys, it is if we're at one o eight and
23:12
you get regulatory alignment, you have another big etf hitting the market and we
23:18
don't get any big major missteps by the Fed which causes you know, havoc
23:23
in you know, traditional securities. This could be one of the biggest bull
23:27
runs we've seen, maybe in the history of the financial markets out there,
23:32
So we're gonna be watching it very closely. If you guys are not following
23:34
Garett, you can go over to his website, Verified investing dot com.
23:38
Check it out. It's really easy, and of course we want to get
23:42
in on the poll. And looks like you guys got a bunch of videos
23:47
over here. So this is this a new website. It is a new
23:49
website and it's made for investors and traders. Everything on there, there's fear
23:53
and greed. If you scroll down, there's earnings and economic data. You
23:57
need anything to know anything about the markets, and it's all there, chart
24:02
analysis and articles so so real earning calendar. Yeah, I like the earnings
24:07
calendar there on that one so we've got Wednesday tomorrow in video coming in and
24:11
then we have some yeah oh yeah Snowflake. Yeah, I think that's toast.
24:15
Yeah, it'll be interesting to watch. I'm not shorter long, so
24:19
i'll see. Yeah, Snowflake is one. I'm not a big bull on.
24:22
Hey, Gareth, let's go over to the pole real quick before you
24:25
get out of here, and we'll get your opinion. Let's take a look
24:26
at the pole real quick. What happens first? Eighth to four thousand,
24:30
Solana to two to fifty, Avalanche fifty and XRP to a dollar. Everybody
24:36
is banking on eight coming into four thousand bucks? What do you think what
24:41
happens first here? I'm gonna go with the eight four thousand as well,
24:45
even a double top yet So usually I know I'm contrarian, but in this
24:48
situation, with the hype around the ETF, I think you got to think
24:52
it can push up another three hundred bucks here. All right, listen,
24:55
guys, this is uh that we're making history today with Gareth. He actually
25:00
agreed with the BB audience. So everybody's gonna come back and start watching Gareth
25:04
videos again, saying hey, what what whoa He's he's what whoa he's?
25:08
He's what whoa? He's? He's what whoa? He's? He's what whoa?
25:12
He's? He's. Believe me, everybody's watching. The idea is a
25:15
big ask. Hey Gareth, always good seeing you. We'll definitely get you
25:18
back in soon. All right, sounds good, Thanks so much, Have
25:22
a good take care. Are you guys, If you're listening in on the
25:25
podcast, guys, If you're listening in on the podcast, you guys.
25:27
If you're listening in on the podcast, guys, If you're listening in on
25:30
the podcast, guys, if you're listening in on the podcast guys. If
25:32
you're listening in on the podcast, guys, if you're listening in on the
25:33
podcast downs all that good stuff in the gaming sector, if it's anything blockchain
25:38
or crypto, you're gonna catch it right here on PBN and are on PBN
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