Latest / Thinking Transportation: Engaging Conversations about Transportation Innovations / When Traffic Takes Sick Leave: COVID’s effect on Texas roadways.
Transcript
- 0:14Bernie Fette (host): Welcome.
- 0:15Bernie Fette (host): This is Thinking Transportation-- conversations about how we get ourselves and the things we need from one place to another.
- 0:23Bernie Fette (host): I'm Bernie Fette with the Texas A&M Transportation Institute.
- 0:29Bernie Fette: Mobility researchers at TTI have been studying traffic congestion for decades, giving a gridlock rating to hundreds of cities across the United States.
- 0:38Bernie Fette: In Texas, they've been taking that examination down to a detailed level, looking at specific sections of freeways and major streets and assigning a rank to every single one, all 1,854 of them.
- 0:56Bernie Fette: David Schrank, a senior research scientist at TTI, can tell you how the roadways on your daily commute rank on that statewide list, based on the number of hours of delay every year, along with the financial cost of that delay down to the dollar, and the amount of fuel you're wasting while you're stuck in traffic.
- 1:17Bernie Fette: If you're really curious, David can tell you how much of that delay can be blamed on the trucks that are delivering your groceries and your latest Amazon order.
- 1:27Bernie Fette: He's joined us for this episode of Thinking Transportation to help us understand why all of that detail is so important.
- 1:34Bernie Fette: Thanks for being here, David.
- 1:36David Schrank (guest): Thanks for having me, Bernie.
- 1:38Bernie Fette: So you've been doing this work for about a decade, right?
- 1:43David Schrank: That's correct.
- 1:44David Schrank: We began the Texas 100 Most Congested Road Section work in, uh, 2009.
- 1:50Bernie Fette: And since that time, at least it appears that from year to year, the rankings of which roadway sections are the worst-- those don't really change very much.
- 2:00Bernie Fette: They just seem to trade spots from year to year.
- 2:02Bernie Fette: So since there's so little change, why is it necessary to keep measuring all of this every year?
- 2:07David Schrank: Well, transportation changes every year.
- 2:11David Schrank: We have new homes built.
- 2:12David Schrank: We have new businesses coming into town.
- 2:14David Schrank: New industries.
- 2:16David Schrank: The population in Texas is continuing to grow.
- 2:19David Schrank: And with that means transportation is changing.
- 2:23David Schrank: So with that in mind, we need to study and we need to track what is happening on our roadways so that we have a better understanding about where the pressure points are from year to year.
- 2:35David Schrank: As you mentioned, Bernie, the worst of the worst location tends to stay at the top of the list.
- 2:39David Schrank: And it's because of where those locations are in the metro regions of Texas.
- 2:44David Schrank: They're in critical locations.
- 2:46David Schrank: Like I-35 through downtown Austin, like the west loop in Houston, those are going to have traffic on them year in and year out because of where they are and the functions they serve.
- 2:57David Schrank: And so it's important for us to monitor those locations, to see how they are changing relative to other locations within those metros.
- 3:07Bernie Fette: In contrast, then, it seems that we see a lot more change in the rankings for those road sections that are farther down the list.
- 3:16David Schrank: That's correct.
- 3:16David Schrank: Once you get out of those top ones, you get into some of the commuting corridors that don't have enough traffic on them, 24 hours, seven days a week to make it into that top 10 or 15, but they tend to stay in the top 20 or 30.
- 3:31Bernie Fette: Okay.
- 3:31Bernie Fette: I mentioned in the introduction how you really get into a lot of detail.
- 3:35Bernie Fette: You measure hours of delay, wasted fuel, impact of truck traffic.
- 3:40Bernie Fette: Why is that level of detail so important?
- 3:44David Schrank: The detail is important because while you have two roads, for example, number one, and number two on the list, why they are there might be slightly different.
- 3:54David Schrank: For example, truck traffic on I-35 in Austin, the number-two most congested road section for the COVID 2020 year, is number one for truck traffic.
- 4:04David Schrank: And so there's different reasons for why road sections are where they're at.
- 4:10David Schrank: As I mentioned earlier, some of these are where they're at because they have congestion 24-7.
- 4:15David Schrank: And we see, for example, weekend congestion on I-35 in Austin, weekend congestion on the west loop in Houston.
- 4:22David Schrank: Whereas we don't see as much weekend congestion on some of these commute corridors.
- 4:27David Schrank: And so we need to have this detail in order to paint a clear picture about why these road sections are where they're at on the list.
- 4:37David Schrank: And then that may ultimately lead toward what we can do about trying to improve those locations.
- 4:44Bernie Fette: Being able to analyze those different factors helps you whenever you're trying to come up with the solutions for those individual road sections.
- 4:52David Schrank: It can lead you in that direction.
- 4:54David Schrank: Yes.
- 4:55Bernie Fette: Okay.
- 4:55Bernie Fette: You mentioned COVID.
- 4:55Bernie Fette: COVID 19 caused a lot of things in life to hit the pause button-- roadway traffic included.
- 5:02Bernie Fette: You and your colleagues noted that not only in this Texas analysis, but also in the Urban Mobility Report, which is a nationwide analysis, several months ago.
- 5:12Bernie Fette: What sort of takeaways do you have from doing both of those studies in a pandemic year?
- 5:18David Schrank: Well, from a research perspective is very interesting and that for the first time of study and traffic congestion, both nationwide and in Texas, we saw area-wide, statewide, national declines in traffic congestion.
- 5:33David Schrank: About half of traffic congestion disappeared during the COVID year 2020 versus 2019.
- 5:39David Schrank: That varied across the country.
- 5:42David Schrank: It varied across metro regions within Texas.
- 5:46David Schrank: A lot of it comes back to why those areas are congested in the first place.
- 5:51David Schrank: It has to do with the labor market that exists there.
- 5:54David Schrank: It has to do with the amount of trucking that's on the roads, there.
- 5:58David Schrank: Is there a port in that city that increases the amount of truck traffic on the roads.
- 6:03David Schrank: Some of these areas have more of a workforce that is on-site and essential-- warehousing, manufacturing, and those kind of jobs that you have to be on-site in order to do your job versus some that can work from home.
- 6:20Bernie Fette: Yeah, right.
- 6:20David Schrank: And so what we saw during the COVID year is a city like Austin that has, uh, a lot of state employees, has the University of Texas downtown as well, where you have not only government employees, but all the work- and educate-from-home that happened.
- 6:39David Schrank: We saw some reductions in some of the locations in Austin that were a little more sizable than some locations in Houston, where Houston might have a slightly larger employee population that had to be on-site.
- 6:52David Schrank: And so some of those kind of things contributed not only in Texas, but nationwide to who, which cities fared better for traffic congestion during the COVID year versus not.
- 7:03Bernie Fette: Mm-hmm.
- 7:05David Schrank: One of the things that we did see during the pandemic year is that truck traffic did not dissipate.
- 7:12David Schrank: Truck traffic is basically is at the same levels it was pre-pandemic.
- 7:16David Schrank: And in some locations, it was actually higher, depending on where that location was and, and how important it was in the supply chain.
- 7:25David Schrank: So what we saw is some of our Texas communities near the Mexican border, where truck traffic is trying to maintain that supply chain.
- 7:34David Schrank: We saw traffic, you know, in the port cities, across the country, also in Texas that were trying to keep the supply chain moving.
- 7:42David Schrank: And then we saw the delivery vehicles that are out in our neighborhoods now more so than ever.
- 7:47David Schrank: That truck traffic grew as well.
- 7:50David Schrank: And so truck traffic was a larger percentage of the delay that we saw in the, uh, 2020 pandemic year than in previous years.
- 8:00David Schrank: And it's probably only going to get bigger going forward as we have become more dependent now on deliveries at home and getting our groceries delivered and doing less shopping on location than we did prior to a pandemic year.
- 8:16Bernie Fette: Mm-hmm.
- 8:17David Schrank: So one of the main reasons why traffic congestion dropped like it did during the 2020 pandemic year in Texas, is that we had trips that weren't made.
- 8:27David Schrank: We had work from home.
- 8:28David Schrank: We had school from home.
- 8:30David Schrank: That traffic didn't happen.
- 8:32David Schrank: And so if we can eliminate some of these trips from the road system, we can have a major effect.
- 8:39David Schrank: What we saw nationally in the Urban Mobility Report for example, is that about 15 percent of the nation's traffic disappeared during the COVID year, about 50 percent of the traffic delay was eliminated.
- 8:55David Schrank: It didn't take that much traffic removal from the system in order to make a big effect.
- 9:02David Schrank: It's all about where that traffic was removed and what time it was removed.
- 9:08David Schrank: So when you bring it out of the peak periods and you bring it out, some of the most congested corridors, for example, it can have a major effect.
- 9:16David Schrank: So going forward, what we've learned from the COVID year is that any kind of remote activity can eliminate some traffic.
- 9:25David Schrank: And that can have a major effect.
- 9:27David Schrank: Work from home is probably going to continue to have a role in our transportation system.
- 9:34David Schrank: The question is how much of a role, and can it continue to keep pace with the growth that we expect in Texas and the U.S?
- 9:46David Schrank: Because for every new job that comes to a region, some of that job needs to be done from home.
- 9:53David Schrank: Otherwise we start our move toward gridlock again.
- 9:57Bernie Fette: Yeah.
- 9:57David Schrank: Uh, so if we have major industries in a metro region and we can do some coordination with how those industries might be able to make use of work-from-home, then we could potentially have major effects on peak period travel, but it's going to take communication and coordination.
- 10:20David Schrank: I say that because if you think about this, as we became used to our work-from-home environment during the pandemic, we got used to the fact that you could get in your car and drive anywhere almost at any time of the day.
- 10:33David Schrank: But what happens on that one day when everybody say, oh, gosh, I've gotta go into the office today.
- 10:39David Schrank: And everybody left their house at 7:30 in the morning to head in, and no one was expecting that their neighbor on each side of them is going into the office too.
- 10:47David Schrank: We would have major gridlock on that date.
- 10:50Bernie Fette: Of course, you were just talking about the Urban Mobility Report, which is, again, a ranking of congestion on an urban area level, as opposed to the Texas analysis, which looks at specific roadways.
- 11:02Bernie Fette: I'm wondering, are there any plans to take that road segment approach to a nationwide level?
- 11:08David Schrank: There are some of those sorts of analyses already happening.
- 11:12Bernie Fette: Ah, okay.
- 11:13David Schrank: The Federal Highway Administration is doing some work looking at, at freight on a more of a road segment basis across the nation, but only on the national highway system, which includes mainly the interstate highways, plus some of the other higher-end, more important roadways.
- 11:30David Schrank: So some of that's already happening.
- 11:32David Schrank: But one of the reasons why it may not happen in something like the Urban Mobility Report is that the solutions are going to come more from a state level or a regional level, as opposed to a top down from a federal approach.
- 11:49David Schrank: So studying things at a nationwide level to potentially try to develop solutions may not be something that is as useful as it is focusing on Texas or focusing on another state where the funding within that state is used to deal with the problems that are located and found within that state's boundaries.
- 12:13Bernie Fette: And you said that you've been doing this Texas analysis for a little over a decade.
- 12:18Bernie Fette: Are you aware of any other states that are looking at road segment-level congestion in a way that's as detailed as they're looking at it in Texas?
- 12:28David Schrank: There are many other analyses that are similar in their approach.
- 12:34David Schrank: Many of those they're looking at a spot on the road or a very small section of road, uh, between entrance/exit ramps or around an interchange, as opposed to looking at the entire road system broken into small road sections of three to five miles and sort of thing.
- 12:56David Schrank: That's one of the differences between Texas 100 analysis that we've, you know, been doing for 10 or 12 years versus some of the others that are done around the nation.
- 13:07Bernie Fette: Your measurement of the traffic problem over the years has evolved quite a bit.
- 13:12Bernie Fette: Is that fair?
- 13:12David Schrank: Oh, yes.
- 13:13David Schrank: It has evolved a lot.
- 13:15Bernie Fette: Okay.
- 13:15David Schrank: In, in the period of years that we've been doing congestion analyses, more so for the Urban Mobility Report than for the Texas 100 analysis, because the Texas 100 analysis has relied on GPS or probe vehicle information to supply the performance, the speed side of things versus the early years of the Urban Mobility Report, where we didn't have that kind of information.
- 13:39David Schrank: So we had to do a lot more estimation.
- 13:42Bernie Fette: Has your opinion about gridlock solutions evolved as well?
- 13:48David Schrank: With the availability of probe data now on the roads to give us minute-by-minute performance information, it allows us to have information at our fingertips that may lead us in a different direction than it might have 20 years ago.
- 14:05David Schrank: 20 years ago, our first thought might have been, well, we have congestion over here.
- 14:10David Schrank: Should we widen this road?
- 14:12David Schrank: Now, with this kind of information, we might see strictly from the probe vehicle speed information that maybe our problem is traffic incidents.
- 14:23David Schrank: And so we know now maybe an incident management program might get us the same bang for the buck as trying to widen a facility.
- 14:32Bernie Fette: And by incident management, what you mean for the non-technical folks in the audience, that's just basically getting crashes and such cleared off the road faster.
- 14:41David Schrank: That's correct.
- 14:42David Schrank: So incident management would be getting stalled vehicles, getting crashes, getting anything that, um, cuts back on the ability of the roads to carry traffic, get that removed as quickly as possible so that the traffic can get back to flowing.
- 14:57Bernie Fette: In other words, having a strategy that doesn't so much look at how to change the roadway, but how to change how we use it?
- 15:07David Schrank: Both how we use it and its ability to do its function, which is carry traffic.
- 15:13David Schrank: And things like stalled vehicles and debris on the roads and obviously crashes inhibits the road from being able to carry that traffic.
- 15:24Bernie Fette: You were mentioning in talking about solutions where you can get some of the data you need to make those decisions.
- 15:32Bernie Fette: For a moment, I'm hoping we can talk more broadly about the distinction between data and information.
- 15:38Bernie Fette: Technology in the age of big data makes it ever more possible to examine things in ever more meticulous detail.
- 15:47Bernie Fette: Is there a point of diminishing returns along that path?
- 15:51David Schrank: We are getting more and more information on a daily basis from the transportation system.
- 15:58David Schrank: A lot of it now is coming in because the vehicles that we have that we are purchasing have technology in them that sends information to the cloud and ultimately to the computers that we use to analyze performance.
- 16:15David Schrank: And so we now know things about whether a vehicle is accelerating, is braking, if the windshield wipers are on, if the seat belts are buckled, if the passenger seat has someone sitting in it.
- 16:28David Schrank: So we have all kinds of information coming in that we didn't have.
- 16:32David Schrank: And what that allows us to do is pile on to what we already knew.
- 16:37David Schrank: While a decade ago, we were thrilled to death to have speed information coming in from the actual vehicles on the road.
- 16:45David Schrank: Now we have information coming in that says these same vehicles were in a stop-and-go environment.
- 16:51David Schrank: They were hard braking.
- 16:53David Schrank: So we may have an issue on the road where we need to look at why they are hard braking at this one location, or that we have a lot of turning movements happening here on a highway that we weren't really expecting at high speeds.
- 17:07David Schrank: And do we need to do something about that in order to potentially alleviate a, a problem maybe before it even happens.
- 17:15David Schrank: So it is getting more and more difficult to analyze all that information or data and turn it into information because there is so much of it.
- 17:24Bernie Fette: I think that's where I was going.
- 17:25Bernie Fette: Where, where the challenge is.
- 17:26Bernie Fette: Yeah.
- 17:26David Schrank: The, the challenge now is to take 10 years ago, we were talking about gigabytes and now we're, we're always talking about terabytes, and I don't even know what the next byte is after that.
- 17:38David Schrank: But the thing is, it takes longer to process what we are getting now because there's more of it.
- 17:45David Schrank: But how rich it is in information continues to grow and continues to provide us a lot more detail without us having to leave our desks.
- 17:56Bernie Fette: Yeah.
- 17:57Bernie Fette: And ultimately understanding what's going on on the ground helps operating agencies come up with solutions with not just effectiveness in mind, but cost effectiveness, making sure that you're getting the biggest bang for the buck.
- 18:09Bernie Fette: Right?
- 18:10David Schrank: Well, there's two steps there.
- 18:11David Schrank: There's this planning level that allows us to take first pass at using this information to make a sort of first decision.
- 18:21David Schrank: Then there's the, what are we gonna do about it?
- 18:23David Schrank: What's the best solution out here?
- 18:25David Schrank: That same data may provide us that information.
- 18:29David Schrank: It also may point us toward what we really need to do is go out and use this type of device in order to fully understand what's happening there.
- 18:36David Schrank: But it saves us potentially a lot of time trying to figure out what we need to do there, because maybe we take the first step and it is the right step before we get out there to really understand what's going on.
- 18:49Bernie Fette: And not just saving time, but saving money, too, it sounds like.
- 18:53Bernie Fette: What you're describing sounds like one of those rare cases where what you're buying now-- the data and information-- costs you less than it did a decade ago.
- 19:01Bernie Fette: And it's worth more than it was a decade ago.
- 19:04David Schrank: We're still kind of learning and feeling our way through this new big data world.
- 19:08Bernie Fette: Okay.
- 19:08David Schrank: It, you spend more time to analyze this data.
- 19:14David Schrank: Uh, you used to spend send people out into the field and collect data and put devices out there to bring data back to you and have to maintain those devices in order to bring your data in.
- 19:25David Schrank: Now you're buying the data, but you're spending more time analyzing that data to get you the information you need.
- 19:32David Schrank: So I don't, I'm not sure yet about true cost effectiveness, but one of the things we are seeing is that it is a whole lot less risky to have this data purchased than to have people out on the side of the roads trying to collect gigabytes, terabytes of data that come in daily, monthly, yearly.
- 19:53Bernie Fette: There's a connection between traffic congestion and the economy, right?
- 19:58Bernie Fette: Stronger economy, more traffic.
- 19:59David Schrank: That's been the general concept we've looked at over 30 years in the Urban Mobility Report.
- 20:05David Schrank: And, uh, it still seems to hold true.
- 20:07Bernie Fette: Some people might believe then that a certain amount of roadway gridlock is just a price we pay for prosperity.
- 20:16Bernie Fette: What's your thinking on that?
- 20:19David Schrank: One of the reasons we have traffic congestion is that we have an always changing transportation need and that changing transportation need comes from economic activity.
- 20:33David Schrank: Economic activity does not exist in a vacuum.
- 20:36David Schrank: We have new houses being built in areas.
- 20:39David Schrank: We have new jobs coming into areas.
- 20:41David Schrank: We have different needs that are happening, and that changes the traffic patterns in a region and changes the needs for transportation in a region.
- 20:50David Schrank: And so one of the problems that comes with growth is a lot of times that growth in population and job market and other things can happen faster than we can put a transportation system in place to try to deal with it.
- 21:05David Schrank: And so we are off and chasing that growth in trying to do something about it, as opposed to being out in front.
- 21:14David Schrank: Because of that, we oftentimes are looking backwards to what our biggest problem is rather than looking forward to what might be our biggest problem, 2, 3, 5 years from now.
- 21:25Bernie Fette: And you can only forecast so much.
- 21:28David Schrank: That's correct.
- 21:29David Schrank: I mean, a lot of our transportation models in this industry look out 20, 30 years.
- 21:34David Schrank: It would be very interesting to look back and say, how did we do?
- 21:37David Schrank: But a lot of times we, we don't have the time and resources to do that.
- 21:41David Schrank: So we just keep looking forward and looking forward to what we think is going to happen, uh, and try to stay ahead of it.
- 21:47David Schrank: We have places in the country that are growing.
- 21:50David Schrank: Population in Texas is supposed to, you know, basically double in the coming 20, 30 years.
- 21:55David Schrank: And with that, we know we're going to have a demand for transportation that exceeds what we have right now.
- 22:02David Schrank: And so all we can do is keep looking forward and trying to put money where it's going to give us the biggest bang for the buck in our transportation system.
- 22:11David Schrank: And a lot of times that's trying to fix some of these choke points that we know exist in today's world, because they're only gonna get worse if we don't do anything about them and, and demand on the system goes up, you know, 10, 20, 50 percent.
- 22:26Bernie Fette: Yeah.
- 22:26Bernie Fette: And you mentioned that, you know, the 20- and 30-year models for planning, but I don't know that any one of those models had a pandemic factored into it.
- 22:35David Schrank: And I think from that perspective, one of the thoughts here is, you know, kind of, we, we may have had a reset here for a year or two, meaning that we had our traffic congestion drop back to what we saw a decade ago or more, maybe even 20 years ago.
- 22:51David Schrank: But we also saw how quickly it started coming back.
- 22:55Bernie Fette: Yeah.
- 22:55David Schrank: And we were back to pre-2019 levels by the end of the year, I believe the start of the 2021 year.
- 23:03David Schrank: And so a lot of people were like, well, it's, it's coming right back.
- 23:07David Schrank: What we don't know is who was out there in that traffic?
- 23:12David Schrank: Is it different than what we saw before the pandemic?
- 23:15David Schrank: And as we recover from the pandemic and what does that mean for the future?
- 23:20David Schrank: Is telecommuting going to play a bigger role?
- 23:23David Schrank: It might.
- 23:25David Schrank: But 25 to, you know, 100 percent population growth is going to offset potentially what we might get from the work-from-home benefit.
- 23:33Bernie Fette: Mm-hmm.
- 23:36Bernie Fette: Last thing, 50 words or less.
- 23:39Bernie Fette: You've been doing this for a while.
- 23:41Bernie Fette: What drives you to keep showing up every day?
- 23:45David Schrank: The interesting thing in this job is how it is evolving.
- 23:49David Schrank: 30 years ago, we were estimating things.
- 23:52David Schrank: 20 years ago, we were starting to get some data come in, as we started getting a little more technology, especially on roadside devices that could collect data.
- 24:02David Schrank: Now we're getting data coming straight from the vehicles.
- 24:05David Schrank: And it's interesting to see the evolution every day of the new questions we can answer, the new information we can put out there every day from the data coming in.
- 24:16David Schrank: And that keeps you coming back to the job and keeps you wanting to make sure that we are doing as good of a job as we can with this great data that's coming in to inform decision makers and policy makers, and also the motoring public about how their transportation system is performing.
- 24:34Bernie Fette: Way over 50 words, but still pretty good.
- 24:36David Schrank: .
- 24:36Bernie Fette: David Schrank, senior research scientist at TTI.
- 24:41Bernie Fette: Thank you, David.
- 24:42Bernie Fette: This has been really great.
- 24:43Bernie Fette: Thank you for sharing your time with us.
- 24:44David Schrank: I appreciate it, Bernie.
- 24:46David Schrank: Anytime.
- 24:49Bernie Fette: As uncomplicated as roadway congestion might appear on the surface, it's anything but simple.
- 24:56Bernie Fette: Understanding why traffic jams happen is just as important as knowing where they happen.
- 25:03Bernie Fette: And those reasons can include anything from new schools and businesses to employment patterns and population growth.
- 25:10Bernie Fette: And-- here's the tricky part-- how those reasons can change from one year to the next.
- 25:18Bernie Fette: Research, like that funded by the Texas Department of Transportation, aims to unwrap some of the complexity behind gridlock and lead to the best approaches for what might help to fix it.
- 25:32Bernie Fette: Thanks for listening.
- 25:33Bernie Fette: We hope you'll be back next time for a conversation with Jeff Borowiec, an expert in urban air mobility, which envisions safe and efficient movement of people and cargo at low altitudes within urban and suburban areas.
- 25:51Bernie Fette: In other words, flying cars.
- 25:55Bernie Fette: Thinking Transportation is a production of the Texas A&M Transportation Institute, a member of the Texas A&M University System.
- 26:03Bernie Fette: The show is edited and produced by Chris Pourteau.
- 26:07Bernie Fette: I'm your writer and host, Bernie Fette.
- 26:10Bernie Fette: Thanks again for listening.
- 26:12Bernie Fette: We'll see you next time.