Latest / Toadstool Sports / NFL Week 1 Best Bets
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:06Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
- 0:08Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
- 0:12Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
- 0:15Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
- 0:18Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
- 0:20Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
- 0:25Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
- 0:28Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
- 0:33Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
- 0:37Speaker 1: reached into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins
- 0:42Speaker 1: hat man, I don't know what is going on with
- 0:44Speaker 1: the bruins arch hape? Is that what it is? I
- 0:47Speaker 1: don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think who
- 0:50Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
- 0:53Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
- 0:55Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly
- 0:59Speaker 1: have with you, as I always am until I die
- 1:03Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not
- 1:07Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
- 1:11Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years. Doing this. I
- 1:14Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
- 1:16Speaker 1: The slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
- 1:21Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
- 1:25Speaker 1: do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
- 1:32Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you better off dead.
- 1:36Speaker 1: This is the NFL Week one edition. I've got my
- 1:40Speaker 1: my Colts jersey on is. I'm still a Colts fan. Unfortunately,
- 1:45Speaker 1: I'm more neutral on the Patriots now, at least the
- 1:48Speaker 1: team that I stopped rooting for back in the day
- 1:50Speaker 1: after they got Bill Belichick and Tom Brady because I
- 1:53Speaker 1: hate those guys. I started rooting for Peyton Manning. So
- 1:57Speaker 1: we got the We got the Colts going on, and
- 1:59Speaker 1: let's let's win something for Jim Orsay this year. May
- 2:02Speaker 1: even though don't like to do it at all, but
- 2:04Speaker 1: maybe the Colts will play like a decent season in
- 2:08Speaker 1: honor of him, because he died. We had a big
- 2:12Speaker 1: card today and we went five to two and one.
- 2:15Speaker 1: It was a winning day. It was a pretty good day.
- 2:16Speaker 1: I wish it was better than it was. We went
- 2:18Speaker 1: three and one in college football, it could have been
- 2:21Speaker 1: four and oh, man, I just to rehash, and I
- 2:23Speaker 1: might rehash it in the morning too. I said I
- 2:25Speaker 1: was gonna do that this morning, but for the previous day.
- 2:28Speaker 1: But I don't think I did because I think I
- 2:30Speaker 1: deleted the banners from this thing. But Troy plus thirty
- 2:34Speaker 1: one easy win for US today. Man, against Clemson, I mean,
- 2:39Speaker 1: Troy was winning the game sixteen to nothing. It should
- 2:41Speaker 1: have been seventeen and seventeen to nothing. I don't know
- 2:43Speaker 1: what they did. They missed an extra point or something
- 2:45Speaker 1: because they had a pick six. It was just ridiculous.
- 2:48Speaker 1: They were up seventeen and nothing. I think they were
- 2:50Speaker 1: sixteen and not that. Excuse me. In the second half
- 2:53Speaker 1: they wound up blow in the lead. It looked like
- 2:54Speaker 1: they might get an outright win in that game. That
- 2:56Speaker 1: didn't happen, but it was an easy cover from Troy.
- 3:00Speaker 1: I don't know what the final was. I think they
- 3:02Speaker 1: lost twenty seven to nineteen. Is that what it was?
- 3:05Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong about that, I forget. I don't know.
- 3:09Speaker 1: Twenty nine to sixteen, whatever the fuck it was. I
- 3:11Speaker 1: don't know Rutgers got there. That was getting a little
- 3:14Speaker 1: bit dicey. It was like they were constantly up by
- 3:17Speaker 1: like ten fourteen. They pushed the lead up above fourteen
- 3:20Speaker 1: to seventeen a couple of different times. They kept letting
- 3:24Speaker 1: Miami Ohio kind of slipped back in there, and all
- 3:26Speaker 1: of a sudden, it's like, oh shit, it's like whatever
- 3:30Speaker 1: it was. I think it was twenty seven to seventeen
- 3:32Speaker 1: again at one point, But then Rutgers was able to
- 3:33Speaker 1: run away with it at the end, and they did
- 3:35Speaker 1: wind up covering by multiple scores. When it was all
- 3:37Speaker 1: said and done. They actually put up forty something points
- 3:40Speaker 1: by the end of it, So we got the win
- 3:41Speaker 1: on that one and Miami Ohio just fizzled out at
- 3:45Speaker 1: the end. I think the final and that one was
- 3:47Speaker 1: forty five to seventeen. Maybe I don't know, I might
- 3:49Speaker 1: be getting that wrong with something like that. Middle Tennessee,
- 3:51Speaker 1: I thought we're going to get that cover against Wisconsin.
- 3:53Speaker 1: They were down by four at halftime, They're only down
- 3:56Speaker 1: fourteen to ten. It was looking pretty good, like, yeah,
- 3:59Speaker 1: this is gonna be a fairly scoring game. They're gonna
- 4:01Speaker 1: hang in there. They did not. They wound up just
- 4:04Speaker 1: getting blown out of the stadium in the second half basically,
- 4:07Speaker 1: and they lost the game. There were still only like
- 4:09Speaker 1: a few points off from covering though they lost. What
- 4:13Speaker 1: was it, I think it was forty two to forty
- 4:16Speaker 1: two to seventeen, I don't know, something in that range,
- 4:18Speaker 1: forty two to seventeen something like that. I know one
- 4:20Speaker 1: scorer would have put them within the number, and they
- 4:23Speaker 1: just couldn't get it done. At the end, it looked
- 4:24Speaker 1: like they were on the verge of potentially scoring just
- 4:27Speaker 1: a back door of the cover there in Wisconsin not caring,
- 4:29Speaker 1: but I think they turned it over or something. And
- 4:31Speaker 1: then we had Louisiana Tech that was a cover. I
- 4:34Speaker 1: believe what was the f final in that one? I
- 4:36Speaker 1: didn't even see it, but I know LSU just wasn't
- 4:38Speaker 1: scoring a lot of points at all in that game
- 4:40Speaker 1: last night. So it was twenty to nothing. So our
- 4:43Speaker 1: man Kukux or whatever his name was, didn't didn't didn't
- 4:48Speaker 1: get it done for us, But it wound up twenty
- 4:50Speaker 1: three to seven was the final. So LSU didn't even score.
- 4:54Speaker 1: Ku Kuck is his name, Trey Kukuk. He got us.
- 4:57Speaker 1: Not a great game for me. He wasn't terrible. I mean,
- 4:59Speaker 1: they couldn't really move the ball, but LSU didn't really
- 5:02Speaker 1: do a whole lot in the game, they didn't even
- 5:05Speaker 1: score enough points to cover the thirty seven and a half.
- 5:07Speaker 1: They only scored twenty three, so obviously they were never
- 5:11Speaker 1: going to cover that. And then in baseball we went
- 5:14Speaker 1: to one and one. We got the first one right
- 5:18Speaker 1: kicked off the day. Unfortunately with the Yankees first five,
- 5:21Speaker 1: that was a winner. I think they won the game too,
- 5:24Speaker 1: which I don't like because I'm a Red Sox fan.
- 5:27Speaker 1: I met Cincinnati. That one got dicey early. It was
- 5:30Speaker 1: like four to one early, and then it looked like
- 5:31Speaker 1: it was gonna actually happen. It was like, all right,
- 5:33Speaker 1: it's still low scoring later into the game, but then
- 5:36Speaker 1: the bullpens kind of messed it up and it wound
- 5:38Speaker 1: up pushing on the nine. It landed exactly nine. I
- 5:41Speaker 1: think it was a It might have been a six
- 5:43Speaker 1: to three final, I forget, but it landed exactly on
- 5:45Speaker 1: the nine. So that was a push. That one could
- 5:48Speaker 1: have been a win. So like every loss that we
- 5:50Speaker 1: had was kind of bullshit today and every loss in
- 5:52Speaker 1: push we won on Baltimore and the Dodgers under in
- 5:56Speaker 1: the first five. That was a low scoring game. I
- 5:59Speaker 1: don't know if two to one at the end of five.
- 6:01Speaker 1: I forget it might have been lower than that. It
- 6:02Speaker 1: might have been won nothing. I don't even remember what
- 6:04Speaker 1: it was, but it got there. And then I actually
- 6:07Speaker 1: think Baltimore was getting no hit late in that game actually,
- 6:10Speaker 1: so I don't think it was two to one, whatever
- 6:12Speaker 1: it was, but Baltimore want up winning the game with
- 6:14Speaker 1: the walk off after they were almost no hit in
- 6:16Speaker 1: the game. Dodgers not playing good baseball, man, But we
- 6:20Speaker 1: got the underwright early in the game. First five in
- 6:22Speaker 1: I think full game went under two. So if you
- 6:24Speaker 1: did that, that also was a winner. And then Houston
- 6:26Speaker 1: Texas fucked it up for us as that was a
- 6:29Speaker 1: one nothing game through fives. That would have been first
- 6:33Speaker 1: five under three and a half. That would have been
- 6:34Speaker 1: a winner in the first five, which I said, I
- 6:36Speaker 1: almost wanted to do that because I was worried about
- 6:39Speaker 1: Houston's bullpen, and Texas's bullpen is what fucking killed us
- 6:43Speaker 1: in that game. That game, I'm pretty sure that game
- 6:45Speaker 1: was still three to nothing in the eighth inning, so
- 6:48Speaker 1: it was like, all right, this is definitely going under.
- 6:51Speaker 1: Houston scored three more runs, so then it was six
- 6:53Speaker 1: to nothing going into the ninth inning, so it's still
- 6:56Speaker 1: under the seven. It's like, all right, just finish the
- 6:58Speaker 1: game off, guys. No, Houston scores five more runs in
- 7:02Speaker 1: the top of the ninth inning. I'm pretty sure Houston
- 7:04Speaker 1: scored eight runs in the last two winnings of the
- 7:07Speaker 1: game to put that thing over the seven when it
- 7:09Speaker 1: was way under. So I'm obviously pissed about that. I'm
- 7:13Speaker 1: pissed about these bullpen implosions, and that would be Texas
- 7:16Speaker 1: the more rested, better bullpen. I was worried about Houston's bullpen,
- 7:19Speaker 1: and Houston shut Texas out, and I pointed out how
- 7:23Speaker 1: Texas said allowed three or fewer earned runs two opponents
- 7:26Speaker 1: in seventy percent of their home games. That did piss
- 7:29Speaker 1: me off. Man, I did just delete those from the banners.
- 7:33Speaker 1: I'm just maybe I won't rehash it against If you
- 7:36Speaker 1: want some of my rehashes on while we're in football season,
- 7:40Speaker 1: you might have to watch my football show for it.
- 7:42Speaker 1: But that's just the way that it is. Curtis, what's up, man,
- 7:45Speaker 1: This is Indianapolis Colts. It's Jonathan Taylor here, number twenty
- 7:50Speaker 1: eight man running back. I actually have him on my
- 7:53Speaker 1: fantasy team, and last time I had him in fantasy
- 7:56Speaker 1: I won two fantasy leagues that I had him in
- 7:59Speaker 1: that huge year that he had a couple of years back.
- 8:02Speaker 1: So hopefully he does it again for me, man, because
- 8:03Speaker 1: I'm gonna fucking lose a fantasy just because I lost
- 8:06Speaker 1: Worthy this week already, Like come on, man, But Jonathan
- 8:10Speaker 1: Taylor is my top running back on my team in
- 8:11Speaker 1: that main league, so hopefully it works out for me there, Nate,
- 8:15Speaker 1: what's up? Man? Thanks for hanging out. I do have
- 8:17Speaker 1: a Peyton Manning Colts jersey somewhere too, but this is
- 8:20Speaker 1: my more modern Colts jersey. I don't have my old jersey.
- 8:23Speaker 1: I think they're at my parents' house somewhere, like stored
- 8:26Speaker 1: away somewhere, although I could have tried to find it
- 8:30Speaker 1: because I was actually there earlier today. Also, I believe
- 8:34Speaker 1: I have the BYU football game on right now. It's
- 8:36Speaker 1: whatever's on ESPN right now. It's not not an interesting game,
- 8:38Speaker 1: but I always have something going behind me here, man. Yeah.
- 8:42Speaker 1: I hate the Patriots, or I did because I hate
- 8:45Speaker 1: Belichick and Brady. I love Peyton Manning, so I became
- 8:49Speaker 1: a Colts fan. I'm kind of neutral on the Patriots
- 8:52Speaker 1: now though, Like I don't really hate Mike Vraieball. I
- 8:55Speaker 1: hate Josh McDaniels. Holy shit, dude, I'm dude. I'm telling you.
- 9:00Speaker 1: You can't hear that, probably because of my directional mic
- 9:02Speaker 1: with people. It's twelve thirty at night, twelve thirty am.
- 9:05Speaker 1: We have people revving their fucking engines outside. I fucking
- 9:09Speaker 1: hate it, dude. Like it's a residential area. We have
- 9:12Speaker 1: kids in this area, people trying to sleep. Like it's
- 9:15Speaker 1: so fucking annoying. Like those people should like they should
- 9:19Speaker 1: be arrested, man, Like you should be able to take
- 9:22Speaker 1: like vigilante action against these people. I'm not kidding, Like
- 9:25Speaker 1: you should be able to stop them from revving their
- 9:28Speaker 1: engines like that. I absolutely fucking hate it. Anyway, we
- 9:32Speaker 1: gotta get into the NFL, man, NFL. I talk about
- 9:35Speaker 1: every single NFL game. So we're one to zero in
- 9:37Speaker 1: the NFL already on the show because I gave up
- 9:39Speaker 1: Dallas on Thursday night. So we got that win Dallas
- 9:42Speaker 1: plus the eight and a half. Maybe you might say
- 9:46Speaker 1: that the stupid lightning delay excuse me, helped us out there,
- 9:50Speaker 1: but Dallas was in that game anyway, so I don't know.
- 9:54Speaker 1: I think it would have gone Dallas's way as far
- 9:55Speaker 1: as covering either way, nice, I mean, there's a chance
- 10:00Speaker 1: I might start kind of rooting for the Patriots again.
- 10:01Speaker 1: But they got to get rid of Josh McDaniels. I
- 10:03Speaker 1: hate that guy. Get rid of that fucker. But lightning delays.
- 10:10Speaker 1: By the way, if you were watching college football today,
- 10:13Speaker 1: I was like checking, like what was going on with
- 10:15Speaker 1: my games that I had? When I had the Rutgers
- 10:18Speaker 1: game and the Clemson Troy game both went into lightning
- 10:23Speaker 1: delays at the same time. We had there were at
- 10:25Speaker 1: least like seven lightning delays in college today. Like this
- 10:28Speaker 1: was never a fucking thing, Like, I'm so pissed. Uh dude,
- 10:32Speaker 1: this is just like the new era. You saw me
- 10:34Speaker 1: tweeting about it probably, like how could you have all
- 10:36Speaker 1: these lightning delays when it's football. You're supposed to just
- 10:39Speaker 1: play through fucking weather, like, suck it up, play the game.
- 10:43Speaker 1: This has never been a thing before. Man, And all
- 10:45Speaker 1: of a sudden, half the college football games are all delayed.
- 10:48Speaker 1: You have NFL games, the first real game of the
- 10:51Speaker 1: season getting delayed for like an hour, Like people are
- 10:54Speaker 1: not gonna sit there waiting for an hour for the
- 10:56Speaker 1: game to resume. It's gonna fuck up the flow of
- 10:58Speaker 1: the game, it's gonna fuck up the entertainment value, the viewership.
- 11:02Speaker 1: It makes no sense to me. This never was a
- 11:04Speaker 1: thing before. I absolutely cannot fucking stand it. But we're
- 11:09Speaker 1: gonna handicap the games, man. We're gonna go to the
- 11:11Speaker 1: NFL here. That's what we're all about. I'm gonna give
- 11:13Speaker 1: you guys three plays in the NFL here and hopefully
- 11:16Speaker 1: we do well. Week one is a little bit difficult
- 11:18Speaker 1: to figure out, man. So Week one a lot of
- 11:21Speaker 1: it is kind of based on like which teams you
- 11:23Speaker 1: think are actually just ready to hit the ground running
- 11:25Speaker 1: versus which teams we think are not based on what
- 11:28Speaker 1: they did in the preseason. So there was, you know something,
- 11:34Speaker 1: So there's something to be said about that. Yeah, Arch Manning,
- 11:36Speaker 1: I don't think he's that bad man, but he was.
- 11:39Speaker 1: He played against a very bad San Jose State defense
- 11:42Speaker 1: this time though. Yeah. I mean I like Tower game man, Andrew.
- 11:46Speaker 1: What's up? Man? I don't know which Andrew that is,
- 11:48Speaker 1: but I like Top and Rave, and I like everybody dude.
- 11:51Speaker 1: I like Clint, I like Cole, I like Jose, I
- 11:54Speaker 1: love all the guys. Man. I want Tower game to
- 11:57Speaker 1: come back. I want everybody to come back and just
- 11:59Speaker 1: have a game, a orgy together, man, BK, GJ. What's
- 12:04Speaker 1: up man, DFS, I'm gonna do a little bit with
- 12:07Speaker 1: Fantasy one specific player to not miss out on it. It
- 12:12Speaker 1: depends on what I'd have to dig into it, man,
- 12:14Speaker 1: because it depends on which players are. Like for DFS,
- 12:17Speaker 1: you got to look at who's undervalued, man, So like
- 12:20Speaker 1: that's I would have to really dig into it because
- 12:21Speaker 1: I'm I'm sorry, I haven't done him like enough research
- 12:24Speaker 1: to like answer that question right off the bat there.
- 12:27Speaker 1: But it's definitely about value though, so it's not necessarily
- 12:30Speaker 1: about like, oh, we think this player, like the top
- 12:33Speaker 1: player in the league is obviously gonna have like you know,
- 12:35Speaker 1: one player is gonna have a huge game obviously, but
- 12:38Speaker 1: like you have to pay like a huge price for
- 12:40Speaker 1: that player. So there's probably some player under the raidar
- 12:42Speaker 1: I mean, off the top of my head, I might
- 12:44Speaker 1: even say a guy who I have in my flex
- 12:46Speaker 1: position right now, R J. Harvey on Denver. You might
- 12:51Speaker 1: be able to get him at a decent price. I
- 12:52Speaker 1: think he's gonna see a decent amount of action. I mean,
- 12:54Speaker 1: his projections look pretty good this week. And if they're
- 12:57Speaker 1: gonna be winning the game, you know they're gonna be
- 12:59Speaker 1: having a lot of running back usage in that game.
- 13:02Speaker 1: He's on my regular fantasy team, my main fantasy team.
- 13:05Speaker 1: He's in my flex spot there, so maybe he might
- 13:08Speaker 1: be at a good price, so I could throw that
- 13:10Speaker 1: out there. Maybe let's talk about the NFL. Man, So
- 13:15Speaker 1: I am again. I'm gonna have three plays. Those will
- 13:18Speaker 1: be in the best bet segment. We'll go with the
- 13:21Speaker 1: breakdown here and I'll talk about every other NFL game. Man.
- 13:24Speaker 1: That's what I'm gonna do on the show. I'll give you.
- 13:26Speaker 1: Maybe it'll help you with your pick them pools. Hopefully
- 13:28Speaker 1: I do well my pick'm pools. Yes, sir, if you
- 13:31Speaker 1: want to hang out for the for the for the picks,
- 13:33Speaker 1: that's mostly what I do, and I do I do
- 13:36Speaker 1: do well and pick them, man. But I will tell
- 13:38Speaker 1: you that I keep an eye on the market. Like
- 13:40Speaker 1: this is a pregame dot com, this is their event center.
- 13:42Speaker 1: It's like the best free tool that I can find
- 13:45Speaker 1: for the market stuff because right now, all the other
- 13:47Speaker 1: tools they just cost way too much money. Man, And
- 13:49Speaker 1: don best I think is gone now. So like this
- 13:52Speaker 1: has been what I've always kind of used. But I
- 13:54Speaker 1: will give a little bit of a caveat that some
- 13:56Speaker 1: of my picks, like that I'm gonna not my actual
- 13:59Speaker 1: bet that I give out on the show or my
- 14:01Speaker 1: actual plays, but some like leans that I give out
- 14:04Speaker 1: and opinions that I give out might actually change by
- 14:06Speaker 1: like tomorrow, and I don't know if I'll wind up
- 14:08Speaker 1: mentioning those like tomorrow morning either. Those, so a few
- 14:11Speaker 1: of the picks might shift depending on like because I
- 14:13Speaker 1: have to watch like the late market movement, like right
- 14:16Speaker 1: before the games start, you know what I mean, like
- 14:17Speaker 1: right before one PM. Like I watch it like almost
- 14:20Speaker 1: right to the end if I can to make sure
- 14:22Speaker 1: that my picks are okay. And then I'm also in
- 14:25Speaker 1: like a money like I have the regular pick and pools,
- 14:27Speaker 1: like some of them are for a little bit of
- 14:28Speaker 1: money where you pick every game, but then I'm also
- 14:31Speaker 1: in a bigger money pool that's where you pick five
- 14:35Speaker 1: games every week. And for some reason, for this week,
- 14:37Speaker 1: they didn't let you pick Thursday and Friday, So because
- 14:40Speaker 1: I would have had Dallas as one of mine, but
- 14:43Speaker 1: I have to make other picks. I'm gonna give out
- 14:45Speaker 1: three plays here, those three are gonna be in my
- 14:47Speaker 1: pick five, and two of my other like stronger opinions
- 14:51Speaker 1: will be my other two, although I'm not sure which
- 14:53Speaker 1: games also be yet. Let's run through it, man. I'm
- 14:58Speaker 1: gonna go in order of the schedule here out of
- 15:00Speaker 1: a well, I don't know should I go order the
- 15:01Speaker 1: schedule or order of the betting board? And I will
- 15:04Speaker 1: go betting board? Why not? Although sometimes the betting board
- 15:08Speaker 1: will like shift because they'll be like some games that
- 15:10Speaker 1: get might get flexed in and out. But I think
- 15:12Speaker 1: it's all it's it's all in chronological worder. This time,
- 15:17Speaker 1: Steelers Jets is gonna be one of my plays, so
- 15:19Speaker 1: I'll hold off on that one for now. Dolphins Colts,
- 15:22Speaker 1: I will say this is close to being a play
- 15:24Speaker 1: for me. I like the Colts in this one. The
- 15:27Speaker 1: Colts have dropped from two and a half to one
- 15:29Speaker 1: or to pick them. Excuse me, I'm not just being
- 15:32Speaker 1: biased here. But again, I wouldn't put a whole lot
- 15:34Speaker 1: of stock into some of these line movements because these
- 15:37Speaker 1: lines have been out for so long. I think that
- 15:39Speaker 1: watching like what the market does and where it's settling
- 15:42Speaker 1: actually tells you more than what that initial move was
- 15:45Speaker 1: because it is possible that maybe it was a setup
- 15:48Speaker 1: or something like that, or maybe there are just conflicting
- 15:50Speaker 1: opinions and there are multiple like professional groups coming in
- 15:53Speaker 1: that actually like one group likes one side and one
- 15:55Speaker 1: group likes the other side Colts, and you know there
- 15:59Speaker 1: are other infrom like injury information comes in. You know,
- 16:02Speaker 1: at some point whatever, so personnel might change that can
- 16:05Speaker 1: affect those numbers. These numbers have been out for like months,
- 16:08Speaker 1: so that's kind of why some of these numbers have moved.
- 16:11Speaker 1: So the Colts, yes, they're down to a pick them,
- 16:13Speaker 1: but uh, seventy eight percent of tickets on the Dolphins
- 16:17Speaker 1: and sixty two percent cash on the Dolphins. The Dolphins
- 16:20Speaker 1: are going to be a public side here. Man. Everybody
- 16:22Speaker 1: thinks the Colts are terrible. They think the Colts are
- 16:24Speaker 1: one of the worst teams in football. Everybody likes the
- 16:27Speaker 1: Dolphins because they got Tua, they got Tyreek Hill, they
- 16:29Speaker 1: got a chan But I would dial it back on
- 16:32Speaker 1: the Dolphins a little bit. Man. Tua he played a
- 16:35Speaker 1: little bit in preseason, but he didn't play that much
- 16:37Speaker 1: in preseason. And I tend to like teams that actually
- 16:41Speaker 1: got like their starters more reps in preseason, because sometimes
- 16:44Speaker 1: if your starter is coming into cold into week one,
- 16:47Speaker 1: sometimes that can kind of affect you in a negative
- 16:50Speaker 1: way early on, especially like in the early part of
- 16:52Speaker 1: the game. Especially in the early part of the game,
- 16:54Speaker 1: I should say, but maybe even for the entire game.
- 16:57Speaker 1: So eh Chan really got like a limited amount of
- 17:00Speaker 1: playing time there in preseason as well, and Tyreek Hill
- 17:04Speaker 1: I don't think played at all, and I think it's
- 17:05Speaker 1: because both of those guys are actually dealing with injuries.
- 17:08Speaker 1: I guess they're supposed to play in this game, but
- 17:11Speaker 1: I'm just not sold on the Dolphins. Man. They seem
- 17:13Speaker 1: like a very fragile team, and I don't like their
- 17:16Speaker 1: coach either. Mike McDaniel, McDaniels, whatever his name is. He's
- 17:21Speaker 1: just a dufist dude. Like I love laughing at him
- 17:23Speaker 1: because he just says ridiculous shit and it's pretty funny.
- 17:26Speaker 1: At one point during preseason, I think he made some
- 17:29Speaker 1: reference to like wanting to kill himself or something like that,
- 17:32Speaker 1: so I'm like, Oh, he's one of my guys. He's suicidal. Yeah,
- 17:34Speaker 1: let's go. But I don't like it, man. I don't
- 17:37Speaker 1: think they're well coached. They seem to just fall short
- 17:39Speaker 1: of expectations every single year. They haven't done well against
- 17:43Speaker 1: the Colts recently either. The Dolphins have only beaten the
- 17:46Speaker 1: Colts one time in the last decade. I think, although,
- 17:49Speaker 1: of course the teams are different now, different personnel and whatever,
- 17:52Speaker 1: but I mean there is something to be said about that.
- 17:55Speaker 1: The Colts I think, have won four of their last
- 17:56Speaker 1: five games against the Dolphins, and one of them I
- 18:00Speaker 1: think I had as a bet that lost on my
- 18:03Speaker 1: show that willed up being a bullshit loss. I forget
- 18:06Speaker 1: exactly what it was. I think it was the Dolphins
- 18:08Speaker 1: plus the points or something, and they fell like just short.
- 18:13Speaker 1: The Colts they're I mean, they're gonna have some personnel
- 18:16Speaker 1: changes too, because they have Daniel Jones in there now.
- 18:18Speaker 1: But Daniel Jones played a decent amount of preseason. Man,
- 18:21Speaker 1: he did play quite a bit in preseason, partially because
- 18:24Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson got hurt. But it will be Jones. I mean,
- 18:27Speaker 1: Jones has a lot of years of NFL experience, man,
- 18:29Speaker 1: So yes, he's in a new system here. But Colts,
- 18:32Speaker 1: with who's their coach, Stichn whatever his name is, I
- 18:35Speaker 1: think he's actually the better coach here. I think the
- 18:37Speaker 1: Colts are a little bit under the Raidar. I think
- 18:40Speaker 1: they're being undervalued by the public here in I guess
- 18:42Speaker 1: by the market here. But yeah, Jones, I mean he's okay.
- 18:46Speaker 1: I mean he's won a playoff game before, he's got experience.
- 18:49Speaker 1: The way that his tenure with the Giants ended makes
- 18:52Speaker 1: him look worse than he is. I think the public
- 18:54Speaker 1: perception of him is just so low, like the public
- 18:57Speaker 1: is just gonna think the Colts can't do anything. Oh,
- 18:59Speaker 1: this offense for the they can't do anything against the Dolphins, right, Well,
- 19:03Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I think the Colts actually might
- 19:04Speaker 1: have the more balanced offense here. They have a good
- 19:07Speaker 1: rushing attack, which the Dolphins I know they have eight
- 19:10Speaker 1: cham but he's kind of more of like a dual
- 19:12Speaker 1: threat type of running back, pass catching running back. I mean,
- 19:15Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I think the Colts kind of
- 19:17Speaker 1: more of the grinding team. And I think the Colts
- 19:19Speaker 1: do actually have the better defense out of the two here.
- 19:22Speaker 1: And you know, sometimes like if you know, if all
- 19:25Speaker 1: else is equal, I will have default a leaning towards
- 19:28Speaker 1: the defense. So Ari, what's up man? Thanks for hanging out. No,
- 19:32Speaker 1: life has gotten a little bit worse. As you know,
- 19:34Speaker 1: the family dog died a look about a week and
- 19:38Speaker 1: a half ago and or almost two weeks ago. Now,
- 19:42Speaker 1: I don't know, man, it's it's not It hasn't been
- 19:44Speaker 1: going going any better really than my plays have been
- 19:47Speaker 1: getting a little bit better. Well, I was bad for
- 19:49Speaker 1: another like week or so. Players are just all up
- 19:52Speaker 1: and down, man, But I'm hot recently. Is Pittman gonna
- 19:55Speaker 1: have a good game? Yeah, man, Michael Pittman. I mean
- 19:58Speaker 1: he's like the number one wide receiver on the Colts, right.
- 20:00Speaker 1: I think he's a good target for Daniel Jones man
- 20:03Speaker 1: and Daniel Jones. Again, I mean that should help out
- 20:07Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, that he has some good wide receiver targets
- 20:09Speaker 1: like that. Yeah, I mean I do think he will
- 20:11Speaker 1: have a good game. Miami's defense is bad, dude, So
- 20:15Speaker 1: I don't see that really changing. So again, I don't
- 20:17Speaker 1: really have a whole lot else to say about that.
- 20:18Speaker 1: But week one we don't get a lot of situational
- 20:22Speaker 1: angles to talk about, man. So that's the thing with
- 20:24Speaker 1: week one. It's kind of difficult to to do what
- 20:27Speaker 1: I do because I do like situational spots hand, you know,
- 20:30Speaker 1: like excuse me sandwich spots and stuff like that, like
- 20:33Speaker 1: who did this team play last week? Who's this team
- 20:35Speaker 1: playing next? You know, hopefully I can get through this. Man,
- 20:39Speaker 1: I've only handicapped one games, or we'll only talked about
- 20:41Speaker 1: one game so far. We have Panthers Jaguars, Jaguars up
- 20:45Speaker 1: from three to three and a half with juice here.
- 20:47Speaker 1: Jaguars are the public team. I mean, nobody really has
- 20:50Speaker 1: any trust in the Panthers here. Jaguars seventy two tickets
- 20:54Speaker 1: eighty cash on them though, And again I don't really
- 20:57Speaker 1: talk about totals. I only really do totals in Major
- 20:59Speaker 1: League base while I do mostly like sides and everything else.
- 21:02Speaker 1: So at least that will kind of abbreviate the show
- 21:05Speaker 1: a bit. If I really have a strong opinion on
- 21:07Speaker 1: a total, I might, you know, talk about it. But
- 21:09Speaker 1: other than that, I don't really. But yeah, the Jags,
- 21:12Speaker 1: even though their public it looks like the money is
- 21:14Speaker 1: coming in on the Jags as well. I find it
- 21:17Speaker 1: hard to really kind of disagree with with that though,
- 21:20Speaker 1: even though I'm a guy that likes to fade the public,
- 21:22Speaker 1: I do think the Panthers are getting undervalued by the public.
- 21:26Speaker 1: I think the Panthers' offense is going to take another
- 21:28Speaker 1: step forward. Bryce Young was able to start playing better
- 21:31Speaker 1: in the second half last year. He's not that bad.
- 21:33Speaker 1: They have some really talented young wide receivers there with Tillman.
- 21:37Speaker 1: Is that his name? No, Milton McMillan. McMillan, Why did
- 21:42Speaker 1: I say Tilman McMillan is. I think he's gonna be
- 21:45Speaker 1: a really good wide receiver. They got him. They did
- 21:48Speaker 1: lose Themelan he got traded back to the to the Vikings.
- 21:51Speaker 1: But the Panthers do have this young cor of wide
- 21:54Speaker 1: receivers and they got Chubb A. Hubbard Chewba Bubard as
- 21:57Speaker 1: running back. So I think they're gonna be pretty good offensively. Actually,
- 22:02Speaker 1: to be honest, I think they're gonna be at least
- 22:04Speaker 1: a decent offense. But the Panthers defense doesn't look like
- 22:07Speaker 1: it's gonna be good. So that's the problem. Here are
- 22:09Speaker 1: the Jags they should improve man, I mean, Trevor Lawrence
- 22:13Speaker 1: just hasn't been healthy. That's the thing. It's Kenny stay healthy.
- 22:16Speaker 1: He is there right now, he will be playing, but
- 22:18Speaker 1: how long can he stay healthy. If Trevor Lawrence can
- 22:20Speaker 1: stay healthy, this Jags offense has got some weapons. Man,
- 22:24Speaker 1: they got some young running backs who are actually pretty good.
- 22:26Speaker 1: That might they might turn out to have a pretty
- 22:28Speaker 1: good rushing attack actually due to some of these young
- 22:31Speaker 1: guys they have there. They got of course, Brian Johnson
- 22:35Speaker 1: is his name? Why? Or Brian? Is it Johnson or Robinson?
- 22:38Speaker 1: I get everybody's fucking name wrong now, man, whatever the
- 22:40Speaker 1: fuck his name is that wide receiver they Brian Thomas? Right? Thomas? Why?
- 22:45Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, some generic name whatever? Whoever? The fucking
- 22:48Speaker 1: wide receiver is they drafted last year? He's good? Uh,
- 22:51Speaker 1: they got They drafted Travis Hunter as well, who I
- 22:56Speaker 1: guess they're still trying to play him on both sides
- 22:58Speaker 1: of the ball, I guess. But I think they could
- 22:59Speaker 1: have some years talent on this offense, man, Jaguars, Like,
- 23:03Speaker 1: this is an offense. It probably is not to be overlooked.
- 23:05Speaker 1: And I do think they have the better defense over
- 23:07Speaker 1: the Panthers, So I don't really disagree with the public
- 23:09Speaker 1: side and this one, it looks like the professional money
- 23:12Speaker 1: is kind of coming in that way too. Not a
- 23:13Speaker 1: strong opinion on that one, but slightly into the Jags
- 23:17Speaker 1: for me in that one. Giants and Washington Redskins. I'm
- 23:20Speaker 1: gonna have a play on that one too. You guys
- 23:22Speaker 1: are not gonna like these plays. I'll just tell you
- 23:24Speaker 1: that right now, so you probably know what I'm doing
- 23:26Speaker 1: in these games. Now, Bengals, Browns this one. I mean, obviously,
- 23:32Speaker 1: this is a divisional matchup, and I will say that
- 23:34Speaker 1: in Week one. Divisional underdogs do well in Week one, man,
- 23:38Speaker 1: especially home underdogs. So home underdogs in over the last
- 23:43Speaker 1: couple decades, home underdogs in divisional games, specifically in Week one,
- 23:48Speaker 1: have covered the spread I think like seventy percent of
- 23:51Speaker 1: the time, and divisional underdogs in general have covered like
- 23:55Speaker 1: sixty percent of the time. And the divisional dogs are
- 23:57Speaker 1: already two and zero to start this season, which does
- 24:00Speaker 1: that there should be some you know, probably like law
- 24:03Speaker 1: of averages says they're not all gonna cover. But we
- 24:05Speaker 1: did get Dallas and the Chargers both covered in their
- 24:09Speaker 1: divisional games as underdogs, and I got both those right
- 24:13Speaker 1: on my show, so hey. But in ESPN's Pick Them,
- 24:18Speaker 1: the Eagles were only laying six and a half, so
- 24:20Speaker 1: I couldn't take the points with Dallas through that key number.
- 24:23Speaker 1: I was like, fuck you, man. I did still take
- 24:25Speaker 1: the Chargers plus two and a half and pick them though,
- 24:27Speaker 1: so at least I got that one right, even though
- 24:29Speaker 1: I wasn't on the right side of that key number.
- 24:31Speaker 1: That one, I was like two and a half to three.
- 24:34Speaker 1: Just seems a little bit different to me for whatever reason,
- 24:38Speaker 1: I'm just a little bit more apt to go with
- 24:41Speaker 1: that because it's like so close to a pick them
- 24:43Speaker 1: price almost that it's like, if you're taking that underdog,
- 24:46Speaker 1: you're basically saying they're gonna win the game. So it
- 24:48Speaker 1: feels different to me. But anyway, Bengals Browns Bengals, I
- 24:52Speaker 1: don't know when they were ever two and a half
- 24:53Speaker 1: point underdog. I don't think they ever were. They're a
- 24:55Speaker 1: five point favorite here. I think they were a bit
- 24:57Speaker 1: higher than that. I think they were five and a
- 24:59Speaker 1: half six and O would down to five. They're public obviously,
- 25:02Speaker 1: seventy percent tickets, only seventy five percent of the cash.
- 25:05Speaker 1: You know, the public is only gonna come in on
- 25:07Speaker 1: the Bengals here. The Browns, they're probably one of the
- 25:10Speaker 1: worst teams in football. Bengals. We know, we know how
- 25:13Speaker 1: good their offense is. They have Joe Barrow, Jamar Chase,
- 25:17Speaker 1: they got all the guys are Back, Higgins, Chase Brown,
- 25:20Speaker 1: They're all there. It's gonna be one of the best
- 25:22Speaker 1: offenses in football unless they deal unless they have injuries
- 25:25Speaker 1: that they're dealing with again. Yeah, Bengals. They still have
- 25:28Speaker 1: a bad defense though, and you know, me, man better
- 25:32Speaker 1: defense at home as an underdog, you know, getting points there.
- 25:36Speaker 1: It's like, I think I would have to lean that
- 25:39Speaker 1: way to the Browns. Man. I'm not gonna make it
- 25:41Speaker 1: a play, but it just seems like the public's is
- 25:44Speaker 1: never gonna want to take the Browns here. Man. They
- 25:47Speaker 1: just won't think it could happen. Yeah, the Bengals have
- 25:49Speaker 1: had the Browns number recently. The Browns have not beaten
- 25:52Speaker 1: the Bengals since twenty twenty three. I think. I think
- 25:54Speaker 1: the Bengals have won four or five games in a
- 25:57Speaker 1: row against the Browns. But the Browns they still have
- 26:00Speaker 1: a decent defense, I think. I mean, they still have
- 26:02Speaker 1: Miles Garrett there. I'm pretty sure they're gonna show up
- 26:05Speaker 1: and at least try to win this game. It's a
- 26:06Speaker 1: divisional game. We know the Bengals start slow. That's the
- 26:09Speaker 1: other problem. And everybody's talking about it now because the
- 26:12Speaker 1: Bengals have lost their first game I think three seasons
- 26:15Speaker 1: in a row, they've only won one week one game
- 26:17Speaker 1: ever with Joe Burrow, I'm pretty sure. So everybody's talking
- 26:19Speaker 1: about it, like what the fuck is going on here?
- 26:22Speaker 1: And maybe it'll be different because I know the Bengals
- 26:24Speaker 1: haven't really been focused on that this year. So the
- 26:26Speaker 1: Bengals they decided to play Joe Burrow in preseason and
- 26:30Speaker 1: try to get him ready, which they hadn't done in
- 26:33Speaker 1: the previous season, so he should be more ready this time.
- 26:36Speaker 1: And you remember last year. I think he was dealing
- 26:38Speaker 1: with an injury last year, and I think one of
- 26:40Speaker 1: their wide receivers was like holding out until the last minute.
- 26:44Speaker 1: It might have been Chase actually I'm not even sure,
- 26:46Speaker 1: but they had like some issues going on there where
- 26:49Speaker 1: they just couldn't get that, Like they couldn't hit the
- 26:52Speaker 1: ground running with the Bengals last year, and they wound
- 26:54Speaker 1: up losing that game outright at home to the Patriots,
- 26:57Speaker 1: which was really ridiculous. So obviously the bang are really
- 27:00Speaker 1: focusing on we're not gonna lose the first game this time,
- 27:03Speaker 1: but we don't really need them to lose the game outright.
- 27:05Speaker 1: If we take the Browns plus the points here man,
- 27:08Speaker 1: you only need the Browns to cover, and again it
- 27:10Speaker 1: is the better defense getting points. It looks almost impossible
- 27:14Speaker 1: for that to happen because everybody knows the Bengals have
- 27:16Speaker 1: the way better offense. The Browns. I mean, maybe their
- 27:21Speaker 1: offense won't be totally inapt because last year, you remember,
- 27:23Speaker 1: their quarterback situation was a disaster, right because they had
- 27:27Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson. He was getting all the rubbing tugs. You know,
- 27:30Speaker 1: he couldn't really do anything. They had James Winston. I
- 27:32Speaker 1: think they should have stuck with Jameis Winston man because
- 27:35Speaker 1: he is a talent. He just throws too many interceptions.
- 27:38Speaker 1: But he comes out there, he can throw, he can
- 27:40Speaker 1: light you up, he can get touchdowns. Their offense looked
- 27:43Speaker 1: fairly good when he was out there, and then they're like, nah,
- 27:45Speaker 1: he's throwing too many interceptions. Let's go with dtr or
- 27:48Speaker 1: whatever his name is, Dorian Thompson Robinson. Terrible, terrible quarterback Brown's.
- 27:54Speaker 1: I mean, they had no quarterback continuity, man, But now
- 27:57Speaker 1: they might because they brought back Joe flat and Joe
- 28:00Speaker 1: Flacco was the quarterback who got them to the playoffs
- 28:03Speaker 1: a couple of years ago. Playoffs, So they might actually
- 28:07Speaker 1: be better with Joe Flacco quarterback. Man. You know Flacco,
- 28:11Speaker 1: he's used to playing again these big games in this division, man,
- 28:13Speaker 1: because he was on the Ravens whatever, he was on
- 28:15Speaker 1: this Browns team two years ago or whatever, so he's
- 28:18Speaker 1: familiar with this h So that might be a little
- 28:21Speaker 1: bit better for the Browns. So I would slightly lead
- 28:23Speaker 1: to the Browns in that game. Man. It's the first game,
- 28:25Speaker 1: it's the home opener, so you know the crowd's gonna
- 28:28Speaker 1: show up for that one the Dog Pound before the
- 28:31Speaker 1: Browns season is completely over, maybe they'll actually show up
- 28:34Speaker 1: for a big game like this, so they might actually
- 28:36Speaker 1: have a decent crowd there for that one. A Raiders Patriots.
- 28:41Speaker 1: This is one of the hardest games for me to
- 28:42Speaker 1: figure out. Patriots down from seven to two and a half.
- 28:45Speaker 1: They were never a seven point favorite, though. I don't
- 28:47Speaker 1: think that's just ridiculous. I don't think so two and
- 28:50Speaker 1: a half point favorites. Where they are, it looks like
- 28:51Speaker 1: you might be able to get three if you do
- 28:53Speaker 1: like the Raiders. Fifty tickets fifty five percent of the
- 28:56Speaker 1: cash on the Raiders. I kind of lead to the
- 28:59Speaker 1: Raiders here, maybe because I think the perception here is that,
- 29:03Speaker 1: like the Patriots are, they're the more hyped team coming
- 29:06Speaker 1: into the season. Man, it's oh, it's Drake May. He
- 29:08Speaker 1: got a bunch of games under his belt last year.
- 29:10Speaker 1: He's gonna take a step forward. You know. I don't
- 29:12Speaker 1: really disagree with that. But the Patriots, they just seem
- 29:15Speaker 1: to be too over hyped right now. They brought in
- 29:17Speaker 1: Stepan Diggs, who knows how good he's gonna be at
- 29:19Speaker 1: this point. They have a young running back who does
- 29:22Speaker 1: look like he's gonna be good, Henderson I think is
- 29:24Speaker 1: his name. He looks like he will be good. But
- 29:26Speaker 1: the Patriots a lot of growing pains, I think still
- 29:30Speaker 1: for the Patriots here, at least early on in the season. Man.
- 29:33Speaker 1: For the Raiders, yeah, I know they have to fly
- 29:34Speaker 1: out to the East Coast, but I think that's a
- 29:36Speaker 1: little bit over It's kind of an overstated thing like, oh,
- 29:39Speaker 1: this specific coast team, your Vegas team now has to
- 29:42Speaker 1: go to the East Coast and play an early game
- 29:44Speaker 1: that's at ten am their time. Yeah. I mean that's
- 29:48Speaker 1: a thing, but that's not really something that hampers a
- 29:51Speaker 1: team that much. I always talk about this and East
- 29:54Speaker 1: Coast team having to go to the West Coast and
- 29:56Speaker 1: play a really late night game, so it's like it
- 29:58Speaker 1: ends like midnight on their biological clock. That's actually way
- 30:02Speaker 1: worse than the West Coast team going east. And in
- 30:05Speaker 1: this case, it's the first game of the season, so
- 30:07Speaker 1: the Raiders don't really have to worry about having played
- 30:09Speaker 1: last week, so they're not having to travel, you know
- 30:11Speaker 1: what I mean, So they could travel early, adjust to
- 30:13Speaker 1: the time zone, so I think in week one it's
- 30:15Speaker 1: even less of a factor, so I don't think you
- 30:17Speaker 1: should be too concerned about that. We do have two
- 30:20Speaker 1: new coaches in this game, so two new systems being implemented,
- 30:24Speaker 1: so both offenses could kind of struggle early in this game.
- 30:27Speaker 1: He got Pete Carroll for the Raiders. Raiders have a
- 30:30Speaker 1: new QB as well, of course, with Gino Smith, although
- 30:32Speaker 1: he's definitely an experienced quarterback though, so Smith, I mean,
- 30:35Speaker 1: he should be ready to hit the ground running, like
- 30:37Speaker 1: he's not going to be intimidated. Obviously, he's played on
- 30:40Speaker 1: the road against the Patriots before, so he'll be fine. O.
- 30:44Speaker 1: The Raiders do have genty there, so they have all
- 30:46Speaker 1: these new pieces. Might take a little while for their
- 30:49Speaker 1: chemistry to get going though, A gent should be pretty good.
- 30:52Speaker 1: I don't know. He might be a little bit overhyped though,
- 30:54Speaker 1: but I think he will be fairly good. There was
- 30:57Speaker 1: that issue with the Raiders. They had one guy that
- 30:59Speaker 1: I think just like what it's somebody that got kicked
- 31:02Speaker 1: off the team or something that the Raiders had. I
- 31:03Speaker 1: don't remember that, so there was a little bit of
- 31:05Speaker 1: turmoil in preseason. But still I think they might be
- 31:09Speaker 1: ready to go here man and Patriots, they're gonna Mike Vrabel.
- 31:12Speaker 1: He's a good coach as well. He's implementing a new
- 31:14Speaker 1: system here as well. But I think the Raiders are
- 31:16Speaker 1: actually more equipped to hit the ground running here because
- 31:19Speaker 1: Gino Smith had Pete Carroll as his coach and he
- 31:22Speaker 1: was at Seattle, so remember that. So I think that
- 31:24Speaker 1: might be the edge that the Raiders have in this
- 31:27Speaker 1: game that might actually allow them to cover this number. Man.
- 31:30Speaker 1: So Carolyn Smith actually do have that like chemistry already,
- 31:34Speaker 1: that built in familiarity with each other that the Patriots
- 31:38Speaker 1: don't really have. With Vrabel coming in, Drake may has
- 31:41Speaker 1: to get used to that new system. So yeah, again,
- 31:44Speaker 1: I think the Raiders, with that experience and that familiarity there.
- 31:47Speaker 1: I think have an edge for that reason, So slight
- 31:50Speaker 1: lean to the Raiders in that game. Charles, what's up? Man?
- 31:53Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. We got Cardinals, Saints to Cardinals.
- 31:58Speaker 1: There were never a pick the man, I don't know
- 31:59Speaker 1: what the fuck was the up plus six and a
- 32:01Speaker 1: half seventy eight percent of tickets, only sixty percent of
- 32:04Speaker 1: the cash man. Survivor is going to be really difficult
- 32:07Speaker 1: this week. It's really crazy, man Like, who the fuck
- 32:11Speaker 1: are we gonna take it? Survivor? Man, I didn't take
- 32:14Speaker 1: the Eagles. The Broncos are the most picked, like, they're
- 32:18Speaker 1: the most heavily played Survivor pick. So if you want
- 32:21Speaker 1: to get some survivor knowledge there, you usually don't want
- 32:23Speaker 1: to pick the team that everybody's picking, because there's that
- 32:27Speaker 1: chance that they go down, and if they go down,
- 32:29Speaker 1: that's way more beneficial to you, man Like, So you
- 32:31Speaker 1: don't really want to pick who everybody else is picking,
- 32:34Speaker 1: even if they are like the biggest favor or whatever.
- 32:36Speaker 1: You know what I mean. You want to try to
- 32:38Speaker 1: not pick the most heavily picked team, but you also
- 32:40Speaker 1: want to make sure you kind of want to pick
- 32:42Speaker 1: a team that doesn't have a whole lot of future value,
- 32:44Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So it's really difficult. So
- 32:47Speaker 1: my thinking right now is that I'm gonna be on
- 32:48Speaker 1: the Cardinals here because I really don't see them losing
- 32:50Speaker 1: this game. But I'm a little bit worried about that
- 32:53Speaker 1: they're being picked a little bit less and they're I
- 32:55Speaker 1: don't think they're that good, and they don't really have
- 32:58Speaker 1: too many other Survivor where the games this year seventy
- 33:01Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets, only sixty percent of the cash
- 33:03Speaker 1: on the Cardinals though, so they are public. You could
- 33:06Speaker 1: pick the Bengals, but in the divisional road game, that
- 33:09Speaker 1: seems real dicey, and the Bengals don't really have too
- 33:12Speaker 1: many other good games for themselves this season either that
- 33:15Speaker 1: are like Survivor worthy. But anyway, Cardinals Saints. Cardinals are
- 33:18Speaker 1: the better team, and I'm just not sure that I
- 33:21Speaker 1: really see them losing this game. I mean, lang six
- 33:23Speaker 1: and a half. Yeah, I mean, that's a little bit
- 33:26Speaker 1: of a dicey proposition. I might slightly lean into taking
- 33:29Speaker 1: the points with the Saints as far as playing the
- 33:32Speaker 1: points spread, but this is one of the ones that
- 33:33Speaker 1: I have the least gauge on me because what the
- 33:35Speaker 1: fuck are the Saints gonna do, Like, Yeah, they do
- 33:38Speaker 1: still have a couple of good, like talent like talented
- 33:41Speaker 1: players on their offense. Man, they do still have Alvin
- 33:43Speaker 1: Kamara there, they still have Olavan I'm pretty sure, a
- 33:46Speaker 1: wide receiver, and they've had some injuries that they've had
- 33:48Speaker 1: to deal with the last couple of years. So the Saints,
- 33:50Speaker 1: they started off hot with those players last year on offense,
- 33:53Speaker 1: they won two or three games out of the gate,
- 33:55Speaker 1: and then they fell completely apart they were dealing with injuries.
- 33:59Speaker 1: They're probably like one of the worst teams in the
- 34:01Speaker 1: league though, to be honest, but maybe they're not quite
- 34:05Speaker 1: as bad as people think as far as like they
- 34:07Speaker 1: shouldn't be getting this many points at home, maybe in
- 34:10Speaker 1: their home opener. A lot of it's gonna depend on
- 34:12Speaker 1: the quarterback. Man. The Saints are gonna be going with
- 34:14Speaker 1: Spencer Rattler, the guy who looks like now Bino Patrick
- 34:18Speaker 1: Mahomes or something like that. Spencer Rattler, I mean, I
- 34:24Speaker 1: don't think he's good, but he at least has played
- 34:26Speaker 1: in the NFL before, so at least he has experience.
- 34:29Speaker 1: He has some NFL stars. I think that was probably
- 34:31Speaker 1: the deciding factor to go with him over Shaw, who
- 34:34Speaker 1: they drafted out of Louisville. We'll see what they do.
- 34:37Speaker 1: You know, as the season progresses, they might switch quarterbacks,
- 34:40Speaker 1: but they do have at least a guy that has
- 34:42Speaker 1: experience in this game. But yeah, the Cardinals they have
- 34:44Speaker 1: experience too. They got Kyler Murray playing, they got Connor
- 34:49Speaker 1: at running back, who's one of my fantasy running backs
- 34:51Speaker 1: on my main team by the way, Marvin Harrison junior
- 34:54Speaker 1: wide receiver. It's just the Cardinals. They have all this talent,
- 34:57Speaker 1: but it seems like it just never pans out, man.
- 35:00Speaker 1: So I don't really know what to do with this game,
- 35:03Speaker 1: to be honest. I mean, what to do with this
- 35:05Speaker 1: game is not put your money on it. I would say,
- 35:08Speaker 1: if I'm gonna use the Cardinals a survivor, I'm gonna
- 35:11Speaker 1: pray basically. I mean, the Cardinals should have the better
- 35:16Speaker 1: offices because they have the better quarterback. But it worries me, man,
- 35:18Speaker 1: because the Cardinals they've had these guys for years now
- 35:21Speaker 1: and it's never really panned out for them. So they've
- 35:23Speaker 1: been a disappointment almost every year. It's just it worries me.
- 35:27Speaker 1: Will they be able to win if they don't a
- 35:28Speaker 1: male cheerleaders. I don't know, skip it. We'll talk about
- 35:31Speaker 1: the male cheerleaders. Well, CAROLINEA and we already talked about them.
- 35:34Speaker 1: Their male cheerleader quit, so that was good. They had
- 35:36Speaker 1: a dude dressing up as a woman who was this
- 35:39Speaker 1: bald black dude. He quit. So we're winning, man, we're winning. Oh.
- 35:44Speaker 1: By the way, I was gonna say, Raiders Patriots an
- 35:47Speaker 1: under might be worth a look in that game. The
- 35:48Speaker 1: total kind of right there, kind of a mid level
- 35:51Speaker 1: like total there at forty four for an NFL game,
- 35:54Speaker 1: but fifty eight percent of tickets on the over, sixty
- 35:56Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming in on the under. I
- 35:58Speaker 1: think people might have a tendency to want to go
- 36:00Speaker 1: in that game. Oh it's Gino Smith against Drake may whatever.
- 36:04Speaker 1: But I think, you know, just the fact that the
- 36:05Speaker 1: coaches are new there and whatever. I think you'd see
- 36:07Speaker 1: the offenses maybe get off to a slow start in
- 36:09Speaker 1: that one. So there's a little bit of a total
- 36:13Speaker 1: lean for it, and the money looks like it at
- 36:14Speaker 1: least agree agrees with that. So Raiders Patriots could be
- 36:17Speaker 1: an under potentially, excuse me, potentially, or maybe even an
- 36:21Speaker 1: under first half while the offenses haven't gotten going yet.
- 36:26Speaker 1: I haven't gotten themselves going yet, I should say. But anyway, yeah,
- 36:30Speaker 1: I mean I guess if you're forced me to pick
- 36:32Speaker 1: Cardinals Saints, I guess I would go with what the
- 36:34Speaker 1: market read is here for now and take the points
- 36:37Speaker 1: with the Saints. But man, that is bad. That is
- 36:39Speaker 1: ugly A Bucks Falcons. I like the Falcons in this one,
- 36:43Speaker 1: not enough to give it out as a play really,
- 36:45Speaker 1: but there's some professional money on the Falcons. I mean
- 36:48Speaker 1: you kind of missed the boat on them though, because
- 36:49Speaker 1: they were plus two two and a half underdog and
- 36:52Speaker 1: now they're one point favorite. I know it is still
- 36:54Speaker 1: kind of a pick them price. I mean, if you
- 36:56Speaker 1: find Falcons maybe like a money line price, you could
- 36:59Speaker 1: still maybe do that. I mean you're still basically just
- 37:01Speaker 1: saying who's gonna win the game, So it might still
- 37:03Speaker 1: be worth maybe a look on the Falcons, But that
- 37:06Speaker 1: money has moved towards them. The Bucks have the public
- 37:08Speaker 1: action sixty three percent of tickets on them, fifty eight
- 37:11Speaker 1: percent of cash coming in on Atlanta. I mean, Tampa
- 37:15Speaker 1: has been the team in this division for years now, right,
- 37:18Speaker 1: I mean they had Tom Brady for a while and
- 37:20Speaker 1: then it kind of just transitioned over. They trans themselves
- 37:24Speaker 1: and now they have Baker Mayfield there, and I've never
- 37:26Speaker 1: been a Baker Mayfield guy, Like, I don't really think
- 37:28Speaker 1: he's that good, but I think the system is good
- 37:32Speaker 1: for him there. They got Todd Bowles is still there
- 37:34Speaker 1: as a coach, right, so they do have continuity. They
- 37:36Speaker 1: do have a lot of talent. I mean the they
- 37:38Speaker 1: have Irving, a running back I think still is a
- 37:40Speaker 1: talented young running back. They've still got Mike Evans, although
- 37:43Speaker 1: he's getting old and he's injury prone. Godwin at wide receiver.
- 37:47Speaker 1: He's been injured though, so I don't know if Godwin's
- 37:49Speaker 1: gonna be ready to go or not. But they do
- 37:51Speaker 1: have a bunch of talent on offense, that's for sure,
- 37:53Speaker 1: and that's why the public is on Tampa. I think
- 37:56Speaker 1: you can worry about their secondary a little bit done.
- 37:59Speaker 1: That might be why that might be, you know the
- 38:03Speaker 1: thing that the Falcons need here in this first game,
- 38:05Speaker 1: because the Falcons are going with Michael Pennix Junior at quarterback. Now,
- 38:08Speaker 1: Michael Penix Junior, I saw one I don't know one
- 38:14Speaker 1: news out the one media like whatever, some TV station, whatever,
- 38:18Speaker 1: it was had an interview with him and they put
- 38:21Speaker 1: his name up on the screen as Michael Penis Junior
- 38:24Speaker 1: micro Penis micro Penis Junior. It's an even smaller micro Penis.
- 38:29Speaker 1: I don't know, but I actually like Pennix. I actually
- 38:31Speaker 1: think he's gonna be pretty good if my quarterback analysis
- 38:35Speaker 1: skills are still on, we'll see. But he played a
- 38:38Speaker 1: little bit last year. They got him in there because
- 38:39Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. If you watched the Netflix Quarterback series, which
- 38:44Speaker 1: has had Kirk Cousins in both seasons of it, it
- 38:47Speaker 1: was it's sad man because I like Kirk Cousins. He's
- 38:50Speaker 1: a family man. I like him, but he was just
- 38:53Speaker 1: dealing with so many injuries last year and he's getting
- 38:55Speaker 1: so old. I hope that he comes back and actually
- 38:58Speaker 1: is able to play. He's still on the phone. He's
- 39:00Speaker 1: their backup, so he's helping Michael Penix out. So Penix
- 39:04Speaker 1: can study under a veteran like Kirk Cousins, which is
- 39:07Speaker 1: probably good for Penix, but I actually a kind of
- 39:10Speaker 1: hoping the Cousins winds up on a different team and
- 39:12Speaker 1: gets a shot to be a starter again. Yeah, yeah,
- 39:15Speaker 1: I know. Michael Penix Junior baby. But I think Penix
- 39:19Speaker 1: will be good. He's got a good situation, you know,
- 39:21Speaker 1: studying under a Cousins. He played last year for I
- 39:24Speaker 1: think three games maybe at the end of the season,
- 39:27Speaker 1: so he's not having to get into this game cold
- 39:29Speaker 1: at least, So those are all good things. The Falcons,
- 39:32Speaker 1: they got talent on this offense. Man. People overlook this.
- 39:35Speaker 1: People talk about all the guys that the Buccaneers have,
- 39:38Speaker 1: But the Falcons they got Bejon Robinson running back, he's good,
- 39:41Speaker 1: Drake London really good wide receiver. They got some other
- 39:44Speaker 1: good wide receivers there too. This Falcons offense, I think
- 39:47Speaker 1: they could definitely score against this Bucks defense. Man Again,
- 39:52Speaker 1: the Bucks, I think their defense, their weakness is probably
- 39:54Speaker 1: gonna continue to be their secondary, would be my guest.
- 39:57Speaker 1: So that we'll see how the season plays out. But
- 39:59Speaker 1: I think that could have help, you know, a young
- 40:01Speaker 1: guy like Pennix, like take the load off him a
- 40:03Speaker 1: little bit and he might be able to throw the ball.
- 40:06Speaker 1: Though you could argue that, well, if the Bucks stop
- 40:08Speaker 1: the run, that's gonna force Penix to have to pass.
- 40:11Speaker 1: I could see that argument too. This one has not
- 40:14Speaker 1: made my card. I don't know if it's gonna make
- 40:15Speaker 1: my pick five or not. But this is one of
- 40:18Speaker 1: my stronger opinions, I will say, so the games that
- 40:22Speaker 1: I have stronger opinions on so far that are not
- 40:24Speaker 1: the plays that I'm gonna give out. We're Colts and
- 40:27Speaker 1: Falcons and we're the last of the one pm Eastern slate.
- 40:34Speaker 1: Here we got oh no, that was the last one.
- 40:37Speaker 1: Excuse me, four pm slate. Now we got Titans, Broncos, Broncos.
- 40:42Speaker 1: There are never a pick them. Man. I don't know
- 40:43Speaker 1: what the fuck that was some of these some of
- 40:45Speaker 1: this data I think is just wrong. But the Broncos
- 40:48Speaker 1: are nine point favorite their public as well, ninety one
- 40:51Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only eighty percent of the cash on
- 40:53Speaker 1: the Broncos. I would lean to taking the points with
- 40:56Speaker 1: the Titans, but I think it is a little bit dicey, man.
- 40:59Speaker 1: I mean, BRONC goes there, I think under the third
- 41:02Speaker 1: year under Sean Payton now, so they kind of gotten
- 41:05Speaker 1: used to that. They're getting their rhythm there with him.
- 41:08Speaker 1: It's gonna be their second year with bon Knicks. But
- 41:09Speaker 1: the thing about these second year quarterbacks, I think they
- 41:13Speaker 1: take a step back, man, Like if they kind of
- 41:15Speaker 1: explode onto the scene, and they have a really good
- 41:18Speaker 1: rookie season. I actually think they kind of have a
- 41:21Speaker 1: tendency to have a sophomore slump because I think part
- 41:23Speaker 1: of the reason why they look so good their first
- 41:26Speaker 1: season is that the league isn't used to them yet.
- 41:29Speaker 1: The league doesn't know what that offense is gonna do yet.
- 41:32Speaker 1: And now you have an entire year of game film, like, oh,
- 41:34Speaker 1: this is what the Broncos offense is gonna look like,
- 41:36Speaker 1: So the league actually has you know, now they're actually
- 41:39Speaker 1: able to adjust to it, and they have more game
- 41:41Speaker 1: film to figure it out and be like, oh, this
- 41:43Speaker 1: is how we can defend against this now. So I
- 41:45Speaker 1: actually think that Nicks might take a little bit of
- 41:47Speaker 1: a step back here. I don't think the Broncos are bad.
- 41:50Speaker 1: I mean, I think they're they're gonna be in contention
- 41:52Speaker 1: for a playoff spot, but my opinion is that they're
- 41:54Speaker 1: actually gonna be missing the playoffs this year. I don't
- 41:58Speaker 1: think they're gonna lose this game though. I Mean, it's Titans.
- 42:00Speaker 1: We know they have cam Ward there and this is
- 42:03Speaker 1: a tough tough assignment for him, meant to have to
- 42:06Speaker 1: play against a pretty good Broncos depense. In high elevation
- 42:10Speaker 1: on the road at mile high for his first start.
- 42:13Speaker 1: That is difficult. That is a difficult ask. I think
- 42:16Speaker 1: Ward will be a pretty solid quarterback, but this, I
- 42:20Speaker 1: mean this game might be a little bit difficult for him.
- 42:22Speaker 1: Can the Titans cover the nine? I think they can.
- 42:26Speaker 1: I mean, I'm kind of seeing this as more of
- 42:28Speaker 1: a lower scoring game, which you kind of see here
- 42:30Speaker 1: the total at forty two and a half, fifty tickets,
- 42:33Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of catch on the under excuse me.
- 42:35Speaker 1: And of course if it's a lower total, you want
- 42:37Speaker 1: to look more towards taking the points because each point
- 42:40Speaker 1: is gonna be worth more. Both of these teams can
- 42:43Speaker 1: play depfense man. The Broncos have a good defense. Titans
- 42:46Speaker 1: also have a decent defense man. That's kind of their system.
- 42:50Speaker 1: I think their coach is in his second year there,
- 42:52Speaker 1: and I forget who he even is, uh, but you
- 42:54Speaker 1: know there is gonna be There are still some growing
- 42:57Speaker 1: pains there with the Titans. For sure. They got to
- 42:58Speaker 1: get used to Ward being there. But the Titans do
- 43:00Speaker 1: have the same running back room there and whatever, And dude,
- 43:03Speaker 1: I mean the Titans they lost a lot of close
- 43:05Speaker 1: games last year. Amend I mean their quarterback play was
- 43:08Speaker 1: really bad last year with what the hell was their
- 43:11Speaker 1: quarterback's name was, throwing all the pick sixes. Will Levis, Yeah,
- 43:15Speaker 1: I mean just an unfortunate situation, man. So Will Levis,
- 43:19Speaker 1: I mean his turnover tendency just really really hurt the Titans. Man.
- 43:22Speaker 1: So they had some games they probably should have won
- 43:24Speaker 1: that they lost and they kind of got screwed by
- 43:27Speaker 1: the refs in like that game against the Vikings or whatever.
- 43:29Speaker 1: So I do think the Titans might be a little
- 43:31Speaker 1: bit better than people think they are. On the Broncos
- 43:34Speaker 1: are the more over hyped team coming into this because
- 43:36Speaker 1: it's oh Bone Nicks. He's gonna be even better in
- 43:38Speaker 1: his second year, right, and they made the playoffs last year,
- 43:41Speaker 1: So that's why the public is on the Broncos. I
- 43:44Speaker 1: think it does still make sense to lean towards fading
- 43:47Speaker 1: the hype here and going with the Titans. But again,
- 43:49Speaker 1: the hesitation I would have is it's definitely a tough
- 43:51Speaker 1: assignment for a rookie quarterback to have to go in
- 43:54Speaker 1: there and do that forty nine or Seahawks this game.
- 43:59Speaker 1: This game really gives me problems trying to figure this
- 44:02Speaker 1: out because I come into the season, I think the
- 44:04Speaker 1: forty nine ers are gonna win their division. Like the
- 44:07Speaker 1: forty nine ers, they just had so many injuries last year.
- 44:10Speaker 1: Their season just fell apart. Man the forty nine ers,
- 44:12Speaker 1: they're still a really good team. They lost Deebo Samuel, yeah,
- 44:16Speaker 1: but they have all these other guys coming back. Man.
- 44:18Speaker 1: I know Christian McCaffery, it looks like he might be
- 44:20Speaker 1: doing with some injury issues again, that is maybe a problem,
- 44:24Speaker 1: but I think he's gonna play. So I think these
- 44:26Speaker 1: guys are gonna be out there. They're gonna be back
- 44:28Speaker 1: to their full offensive roster there, at least for the
- 44:32Speaker 1: forty nine ers there. I still don't think their defense
- 44:35Speaker 1: is that bad either, and they're well coached. Man. I
- 44:38Speaker 1: know they lost some defensive personnel, but the forty nine
- 44:40Speaker 1: ers brought Robert Sala back, who didn't do well as
- 44:43Speaker 1: head coach of the Jets, but he is a defensive
- 44:46Speaker 1: mind and he was really good as a defensive coordinator
- 44:48Speaker 1: for the forty nine ers, so he's back. So overall
- 44:51Speaker 1: this season, I like the forty nine ers. I think
- 44:53Speaker 1: they're gonna contend in the NFC unless they have a
- 44:55Speaker 1: bunch of injuries. Again, I don't love brock Purty necessarily.
- 44:59Speaker 1: I don't think he's that good of a quarterback, but
- 45:00Speaker 1: I do like the surrounding cast for him. I do
- 45:03Speaker 1: like the coaching with Kyle Shanahan there. I think he
- 45:06Speaker 1: is one of the better coaches in the league. I
- 45:08Speaker 1: don't like the Seahawks. I don't like what they did,
- 45:11Speaker 1: and they're gonna have some growing pains here. Man is.
- 45:12Speaker 1: They have a new coach coming in, which is who
- 45:15Speaker 1: the fuck is their coach now? Why do I do
- 45:17Speaker 1: not even remember who their coach is now? And they
- 45:20Speaker 1: have a new quarterback with Sam Donald coming in. And
- 45:24Speaker 1: you know me, if you watch my show last year,
- 45:26Speaker 1: I think Sam Donald was a product of the system
- 45:29Speaker 1: at Minnesota. Because you're talking about Sam Donald, the guy
- 45:32Speaker 1: who's years into his career at this point. He's always
- 45:35Speaker 1: been a bust and then all of a sudden, he
- 45:37Speaker 1: has a good season with the Vikings, and then he
- 45:39Speaker 1: fizzles out anyway at the end, and he can't handle
- 45:41Speaker 1: the pressure in the big pressure games at the end.
- 45:45Speaker 1: I think it was a flash in the pan. I
- 45:46Speaker 1: don't think that Sam Donald is that good. Yeah, I
- 45:49Speaker 1: know the Seahawks have Cooper Cupp now, but I don't
- 45:51Speaker 1: think he's gonna be that like influential in this offense man,
- 45:55Speaker 1: Cooper Cup. I mean, if you look at like his
- 45:57Speaker 1: fantasy projections aren't even that good. Smith Nijigba May Najigba
- 46:03Speaker 1: whatever his name is, is the seahawks number one wide
- 46:05Speaker 1: receiver now? Uh so well, uh what is that? What
- 46:09Speaker 1: his name is? I forget Jackson, Jackson Smith, the Jigba
- 46:12Speaker 1: whatever something to Jigba whatever the hell his name is.
- 46:15Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know anybody's name. But yeah,
- 46:17Speaker 1: the Seahawks, I still don't think they're gonna be good.
- 46:19Speaker 1: So that is my analysis of the season. But the
- 46:23Speaker 1: money's coming in on the Seahawks in this game, man,
- 46:25Speaker 1: So I worry, Uh, sixty percent of tickets on the
- 46:28Speaker 1: forty nine or sixty of the cash coming in on
- 46:32Speaker 1: the Seahawks. So if you look at the market read,
- 46:35Speaker 1: the leam would be to the Seahawks. But based on
- 46:38Speaker 1: my analysis of what I think these teams are gonna
- 46:39Speaker 1: do this year, and the forty nine ers having all
- 46:42Speaker 1: these guys back, so they all have that continuity and
- 46:44Speaker 1: that experience with each other, and the Seahawks are gonna
- 46:46Speaker 1: have to hit the ground with those new pieces there,
- 46:48Speaker 1: and what the fuck are they gonna do donald in
- 46:51Speaker 1: a new system? You know. I mean, I'm not sure
- 46:54Speaker 1: that I agree with the market read here, the market
- 46:56Speaker 1: read says the Seahawks. I don't really agree with it,
- 46:59Speaker 1: like I think I might mean to the forty nine
- 47:00Speaker 1: ers here, We'll see what I wind up doing and
- 47:02Speaker 1: pick them because I like my autism. I look at
- 47:04Speaker 1: this board and I'm like, I can't pick the forty
- 47:06Speaker 1: nine ers because the money is saying no. So I
- 47:09Speaker 1: don't know, man. We'll see what happens with that one.
- 47:11Speaker 1: And then we have Lions Packers another division. We have
- 47:14Speaker 1: a lot of divisional games in and of course Seahawks
- 47:17Speaker 1: do fall into that divisional underdog category at home, remember,
- 47:20Speaker 1: so that might be part of the reason why the
- 47:22Speaker 1: professional betters liked the Seahawks, because I told you at
- 47:25Speaker 1: the beginning of the show, home divisional underdogs in week
- 47:28Speaker 1: one do really well, and divisional underdogs do well generally
- 47:33Speaker 1: as well, and the Seahawks and the Browns fall into
- 47:36Speaker 1: the category of being home divisional underdogs here, and the
- 47:40Speaker 1: Falcons did until they flipped to a one point favorite.
- 47:43Speaker 1: So now they don't anymore, so that changes everything obviously, No,
- 47:47Speaker 1: not really. Lions Packers interesting, you would think the Lions
- 47:52Speaker 1: would be the favorite. They were the favorite in both
- 47:54Speaker 1: games last year against the Packers. I still think the
- 47:56Speaker 1: public perception is that the Lions are the better team.
- 48:00Speaker 1: Sixty eight percent of the ticket, seventy eight percent of
- 48:02Speaker 1: the cash on the Lions Packers open to two and
- 48:04Speaker 1: a half point favorite. It seems like the professionals joined
- 48:07Speaker 1: the public on this one and the line got driven
- 48:09Speaker 1: all the way down to the Packers being about minus
- 48:11Speaker 1: one one and a half year. It's still sort of
- 48:14Speaker 1: basically just a pick the winner type of price. So
- 48:17Speaker 1: that's where this game is at. My analysis on this
- 48:21Speaker 1: At first, I saw the line come out and I
- 48:23Speaker 1: was like, oh man, the lines are gonna be like
- 48:25Speaker 1: a public road underdog here, and in that case you
- 48:28Speaker 1: usually want to look to the home favorite. But it
- 48:30Speaker 1: looks like the money's coming in on the Lions. Man,
- 48:32Speaker 1: and the analysis that I've heard from professionals, they were
- 48:35Speaker 1: basically saying, well, they think there's a lot of like noise.
- 48:38Speaker 1: There a lot of chatter talking about how the Lions
- 48:40Speaker 1: are gonna take a step back because they lost both
- 48:43Speaker 1: their offensive coordinator and their defensive coordinator here. So their
- 48:46Speaker 1: offensive coordinator was Ben Johnson, he is gone. He's the
- 48:50Speaker 1: head coach of the Bears now. And their defensive coordinator
- 48:54Speaker 1: is Aaron Glenn. He's gone. He's the head coach of
- 48:56Speaker 1: the Jets now. So yeah, they lost both coordinators. They
- 48:59Speaker 1: still have Dan Campbell there, But I'm not sure that
- 49:02Speaker 1: the public really talks about that that much. Do you
- 49:04Speaker 1: really think the public like looks even that deeply into it.
- 49:08Speaker 1: Oh my god, the Lions lost both their coordinators. I
- 49:10Speaker 1: tend to not think so. Like the public is still
- 49:13Speaker 1: on the Lions, obviously, you could see that here. It's
- 49:15Speaker 1: just the professionals are also taking the lines. I think
- 49:18Speaker 1: the public more just kind of reacts to what they
- 49:20Speaker 1: saw last year. Oh, the Lions are the better team.
- 49:22Speaker 1: We're getting them at the underdog price here, so it
- 49:24Speaker 1: looks pretty easy to take the Lions here. I'm not
- 49:28Speaker 1: sure I agree with it though, man. I mean the
- 49:30Speaker 1: Packers they lost both games to the Lions last year,
- 49:33Speaker 1: which is gonna have the public tending to want to
- 49:35Speaker 1: take the Lions again even more wire the Lions and underdog, etc.
- 49:39Speaker 1: The Lions, I think in the first game, especially the
- 49:42Speaker 1: new coordinators. That does matter in the first game of
- 49:44Speaker 1: the season. I think you could lose a little bit
- 49:47Speaker 1: of continuity there. And though, yeah, the Lions have all
- 49:49Speaker 1: these pieces coming back. Their defense is healthy again because
- 49:52Speaker 1: they did lose Hutchinson and azelone or anzelone last year.
- 49:58Speaker 1: Not Kyle anzelone from the Libertarian Institute, But what the
- 50:03Speaker 1: hell is his first name? I don't even I don't
- 50:04Speaker 1: remember anybody's name anymore, man, and I used to be
- 50:08Speaker 1: really good with names. But yeah, whatever, the Lions, they
- 50:10Speaker 1: lost a couple of their best defensive players for long
- 50:13Speaker 1: periods of time last year. Those guys are back. But yeah,
- 50:17Speaker 1: I mean maybe the Lions will be coming out with
- 50:19Speaker 1: a chip on their shoulder because of the way their
- 50:20Speaker 1: season ended last year, getting upset in the playoffs. So
- 50:23Speaker 1: the Packers, this is at Green Bay. You know the
- 50:25Speaker 1: Packers are gonna show up too. And I know the
- 50:27Speaker 1: Packers weren't able to do it last year at home
- 50:29Speaker 1: against the Lions. I know we have similar personnel here.
- 50:32Speaker 1: Packers have Jordan Love. But I might still lean to
- 50:36Speaker 1: the Packers here. Man. It's kind of an anti public
- 50:40Speaker 1: side here, man, just because I think it looks too
- 50:42Speaker 1: easy to take the Lions as the underdog. Packers might
- 50:45Speaker 1: have a little bit of extra motivation here, man. So,
- 50:47Speaker 1: and the Packers, I think they're being undervalued by the public. Man.
- 50:50Speaker 1: I think the only other thing that I heard the
- 50:53Speaker 1: professionals talk about is that, oh, the Packers might be
- 50:55Speaker 1: overvalued now because Michael Parsons is there. I'm not sure
- 51:00Speaker 1: sure that I see that. Man. I know Parses. It
- 51:01Speaker 1: seems like he has back issues now. Man, So it
- 51:03Speaker 1: seems like Dallas, Like it seems like it wasn't that
- 51:07Speaker 1: bad of a trade for Dallas. And the Packers sent
- 51:09Speaker 1: Dallas one of their defensive tackles and Parses might not
- 51:13Speaker 1: even be ready to be starting in the season. Man,
- 51:16Speaker 1: he's not one hundred percent. And I heard that Parsons
- 51:18Speaker 1: is gonna have to get epidurals before every game. It's
- 51:21Speaker 1: like he's fucking pregnant or something. I don't know, man,
- 51:24Speaker 1: to alleviate the paining him, like just birth your sacks naturally, Man, Like,
- 51:28Speaker 1: what are you talking about? Yeah, you're bad with names. Yeah,
- 51:30Speaker 1: I mean I only am now because of my stroke
- 51:33Speaker 1: brain and whatever. I think I would still lean to
- 51:36Speaker 1: the Packers but I want to see how this market
- 51:38Speaker 1: kind of shapes up. So I guess this game in
- 51:40Speaker 1: the forty nine er Seahawks game. Those are the games
- 51:42Speaker 1: that I are probably would have a tendency to like
- 51:45Speaker 1: flip flop on those two games, man, as we see
- 51:47Speaker 1: what happens with the market read like coming into the
- 51:50Speaker 1: four or five four to twenty five slate of games. Man,
- 51:53Speaker 1: So those games, I don't have a strong opinion, but
- 51:56Speaker 1: I do slightly lean to the forty nine ers of
- 51:58Speaker 1: the Packers in those games as it stands now, and
- 52:00Speaker 1: that would be against the market read in both cases.
- 52:03Speaker 1: But I don't know, man, I just think the Packers
- 52:06Speaker 1: they're being a little bit to me. I think they're
- 52:07Speaker 1: being overlooked a little bit by the public. Texans Rams
- 52:11Speaker 1: is gonna be one of my plays, Oh God help me.
- 52:13Speaker 1: And then we get to probably the best game of
- 52:15Speaker 1: the entire week, the Sunday night games. Ravens Bills at
- 52:19Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills have fifty tickets fifty eight percent of the cash.
- 52:23Speaker 1: They do have the cash coming in on them. Public
- 52:26Speaker 1: likes the over man. You know this is gonna be
- 52:28Speaker 1: a game where the public wants to come in on
- 52:29Speaker 1: an over sixty six percent tickets on the over total
- 52:32Speaker 1: is already down for fifty three and a half to
- 52:33Speaker 1: fifty and a half, So I would say if you
- 52:35Speaker 1: like the under, and I would slightly lean to the
- 52:37Speaker 1: under in this game. The cash is coming down the
- 52:40Speaker 1: under of fifty three percent because the public perception is, oh,
- 52:43Speaker 1: these two teams can score a ton. We have tons
- 52:46Speaker 1: of talent, really good quarterbacks here, right, So the public
- 52:50Speaker 1: thinks this is going to be a shootout. But the
- 52:52Speaker 1: Bills have improved their defense this year, and I think
- 52:54Speaker 1: the Ravens have as well, So I think you're gonna
- 52:56Speaker 1: see both teams actually be better defensively this year, and
- 53:00Speaker 1: especially in Game one. I think the offense is in
- 53:02Speaker 1: Week one start a little bit slow. Sometimes defense is
- 53:06Speaker 1: I think it's a defensive game in general, man, because
- 53:08Speaker 1: this is more of a playoff type of atmosphere. So
- 53:11Speaker 1: I would agree with the under in this game. If
- 53:12Speaker 1: you do like that, I think you want to try
- 53:14Speaker 1: to get the fifty one because that's a key number. Man.
- 53:16Speaker 1: It is a pretty high total there. Yeah, epidurals legal,
- 53:22Speaker 1: but all this other stuff, Yeah, cortizone is banned. That
- 53:24Speaker 1: doesn't make any sense. Courtzoni in endurance sports. Their banned
- 53:27Speaker 1: Cortizone is not banned in the NFL because I know,
- 53:29Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that's what they inject those quarterbacks like
- 53:32Speaker 1: ankles with and shit, yeah, I don't know, man, I mean,
- 53:34Speaker 1: it's all just hypocritical bullshit. It's all stupid. But the
- 53:39Speaker 1: Ravens flip from plus one to minus one to happen.
- 53:42Speaker 1: I actually agree with the Ravens side in this game.
- 53:45Speaker 1: And I know I thought the Ravens were gonna win
- 53:47Speaker 1: that playoff game. But that means this is playoff revenge
- 53:50Speaker 1: because the Ravens are returning to the scene of the
- 53:52Speaker 1: crime here. Man, I know, it's a big game for
- 53:55Speaker 1: both teams. So the amount of the playoff revenge can
- 53:57Speaker 1: motivate you is a little bit limited, but it is
- 54:00Speaker 1: still a factor slightly. I would say, the Ravens know
- 54:02Speaker 1: the Bills ended their season last year. Yeah, both teams
- 54:06Speaker 1: are gonna want to show up here. But the other
- 54:07Speaker 1: thing that you got to look at is the Ravens
- 54:09Speaker 1: have actually outplayed the Bills, man, in the last three games.
- 54:13Speaker 1: The Bills have won two of the last three meetings
- 54:15Speaker 1: against the Ravens, but the Ravens I believe outgained them
- 54:18Speaker 1: an all three meetings, including if you dig into the
- 54:21Speaker 1: playoff game last year, the Ravens had like four hundred
- 54:24Speaker 1: yards of offense and the Bills only had like two
- 54:26Speaker 1: point fifty. So the Ravens outgained the Bills substantially in
- 54:30Speaker 1: that game. And the reason they lost was turnovers. The
- 54:34Speaker 1: Ravens had three turnovers and the Bills didn't have any
- 54:37Speaker 1: in that game, but one was a crucial turnof if
- 54:40Speaker 1: you remember, because I was pissed about it on my show.
- 54:42Speaker 1: I don't think I had the Ravens as an actual
- 54:43Speaker 1: play in that game. I don't remember, but I know
- 54:46Speaker 1: maybe I did. I don't remember, But there was that
- 54:49Speaker 1: pass over the middle to Mark Andrews or the Ravens
- 54:51Speaker 1: looked like they were driving to try to win the game,
- 54:54Speaker 1: and he fumbled it on the Bills side of the
- 54:56Speaker 1: field and that basically ended the game. That was ridiculous, man,
- 54:59Speaker 1: So the raven Yeah, I mean there were a couple
- 55:01Speaker 1: of fluke turnovers in that game too, And of course
- 55:03Speaker 1: the Ravens absolutely annihilated the Bills in the Ravens home
- 55:07Speaker 1: game last year. You remember that, it was a little
- 55:09Speaker 1: bit early in the season. It was a somewhat bad
- 55:12Speaker 1: spot for the Bills. I gave up the Ravens as
- 55:14Speaker 1: a lean on my shoulder. I didn't play it, and
- 55:17Speaker 1: I was pissed that I didn't play because the Ravens
- 55:20Speaker 1: massacred the Bills in that one. But the Ravens in
- 55:22Speaker 1: both games last year out gained the Bills. Man, I
- 55:24Speaker 1: think the Ravens are the better team. I think they
- 55:26Speaker 1: might be the better defense of the two as it
- 55:28Speaker 1: stands right now. And I actually think they have the
- 55:30Speaker 1: more talent on the offense too, even though the Bills,
- 55:33Speaker 1: I know James Cook is an up and coming star
- 55:35Speaker 1: there at wide excuse me, running back. They got some
- 55:39Speaker 1: better wide receivers there, I think as well. But still Ravens.
- 55:43Speaker 1: I think that they have the more. I think they
- 55:46Speaker 1: could do more with their offense. Let's say they have
- 55:49Speaker 1: like their offense is more multifaceted. They have multiple different
- 55:52Speaker 1: running backs, they could do multiple different things. Jackson is
- 55:55Speaker 1: a little bit more of a dual threat quarterback than
- 55:57Speaker 1: Allen is. But see yeah, for all those reasons, I
- 55:59Speaker 1: do lean to the Ravens in that game. Trave what's
- 56:02Speaker 1: up man, check darts? I have nothing on darts, man,
- 56:05Speaker 1: I know you like Bunting. I've met. I've mentioned Bunting
- 56:08Speaker 1: on my show man. I think on my show with
- 56:10Speaker 1: Clint Right on Balls. Bunting is the guy that had
- 56:14Speaker 1: that entrance where he because all these crazy darts entrances.
- 56:17Speaker 1: He had that entrance where he came out and started
- 56:18Speaker 1: kissing a bunch of dudes in the audience. It is hilarious.
- 56:22Speaker 1: I don't have anything on darts, but I know there
- 56:25Speaker 1: are some guys that do darts. If you go to
- 56:27Speaker 1: wager Talk, there's a guy one of their handicappers, Andy Lang.
- 56:33Speaker 1: He handicaps a lot of weird sports and he does
- 56:35Speaker 1: a lot of darts, so you can find his darts
- 56:38Speaker 1: shit over there. If you want to listen to some
- 56:40Speaker 1: professional guy that does darts, he does darts, He does golf,
- 56:43Speaker 1: he does a lot of props, he does a ton
- 56:45Speaker 1: of shit. So I don't know a whole lot about it.
- 56:48Speaker 1: I've heard all those names, the two Lukes and Bunting.
- 56:51Speaker 1: I think Luke, one of the Lukes, is a really
- 56:53Speaker 1: young guy. Right. I don't know anything about darts, but
- 56:56Speaker 1: we'll talk about your place. So you have Humphrey's Bunting,
- 57:00Speaker 1: Hitler parlay at plus two forty eight. So Travis says,
- 57:03Speaker 1: to do that. I don't know anything about it, though,
- 57:05Speaker 1: Man Travis says, happy unit on Van gir Win to
- 57:07Speaker 1: win the entire attorney just for fun at fifteen to one.
- 57:12Speaker 1: And then I guess when you do that, you could
- 57:13Speaker 1: hedge at the end of it too, you know, if
- 57:15Speaker 1: he gets far further in the tournament. However, this works bunting. Yeah,
- 57:19Speaker 1: he farms Aura. That is true. Yeah, well that's the
- 57:23Speaker 1: thing man darts like, I think for guys that actually
- 57:25Speaker 1: pay attention to it, because that's the thing. Nobody pays
- 57:28Speaker 1: attention to it, so the books don't have to put
- 57:30Speaker 1: up really good numbers, you know what I mean. Like
- 57:32Speaker 1: the books they know everybody pays attention to the NFL,
- 57:34Speaker 1: So the NFL lines are so hard to beat, although
- 57:36Speaker 1: I've been able to do it myself over the last
- 57:39Speaker 1: two decades. I've been able to beat the NFL and
- 57:42Speaker 1: win at it. But yeah, like some of these other sports,
- 57:44Speaker 1: you might be able to win at a higher rate because
- 57:46Speaker 1: the books don't find tune those lines. Like darts. Nobody's
- 57:48Speaker 1: betting darts. I don't know, they don't know enough about it.
- 57:51Speaker 1: You know what I mean. Andy Laning is gonna get
- 57:54Speaker 1: banned from some of these books, probably for it. Yeah,
- 57:56Speaker 1: so check him out. I guess. Yeah, darts is gay.
- 57:58Speaker 1: That's obviously what I said, dude, darts is fun. I
- 58:01Speaker 1: used to I played darts the one company that I
- 58:04Speaker 1: worked for that was really fun, which was like an
- 58:06Speaker 1: online jewelry company. It was a party, man. Everybody was young.
- 58:10Speaker 1: I was still a bit younger at the time too.
- 58:12Speaker 1: Everybody would hang out in the office at like most
- 58:15Speaker 1: hours and be drinking. We had shuffle board like table
- 58:18Speaker 1: shuffle board. We had shuffleboard tournaments. I lost in the
- 58:21Speaker 1: finals in the big shuffle board tournament we had with
- 58:24Speaker 1: the CEO as my partner, and I blamed him for
- 58:27Speaker 1: the loss, which was accurate. He looked at me, he
- 58:29Speaker 1: was like, yep, accurate. I'm like, oh man. And then
- 58:32Speaker 1: we had darts as well. We played darts in the
- 58:35Speaker 1: office as well. So that was the last time I
- 58:37Speaker 1: played darts to any serious degree at all. And we
- 58:40Speaker 1: do like crazy shit like telestrations in the office, even
- 58:43Speaker 1: though everybody starts drawing dix. This was back before everybody
- 58:47Speaker 1: became totally woke. Man. It was like in the early
- 58:49Speaker 1: twenty tens. We played cards against Humanity in the office
- 58:53Speaker 1: with the head of HR there. Yeah, the nukes nineteen,
- 58:59Speaker 1: you're up twenty seven unit's good for you, man, all right?
- 59:03Speaker 1: And then we got So that was the Sunday. That
- 59:04Speaker 1: was the Sunday night game. Monday night. There's only one game.
- 59:07Speaker 1: I'm used to there being two Monday night games. Man,
- 59:09Speaker 1: what gives There's only one Monday night game usually week
- 59:12Speaker 1: one as a doubleheader. It is Vikings Bears. So here's
- 59:15Speaker 1: your male cheerleader who I don't even think is male
- 59:20Speaker 1: to the Vikings, that blaze person, if you want to
- 59:23Speaker 1: even call them a person. I think that person is
- 59:26Speaker 1: a woman who trans to a man who is now
- 59:30Speaker 1: dressing like a woman and pretending to be a woman.
- 59:33Speaker 1: So it comes full circle, like that's what I think,
- 59:35Speaker 1: but I don't fucking know. Whatever it is, it's definitely gay.
- 59:40Speaker 1: So you should obviously go against the Vikings for that reason. No,
- 59:43Speaker 1: I'm kidding. I actually lean to the Vikings in this game.
- 59:46Speaker 1: And I think the Bears getting a little too much
- 59:49Speaker 1: of the public hygh per. Fifty nine percent of tickets,
- 59:51Speaker 1: sixty three percent of the cash on the Bears. Bears
- 59:54Speaker 1: are a little bit of public. It looks like they
- 59:55Speaker 1: got some of the money. But the Vikings did move
- 59:58Speaker 1: up from a pick them to one point road favorite,
- 1:00:00Speaker 1: and to me, it looks too easy to take the Bears.
- 1:00:03Speaker 1: I know it's one of those Week one divisional home underdogs.
- 1:00:05Speaker 1: I get that, but it's I mean, it's a pick
- 1:00:07Speaker 1: the winner type of line. So I don't know if
- 1:00:09Speaker 1: that really counts technically it does as a divisional home underdog,
- 1:00:13Speaker 1: but I think the Vikings are more ready to go. Man.
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: I mean the Bears, they have a new coach and
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: it's Ben Johnson. As I said, so there's gonna be
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: some growing bands there with Ben Johnson in there now.
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: Even though I think he's good, I think he's an
- 1:00:25Speaker 1: an upgrade over Ebberfluce ever Flush Eberflus, who is now
- 1:00:31Speaker 1: the defensive coordinator of Dallas the Bears. Yeah, I mean,
- 1:00:35Speaker 1: I think their offense may improve with Ben Johnson there
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: because he is better, But I don't think it's gonna
- 1:00:38Speaker 1: happen right away. Man, I'm still not a Kleb Williams guy.
- 1:00:41Speaker 1: I've been saying it. I'm on record saying I don't
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: like these quarters like I don't like these USC quarterbacks
- 1:00:47Speaker 1: basically for whatever reason. I think they just play against
- 1:00:50Speaker 1: bad offenses in the Pac twelve. Never been a Pac
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: twelve guy. I know it's not the back twelve anymore.
- 1:00:55Speaker 1: But I don't think Williams is good. I think he's gay.
- 1:00:58Speaker 1: I don't think he I think he too much. I
- 1:01:00Speaker 1: don't think he's tough. I don't think he understands the system.
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: I don't There's some word coming out. I don't know
- 1:01:05Speaker 1: if that was fake or not, that thing that I
- 1:01:07Speaker 1: quote tweeted the other day about Williams not understanding the
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: system at all. I don't know if that was real
- 1:01:11Speaker 1: or not. But I don't trust him. Don't like Williams.
- 1:01:16Speaker 1: Will the Bears be any better this year? Maybe, but again,
- 1:01:20Speaker 1: I just I don't know. I don't know if I
- 1:01:21Speaker 1: trust Williams. Man. They did lose Keenan Allen back to
- 1:01:24Speaker 1: the Chargers, and he actually had a pretty good game
- 1:01:26Speaker 1: on my fucking fantasy bench. By the way, Worthy in
- 1:01:30Speaker 1: my lineup gets injured on play number one and then
- 1:01:32Speaker 1: Allen is just sitting on my bench and Allen goes off,
- 1:01:35Speaker 1: So isn't that just awesome? Or he had a pretty
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: good game at least some. Yeah, really really pissed about that.
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: Who's a nephel I don't know who we're talking about. Oh, Bunting. Yeah,
- 1:01:50Speaker 1: I don't know about Bunting exactly, but yeah, I mean
- 1:01:52Speaker 1: I know he kisses men. You're going to the World
- 1:01:56Speaker 1: finals for darts, Yeah, do it man. Next year should
- 1:01:59Speaker 1: be fun. Although London you got to worry about how
- 1:02:01Speaker 1: much like crime there is there now because they're infested
- 1:02:04Speaker 1: with all the illegals. The Purple Penis leaders, that's true.
- 1:02:08Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that's their name. Purple Monkey dishwasher for
- 1:02:11Speaker 1: the Vikings, whatever the hell it is, The Purple people
- 1:02:14Speaker 1: leaters is what it was, the the Purple Helmets whatever. Vikings. Yes,
- 1:02:18Speaker 1: I know they do have a rookie quarterback now with
- 1:02:20Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy. But the good thing about McCarthy is at
- 1:02:24Speaker 1: least that he was in the system last year, like
- 1:02:26Speaker 1: he was supposed to be their starter last year, and
- 1:02:28Speaker 1: he got hurt in preseason, so he spent that entire
- 1:02:31Speaker 1: year at least being with the team and learning the system,
- 1:02:33Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So that's at least a
- 1:02:35Speaker 1: decent thing that McCarthy will at least understand the system,
- 1:02:39Speaker 1: will be up to speed. He played in the preseason,
- 1:02:42Speaker 1: so at least there's that. So he's gotten some NFL
- 1:02:45Speaker 1: play under his belt as well. And I think the
- 1:02:47Speaker 1: Vikings have the ability to take the load off him
- 1:02:50Speaker 1: a bit, man, because they have some talent on that offense, man,
- 1:02:53Speaker 1: and especially of course Justin Jefferson, who's a really really
- 1:02:57Speaker 1: good wide receiver. They're probably the best in it's either
- 1:03:00Speaker 1: him or Chase is the best wide receiver in all
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: of football. Man. So yeah, the Vikings do have all that,
- 1:03:05Speaker 1: and I think they've the better coaching here, man with
- 1:03:08Speaker 1: I know Ben Johnson's all right, but there's gonna be
- 1:03:10Speaker 1: continuity issues there potentially with Kevin O'Connell. He's been there forever. Man.
- 1:03:14Speaker 1: Kevin O'Connell is a nefyl if that's what you're talking about.
- 1:03:17Speaker 1: Kevin O'Connell, he's really fucking tall the coach for the Vikings,
- 1:03:21Speaker 1: but he's been there for a while. He's a good
- 1:03:23Speaker 1: coach man. He gets a good amount out of his players,
- 1:03:26Speaker 1: so I think that's a good sign too. So I
- 1:03:27Speaker 1: think you have the better coaching on the side of
- 1:03:30Speaker 1: the Vikings as well. And the Vikings have a pretty
- 1:03:32Speaker 1: menacing defense dude, So that could hurt the Bears here.
- 1:03:35Speaker 1: I still think the Bears own line is pretty bad.
- 1:03:38Speaker 1: I think they might have some problems with his Vikings defense,
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: and that's gonna cause Caleb Williams to have some problems.
- 1:03:44Speaker 1: So I do lean to the Vikings in that game.
- 1:03:46Speaker 1: Not gonna be a play for me though. Yeah the
- 1:03:49Speaker 1: male childer at male if that's even what that person is?
- 1:03:53Speaker 1: You like Odoonsey for sixty plus yards at plus one
- 1:03:58Speaker 1: twenty being feature during camp by Ben Johnson. Yeah, I
- 1:04:03Speaker 1: could see that. I mean again with Keenan Allen also
- 1:04:07Speaker 1: not there, I mean, what do they have? They have
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: him and DJ Moore? Right? Dj Moore is on my
- 1:04:10Speaker 1: fantasy Is dj Moore is still there? I think he is.
- 1:04:13Speaker 1: He's on my fantasy team. More. I've I don't have
- 1:04:16Speaker 1: any great wide receivers on my team. I just have
- 1:04:18Speaker 1: decent wide receivers on my team. But I have a
- 1:04:20Speaker 1: lot of them, so I don't know if I'll be
- 1:04:21Speaker 1: able to trade one of them away or we'll figure
- 1:04:23Speaker 1: out what I can do. But yeah, we'll see because
- 1:04:27Speaker 1: I need more depth at running back, but I don't know.
- 1:04:31Speaker 1: I'll figure it out. Man, My wide receivers are not
- 1:04:33Speaker 1: exactly good, though, But let's go to the plays. Let's
- 1:04:36Speaker 1: do it. Let's get out of here. It's late, man,
- 1:04:38Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be up till two thirty this time
- 1:04:40Speaker 1: on the show. But here's the best bets. Last night
- 1:04:43Speaker 1: my college football show went now in forty minutes, and
- 1:04:45Speaker 1: I was up here until two thirty. And then I
- 1:04:47Speaker 1: was trying to watch that movie together with Dave Franco
- 1:04:51Speaker 1: and Alison Brie, who I think are actually married in
- 1:04:54Speaker 1: real life. It's a weird, weird movie, man. It's like
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: a sci fi horror movie where they drink this like
- 1:05:01Speaker 1: poison water or whatever the fuck it is, and that
- 1:05:04Speaker 1: water causes them to, like, I guess, get stuck to
- 1:05:08Speaker 1: each other physically. I don't know. I'm only half way
- 1:05:10Speaker 1: through it. It's a bizarre movie. I know it's a
- 1:05:12Speaker 1: metaphor for relationships. Kay. I'm gonna see if I wind
- 1:05:16Speaker 1: up liking the movie or not. I don't know. The
- 1:05:17Speaker 1: critics liked it. The audience score was fairly good on
- 1:05:20Speaker 1: it as well, so I don't know. But will my
- 1:05:22Speaker 1: score be good the toad score? I don't know. Let's
- 1:05:25Speaker 1: get to the best bets, man, you're not gonna like these.
- 1:05:27Speaker 1: The first one up is the Jets plus three this one.
- 1:05:31Speaker 1: If you can't find three now, you could probably just
- 1:05:33Speaker 1: wait and find it. Because the Steelers, it looks like
- 1:05:36Speaker 1: they were one and a half point dog at some point.
- 1:05:38Speaker 1: I don't know if that was actually the case. They're
- 1:05:39Speaker 1: up to two and a half now with juice, so
- 1:05:41Speaker 1: I think you will be able to get a three
- 1:05:42Speaker 1: at some point. If you can't find it now, you
- 1:05:44Speaker 1: can just wait. I would still probably take the two
- 1:05:47Speaker 1: and a half if you can't find it, but I
- 1:05:49Speaker 1: think you probably are gonna find it at some point
- 1:05:51Speaker 1: because the public's coming in on the Steelers. The public
- 1:05:55Speaker 1: can influence NFL lines more than they can influence any
- 1:05:57Speaker 1: other sport. They're really the only lines that can be
- 1:06:01Speaker 1: influenced at all by where the public is is NFL,
- 1:06:04Speaker 1: especially in Week one, one of the first games up,
- 1:06:06Speaker 1: and this is a big game, man, because of the
- 1:06:08Speaker 1: quarterback matchup. It's gonna be really hyped, and I think
- 1:06:11Speaker 1: that's where we can actually find some value, man. I mean,
- 1:06:13Speaker 1: we're getting the Jets as a home underdog, which also
- 1:06:16Speaker 1: seems like value to me. But sixty four percent of
- 1:06:19Speaker 1: tickets only fifty nine percent of the cash on the Steelers,
- 1:06:21Speaker 1: so the public is on the Steelers. It's it's the
- 1:06:25Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers effect then, man, that's what it is. And
- 1:06:27Speaker 1: I like Aaron Rodgers. I mean I liked it he
- 1:06:29Speaker 1: took a stand against the vaccine. I watched his Netflix documentary.
- 1:06:32Speaker 1: I think he gets way too much hate. He's the
- 1:06:35Speaker 1: most overheted player probably in all of sports, him and Djokovic,
- 1:06:41Speaker 1: although I think Djokovic just got ousted from the US
- 1:06:43Speaker 1: Open last night. He lost in the semi finals, which
- 1:06:47Speaker 1: unfortunately Djokovic, he's way past his prime, which sucks because
- 1:06:51Speaker 1: some of his prime got ruined by not being able
- 1:06:53Speaker 1: to enter certain countries because he wasn't vaccinated, which is bullshit,
- 1:06:58Speaker 1: couldn't appear in those Slam tournaments. But yeah, Aaron Rodgers,
- 1:07:02Speaker 1: I mean he gets shit on for his vaccine stances
- 1:07:04Speaker 1: to it for just generally being weird and going on
- 1:07:07Speaker 1: ayahuasca trips and whatever. I like Aaron Rodgers obviously. I
- 1:07:11Speaker 1: think he was actually pretty good last year. If you
- 1:07:13Speaker 1: look at his stats, his stats are actually pretty good.
- 1:07:16Speaker 1: But this is the first game of the season. Man,
- 1:07:18Speaker 1: He's on a new team with the Steelers. And Rogers
- 1:07:21Speaker 1: didn't play at all in preseason. He didn't take a
- 1:07:24Speaker 1: single snap. So when you see that happen and I'm
- 1:07:27Speaker 1: fading two quarterbacks with my plays, that's what I look
- 1:07:30Speaker 1: for in Week one, man, I'm gonna fade quarterbacks that
- 1:07:33Speaker 1: didn't play at all in preseason whatsoever, because, like, how
- 1:07:36Speaker 1: can you adjust to the offense? Man, especially when you're
- 1:07:38Speaker 1: on a new team. This is the worst of it,
- 1:07:39Speaker 1: because when you're on a new team, Aaron Rodgers joining
- 1:07:43Speaker 1: the Steelers here, how like, yeah, you can learn the offense.
- 1:07:45Speaker 1: I know Aaron Rodgers. He's a good quarterback, he's a veteran,
- 1:07:48Speaker 1: he's a smart guy. But he hasn't played in this
- 1:07:52Speaker 1: in like an actual game environment yet. Yeah. Sure he's
- 1:07:55Speaker 1: played in practice whatever, but he hasn't played in a
- 1:07:57Speaker 1: real game with the Steelers with this him at all.
- 1:08:01Speaker 1: So I think that's a disadvantage. Man. I think he
- 1:08:02Speaker 1: might be slow to start here, and then everybody's gonna
- 1:08:05Speaker 1: come out and make fun of Rogers. Oh my god,
- 1:08:07Speaker 1: he sucks whatever, which I don't think he does. I
- 1:08:09Speaker 1: think he'll get going at some point this season. I mean,
- 1:08:13Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin's still a good coach. I do worry. This
- 1:08:16Speaker 1: might be his first time having a losing season though,
- 1:08:19Speaker 1: which has never happened to him before. But in this game,
- 1:08:22Speaker 1: I just don't think it's a good spot for the Steelers. Man,
- 1:08:24Speaker 1: They're going to the Jets. Everybody's talking about Aaron Rodgers
- 1:08:27Speaker 1: and that's the hype. Oh Aaron Rodgers. He's gonna want
- 1:08:29Speaker 1: to get back at the team that let him go, right.
- 1:08:33Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I don't know that Rogers really
- 1:08:35Speaker 1: gives a shit about that at this point. Man. I mean,
- 1:08:36Speaker 1: he was hurt for an entire season with the Jets,
- 1:08:39Speaker 1: and then he played one season last year. Do you
- 1:08:42Speaker 1: think he's really heavily motivated? Just like do you think
- 1:08:45Speaker 1: he has some grudge against the Jets? I highly doubt it.
- 1:08:48Speaker 1: But you know who I think might have a grudge,
- 1:08:51Speaker 1: Justin Fields. Who's the quarterback for the a grudge against
- 1:08:56Speaker 1: the Steelers. Excuse me, Justin Fields. I think he's gonna
- 1:08:59Speaker 1: have age against the Steelers. Excuse me. So this is
- 1:09:02Speaker 1: a crazy matchup, man, where both both quarterbacks are playing
- 1:09:05Speaker 1: against the team that they were on last year, and
- 1:09:08Speaker 1: nobody's talking about the field side of it. Everybody's only
- 1:09:11Speaker 1: talking about it's Aaron Rodgers against the Jets. Aaron Rodgers
- 1:09:14Speaker 1: against the Jets. Well, yeah, but it's also Fields against
- 1:09:17Speaker 1: the Steelers. And if you remember what happened, Fields was
- 1:09:20Speaker 1: fourign two with the Steelers last year. But then Russell
- 1:09:24Speaker 1: Wilson got healthy or whatever, and the Steelers were like, well,
- 1:09:26Speaker 1: we have to play Russell Wilson because he's fucking Russell Wilson.
- 1:09:29Speaker 1: He's a veteran, so we had to play him. I
- 1:09:31Speaker 1: think Wilson has passed his prime. Although I'm gonna possibly
- 1:09:35Speaker 1: be a hypocrite and when we talk about the Giants game,
- 1:09:38Speaker 1: but so you know where I'm going with that game too.
- 1:09:41Speaker 1: But I think Fields was actually the better option for
- 1:09:43Speaker 1: the Steelers. Man. I don't like how old Wilson is
- 1:09:46Speaker 1: at this point. I know he used to be good,
- 1:09:48Speaker 1: he's not anymore. I think the Steelers should have kept Fields,
- 1:09:51Speaker 1: and I think Fields is gonna have something to say
- 1:09:53Speaker 1: about this man. The Steelers let him go and they
- 1:09:55Speaker 1: basically were like, no, we're gonna play Russell Wilson over you.
- 1:09:58Speaker 1: We're gonna lose in the player, and then we're gonna
- 1:10:00Speaker 1: let you go. So I think Fields is actually gonna
- 1:10:03Speaker 1: be the more motivated quarterback here, and he's the quarterback
- 1:10:06Speaker 1: that played in preseason. I know he got hurt early
- 1:10:08Speaker 1: in the preseason, but it was a very minor injury.
- 1:10:12Speaker 1: I think it was like a sprain tow or something.
- 1:10:15Speaker 1: So he's back, he should be fine. So yeah, I
- 1:10:18Speaker 1: like the Jets here. And you're also getting points with
- 1:10:20Speaker 1: one of the lowest totals of the week. It's down
- 1:10:22Speaker 1: from thirty nine and a half to thirty eight. So
- 1:10:24Speaker 1: this is expected to be a slug fest of a game.
- 1:10:28Speaker 1: It's supposed to be old school defense, which I agree
- 1:10:31Speaker 1: with that, but the Jets probably have the better defense
- 1:10:33Speaker 1: over the Steelers. Man. And I know the Steelers. I
- 1:10:36Speaker 1: mean they made that weird trade too. They traded Fitzpatrick,
- 1:10:39Speaker 1: Minka Fitzpatrick. They traded him to the Jags. I think
- 1:10:44Speaker 1: is that where Jalen Ramsey was, So they brought in
- 1:10:47Speaker 1: Jaalen Ramsey. I think it's his name, right, I forget
- 1:10:50Speaker 1: names yet again, but I think that's who they brought in,
- 1:10:52Speaker 1: which Ramsey I think is a little bit old now
- 1:10:55Speaker 1: at this point. Man, So I don't know if that
- 1:10:57Speaker 1: trade is really gonna be good for the Steelers. I
- 1:11:00Speaker 1: think the Jets are actually the better defense. Man. The
- 1:11:02Speaker 1: Jets have been a solid defense for the last few years,
- 1:11:05Speaker 1: and they have a defensive head coach now with Aaron
- 1:11:07Speaker 1: Glenn there, who was a really good defensive coordinator during
- 1:11:11Speaker 1: his time at Detroit. I mean, he was pretty good
- 1:11:14Speaker 1: at least, I should say, but he's back to a
- 1:11:16Speaker 1: team that he played for. Man. Aaron Glenn did play
- 1:11:19Speaker 1: for the Jets when he was in the NFL, and
- 1:11:22Speaker 1: I think that's a good head coach signing Man, So
- 1:11:24Speaker 1: I think the Jets are going to actually take a
- 1:11:26Speaker 1: little bit of a step forward with him. I know
- 1:11:28Speaker 1: there's some growing pains there, so I know that's something
- 1:11:30Speaker 1: to be a little bit concerned about. Maybe because the
- 1:11:32Speaker 1: Steelers obviously don't have a new coach. The Jets have
- 1:11:35Speaker 1: the new coach the Steelers do not. But again, the
- 1:11:38Speaker 1: Steelers have a quarterback who hasn't played for them before.
- 1:11:41Speaker 1: The Jets they have a new coach and a new quarterback.
- 1:11:44Speaker 1: I know, maybe that's a little bit worse, but still,
- 1:11:46Speaker 1: I mean, the quarterback has to learn the new coaches
- 1:11:48Speaker 1: system either way, and I think it's going to improve
- 1:11:51Speaker 1: the Jets defense. The Jets do have decent offensive talent.
- 1:11:54Speaker 1: Man around fields. Here. They got Brease Hall if he
- 1:11:57Speaker 1: could stay healthy, he's a solid running back. Garrett Wilson
- 1:12:00Speaker 1: is still there, I think is their key wide receiver.
- 1:12:03Speaker 1: There's the Jets. Their offense isn't like totally inapse or
- 1:12:06Speaker 1: anything like that, which I think seems to be the
- 1:12:08Speaker 1: perception of the public that the Jets can't do anything.
- 1:12:11Speaker 1: But again, the Jets defense is good enough to hang
- 1:12:14Speaker 1: and what's supposed to be a low scoring game like
- 1:12:15Speaker 1: that getting the points at home. We'll take the Jets
- 1:12:18Speaker 1: plus three man in that one. What's crazy? What's happening
- 1:12:25Speaker 1: endangering the health of the morbidly obese heroin Addison mobile?
- 1:12:28Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Aaron Rodgers by telling people not get the vaccine.
- 1:12:31Speaker 1: He didn't even really tell people that. He just said,
- 1:12:33Speaker 1: do what you want with your own health, and this
- 1:12:36Speaker 1: is what I'm gonna do. Nancy, what's up? Thanks for
- 1:12:38Speaker 1: hanging out? What are you gonna send me? What you're
- 1:12:42Speaker 1: sending me? You're mailing something to me, you're sending me,
- 1:12:45Speaker 1: you're dming me, you're dming me your tits. I mean,
- 1:12:47Speaker 1: I'm fine with that. If that's what you're doing. That
- 1:12:49Speaker 1: will that will cheer me up? After I've been sad
- 1:12:52Speaker 1: over the last few weeks. I would not mind that. Charles,
- 1:12:55Speaker 1: what's up? You played? Oh the yeah? Broken big toe?
- 1:12:59Speaker 1: Yeah exactly, Yeah, just it might be his big toe.
- 1:13:02Speaker 1: I don't know, but yeah, justin fields. He's dude, He'll
- 1:13:05Speaker 1: suck it up. He'll be fine. Thornton on the Raiders.
- 1:13:09Speaker 1: Look to see if he's available in your league. He's
- 1:13:12Speaker 1: a six or five wide receiver and only one of
- 1:13:14Speaker 1: three to ever run a sub four four forty at
- 1:13:17Speaker 1: the combine, and the others were Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson. Megatron.
- 1:13:22Speaker 1: Interesting Thornton. Do you think he's gonna get it enough?
- 1:13:24Speaker 1: That's a good yeah, and then that's he probably is available.
- 1:13:28Speaker 1: I would guess. I doubt that that guy got drafted.
- 1:13:30Speaker 1: People don't know who he is. Do you think he's
- 1:13:32Speaker 1: gonna get get enough playing time? Though? So, I mean
- 1:13:35Speaker 1: we could stash people like we have a pretty expansive
- 1:13:38Speaker 1: roster in my league. But we got rid of injured
- 1:13:41Speaker 1: reserve spots, which I kind of hate because I mean,
- 1:13:45Speaker 1: if you actually do get a player gets injured, you
- 1:13:47Speaker 1: can't use that extra spot for it, obviously, But we
- 1:13:49Speaker 1: have extra bench spots instead of injured player injured spots.
- 1:13:53Speaker 1: The reason I don't like that though, because if a
- 1:13:55Speaker 1: guy is on the injured list but he's about to
- 1:13:58Speaker 1: come back, you can't, like, like I think you can't
- 1:14:01Speaker 1: like put him in your lineup, or there's some issue
- 1:14:04Speaker 1: with it, like ESPN gets fucked up. So I still
- 1:14:07Speaker 1: don't like that though. Oh through the mail, I don't know. Well,
- 1:14:10Speaker 1: you could do both if you want to. I don't
- 1:14:12Speaker 1: know what are you sending me through the mail though?
- 1:14:14Speaker 1: I don't know. Yeah, yeah, DM Maya, I don't know
- 1:14:17Speaker 1: what Nancy is sending me through the mail. Is it
- 1:14:20Speaker 1: gonna be a bomb as the unibomber. I'm a little
- 1:14:24Speaker 1: bit concerned about that, to be honest. What the hell
- 1:14:27Speaker 1: are we talking abou? Oh yeah, Thornton. Yeah, so we
- 1:14:29Speaker 1: could stash guys, But the problem is I already have
- 1:14:31Speaker 1: two stashes on my roster. I have two suspended wide receivers.
- 1:14:35Speaker 1: I have Addison, So that's one thing to keep in mind.
- 1:14:37Speaker 1: The Vikings Addison is not there, but I think that's
- 1:14:40Speaker 1: kind of a minor issue. They brought in Adam thelen
- 1:14:43Speaker 1: So feeling is gonna help out with their wide receiver
- 1:14:45Speaker 1: depth there in Addison's absence. He's suspended I don't even
- 1:14:48Speaker 1: remember why, and probably crashed a vehicle into somebody, because
- 1:14:52Speaker 1: that's what Rashie Rice is suspended for. And I have
- 1:14:55Speaker 1: him on my team, which is another reason why I
- 1:14:57Speaker 1: was like, oh, I'll have Worthy while Rice suspended, and
- 1:15:00Speaker 1: then when Rice comes back, I'll have him. Rice causes
- 1:15:03Speaker 1: six car six car pile up. He should probably be
- 1:15:06Speaker 1: in jail, but of course he's in the NFL, so
- 1:15:08Speaker 1: he's gonna play. But I have them stashed right now.
- 1:15:12Speaker 1: Rare company being true. Yeah, he'll be on my watch
- 1:15:15Speaker 1: list maybe for next year. The hope would be that
- 1:15:17Speaker 1: he doesn't do anything this year and he flies under
- 1:15:19Speaker 1: the radar still, or maybe if he starts doing something
- 1:15:21Speaker 1: this year, you can maybe get on him with the
- 1:15:23Speaker 1: free agent signing real quickly, A let's finish this up, man.
- 1:15:27Speaker 1: But I told you I was gonna be a hypocrite
- 1:15:29Speaker 1: with Russell Wilson. I'm gonna go with the Giants plus
- 1:15:32Speaker 1: six against the Washington Redskins, and you guys are not
- 1:15:36Speaker 1: gonna like this man. You know me. You know how
- 1:15:38Speaker 1: contrarian I am. I don't think this line was ever seven.
- 1:15:42Speaker 1: So if you get six, six and a half, whatever
- 1:15:43Speaker 1: the number is, there's not much of a difference between
- 1:15:45Speaker 1: those two numbers. You could wait because the public is
- 1:15:49Speaker 1: on Washington. It's sixty one percent of tickets on them,
- 1:15:52Speaker 1: fifty two percent of the cash and them. I highly
- 1:15:54Speaker 1: doubt against the seven though, if you want to wait
- 1:15:56Speaker 1: and see if it happens. There's no real rush to
- 1:15:59Speaker 1: play against a public team like this on NFL Sunday,
- 1:16:03Speaker 1: and you can basically wait until game time. I think
- 1:16:05Speaker 1: you're probably gonna still just get six or six and
- 1:16:07Speaker 1: a half on it, though, But I think in this
- 1:16:09Speaker 1: case it's good enough. Man. The Giants, I think they're
- 1:16:12Speaker 1: being undervalued again, man, even though I like Jackson Dart
- 1:16:15Speaker 1: over Russell Wilson. I know Russell Wilson will be their quarterback.
- 1:16:18Speaker 1: But do you really I mean, is that really a
- 1:16:20Speaker 1: downgrade from what the Giants were doing last year. I
- 1:16:23Speaker 1: know the Giants lost both games to Washington last year,
- 1:16:26Speaker 1: but those games were both actually really close, man. So
- 1:16:30Speaker 1: the Giants were one of the few teams last year
- 1:16:31Speaker 1: that actually were able to slow the Redskins offense down.
- 1:16:34Speaker 1: So the Redskins, we know they have a good offense
- 1:16:37Speaker 1: with Jaydon Daniels there, they added Deebo Samuel, they still
- 1:16:41Speaker 1: have who do they have? They lost one of their
- 1:16:45Speaker 1: running backs though, right they lost? Did they lose Brian Robinson?
- 1:16:48Speaker 1: I don't even remember. I forget if they did or
- 1:16:50Speaker 1: if they didn't. And they just resigned Terry mclaur and
- 1:16:54Speaker 1: I think so he's still there. So yeah, we know
- 1:16:56Speaker 1: Washington has a really good offense. But the Giants, again,
- 1:16:59Speaker 1: they actually have a pre underrated defense man, especially their
- 1:17:02Speaker 1: front seven and their defensive line. Their defensive line is solid,
- 1:17:07Speaker 1: and they bolstered it with that first round draft pick
- 1:17:10Speaker 1: this year too, so they had some solid draft picks.
- 1:17:12Speaker 1: I think that guy's gonna be ready to go right
- 1:17:14Speaker 1: away to what was that guy's name, Abdul? I forget,
- 1:17:18Speaker 1: maybe that's wrong, Paula Abdul, whatever the fuck his name was,
- 1:17:21Speaker 1: He's gonna be right there in the fray. And again,
- 1:17:24Speaker 1: the Giants, they were able to slow the Washington offense
- 1:17:27Speaker 1: down and play them close in both games last year.
- 1:17:30Speaker 1: They lost by single digits in both games last year.
- 1:17:33Speaker 1: And do you really think the Giants are worse this
- 1:17:35Speaker 1: year or do you think they're actually maybe better now
- 1:17:37Speaker 1: that Daniel Jones is out of there. He wasn't playing
- 1:17:40Speaker 1: well for them. Do you think it's a downgrade from
- 1:17:42Speaker 1: Daniel Jones to Russell Wilson. I don't really think that
- 1:17:45Speaker 1: it is. And the Giants, I mean, they have some
- 1:17:47Speaker 1: offensive components there that are decent. They got Molik Neighbors,
- 1:17:50Speaker 1: they think he should take maybe another step forward. They
- 1:17:52Speaker 1: got some young running backs that aren't too bad. They're
- 1:17:56Speaker 1: like Tracy So I mean, yeah, the Giants, and last year,
- 1:18:00Speaker 1: you know that they were having that ripple effect early
- 1:18:03Speaker 1: in the season where they lost Saquon Barkley was such
- 1:18:05Speaker 1: a key component from them, and losing that I think
- 1:18:08Speaker 1: kind of made them a little bit sad, I think
- 1:18:10Speaker 1: coming into the game. So the Giants, they're a year
- 1:18:14Speaker 1: removed from that. I think they're gonna be more ready
- 1:18:15Speaker 1: to go this time. Man. So again, I don't think
- 1:18:18Speaker 1: they should be a six point underdog here. They were
- 1:18:20Speaker 1: not that big of an underdog in either game last
- 1:18:22Speaker 1: year against Washington. I know early in the season. One
- 1:18:25Speaker 1: of the games was earlier in the season. I know
- 1:18:27Speaker 1: at that point we didn't realize that Washington was gonna
- 1:18:30Speaker 1: be as good as they were. So yeah, the line
- 1:18:33Speaker 1: would have to be adjusted a little bit, But I
- 1:18:34Speaker 1: don't think that a six point spread is justified. Man.
- 1:18:37Speaker 1: But I think the Giants are probably a little bit
- 1:18:39Speaker 1: better than they were last year. And Washington, I don't
- 1:18:42Speaker 1: think they're as good as they looked last year. I
- 1:18:45Speaker 1: think they're one of my key like one of the
- 1:18:47Speaker 1: teams I keyed on in my season win totals to
- 1:18:49Speaker 1: take a step back this year. I mean, they went
- 1:18:51Speaker 1: from four wins to twelve wins last year. That's like
- 1:18:54Speaker 1: unheard of. So you got to think they're gonna kind
- 1:18:57Speaker 1: of land somewhere in the middle of those two this year.
- 1:18:59Speaker 1: And I actually they're gonna be around maybe eight to nine,
- 1:19:02Speaker 1: somewhere between eight and nine wins, and I actually think
- 1:19:04Speaker 1: they might miss the playoffs. So that was my analysis there.
- 1:19:07Speaker 1: But again, Giants, they're the better defense too. Washington's defense
- 1:19:11Speaker 1: is bad, so the Giants, I know, their offense isn't
- 1:19:14Speaker 1: that good, but they might be able to find some
- 1:19:16Speaker 1: holes in this Washington defense. Yeah, and the Giants defense
- 1:19:20Speaker 1: is the better defense, and they might be able to
- 1:19:21Speaker 1: slow Washington down enough to stay in this game. It's
- 1:19:24Speaker 1: another divisional dog two in Week one. You know what
- 1:19:27Speaker 1: I said, Divisional dogs. Although it's not a home one here,
- 1:19:30Speaker 1: but the divisional dogs do well in week one, they're
- 1:19:33Speaker 1: one of them. Yeah, and I get we got one
- 1:19:37Speaker 1: already with Dallas, so for a play on my show,
- 1:19:40Speaker 1: I mean, and the Chargers did cover as well, which
- 1:19:44Speaker 1: was just a lean for me. But yeah, we'll go
- 1:19:46Speaker 1: with the Giants here, man, for all those reasons. Not
- 1:19:49Speaker 1: a Russell Wilson fan at this point, but I just
- 1:19:52Speaker 1: think it's the better defense. Getting points is something you
- 1:19:55Speaker 1: can't really overlook. Man. We're fading the public, like I said,
- 1:19:58Speaker 1: so I like that aspect of it too. So we're
- 1:20:00Speaker 1: we'll go with the Giants. Nancy is the guy who
- 1:20:05Speaker 1: was at my door this morning. I don't think so.
- 1:20:07Speaker 1: I've met Nancy in person, and they did not look
- 1:20:09Speaker 1: the same. The Washington White Boys, the Caucasians, And we're
- 1:20:14Speaker 1: gonna finish this off. This is gonna be one that
- 1:20:16Speaker 1: everybody's gonna hate this one too. We're gonna go with
- 1:20:18Speaker 1: the Houston Texans plus three at the La Rams. Yeah,
- 1:20:23Speaker 1: I mean, this seems to be the professional side on
- 1:20:27Speaker 1: this one. The Rams, I don't know when they were
- 1:20:28Speaker 1: ever to and a half point ut or do, but
- 1:20:29Speaker 1: they're a three point favorite here now so you can
- 1:20:31Speaker 1: get the key number of three fifty three percent of
- 1:20:33Speaker 1: tickets on the Rams, but fifty eight percent of the
- 1:20:36Speaker 1: cash coming in on the Texans. This is another one man,
- 1:20:39Speaker 1: where I actually think we're getting the better defense getting
- 1:20:42Speaker 1: points with the Texans, even though I know the Rams
- 1:20:44Speaker 1: defense kind of came around last year. But Sean McVay
- 1:20:47Speaker 1: is more of an offensive coach man, and the Rams
- 1:20:49Speaker 1: defense was pretty bad for the first half of the
- 1:20:52Speaker 1: season last year. Texans, they took a big offensive step
- 1:20:56Speaker 1: back last year. It was offensive to me, and that
- 1:20:58Speaker 1: was like the sophomore slump that I talked about with
- 1:21:00Speaker 1: c J. Stroud after he lit up the league. The
- 1:21:02Speaker 1: league kind of figured out what the Texans offense looked
- 1:21:05Speaker 1: like with him, and we're able to kind of slow
- 1:21:07Speaker 1: them down. But the Texans are a much more defensive
- 1:21:09Speaker 1: team and Demico Rye and their coach is a much
- 1:21:12Speaker 1: more defensive coach, so I like that too. So we're
- 1:21:14Speaker 1: getting the more defensive minded coach here against the more
- 1:21:17Speaker 1: offensive minded McVeigh. I know McVay is a good coach,
- 1:21:20Speaker 1: but the other thing McVeigh does is he doesn't give
- 1:21:23Speaker 1: a shit about preseason. He doesn't play as starters in preseason.
- 1:21:26Speaker 1: I think that causes the Rams to get off to
- 1:21:28Speaker 1: a slow start. Man, Matthew Stafford, I think he's gonna
- 1:21:32Speaker 1: play in this game, but he hasn't played at all
- 1:21:36Speaker 1: in preseason, and he has a bad back. He's old.
- 1:21:38Speaker 1: So it's like, what are you even gonna get with
- 1:21:40Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford in this game? Is he gonna be like
- 1:21:42Speaker 1: a total statue Like that doesn't seem good man, And
- 1:21:45Speaker 1: the public is still thinking that the Rams are gonna
- 1:21:47Speaker 1: be good in this game and that the people are
- 1:21:49Speaker 1: picking the Rams to win that division. I'm not so
- 1:21:52Speaker 1: sure about that. Man in the Rams. They added to
- 1:21:53Speaker 1: Vonte Adams, so he's a stud wide receiver obviously, But
- 1:21:58Speaker 1: dude Stafford, again, I think he might come in uh
- 1:22:01Speaker 1: like cold. Let me make sure he's playing. I'm pretty
- 1:22:04Speaker 1: sure he is, but dude to not having played in
- 1:22:07Speaker 1: preseason and due to let me see, due to him
- 1:22:12Speaker 1: having this bad back. I mean it seems like it's
- 1:22:13Speaker 1: a bad Yeah, he's not listed on the injury reports,
- 1:22:18Speaker 1: so he is he is going to play, uh, but again,
- 1:22:21Speaker 1: so that means he's coming in cold. He hasn't played
- 1:22:23Speaker 1: whatsoever in preseason. I know he's a veteran and he's
- 1:22:26Speaker 1: still with the same coach and on the same team.
- 1:22:28Speaker 1: But again, I think he might be cold coming into this. Man,
- 1:22:30Speaker 1: I don't know if his back is gonna hold up.
- 1:22:33Speaker 1: Seems bad to me. So I'm gonna actually go in
- 1:22:35Speaker 1: this case. I'm gonna go with the younger of the
- 1:22:37Speaker 1: quarterbacks getting points. But I'm also going with the better
- 1:22:39Speaker 1: deepfense again, which is the Texans. And I think the
- 1:22:42Speaker 1: Texans started to get overlooked a little bit towards the
- 1:22:45Speaker 1: end of last season because everybody realized their offense wasn't
- 1:22:48Speaker 1: as good anymore. And it's about their defense again, man.
- 1:22:52Speaker 1: And yes, I know the Texans do have offensive injuries
- 1:22:54Speaker 1: right now. We have to worry about that a little bit.
- 1:22:56Speaker 1: Joe Mixon is not gonna play in this game. He's
- 1:22:58Speaker 1: injured right now the starting running for the Texans. But
- 1:23:01Speaker 1: they have Nick Chubb now, so they have some running
- 1:23:03Speaker 1: back depth. Chubb is a talented running back, so he'll
- 1:23:06Speaker 1: be in the mix. And they have Damian Pierce, who
- 1:23:09Speaker 1: when he was getting a big load, a big load,
- 1:23:12Speaker 1: oh god, when he was getting a huge workload for
- 1:23:16Speaker 1: the Texans, he was actually good too. So I think
- 1:23:18Speaker 1: he might surprise the people this year. And man, if
- 1:23:20Speaker 1: these Texans running backs can't stay healthy, Pierce could be
- 1:23:24Speaker 1: good when he's in the mix. Man, NFL running backs
- 1:23:26Speaker 1: are there's somewhat plug and play too, man, So I'm
- 1:23:29Speaker 1: not too worried about that. And then, yeah, their wide
- 1:23:32Speaker 1: receiver depth is a little bit shaken right now because
- 1:23:34Speaker 1: they added Christian Kirk and it looks like he's hurt
- 1:23:36Speaker 1: right now. And I think Tank Dell, who was on
- 1:23:40Speaker 1: my fantasy team last year and had a like a
- 1:23:43Speaker 1: major injury last year, I think he's not back yet either.
- 1:23:45Speaker 1: So yeah, I know that means Nico Collins is going
- 1:23:48Speaker 1: to be shouldering a big load at wide receiver, another
- 1:23:51Speaker 1: load at wide receiver for the Texans. But again, a
- 1:23:54Speaker 1: lot of this is about the defense, and this is
- 1:23:56Speaker 1: looking like it's gonna be a low scoring game. The
- 1:23:58Speaker 1: total is down for forty six and a half to
- 1:23:59Speaker 1: forty three three and a half here, big move on
- 1:24:02Speaker 1: the under fifty nine percent tickets on the under eighty
- 1:24:04Speaker 1: six percent of the cash in the under. I think
- 1:24:06Speaker 1: as long as the Texans can be competent enough on offense,
- 1:24:09Speaker 1: I trust that more than what you're gonna get out
- 1:24:12Speaker 1: of Matthew Stafford here. Man, I'm just not sure that
- 1:24:14Speaker 1: he's gonna be ready yet, and he didn't play in preseasons,
- 1:24:16Speaker 1: so he doesn't have the chemistry built up with Devontae
- 1:24:19Speaker 1: Adams yet. Who's gonna be one of the key wide
- 1:24:21Speaker 1: receivers for them? Yes, they have Puka Nakula still, but
- 1:24:25Speaker 1: I'm not loving it, man. So if the Rams are
- 1:24:27Speaker 1: getting more of the hype, Texans are flying under the
- 1:24:29Speaker 1: raidarn They said that. I don't really think the Texans
- 1:24:32Speaker 1: are necessarily gonna win their division this year, but I
- 1:24:34Speaker 1: like them in this game in Week one, man, even
- 1:24:36Speaker 1: though that's probably the weakest of my three plays, but
- 1:24:39Speaker 1: those are the plays Giants Washington. By the way, the
- 1:24:43Speaker 1: money seems to be coming in a little bit on
- 1:24:44Speaker 1: the under in that game too, so that's a good
- 1:24:46Speaker 1: sign for taking the points too. The total went down
- 1:24:48Speaker 1: for forty six to forty five and a half, thinking
- 1:24:50Speaker 1: that Giants defense might be able to keep this game
- 1:24:52Speaker 1: a little bit lower scoring. And Week one games tend
- 1:24:55Speaker 1: to be fairly low scoring as well, because teams tend
- 1:24:58Speaker 1: to come out a little bit slow. The offense tends
- 1:25:00Speaker 1: to be less ready to go than the defense right away.
- 1:25:03Speaker 1: Uh sixty tickets and sixty percent of the cash on
- 1:25:06Speaker 1: the over in that one. Uh yeah right, just load
- 1:25:13Speaker 1: them all up with Fentanel. Yeah, Texas they have huge lows.
- 1:25:16Speaker 1: Everything's bigger in Texas, especially the loads. That's gonna do
- 1:25:19Speaker 1: it though, man NFL the plays this week. We already
- 1:25:22Speaker 1: won on the on the Dallas Cowboys. Let's keep it
- 1:25:24Speaker 1: going with all these underdogs. Jets plus three I think
- 1:25:27Speaker 1: you'll probably find the three sometime between now and kickoff.
- 1:25:30Speaker 1: It's still probably good at two and a half, Giants
- 1:25:33Speaker 1: plus six or six and a half, whatever you can find.
- 1:25:36Speaker 1: And Houston plus three I think is definitely out there
- 1:25:38Speaker 1: right now, so you can get those three. That's gonna
- 1:25:40Speaker 1: do it, everybody. Thanks for hanging out once again. Learn
- 1:25:43Speaker 1: to tone on Twitter, on Instagram. What else do we have?
- 1:25:49Speaker 1: Better off? Deedgars Like, subscribe to the show on Brain
- 1:25:52Speaker 1: farting her stroke Brain late at night, Like and subscribe,
- 1:25:56Speaker 1: go review me on the audio, give me good reviews
- 1:25:58Speaker 1: on Spotify and on Apple over there, I mean that
- 1:26:03Speaker 1: will help me out as well. Covered in yuke on
- 1:26:05Speaker 1: YouTube my Yuke project and then uh Patreon, dot com,
- 1:26:09Speaker 1: slash Learnedertad and there's some bonus Yuke there as well. Uh, justin,
- 1:26:13Speaker 1: did I have Missouri State beating Marshall. I never talked
- 1:26:16Speaker 1: about that game, but that I did. I looked at
- 1:26:18Speaker 1: the game and that was a lean that I had.
- 1:26:19Speaker 1: I didn't have enough information about that, but I was.
- 1:26:22Speaker 1: I looked at that line and I was like, Marshall
- 1:26:24Speaker 1: is a ten point favorite. It seemed like there was
- 1:26:27Speaker 1: no way Marshall should be a ten point favorite. So
- 1:26:29Speaker 1: I kind of wish that I dug into that game
- 1:26:31Speaker 1: or and gave out a play on that. Because Missouri State,
- 1:26:34Speaker 1: they're being undervalued right now. I know they're new to
- 1:26:36Speaker 1: FBS those there are kind of growing pains when that happens.
- 1:26:39Speaker 1: But Marshall is awful, Like Marshall's basically new to FBS
- 1:26:43Speaker 1: two because they lost their entire team over the offseason.
- 1:26:46Speaker 1: Their whole team from last year is Southern Miss. Now
- 1:26:49Speaker 1: they all went to Southern Miss. Marshall, It's gonna be
- 1:26:52Speaker 1: a real long season for them. So I definitely looked
- 1:26:54Speaker 1: at that and I had that as a That was
- 1:26:56Speaker 1: absolutely a lean for me, Like there was only one
- 1:26:58Speaker 1: way I was gonna do that. I was gonna take
- 1:27:00Speaker 1: ten points with the Missouri State in that one. I
- 1:27:02Speaker 1: wish I added it to my money pools because I
- 1:27:06Speaker 1: definitely considered it being one of my last plays, because
- 1:27:08Speaker 1: I've fucking lost on Duke in my as one of
- 1:27:11Speaker 1: my last like money money pool plays, even though I
- 1:27:15Speaker 1: went three and one on my best plays, the bets
- 1:27:17Speaker 1: that I give on on the show, but on those
- 1:27:20Speaker 1: pools that I'm in, I have to add like a
- 1:27:22Speaker 1: couple more plays. So I added like Duke and Iowa,
- 1:27:25Speaker 1: and I think Iowa might have not even covered the
- 1:27:27Speaker 1: worst number two. They covered the better number and didn't
- 1:27:29Speaker 1: cover the worst number. The difference of three man three
- 1:27:33Speaker 1: mattered in that game, so that pisses me off. To Travis,
- 1:27:36Speaker 1: I have a good day as well. Yeah, let me
- 1:27:38Speaker 1: let me know about the darts. I forget who you
- 1:27:41Speaker 1: are on Twitter, but if you talk about darts, I'll
- 1:27:43Speaker 1: know it's you that's gonna do it. Everybody get some sleep,
- 1:27:47Speaker 1: hopefully I can too, and let's get some wins tomorrow.
- 1:27:49Speaker 1: I'll be back in the morning because I have to.
- 1:27:52Speaker 1: I have to give you some baseball analysis in the
- 1:27:55Speaker 1: morning and probably WNPA. Yeah, did they win out right?
- 1:28:00Speaker 1: Missouri State? It wouldn't surprise me at all if they did,
- 1:28:02Speaker 1: because Marshall is fucking awful. There's no way they should
- 1:28:06Speaker 1: have been favored like that. I wish I made that
- 1:28:08Speaker 1: a play man, because that line it jumped out to
- 1:28:10Speaker 1: me is like, there's no fucking way Marshall should be
- 1:28:12Speaker 1: favored like that. The professional money, I think, came in
- 1:28:15Speaker 1: on Missouri State and drove the line down to about
- 1:28:18Speaker 1: nine off of the key number ten. Anyway, Yes, let's
- 1:28:22Speaker 1: get some sleep, everybody. I'll be back tomorrow if I'm
- 1:28:26Speaker 1: still alive after I get very little sleep, drinking more coffee. Peace, everybody,