Are You a Wizard or a Prophet? The Mental Model I Use to Underwrite Every Deal | Ep 317

Serious AI with Chris Duff · Jul 9, 2026 · 26m

In this episode, a Texas parcel bought at roughly $3,000 per acre (inclusive of value-add) shows how fast a buyer's market can reprice, with the exit assumption sliding from an underwritten $5,500 to $6,000 per acre to a $5,000 listing that still barely draws a bid. That same parcel would underwrite closer to $4,000 per acre today, a 20% to 30% drop in under two months. Charles Mann's "The Wizard and the Prophet" supplies the lens, contrasting innovation that pushes past limits against caution that respects them.

We fund larger land deals that others can’t reliably underwrite. With a 100%…