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Interview Only w/ Jonathan Martin - Predictions For Trump & American Politics In 2026 · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: com slash chuck, free shipping and three hundred and sixty
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  Speaker 1: five day returns quints dot com slash chuck. So I
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  Speaker 1: wasn't going to have a guest but for the for
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: for this week, I promised you some what if episodes,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: some mailbag episodes. We've already delivered one what if actually
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  Speaker 1: two what IF's in one. But my next guest, who
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  Speaker 1: have course is I believe we've we will crown him.
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  Speaker 1: He's part of the five time toddcast club here just
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  Speaker 1: like SNL hosts. It's none other than Jonathan Martin. J
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  Speaker 1: mart somebody I have known worked with Friends with for
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  Speaker 1: thirty plus years. He wrote one of my favorite He
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: wrote an homage to one of my favorite columns from
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: the eighties and nineties, the old Bill Sapphire predictions column.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: He called it the office pool.
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  Speaker 1: All things Bill Sapphire in the New Year used to
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: used to consume us. If I remember back in the
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: day we had had this column, then he would go
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  Speaker 1: on Nightline and do that prediction panel with Copple. It
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  Speaker 1: would always be Sapphire, sometimes modout right, sometimes Peggy Noonan,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: you know, I but always Sapphire. And he always had
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: a lot of fun with this. So you wrote this
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  Speaker 1: column and I thought, I know, Jay Martin's got thirty
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  Speaker 1: minutes for me.
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  Speaker 2: We've got to We've got to have absolutely, especially the
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  Speaker 2: day after New Year's Day, which is a big day
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  Speaker 2: in New Orleans. Uh yeah, for a lot of reasons.
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  Speaker 1: So well, we are taping on the second that's going
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  Speaker 1: to drop on the first sort of working Monday of
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  Speaker 1: the year. But let's go through. Look, I've said this,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: we all have crutches. Around the end of the year.
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  Speaker 1: You have your best of lists two years a lose,
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  Speaker 1: winners and losers, Right, I do what ifs like we
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  Speaker 1: all have a thing you you, but it really is
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: the topics you sort of hit on sixteen, topics that
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  Speaker 1: you know is going to get covered this year. You
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  Speaker 1: have a little fun, obviously, but but I'm guessing there
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  Speaker 1: were a few topics you hit on first and foremost
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  Speaker 1: that you really wanted to make a point about, and
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  Speaker 1: then there were others that you had to like, well,
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  Speaker 1: I need more items in here.
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  Speaker 2: So.
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  Speaker 1: Right, we all get it, right, So give me your
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  Speaker 1: of sixteen. What was the one you were like the
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: first couple that were like, this is my obsession and
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  Speaker 1: why I wanted to crank out this column.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting. It's kinda like, you know, the hardest
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  Speaker 2: writing sometimes is the shortest writing. And I could have
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  Speaker 2: done twenty five pretty easily, right, it would have been
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  Speaker 2: it would have been hard to done like just five.
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  Speaker 2: I did sixteen because I felt like I had fifteen,
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  Speaker 2: and then like, well it's twenty twenty six, and if
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  Speaker 2: I deal sixteenth, I could have fun with a sports question.
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  Speaker 2: So I tossed in a Laine Kiffin question there in
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  Speaker 2: the end. Well, the ones that I think Chucker's screamingly
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  Speaker 2: obvious are what is Trump got to name after himself next, right,
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  Speaker 2: I mean this is less of presidency than it is
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  Speaker 2: a victory lap of somebody who is. Presidence in public
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  Speaker 2: life is entirely about validation and affirmation more than a
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: day's really any substantive accomplishment. It's about recognition, right, which
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: has been Trump's identity for fifty years as he wants
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  Speaker 2: to be. He's got to say he's been consumed with
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  Speaker 2: this arguably his entirety. Yeah. And it's never on the marriage,
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: it's never on subs it's just am I one of
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  Speaker 2: life's winners? And so like. Of course he's spending his
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: days like building homage to himself and like quite literally
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: monuments to himself and renaming everything he can after himself,
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  Speaker 2: because that's the whole ballgame. Right.
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  Speaker 1: What I find it weirdly impressive is that he picks
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: things to put his name on that. If you're a
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  Speaker 1: Trump opponent and you obsess over too much in some ways,
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  Speaker 1: you look like you're obsessed with the superficial right, the
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Institute of Peace, the Kennedy Center, the ball right. It's
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: absurd that he's obsessed with this. And if you're a
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  Speaker 1: Democratic member of Congress, you're an idiot. If you want
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: to line up oversight hearings about it too.
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  Speaker 2: Right, right, because then you're dragged down to his well. Right.
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  Speaker 2: I'm reminded of of last fall when he he got
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  Speaker 2: up there on the campaign tron of Pennsylvania and was
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: talking about, you know, Arnold Palmer's endowment, and it was like,
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: you know, Democrats, like, how do you ignore it? But
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: at the same time, no.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: It's it is, and and that that's weirdly his genius
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  Speaker 1: and how he does this, which is why it ends
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  Speaker 1: up happening like exactly, you're thinking, like the Institute of Peace,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: like one of the cooler buildings that you come into DC.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Now it's it's sort of I've always I've been I've
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: always been impressed with the architecture of it, and i've
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: been you know, you know, it's like we cleaned up
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: that whole part of Constitution Avenue. And I don't even
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  Speaker 1: think he knows why Congress endowed the building in the
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  Speaker 1: first place.
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  Speaker 2: Of course, not besides the point, totally beside the point.
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  Speaker 1: So I just need it.
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  Speaker 2: I did the Trump Uh, I just think I I'm
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  Speaker 2: of the view that Trump should be covered with the
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: level of seriousness that he takes the job, right, and
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: he doesn't make the job very seriously, Like he can't
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: be bothered to do the basis about any policy issue.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: Any foreign leader. He barely knows their names. He says
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: the same thing with every foreign leader. A great guy
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: doing a great job. We get along really, really well.
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  Speaker 2: It's all interchangeable. He just wants to like do the
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  Speaker 2: public facing aspects of the job to get him attention,
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  Speaker 2: notoriety and affirmation. So like that's what he's about. Now.
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  Speaker 2: That's not to say that there's other elements of his
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  Speaker 2: presidency that are deadly serious, those carried about by carried
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: out by his lieutenants that dud demand intent scrutiny.
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  Speaker 1: All right, so let's pick what's he gonna name after himself.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: I'm impressed with the you know, cherry picking Dallas Airport.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: There isn't a big constituency to protect Alan Dallas, right,
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  Speaker 1: So I think I think if he really wants to,
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  Speaker 1: it's this named after him. You know, it's the most
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  Speaker 1: hated airport in the region.
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  Speaker 2: And was going to say, who hates b W.
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  Speaker 1: I Uh, it's equally as much because of the false
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: advertising of the W in it. It is not nowhere
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  Speaker 1: near Washington. But that's my pet, peeve. But everybody hates Dollis.
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  Speaker 1: Everybody hates Dollis. Okay, nay, truy, you want that on
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  Speaker 1: your go ahead, buddy. It's kind of on the.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: Back door troll, right, it's a back door roll. He is, like,
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  Speaker 2: you know, those in the know would get that Trump
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  Speaker 2: being named after Dollas actually is not omas right, right,
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  Speaker 2: control right? Yeah?
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  Speaker 1: Is that your assumption or what?
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  Speaker 2: What do you think he tries No, I think he'll
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  Speaker 2: be tempted to do doll It would surprise me if
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  Speaker 2: he tried to grab Dallas. But I think that the
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  Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty eighth anniversary of the country and
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  Speaker 2: the construction of the arc, the Trump that he's going
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: to build across Memorial Bridge between the Lincoln Memorial and
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: the Custosly Mansion, I think that temptation will lead him
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  Speaker 2: to just make that that bridge, which nobody really knows
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  Speaker 2: the name of that bridge, but it's a Memorial bridge.
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  Speaker 2: Just call the Trump Bridge.
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  Speaker 1: Interesting, you know, I want to you know, one of
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  Speaker 1: the things about him that I think it's an un
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  Speaker 1: This is an uncomfortable fact when I bring it up
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  Speaker 1: to people, because they don't want to believe. They don't
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  Speaker 1: want to believe. But do you know who Trump is
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  Speaker 1: most like? I think of previous presidents, it really is
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Teddy Roosevelt in in how he Teddy was obsessed with
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  Speaker 1: his legacy. Teddy was constantly very comfortable with stuff being
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  Speaker 1: named after him. I mean, my got he had his
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: picture etched. That was the only way Mount Rushmore happened.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: You're like, wait a minute, Jefferson, Lincoln, Washington, and you right,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: it's always been, you know, and like the logger, we've gone,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: we've decided that Teddy legacy now sort of lives it.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: But you're like, we probably have the wrong Roosevelt on
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  Speaker 1: the Mount Rushmore.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, not even close, right, right? And yet.
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  Speaker 1: You know, I I when I bring up how actually
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: narcissistic Teddy was and how Trump is really most emblematic
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: to him, it makes people uncomfortable because we want to
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: like Teddy.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and because Roosevelt is somehow part of the American spirit, Bully,
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: you know, He's a great Eastern who went west.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: And isn't Trump very much a part of the American
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  Speaker 1: spirit that not everybody loves?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I've always felt that Trump is less
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: of a political archetype and more of a a pop
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: culture archetype. P. T.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Barnum that he's a modern he's Barnum.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: He's Buffalo Bill, but he's he's the traveling salesman coming
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: through town on the medicine wagon. It's always been a
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: part of American culture.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: It was just we've always had with Charles Lindberg, we
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: can keep going, and just none of them ever became president.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: He's the first one that ever became. We always had
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: a huckster element that people kind of like in our
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: pop culture, right, you know what people is saying about
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: sucker is born every minute. I mean, yeah, this is
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: an old story in American life that Trump has updated
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: for the TV age and now the digital age, but
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: it's not new the Trump. Yeah.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: I think the thing that people like you and I
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: got wrong about him is I think we thought the
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: country wasn't susceptible to a huckster, like that's right, And
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: it turns out yeah, we are, you know right, It
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: turns out we weren't.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we thought that there was a salt water freshwater
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: division between our politics and our pop culture, and it
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: turns out it was bracktish, right.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: One of your other questions you put out their predictions, etcetera.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Is a Supreme Court seat opening. I fully believe this too.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: You know, if you if you're looking for political pressure
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: points to try to goose Republican turnout, and you look
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: at what happened in ninety eight I mean in eighteen,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: excuse me, I mean, you know, without the Kavanaugh nomination,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: maybe Democrats hang on to two Senate seats. You know,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: maybe mccasko finds a way to win, like she will say,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: the Kavanaugh Uh fighting that happened essentially four weeks before
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: election day galvanized the right and really fired them up.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: If I were sitting in the white West wing looking
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: to goose Republican turnout for the midterms, a Supreme Court
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: fight this summer, you know, would be would would be
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: what something I would order up after trying the redistricting gambit,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: which looks like it's going to end up if Virginia
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: goes through with what they do, he can end up
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: actually a net negative for Republicans. But uh so, which
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: one of them goes? Does he bully Alito out or
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: is it Thomas?
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: It feels like Alito is the more likely one, you know,
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: that's what. But I've kind of heard through the grave. Ye.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: And also he's got a clerk he's here. I mean,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: you could tell the whole flag thing. He doesn't love
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: being up. Like it's clear that he and his wife
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: aren't on the same page on this, like one wants
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: to be a public figure whatever it is. They're just
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: sort of and he is of the age of like,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: you know, but I keep hearing Thomas is done and
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: ready to get in the RV and you know, maybe
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: go go to Georgia bulldog games.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: It's clearly one of those two. I think it's just
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: a matter of which one it is. And especially if
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: Trump's numbers by let's say the first of March, if
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: Trump's approval is down thirty one thirty two percent nationally, boy,
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: I think the pressure is going to be really intense
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: on one or both of them.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Because if you don't get up, then you're risking a
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: bit ter RBG right, right with RBG six Yeah, yeah, no,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: I'm I am. I'm one of those who believes that
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Democratic chances of winning the Senate are going to seem
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: a lot more realistic come October of the calendar year.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: It's so much like two thousand and six, and that's
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: why I completely agree. I think, you know, late developing races.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we're going to I don't know if it's Mississippi, Kansas,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: or Iowa maybe you know, maybe all of them, right,
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: but we're gonna see We're going to see more competitive
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: races pop up in some places we haven't been thinking
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: about or maybe you and I have been thinking about
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: them but haven't percolated just yet.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: This is notable, hasn't gotten a ton of attention. But
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: in Nebraska, the same Indie Dan Osborne who ria am
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: against dem Fisher and lost, you know, ran a solid campaign,
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: is running this time with the benefit of having the
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Democratic Party of Nebraska's TACIT support. And they ain't had
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: it the last I'd argue, you had it the last time.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: But they're not going to run somebody on the ballot.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: They didn't run somebody in the last time. That's what
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: they did. I thought they felt the same. But like
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: even even a sort of like Joe six Pack running
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: with the D label is not going to happen, which
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: could drain eight percent of the vote, is what I'm saying.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: You know, true, But I don't know if you hear
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: like me, you will watch any game that's on TV.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: And I watched the Nebraska Utah game, and you know what,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: I saw a lot of I saw a lot of
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: Pete Ricketts advertising, just very positive ads, just sort of like, hey,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: I'm doing what deb Fisher never did, which remind people
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: that I'm your United States senator.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: He's got money to do.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Jeb Fisher didn't spend. I am a I am a
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: skeptic of this race because it's hard to do this.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: It's hard to be an insurgent twice.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: It is. It's also a little harder I think for
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: a Democrat to win a Trump cycle. What Trump's on
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: top of the ticket, you know, true, and.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: This time he won't be I hear.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: You know. It's funny.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: Deb Fisher was the more vulnerable, you know, if you
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: think about it like antelopes, like right, you know when
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: the dinosaurs or the or the cheetahs are going to
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: take the weakest, you know, the slowest antelope in the herd. Right,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: Fisher slower than Rickets because of the mound.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: Right, But yeah, Osborne could could lose by four and
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: Jasmincrockett could lose by seven. So there you go. Chuck,
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: I gotta get into the jasmine crowd. By the way,
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: speaking of Trump not being on top of the ticket,
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: and I think that that can't be over emphasized enough
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: in these Senate races right where Kenadates have relied on
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: that looks Susan Collins wins in twenty twenty in a
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: Trump in a Trump cycle. Even though Trump loses nationally
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: and loses Maine, He's Trump still wins the second congressional
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: district and drives out a lot of voters in Maine
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: that voted for Collins. Are those folks coming out this time?
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know, you know, Chuck, North Carolina? You know
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: Trump drives rural turnout, right, Are those folks that come
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: out from Michael Wantley in a midterm cycle in North Carolina?
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: I don't look.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: I I'm skeptical of Ashley Moody in Florida. The Democrats
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: syst haven't found in challenge, right, you know, I'm skeptical
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: of Sydney Hyde Smith and Mississippi. Yeah, you know, there
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: are a lot of these weaker Look I think, by
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: the way, I'm surprised you didn't do this one. So
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: I think the Cynthia Lummus retirement is intriguing in which
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: Trump adjacent carpetbagger is going to float running in that race.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: And you know, one of my favorite rumors that I
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: had that I had like it was like you know
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: the chatter, yet you trust you know the chatter that
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: you trust that Junior was very interested in a Wyoming center.
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I heard that last year.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And suddenly when that Lumbus retirement happened, I went up,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: this is how it would happen. And given how easily
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: the Trump Trump folks took over the Wyoming Republican Party,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, just as Liz Cheney, I wouldn't.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: Rule it out.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: And then suddenly you have Vance Junior UH ticket ready
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: to go. I don't think that's done yet.
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: I heard that chatter the early part of twenty twenty five,
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: like January, February twenty five, I guess a year ago.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: Now got done flies and I checked it out and
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: nobody out there had had heard of it. But Hageman
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: jumped in immediately got drums endorsement. That feels like a
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: done deal. I did hear for the junkies will love
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: this Foster Freeze the lake yas owner late he just
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: passed away right this year, a year or two ago.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: His son apparently still lives around Jackson Hole. I think
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: his son's sniffing it either well, it would be now
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: the government Jackson whole carpetbagers have always, you know, always
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: there's got to be one of that.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: There's got to be Sometimes you get fully rejected, right
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: and sometimes Look, Liz Cheney wanted to come in early.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Remember she wanted to be a senator first and was
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: sort of ready to bully out Mike Enzie, and that
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: didn't work.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: It was one of the most fun stories I wrote
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: for The Times in my ten years. There was in
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: the summer of twenty thirteen. I spent a day with
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: the late Mike Enzi. God loved me. Was a sweet
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: mam uh. He was doing a town hall tour imagine
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: that town hall tour by himself down the eastern spine
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: of Wyoming. I followed them all the day to these
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: small little towns, and I ended the day in a
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: town called Lusk, Wyoming. Great date, Lione, And after the
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: town hall ended, he finally said, I got some time
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: for you, and I'll come over and pull up a chair.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: It couldn't have been nicer, and I said, Senator, I
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: I hears some chatter that Liz Cheney's thinking about coming
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: home to primary you. And he said, oh, that's so interesting.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: You know, she actually just called me last week about that,
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: and my face just you know what, White, It's like
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: one of those moments were like you look down at
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: your camp record, like make sure it's on. Oh she did,
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: Senator tell me about that. He totally dropped the dime
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: on her and basically flushed her out before she wanted
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: to announce her challenge to Enzi. But you're right that
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of for the you know, the money. Now,
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: the changes are different because obviously Dick and Lynn grew
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: up in Casper, but there's always that element in especially
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: around Jackson Hole, of folks that have money who want
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: to run. I was joking with a friend of mine,
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: I said, I said, I think Teton Village needs a
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: voice in Washington, and my friends the Titon Village is
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: doing just fine and Washington trust me.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just gonna say, I think they having
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: a nice red these days. This episode of The Chuck
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• 22:16
  Speaker 1: Going back to Supreme Court, I love your I love
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: your four dominees, puro Oldman, Alien Cannon, Ted Cruz. So
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: this the machiavellian in me says it'll be Ted Cruz
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: to eliminate him as a dvance primary opponent.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna say, you know, that'd be the
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: vance preference exactly to get Cruz Cruise out of the
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: Senate onto the Court. I think Trump is so taken
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: with these traditional credentials of Harvard clerkships, you know, federalist society,
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: this and that, and this young fellow not young but
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: he's forty seven. Uh, Andrew Oldham is is on a
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: circuit now down in Austin, Texas, play.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: In the game, right, and he's he was he was
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: an Alito.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: Clerk, Chuck Sam with a Cavanaugh was a clerk for
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: oh God, Stanford, Tony Kennedy. You know, I just think
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: that this makes the most sense. But you're right, Cruise
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: would be the play if it was Vansa's call. Come
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: back to the actually Moody race. By the way, but
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: you mentioned actually movie. There are a couple of people
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: I hear.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: She's not crazy about the job, by the way. She
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: doesn't love it, sort of got pushed it, talked into it.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: I've heard, like I said, I I've just heard some
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: interesting chatter that she may not be long for that
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: seat even if she wins the like she may finish
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: the term but not seek the full six.
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: I think one of the most under reported storylines of
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: the mid term cycle are the two appointees who are
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: basically anonymous in DC and don't get any tension in
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: the national press.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: John Hewn and Houstead in Ohio, right.
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: And actually Moody in Florida. Here are these two states
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: that you know in this century, were like the pre
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: eminent battleground states. They're red tilted. Now, I get that,
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: but you have two appointees with not much of profile
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: in DC. Now, Houston has more a profile back home
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: in Ohio because he was in politics so long. But
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: I just think that there's so much ink spilled shock
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: on the Texas Senate race. And then I can just
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: rank thembout this for an hour.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: I know the politic you know, Texas senator. Remember remember
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: my rants of two thousand about the damn New York
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Senate race, and we kept covering Clinton Lazio as if
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: it was competitive. And it's like, this race is not competitive,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: and the only thing national reporters wanted to cover in
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: the Senate was the Hillary Clinton Center ration.
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: You're like, guys, that's not competitive. Go see the Rod
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: Grahams and stop.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: Let's go to two. Let's that was a real race,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: Mark Dayton and Rod Grahams.
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I spent Abrahim w stabanow Man.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Now, but I would argue this Ken Paxton and Jasmine
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Crocketts the Senate race our politics deserves, yes, and in
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: some ways I'd like it, you know, let's have it out.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: And I don't know who would win that. I really
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: don't you know. I think you would assume that it's
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: Texas and that an African American woman's kind of a
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: harder time winning than a white male. But Paxton is
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: so corrupt, is so corrupted an anti woman that I
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: don't rule anything out.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: What percent of like Democratic donors activists could even tell
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: you the name of the incumbent senator in Ohio, where
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: they've got a much better shot I would argue to
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: win a race than in Texas. It's incredible, Like you
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: have Sharon Brown running I state, think he's won elections
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: in for half century against an appointee, and it gets
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: next to no buzz anyways, as does my ram hell.
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: I would say even Roy Cooper, the former tutor and
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: governor of North Carolina, that race gets oddly little attention.
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: I think it's the political hobbyist culture that's taken over
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: the internet, right, so everything is about Platiner in Maine,
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: or now it's Tall Rico and Crockett in Texas. Like
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: the less sexy races, whether it's Houston and Ohio against
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: Brown or uh Cooper Carolina.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: Don't you think it's the obsession of trying to find
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: like these. You know, you're like, well, we missed keep Boodhages,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: we missed Ted Cruz, right, and they both were the
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: next avatar? Yeah, who's the next you know, one of those?
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: And everybody's constantly looking for that, right, is it?
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Graham Platner, right, is exactly? Is it? Also there's there's
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: the forever Hillary Bernie proxy war too, right, which will
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: never never end, right, And so that's part of.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: Well now it really is just Bernie's proxy war with everybody.
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: Right, He's still rocking that same jacket and gloves.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: I saw, you know, you know, I'll tell you that,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: you know, the campaign we never had. And I thought about, Look,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: I went through my the what if that I dropped
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: earlier this week was what if I did it? I
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: did it at two parter. It was essentially what if
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: Trump had either conceded normally in twenty twenty or what
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: if Trump had won in twenty twenty?
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: I really was, you know, when I when I went
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: through the exercise, what the most fascinating thing was actually
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: realizing how much January sixth really changed Biden and Ron
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: Klaine and how they conducted that presidency, you know, and
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: how much. It changed everything because there's not a democratic Senate.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: If there's no if if Trump doesn't do what he does,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: like I'm convinced that Georgia goes at least one and
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: one doesn't go both in directions Democrats And what is
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: the Joe Biden agenda with a Republican Senate? Right, it
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: doesn't completely different presidency and who you knowing deals?
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: Right McConnell and Biden are doing deals. There are Democrats
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: will privately tell you they regret. The day January fifth,
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: twenty January fenty was a huge It bleated that ruined.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: Biden didn't run to be that president. He ran to
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: be the transformational let's settle down, and in some ways
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: the only way that could be successful is if you
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: had divided government, and not having divide a government almost
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: forced them to, well, we better try to go big now,
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: because how often do you get this? You know? And
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: by the way, nobody will be.
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: More about this than one term due to Biden's collapsing
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: numbers in the fall of twenty twenty one, because.
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: Of in part we Afghanistan in part, but also because
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: of Biden's vaulting ambitions, and by the way, the day
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: after that twenty twenty one election, I had an up
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: and coming Democrat. Tell me, mister president Nobody, I'd like
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: you to be Franklin Roosevelt. We wanted to make where
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: is that up becoming democrats. Democrat's name was albig Els
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: Bamberger Governor. I lacked Abigail's Bamberger.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, she's she's almost governor. We're only a few days
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: away on that one. A few other things from your
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: prediction column, Uh, the next place, what's that? The next
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: place he's ordering airstrikes, and your choices of Venezuela ran
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: again Russia, and then you have some fun with Canada.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: But I want to single out Iran. And I'm going
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: to have a guest on this in a in about
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: ten days. But I think when when I think about
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: the stories that I'm trying to prepare for that not
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: a lot of people are focused on, I think that
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: I think the regime is going to collapse in Iran.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: It's I was in Abu Dhabi a couple of weeks
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: ago at a journalism conference.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: There.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: People that are going in and out of of Tehran
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: are just it's And you know, Abu Dhabi has a
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: huge rainy and diaspora. It is all the buzz that
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: the regimes days are numbered now, you know. Look, it's
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: like with a sod in Syria. You knew it was
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: going to happen. You just is it today? Is it
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: next year? Is it five years? But it was gonna
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: there was no way this was sustainable. And you know
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: the lack of running water in Tehran is going to
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: blow this regime up? Is it in twenty six? And
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: what does Trump do? Who will probably want a little
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: bit of credit when it happens on his watch.
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: Right, he'll probably name the airport in Toronto for himself. Exactly. No, Yeah, Look,
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: presidencies are always about the unexpected events, right, and that's
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: the maximum our times. And I mean nobody would have
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: guessed that, like the second Trump residency could be defined
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: by right though the fall of the Aatola but and
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: the regime that has governed her on for the last
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: forty five years, but totally plausible.
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: Oh, Chris, you want to talk about reshaping the Middle East?
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: You have a we have a demo semi democratic regime
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: in Iran. I mean, it's going to be fascinating, it's
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: you know it, We really could finally resolve World War One.
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, mhm. And and also I mean it takes a
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: massive sponsor of terrorism, you know, off the map really does, uh.
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: And also undermines the broader access between a lot of
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: these countries who are obviously against the West, Russia and.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: The irony is that the only person staying in the
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: way for a stable Biddlelaet might be be being at
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: Yahoo right after that point, that he could be seen
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: as the most unstable force, not not his his government,
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: not the country, but his government. And also it also
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: seems unsettled. He does seem a little unsettled about all this. Suddenly, Oh,
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: Trump's gonna cut deals with Syria now, and Trump's gonna
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: cut deals all over the like, and you know he'll
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: do it with Iran if there's a new regime in Iran,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: look how openly and of course he would love.
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: A lot of money. It also makes you wonder how
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: the Saladies react. But you know, if they're you know,
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: if if the major Shei country in the region suddenly
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: has a vacuum, what does MBS do, uh? And how
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: does he operate?
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: And I think U A out maneuvers them. And in Iran,
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: part of it is just because they, like I said,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: there's a big Iranian diaspora, and yeah, yeah, with money.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: It's fascinating.
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: No, it is, and it's going to be. Look do
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: I think Venezuela. Look, I think Venezuela could become a
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: real political problem for Trump because this is the pottery
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: barn rule.
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: If we're going to keep bombing on land, yes, and
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: we succeed, are we walking away from rebuilding Caracas?
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. Also, Uh, Steven Miller, pick up
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: your phone, because if you create some kind of regime
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: change in Venezuela and you've got a flight of Venezuelans,
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: you know, into the US. Well, the history of countries
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: that we meddle him is that a lot of folks
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: from those countries come to our country. Right, So, speaking
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: of great historical ironies, the the market Rubio of Venezuela
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: policy could be the Steven Miller nightmare. Right.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: Well, I've often wondered, I feel like Rubio, Look, we
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: know Rubios the architect of all this, right, Yeah, And
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: I've often thought that Rubio, I hope he realizes that
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: the second things go wrong, he's the fall guy, right, Like,
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know when Rubio's time with Trump comes to
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: an end, but I think I know what it's over.
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: And at some point when Trump has to blame somebody
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: else for a foreign policy adventure, it ain't going to
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: be him. It's going to be his secretary State.
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: And this is why, by the way, Chuck a different prediction,
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: but for the same principle that you just outline, I
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: think Cash Battel is going to be a fall guy
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty six too, because whenever there's some kind
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: of incident or a manhunt that goes awry, or some
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: big flap and embarrassment in which, you know, so there's
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: a tragedy that happens, somebody's taken the fall for that,
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: and it's not going to be somebody in the White House,
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: you know, I don't.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: I get the sense that Cash Hotel doesn't have as
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: many supporters in the West wing as perhaps he did
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: around in Trump's inner circle in twenty two and twenty
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: three that he does in the current West.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: Clearly, and by the way, one of the big storylines
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: of the second Trump term is the leaks are still coming,
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: but they're coming more about the cabinet than they are
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: the principal himself. The first term, the leaks were about
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: Trump himself and Trump's behavior in the West Wing sort
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: of well, because you had a mix of establishmentarians in
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: the West Wing who are at the guest. Yeah, the
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: leaks this time are about the cabinet because it's between
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: cabinet folks. It's between West Wing staff and cabinet folks.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: So there's this idea of like, oh, there's no more
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: leaks this time. There's plenty of leaks. It's just it's
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: about the cabinet and the staff, not Trump. All right,
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: let me give you.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you Christy Nome, Cash, Betel Pete
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: Haigset who's the least likely to finish the year calendar year?
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: And I think Pel, yeah, Cash, and I think no,
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: I would put no second yeah, and also Chuck. I
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: think for a similar reason. I hate to say this,
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: but look it, we're just a vulnerable you know, you know,
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: in this country, in the West broadly, and if there
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: is God forbid, some kind of a tragedy, you know
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: they're gonna get get homeland security.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: It took their eye off the ball or yeah, you
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: could picture that storyline right totally. I won't ask you
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: a question though about Florida.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, it's actually kind of a fun story
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: the two traditional Maybe I should write this the two
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: traditional battleground states of the odds Florida and Ohio. Yeah,
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: they used to have football programs too. I think more
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: on that leader.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: But Florida and Ohio, well, the rightful order has been
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: is being restored with the other state of Miami on tap.
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: But anyway, it's but Florida and Ohio right totally undercovered.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: I think in twenty twenty six, talk to me about Florida,
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: your your home state, which is the more leftic to flip?
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: If the dams were to strike gold and win in
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: twenty six and Florida is a governor senate.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: Oh, it's one hundred percent gov because of the financial
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: if the look I think the state is. I think
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: senate races are harder to win in Florida now for
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Democrats than governors races. Right, you're going to get to
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: that point, we're going to move, We're going to shift
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: towards the sort of in Kansas. Right, I don't know
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: if Democrats were still probably I think by the by
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: twenty thirty six, they'll be a Democratic senator in Kansas.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: I do I think in the next ten years we're
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: getting there. It's shifting. It has all the elements. You know,
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: you've got three suburban areas. That's you know, when you
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: look at how red states become purple states, Kansas looks
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: very similar to what we've seen in Georgia, what we've
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: seen in Aunt. You're seeing Colorado. So I buy it, right,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: I sort of buy it that it's coming. But in Florida,
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: I do think the Jersey matters a lot more in
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: Senate races, right, you're like, Okay, who who's going to
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: be representing us in Washington. But you know, you've got
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: a property tax problem in the state. You've got high
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: electricity bills in the state. You've got all these sort
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: of issues that really are state driven, less less so
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: than the fed fed driven. DeSantis isn't popular. He's not
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: like he's not you know, in his work. He's probably
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: more popular than Trump, right because right now Trump's got
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: the economy sort of really dragging him.
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: Down a little bit.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: But DeSantis doesn't have many friends in Tallahassee these days,
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: and primary could get a messy. I I and you know,
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: in theory, Democrats actually have two viable candidates in Jerry
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: Demings and David Jolly, but it is silly that they're
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: primary in each other. One ought to be running in
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: the Senate race. Right here we go again, right, one
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: of them ought to be running in the center race
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: because they could use a better ticket. Okay, But I
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: do think if you're saying if the bottom falls out
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: for the right, what would fall first? Look, I think
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: that I think Donalds is a terrible first name. It's congressman,
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: and I think that's going to be a tough you know. Now,
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: I think David Jolly is a terrible first name. It's
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: former congressman and former lobbyists. Like in a weird way, Demings,
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: the Donald's is intriguing to me because he gets to
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: be a mayor, a former mayor versus a former congressman.
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: I just look, there's a huge financial disparity. So I'm
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: not gonna I don't want people to think, hey, Chuck
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Todd says the Florida governor's.
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: Race is competitive. It's not competitive yet.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: It may not get there. But if you're asking me,
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: I would, I would. I would have an easier time
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: concocting a campaign against thirty years of Republican rule against
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Like, are you really frustrated
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: by the rising cost of living in Florida? Well, you
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: know who's not fixed property taxes, who's not fixed insurance?
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: Who's not? Right?
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: Like, it's an easier campaign to be very similar to
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: what Nancy excuse me, Kathleen Sibilius and then Laura Kelly
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: essentially successfully pulled off in Kansas.
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, right, yeah, I might be my guess the.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: Now, I'll give you a one wild card, yep, Okay,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: I do think DeSantis is going to try to do
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: redistricting in Florida. The seat they may target is Jared Moskowitz,
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: one of the seats they may target. And he said
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: he's said to me, I mean he's he's on the
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: record of this. He goes, if they come after me,
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: then I may run for Senate.
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: And he could be a.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: Pretty good Senate he could. He could raise a decent
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: chunk of money. He would be the pro Israel Democratic
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: Senate candidate in Florida. Right, you couldn't ledge him out
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: on that one issue, which is very meaningful in South Florida,
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: And uh, you know I wouldn't. I'm skeptical that I'm
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: skeptical he could win votes north of Okalla, but you know, uh,
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: he certainly could make it an.
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: Interesting That's fascinating, that's fascinating. But coming back to our
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: two thousand and six scenario, Yeah, we have to we
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: have to think about a world in which after Labor Day,
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: Trump's at thirty percent approval and the world looks different. Now,
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: let's go ahead.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: No, I look, I agree. It's why I'm keeping an
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: eye on. You know, I don't even completely right off
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: the independent candidacies, the sort of the the the Osborne
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: like guys at South Dakota. Yeah, Missipi Andippian in in Idaho,
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: although Idaho feels like a real stretch. This was my
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: favorite one that you did because I feel like you
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: had a hidden agenda in this one, mister Martin. So
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: I'm going to read this one which twenty twenty eight
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: Democratic presidential hopeful will unwittingly hurt their candidacy by writing
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: a book. And what I found interesting is you didn't
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: just list names. You had a very specific assumption that
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: you made that My guess is you already know this
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: is making the round. So with Newsome, it is by
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: revealing he's still doing self discovery in his late fifties.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: Shapiro by making his origin story a tragedy and that
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: it may come across a little too glib over time,
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: it won't wear well. Harris confusing her book to her.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: I completely agree with you on the Harris thing. I
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: think I think she's confusing interest in her book and
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: the book to her into interest in her candidacy. And
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: then Bootage, you know, Botag, It to me is the
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: the Bruce Willis sixth sense candidate. Everybody knows he has
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: no chance except him, and it's because you know, he
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: became and the irony is he if Biden, if if
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: there's no COVID, he was the nominee in twenty I'm
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: like eighty percent convinced of that.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: But I do think Bootage has never got a path,
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: No Chuck, forget COVID for a minute. Let's start with Iowa.
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: If the Iowa Democrats get their account locked up, right, he.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: Probably won't, but I still think, but let's let's play
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: it out.
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: The way it will wins Iowa, he gets a clean
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: balance in new Hamshter, he wins in.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: Hampshire, you know, right, But even still it's a split decision,
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: and it's Bernie versus Pete and and there's no Biden
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: in this scenario. Right with with COVID, COVID made it
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: easier for everybody to say, off, screw it, We'll just
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: rally around the old guy. But without that, without COVID,
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: I think it's Bernie and Bootage. And I do think
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: Boothajige wins simply out of absolute fear that Bernie would lose.
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, so let's take all of them. So yeah,
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: So I look, anyway, going back Newsom, Shapiro, Harris, it
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: feels like it feels like you know something on Newsome
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: and Shapiro, or you're already you already think that they've
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: maybe already peaked. I think it's more just like I've
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: heard about these books and what's in them, and I
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: know they're the personalities of all these folks. And look,
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: Newsome's challenge is that, you know, it's not a fair line.
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: Jerry Brown's gonna hear this and get mad at me.
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: But California folks, they're a little flaky. It's the land
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: of fruit and nuts. And Gavin's a good looking guy
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: and comes off as articulate, but he's still doing this
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: self discovery stuff and how old is See, it's just
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: easier to kind of caricature I think him and this book.
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: I've been told that he's coming out with here pretty soon.
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: Pretty raw about him knew his self discovery. On the
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: Shapiro thing, this is more sensitive. But he had this
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: terrible family tragedy that's you know, arsening at the mansion
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: in Harrisburg. The risk for Shapiro is he just uses
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: that as a political origin story to run a presidential
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: campaign and it backfires because it's just too unsubtle about
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: what happened. In the case of Harris, it's a straightforward
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: she thinks folks buying her book beings they wanted to
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: run again, which ain't the case. On Buddha Jedge, he's
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: a smart guy, and his book will show that he's
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: a smart guy, but he's the smartest guy in the room,
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: which is why his future in politics is in a
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: pointive not electoral politics. I think you could pick and
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: he had those four tell you the truth. I chose
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: the Kamala Harris. There's no appetite among Democrats, Chuck to
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: relive anything to do with twenty twenty four. All Right,
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: I completely agree, Joe Biden, come here.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: If you have Biden on your resume, you're done. And
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: this is my issue. I think Pete and Kamala have
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: the same issue.
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: It's a similar challenge. Look who was not on a
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: campaign trail in twenty twenty one. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: Tim Walls, who are the three main actors from the
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty four campaign, could not be fell on anywhere
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: on a campaign trail the following year because the party
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: doesn't want to relive the battle days of twenty four.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: I think that is her challenge, and I think she
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: knows that, and we'll flirt with this, but ultimately she's
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: not going to want to come back to lose a primary.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: What do you make, By the way, let's do a
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: quick little rabbit hole, which is what you and I do.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: What do you make of the California governor's race and
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: the lack of.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: I feel like the field is not sad. Oh.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: I know it's funny to be The prediction markets have
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: Eric Swallwell as the front runner now and you're just
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: like wow, and I'm you know, prediction markets in some
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: places I don't pay attention to California races. I do
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: just because I know it's more Californiaan's throwing money in
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: there than most most other places.
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: We'll see at least one additional candidate. It feels a
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: little bit like the fall of twenty nineteen shock when
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: Mike Bloomberg and Deval Patrick jumped in the late into
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: the Democratic primary for president. Forget Patrick even jumped in.
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: There's a vacuum there.
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: Other than one hundred percent of vacuum.
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: It's the biggest.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: Don't you think Kamala gets talked back. I've heard that
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: they she was Some were trying to tuck her back
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: into it.
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: I think that's I'm that's certainly one scenario. Rick Caruso, who,
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: of course wrong.
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: Caruso is the one that everybody is saying is waiting
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: in the war, waiting in the wings our friend Mike Murphy.
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: Is he really going to run his first Democratic campaign?
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: I know, right? Is this really?
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: Is he going to go full? Is it like I've
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: always thought he wasn't going to do that, that he'd
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: run it independent. I'll be very curious what our buddy
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: mine does.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: What it feels like Caruso is tempted to do mayor
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: what he ran for one so already rather than governor.
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: But we'll see if folks can change his mind. And
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: then you know, if the think about the Democratic ranking
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: member check of the Oversight Committee, Robert Garcia from Long Beach,
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: somebody who liked Jared Moscovitz is one of these gung
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: house Democrats that has a knack for attention and publicity.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe he jumps in. It just feels
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: like there's or maybe somebody from the outside, a sort
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: of Tom Steyer type figure.
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: Well, Styer jumped in, I think thinking it was. I mean, look,
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: I just think Stier's problem is he doesn't wear well
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: yeah right, he's so intense. And I say this sort
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: of out of respect. By the way, you don't become
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: as successful as he is if you don't have an
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: intensity or drive all of those things. But it's not
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: a pleasant it doesn't come across as very accessible, Chuck.
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: I also wonder if Newsom and Newsom's lieutenants may try
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: to get back at maybe Padilla, have Padilla take a
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: look at it again, Tomal, the thing is possible.
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: Well, you know what opposite of this state I think,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: don't underestibate via Ragosa to suddenly charm his way. If
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: they don't, if this field doesn't get better.
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: Well. Also, also let's let's take swallowed seriously for a minutes,
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: speaking of young House Democrats.
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: I know he can raise a ton of money.
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: He knows how to raise money. And that's the that's
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: the that's table stakes out there. You gotta get to
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: the with with money, and I think he can do that.
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: And also I'll tell you a little story here real fast.
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: The day before the election in November now of last year,
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: when California was voting on the ballot measure and reapportionment,
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: I was in San Francisco for the final rally that
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: Newsom had at a labor hall. But it was traded
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: with drama, not things have new, some of his future,
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: but because Pelosi was about to announce her retirement and
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: this is her hometown. So at the press conference after
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: the rally, Gavin's not there. It's just it's it's Pelosi
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: in the House Democrats, including Zoe Lofgren and including Swallwell,
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: and the body language of Pelosi trying to give attention
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: to Swallwell and nudge Swallwell forward to get to the
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: camera as fashionate like Swawell. And I'll tell you you're Swalwell.
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: That's not a bad person to have in your corner.
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: She's well, it's funny you brought up San Francisco. My
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: dark horse candidate to get talked into running is the
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: mayor of San Francisco's daniel lewiy Because he could self
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: fund a raise. He's already seen as like the center
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: left mayor that's not woke and somehow is making San
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: Francisco work right.
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: Well, the point of personal privilege here, I think I
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: was the first national writery work. You usually are to
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: do a big piece on Luriy. I was there for
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: his inauguration in January. In fact, it was such a
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: smart move when you did that. I remember this time
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: last year and I wrote a cable card with with
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: he and his family. He's the anti Gavin. He's not flashy,
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: he's not he's not Swath. There's no gel in that here.
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: He's just a sort of grinder chuck and he's a
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: business type. And but he's got I mean speaking of
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: a nact for publicity. He has figured out the key
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: to being mayor is he got a cell sell sell
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: and boy, he has sold San Francisco and everybody in
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: the press loves a comeback story. This city. There was
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: all the drug user and the homeless nest everything. It's backff,
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: It's back here we are. You know, the super Bowl
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: is going to be there next month in Santa Clara.
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: But it's okay. He has gotten Just count the Wall
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: Street Journal news stories and opinion columns about Daniel Lwry
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: in that city in the last calendar year.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean it is.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: We'll find out.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: At least I've been one of the first people. You say,
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: one of the one of the worst things you could
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: have on your resume to be a national figure is
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: former mayor of San Francisco or former office holder in
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. I just think, like you know, Kamala Harris
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: and Gavin Newsom are never going to become president because
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: of that, right, the perception of San Francisco being sort
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: of our like wild and crazy city, et cetera, et cetera.
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: But Lourie's interesting to me and in some ways, you
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: know there. I don't think a tech self funder is
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: going to be trusted. I think the pitchforks are out
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: everywhere around the country, so I don't think the old well,
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: maybe somebody in Silicon Valley will throw money around. I
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: think Lurie has laundered that image of himself by actually
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: being in office, so he can run as an office holder,
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: not as just.
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: Sort of somebody else who Lord knows craves and craves attention,
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: and it has certainly huge ambitions. And that's Roe Connell,
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: the House member right now.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: I think I heard he already rejected this. I've heard
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: people went to him said, you know, you.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: Can win this. He's just not going to be denied
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: the national state.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: He's not a Californian. I say this with respect. How
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: often when you've had a conversation with Conna does he
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: make sure to know he grew up in Bucks County.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: He does not want to be associated with a California.
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: So he has so far talked himself out of that,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: you know, and in some ways trying to rebrand himself
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: as the guy who moved to California to learn about tech.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: But he's really a kid from.
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: Bucks you know, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: All right, all right, let me get this one more
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: and then I'll get you out of here, I promise.
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: By the end of twenty twenty six, which Republican will
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: emerge is the best position to challenge JD. Vance for
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: the twenty twenty eight nomination. Your fours are Ted Cruz,
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: who I've put in the Supreme Court by now, Ivanka Trump.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: I might I might have done anybody with the Trump
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: last name, not just Ivanka, but we'll put a pin
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: in that.
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: Tucker Carlson or Marco Rubia. What was your answer? I
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: had some fun here, Chuck, because I am a student
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: of the Chris Christie school of Donald J. Trump studies. Uh,
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: And the Chris Christie axiom is everybody around Donald Trump
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: starts with a hundred points on a debit line, and
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: the debit line only goes one direction. It only goes sick. Right.
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: The only exception to this is Ivanka Trump. She does
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: not have that same challenge and Christie's Christie's bid is
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: that the debit line goes south faster for some than others,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: but it's only going one direction. And so if you
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: if why did that, maximum, Chuck, then Ivanka Trump is
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: going to be the person who is best positioned to
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: challenge Vance because Trump will get tired of everybody else, right,
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: why her and not Laura. It's his daughter, I know.
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: I mean blood, blood is thicker than then than the
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: marriage license.
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think we underestimate Trump's desire for
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: you know, just sort of keeping the Trump name.
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: And see, I totally agree with this. I am convinced
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: that a Trump is going to be a candidate. I'm
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: so glad you wrote now. I just don't believe It'savanka.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: I actually, if I can buy stock, or it's Eric,
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: I think Trump. I think you know, it's interesting. Have
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: you did you notice during Eric's book tour he totally
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: floated the idea of running for president himself someday. Yes,
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: he didn't, and he never plays deference to his brother ever, Okay,
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: ever he is. I think there's a weird rivalry between
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: the two. I think it's obvious who Daddy trusts to
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: run the business and who he doesn't trust to run
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: the business. And I think it's obvious who he thinks
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: is the most competent of his kids. I think he
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: thinks it's Eric. I think that's why Laura gets so
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: much stuff. So I do think that you know you're
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: you're in the same arena. I'man belief system my men,
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: which is Trump is not going to let Vance have
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: this easy. He may eventually come around to Vance, but
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: he's going to This is going to be something Vance
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: is going to have to He may have to get
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: more I mean, he may have to get thicker knee pads.
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: Vance was anti Trump down now he's pro Trump. What's
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: to say he couldn't be anti Trump again, Ivonka.
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: Especially if he's sitting at thirty one percent. Vance is machiavelliant,
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: that's right. Peter Thial is going to be telling him, Hey,
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: maybe time to ditch Trump.
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: Eric and Ivanka Trump are never going to be anti
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: Trump because their last name was Trump. So it's like
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: this is the family project.
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is more likely than folks realize.
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: I know. And we're so dismissive. We're collectively dismissive of
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: it because we're always dismissive of things we've never seen before.
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: And the thing with Donald Trump, with we all have
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: had to learn is just because it hasn't had and
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean it.
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: Well, there was a column I was going to write
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: if Laura Trump had run for the Senate. I wanted
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: to write this. Now she obviously that didn't do it,
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: but I think her not running was significant because if
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: she had run, it would have been very important chuckle,
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: because if she was to have won, it would have
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: perpetuated the Trump name and created the Trump dynasty. I
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: know liberals are going to hate to hear that, but
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: that's one step closer to making this a longer term project.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: It makes it two generations of Trump's. I just think
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: Laura took a pass in twenty six North Carolina. I
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: don't think that we're going to have the next generation
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: of Trump's take a pass forever, whether it's twenty eight
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: or thirty. I remind you, will remind you of two cycles.
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: Nineteen ninety two, George HW. Bush loses a reelection. The
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: following cycle of nineteen ninety four, his two sons run
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: for governor of to the biggest states in the country.
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: One wins, one loses. But the point is that one
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: cycle between the two sons of the president running for governor.
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: The Trump's are nobles, the ambitious of the Bushes.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: There are four names that there are four names out
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: there in American history that have produced multiple presidents or
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: close to presidents, right, and it's it's the Adams is
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: the Roosevelts, the Bushes, and the Kennedy's, and Trump wants
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: to be all of them.
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: Of course he does. I mean back to Mount Rushmore.
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: He wants, you know, literally but also better for k
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: He wants to be on Rushmore. And one of the
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: ways you do that is you name stuff after yourself.
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: You get peace prizes, you do big trade deals with countries.
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: That you get a kid elected, and you get a
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: sign elected.
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: And you get a sign one who can carry the
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: banner going forward. We haven't talked about this yet, but
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: this is important. Twenty twenty six. The biggest China dove
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: in Washington is Donald Trump, right always has Trump is
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: a total China dove. Look, it was so cla when
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: he was asked at mar Lago about the new Trump
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: class of chefs. Speaking of Trump namestuff after himself, he said,
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: is this is this being done to send a message
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: of containment or whatever against the Chinese? He said, no, no,
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: no, no no. We got along with China very very well.
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, he doesn't want to be in conflict with China.
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: He wants to deals with China. Schuck. I think twenty
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: twenty six will see Trump and en g standing together
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: in Beijing signing a major deal. Now, who knows what
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: the actual details are going to be. Trump doesn't care
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: about that, but the image is going to be indelible.
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: Trump will say I brought the two superpowers of the
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: world together. I preempted World War three, and I have
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: done this great personal diplomacy and brought brought our great
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: nations together. I'm telling you it's gonna happen in twenty
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: twenty six.
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: And that will be politically unpopular both sides of the eye.
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: Getting neck cozy with China. That could be what splinters
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: his coalition. Yeah, you know, the dirty little secret about
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: the twenty twelve presidential election is how much China bashing
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: helped Obama defeat Romney. Yes, in the in the industry,
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: in the agricultural and industrial Midwest, right, And I just
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: you know, I don't.
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: Think every time Trump says he's for h one, BV
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: says because we can't do those jobs in America, says, yeah,
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: we're gonna have Chinese kids here studying at universities. We
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: need their money. It's what he actually believes.
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: Because the MAGA hates it. Now, the true believers in
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: MAGA hate it. Dead fun with Lane Kiff, the Lane
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: Kiff and experience in Aution. We are speaking the night
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: the morning after Ole misses, upset of Georgia. Yes, and
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: the and the lesser and the and the changing of
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: the guard, the humiliation. I'm I'm a what Alabama is
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: going through. I went through in two thousand and four,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: two thousand and five with Miami, where you're a you're
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: you're still a dynasty, but you could feel the exhaust
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: fumes are catching up. Other teams have caught up. For Miami,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: it was in a humiliation by LSU actually in a
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: Peach Bowl we lost forty two to three. It just
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: sort of that was it. That's when you knew it
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: was over. The dynasty was ending, a pay the era
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: was ending for Miami for that period that Indiana loss
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: felt that way. I'm going in a long about way
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: of this. Klen de Bor now has eight losses in
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: two years. It took Nick Saban five years to get
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: eight losses. Another three loss or worse season in Tuscaloosa
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: means he's gone by the end of twenty six. Yes,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: I think Klein de Bor is miserable. I think it's
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: it sucks. The ghost you're chasing lives in Tuscalaloosa. He's
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: on ESPN all the time. God bless him. I love
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: bet Man. I love Nick Saban, Okay, i'm a.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: I'm a.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: I love the guy I would I do. I want him.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: I want him to be commissioned. I think his idea
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: uh to to to move spring practices in the and
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: the portal to May and June makes like total sense.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: So, but I think the choice you left out on
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: on Lane Kiff and experience in l s U will
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: be drama and debacle of a year, et cetera, et cetera.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: The one thing you leave out is him leaving for Alabama.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: But I think there is one job. He was the
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: reason he didn't sign that deal with LSU as quickly
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: as he did is he was waiting to see if
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: Alabama would lose the Iron Bowl to Auburn. He was
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: waiting to see if Alabama to get left out of
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: the play. He if the Alabama job opens up, he
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: wants it. I'm telling you he wants it, and Lane
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: kit and it and I and I think especially if
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: LSU does pretty well next year, which if they use
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: old Missus roster.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: They will get it in fairness to myself, I haven't
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: written that. I wrote it before Bama got sped Indiana.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: I know you did. So there was no scenario in
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: which kiln to Boor was going to be on the
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: hot seat in twenty twenty six. There is now had
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: gone to or won a national title this year. Now
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: that said, I agree, kill the Bore loses three to
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: five games this fall in Alabama, it's going to be hard,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: uh up for him to hang on. And yeah, Kiffin
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: the mercenario, he would certainly love to hop the Bama.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: There's there's no question about it. I wonder if the
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: Boor self deports Joe. I think he does. I think
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: he would have.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: I think if the Michigan I think the Michigan job
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: is such a potential nightmare scenario that anybody in there,
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: like I, you want to I'll be the guy after
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: the next guy in Michigan.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: Right like that, Let's let's stop bearing the leader and
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: talk about what's actually on your mind, which is the
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: University of Miami Hurricanes return to greatness. I mean, first
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: of all, I'm happy for you as your friend, that
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: your your experience in this.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: We're doing it the right way. That we're doing it
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: in a sustainable way, that's all. I think it's pretty sustainable.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: We'll see this so good for the game of college football.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: Look at this Final four.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: Jonathan Bama and Clemson were winning every other year. We're
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: deadening for the national game to have a West Coast
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: team like Oregon really competitive every year on upstart Big
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: Ten that never had a football for Again.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: We've culturally all four regions of this country are representing
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: because Miami is not a southern school. Miami really is
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: an East coast school, right. Oh Miss is the southern school,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: Indiana's the Midwestern school, Oregon is the West coast school.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: We really have the three major cultural regions all represented
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: in this Final four, which is always what's made college
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: football better than the other sports because of this ability
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: to have fan bases in diverse cultural.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: The only part of the country that didn't have a
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: real real foot was the Northeast because it's a pro
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: sports reagion never wanted to be right. Well, you could
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: argue that Miami surg has Northeast.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: Miami is the team of the Northeast, right, because that's
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: what I mean. Culturally, Miami is the combination of the
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: East Coast and the northeast. You know, it just happens
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: to be in the in the in in the south.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: It's kind of down basketball.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: Back in the day, you know the joke of Florida,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: the farther south you go, the farther north.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: You go north. You got right, although nowadays the further
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: south you go in Florida, like the further south you
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: go into the Caribbean itself. So a lot of America.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: But what is the what is the vibe of an
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: LSU world? I know you're pretty you're pretty connected with.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: These days about all that are really really hopeful that
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: that Lane can do this. There's this mentality that we
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: have to have the biggest, the best, the shiniest the
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: first things, think both loves, get Saban to come back. Second,
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: and think was who's the next best current coach? And
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: it was Laying Kiffin.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: So why wasn't it Signetti. Why didn't they throw a
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: barrel of money? Because actually that's who I think Alabama's
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: going to go at.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: Athleen kiffens a bigger name. Look, I think summer all
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: at two Lane is now going to Florida was more
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: of an up and comer. I tell my Lsu brother
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: in this, I said, guys, Nick Saban was not Nick
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: Saban when he came to Baton Rouge. Right, it was
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: the Michigan state coach.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: No, but he had won there. But let me but
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: that in the way it works now you realize in
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: college because I look at how you know why Mario
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: Christobal got the job because he had a super pack
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: waiting to go, Meaning just like in politics, now, you're
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: a better candidate for a job if you also can
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: bring donors to the situation.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: And Mario had it.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: There was a donor community in South Florida that was
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: ready to cut checks if Mario has made the coach.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: If Manny was Diaz was kept the coach a very
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: good coach, mind you, okay, but if he was, he
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: the same amount of donors weren't going to write as
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: big as checks. So the point is is that Mario
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: came in with Joey Maguire came in with checks. Right,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: I think this is the new world. You've got to
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: bring Lane Kiffin brings money, gott to bring he said,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: just like with you know, how are you a viable
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: senate candidate to the John Thuns and Chuck Schumers In
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: the world.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: I haven't any rich friends if you ask LSU fans
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: probably though what's over under on Lane's tenure basically for years,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: you know. Anyway, More importantly, I'm happy for you. It's
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: gonna be means uh, it's cool to see there were
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: the return to greatness. It's we haven't returned yet. We're
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: knocking on the door in Miami. There's only one thing
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: that counts championships. We've never heard about old mister a
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: minute too, because city has obviously, I mean speaking of
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: a state film of insecurities. Oh gosh, in so many categories, right,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: you know, they always have the best part aready in
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: the grove, but they do always have the best success
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: on the field, and here they have this dream season.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: Their coach abandons them, breaks their heart and they still
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: are are are winning And how a you have to
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: win the national titles? I don't think this. I mean,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: obviously Indiana has been a cool story nationally and this
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: has really griped Mississippi like I don't think any other
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: story this year because it just means so much to them,
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: right I.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: You know it's interesting is is that this is one
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: of those where there are there are good narratives for
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: whatever winner we get. The Indiana narrative is obvious, even
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: like Signetti said it the other day.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's kind of.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: A sports movie, right, but one could argue Ole Miss
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: is a sports movie. The coach leaves and it's a
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: rally around. But even Oregon and Miami have their own narratives, right.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: Oregon has been this organ's been knocking on the door,
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: but not really. They've been allowed into the into the
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: club with a with a chaperone, but they've never been
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: able to Actually they're not They don't have membership. They're
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: always invited, but they've never actually earned a membership into
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: the club. Even Miami has an old card into the
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: club right there. Now, they they're the lone blue blood
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: left and I've never thought of Miami as a blue blood,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: but historically they have the resume of one stories.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: You can see the movie for a little Miss to
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: Archie Manning shows up atice, you know, and uh gets
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: the team fired up and they play by the way
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: they've played. Archie clips last night in the Superdome during
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: the Sugar Bowl. That's fun and it's incredible the hold
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: he still has on that program. He's a great guy,
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: and he still means so much to that program. The
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: crowd went crazy.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: The signs of the Mannings. By the way, does a
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: Manning win office before a Trump child wins office?
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: What do you think? I think the meetings will stick
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: to commercials and ESPN. I think and we'll stay, we'll stay.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: One of them will get talked into running for something.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: You know it Cooper. Who knows which one of them
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: it is?
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: Cooper?
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: Eli Peyton.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: I think I think the Manning crew remembers the Michael
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: Jordan Maxim and Michael Jordan Maxim was Republicans by sneakers
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: too well.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: They're very savvy, they are the very sad.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: They've got They've got a fairly a political identity, and
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: which is hard in this era. It's really hard in
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: this era. And I think they probably prefer to keep
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: that for a while. You know, uh k Mark you,
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: how do you?
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: How do you feel as a uv A guy about
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: James Madison?
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: Do you did you pull for him? Are we a little?
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: I think JMU was a great one double a school
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: that would have been it's good for Virginia. I look,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: I I grew up to hearing for UVA basketball and
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: football growing up in Virginia and George Welsh was an
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: incredible coach, and those teams were fantastic in the nineties
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: and and and and the ads. It's just hard to
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: sustain the model and football year at a UVA a
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: competitive football program, but if they had a hell of
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: a year. Basketball is more interesting there because of the
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: portal era, uh and because of what Bennett put together.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: And I think, you know, I know Ryan Otum out
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: to college with them. Ryan Otum has got I think,
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: great promise. It's gonna be fun to watch UVA basketball
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: this year.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: I'm excited for him. And I know there's a lot
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: of a lot of our UVA friends, Danielle Jones and Jones.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, everybody's pull it for Ryan, right like there
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: is a there's a big community behind him.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: So that's fun. Yeah, And look, I think I think
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: he's taking that program in the right direction. And I
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: think they have great, great problems. It's just tough chucking.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: All these coaches every year are putting together at least
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: four new kids on the court, uh, if not five,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: and there's just not much continuity.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: Here's what it does put a premium on is I
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: do think there's an extra premium. And this is true
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: now in college football, in it with the coordinators and
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: in college basketball with the coaches. There's an extra premium
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: on actually coaching.
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: It used to be you had to be a recruiter
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: and all this stuff, but you've got to because the
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: differentiators in football now are the quarterback and the coach.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: The different because talent is going to be evened out, right,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: the market is going to is going to essentially even
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: it out. Ditto in basketball, so the distinctions are going
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: to be coaching schemes and chemistry and things like that
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: that should make it more exciting. I think college basketball
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: ten years from now is going to be deeper and better. Uh,
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: and it's going to be as high quality as college
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: basketball was when you and I were growing up in
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: the eighties.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: I really gotta be. Because of nil. Well, there's got
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: to be some rules. There's got to go will be
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: I know, you know there's a rebellion now because some
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: of these kids who are drafted and blading the DEALI
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: are now coming back to play in college. There's got
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: to be some regulation. But I agree it's got huge potential.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, who's a terrible spokesperson for lamenting about
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: the Nili Well, John, he's got to look just. He
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: may be right about his complaints, but you're like, dude,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: you know you benefited in a system that allowed Kentucky
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: to benefit in ways that we still don't know the truth. Okay,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: I guess you know. The point is you, John Calipari,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: are upset that you don't get to create the velvet
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: rope that you benefited from for a long time. So,
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: while again his complaints are correct, he's a terrible spokesperson
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: to be complaining.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: All right, Chuck Todd, don't go to Fayville anytime soon.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: I love my friends in Fade Phil. I don't think
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: they're so you know, let's let's see if if I
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: had you know, I'm an old A ten guy, John Calipario,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: is what if gw at those games? Those games were
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: at that fantas always, we own them. We are the
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: only A ten team that owned you mass in those
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: Keep the rabbit hole.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: Now we should end on Marcus Cambia you. Oh my god,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: Happy New Year man, the late Happy New Year, my friend. Yes,
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: it's good to see you, Artile. Happy New Year.