Latest / Scene Projects Sports Network / Prop Laboratory: Psychology, Game Environments, and Smarter Sports Betting

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Prop Laboratory: Psychology, Game Environments, and Smarter Sports Betting · Scene Projects Sports Network

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Welcome into the SCENE Project Sports Network.
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I am your host, Bubba Starts, and with me today, sports wagering educator and analyst and
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the founder of Prop Laboratory, Jared Goering.
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Jared, welcome to the show.
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Glad to be here.
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Thanks for having me.
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Awesome, man.
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Well, we've been talking a bit off off camera already, and there's so much to dig into with
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where sports betting and trading and wagers and and everything has gone, especially in the last
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decade and and, you know, escalating even more, I would say, in the last five years.
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Really excited to get into what you're doing because I think it's extremely unique in the
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analysis and the education factors that you're trying to bring, not just in the wagers
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themselves, but in the mental health side of of wagering and being a sports bettor as well.
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So really excited to get into the conversation.
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Before we get too deep in everything, though, just wanna get a little bit of your backstory,
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and then we'll pick it up from there.
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Okay.
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So, I'm a 40 year old sports nut.
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I was bartender, bar manager, and a mediocre sports bettor on the side.
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Then about a year ago, my wife and I decided to travel across Central America with our daughter
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to kinda see if we collect living in other places, and that's changed my life for many
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reasons.
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So, basically, I was in a country where I couldn't work legally, and I had no access to
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traditional sports books.
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So I was left to kind of sit and basically rethink how I wanted to approach sports betting
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now that I couldn't bet.
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And I created Prop Laboratory, which is a sports betting content company that, has two
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similar, connecting elements.
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The first element is education.
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I do this through, basic articles for new or intermediate betters.
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And then, I transitioned that to...
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I wrote a book called the decision before the decision.
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That goes deeper into my betting philosophy, which, I'll get into, and I I created in
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Central America.
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And then the other element is, modeling and making picks, kind of a proof of concept to
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show that my theory, worked, basically.
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So all started in Central America.
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Like I said, I couldn't work, and I couldn't bet, and I was basically sitting doing nothing.
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So I started to write articles, to help educate new betters because I find that I was a huge
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sports fan, but I didn't know anything about betting, and I lost a lot at the start.
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And I found that even though, personally, I grew up playing football, so I had discipline,
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the same discipline I used to, clean up my life in my early thirties.
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So I wasn't maxing on my credit cards.
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I wasn't, spending my rent money on betting, but I still struggled, especially psych...
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Psychologically with the stresses of betting.
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And I wanted to help people with this, so I started to examine my own approach.
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And I found that, me, likewise, to a lot of other betters, were asking the right questions
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in the wrong order.
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And then I started to, break it down, and I created, my three layer approach, which I can
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get more into if you want.
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But it basically attempts to make better bets, but also eliminate the amount of bets you need
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to analyze, reduce your research, and reduce your, psychological stress.
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And I think to me, that was the most, you know, that was the most interesting part of us
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starting to talk and why I wanted to have you on the show and and hopefully in the future
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being a bigger part of of our network because so many of the people that, you know, are
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connecting with our content are betting or wagering or or trading or or whatever they're
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doing out there.
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I I I can't even keep up.
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It used to just be the sports books, and now people are trading and and, you know, we don't
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need to shout out every platform that people can throw money at, but there's a lot of them.
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And it poses a lot of different challenges to the people that are, you know, betting and want
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to engage with sports wagering in that way.
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But not a lot of people are talking about the aspects that you are.
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The decision before the decision, great name for a book, really, you know, I I can
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appreciate that.
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As someone who...
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I grew up in a gambling town.
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Deadwood, South Dakota, tiny little town.
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It's all built on legalized gambling.
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When sports books came in just a few years ago, it was a huge explosion.
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And I saw a lot of friends who went down a darker path with that.
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Right?
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And you you think you know everything, and I think more dangerous as an early sports better
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to win than it is to lose early on because those those hooks get sunk in pretty deep and
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winning that thrill of victory, but nothing can prepare you for that agony and sometimes the
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financial aspects of losing and and continuing to lose over a long period of time.
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So really found that intriguing.
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I love what you're doing and and in that aspect.
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Highly recommend everyone, go and get the book and and really start there.
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If you're thinking about, you know, sports wagering or you already are doing it, I highly
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recommend that you go and educate yourself on these mental health and psychological factors
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because you're going to face them.
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And I think it's unavoidable.
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Would would you, agree with that, Jared?
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Yeah.
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I mean, sports are completely unpredictable.
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I also focus on, player prop betting, which gives you more room for taking advantage of
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missed lines, but also anything could happen.
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Quick twenty second story.
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I once spent way too much on a three leg WNBA parlay.
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The first two legs hit.
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The third leg, Brittany Griner needed 16 points.
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She had 14 right before half.
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I'm gonna win.
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This is so easy.
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She punches an opposing player, gets thrown out.
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I lose the bet.
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This is not something that modeling or research can account for.
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I I think I said it to you before.
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Betting is one of the loneliest things you can do because everyone talks about their
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successes.
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No one really talks about their losses and...
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Not even with their partners, and you kinda keep that secret.
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It's kinda like fights.
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Like, you don't talk about the time you got beat up and, you know, your partner had to pick
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you off the ground.
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It's like, no one talks about that.
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Everyone wants to basically say you're gonna win.
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You go...
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And the truth of it is is about less than 5% of betters actually are profitable over time.
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And like you said, the early wins, the early confidence are quickly rewarded, but it hurts
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you in the long run.
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And that discipline, that understanding that good decisions lose and bad decisions win, is
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something I had to really learn that guided that guided me to kinda create all of this
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content.
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Yeah.
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And I think this is a good point where we can dig in a little bit to, you know, the the
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pillars, and you don't have to go too in-depth on everything because we want people to to buy
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the book, and we want them to subscribe to the Substack as well.
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But maybe give us a quick, overview, of kind of the pillars of your process and and the system
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that, you know, not only you've developed for others, but that I'm sure that you would use
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yourself if you were going into betting.
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Yeah.
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So I I I post I post bets every day.
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I don't get to make the bets because of where I live, but I do post them on a platform.
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So I I...
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This is all, this isn't theory.
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This is something that I do.
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So, basically, I found that in player props specifically, people are asking the question
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of...
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They start with the player, and then they go, okay.
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He hit that eight out of 10 times.
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They start creating research around this initial, bias view.
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And I find that it was backwards.
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I was sitting, and I was reading, the book, The Art of War, and there's something that he...
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Sun Tzu said, which is terrain is is everything.
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So it doesn't matter if you have the fastest horses.
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If the field is muddy, then your advantage is is nullified.
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And I really thought about that, and it made me think, why are we asking about the player
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first?
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We need to model and analyze the game to score the game environment to see if that type of
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game allows the outcome you want, at scale.
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So, basically, what I'm trying to say is that if you start with the player, you might make a
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right decision...
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A bad decision, but it it might win.
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Basically, you need to start with the environment, and that is what I call
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permission.
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So does the environment give you permission to analyze a player?
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Without that, I don't analyze the game.
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And this is one of my key features, which is out of a 15 game slate, let's say basketball or
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whatever.
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If I analyze the game environments, then maybe four have the type of environment that I'm
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looking for.
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And then I go into the player, and then I go into more detail.
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Because I found there is no reward in spending three hours convincing yourself to make a bet
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when you could have spent three minutes and rejected it.
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So what I do is I score the game environment, and it's gonna tell me the style of game.
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And this is all using advanced, statistics.
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Normal statistics tell you what happened.
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They don't really predict the future.
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Advanced statistics tell you what should happen.
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So it's gonna tell me, a, what type of game it's gonna be and what type of props should be
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available.
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Quick example, for a football game, it's...
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Like, obviously, weather is important, but the way the two teams play is gonna tell you if one
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team, has a deadly pass rush and the other team relies on downfield throwing, then I don't
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think there's gonna be time for that to develop.
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And maybe looking at that quarterback's yardage is...
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Even though it's Patrick Mahomes, isn't going to be, profitable in the long term.
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So the first layer is permission, and then the second layer is expression.
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So what type of player will, benefit from this type of game environment?
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If it's a heavy rebounding style game, then maybe a center who's good rebounder is the
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player you wanna look at rather than the shooting guard who scores 26 points a game.
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Then the third layer is pricing.
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Because even if you have a game environment that basically says that you're gonna have prop
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opportunities and you have a player that expresses this opportunity perfectly, if the
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price isn't good...
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So, basically, if the sportsbook has already priced this research into it, then it doesn't
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matter how good your research is, then it's a no bet.
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Because if it's...
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The guy averages 80 rushing yards a game and you think that it's a good environment, he
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could get 85 to 90.
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If the line is a 100, then it doesn't matter how good your research is.
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You you need to pass.
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So the way this works is is that it basically limits the amount of players and the amount of
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research that you do, And then you kind of only...
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Because we only have a...
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If...
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We don't have infinite amount of attention.
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So by directing all of our attention in the games that matter, obviously, it permits better
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research, but also, I don't worry about the bets that I don't take, which is a huge thing.
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I used to always be like, oh, I should've took in that bet and it won.
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Now I'm like, I'm happy that bet won for someone else, but, statistically, it's not
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gonna win out of a 100 times.
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And that's the only thing that really matters if you want to be profitable long term.
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If you are just doing this for fun and you have couple 100 extra bucks you wanna waste, do what
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you have to do.
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But if you want to be profitable long term, and I'm not guaranteeing probability, but if you
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wanna be profitable long term, it's about making good decisions in uncertainty, which is
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all sports betting is.
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Yeah.
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And in many respects Right.
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That's about soon as you...
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Yeah.
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Well, as soon as you make that bet, that money's gone.
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And and consider it a loss.
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Don't don't count your chickens before they hatch, if you will, to to bring up an old
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colloquialism.
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You know, you talked about environment, and I think a great example of that just a few weeks
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ago, obviously, on the network, we talk a lot of Vikings football, and you were looking at a
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field in Chicago that turned into a fishbowl.
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Right?
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So you are obviously looking at that game, looking at weather forecast ahead of time and
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going, oh, nobody's gonna play well in those conditions.
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I'm not looking at any...
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I don't care what the lines are on any player on that field that day.
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I'm not betting that and moving on.
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And I think that's a really powerful, for people who are betting.
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And and another instance that, you know, in a situation that you're doing, a lot of people
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are only betting on the team that they love.
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And that could be very hard because now you're getting your emotions involved rather than an
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analytical side of your brain.
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And I think that's really something, great that people can take away from the education that
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you provide is to...
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If you want to be a profitable better over a long span, you can't start with your heart.
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You have to start with the analytics and starting from a position of I'm here to make
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good bets, not to bet on a a player or a team that I'm emotionally invested in.
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Yeah.
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I mean, especially with player props, people have...
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And it's one of the reason I do love it, but people have a personal connection with these
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guys.
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I watch college football.
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I follow high school recruiting.
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So I feel like I've I've known Trevor Trevor Lawrence since he was 14 years old, and that is
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an issue when you wanna bet.
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Because if you feel like you know more than you know, you have to realize that the sports books
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have data that has taken everything you know into account.
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So it's betting with your heart, betting with a a bias, believing just like...
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Or or even, if someone lost you about last week thinking that they are unbettable moving
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forward is is a fallacy.
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And I just wanna clarify one thing.
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When I say environment, I don't usually talk about the actual, weather.
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It's more of the game style that's supposed to be played.
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To use your Vikings as an example, they play a lot of games that I term as rock fights, and
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those are inefficient, dirty games that basically are too hard to model because prop
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lines, they are at the median, so they're at their averages usually.
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And if you are betting on something that's an average thing to happen, then you're probably
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gonna lose more than 50% of the time.
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You need to find game environments where are advantageous.
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So, basically, the Vikings against another team, the way they play might have been a
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better fit for prop betting.
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And then the weather is on top of that, but the game environment is more of a style of game
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that's supposed to be played.
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Well...
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And not all games are played outdoors.
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Right?
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Basketball doesn't have, you know, factors of of weather involved, hockey the same way,
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unless we're talking, you know, winter classics, which probably not touching any of
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those games anyway.
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You know?
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So the...
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There...
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Sometimes, and not all sports have all factors that are involved, in the process.
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So, I appreciate you kinda clarifying that for the listeners and people that'll be, you know,
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kind of following along on this content.
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It's...
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There's just so much to it, and I'm not a better because, one, I just don't have the time
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to go into it.
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And then, obviously, you spend, you know, a pretty good portion of your days and weeks, you
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know, digging into this and consuming, you know, the analytics of it, if not the games
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themselves and and really digging into those.
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Does it change the way...
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And and has it changed the way from, you know, your early days?
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You've been a starts nut your whole life.
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When you started betting, did it change the way that you watch sports?
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And did it, you know, did it hinder you from enjoying it, in some aspects?
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It does completely change the way I look at sports.
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When I see, let's say, a basketball game with two efficient offenses, in my mind, efficiency
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was...
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It's gonna be clean basketball.
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It's going to...
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It might be clean basketball, but that doesn't...
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Too efficient offenses means that there's no volatility, and there's...
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That's bad for better.
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But you actually want inefficiencies.
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You want mistakes that can compound.
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So, basically, yeah, it did it did change the way I looked at sports.
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It changed the way I need to analyze statistics.
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And, yes, it has, to some degree, soured the way I look at some sports because I look at it
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from an analytical perspective and less fandom.
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I had to get rid of the fandom because when someone loses you three straight bets, then
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your natural fan in you is that guy sucks.
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Or I'm never gonna bet on that team.
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And it's like, you...
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That...
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You're gonna you're gonna lose that way.
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But it has given me less bias.
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So when I start analyzing a betting slate, I don't think about any players.
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I don't think about any preconceived notions.
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I just run the numbers and let them kind of guide me.
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So to answer your question, I look at it as a more analytical aspect, which I I love, but it
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it has ruined the random sports game where I'm not able to turn it off and just enjoy.
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I'm always thinking about what the the sis...
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The...
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What the statistics were telling me and...
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Yeah.
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So it kind of has ruined the the love of certain sports.
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So I don't bet on my teams.
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I like to just watch my teams.
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All my Toronto teams, the Miami Hurricanes are my favorite team.
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I stay away.
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That way, I'm able to enjoy the ups and downs as a normal sports fan and then leave the
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betting for...
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Even if it's great opportunities, I I just don't touch it because it's just...
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It's beyond emotional.
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It's just like I I...
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Sports, I wanna feel like a a fan.
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I wanna feel like a kid sometimes.
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Betting does not allow that.
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Yeah.
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The last thing you wanna do is feel crappy after a win.
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Yeah.
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Right?
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That's...
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It...
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It's a double edged sword.
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It's like, you're gonna lose either way.
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You're gonna lose or you're gonna win angry, and, it's just better better to just watch your
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team blow the World Series in the ninth inning and just deal with it.
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Brutal, Jared.
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Yeah.
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You shout out to the Blue Jays who had a terrific season, and you get that close.
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It hurts.
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Sports hurts.
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And sometimes they can hurt a lot more when you're putting money on the line with your
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team.
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Putting your heart and your wallet on the line at the same time, can be completely
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demoralizing.
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Yeah.
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And, everything I'm talking about is database, but, like, I'm still human.
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I lose bets.
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I bet on my own teams.
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That's another reason I I I stay away because I just if I really care about something, if I
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spend so much time on one game, I lose because I just...
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The...
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Nothing in life can be obsessed over and given so much attention.
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Everything needs to be equal...
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Equally distributed.
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And, yeah, I just find, separating the love of watching sports and betting has been key for
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me.
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And, yeah, it's having a life outside of sports betting, even sports has been very important.
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I have a family.
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I just try to, you know, not, follow my phone, and it's hard.
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But, it's just try to compartmentalize my life and have betting as a one avenue of making
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money, not all...
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Be all and end all because that's...
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The pressure and everything's, it's it's not good.
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You've talked a lot about biases.
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And is it, you know, kind of a strong piece of advice to leave those at the door as soon as
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you're committed to making a bet and starting from that point of you have to leave whatever
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emotion and whatever you brought in before coming to the decision to make a bet and really
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using just the analytical side of your mind and looking at the numbers to do that.
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Do you think that's a sound piece of advice for people who are just beginning or have been, you
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know, well into their betting careers?
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I would say that's the main piece of advice.
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You have to realize the opponent.
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The opponent is the sports book.
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The sports book has no emotions.
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The sports book is a billion dollar business.
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It doesn't doesn't lose.
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You need to think like a sports book.
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And, sports book, when they put their lines out, aren't like, oh, this guy's score...
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Like, they don't have emotion.
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They have quantum computers that spit out data, and you need to think like them to have a
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chance to compete with them.
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And even more, if you're on, from prediction markets, that's peer to peer, but you have to
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realize that the peers you're going against, the the good ones, are not betting emotional.
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They are betting with data.
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And I think that's that's just a...
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That's just the way it goes, and you need to understand your opponent, like I said.
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And also understand, like, when I I used to play sports, you can be raw raw or pumped up,
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but you don't have technique.
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If you don't have the research, if you haven't done your due diligence, it doesn't matter how
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how much, sniffing salt you took, you're not going to win.
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You need to think like an athlete.
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You need to think like a sports book.
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And then that way, strips away emotion and just technique.
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Something you brought up earlier that that kind of intrigued me was, you know, efficiency and
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and that it was...
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You were almost looking for inefficiency as a, you know, as more of what you were looking for
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in identifying as those bets.
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Is it...
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And maybe I'm gonna frame this wrong, but but I'm gonna kinda throw it out here.
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Is it safer almost to bet on bad teams than it is or easier to bet on worse teams than it is
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to bet on good teams, especially when they're playing one another?
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Yeah.
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So it all depends on the opponent and what you're looking for.
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But, yeah, a 100%.
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So basketball, basketball is huge into that.
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You...
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Two good teams that are great defensively and efficient on offense are usually going to
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produce results that hang around the meeting, because it doesn't snowball.
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If you watch two bad teams who turn the ball over, shoot a bunch of threes, these things
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stack.
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The same thing as, or in football, an example, is teams that turn the ball over short fields.
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Like, these...
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That's good for spread betting.
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But if your team keeps giving other teams short field, well, the other team isn't traveling 80
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yards, and their props are probably gonna be low even though they won 35 nothing.
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Hockey, an example, is penalties.
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If team doesn't take many penalties, then there's...
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Or they're very defense button down defensive team.
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Basically, what I'm saying is if efficiency and everything goes to the game script that the
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sports book thinks is gonna happen, then the lines are gonna...
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The outcomes are gonna be near the lines.
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You want inefficient, volatile situations.
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Same thing with stocks.
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You don't want something that is consistent.
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You want something that's volatile so you can really catch its ups and downs.
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Side note is, caveat is, volatility can sting you very badly.
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So it's kinda finding that
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way street.
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Yeah.
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But finding two bad teams that just can't get it right and are gonna keep, giving big runs
25:37
up, And then these are things you want.
25:40
Those good teams tend to be efficient, and they tend to kind of just give you a coin flip
25:48
result.
25:48
And with the sports books, you're already looking into detail, you're already at a
25:53
disadvantage.
25:53
You're starting out of...
25:54
Like, they're starting at a 52% win advantage if...
25:58
For spreads.
25:58
So it's like you're already losing 2%.
26:01
So your chance of winning coin flips over a thousand coin flips, pretty pretty low in the
26:07
long run.
26:07
So...
26:08
And this this is counterintuitive.
26:11
It took me a while when I was writing my book to get my head around it, but the more I looked
26:15
at the stats, it's...
26:16
You want inefficient, volatile games that, sportsbooks cannot account for.
26:23
Yeah.
26:24
And and, honestly, it makes perfect sense.
26:26
I...
26:26
Like you said, a little counterintuitive.
26:29
You would think that the the best, players and teams in the world would be safer safer bets,
26:35
but, ultimately, it's not because you're looking to cash in.
26:38
And I think that is where the the the wisdom that you're sharing with us really lies is in
26:46
being, in that space of counterintuitiveness.
26:49
Right?
26:50
And saying, hey.
26:51
It it doesn't.
26:52
It's hard to get your mind wrapped around it, but it's the reason that, you know, probably a
26:59
lot of the best bettors and profitable bettors in the world are doing exactly what you're
27:04
talking about.
27:05
And, that's...
27:06
I'm very grateful for that.
27:07
One thing I wanna touch on before we get out of here, Jared, you mentioned your partner and how
27:12
supportive your wife is, and has been throughout your life and your history of
27:18
betting.
27:19
How important is that factor?
27:20
Now not everyone has, you know, a a wife a at home or or a partner and...
27:25
For the ladies that are betting, a husband, you know, that's there that may be, you know, as
27:31
supportive, but how important is those kind of personal relationships in the world of of sport
27:38
betting?
27:40
I I...
27:41
It's a huge, huge plus.
27:43
I think in anything in life, you need to communicate and talk about, your feelings, your
27:51
ups, your downs, and let other people who are not, like, so emotionally invested kind of
27:59
listen to you and give their opinion on on what they're hearing.
28:04
You know?
28:05
Nothing nothing should be done in secret because it's just going to basically pile on
28:13
you.
28:13
And, I think having a partner that is supportive, but also you need to have a partner
28:20
that's honest with you.
28:21
My wife several times before is, like, I don't...
28:25
Why are you sports betting?
28:26
Why are we...
28:26
Why you keep doing this if it's putting you in a bad mood?
28:29
It's it's doing this to our day, and I had to, just be open to hearing this and understanding
28:37
that, what's going on in my head might not be what's actually happening, on the on the
28:44
outside.
28:45
And, talking about, my losses and my downfalls and all of that, helped me create this this
28:54
content.
28:56
But, yeah, I mean, it's all about it's all about having people support you because you
29:01
cannot do this alone.
29:03
And it's also why I'm doing this is that you're not alone.
29:06
Nothing...
29:07
There has been a better or a person who has failed like you failed and succeeded like you
29:12
succeeded, and you can all learn from each other.
29:16
And that's...
29:17
It's my my my my main point.
29:19
And luckily, I've just, yeah, had someone who stood by me and supported me and also, tells me
29:28
when, I'm kind of...
29:29
You know?
29:30
I I get deep into the numbers, and sometimes she has to reel me back in.
29:34
But she listens, and that's kind of all all I can really ask for.
29:38
Yeah.
29:38
That's an amazing thing to have in your life whether you're betting or just in life.
29:42
I I have a a supportive wife who's allowed me the space to grow in what we're doing.
29:48
I may not be gambling on the lines, but we definitely took a huge risk in gambles, you
29:54
know, in our life and changing careers and leaving jobs and moving into areas of the
30:00
unknown.
30:01
And, you know, no one exemplifies that more than you.
30:04
You know, I I would be remiss if I didn't mention that I also spent a year, raised a
30:10
toddler, had a son that was born in Central America and Mexico as well, Jared.
30:14
So, you know, we we have some more common bonds besides just sports.
30:20
Yeah.
30:21
No.
30:21
It's...
30:22
The two part disclaimer is I'm not giving financial advice, and I'm not guarantee
30:27
success.
30:28
The second part is Central America with a toddler is extremely difficult.
30:33
So I think you can attest to that.
30:36
But, yeah, you know, some...
30:38
She always asked me, do do you believe in this?
30:42
Do you believe in yourself?
30:42
And a lot...
30:43
For a long time, it...
30:44
I couldn't give her a real answer.
30:45
And then now that I developed this framework, I concretely can say I do.
30:50
And now she says, okay.
30:52
So it's time to believe in yourself and expand.
30:55
You know?
30:55
And...
30:56
Yeah.
30:58
No.
30:58
That's...
30:58
Happy you have the same kind of partner, and it's it's it's made all the difference in the
31:02
world to me.
31:04
Well, I hope it gives us the opportunity to continue to grow together as well.
31:07
I think that, even just the episode today adds a lot of value to our listeners.
31:12
I know so many of the people that are engaging with us on a daily basis are out there, you
31:18
know, placing bets and and trading and and digging into the props every single day, every
31:24
game out there.
31:26
Any knowledge that we can drop on them and education we can and beyond that, a community.
31:30
And I think that's the the most important part of what you're what you're growing right now.
31:35
So, really thank you, Jared, for jumping on.
31:37
Wanna highly suggest everybody, check out testingprops.com.
31:42
Subscribe to Jared's Substack.
31:43
Become a part of his community, not just for the education, but for, maybe a a a listening
31:50
ear when you need it and connecting with other people that are out there that are living the
31:55
the same ups and downs that you are.
31:56
Maybe the games are different and the wins and losses are different too, but I think it's
32:01
really important what you're doing because it's not going anywhere.
32:05
Right?
32:05
And and it's only gonna continue to grow.
32:07
It's already a billion dollar industry.
32:10
It's not slowing down whatsoever.
32:12
And the betting doesn't stop at sports now either, which is just completely absurd to me.
32:17
So, Jared, I I really appreciate your time today, man.
32:20
I appreciate you coming on, sharing everything that you've had with us, and being a part of
32:25
the scene and everything that we're growing here with the sports network.
32:30
Yeah, man.
32:30
I really appreciate being on.
32:32
Appreciate a chance moving forward to adding to your network.
32:37
Yeah.
32:37
My Substack and also Prop Laboratory is my handle on x.
32:44
If you wanna DM me, if you have any questions, you want any advice, I'm open book.
32:48
I don't know everything, but anyone that needs any advice, any second opinion, I'm here.