Latest / Pod Save America / Pollercoaster: State of the Race with Dan Pfeiffer (Subscription Preview)

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Pollercoaster: State of the Race with Dan Pfeiffer (Subscription Preview) · Pod Save America

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: And I'm Jon Favreau. The Crooked staff is out enjoying
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: a well-deserved break this holiday weekend ahead of the final
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: election push. So, instead of your normally scheduled Pod Save America,
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: We're excited to bring you a very special episode of
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: Dan's subscriber exclusive show.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: On Polar Coaster, we explore what the polls really mean
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: and assess whether or not it's time to hit the
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: panic button. In this special episode, you'll hear excerpts from
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: my conversations with polling experts, Celinda Lake and Terrence Woodbury,
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: on where Trump and Harris stand in swing states and
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: with black voters. Plus, we'll get into what Dems need
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: to do to secure an absolutely vital win in November.
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: I guess I'll wait to hit the panic button until
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: after I hear the episode. Get access to Polar Coaster
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: and other exclusive Crooked pods like Inside 2024 by subscribing
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: to Friends of the Pod. Sign up through Apple Podcasts
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: or head to crooked.com slash friends to get our Discord
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: community benefits, add free pods of America, and much more. Okay,
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: let's get into it.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: In 2016 and 2020, the polls underrepresented Trump voters. Do
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: you have any reason to believe that that could be
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: the case again? Or do you think there's been enough
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: changes in the industry or shifts in the electorate to
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: mitigate that concern?
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: So originally against Biden, I was not at all worried
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: about it. There was no such thing as a shy
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: Trump voter, for God's sake. It's not like your idea,
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: like we're going to make Trump more mega.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, right.
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: So I was not worried about it at all. I
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: do think now there might be And we may get
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: to the point where Trump says don't answer the polls,
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: which had a real impact on us. We have all
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: changed our methodology a lot. We're all looking at multiple
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: turnout scenarios. We now all make sure that we don't
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: replace a Trump voter with a Biden voter, et cetera,
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: et cetera. But I'm always nervous about that. And I'm
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: always nervous about their surge in turnout. They've also done
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: a lot more in terms of vote by mail. They're
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: now getting into vote by mail. And Trump specifically wants
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: vote by mail. That's dangerous from two aspects. It's dangerous because,
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: you know, it may up their turnout. It's also dangerous
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: because it can reduce a lot of ticket splitting. Women,
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: when they can vote in the voting booth, get to
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: make up their own mind with their own priorities. Husbands
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: and wives sit down together to vote by mail. And
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: so she's ready. enthusiastically marking Hillary or Harris. And her
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: husband says, what are you doing? We're not Harris voters.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: We're voting for Trump.
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: And then she goes, oh, enough. I'm not fighting about this.
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: So that worries me too. So yes, I am concerned.
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: And I think hopefully, you know, the current polls, four
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: points ahead, nine points ahead among independents, getting our turnout
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: out and now having the ability to do that less.
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: It's clear the third parties still pull from us. So
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: getting that vote down, this team knows what it needs
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: to do. It'll do it well. But yes, I always
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: worry that we should not underestimate the Trump surge. And
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: as disgusted as we get, they can get reinforced.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: So Blueprint Research, which is a Democratic research firm, did
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: a very in-depth poll of the issues that relate to
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Kamala Harris, what people know about her, where she has
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: some advantages and disadvantages. And what is interesting, that poll
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: is fascinating, but some of the top line takeaways are
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: people don't know a lot about her. That's an important point.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: They don't know a lot about her policy positions. She
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: has natural advantages on abortion. She's been talking about it.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's been the thing she has focused the
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: most on in public since the Dobbs decision. And she's
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: obviously much more comfortable and persuasive talking about it than
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: President Biden has been, who, while he has taken some
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: very bold stances about restoring Roe um, and done some
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: aggressive as, you know, aggressive executive actions on it. That's
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: obviously not his favorite issue. It's not one he's most
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: comfortable with. She, she talks about it, you know, and
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: all the dimensions of it, right. In great detail, you know, IVF, um, contraception,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: you know, people dealing with ectopic pregnancy. So all this,
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: like she's, she's just, she has been great on the issue.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: So she's advantaged there. She has work to do on
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: the border. She has some, uh, you know, there's been this, uh,
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: bullshit narrative that she's the border czar and that's where
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Republicans are going. So she's going to have to do
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: some work there to find a way to defend herself
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: and chart a potentially different course going forward than the
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: administration has had to date. But this poll really found
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: that was interesting was because she's so undefined, she has
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: the capacity to take a lot of credit for the
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: good things that the Biden administration has done and find
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: ways to distance herself from some of the things people
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: like less and the people blame her less, right? People
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: generally don't think the vice president's responsible for managing the economy.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: So she is taking less of the anger and inflation
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: than Biden was because she is a former prosecutor. And
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: I think she has the capacity to talk about how
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: she took on the big banks and won all this
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: money for people in a huge housing settlement. has the
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: predatory lenders, all these other things. She has the capacity.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: She is seen as, and the potential to be seen
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: even more as someone who will take on bad actors
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: in the economy, powerful special interests that I think could
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: be very compelling. So it's the same issues that Biden had.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: She just has more upside to fill in the blanks
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: in ways that are positive and persuasive to the swing
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: voter universe. How does Tim Walz help her win?
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: Well, first of all, let's put this in context. The
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: most that any VP has ever made a difference is 2%.
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: And the most difference they make is on the day
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: they're announced, creating excitement, saying something about the character of
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: the person, saying something about their decision-making abilities. I think
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: Tim Walz is a perfect complement. First of all, clear
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: executive ability, likability, relatability. And part of the Midwest strategy,
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: even though he's not from one of the battleground Midwest states,
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: he still communicates those Midwestern values. And I think he's
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: great in terms of answering some of the woke agenda.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: You know, you mentioned that obviously he's not from Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: You know, there's some talk that Josh Shapiro could have
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: helped in Pennsylvania, a state that has been decided by
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: less than a point last couple of times around. Mark
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Kelly could have helped in Arizona, a critical state. Vice
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: President Harris needs at least one of those to win,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: and Pennsylvania is probably the key one. Any risk in
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: not picking particularly Shapiro? Obviously, as you say, one to
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: two points. There's some research that shows that there's a
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: home state advantage of about one to one and a
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: half points. That obviously would be twice the margin of
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: what Pennsylvania has been in recent elections.
• 7:04
  Speaker 5: What do you think?
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: Well, I think that particularly with such short notice, I
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: love Josh Shapiro and I love Mark Kelly. And I
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: think Josh Shapiro is just an incredible leader. I think
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: he's going to be president someday. But I think there
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: was an awful lot of controversy. And when you've only
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: got 90 days left, it's good not to have controversies.
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: The other study that doesn't get talked about as much
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: is Democratic governors improve the margin in their states, whether
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: they're on the ticket or not. So they improve it
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: about a point and a half. So We're going to
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: have that advantage anyway. And Josh Shapiro is a very,
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: very popular governor. He's going to campaign hard. His slogan
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: was get it done, which is a perfect slogan for
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: the moment. So I think we get all the advantages
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: and it's like a twofer. And we had only good picks.
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: And I think these people will campaign in their states anyway.
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: I mean, Mark Kelly loved to have an astronaut, love
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: his border experience, love the military, love him on guns.
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: These people are going to campaign in their states anyway.
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: They're going to help in their states a lot. And
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: they're going to help validate and introduce Vice President Harris,
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: who still is not that well known. So we get
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: all the advantages of everybody this way. And I think
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: that's a big, big plus.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: How important do you think the contrast with J.D. Vance is?
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: You basically beat me to the point I try to
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: make all the time is the vice presidential, like, It's
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: an important moment for the campaign. It's a time when
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: everyone pays attention. It's great for organizing, great for fundraising.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: But in terms of actually moving the race, you're talking
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: a point or two here, which is, as we both
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: pointed out, decisive in recent elections. But how important do
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: you think the contrast is just comparing Vance and Wallace?
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: They're going to be on stage together at some point
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: in the coming weeks. Does that say anything? Is there
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: a political advantage there? Does it say anything about different
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: styles between Trump and Kamala Harris?
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: I think it's a huge advantage. I mean, Governor Walz
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: really brings people together.
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: He's a uniter.
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: He is not a divider at all. He does not
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: say whacked out things. And he has great respect for women,
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: including the women in his state. And he's the one
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: that coined the term weird.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: J.D.
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: Vance is just dangerous and weird, in my opinion. And
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: his wife can try to explain why you'd say these things.
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: But I think real people are having trouble understanding how
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: you even come up with these configurations. I think that J.D.
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: Vance was a Midwest strategy pick, and he may end
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: up being just good for energizing the base. But, you know,
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: they are turning inward. They are getting so under siege
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: that they are turning inward. And what they are doing
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: to energize their base and keep their base on board
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: is really jeopardizing the swing vote. So this stuff is
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: horrifying to suburban voters, to women voters. And I think
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: we're going to see a record gender gap. And Tim Walz,
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: has always won with women voters. In close races, he
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: has solidly won women voters. So he is someone who
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: comes across as someone who respects women, fights for women,
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: delivers for women, and delivers for their families. gets their lives.
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: And J.D. Vance is just mystifying at every turn.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: I still remain mystified by the Vance pick because, you know,
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: you're right. To the extent there's any value at all,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: it's the base. That's the one place where Trump has
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: no problems. And is there like a MAGA voter somewhere
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: who thinks that Donald Trump is not MAGA enough, but J.D.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Vance will push him over the... I don't think that
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: person exists right now. I can imagine a voter who
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: maybe is a Biden-Trump voter in rural or exurban Pennsylvania
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: or Michigan. They don't really know Kamala Harris that well.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: They have some concerns. They've maybe never voted for a
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: woman or a person of color for president or even
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: governor before. And Tim Walz could be the tiebreaker there.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: But the political logic of... Tim Walz, right, without overstating it,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: makes a ton of sense to me. The political logic
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: of J.D. Vance that I'm still somewhat mystified by.
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: All politics is personal. And I truly believe it was
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: the two sons, the Trump sons, that sealed that deal.
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: And I think they stopped vetting and they should have
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: kept vetting.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break and we'll be right back.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Talk to me a little bit about what you've seen
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: in the polling shift over the last few weeks here
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: as Vice President Harris has become the nominee.
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: Well, we've seen the enthusiasm gap end. Our side now
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: is enthusiastic as theirs. We should not underestimate how enthusiastic
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: their side is. But our side, very enthusiastic too. Seen
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: an incredible surge with young people. We now have a
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: nine-point advantage with independents. Biden had had an advantage with
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: independence for a long time, but was losing it toward
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: the end of his run. We see African-Americans completely solidified.
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: African-American women, the number may even be what Biden got.
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: African-American following very quickly behind. Young men of color voting
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: very strongly. And now the most recent polls today show
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: Latinos as well. Now, the flip side is you see
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: a little bit more reticence with older non-college women, seniors,
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: where actually Biden was doing slightly better. So there is
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: some shifting, but tremendous unification, enthusiasm, mobilization of the base.
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: You've also seen the complete collapse of the third party candidates,
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: you know, where people said, I'm sick of the lesser
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: of two evils. There are a lot of people now
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: that think I don't have a lesser of two evils.
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: I have something I'm excited about.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Is it fair to say that it felt certainly after
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: the debate and sort of the weeks before that, that
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: we were in a world and where the only really
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: realistic path to 270 was to sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: the second district of Nebraska.
• 12:47
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: The polling, at least right now, makes it feel like
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: we're back in the game where Kamala Harris has multiple paths.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: That's probably still the easiest path given the history of
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: those states. But now it felt like Nevada, Arizona, and
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Georgia were off the table. Is it fair to say
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: they're all competitive now? Absolutely.
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: And the latest data out of Georgia, and this has
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: got to be one of my all-time favorite numbers, where
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: even all of their two senators and their governor are very,
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: very popular. And what did Donald Trump spend his entire
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: rally doing? Tearing apart his own governor. I think, you know,
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: what he's doing and what we're doing make these states open.
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: Registration in North Carolina just tipped. The Republicans have been
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: running ahead of us the whole year. Whole two years, frankly,
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: now Democrats are ahead. So, you know, some of these
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: are stretches, but yeah, we spread them thin and they're
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: shorter of money. We've got a lot of models and
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: we got a lot of places to go. And people
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: are excited about that enthusiasm. And it's always scary when
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: you're down to one state or one seat that it
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: can be taken away from you.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: In the polling that I've seen, mostly public but some private, shows, obviously,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: as you indicate, dramatic improvement with Black voters, Latino voters,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: young voters, but still a little below where Biden was
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: in 2020. And if Harris is losing some of what
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Biden had with either older voters or white voters, what's
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: sort of the priority order and targets to get up
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: to a win number here?
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: So the electorate has shifted a little bit, too, since
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: 2020 and certainly since 2016. So that's good news because
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: they're more of the kinds of voters she's doing well with.
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: And you're seeing registration increase, although I think we all
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: should be very worried about voter suppression. But in general,
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: I think the biggest dynamic is she is going to
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: do better with women, I think, than Joe Biden did.
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: And she's not going to get all the men. Now,
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: Biden might not have gotten all the white, blue-collar men
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: he got in 2020 either.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: No, for sure.
• 14:47
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: So we're going to have probably a record gender gap.
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: And of course, the formula for success for any Democrat
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: in any close race, you got to win women by
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: more than you lose men by. And that's what we
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: got to make sure we do. Then we got to
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: get our vote out. And that looks a whole lot
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: easier today than it did a month ago.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: There was a conversation happening in the media that perhaps
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Trump was overseeing the largest racial realignment electoral politics since
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: the Civil Rights Act. As we sit here today, where
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: are we?
• 15:22
  Speaker 6: Oh, man, Dan, the world has changed, you know, and
• 15:25
  Speaker 6: nowhere do I see the world changing more than I
• 15:27
  Speaker 6: do in the crosstabs.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: That's where you live, the crosstabs.
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: I live in the crosstabs. That is my world. My
• 15:31
  Speaker 5: world is a spreadsheet.
• 15:33
  Speaker 6: So when I look at that world, I see Kamala
• 15:35
  Speaker 6: Harris really beginning to reassemble the Democratic coalition that we
• 15:39
  Speaker 6: thought was splintering. That, you know, we had some time
• 15:42
  Speaker 6: to bring back together. But in four weeks, we have
• 15:44
  Speaker 6: seen her quite literally bring back the 2020 Biden coalition
• 15:48
  Speaker 6: where Donald Trump has always been winning about 90 percent
• 15:52
  Speaker 6: of 2020 Trump voters.
• 15:54
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 15:54
  Speaker 6: But Joe Biden was only winning about 74 percent of
• 15:57
  Speaker 6: 2020 Biden voters. Well, already in four weeks, we see
• 16:01
  Speaker 6: Kamala Harris winning 90 percent. of voters that previously voted
• 16:04
  Speaker 6: for Joe Biden. And so she's reassembling that coalition and
• 16:07
  Speaker 6: she's doing that primarily with young voters and voters of color.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: Because that's what the Delta was, right? People that Biden
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: was struggling with who had not come home were primarily
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: young voters, Black voters, Latino voters, and particularly young black
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: and Latino voters.
• 16:20
  Speaker 5: That's exactly right.
• 16:21
  Speaker 6: And look, I think the Biden campaign always anticipated that
• 16:25
  Speaker 6: those voters would eventually come home. And we had about
• 16:28
  Speaker 6: three months to bring them home. But in four weeks,
• 16:31
  Speaker 6: we have seen her doing 12 points better with young voters,
• 16:34
  Speaker 6: 15 points better with women voters, and 22 points better
• 16:38
  Speaker 6: with black voters in four weeks.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: And where does the 22 points better with black voters
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: put us against the 2020 benchmark?
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Is that what you're operating with? The idea that to win,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: she's got to hit 2020 numbers at least with black voters,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Latino voters, young voters.
• 16:54
  Speaker 6: So I actually think she's got to do a little
• 16:55
  Speaker 6: bit better with voters of color. You know, Joe Biden
• 16:58
  Speaker 6: had a unique coalition. Scranton Joe had a unique appeal
• 17:01
  Speaker 6: to white seniors and to white suburbs. And we see
• 17:06
  Speaker 6: Kamala Harris maintaining that coalition. But in order for us
• 17:09
  Speaker 6: to For me to be confident, for me to take
• 17:12
  Speaker 6: a sigh of relief, it is going to be to
• 17:14
  Speaker 6: exceed Joe Biden's 2020 numbers with young voters and with
• 17:17
  Speaker 6: black voters. And what we've seen her do in four
• 17:20
  Speaker 6: weeks gives me a lot of confidence in what we
• 17:22
  Speaker 6: can do with the remaining 86 days.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: Let's take another quick break and we'll be right back.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Have you seen bleed with older white voters or rural
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: voters yet?
• 17:45
  Speaker 6: It's amazing, Dan. You know, she is maintaining. In fact,
• 17:48
  Speaker 6: she's doing one point better among seniors than Scranton Joe
• 17:52
  Speaker 6: is doing.
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: It shocks me.
• 17:53
  Speaker 6: But if we can maintain that coalition, it really does
• 17:56
  Speaker 6: open up the battleground map.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Do you think there's still more work to do with
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: black voters to get up to those 2020 numbers? We're
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: still a little short of that in some of the
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: polling I've seen. Is that right?
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: Absolutely.
• 18:05
  Speaker 6: We have some work to do. So look, she's at what, 71,
• 18:08
  Speaker 6: 72% with black voters. That's about where Joe, I mean,
• 18:12
  Speaker 6: Joe Biden was at about 76% with black voters. So
• 18:14
  Speaker 6: we have some work to do. But again, I want
• 18:15
  Speaker 6: to see her exceed Joe Biden's numbers with black voters.
• 18:18
  Speaker 6: She has unique appeal to the black community. A unique
• 18:21
  Speaker 6: appeal to AAPI, to a next generation of voters, especially
• 18:25
  Speaker 6: Gen Z and millennials. And so I expect her to
• 18:27
  Speaker 6: exceed Joe Biden's numbers with young voters and voters of color.
• 18:31
  Speaker 6: And yes, we have work to do there because, you know, Dan,
• 18:33
  Speaker 6: what's not lost on me is that that remaining 20 percent, right,
• 18:36
  Speaker 6: is she's at 71 percent. and let's say that 10%
• 18:40
  Speaker 6: are going to vote for Donald Trump, that remaining 20%
• 18:43
  Speaker 6: is fundamentally different than the previous 70, right?
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: This is the most cynical, the most disaffected.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: Are they a little younger? Is that the case?
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: They are younger.
• 18:54
  Speaker 6: And look, while they are disaffected and disengaged, one misperception
• 18:58
  Speaker 6: is that they are uninformed. And that is just not
• 19:01
  Speaker 6: the case. I sit in focus groups with these voters
• 19:03
  Speaker 6: every day. They know what's happening. The other misperception was
• 19:08
  Speaker 6: that what made them double haters was that they didn't
• 19:10
  Speaker 6: like Joe Biden and Donald Trump. That's not what makes
• 19:12
  Speaker 6: them double haters. They hate political parties. They hate the
• 19:17
  Speaker 6: political system. That's what really made them double haters. And
• 19:19
  Speaker 6: so by definition, they don't know as much about Kamala Harris.
• 19:24
  Speaker 6: And so we have an opportunity here to continue to
• 19:26
  Speaker 6: reintroduce her. And to explain to them who she fights for,
• 19:30
  Speaker 6: why she fights for them, and why she would fight
• 19:32
  Speaker 6: for them.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Is that the most effective message, right? Like, we've obviously,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: as a party, done a lot of fear-mongering about Trump
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: over the years. And I'm not denigrating the strategy. We
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: won in 18, we won in 20, we won in 22. Like,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: that has worked. But this is a different challenge. Is
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: that right?
• 19:46
  Speaker 5: Well, yeah.
• 19:46
  Speaker 6: You know, this is the biggest difference between the race
• 19:49
  Speaker 6: that we had four weeks ago. and the race that
• 19:50
  Speaker 6: we have now, right? The Biden versus Trump compared to
• 19:52
  Speaker 6: the Harris versus Trump is that the vibes have changed
• 19:55
  Speaker 6: more than anything. And one of the things that have
• 19:57
  Speaker 6: changed the vibes is that we don't have two candidates
• 19:59
  Speaker 6: whose path to victory requires reducing their opponent's negatives, right?
• 20:04
  Speaker 6: By just driving down their negatives.
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: I feel like negatives is like a thermostat. Like, is
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: it going up or is it going down? That's exactly right.
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: And so the vibes have changed, right? And so now
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: we get to inject joy into this race. There was
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: a real hope deficit in the previous rematch. I kept
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: telling folks the only thing less popular is then Donald
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: Trump or Joe Biden to young people was the rematch
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: of Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: When we look at national polling, right, there's a sort
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: of an article of faith that national polling in the
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: Latino vote is somewhat misleading, right? Because you have the
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: Latino votes are incredibly diverse, Florida with Cubans and Venezuelans
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: kind of skew, it's a very different, population than you
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: have in Arizona, Nevada, etc. That's not true in the
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: same way with the black vote, right? Like the national
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: numbers and the battleground state numbers should be somewhat in line.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: Is that right?
• 20:55
  Speaker 6: They have been pretty similar. Look, I think Trump won
• 20:59
  Speaker 6: about 12% nationally. You can see about that number in
• 21:02
  Speaker 6: each battleground state. I think the highest he may have
• 21:04
  Speaker 6: gotten was 13 or 14, which is in the margin
• 21:06
  Speaker 6: of error.
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: So yeah, you know, it's pretty consistent.
• 21:09
  Speaker 6: From the national to the battleground, I think the key
• 21:12
  Speaker 6: here is that, again, it's that remaining 20%.
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: So let's do the math real fast. So Trump's still
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: at about that 12, right, in polling. Kamala Harris is
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: at 76, you said, about? And how much of that
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: undecided she has to win? Almost all of it, right?
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: So if you're at 12 and 76, you have a
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: delta there. She's going to win that whole delta.
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 21:30
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: I mean, we have to close that gap.
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 21:32
  Speaker 6: And so my goal is to not only close the
• 21:35
  Speaker 6: gap of the remaining undecideds to make sure that we
• 21:39
  Speaker 6: consolidate those third party curious voters, but it's to continue
• 21:42
  Speaker 6: to disqualify Donald Trump to some of the black voters
• 21:44
  Speaker 6: that are still considering voting for him.
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: There's still new information to introduce about Donald Trump. I
• 21:49
  Speaker 5: know his age, his.
• 21:51
  Speaker 6: Criminality, his sexual misconduct, all of those things are known
• 21:55
  Speaker 6: to the public. There's still some new information that we
• 21:57
  Speaker 6: get to introduce here that will continue to disqualify him
• 21:59
  Speaker 6: to more of those black voters.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: And you've seen in polling focus groups that that is
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: an effective message with some of those voters?
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: Absolutely.
• 22:05
  Speaker 6: But the difference is, and this might be counterintuitive because
• 22:08
  Speaker 6: black voters are extremely concerned about racism. So it's counterintuitive
• 22:13
  Speaker 6: to say that racism isn't disqualifying. Right.
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: Right. But they know he's racist.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: It's old news.
• 22:18
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 22:18
  Speaker 5: That's exactly right.
• 22:19
  Speaker 6: Just like they knew he was a criminal, which is
• 22:20
  Speaker 6: why the convictions didn't change his numbers amongst his group.
• 22:23
  Speaker 6: But the part that we get to introduce to them
• 22:25
  Speaker 6: is the violence, right? It is the fact that they
• 22:28
  Speaker 6: have forgotten how bad it was and certainly don't think
• 22:30
  Speaker 6: it can get worse. They forgot about Stand Back and
• 22:33
  Speaker 6: Stand By with the Proud Boys. They certainly don't know
• 22:35
  Speaker 6: that he's bringing those same Proud Boys on stage at
• 22:37
  Speaker 6: every rally and saluting them and promising them immunity.
• 22:41
  Speaker 5: And that clear and present danger.
• 22:43
  Speaker 6: that Donald Trump is putting our communities in, that is
• 22:45
  Speaker 6: what's disqualifying, not his racism. Because frankly, for that last 20%,
• 22:50
  Speaker 6: racism is kind of built into the system. I literally
• 22:53
  Speaker 6: hear it in focus groups every day. They're all racist.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: It's not like if you just defeat Donald Trump, racism's over, right?
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: That's exactly right.
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: There's this very online debate about... how much she should
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: lean into her role as a prosecutor, not just with
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: the Black vote, but just generally. It felt like she
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: got a little wrapped around the axle with it in
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: the 2020 primary. She has been not shy about it
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: in this election, and it's been a big part of
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: the ads. Is that compelling? Is there any potential risk
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: there with Black voters?
• 23:22
  Speaker 6: So notably, you know, the environment is so different. You know,
• 23:25
  Speaker 6: in 2020, she was running in a post-George Floyd environment, right,
• 23:31
  Speaker 6: where there was a racial uprising and specifically young people
• 23:35
  Speaker 6: demanding accountability and justice from police misconduct. And so that
• 23:40
  Speaker 6: environment just was not conducive for a prosecutor And we
• 23:45
  Speaker 6: saw that with her, you know, dropping out before the
• 23:46
  Speaker 6: first primary. This is a very different environment. Now she's
• 23:49
  Speaker 6: running against a felon, right? A convicted felon. And I
• 23:52
  Speaker 6: do think that her experience as a prosecutor, her knowing
• 23:56
  Speaker 6: Donald Trump's type, you know, but also, and this is
• 24:00
  Speaker 6: the part that, again, I think is new information that
• 24:02
  Speaker 6: we get to introduce. And that is, some of the
• 24:05
  Speaker 6: progressive steps that she took as a prosecutor, right? The
• 24:07
  Speaker 6: Back on Track program, being one of the first states
• 24:10
  Speaker 6: in the nation that demanded body cameras for every police officer.
• 24:14
  Speaker 6: There's work that she did that I do think will
• 24:18
  Speaker 6: inoculate her position as a prosecutor to some of the
• 24:22
  Speaker 6: voters that will be concerned.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I tend to think this conversation is like a
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: little unidimensional, right? You know, you see this in polling
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: a lot. Some of the voters who are most concerned
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: about crime are black voters, right? And so you can
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: be tough on crime, have smart policy take on crime,
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: and also have smart criminal justice reform positions, right? That's
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: exactly right. And I sometimes think we're just overly binary
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: about it, that you're either soft on crime to use
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: the Republican term, or you're too tough on crime. And
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: I think her record's actually pretty good in both fronts, right?
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: And the prosecutor thing, I also think, whereas also the
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: conversation is a little overly simplified because it's her bio, right?
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: It allows you to get into things that aren't just
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: crime as understood by the Republican campaign ads, but taking
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: on the big banks, taking on predatory lenders, like that
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: sort of stuff matters a lot too.
• 25:09
  Speaker 5: That's right.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Because that's her populist credentialing, right? It's her, I'll fight
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: for you credentialing too. And it's sort of like, you
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: are who you are and you got to run as
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: who you are, right? And to do anything else is...
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: A fool's errand, right? That's exactly right.
• 25:22
  Speaker 6: And so, you know, what makes bio different from resume, right,
• 25:25
  Speaker 6: is that the bio is why she's a prosecutor, right?
• 25:28
  Speaker 6: The resume is that she was a prosecutor. But the
• 25:31
  Speaker 6: bio is that she was impacted by a friend who
• 25:33
  Speaker 6: was being sexually assaulted by her stepfather and wanted to
• 25:35
  Speaker 6: keep people safe. That's a part of the bio that
• 25:38
  Speaker 6: we have to layer in here is not just what
• 25:40
  Speaker 6: she's done and what she's accomplished, but why she did
• 25:43
  Speaker 6: it and who she was fighting for while she was
• 25:45
  Speaker 6: doing it. The other thing that I think is important
• 25:47
  Speaker 6: is that I think her record does demonstrate that we
• 25:50
  Speaker 6: can reject that false choice. The false choice between safety
• 25:55
  Speaker 6: from crime or holding people accountable that hurt our communities.
• 25:58
  Speaker 6: And I think that her record proves that she did both.
• 26:01
  Speaker 6: And I think that that is exactly what we get
• 26:02
  Speaker 6: to do for the next 86 days.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: The Trump campaign prior to the switch made a big
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: show of the fact that black men were their primary target, right?
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: That's who they were going after. They seem to still
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: be sticking with that. Is that the group that obviously
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: the world has changed? That's a small, that's not a
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: smaller target, but they're not backing away from it. Is
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: that still the primary group within the black community that
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: Kamala Harris has to persuade is black men?
• 26:30
  Speaker 6: So as we see her doing 22% better amongst black voters.
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: She's obviously doing a lot better with black men too.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: That's exactly right.
• 26:38
  Speaker 6: She's closing that gap across the black electorate, right? She's
• 26:41
  Speaker 6: closing the generation gap. She's closing the gender gap. Donald
• 26:44
  Speaker 6: Trump has made men of color and not just black
• 26:47
  Speaker 6: men a central part of his campaign since 2016.
• 26:50
  Speaker 5: That is not a shift here.
• 26:51
  Speaker 6: I do think that he is maybe pursuing the wrong
• 26:55
  Speaker 6: target now, you know, along with him not shifting to
• 26:59
  Speaker 6: a new candidate is not shifting to a new strategy
• 27:02
  Speaker 6: and that this black woman is going to have a
• 27:03
  Speaker 6: unique appeal to black voters, also black men, but also
• 27:06
  Speaker 6: that that the way to disqualify her to black men
• 27:10
  Speaker 6: is not to question her blackness. It's certainly not to
• 27:13
  Speaker 6: say that you're cuter than her.
• 27:14
  Speaker 5: You know what I mean?
• 27:16
  Speaker 6: He's just, if he is still pursuing men of color
• 27:20
  Speaker 6: as a central part of his strategy, I have not
• 27:22
  Speaker 6: seen his messaging or his strategy shift to achieve that.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: As you look at the messages the Republicans are throwing
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: out there about her, you know, and the ads are
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: picking up, there's hundreds of million dollars being slated to
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: be spent over the next couple of weeks here. Are
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: there any that worry you the most that we have
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: to be the most attentive to pushing back on?
• 27:42
  Speaker 6: You brought up the fact that there's some similarity in
• 27:44
  Speaker 6: the enthusiasm between Kamala Harris and Barack Obama, right? The
• 27:48
  Speaker 6: similarity here is both Barack Obama and Kamala Harris remind
• 27:53
  Speaker 6: us of the American ideal, right? And this is what
• 27:57
  Speaker 6: I think Tim Walz did in his introduction was reminding
• 28:00
  Speaker 6: us that a guy from Minnesota and a girl from
• 28:01
  Speaker 6: Oakland can share values and share a mission and pursue
• 28:06
  Speaker 6: it together. That that's a part of what Barack Obama
• 28:09
  Speaker 6: and Kamala Harris represented, right?
• 28:10
  Speaker 5: Is they represent... this.
• 28:12
  Speaker 6: American idea that if we work hard and try hard
• 28:15
  Speaker 6: and do our best that we can achieve and contribute
• 28:17
  Speaker 6: to this society in the highest ways possible. Well, in
• 28:21
  Speaker 6: many ways, you know, Donald Trump represents the other side
• 28:25
  Speaker 6: of America. These are both truly who we are, the
• 28:29
  Speaker 6: better and the worst parts of us. And so that is,
• 28:32
  Speaker 6: I think that's the contrast that we have to continue
• 28:33
  Speaker 6: to draw. And the ads that I am most concerned
• 28:37
  Speaker 6: about are the ones that will make people question who
• 28:43
  Speaker 6: she fights for.
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: It is the ads that will undermine who she is.
• 28:47
  Speaker 6: And I think we have to be careful there because
• 28:49
  Speaker 6: I don't ever want her to have to come on
• 28:50
  Speaker 6: TV and describe why she's black or respond to Donald
• 28:54
  Speaker 6: Trump's questions. I think it's enough for her to just
• 28:57
  Speaker 6: be black and just be Asian American and just be
• 29:00
  Speaker 6: woman and just be a Howard.
• 29:01
  Speaker 5: 11, just be who she is.
• 29:03
  Speaker 6: What I've always thought the goal of the American experiment
• 29:06
  Speaker 6: must be is to broaden our tribe, right? That we
• 29:09
  Speaker 6: are still the same team just because we're wearing different jerseys.
• 29:12
  Speaker 6: We're all the same tribe here. And so I think
• 29:15
  Speaker 6: that is exactly what they represent is the diversity and
• 29:19
  Speaker 6: the vastness of this tribe and how different we can be,
• 29:21
  Speaker 6: but how much more we have in common than apart.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: I hope you enjoyed this best of episode from Polar Coaster.
• 29:31
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• 29:33
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