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What Iran’s ‘pirates’ will do next · The Front

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, July fourteen, twenty twenty six. Investors are flocking
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: to new bills, an unintended consequence of the Albanese government's
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  Speaker 1: property tax shakeup, and lenders say they're increasingly competing with
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  Speaker 1: first home buyers while seeking to avoid higher taxes on
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  Speaker 1: established properties. Just two states could participate in the federal
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: government's much vaunted national Firearm by Back scheme, which Anthony
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Albanesi announced after December's Bondai massacre. New South Wales Premier
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  Speaker 1: Chris Minn says his state and the Act are likely
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  Speaker 1: the only two participants as the jurisdictions brawl over who's
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  Speaker 1: paying and how much. Those stories alive now at the
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  Speaker 1: Australian dot Com dot au. Donald Trump's peace in the
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  Speaker 1: Middle East has failed for a second time, with war
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  Speaker 1: restarting with Iran to match the active hostilities still raging
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  Speaker 1: in Gaza. Now the battered Iranian regime is asserting its
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  Speaker 1: control of the Strait of Hall Moors. So is this
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  Speaker 1: modern day piracy something we just have to get used to,
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  Speaker 1: or is there a way back? Chief International correspondent Cameron
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  Speaker 1: Stewart is here in just a moment.
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  Speaker 2: As fresh strikes are exchanged across the goal for Iran
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  Speaker 2: has declared the Strait of holl Mooves is closed.
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  Speaker 3: Prompting a major military response from President Trump and the Pentagon.
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  Speaker 1: The US hitting more than one hundred and seventy targets
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  Speaker 1: in Iran over two days. The latest round of air
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  Speaker 1: strikes was triggered by Iran firing on another commercial ship
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  Speaker 1: crossing the Strait of Horror Moves across the Golf Region.
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  Speaker 1: Nations are taking emergency action following a fresh round of
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  Speaker 1: US strikes on Iran. Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief
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  Speaker 1: international correspondent camp. Just twenty five days ago, we were
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  Speaker 1: talking about peace in the Middle East. Now we seem
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  Speaker 1: to be back in a war. Is this actually an
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  Speaker 1: active war now?
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  Speaker 3: I think we are seeing a very fast ascent into
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  Speaker 3: the war. Clear. Yeah. I think it's hard to argue
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  Speaker 3: anything but the fact that the memorandum of understanding that
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  Speaker 3: was signed between Iran and the US in June is
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  Speaker 3: now dead.
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  Speaker 1: Here's what Donald Trump said about that at last week's
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  Speaker 1: NATO summit in Turkey.
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  Speaker 4: I don't want to deal with them, and with there's gum.
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  Speaker 3: You know what scum is. There's gum, there's seck people.
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  Speaker 3: There's something wrong with them. They're cuckoo. Sorry, as I'm
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  Speaker 3: concerning yourself, Iran has shown absolutely no interest in seriously
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  Speaker 3: negotiating issues such as the changes to its nuclear program
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  Speaker 3: that the United States wants, and more particularly the free
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  Speaker 3: passenger ships through the Strait of Hum was repeatedly. Iran
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  Speaker 3: has talked behind the scenes doing negotiations of the US
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  Speaker 3: while actually firing on ships coming through the Strait of UMUS. So,
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  Speaker 3: the Trump administration was very patient for a long time,
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  Speaker 3: but now it appears to have lost that patience. Donald
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  Speaker 3: Trump has been calling the Iranian leadership scum. The War
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  Speaker 3: Secretary Hexeth has been saying that they will pay the
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  Speaker 3: price for breaching the conditions of this ceasefire.
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  Speaker 4: No one sails from the Street of Hormuz to anywhere
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  Speaker 4: in the world without the permission of the United States
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  Speaker 4: Navy to the regime in.
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  Speaker 3: Tran, So, I think we are seeing a very fast
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  Speaker 3: descent back into war.
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  Speaker 1: Was there another way through this for the United States
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  Speaker 1: cam that didn't involve bombarding Iran?
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  Speaker 3: Look, I mean the Trump administration has tried everything possible
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  Speaker 3: to get the plumaceed to work. It really stretched the
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  Speaker 3: boundaries of language in actually getting the MAU signed in
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  Speaker 3: the first place. But Iran has not acted in good
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  Speaker 3: faith at all. And no, I don't think stration actually
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  Speaker 3: has much choice now but to continue the conflict in
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  Speaker 3: some form. The great question is what form that is
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  Speaker 3: going to be. Simply because the diplomatic channel is effectively redundant,
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  Speaker 3: I mean, Aurand just shows no sign of actually adhering
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  Speaker 3: to any sort of negotiations, and so it really doesn't
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  Speaker 3: give the US much choice to aill. I mean, they
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  Speaker 3: could just walk away, but that would be hugely damaging
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  Speaker 3: for Trump politically, I mean, he would be seen as
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  Speaker 3: effectively seed in control of the straitup Moors, where twenty
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  Speaker 3: percent of the world's oil transited through before the war
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  Speaker 3: to Iran. That is deadly for him politically. Not to
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  Speaker 3: mention for the global economy, of course, with the international
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  Speaker 3: energy crisis that it's causing. It's the price of Brent
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  Speaker 3: crude oil, it's the international benchmark obviously has shot up.
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  Speaker 1: Overnights gone up five percent, well down from the one
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  Speaker 1: hundred and twenty odd which is where it.
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  Speaker 3: Was a few months ago. But yeah, so, I think
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  Speaker 3: the two options that the Trump administration has, neither of
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  Speaker 3: which are palatable, are to continue with this limited war
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  Speaker 3: that's going on at the moment, or go back into
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  Speaker 3: a full scale conflict.
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  Speaker 1: So do you think the Iranian regime just kind of
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  Speaker 1: outplayed Donald Trump by pretending to be genuine about the
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  Speaker 1: memorandum of understanding and in fact they never had any
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  Speaker 1: intention of giving up control of the Strait?
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  Speaker 3: I think so. I mean, this is very much the
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  Speaker 3: Iranian playbook. They are masters at talking about deals forever
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  Speaker 3: and ever and not actually adhering to them. They have
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  Speaker 3: made a calculation here, Claire that the Stradapilm was is
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  Speaker 3: not really gettable by the US with military force, without
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  Speaker 3: such an expenditure of ground troops and other military commitments
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  Speaker 3: that would lead to US casualties that would rebound on
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  Speaker 3: Donald Trump. I think the Uranian regime thinks they have
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  Speaker 3: the pardon the partner, the Trump card here in the
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  Speaker 3: sense that if they try and levy tolls of ships
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  Speaker 3: going through the Strati films, which is what they're trying
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  Speaker 3: to do, they calculate they can make some forty billion
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  Speaker 3: dollars of revenue a year, and no one can particularly
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  Speaker 3: stop them doing that at this moment. So their calculation
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  Speaker 3: is that it's worth the gamble to try and keep
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  Speaker 3: the straight closed, and that's what they're doing.
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  Speaker 1: Ken, what do we know about Israel's role in this
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  Speaker 1: part of the conflict, given that it's been such an
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  Speaker 1: integral player up until now.
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  Speaker 3: Well, Israel's role will become really interesting and really important
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  Speaker 3: at this minute, because if Thismau, as Trump says, is dead,
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  Speaker 3: then that also means that Israel no longer has the
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  Speaker 3: technical restrictions if you like that it were imposed on it,
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  Speaker 3: especially by the US in not attacking Hesba in Lebanon.
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  Speaker 3: We've seen recently some restraint on both sides there between
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  Speaker 3: the Israelis and the Hezbla in Lebanon. But of course
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  Speaker 3: the Mau was predicated, according to the Iranians, on Israel
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  Speaker 3: and stopping its attacks on Hespala. Now, if the Mau
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  Speaker 3: is dead, I think Benjamin et Nyahu will see the
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  Speaker 3: breaks if you like, being lifted off Israel in all areas,
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  Speaker 3: as far as its conflict with Hersbela goes in Lebanon.
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  Speaker 3: So this could lead to another flare up in Lebanon.
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  Speaker 3: It's two early, say, but certainly that is one of
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  Speaker 3: the side ripples of this deal collapsing.
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  Speaker 1: If we zoom right out cam and look back at
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  Speaker 1: where this conflict started. Of course, you know, you could
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  Speaker 1: start two thousand years ago, probably, but in this phase
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  Speaker 1: of tension between Iran and Israel and the United States,
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  Speaker 1: we look back at October seven, twenty twenty three, Iran's
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  Speaker 1: militia in Hamas was attacking Israel. Iran's other militia, Hesbala,
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  Speaker 1: was also attacking Israel from the north. We've seen nearly
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  Speaker 1: three years of conflict now that's then brought the United
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  Speaker 1: States very firmly into a hot war in the Middle East.
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  Speaker 1: And now we're all talking about the Strait of Hormares,
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  Speaker 1: which previously was something that I didn't know much about. Overall,
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  Speaker 1: Would we say that Iran's strategy has worked of provoking
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  Speaker 1: Israel and therefore provoking the United States.
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  Speaker 3: I think it's more complicated than that. Iran has certainly
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  Speaker 3: had some big losses in the conflicts that have erupted,
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  Speaker 3: as you say, since October seven, twenty twenty three, with
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  Speaker 3: the terrible ascu of israelis by Hamas, I mean Hamas,
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  Speaker 3: one of Iran's proxies, has been orbit destroyed, very weakened.
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  Speaker 3: They only have control of half of Gaza now at
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  Speaker 3: this moment, so that has been a blow to Iran
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  Speaker 3: to see Hamas so weakened. Hezbollah in Lebanon, while this
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  Speaker 3: will constitute itself to some degree, is still a much
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  Speaker 3: weaker force than it was before October seven because of
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  Speaker 3: all those repeated Israeli attacks on it in recent years.
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  Speaker 3: And also Syria, the Syrian regime has collapsed as well,
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  Speaker 3: so Iran has lost another ally there and so really
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  Speaker 3: Iran's position since October seven has not been strengthened. The
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  Speaker 3: only good news Iran has had since October seven has
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  Speaker 3: been this war with the US, in the sense that
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  Speaker 3: while it's still being very damaged, I mean, don't underestimate
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  Speaker 3: the damage to Iran's military across the board from those
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  Speaker 3: US and Israeli attacks.
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  Speaker 2: Breaking news this morning, Israeli officials say the supreme leader
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  Speaker 2: of Iran has been killed. Our after the US and
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  Speaker 2: Israel joined forces in a joint attack to topple the
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  Speaker 2: country's regime. American stealth bombers and submarines launched a massive,
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  Speaker 2: coordinated attack targeting three key nuclear sites.
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  Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump called the operation a spectacular military success.
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  Speaker 3: Also, its economy has been hugely damaged as well, but
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  Speaker 3: it has an absolute trump card in the control of
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  Speaker 3: the Stradahim was something which Donald Trump was warned about
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  Speaker 3: by his chiefs could happen, and he ignored it. And
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  Speaker 3: they've taken control. And this has really been the best
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  Speaker 3: news around has had for years. And it may be
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  Speaker 3: something that they can actually leverage for a long time.
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  Speaker 3: And that is exactly what they are trying to do.
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  Speaker 3: They've rolled the dice on this and they're going to
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  Speaker 3: make sure they keep the stradup from us. There's no
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  Speaker 3: sign of le They are going to keep it up without.
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  Speaker 1: A fight coming up. Does the rest of the world
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  Speaker 1: just have to get used to paying for the use
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  Speaker 1: of the strait of horn wars? Donald Trump might be
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  Speaker 1: willing to die on this hill, to die on this
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  Speaker 1: point of principle about the straight of home wars, but
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  Speaker 1: the rest of the world just needs their economies to
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  Speaker 1: get rolling again. Is there a possibility do you think
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  Speaker 1: that we're going to see Iran essentially in control of
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  Speaker 1: this straight and shipping companies paying a fee to get through.
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  Speaker 3: It may eventually be the case, because really Iran doesn't
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  Speaker 3: have to do much to stop the straight At the moment,
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  Speaker 3: the US is claiming the straight is open, Irans has closed.
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  Speaker 3: It's almost a semantic argument there, because really the fact
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  Speaker 3: is that no ships will go through under such uncertainty.
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  Speaker 3: Insurance companies won't cover them. The risks are too great.
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  Speaker 3: But of course Iran has to be a bit careful here.
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  Speaker 3: If they continue to close the straight of homes for
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  Speaker 3: the foreseeable future for too long, are you're going to
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  Speaker 3: see the countries in the Gulf especially just seek other
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  Speaker 3: ways to get that oil out of They were already
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  Speaker 3: seeing Saudi Arabia try overland roots. I mean, there's going
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  Speaker 3: to be alternatives that are being created because Iran's controlling
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  Speaker 3: the straight of homes so around these do Platt's hand
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  Speaker 3: fairly carefully here, but they certainly seem at this minute
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  Speaker 3: to be very determined to get some sort of toiling
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  Speaker 3: system going through the strait which will raise revenue for them.
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  Speaker 3: Of course, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio Pittex have said that's
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  Speaker 3: absolutely not on. And so this is going to be
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  Speaker 3: the standoff that we're going to see really developed in
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  Speaker 3: the next couple of weeks.
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  Speaker 4: Iran's battered military, the IOGC specifically has been reduced to
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  Speaker 4: a gang of pirates for the flag. They cloak their
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  Speaker 4: aggression in slogans, but the world now sees them for
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  Speaker 4: what they are, criminals on the high seas.
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  Speaker 1: What about those Golf States. Earlier this year, when Iran
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: started firing ballistic missiles on the Golf States, purportedly at
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: just American assets in those states, but effectively crippling all
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  Speaker 1: those economies and all those airports that are very much
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: connected to the West. Now Iran is warning the Golf
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  Speaker 1: States not to get involved. We did see a moment
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  Speaker 1: back then where potentially the Golf States might sort of
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: shift their allegiances over more towards the Israeli end of
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  Speaker 1: the spectrum.
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  Speaker 3: What happens now, It's a really interesting dilemma that the
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  Speaker 3: Golf States have now, I mean clear, if this war
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: is going to be an ongoing conflict, which at this
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: moment it does look like it will be, that is
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: a big problem for the Golf States. You know, as
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: you say, airlines of the world, including Australia, come through
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  Speaker 3: those Golf States. They sell themselves as islands, oasis islands,
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: you know, in the middle of the Middle East, and
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: their whole brand, if you like, goes down the drain.
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  Speaker 3: If there is a continuous threat of attacks from Iran,
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  Speaker 3: and I think these states are going to have to
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  Speaker 3: consider what the nature of their alliance with the US is.
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  Speaker 3: Of course, because the US has a military basis in
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: most of those golf states and they can't just get
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: rid of those military bases. It's not an easy thing
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: for them to do politically. Yet at the same time,
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  Speaker 3: there'll be a temptation at some stage, I think if
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: this conflict kept going clear stranger as it may seem,
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: for these golf sets to try and sign a non
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  Speaker 3: aggression pack, if you like, with Iran to simply stop
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  Speaker 3: those attacks happening. It's a very difficult position that they're in,
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  Speaker 3: and they're going to be sandwiched increasingly between the US
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  Speaker 3: and Iran, and Trump will put a lot of pressure
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  Speaker 3: on them to side, of course with the US.
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  Speaker 1: Well, Cameron, I don't think it'll be the last time
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  Speaker 1: we talk about this. Thank you very much for your.
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  Speaker 3: Time, pleasure.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent. You can
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: Follow this story and the latest from the Middle East
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: and the world right now at the Australian dot com
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  Speaker 1: dot au