Latest / HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull / We Compare Today’s Pullback To Past Bear Markets To Stay Rational

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We Compare Today’s Pullback To Past Bear Markets To Stay Rational · HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull

• 0:06
  SPEAKER_02: Welcome to Friday Live.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_02: Every Friday, some of the partners of HPK Provident get together and discuss what we're seeing going on in the markets, the economy, and tying in some financial planning topics.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_02: So today is March 27th.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_02: Got a couple more trading days left of the month still.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_02: But we have Mr.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_02: David Harper here with us today.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_02: David, how are you doing today?
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: Doing well, Mr.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: Mike.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: I'm uh I'm sure we're gonna be missing Brian Peluso um today.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: Uh but you usually we get very long-winded when the three of us are on.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: So that is true.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_02: So we're dealing with a little bit of volatility this week, some uh some potential headline and and tweet volatility going on.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_02: How are you uh how are you faring with that?
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_02: How are the client client reactions going so far?
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_02: We seen panic yet?
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_02: Is it time to buy?
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_02: Have we gotten that wash out?
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_01: I haven't seen much panic.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: I really haven't.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: I've seen uh uh been there done that before, even though this every crisis that comes up has its own individuality, it's it's all separate.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_01: But people have been people have realized that margins go up, they go down, they go sideways, um, but with a a long-term perspective and be able to have your have uh certain pockets of money, uh, money that's in cash, uh, that you can use for emergencies, that works out very well for times like this, uh, because it's not getting less volatile.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, for any bomb that drops in Iran, uh fiscally, um, we need to we need to tow the line and uh and allow those things to play out.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_02: Um that's what we have some good stuff.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_02: We're gonna take a look at the current market landscape, talk a little bit about the geopolitical stuff going on.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_02: Um, economic was a little light on the front, and then we're gonna compare that to the past two prior bear markets.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_02: Well, one was technically close to a bear market, 2025, but we're gonna kind of show you the comparisons, how price action typically moves, and how if you might be able to make adjustments as this thing goes on.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_02: So um, I'm not saying we're ultimately going into a bear market.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_02: This market remains very susceptible to headlines.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, just as we saw Monday, just a simple announcement can move markets greatly.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_02: Um, I think what the market's kind of saying now is yeah, White House, you can say whatever you want to say, but we don't really believe you.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_02: We learned this lesson this week.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_02: Like you can say whatever you want, but that doesn't mean you're actually in progress and like war is still going on.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_02: We just, I think we're talking about deploying more troops over to the strait.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_02: Um bombs are flying between Iran and Israel.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_02: So we're really not seeing any de-escalation now.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_02: I think they pretty much took that 15-point plan that we proposed and tossed it out the door.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so hopefully in the coming weeks we'll get some resolution because obviously no one wants to see people dying and war going on, but we're gonna focus on the markets here.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_02: Um, like I said, there really wasn't much economic data, and and it's really an uncertain environment right now until we see how long this goes on.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_02: And the obviously the longer it goes on, the more effects it's gonna have on the economy.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_02: Um, I want to one of the few pieces of data that we got this week was the um OECD comes out with uh a report, their economic outlook interim report.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_02: Um, they did raise their growth GDP forecast for this year, surprisingly.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe it was a little dated, but um up to three tenths, which is essentially 2% for the year.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_02: But 2027, they brought it down two tenths to 1.7.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_02: So they're seeing more of the growth impact, maybe potentially from this, being more of a 2027 story.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_02: Now, on the inflation front is is what's really notable.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_02: They ticked that up uh for 2026 to 4.1%.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_02: So I think that's, I mean, we're already, especially on the PCE numbers, we're already pretty elevated, uh kind of sitting above that 3% level.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_02: That might have even been higher than that this past month.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_02: So obviously, with uh crudes at 97 a barrel today, and it's been that way for the last three weeks, essentially, um, that's gonna have an impact on inflation.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_02: And the longer this goes on, the more impact it's gonna have on growth.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_02: We're already in a, I mean, although it was a low layoff environment in the economy, it was a very low hiring environment in the previous year.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_02: We were essentially 15,000 per month, which is essentially flat.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_02: And this year we had one big number, one big negative number.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, one big up number, one big down number.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_02: So I think we're still kind of essentially at that no hiring uh environment.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_02: So the longer this goes on, the more susceptible that's gonna be to cause corporations to start actually laying off workers.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_02: So fingers crossed that this doesn't last very long.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but we're gonna position how we position a little more on the cautious side.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_02: So let's take a look at the current setup right now.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_02: This is the SP 500.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_02: With today's decline, we're essentially about an 8.5% pullback.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_02: Uh international markets and uh like the NASDAQ have felt the sell-off even greater.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_02: I think the NASDAQ is officially in correction territory right now.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_02: So as you look at the setup, uh we are now below the 200 day, which we've tested a couple times, but um, this is gonna be the fourth close, I believe, below the 200 day.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_02: And we have violated these November lows.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_02: So, I mean, the potential for a bear market certainly increases in this environment.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_02: The price action is showing the sellers are stepping in, and this just makes us increasingly vulnerable.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_02: Now, what I'm gonna go into um, and before I do that, the 10-year bond yields have really spiked.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_02: So just as we saw in 2022, bonds haven't really been that safe, even not as declining as much as equities, but they are uh they are going down as well.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_02: So something to keep an eye on.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_02: Luckily, the high yield spreads have kind of come back in the last couple of days.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, I think we're at 2.17.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, really, the line on the sand there is 2.2.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_02: So anything above that level points to further upside, meaning more default risk.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but right now they're kind of in being tamed.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_02: So that's a good thing.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_02: Fix on the other hand, we did see a little spike up today.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, we're back around the 30 level uh back in March.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_02: Uh earlier in March, we got to about 35.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_02: These really aren't washout conditions.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_02: And I mean, we're just getting on the daily SP chart.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_02: We're just on the RSI, we're just getting to oversold conditions.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_02: So I anticipate another, maybe today, maybe one more day of this selling pressure before what I'm going to call potentially a counter-trend rally occurs.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_02: Now, let's take a look back at some of these prior uh bear markets.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_02: First, let's do the painful 2022 one, which was a decline from pretty much January until I think the final peak was in October.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_02: So, what we see with that is January 3rd to January 26th, we had close to a 10% decline.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_02: And then that did the 200-day level and essentially in line with the lows from the fall.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_02: So it did hold the lows from the fall.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_02: That was a good thing.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_02: We go on to rally 5.5%.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, bear turns out to be a bear market rally.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_02: You did have a chance to de-risk a little there if you wanted to.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but then we go on to decline another 12.3%, which does violate the 200 day once again and the October lows.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_02: So this is really a red flag that you're getting into a bear market.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_02: But positive side, you yet again have another chance to reposition your portfolio if if so fit.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_02: From that point, we have an 11% rally above the 200 day, which peaks out at March 29th, and then goes.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_02: So you have the opportunity once again, if you want to take some risk off the table, and then after that, we go down another 20%.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_02: Ultimately, it doesn't pay to panic, but to make little tweaks when we have those bear market rallies, it especially if you have liquidity needs, can be a good thing.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but if like unfortunately, like a lot of times people will panic when we're getting in that last phase and maybe even selling out when we're in that 20% plus decline.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_02: And unfortunately, these things usually work itself out over time.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_02: As you can see, 2024 was great, 2025, although we had some volatility in the beginning, which I'll go into in a second, turned out to be a great year.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_02: 2026 could ultimately turn out to be a great year, but we're gonna have some volatility in the first half.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and then going on to uh the 2025, you know, similar type of story.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_02: January 3rd, which was the peak in the 2022 bear market, uh, declined 4.3% to January 10th, still above the 100 and 200 day, unlike we're in right now.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_02: Then we have a 5.5% rally back near to all-time highs, peaking on February 21st, and then declining 8.8% below the 200 day and November lows.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_02: So that kind of sounds a little familiar to the current environment we're in right now.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_02: The numbers are pretty close to each other.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_02: But even with this, a 4.4% rally to the 200 day on March 25th.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_02: So here is your last chance to kind of if you're gonna do anything, do it now.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_02: Um, because before after that, we have close to another 14% decline.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_02: Now, this was a very short, almost bear market, and very V-shaped recovery.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_02: Um, it like it all, it's it's all gonna depend on how long this war goes to whether we get to a bear market, first of all, and whether that bear market results in a V-shaped recovery or more of a sustained drawdown like we had in 2022.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_02: So we're just not gonna keep an eye on all that.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_02: Um, we're constantly updating our economic projections.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_02: And like I said, the longer this lasts, the longer, the more impact it may have on the economy going forward.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_02: But my point with the current chart is yeah, we're in an eight and a half plus percent drawdown on that right now.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_02: We're getting close to oversold territory.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_02: We may potentially have a bear market rally in the coming days.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_02: What now, depending on the headlines, that could turn into a just an overall big picture.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_02: This was just a minor near correction in an overall bull market, but it could also turn into a bear market rally into a further leg down.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_02: So just be aware of that.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_02: Make sure you're positioned correctly for your liquidity needs, your risk uh willingness, how much you're able to endure, and how much you're willing to endure.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_02: So it's a good time when we get those rallies to just take a look at your portfolio.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_02: If you want us to do that, uh, we're here, we have our number listed on the top of the screen.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_02: We'd feel feel free to contact us and we'll be happy to answer any questions and take a look at your portfolio.
• 11:31
  unknown: Okay.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_01: Hey Mike, I I feel a whole lot better about 2026 than I do 2022.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I think the economic fundamentals are are significantly different.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_01: That our issue now is is the uh uh is the Iranian war.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um and when that gets settled, um, and like we all said, hopefully sooner than later.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, I I I really believe we'll we'll see a nice turnaround.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_02: So yeah, I think the potential for that still exists.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_02: Um but like I said, the longer this goes on, the more I'm gonna get a little more conservative in my thinking, um, because we're already seeing some pressure on inflation.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_02: It was already kind of at higher levels than we'd like it to be.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_02: So now the chances of a Fed rate hike over rate cut are actually increasing.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so you take monetary stimulus off.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_02: We still probably have that fiscal potential fiscal stimulus coming in at some point if the economy does take a turn.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_02: So there's always that potential for a quick snapback.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but yeah, we'll have to just adjust as as we see, let the technicals lead us and and go from there.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: Well, certainly policy decisions are gonna continue to impact uh uh the market.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_01: That that's that's part of reality, that's part of our reality for the for the time being.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_01: And it it's not going away uh anytime soon.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_01: So good.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you, Mike.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_02: Uh yeah, I think it's very important.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, like they say, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_02: It's popular saying in the investment community.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_02: Um but for a reason it's true.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_02: There's a lot of similarities between now and previous time periods.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_02: So, like I said, not a set, not guaranteed we're going into a bear market, but um the charts are are looking pretty similar to some of those.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_02: So fortunately, we de-risked a couple months ago, and uh when we if we do get that counter trend rally potentially, we'll have to see if we want to either take more exposure off the table at that point or potentially add to some.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_02: At some point, we'll we're gonna be buyers of this.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and I know for new new money that have come has come over to us, we're taking this as an opportunity, even though we're still only down eight and a half percent.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_02: Um, because it could it could snap back like that.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_02: We've seen it from time to time.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_01: Well, kudos to you, Mike, for picking up marathon petroleum for us.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: Uh that is that has been a nice play.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, that's worked out well.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you never know how long these things are gonna last, and it's kind of at the very least, uh hedge against your other equities, something that's not as correlated.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_02: And the thing with the refiners, um it's not as dependent on the price of oil, so you still have that correlation, but like it could still last beyond an immediate resolution.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_02: Obviously, it would probably come down if if there's any deal in the near future, but it still has those dynamics that could do well on the like income statement and balance sheet wise throughout the rest of the year, even if prices do come down.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_02: So don't know how long we'll be in it, and that's not a recommendation of any sort.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but yeah, that's the market.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_02: So let's get into the blog posts here.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_02: Uh can you let's see, I'm trying to remove that one.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_02: Clicked on the wrong one.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_02: So, David, we had uh Brian come out with his his uh Tax Tuesday campaign.
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, you want to tell us a little bit about that?
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_01: Uh Tax Tuesday, always a good one to read on the blog on Tuesdays.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_01: They're uh net investment income tax.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_01: This does not affect this affects only the high on high wage earners.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so if you have income for an individual of over 200,000 uh adjusted gross income, uh, or uh as a married couple, 250,000 of just a gross income, this will impact you.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: That's something that you want to take uh notice of.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_01: It's a 3.8% tax uh on anything that would that would go for interest, dividends, capital gains, rental income, and several more.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_01: Some uh I think some K1s are also involved in that.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_01: So it will, if your modified adjusted gross income is within those parameters, you're gonna get an you're gonna get an additional tax, something to be mindful for.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and if you end up uh especially for those higher wage earners, to to try to avoid this tax, um, you might need to look at maybe bumping up your 401k or your employer sponsored plan um up to those maximums if you were permitted.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and at that point, uh, that might draw down your modified adjusted gross income.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_02: That's good tips there.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, going on to Wednesday's post about Social Security, you want to tell us about this one too?
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: We are so fortunate to have uh we know uh Mike and I know enough about Social Security to make ourselves dangerous, but we happen to have a partner, Brian Peluso, who is an absolute expert when it comes to Social Security matters.
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_02: If you And as hard as it is to imagine, he actually makes this topic sound entertaining.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't take much to get uh uh Brian excited to talk about social security.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, he's he's he's so passionate about it.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's really fun to watch.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_01: And he's very good.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_01: We've had webinars in the past where he is just I I learned something from Brian every time he starts talking about social security, and I know quite a bit, but boy, um he can get in the weeds, and when you're going through the weeds, it's pretty entertaining uh how much he can pick up um and how much he knows.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_01: So if you be careful on who you get your social security um recommendations from, hopefully it's not the guy sitting next to you at the bar.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_02: Um okay, and we actually had a lead email him uh like a week or so ago, and they said, Oh, we I think they're out of California, and they're like, We we saw your um one of your posts.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_02: I have gotten three different answers from various people on the Social Security and Administrative Administration among some other professional members, and I've gotten different answers on any of them.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_02: So can you clarify this for me?
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_02: But I mean that's that's how it typically works.
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_02: Like, there's so much different uh information out there, like that fortunately, Brian studies this stuff very in-depthly and and knows it inside and out.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_02: So he's absolutely a great resource.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_02: If you have any questions about that, reach out to our office, give him a call.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um he can certainly help you with that.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_01: Uh as uh HPK Proven Advisors, we have that uh very beneficial for us.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_01: It's great to have him uh available as a resource.
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_02: And then we're not gonna spend much time on Thursday's post, although I I like the AAI uh sentiment data.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_02: This one is from the end of February.
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_02: Um, it's just showing the amount of bulls and bears.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_02: I assume that this bullish number has decreased quite a bit in the last uh essentially month.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_02: We're at the end of March now.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_02: Um so typically, I mean, these things can be taken as contrarian signals.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_02: So um usually actually, I I think I think statistically, the best rallies actually come from neutral readings on this number.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_02: People tend to interpret it as like extremes.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_02: So like when bearish sentiment gets to extremes, and sometimes that is the case, but a lot of times the rallies really come from like you know, climbing that wall of worry.
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_02: People aren't exactly sure which direction it's going, and it just creates that like little slow elevator creep.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_02: That's right.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_01: Uh take it with a grain of salt.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_01: Uh is these things we have a group that'll that'll do these uh things on a monthly basis and look looking forward six months.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_01: And it's pretty interesting to see how it can change from month to month in a short amount of time.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_02: So yeah, and usually usually these sentiment surveys, it's it's better doing the opposite than going with the trend, whether that's the retail investment surveys or the fund manager surveys.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_02: So bottom line is markets can be scary, they can cause panic on the flip side, they can get euphoric and think that nothing will ever end.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_02: Just don't get too emotional about it, just see it a little more black and white and and react with rationality.
• 20:42
  unknown: Okay.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_02: Sage advice, Mike.
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_01: Sage advice.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_02: Uh so next week I'm hoping that the headlines turn a little more to the economic data than the conflict going on.
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_02: I hope there's some progress on that front.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_02: We do have a lot of a lot of economic data coming out.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_02: We have the Joltz numbers on Tuesday, retail sales, and ISM manufacturing and ADP on Wednesday.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_02: Thursday, initial claims as always, and then Friday, the highlight of the week and month for me, non-farm payrolls.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_01: Well, boy, that's that's enough to uh that's enough to be really excited about, like good for me.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_02: And I think uh I don't I think the end of next week might be the official start of earnings season with the banks reporting.
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_02: I could be wrong by a week on that, but we should be right around that that time period.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_02: So more excitement to come.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_02: Revisions actually have been going up recently.
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know if that'll be a sustainable trend with the horror going on, but um, so far earnings are holding up well, and that means that valuations have dropped.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_02: I think we're on the S P 500 forward earnings, we're below 20, which I think the level's high 19s right now, and the five year I want to say average is about 19.1.
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_02: So it's It's really come back down quite a bit.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_02: We were essentially 22 plus, 22 and a half, maybe even a couple months ago.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_02: So values are values are out there, especially.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_02: Oh my gosh, the tech.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_02: I think the Mag 7's under 20 times right now.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_02: You haven't seen that in a decade.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_01: Well, at least it's lower than uh Paul Stein's uh ERA uh starting out because the first day of opening uh Major League Baseball.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_02: We got anything to add before we flip on the disclosures?
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_02: Anything exciting going on this weekend?
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_01: Nope.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we gotta we have a grandson birthday party and uh looking forward to spending some time with family.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_01: We suggest you do the same.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: Enjoy your families.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_02: All right, everybody.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_02: Well uh keep an eye out for our blog posts, and we'll be back at next Friday for Friday Live uh that'll be launched by 12:30 Eastern time.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_02: We've been kind of averaging more around the 11 o'clock launch point, just whenever we're available and have the information together.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_02: We want to get it out as soon as possible.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_02: So um this one's coming out essentially 11 o'clock, so keep an eye out around that time, and we'll see you next Friday.
• 23:21
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• 23:26
  SPEAKER_00: Advisory service is offered through LPL Financial LLC, a registered investment advisor.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: Brian Peluso, Michael Kutch, and David Harper are registered representatives of LPL Financial LLC.
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