Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | Never Listen to Me | NBA Finals & MLB & WNBA | 6/10/26

Transcript

Wednesday BEST BETS | Never Listen to Me | NBA Finals & MLB & WNBA | 6/10/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Man, a hole in your chicks, black coffee on the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 4: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 4: Your name still mean something? Ne somebody for show. Put
• 0:41
  Speaker 4: the glass down, baby, look at me?
• 0:46
  Speaker 5: No, hold on, hold on nothing nice not now.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Hold on, Hold up me, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back with you with
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: Toadstool Sports, Wednesday, June tenth, Never listen to me obviously
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: one and two on the show yesterday, Seattle Mariners were
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: the win out of the three. Should have been easier.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: They're winning the game. After they were down one nothing,
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: they took the lead, and then they were winning four
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: to one in the eighth inning, I think, and four
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: to two in the ninth inning, and they blew the
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: lead and then had to win an extra innings. I
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: was a little bit worried about that because their bullpen
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: was not fully rested, even though I went with the
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: full game anyway, But they won luckily. I guess first
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: five I guess maybe would have been easier. I think
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: they were winning after five. Maybe I'm wrong about that,
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: but whatever. The first five under in that Twins Detroit
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: game was disgusting. Tadj Bradley was awful. Melton actually wasn't
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: that bad. Like if you'll get his pitching line, he
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: should have given up fewer runs than he did. Like
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: basically everybody that reached base scored really on both sides.
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: So it still wasn't the right call. But it was
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: worse than it looked, or it was not as bad
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: as it looked, I should say. And then Cincinnati, I
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: mean that should have been a winner. Chase Burns. They
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: won the full game too, And that was what I
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: was worried about, Like do you really want to go
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: full game with Cincinnati's bullpen against San Diegos? I don't,
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: But Cincinnati won that game an extra innings. Burns out
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: pitched Gilido in the game. Cincinnati never trailed in the
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: first five innings. They're winning the game two to nothing
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: in the third inning or something, and then it was
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: tied at the end of five, so that play lost
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: and if you went money line on it, you would
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: have at least pushed it, but the minus half run
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: was the better price, and they blew the lead and
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: didn't have it at the end of five. I'm pretty pissed.
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: I hate today's board. I'm gonna have one baseball play
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: and I don't even like it. I really don't. I
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: hate the baseball board today. I hate everything that I'm
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: seeing today. Do not listen to me on anything ever, Josh,
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: what's up? Gerald? What's up? Yeah? No, I suck. I
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: would not have played the Canes. I definitely would not
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: have done that. I have some huge question marks with
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: their goaltending situation there. Yeah, thank you the Reds. I
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: think we're pretty clearly the right play, though. I'm pissed
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: about that. The under that I had was bad, but
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: it should have been a two in one day. I'm
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: fucking pissed. All Right, we have afternoon baseball. The team's
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: playing in the afternoon, are all traveling after this. It's
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: Wednesday baseball. I feel a little bit better. I hopefully,
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: hopefully I'm gonna be good enough by tonight so I
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: can go out tonight. I don't know about that, not entirely.
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: I mean, Carolina blew a three goal lead in the game,
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: so they definitely have some goaltending problems. In that game,
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: they were maybe the slightly better team in the game.
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: I looked at the stats, it wasn't I don't think
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: it was like lopsided really, Red Sox and Tampa Bay.
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: Of course, the Red Sox are about to get swept
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: in this fucking series. When the Red Sox should have
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: won Game one with early against the bullpen game, and
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: now the Red Sox are looking getting swept here and
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: they have the worst pitching matchup of the series in
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: this game. So isn't that just fucking great? There are
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: twelve and a half games behind Tampa right now. Red
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: Sox are going with Jake Bennett in this game. Oh right,
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: I have to talk about the bullpen use. Yeah, Red
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: Sox did only use two relief pitchers. The bullpen is
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: the only thing good about the Red Sox. Tampa Bay
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: also used two. Red Sox are number three in bullpen whip.
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay is sixteenth and their era is significantly worse. Yes,
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: the Braves loss on a walk off. Yes, the guy
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: who hit the home run was in his major league debut. Well,
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: the only like five batters have done that before. Only
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: one of them ever like amounted to anything, So it's
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: it's kind of a fluky thing. Hitting wise, the Red
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: Sox blow. They're back at twenty seventh. This offense cannot
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: get going. Tampa Bay is twelfth. Red Sox are going
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: with Jake Bennett. Like I said, he's a young guy,
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: he's got some talent. He's made two starts so far.
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: He's got a four point three to five ERA one
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: point four or five whip that is obviously not good.
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: He made one decent start against Houston and then he
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: made one pretty bad start. And guess who it was against. Yeah,
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: it was against Tampa Bay on May seventh. So Tampa
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: Bay is one of the only teams that's ever seen
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: him before, and that's who he has to face today,
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: so he doesn't have the unfamiliarity edge anymore. Tampa Bay
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: beat him the first time. I guess the one good
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: thing you'd say about him is he's an extreme ground
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: ball pitcher. But this is like David Peterson shit. Like.
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: He's got a low strike out rate, his walk rate's
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: not really that great, his hit rate is mediocre. I
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: don't trust Bennett, especially against a team that's faced him
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: already and already did damage against him. Uh. Sometimes when
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: you see that, like if it's like a veteran pitcher,
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: he might make the adjustments. I don't trust Bennett to
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: do that. Tampa Bay has eighteen at bats against him,
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: three point thirty three average, seven h two ohps. Isn't
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: really that bad. They don't have any extra base hits
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: against him, one strike out, one walk. I still don't
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: like it. Drew Rasmus and his picture for Tampa he's
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: probably their best pitcher. Uh, he's got a three R.
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: Actually it's probably McLanahan then rasmusen he's got a three
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: e R point nine to two whip. He's been a
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: little bit worse at home though, three point six to
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: two homey ra pitch Well in his last outing had
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: a seven inning and one hit shot out of Miami
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: with nine strikeouts and no walks. At least struggled the
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: outing before that. Kind of alternated good and bad starts
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: over the last three. But overall he's got pretty good numbers,
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: decent strikeout rate, pretty low walk rate, and definitely a
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: low hit rate. But the Red Sox have hit him
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: okay in thirty eight at bats three sixteen average seven
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: h two ops though again is not really that high,
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: and the only extra base hits are two doubles from Yoshida,
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: so he better be in the lineup. That's all. I
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: gotta say, seven strikeouts, one walk there. I don't trust
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox to be able to get it done,
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: even though usually the team that's on the verge of
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: getting swept, usually he's gonna show up with extra motivation,
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: so they at least have that. I guess money is
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: coming in towards the Red Sox, so there is that
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay is around minus one fifty something, and I
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: guess if you want to do like the the pricing thing,
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: you could potentially argue that Tampa Bay is a little
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: bit overpriced here because the Red Sox are actually a
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: favorite in Game one of this series, that was because
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: it was against a bullpen game, though yesterday's line with
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: was a toss up, and now the Rays are minus
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: one fifty something here, so you could argue that's over
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: adjusted a little bit, which I think is what the
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: money is kind of saying here. Seventy nine percent of
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: the tickets is sixty three percent of the cash on
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay. Money is also coming in towards the over.
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: You know, I mean there is an argument for the over.
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: I guess with Bennett having just seen Tampa Bay. Uh,
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: they did well against them. The Red Sox have done
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: okay against Rasmusen, so I guess maybe there is kind
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: of an argument for the over. But I could also
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: see some arguments for an under if you just make
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: the argument that these are both okay pitchers and the
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: fact the total is seven and a half. The oddsmakers
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: are kind of telling you this is supposed to be
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: a low scoring game here. I don't want to deal
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: with it. I mean, I think Tampa Bay probably wins
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: this game, but there's no way I'm gonna have a
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: play on that game. Absolutely not. I'm feeling woozy right now. Man.
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: There's something going on. This is bad. What is going on? Man?
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: I gotta get this show done, dirty sock? What's up? Next? Game?
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: Is my only play of the day. This better be
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: a winner, man, because I don't know what else to
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: tell you. This is Yankees Cleveland, right Yeah, so we
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: have an afternoon game. The day is gonna be over
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: right away. It's either gonna be a win or a loss.
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: We're gonna go first five under the four in Yankees Cleveland.
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: I found it at minus one oh five out there.
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: You could go full game on this. It's eight for
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: the full game. The pens are both okay, but they're
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: pretty used here. Cleveland us a lot of guys over
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: the last two days. They used four guys out of
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: the bullpen yesterday. New York used five yesterday and use
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: the like their entire bullpen the day before that. So
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: I'm just gonna avoid the bullpens here. Both bullpens are okay.
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: Cleveland is twelfth, Yankees are fourteenth. Yankees have a better
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: bullpen Erra, but I'm skipping out on the bullpens here.
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna only focus on the starting pitching. Hopefully it's
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: the right move. Yankees are number two in offense, but
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: as I've pointed out, they're not as good at hitting
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: on the road, and Aeron Judge is still out, so
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: there is that. So the Yankees offense has been a
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: little bit less recently because Judge has been out. Cleveland
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: hasn't hit well. Cleveland's at twenty six after they were
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: hot hitting in the in early May. They've been bad
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: for a while now. And I think the starting pitching
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: can get us this one. Carlos wordone is pitching for
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: the Yankees. He's come back from injury and he started
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: pitching basically up to the level that you usually get
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: out of him. Two point eight eight ERA, one point
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: two WHIP and that includes a couple of starts that
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: weren't good early when he first came back. He's got
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: a three point eight six road ERA, so he is
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: a little bit worse on the road, but in a
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: short sample size, I'm not too concerned with that. He's
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: basically gotten better as the season has gone on. His
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: walk rate is too high, though, that is the one
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: concern here. His hit rate is really low fourteen and
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: twenty five innings sixteen walks is a problem though twenty
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: seven strikeouts is pretty good. But he's allowed two or
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: fewer on runs in the last four outings and he's
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: allowed one each in his last three. And yes, he
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: did just face Cleveland, but that was his best part
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: of the season. He went six innings, two hits, one
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: on and run in Yankee Stadium, which is more hit
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: or friendly than Cleveland Stadium. Is seven strikeouts, three walks.
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: I know it's too many walks. I know Cleveland just
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: saw him, but he's a veteran. He's not really a
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: mystery to any but you know, he's in his thirties.
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: All these guys have faced him before, so I don't
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: think that's gonna be that much of an advantage to
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: Cleveland having seen him recently. He's got one hundred and
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: twenty six at bats against Cleveland, so I don't think
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: the fact that they've seen him recently is really gonna
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: help them. His strikeout walk issue isn't good against them
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: thirty one to fifteen, but eight of those walks are
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: Jose Ramirez, so he does pitch around him, but nobody
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: else really does that much damage against him. He's got
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: a two fourteen batting average against and six thirty nine ops.
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: Those are decent numbers, large sample size to work with,
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: so I think Rodon should pitch well here, and Parker
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: Messik is going for Cleveland. He's been good, debatably their
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: best pitcher, even though he's really young. Two point four
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: ERA one point zero seven whip. He's been basically the
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: same home and away. It doesn't even matter. He was
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: okay in his last outing at Texas. You kind of
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: wish it was better because that's a pitcher friendly environment.
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: But he got a little bit on lucky giving up
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: two home runs. I'm not too concerned by that because
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: his home run rate has not really been a problem.
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: Like his numbers across the board are pretty strong. Low
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: hit rate, high strike out rate, walk rate not too
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: bad either. All these numbers are good. And then the
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: Yankees have never faced him before, so he should have
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: an extra advantage here, as I always say, when you
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: have these young pitchers and the hitters that haven't seen
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: him before, the hitters have to kind of figure him
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: out the first time they see him. So we're gonna
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: go under first five here in Yankees Indians, and let
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: me see what the market looks like here. We're don't
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: let's see. Of course I can get rid of this FAQ,
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: this fucking website. Man, the money's on the over here.
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: I don't agree with that, although that's the full game
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: market there. But even so, and I lost it already there.
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: It is fifty nine percent of tickets, ninety five percent
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: of the cash on the over That worries me a
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: little bit, but whatever, total eight for the full game,
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: Like I said, eight juice to the under at most places,
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: money is coming in on the Yankees as well, sixty
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: six percent of ticket sixty eight percent of the cash
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: on the Yankees. Cleveland is actually favored slightly. Uh so
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: the odds makers are giving Messek a lot of respect here.
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: I don't really know about that. I mean, the Yankees
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: have a massive offensive edge here, and I think the
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: starting pitching should be a bit of a duel here.
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: The total is pretty low in the game, so the
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: odsmakers are kind of telling you that. So in a
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: situation like that, Yankees is an underdog even though they're
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: I think the better team. You know, maybe they're at
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: a slight disadvantage with that starting pitching matchup, but I
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: don't think by that much. So that's probably why the
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: money is on the Yankees. But I'm not gonna try
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: to pick a side in that game. The Yankees are
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: on the version of sweep, by the way, so Cleveland
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: might have a little bit extra motivation here because the
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: Yankees could overlook them. Even though the games have been
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: close in the series. Yankees have already won the series,
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: so they are do you have the revenge? Because Cleveland
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: won two out of three in New York, So the
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: Yankees are probably satisfied if they win two out of
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: three here. To be honest, the Yankees have Toronto on deck.
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: Toronto's way behind them. But maybe the Yankees do look
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: ahead to Toronto because Toronto is the team that knocked
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: them out of the playoffs last year. Although I believe
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: the Yankees have already played Toronto once this year already.
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: But whatever under first five is the play in that one?
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: And there are fours out there. Uh, I don't think
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: it's a carbon monoxide league. I have a carbon monoxide detector,
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: so hopefully that's not correct. Washington at San Francisco. San
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: Francisco is on the version of getting swept here at home,
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: so they might show up extra for this game. I
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: forget who Washington plays next. Let me say Washington is
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: playing Seattle next. I don't really know if that's really
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: a look ahead or not. They're gonna be returning home
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: to face Seattle in two days, but you might get
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: a little bit of extra effort from San fran because
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: they're avoiding trying to avoid the sweep peer Washington. Basically,
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: Washington has the better offense and the worst pitching generally,
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: but in this particular game. I'm not even sure that
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: that's accurate. Washington did use four relief pitchers yesterday. San
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: Francisco used five, and I don't even think the game
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: went into extra innings, did it? No, it didn't. Three
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: games went into extra innings, This is not one of them.
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: A lot of bullpen usage in that game yesterday, though.
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: Neither bullpen has been good though San Francisco's twenty fifth
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: and Washington's twenty third. Although Washington has the worst era,
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: I think San Francisco's bullpen is the slightly better one,
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: but it hasn't been by that much. Offensively, Washington has
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: been far better. They're number five, and they're really good
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: on the road. The Giants are number eleven, I think,
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: but I don't buy that. Again, actually they're tied in tenth,
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: but I don't buy it. Like I said, the Giant's
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: had like three games with their offense just completely exploded,
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: which I think is an outlier. One of them is
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: in course field. I don't think the Giants offense is
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: that good at all. Foster Griffin is pitching for Washington.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty good somehow at the age of thirty,
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: with not a lot of major league experience. Maybe he's
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: kind of riding that unfamiliarity, but he's been pretty good
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: three point six y three ERA, one point one WHIP.
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: He's been better on the road as well, three point
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: four roadra He's facing what I think is a weak
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: offense here, He's gonna be in a pitcher friendly stadium here.
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: That all seems to line up decently for him. He
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: pitched well in his last start against Arizona on the road,
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: so he's in decent form right now. Two of his
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: last three starts are pretty good, debatably got a little
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: bit unlucky in the bad one against San Diego, so
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: you could argue three decent starts in a row and
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: his team won all three of them. So Washington has
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: been winning a lot of his games recently. He's got
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: a very low hit rate. His home run rate is
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: a bit high, but that might be less concerning in
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: a park like San Francisco's. His strikeout rate is decent
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: and his walk rate is like slightly high but not bad.
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: Giants basically have never seen him before. Only Arai Az
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: has ever faced him. One for two with an RBI single,
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: no strikeouts, no walks, so Griffin I think does actually
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: set up to pitch well. Here. Robbie Ray is pitching
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: for the Giants. He has not been pitching that well recently.
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: He's got a four point one to two ERA one
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: point four whip is kind of bad though, putting too
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: many guys on base. He has been good at home though,
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: two point seven to eight home ERA, so he is
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: significantly better at home. Hasn't been pitching well recently though,
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: hasn't gone deep into many of these games. He's only
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: reached five innings once in his last five starts. That
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: is not good, although four of them are on the road,
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: including last time out where he had a shutout of
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: the Cubs and got a win. But he walked five
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: guys in that game in five innings, so that's not
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: a good sign. Two starts prior to that, he walked
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: seven against the White Sox and that was at home.
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: Uh So he's not in good form right now. Man,
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: Maybe Chicago throws him off the city of Chicago, although
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: only one of those games is in Chicago. But yeah,
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: Ray doesn't look like he's pitching well right now. He's
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: got a pretty good hit rate, decent strike out rate,
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: his walk rate is way too high, though Walks have
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: been a huge issue for him, especially recently. Numbers against
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: Washington are good though, in thirty one at bets one
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: ninety four average five forty one oh ps nine to
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: one strike out walk ratio. So what do we do
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: with this? You know, I think it's more likely that
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: Washington gets the job done here, even though I know
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: they're going for the sweep here. I might kind of
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: lean that way slightly on the side, but the money
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: is on San Francisco. You can see why I don't
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: like these games today. Sixty one percent of the tickets
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: are on Washington, eighty four percent of the cash on
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: San Francisco to try to avoid the sweep. Now, Ray
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: does have some things going for him. He's good at home,
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: he's good against Washington typically, But is that enough. I
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: don't know, because he's in bad form right now. Washington
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: has hit well on the road this year, So those
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: are some negatives there. I see fewer negatives with Griffin here,
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: So I think Washington makes some sense here as a
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: small dog, maybe in the first five innings, although they
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: might be a little bit of a favorite in the
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: first five innings. But if you want to avoid Washington's
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: bullpend because they're they're not good, So yeah, first five
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: Washington makes some sense. I could see more arguments for
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: an under probably than an over, because you're still getting
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: Ray in the good of his home road splits him.
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: Both pitchers might have a good match up here, but
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: the money's coming in on the over. The totals eight,
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: which is not high. Seventy nine percent of tickets eighty
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: seven percent of the cash on the over. Under makes
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: some sense to me in that game, So do with
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: that information what you want. But I don't want to
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: play that game. They're just you'll see with today's games,
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: there are just way too many conflicting factors here. The
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: game that I gave out has most indicators going one way,
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: and that's the only one that I could find that
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: was like that. Cincinnati at San Diego. This is the
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: last of the after noon games. This will be a
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: Pacific Coast after noon game. Both teams probably show up
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: here because these teams have split the first two games
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: of the series, so I kind of expect both teams
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: to have motivation here. Cincinnati is not really a good team,
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: but they have an offensive edge. At the very least.
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati did use six relief pitchers yesterday in what was
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: an extra inning game where we lost on the first
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: five innings and Cincinnati won the full games. So isn't
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: that just great? San Diego basically unloaded their entire bullpen.
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: Mason Miller's pitched four of the last five days. This
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: is ridiculous. So San Diego normally they have a huge
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: bullpen advantage in this matchup, but both bullpens are completely
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: tax I don't think I would want either bullpen in
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: whatever I do here. San Diego is number four and
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: bullpen they're a very good bullpen. Cincinnati is dead last
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: in WHIP and their second worst in ERA to Colorado,
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: really bad, So San Diego still does have a bullpen edge.
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: I guess I don't know who they're gonna use. Miller
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: probably will not be appearing in this game. Brady Singer's
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: pitcher for Cincinnati. That could not I mean, that could
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: potentially be a bad thing for Cincinnati. He has not
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: been good five point eight to nine ERA one point
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: six' nine, whip but doesn't really make sense to. Me
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: he's better at, home even though it's one of the
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: most hitter friendly parks in. Baseball he's worse on the
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: road six point nine to. Seven Roady ray makes no.
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: Sense but this is a pitcher friendly ballpark though In San,
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: diego and he has good numbers Against San. Diego they
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: only have four guys who have ever faced him forty
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: five at bats and they have not been successful against.
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: Him nine, strikeouts no, walks one seventy eight average four
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: to eighty nine. Ops so this particular matchup might actually
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: be good For. Singer so it's difficult to figure this
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: out right because he. Sucks he's not a good form right,
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: now and he's really bad on the. Road but this
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: specific matchup looks like he might actually be able to do.
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: Okay his last couple, starts he's had three plus walks
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: in each of. Them he's failed to make it five
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: innings in four of the last five. Starts cincinnati's lost
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: every start of his through the beginning Of. May that's
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: all pretty. Awful he's got a low strikeout, rate his
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: walk rates not. Great he's a lot of ton of
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: home runs and his hit rate is ridiculously high. TOO
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: i would not want to trust Sim. MAN i know
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: he's got a good match up. Here he might do.
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: Okay But Michael king is pitching For San. Diego he's
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: pretty clearly the more trustworthy of these. Pitchers he's got
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: a three point four to ONE, era one point one
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: to TWO, whip three point one to eight HOME, era
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: so he is better at, home which makes sense pitcher friendly.
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: Ballpark we faded him in his last outing against The
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: mets and we got the win, there but he wasn't
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: really that bad in that. Game he went six, innings four,
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: strikeouts no, walks six, hits four and runs, allowed got
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: a little bit unlucky along two home. Runs we still
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: got the win with, that Which i'm happy. About it
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: was a good situational spot And king did not have
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: good matchup, numbers but he didn't even pitch. Badly SO
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: i Think king is pretty much still, informed even though
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: he actually wasn't that good in the previous two. Outings
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: BUT i think he's probably gonna set up to pitch.
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: Okay here would be my. Guest he has a really
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: low hit rate on the, season strikeout rate is, okay
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: but not as high as you would, think and his
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: walk rate is too, high so that's one thing that
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: he kind of has to work. On cincinnati doesn't have
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: great numbers against him in thirty five at, bats thirteen,
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: strikeouts two, walks two twenty nine average seven to twenty seven.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: Ops So king looks like he matches up well. Here
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: both pitchers have a good matchup. Here BUT i think
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: you probably gotta lean In San diego here if you're
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: gonna look at the SIDE i, MEAN i could see
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: arguments for the under here as. WELL i would only
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: go first. Five if you go under, under you, know
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: does make sense to me as far as, like both
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: pitchers have good matchups. Here money coming in on the
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: over though the totals eight sixty four percent of tickets
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: eighty two percent of the cash on the. Over if
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: you go under, here you gotta do it first five
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: innings though you do not want anything to do With cincinnati's. Bullpen,
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: uh probably you don't want anything to do With San diego's,
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: either with how unrested they, Are so first five under
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: makes some sense to. Me money is actually Fading San diego,
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: here WHICH i would not want to do, that although
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: that kind of is an indicator towards the. Under so
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: the market is giving some conflicting. Signals you're mixed signals
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: from the, market. Ma'am it's like a. Woman you can't read,
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: it you, know like you'd think that if the money
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: was coming in towards Towards, cincinnati the professional betters are
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: kind of, saying we Think singer might actually pitch okay
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: here and that would be more of an indicator of an.
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: Under but the market's indicating On cincinnati in an over
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: doesn't really make sense to. Me eighty two percent, tickets
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: seventy percent of the cash On San, diego so the
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: money is fading San diego, there WHICH i don't really
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: agree with. That San diego's around minus one sixty something,
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: though so some of it does have to do with the,
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: price but the price might be. WARRANTED i, Mean king
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: is definitely the better pitcher. There so those are my
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: thoughts on that. Game seattle In. Baltimore this series continues,
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: tomorrow Although seattle's won the first two of the four game,
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: series So baltimore might you, know show up with a
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: little extra effort here because they've lost the first two
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: games of the. Series baltimore did use four relief pitchers,
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: yesterday and this was an extra inning game as. Well
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: the one game that we, Won seattle also used four relief.
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: Arms seattle has the better bullpen though they ranked, fifteenth
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: but they have one of the top, eras so they're
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: pretty a. Bullpen baltimore's ranked eighteenth of THE era is considerably,
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: worse So seattle does have the better. Bullpen these teams
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: are tied offensively at. Twelve George kirby is pitching For.
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: Seattle he's been. Alright four point FOUR era one point
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: two eight whip is a little bit. High he's been
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: better on the, road, which again with The seattle, Pitchers
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: i'm not used to seeing a bunch of them being
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: better on the road than at. Home doesn't make any.
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: Sense Like kirby And, gilbert they both allowed way more
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: home runs In seattle this, year And seattle's a very
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: picture friendly. Park it makes absolutely no, sense but it's
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: a small. Sample kirby three point two to three road ra,
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: though so he's been good on the. Road he was
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: way too hit uble on his last outing, though like
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: two of his last three outings he's gotten. Hit Kansas
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: city took him for nine hits in six, innings although
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: there were Some there was some bad fielding that didn't
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: allow him to get out of that. Game and then
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: The mets had nine hits off him in, four but
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: again there were some errors in that. Game, again so
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: you could make the argument that wasn't really his fault
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: and that he is still pitching fairly. Well he's been
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: a bit too hittable though over the course of the.
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: Season his hit rate is too. High his walk rate is,
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: good his strikeout rate is not, high BUT i think
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: that's kind of what you get out of. Him his
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: numbers Against baltimore are, mediocre like they're right around, Average
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: so it's, like who even has the advantage? Here Between
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: kirby And baltimore's. Bats they got one hundred and eight
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: at bats against him twenty eight to two strike at walk.
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: Ratio that is pretty. Crazy so he's definitely had good
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: command numbers against. Them but they have a two fifty
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: nine average and seven to forty five ohps against, him
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: so they have been able to hit him a. Bit.
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: Still those are not great offensive, numbers but they might
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: be good enough THAT i don't really want to jump
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: On kirby. Here Brandon young is pitching for The. Orioles
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: he might be a little bit under the radar, man
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: ALTHOUGH i know HIS zra looks good three point four
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: to seven and his whip is not that good one
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: point three, four so his whip is the worst of
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: the two starters, here indicates that his ra should be
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: higher than it. Is but young isn't that. Bad you,
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: Know he's still he is still kind of. Young he's
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: got some. Talent he's got home road splits that are very.
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: Insignificant he's pitched well over the last month or. So
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: he's allowed three or fewer earned runs over then in
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: every start over that entire. Span problem is the. Walks
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: he's allowed too many, Walks but in his last three
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: outings the walk number has gone down two or fewer
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: in each and The orioles have won every start of
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: his except one on the entire. Season that's. Interesting The
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: orioles continue to win behind. Him they're giving him run,
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: support for. Sure but he's pitched. Okay his hit rate is,
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: okay it's right around one per. Inning his walk rate
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: is a little bit, high so that's not. Great his
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: strike out rate is a bit too low as. Well
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: but he's been, okay probably better than people. Think And
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: seattle's never faced him, before so he might actually have
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: a little bit of an advantage here because he's going
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: up against an offense that is gonna have to figure
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: him out on the. Fly so you, KNOW i might
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: Lean baltimore slightly. Here baltimore maybe first. Five Though baltimore's
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: offense has Seen seattle's pitcher Before, kirby so there is
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: familiarity versus unfamiliarity. Here that might be enough to Grab
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: baltimore as a first five inning, underdog WHICH i assume they.
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: Are THAT'S i think that's the WAY i would lean.
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: Here money does agree with. That sixty seven percent of,
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: tickets sixty percent of the cash On, seattle they're around
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: minus one twenty something here they are the better. Team but,
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: YEAH i think it might make sense to go first
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: Five baltimore. THERE i would not want to include their.
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: Bullpen seattle still has the better. Bullpen money's also coming
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: in on the over for what that's. Worth total is
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: pretty high at, nine so the oddsmakers are kind of
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: expecting both offenses to do some damage in that. ONE
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: i don't know about that, necessarily all, Right Arizona. Miami
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: this series also continues. TOMORROW i think they've only played
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: one game in the series so. Far, Yes miami won
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: yesterday ten to. Six they've been, hot they've won six
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: of their last seven, games including three in a. Row
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: miami did use five relief pitchers. Yesterday arizona used, four
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: so some bullpen usage yesterday not exactly. Great and that
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: was not an extra inning game last night, either SO
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: i don't. Know that's not too great bullpen. Wise miami
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: has a good bullpen in general number, Eight arizona number,
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: nine but THE era is in the, fours which is not.
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: Great SO i don't. KNOW i don't know IF i
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: would trust these bullpens in the rest scenario that they're.
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: In hitting, wise these teams haven't been that Good miami
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: Nineteen arizona twenty two when we are in a pitcher
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: friendly park. Here BUT i looked at the starting pitching
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: matchup in the fact that the bullpens are kind of,
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: unrested AND i was kind of thinking this looked like
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: an over to. Me but THEN i started looking at
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: it more AND i don't. Know Ryan nelson is pitching
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: for the D. Backs you, Know i'm not a fan of,
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: his but he's got a one point one to eight
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: whip this, Year so even though he's got a four
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: point SIX, era which is not, great his whip is pretty.
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: Good it indicates that he's been better than what HIS
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: ra would, suggest and he's been good on the road
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: three point seventy four ROAD. Yra nelson pitched fairly well
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: last time out against The, dodgers so that's a decent.
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: Sign kind of makes sense that he's worse at, home
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: by the, way Because, ARIZONA i, think is a more
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: hitter friendly. Ballpark he wasn't good in his previous outing At.
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: SEATTLE i don't know what's going on With seattle allowing
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: all these like just The seattle, BALLPARK i, mean is
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: having all these home runs hit in that park this?
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: Year usually that is not the case at. All SO
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: i don't know what the deal is, there But nelson
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: to get kind of blasted in that. Game but if
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: you take that game, out he was actually good throughout
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: the entire month Of. May So nelson is actually kind
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: of in good form, HERE i believe it or. Not
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: he's got a low strikeout ran on the, season but
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: his hit rate is pretty. Low his walk rate's not that.
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: Bad he's an extreme fly ball, pitcher, though so he's
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: a lot a lot of home, runs so that is
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: kind of an, issue may not be as much of
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: an issue In, miami, though because it's some more pitcher
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: friendly park And miami has not really seen much of.
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: Him even Though nelson's been around for a, While miami
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: only has three hitters have ever faced, him only one
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: extra base hit a double from A Story. Ruiz five,
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: strikeouts three, walks one sixty seven average five eighty three.
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: Ops nelson might actually match up okay here Man he's
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: got some unfamiliarity behind him here as. Well and the
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: good news For arizona is they get to go up
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: Against Ryan, gusto who does not. Pitch With, gusto he is.
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: Terrible he's got a ten point EIGHT era one point eight.
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: Whip he was awful With houston last. Year he's been
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: bad at, home even though he's been better at home
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: than on the. Road not it's a small sample. Though
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: he's only made three appearances so, far but he hasn't
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: gone more than two winnings in any. Outing so he's
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: actually probably gonna be an opener, here which might even
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: be worse because that Means miami's going with a bullpen
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: game and their bullpen is not. Rested last time they
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: did this was this game WHERE i think they actually
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: Did they actually won the. Game, no that Was Max
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: meyer or what are we looking at? HERE i don't even. Know,
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: man let me look At. Gusto when was his last?
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: GAME i don't. Know these teams seem like they're, shifting
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: like their pitching responsibilities Around gusto last pitch on the,
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: Fifth so let's see what they did in that game he,
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: started and then they Use phillips behind, him so they
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: might be doing that. AGAIN i have no. Idea, yeah
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: that's probably what they're doing Because phillips last pitch in
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: that game as, Well SO i think they're gonna Go Gusto.
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: Phillips probably they might flip the two of them, two
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: but either, way it doesn't look good to. Me Although
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: phillips actually has good numbers Against, arizona but it's in
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: a very small sample, size SO i don't think that
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: really matters. MUCH i don't Trust miami's pitching at all
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: in this. GAME i Like arizona, here AND i think
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: if you do play this, game Plus arizona's kind of
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: in a bounce back after getting blown out, YESTERDAY i
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: think if you do play, this you should Pick nelson must,
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: start but action on The miami, side you know WHAT i? Mean,
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: like you Want nelson to, start because that's part of the.
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: Handicap But, miami you pretty much know it's gonna be
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: gust And phillips one after the, other but you don't
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: know which one is gonna, start, Really SO i think
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: that's the WAY i would play it Is, Arizona nelson must,
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: start but don't select the starter must start For miami
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: because it's probably gonna be one of those two, guys
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: and they're probably both gonna pitch a decent chunk of that.
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: Game arizona is getting the, money so the market agrees with.
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: Me they're right around to pick them price even slightly
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: lower than that sixty tickets eighty six percent of the
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: cash On, Arizona so the money does agree with.
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Me.
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: There the totals eight eight and a half with money
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: coming in towards the over in that, game, which LIKE i,
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: said WHEN i first glanced at that, game the over
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: made some sense to me. THERE i, mean there were
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: probably still more indicators starts and over than an under
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: in that. Game BUT i Think arizona on the side
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: is the better approach in that. One dodgers And, pittsburgh,
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: MAN i, mean that's one of those Games that makes
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: me feel smart Because pittsburgh lost twelve to, three AND
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: i told you that the WAY i would play that
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: game yesterday Was pittsburgh first five. Innings that was a.
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: Win pittsburgh was winning the game two to one after five,
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: innings and Then skeens gave up one more. Run they
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: Took skeens out in The pittsburgh's bulpend gave up ten
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: runs to The dodgers in the seventh. Inning so that's
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: one of those games that makes you feel really. SMART
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: i WISH i gave it out as a Play pittsburgh
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: first five, because, unbelievably that was a, win but it
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: would be more unbelievable schemes got that jacked up in that.
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: Game he did. Not he actually had a good. Outening
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: The pittsburgh bullpen was, terrible so that's what. Happened pittsburgh's
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: lost four in a. Row but they've been To atlanta
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: and The dodgers, here but they're continuing The dodgers series
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: here two of the best teams in. Baseball dodgers used
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: three relief pitchers. Yesterday pittsburgh also. Did pittsburgh is the lesser.
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: Bullpen The dodgers are still ranked number, two even though
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: they're E ray is a bit worse than, that but
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: they're still pretty. Good pittsburgh not so, good especially after.
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: Yesterday they're number, twenty so pretty big bullpen advantage for The.
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: Dodgers dodgers are number one in offense and it's not
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: really that. Close pittsburgh is number. Six pittsburgh is pretty
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: good offensively at, home but they're gonna have to deal
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: with Show Hey otani in this, game So pittsburgh may
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: not put up offense in this. One otani's got a
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: point seven to For era point seventy nine whip. Diculous
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: home road splits are insignificant BECAUSE i, mean how much
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: lower could your ra? Get, Really he's been. Good he's
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: allowed no more than two runs than any outing and
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: that was only once on the road At. Houston Although
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: pittsburgh is a good, offense they do a lot of
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: damage at. Home otani has a ridiculously low hit. Rate
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: he's allowing fewer than one to hit every two. Winnings
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: he's got a pretty low walk rate, too in a
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: high strikeout. Rate all of his numbers are, good and
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: his ground ball rate is higher than his fly ball.
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: Rate two pretty elite numbers, here and his numbers are
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: good against The pirates as. Well they have nineteen at
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: bats against. Him they do have two home runs against,
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: him which are Both Henry. Davis davis is three for
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: three with two home runs off, him and other than,
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: that the Entire pirates line up only has one other
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: hit against, him a single By. Triolo very, interesting but
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: overall they have a two to eleven average against him
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: seven to seventy six ops only Because david for some
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: reason has been able to hit. Him eight strikeouts one,
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: Walk so, overall, YEAH i Think otani should do well. Here,
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: obviously he is going to be opposed By Jared, jones
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: who is a pitcher THAT i. LIKE i liked him
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: two years ago coming back from. Injury he struggled a
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: little bit so far this. Year he's got a four
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: point eight TWO, era but a one point six to
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: one whip is definitely. Ugly he's been bad at home
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: ten point three to eight, homyra but that was one.
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: Start he's made two, starts and that was his first
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: start of the. Season we took a loss on an
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: under in that, one a first five. Under he did
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: not do, well but his strikeout walk ratio is still
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: okay in that, game and then he followed it up
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: with a better performance Against, houston where he went five
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: innings and didn't allow a. Run and he's been fairly
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: efficient with his pitches for the most. Part so he's pitching.
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: BETTER i think they're gonna start ramping him up a little.
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: Bit there's improvement from one start to the, next which is.
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: GOOD i think maybe he was just shaky in his first,
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: game just because it was his first game in over
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: a season that he was pitching in the. MAJORS i
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: think he's a decent. PITCHER i think he's better than his.
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: Numbers look, here and if you look at his twenty
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: twenty four, numbers or he pitched like the entire, season
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: his numbers were pretty. Solid i'm not saying he's like
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: the greatest, pitcher BUT i think he's pretty. Good that,
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: YEAR i was definitely giving out some plays on him
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: because he was unfamiliar to, everybody and The dodgers are
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: pretty unfamiliar with. Him they have six hitters who have
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: faced him fifteen at, bats two hundred, average five to
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: eighty three, ohps four to one strike out walk, Ratio
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: So jones has pitched pretty well, THERE i think this
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: is an under first five. UNDER i GUESS i would
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: say BECAUSE i would not Want pittsburgh's bullpen. Here BUT
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: i think a first five under is the way to
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: play this. GAME i know It's, otani SO i don't
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: know how much value that really isn't playing that And
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: jones does worry me a little. Bit but if you
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: want to try to play The, dodgers they're like minus two,
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: hundred so it seems like there's not really much of
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: a way to play then, there and the money's coming
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: in On. Pittsburgh pittsburgh might be a little bit embarrassed
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: after yesterday and in bounce back mode, here especially because
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: we've lost four in a. Row, Uh dodgers ninety one
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: percent of the tickets on. Them, otani you know he's
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: gonna be overpriced in the market, man and people don't
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: really know Who jones. Is fifty eight percent of the
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: cash On pittsburgh, though but also the total is not that.
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: High it is eight and a. Half it has gone
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: up a little, Bit but, YEAH i think first five
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: under is the way to play that. Game we do
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: have sixty seven percent of the tickets and eighty eight
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on the over, though but that's full.
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: Game but, yeah under verse five is the WAY i
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: would probably approach that. ONE i think both starting pitchers
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: may do well enough to get that done a game
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: WHERE i probably would not want an Under minnesota And.
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: DETROIT i liked it yesterday well. ENOUGH a lot of
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: guys have got On bay. Scored, man it was it
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: was the wrong, call for, sure but we also got
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: a little bit, unlucky and it was not quite as
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: bad as it really. Looked Now detroit won ten to.
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: Four they won the first game of the. Series they've
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: actually won six of their last, seven So detroit is
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: actually starting to win. Again. INTERESTING i, mean they're not
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: that bad of a, team but they were playing really
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: bad when schoolball went. Down but we are talking about
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: A detroit. Team it's been the best team in this
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: division the last couple of. YEARS i Know cleveland won
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: the division last, year But detroit was better than, them
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: even THOUGH i Think cleveland advanced further in the. Playoffs but.
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: Whatever detroit used five relief pitchers, yesterday AND i don't
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: like either of these. Bullpens minnesota used. FOUR i would
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: avoid these. Bullpens minnesota's ranked twenty. Eighth they're. Bad they
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: have the third worst bullpen in ray as. WELL i
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: think Wherever detroit, Is detroit's not that much. Better they're
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: at twenty, second although their eray is actually not that,
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: bad in, fact it's actually better Than. Arizona's but their
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: whip is not that. Good SO i don't love these bullpens,
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: here and with the lack of rest WOULD i THINK
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: i would avoid the. Bullpens the Hitting minnesota is number,
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: Seventeen detroit's number, nineteen so the hitting has been pretty mediocre.
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: Here minnesota looks like they're going with a bullpen. Game
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: Mike parades is listed as the starter. Here he's gonna
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: be an. Opener, basically he's gone three and two thirds
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: innings in each of his outings so far this, year
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: and he's got a four to four strike out walk,
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: ratio which is not. Good only four hits allout in
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: seven and a third innings, though but also four, runs
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: four point nine ONE, era one point zero nine. Whip
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: BUT i don't trust. Him that strike out walk ratio
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: doesn't look. Good detroit's never seen him, before but he's
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: only gonna be in there for probably about three you,
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: know between three and four innings again here and then
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be the bullpen For. MINNESOTA i do not
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: like That detroit is going with from Ber. Valdez he's
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: not having a great, season but his numbers are. Okay
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: four point two to ONE, era one point three to.
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: Two whip is a little bit high because he can't
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: stop walking. People he's been a little bit worse at
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: home four point five. Home ram pitched pretty well in
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: his last outing, though really his last three outings have
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: all been pretty. Decent even though he gave up four
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: runs against The White, sox his like, strikeout walk ratio
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: numbers really weren't that bad in those, games so he
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: is pitching a little bit. Better, Recently detroit finally won
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: a game behind. Him his overall numbers aren't great though
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: his hit rate is. Fine his walk rate is too,
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: high LIKE i, said and his strikeout rate is actually
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: low like for, HIM i think that's a pretty low strikeout.
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: Rate he usually has a higher strikeout rate than. That
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: numbers Against minnesota are okay and fifty seven at bats
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: to sixty three average six eighty four ops pretty. Low.
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: Ops they haven't really hit him from power seventeen strikeout Six,
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: Walks SO i Think valdez might actually be able to
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: do okay, here but you're paying a. PRICE i Think
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: detroit does have the advantage here probably across the, board
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: like they do have the better bullpen and the better starter,
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: here but you're paying minus one seventy something for The detroit.
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: HERE i don't THINK i could get there with that.
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: Man detroit eighty four percent of, tickets seventy five percent
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: of the cash on, Them so the money is Fading
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: detroit in that, one which is interesting because why would
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: you want to be on A minnesota bullpen? Game? DUDE
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: i would not want to be on, that you. KNOW i,
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: MEAN i think there are more indicators for an over
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: than an under here as. Well the totals at nine
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: money seems to be on the over eighty three percent of,
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: tickets ninety three percent of the cash on the. OVER
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: i wouldn't disagree with an over in that. ONE i
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: THINK i probably prefer The detroit, side but the money
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: isn't agreeing with, it and LIKE i, said you have
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: to lay probably too much of a price for. It
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: you're looking at splitting the bet run, line money line or.
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: Whatever philadelphia At. TORONTO i believe this is the end
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: of this. Series these seems to split the first two,
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: games SO i expect motivation from both sides. Here toronto
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: does play The yankees, next, though SO i guess possible
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: look ahead there more so than Whoever phillies playing, NEXT
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: i forget who it. Is toronto used three relief pitchers.
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: Yesterday philadelphia used three as. Well these are both mediocre,
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: Bullpens philadelphia at, Thirteenth toronto, tenth but their eras are
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: in the high. Threes, STILL i don't know if there
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: are bullpens that you necessarily have to avoid depending on
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: what you're gonna do with the game of The hitting
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: on both sides hasn't really been good twenty third For
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: toronto and twenty eighth For, philly even Though philly does
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: usually hit okay at home, though but this is on
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: the road At. Toronto although the fact this is on
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: the road should Help Jesus lozardo for The. Phillies, lozardo
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: he's been all over the place this. Season four point
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: five SIX, era one point three to three. Whip those
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: are not good. Numbers like keep, SAYING i think he's
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: better than his numbers, suggests because a lot of guys
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: that have reached base have scored off of. Him he's
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: also been way better on the. ROAD i don't know
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: what it, is but he's been awful at. Home his
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: era is almost six runs better on the, road at
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: one point five to. Four so he's been way better
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: on the. Road no. Clue why wasn't that good in
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: his last outing at home against The White. Sox but,
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: again he sucks at home for whatever. Reason pitch well
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: in a few starts prior to that that we're mostly
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: on the. Road, overall he's got a good strikeout, rate
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: his hit rate is a little bit too, high and
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: his walk rate is not really that. Bad, so LIKE i, said,
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: overall his numbers kind of suggest, that like if you
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: look at, these you, know the, numbers like his actual
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: pitching numbers, here they suggest that he's better than what his,
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: overall you, know just surface numbers would tell. You lozardo
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: is not that good Against toronto though they only have
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: five hitters who have faced. Him some of their better
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: hitters have faced, him but in twenty three at, bats
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: and this is With guerrero doing nothing against, him they
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: have a three forty eight average against. Him nine to
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: fifty seven ops five zero strikeout walk. Ratio so this
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: might not be the best matchup For, lozardo but he
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: is better on the road and he's going up Against Max,
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: schurzer who this guy might be, done, Dude like he's
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: been awful so far this. SEASON i think his career is.
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: Over like just pack it, in, Bro, like just you,
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: know pack it. In you'll be in The hall Of.
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: Fame you've had a really good. Career, uh this guy
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: just doesn't have. It, Man there's no WAY i could
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: back him. Here he's got a nine point six y
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: four E ra one point six to one. WHIP i
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: guess the one thing you could say is he's a
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: veteran coming back from, injury and a lot of times
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: a veteran coming back from injury will be pumped up
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: and pitched. Well the team, will you, know rally around
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: him and. WHATEVER i don't know if that's gonna be enough,
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: though because he's he really hasn't had it and he's
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: been really bad at home so. Far twelve point seventy
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: nine home E Ra toronto lost all of his starts
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: In may and then he went on the D l
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: after he had two really bad starts in his last.
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: Three his strikeout rate was way, down his hit rate
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: was too. High is walk rate not great and strikeout
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: rate way? Down so, yeah this he looks like he
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: just doesn't have it. Anymore. MAN i, MEAN i guess we'll,
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: see because he was okay last, year but he seemed
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: to lose it at the end of the season last
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: year and into the. Playoffs sures are as good overall
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: numbers Against, philly but obviously you gotta remember that most
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: of these numbers were accumulated back when he was a
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: better pitcher than he is. Now one hundred and eighty
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: two at bats against, them seventy one to sixteen strike
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: out walk, race you're two point nine, average six point
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: twenty four. Ohps so, yes he's pitched well Against, Philly
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: BUT i don't know if those past numbers are gonna
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: be enough. Year, Man philly is favored in this. Game
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: when would you ever expect that to be the? Case,
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: Man Max schurs are being a huge underdog at, home
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: but that is the. Case philly looks like they're getting
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: the money. Too they're around minus one forty seventy nine
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: percent of the, tickets eighty six percent of the cash
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: on At. Philly that's what's going on, here Or, MAN
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: i probably agree with. IT i, Mean lozardo is good
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: on the, road BUT i don't like his matchup. Numbers,
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: man the matchup numbers actually suggest the. Opposite but you,
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: know LIKE i, SAID i don't think you can put
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: much weight into Shres ers past numbers because that's not
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: who he is. Now the money's also coming in on
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: the under in this game an eight and a. HALF
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: i would not want to do. That you got lozarda
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: with bad matchup numbers And Shres there is a complete mystery,
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: here so there's no WAY i would do. That but that,
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: game that's a high variance, game, DUDE i think it's
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: really difficult to figure that game. Out Saint louis at The.
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: Mets The mets return home from a road trip from
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: The Pacific coast. Yesterday SO i told you that was
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: a bad, spot and it showed The mets were awful
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: in that game. Yesterday they lost seven and. Nothing Dustin,
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: MAY i guess pitch well in the. GAME i THINK
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: i leaned To Saint, louis BUT i didn't Love may Versus.
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: Peralta but, yeah that turn home spot is.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: Bad.
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: Dude but now that The mets got that spot out
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: of the, way they return. Home they had a bad,
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: game they got shut out at. Home now this is
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: like a positive spot in The mets. AROUND a lot
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: of times those teams will bounce back in that next.
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: Game the problem is The mets are going with a
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: bullpend game, here SO i don't THINK i want to
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: back This mets. Team. Man, now The mets bullpen is fairly.
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: Rested they Had monday off and then they only use
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: two guys, yesterday so they do set up okay for
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: going with a bullpen game, here so at least there is,
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: that and their bullpen is fairly. Good Saint louis is
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: equally rested though in their, bullpen and they only us
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: two guys, yesterday And Saint louis is going with an
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: actual starter. Here The mets have a good bullpen their
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: number five and their era is. Good Saint louis is
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: okay at. Nineteen their bullpen's not. Horrible both bullpens look
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: like they set up okay. Here mets have a bad
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: offense number twenty, Nine Saint louis number. Sixteen Saint louis
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: does have the better Offense Saint louis is going With Andre,
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: payante who's got a GOOD era three point nine to.
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: Six his whip is not that good one point. Three
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: he's been good on the road, though two point six
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: to seven road ra which doesn't make a ton of
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: sense because they Think Saint louis is pretty pitch up,
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: friendly but, whatever he's been better on the, road so
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: that looks good for. Him here he was, okay and
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: most of his recent starts he's pitched, alright including his
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: most recent, one but it was Against, texas not a
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: very good, offense but it was not At. Texas his
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: hit rate is decent on the, season lower than one per.
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: Inning strike out rate is, low, though and his walk
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: rates a little bit, high so strike out walk ratio
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: is pretty bad from, him but he doesn't strike guys.
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: Out he's kind of a junk. Pitcher numbers against The
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: mets are very mediocre and fifty four at bets two
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: seventy eight average is not. Great seven to twenty eight
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: ohps is below that seven point fifty, threshold but not by.
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: Much strikeouts five, walks SO i don't really want to
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: Trust payante, here BUT i can't trust A mets bullpen.
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: Game Man Austin warren looks like he's gonna be the
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: opener for The mets. Here he's got good numbers two point,
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: one one point one two, whin but he's probably only
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: gonna go one to two innings. Here then they're gonna
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: turn it over to the. Bullpen AND i honestly have
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: no idea who's coming in after. That he pitched four days,
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: ago and if we look at who came in after,
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: that it was actually he came in in relief Of
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: nolan McLain in that, game so he wasn't even an
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: opener in that. One he might have been an opener
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: on the. First SO i don't know what they did
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: in this. Game they Use, manaia but they're not gonna
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: Use manaia. HERE i don't think we Use. Manaia pitched
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: like two or three days, Ago SO i honestly have
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: no idea what The mets are. Doing it looks like
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: they're probably going bullpen game for the full game. HERE
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: i don't like. IT i can't deal with with a
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: game like. THAT i, mean if you want to lead
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: to The, mets their bullpen is at least pretty good
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: and rested. Here the money's all coming in On Saint louis,
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: though fifty two percent of tickets on The, mets eighty
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: five percent of the cash On Saint. Louis the money
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: is coming in On Saint, LOUIS i don't know about.
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: That the money's coming in on the over as. Well
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: totals at eight and a. HALF i don't know about
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: the over, either. MAN i, mean these are these offenses
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: are not that, prolific especially The Metsu payonte might do okay.
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: HERE i THINK i kind of Lean mets. Though IF
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: i was gonna play this. Game you're laying minus one
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: thirty for A mets bullpend game, though which is insane to.
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: Me then The mets would be favored like that with
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: a pitching matchup like. That but, Yeah payonte not getting
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: a lot of. RESPECT i guess the odds makers are
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: telling you something, though, Right like The mets have the
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: worst record, Here why would The mets be a favorite
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: with a bullpen game against a team that has a
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: better record than?
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: Them?
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: RIGHT a picture with A dcra. Two, yeah that's because
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: the odds makers are actually telling you they think The
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: mets are better than their record makes them. Look And
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: Saint louis is worse than their record makes some, look
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: and The mets are at least in that bounce back
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: spot after the return home game yesterday where they got
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: shut out and they were. Awful SO i THINK i
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: would actually just Lean mets in this game money, line
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: but there's no WAY i want to do, that all, Right,
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: OH i. Apologize somebody should have told MEN i don't
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: have my screen. Share holy, shit, MAN i. APOLOGIZE i
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: haven't been sharing my screen this whole. Time. Fuck all,
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: Right i'm gonna be right. Back the fuck somebody should
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: have told. ME i. Apologize i'm out of. It, Man
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: i'm on night quill and. STUFF i don't. Know i'll
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: be right back and Then i'll finish this, off all.
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: Right next game up Is atlanta and The White. Sox
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: The White, sox as as we, discussed won the game
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: on a walk off yesterday in extra. Innings this is
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: a good pitching, matchup so right AWAY i looked at
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: this AND i was, thinking under in some capacity makes
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: sense in this. Game The White sox used five relief pitchers.
• 57:14
  Speaker 3: Yesterday they do not have a good. Bullpen atlanta has
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: the better. Bullpen they used four relief. Pitchers. Yesterday it
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: looks Like atlanta's got a bullpen. Edge their number one
• 57:26
  Speaker 3: In whip and IN Ra White sox are number, seventeen
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: So atlanta's got the bullpen edge. Here atlanta's number three in,
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: Offense White sox, four so two teams that do damage.
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: Offensively atlanta does do damage on the. Road but this
• 57:41
  Speaker 3: is a good pitching. Matchup, MAN i think i'd avoid
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: the bullpens, here BUT i like both pitchers. Here Chris
• 57:47
  Speaker 3: sale is pitching for The. Braves he's been really good,
• 57:49
  Speaker 3: obviously two point two to THREE, era one point zero THREE,
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: whip three point one six ROAD era, though so he
• 57:56
  Speaker 3: is a little bit worse on the, road but still pretty.
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: Good wasn't really good in his Out he got knocked
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: around for ten hits By toronto in five and two,
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: thirds but he still held them with three earned, runs
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: had six, strikeouts two, walks so he still wasn't even
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: really that. Bad he's only allowed them within two hour
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: in runs twice all, season and that was one of.
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: Them he's got a high strikeout, rate low hit, rate
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: pretty low walk rate. Too all of his numbers are
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: good across the. BOARD i don't really think he's out
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: of form right, now and The White socks basically haven't
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: seen him. Before Greed shock has seen him a, bunch
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: but they only have two hitters of seeing Him Greed
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: schock And. Romo they got thirty at bats against, him
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: a two hundred, average seven h six oh, ps nine
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: to three strikeout walk. Ratio SO i Think sale will
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: do well. HERE i know there's a lot of game
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: film on him and whatever because he's been around, forever
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: but The White socks have not really faced him in
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: a real game, environment so it looks like it sets
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: up for him to pitch well. Here Davis martin has
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: pitching for The White. Sox he's been probably the best
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: surprise on The White sox this. Year he's been really.
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: Good two point six p' one, era one point one
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: to one. Whip he's been really good at home one
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: point two to one homy. Ra that's really. Good he
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: got knocked around in his last, outing though that was
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: a bad. Outing he gave up ten hits and four
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: and two thirds At, minnesota six earned. RUNS i think
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: we might have had an under in some capacity in that.
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: Game two. Horrible it just so. Happens it's the game
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: where the one game where he does. Bad he had three,
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: walks two. Strikeouts but the question is is he falling
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: out a form or is that more of an. OUTLIER
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: i don't, know, man it's hard to say because he's twenty,
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: nine so usually a guy that's twenty nine doesn't all
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: of a sudden start pitching it like almost an elite.
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: Level BUT i don't. Know maybe he's figured something. OUT
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: i have no. Idea he could be trending in the
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: wrong direction, year or that could be an outlier and
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: he might bounce. Back AND i don't know which it's
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: gonna be. Here he's facing a good offense, here SO
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: i don't. Know he's got good numbers on the, season
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: the low hit, rate high strikeout, rate walk right as
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: well numbers Against. Atlanta they only have three hitters of
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: base and they do have a four to twenty nine
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: average fifteen to fifty SIX, ops one, strikeout two, Walks
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: but it's such a small sample. SIZE i don't know
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: what to really take away from. That and that was
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: not this. Season that was in the, past and he's
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: pitching better this. SEASON i think it's enough to keep
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: me off of the. Game BUT i think an under
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: first five is what makes the most sense in this.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: One money's coming in on the, over, though fifty three
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: percent of tickets on the, under eighty five percent of
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: the cash on the. Over it makes no sense to.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: Me the totals at seven seven and a, half so
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: the oddsmakers are telling you this should be a pitching battle,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: Here SO i don't know about that percentage. There, also
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: ninety four percent of the tickets eighty seven percent of
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: the cash On. Atlanta they're about a minus one fifty
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 3: something favorite. Here you know you're paying a premium For
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: Chris sale though and For, atlanta SO i would not
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: go that way with. It it's possible That martin is
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: able to duel, here ALTHOUGH i think if you go
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 3: the if you go with The White, SOX i think
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: you have to make it a first five play and
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: just avoid the bullpen because they definitely have a bullpend disadvantage.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: Here BUT i think first five unders what makes the most.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: Sense but you're gonna be looking at three and a half,
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: there and that gets a little bit. Dicey so if
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: there's like any question with it at, ALL i kind
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: of don't want to do, It So i'm staying off
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: of that. Game Too texas At Kansas. City Kansas city
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: has won three in a, Row zach wherever you. ARE
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: i think when five of their last six they Beat
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 3: Texas yesterday could be a bounce back For texas. HERE
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: i Think texas is probably the better. Team Kansas city
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: not very. Good they used four relief pitchers, Yesterday texas used.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: Three both bullpen's rested the day before. That texas is
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: number six in bullpen and they have one of the
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: best bullpen in the R. Rays they're obviously the better.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: Bullpen Kansas city is number twenty, nine so big bullpen
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: edge For texas. Here neither offense is that. Good texas
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: is twenty, Fourth Kansas city twenty. Fifth but we have
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: a high total in this. One The odsburgers keep putting
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: these high totals in These Kansas city. Games yesterday's did
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 3: not go. Over it was a five to three final.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: YESTERDAY i didn't think that the walls being moved in
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: would all of a sudden make this a hitter friendly
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: ballpark because it was so pitcher friendly. BEFORE i don't.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: Know Man Mackenzie gore is going for The rangers. Here
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 3: he's had a mediocre. Season four point two to three
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: ra one point two Nine. Whip he's been way worse
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: on the road, though six point zero Six Roady. Ira
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: so you take him away from, home things don't go
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: well for. Him rangers have a very pitcher friendly. Ballpark
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: he was bad on the road last time out Against
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: saint louis not a good sign because that's a pitcher friendly.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: Ballpark he pitched well Against Kansas city the outing before
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: that shut them out for six and a, third but
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 3: that was In, Texas so Now Kansas city just saw
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 3: him and they might be able to make adjustments. HERE
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 3: i don't, know, man it seems like it might be
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 3: a bad thing that he's like a fly ball. Pitcher
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: he is a pretty extreme flyball. Pitcher he's going on
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: the road. Now he's got a good strikeout, rate good
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: hit rate, too but his walk rate is way too.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: High he doesn't actually allow a lot of home runs,
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: though so there is, that but he does walk too many.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: Guys but maybe not a good sign that he's not
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: pitching well on the, road and this appears to be
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: more of a hitter friendly ballpark. Now his numbers overall
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 3: against The royals are, good though not just that start,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: recently but overall fifty at bats two hundred average allowed
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: five eleven ops thirteen to two strikeout walk. Ratio So
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 3: gore overall has been good Against Kansas. City so he
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: might still have a decent matchup. HERE i don't THINK
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 3: i want to bank on it with how bad he
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 3: is on the, road Though Seth lugo is pitching For Kansas.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 3: City he's been okay three point nine to. One one
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 3: point three to six whip indicates that his THE ra
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: should be, higher though not a great. Whip he's been
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: a little bit worse at home four point one evan
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: HOMEY ra wasn't great in his last outing on the
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: road At, minnesota but he got a little bit, unlucky
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: allowing three home runs. There he's been okay for most
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: of the. Season he's allowed more than three earned RUNS
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: i think only, twice no three times on the. Season
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: his strikeout rates not that. High this is not really
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 3: what he. Does his hit rates a little bit, high
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 3: and his walk rate is kind of. High so some
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 3: of those numbers not. Great numbers Against texas are good.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: Though in eighty five at, bats one forty one average
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: allowed four forty eight oh ps twenty five to five
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio And lugo did just Face texas In,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: texas and he pitched well in that, game six, innings
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: one earned, run allowed six, strikeouts no, walks and they
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: somehow still lost that game and gave up seven runs
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: even though he only gave up. One their bullpen is.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: Awful oh, no he gave up, three but two of
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: them are unearned my, mistake but he pitched pretty. Well
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 3: give up one earned run. There you, KNOW i Think
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: lugo sets up a little bit better in this, one
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 3: and he is the underdog. HERE i would not want
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 3: to Go Kansas city full, game, THOUGH i mean Maybe
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: Kansas city first five makes some sense here Because gore
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: is just not good on the. Road uh seventy percent of,
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: tickets seventy eight percent of the cash On texas Though
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: texas is around minus one fifteen. Here BUT i would
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: say is if you Go Kansas, CITY i think you
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: need to go first five so you avoid their. Bullpen
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: if you Go, texas go full game so you have
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 3: the bullpen advantage. There money's also strongly indicating on the
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: over and the total is, ten which is pretty. RIDICULOUS
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: i don't know about. That if you go over go
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 3: full game with, it, though because you'll Get Kansas city's
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: awful bullpen into the. Mix BUT i don't know if
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: there are enough components for this thing to be an
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: over ten. THOUGH i STILL i kind of still question
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: whether or Not Kaufman stadium is that hitter friendly now
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: just because they move the walls in a couple of.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: FEET i don't. KNOW i, Mean i'll have to go
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: back and actually look at what the numbers. Say but
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: the oddsmakers know what they're doing, though SO i don't
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: know that's a pass. Though speaking of a hitter friendly,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 3: ballparks these next two GAMES O God cubs At. Colorado
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: colorado won the game yesterday seven to. Three could be
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: a bounce back spot here for The, cubs who are
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 3: the better team. Here cubs used three relief pitchers, Yesterday
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 3: colorado used. Four cubs have the better, bullpen they're number.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 3: Seven The rockies have the worst BULLPEN era in the
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: rank twenty, six Then, whip they're one of the worst.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: Bullpens The cubs have the better offense as. Well they're number,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: ten tied in tenth right now with the Stupid giants
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: who are not actually that, good And colorado. Fifteenth colorado
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: can hit a little bit at least especially at. HOME
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: i think they've started to hit a little bit. Better
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: But colorado's gonna go up against show TO I Mi,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: naga who's clearly the better of these two pitchers, here
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 3: but there are some negatives here him And naga's got
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: a bad era. Here four point seventy four E. R
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 3: i don't know what's going on with, him because he's
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 3: been really good the last couple of, seasons but this
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 3: year bad. Era but his whip is still pretty good
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 3: one point, eight so his whip indicates his era should
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 3: not be that. Bad he's actually been a little bit
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 3: better on the road four point eight road Y. R
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 3: BUT i think we gotta worry about him pitching a course.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 3: FIELD i, looked AND i don't think he's pitching course
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: field yet in his, career and he just gave. Up
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 3: look at all the home runs he's been giving up, recently.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 3: Dude he's given up three plus home runs in each
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: of his last three. Outings that's. Ridiculous he's given up
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 3: twelve home runs in his last four. Starts. Insane that's
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: that does not bode well when you're about to pitch
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 3: a course. Field he's a lot seventeen home runs on the,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: season all of a, sudden even though he wasn't allowing
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 3: many home runs at, all of a, sudden he's allowing bombs.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: EVERYWHERE i don't know what the deal. Is he's still
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 3: got a good hit, rate he's still got a pretty
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: good walk, rate and his strike out rate is, okay
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 3: so he's not pitching that. Bad like HIS era should
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: be better than. This you could argue he's getting unlucky
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 3: because it's just the long. Ball he's allowing too many fly.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 3: Balls but that's what you don't want when you're about
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: to pitch in course. Field colorado has fourteen at bats
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: against him across three of their, hitters and they have
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 3: not done anything against, him zero for fourteen with two
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: strikeouts and no. Walks nobody has reached base off of,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: Them so that's what you got. THERE I monaga does
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: have good matchup numbers Against, colorado BUT i don't think
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: he's pitched in course field. Before Michael lorenzen is pitching
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 3: for The. Rockies he's been pretty awful eight point oh
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: ONE era one point nine to, nine whip awful at
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 3: coursefield nine point sixty seven homey. RA i don't know
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 3: Why colorado even wanted this. Guy he got lit up
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: in his last outing on the road against Uh. Anaheim
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 3: he's been quite awful uh for most of the. Season
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 3: really had a decent stretch In may kind, of but
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 3: other than, that he's been. Bad pretty low strikeout, rate
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 3: his walk rates not. Good he's a lot of decent
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 3: amount of home. Runs his hit rate is. Ridiculous he
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 3: might have allowed the most hits per inning in all
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 3: Of Major League baseball for guys that have enough, starts
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 3: are enough innings to qualify really really. Bad numbers against
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 3: The cubs are not great. Either they only have six
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: hitters who have faced, him but thirty seven at, bats
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 3: nine to, six strikeout walk ratio to seventy average eight
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 3: ninety one. Ohps those are not good. Numbers SO i
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 3: think this game might be an. Over there are definitely
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 3: some concerns with The monaga, here And lorenzo might get
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 3: jacked up. HERE i, mean you could just go With,
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 3: colorado go With, CUBS i mean over their team. Total you,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: know The cubs to bounce back after yesterday to just
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 3: light Up lorenzen In colorado's, bullpen which they certainly have
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 3: the ability to. Do but the total is so high at,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 3: twelve you might need The cubs to score seven runs
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: if you do. That SO i think maybe just going
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 3: over full game over the twelve makes more sense here
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 3: BECAUSE I monaga might give up some home runs here and.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 3: Whatever seventy one percent of the tickets are on the,
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: under which is. Ridiculous ninety one percent of the cash
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 3: on the, over so the money's indicating on the. Over
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 3: that's probably the WAY i would go is over eighty
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 3: four percent of, tickets ninety four percent of the cash
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 3: on The, cubs so the money is coming in towards The.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 3: Cubs they're a big, favorite though minus one seventy. Something
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 3: odds makers still disrespect In, colorado but maybe rightfully, so
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 3: AND i guess Respecting imanaga still he is better than
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 3: his ra. SUGGESTS i will say, that but this might
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 3: not be the best environment for. Him SO i think
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 3: over Or cubs over their team, total something like that
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: makes the most sense in that Game milwaukee at The
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 3: a's another game in Uh vegas. Here the game yesterday
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 3: actually snuck in under the. Total it hit, twelve and
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 3: that's total was. Thirteen after a twenty nine run game
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 3: the game before. That these seems to split the series so.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 3: Far this is in This vegas, stadium which is AT
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: i don't, know three thousand something feet, elevation which is
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: not as high As Course, Field it's about half, that
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 3: but still, whatever whatever, reason this is a very hit
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: or friendly. BALLPARK i think it's elevation combined with it
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: being like A TRIPLE a stadium or, whatever so the
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: walls are probably kind of. Short, whatever it, is a
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 3: lot of runs get scored in the. Stadium it's. Ridiculous
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 3: The as used two relief pitchers. Yesterday milwaukee has the better.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: Bullpen they only used one guy out of the bullpen.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: Yesterday milwaukee good. Bullpen they're number, eleven they have a
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 3: one of the better ERAS a is not really that.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: Good twenty first not a good. Bullpen milwaukee has the better.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 3: Bullpen milwaukee has started to hit pretty. Well they're ninth
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 3: now in offense and The a's are. Sixth so these
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 3: teams could definitely hit and these, pitchers you, know might
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: give up something. Here Brandon sprote is pitching for The.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 3: Brewers he's got bad, numbers six point one seventy one
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 3: point five to six. Whip he's still, young AND i
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 3: think he's got more talent than. This he's got to
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: get his walk issue. Fixed he doesn't have significant home road.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: Splits he was okay ish in his last, game which
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 3: was At Course, field held The rockies to three or
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: runs two strikeouts though in two, Walks but he wasn't
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: too bad in that, game which might be a precursor to.
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 3: This so at least he's pitched in a high elevation
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: environment before and he did, okay so at least there
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 3: is that he's allowed more than one hit per inning
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 3: those his walk rate is way too. High he is
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: a bit more fly ball, oriented which isn't that. Great
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: he's allowed a decent amount of home runs here, too
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: not great for an environment like. This he only allowed
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 3: one in That Course field outing, though and his strike
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 3: got is right around one per, inning so that's, fine
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 3: but his walk rate is definitely the biggest. Concern The
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: a's basically haven't faced him though him is the only
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 3: hitter who's faced. Him he's one for two with a,
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 3: double no, strikeouts no, walks So, sproute you, know he
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 3: at least has unfamiliarity here that might help him a little.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 3: Bit Jack perkins is pitching for The. A's he hasn't been.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: Good he's a young. Guy they've brought him out of
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 3: the bullpen to be a, starter sort of kind of an.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: Opener he hasn't been very. Good six point one ninety
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 3: ra really, bad although his whip is better than that
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 3: one point two. Eight that's not that. Bad his home
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 3: road split some pretty, insignificant SO i don't think that really.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 3: Matters he made a start last time out At. Houston
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 3: it didn't really go that, well give up five and
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: runs and four. Innings did have six strikeouts and two walks,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: though but he gave up a home run five. Hits
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: his fly ball rate is he's a little bit more flyball,
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 3: oriented but it's not that. Bad he's got a high
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 3: stroke rate this, season low walk. Rate his hit rate
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 3: is right around one per inning, Though SO i don't. Know.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 3: Perkins he's been. Okay he's better than his era would,
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: suggest at, least And milwaukee's never faced him, before so
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: he at least has that. Advantage so we at least
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: do have an unfamiliarity edge from both starters. Here the
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 3: total in this game is fourteen and a, half which
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 3: is absurd to. Me you, KNOW i think the oddsmakers
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: might have overcorrected here after that twenty nine run game
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 3: in the first. Game yesterday's game hit, twelve which is more.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 3: REASONABLE i, know neither of these pictures are getting that
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 3: much respect. Here fifty nine percent of tickets and cash
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 3: on the. UNDER i might lean under in the first
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 3: five innings. HERE i, mean you're probably looking at like
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 3: a seven seven and a half in the first. FIVE i,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 3: mean that sounds, insane BUT i think that might be
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 3: the number that you're looking at. There that just seems crazy.
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 3: HIGH i understand the, environment the pitchers that are, involved,
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 3: dear but when you got pictures that are probably a
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 3: little bit better than their numbers would, suggest and they're
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 3: unfamiliar to the opposing, hitters and under in the first
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: five maybe has some value. THERE i still don't want
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 3: to do. IT i don't want to risk. It seven
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 3: to nine percent of, tickets eighty one percent of the
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 3: Cash On, milwaukee The a's have flipped to the, favorite
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 3: though The a's are small favorite in that. One at
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 3: the online. Shops at, least it looks like some of
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: The sharper, books like In vegas are leaning a little
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 3: bit more Towards, milwaukee, though so do with that info
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 3: what you. WANT i don't have a good feel for
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 3: the side. Though houston At. Anaheim anaheim won the game
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 3: ten to one yesterday after losing five to four of
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 3: the game before. That so these teams are in a divisional.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 3: Series this is the rubber match in the. Series i'm pretty,
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 3: sure so both teams probably show up. Here houston used
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 3: two relief pitchers, Yesterday anaheim used. Three houston's bullpen's been
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 3: a little bit better. Recently they're number twenty four, now
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 3: so they actually might be better Than, anaheim who's twenty.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 3: Seventh Although houston's era is a little bit worse than,
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 3: theirs but Recently houston's been the better bullpen. RECENTLY i
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 3: still don't want to trust either bullpen. Though houston's number
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 3: eight in, Offense anaheim twenty, one So houston's been the better.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 3: OFFENSE i looked at these starters AND i was thinking
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 3: this could be like a first five under, Year but
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 3: the MORE i dug into, it the LESS i liked.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 3: It Peter lambert is pitching For. Houston he's actually been
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 3: decent this, year three point five to FIVE era one
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 3: point twenty six. Whip now that he's no longer In colorado's,
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 3: organization he's able to pitch a bit better. Here he's
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 3: been better on the road to two point nine to
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: three ROAD. Yra he has walked too many, guys though
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 3: his walk number has been an issue in his recent
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: outings and in prior, outings so he's got a high walk,
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: rate like basically won every two. Innings he's got to
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: fix that because his strikeout rate is fine and his
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: hit rate is pretty, good so the walks are an
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 3: issue with. Him he's got to figure that. Out but
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 3: the rest of his numbers are pretty. Solid numbers Against
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 3: anaheim are. Good only. THING i only have seven at
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 3: bats against. Him seven of their hitters have face, them
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 3: though they have a zero batting average against him in
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 3: one twenty five, ops two, strikeouts one. Walk Read dettmers
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 3: pitching For, anaheim So lambert does have good matchup numbers.
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 3: There Dettmar's he's a guy WHO i think is pretty,
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 3: good better than HIS ra looks four point twenty SIX,
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 3: era but a one point one four whip indicates HIS
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 3: ra probably should be better than. That he hasn't been
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 3: as good at home, though five point one to one HOME,
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 3: era so the home road splits Favorite lambert. Here detmars
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 3: did just pitch pretty well against The dodgers his last time.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 3: Out he shut them out for six, innings but they
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 3: got no run support behind him and they lost the game.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 3: Anyway but he pitched well. There that's a good sign
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 3: if he did that against a good offense like The.
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 3: Dodgers last time at, home he had a really good
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 3: outing Against, texas so that's a decent sign as. WELL
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 3: i Think denvers is overall pretty. Good he's pitching better right.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 3: Now he's got a high strikeout, rate low hit, rate
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 3: in his walk rates you, know a little bit, high
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 3: but overall he's got good, numbers. MAN i like What
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 3: i'm seeing out of all those numbers. There, however he
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: does not do well Against. Houston they got ninety four
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: at bats against, him so they've seen a lot of.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: Them two ninety eight, average EIGHT poh two, ops twenty
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 3: three to nine strike out walk, Ratio SO i don't like.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 3: THAT i Think detvers could pitch. Well he's in good form,
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: here BUT i Think houston makes the most sense here
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 3: and maybe even a full game because believe it or.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 3: NOT i Think houston might actually have a slightly better,
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 3: bullpen although their bullpend does, blow so maybe a first
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 3: five might make still more. Sense. Here the money is
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 3: coming in Towards Houston anaheim fifty three percent of the,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 3: tickets which makes no sense to, me sixty nine percent
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 3: of the cash On Houston anaheim's around minus one twenty
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 3: HERE i THINK i. AGREE i Like lambert's matchup numbers,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 3: here And Home road splits a bit, Better so, YEAH
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: i Think houston first five is probably the WAY i
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 3: would approach this game IF i was gonna do anything with.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 3: IT i could see an argument for a first five under,
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 3: though even though the total is, nine which is pretty
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 3: higher eight and a half or nine fairly high fifty
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 3: five percent of tickets on the, over eighty eight percent
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: of the cash on the, Over BUT i think first
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 3: five under makes some. Sense both starting PITCHERS i think
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: are actually pretty, decent BUT i don't Like detnver's matchup,
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 3: numbers SO i think the stronger way to play that
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 3: Is houston first. Five all, right and hopefully we get
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: the actual play, right which was the under first five
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 3: In yankees And, cleveland and the money seems like it
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 3: doesn't agree with, me so hopefully we get that. Right
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: we HAVE Wnba cup, action and Again i'm skipping THE.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 3: WNBA i just DON'T i don't have any angles here
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: THAT i can work. With. Man toronto's Hosting. Connecticut connecticut's
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 3: the worst team in the. League toronto's. WON i think
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 3: they're one and one in cup play so. Far connecticut
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 3: might be zero to, three So connecticut might have a
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 3: little bit more. MOTIVATION i guess to try to win
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 3: one game and cup play BECAUSE i think they're gonna
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 3: get eliminated AND i don't remember how The cup, works
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 3: but likely they're gonna be. Done toronto just had a
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 3: nice win over A, chicago WHICH i didn't really. Expect
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 3: they wanted a, blowout so it is possible they were
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 3: in a bit of a let down. Here they might
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 3: Overlook connecticut a little. Bit connecticut did just have a
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 3: tough game Against New, york, though but they did lose
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 3: To chicago the game before, That so people might look
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 3: at this and be, like, yeah Well toronto just blew Out,
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 3: chicago who Beat, Connecticut so Obviously toronto's gonna win this
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 3: game with, ease, Right like that transitive property, thing which
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: is not the right way to handicap because every game
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 3: is an individual. Situation you can't just, say teammate beat TEAM,
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 3: b you, know and TEAM b beat TEAM, c so
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 3: teammate therefore must beat TEAM. C that's not how it.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 3: Works But connecticut did just play fairly tough Against New.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 3: York they only lost my, nine and they were they
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 3: were they were kind of in that game late they
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 3: were down, six seven points pretty SO i don't want
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 3: either side in this. Game i'm skipping the. Game toronto's
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: about an eight point favorite. HERE i think there are
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 3: factors that indicate both ways in that, game so it's
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 3: really difficult to kind of figure it. Out maybe a
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 3: slight lean Towards connecticut plus the points where there's no
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 3: WAY i would want to do. That Plus, CONNECTICUT i
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 3: don't think they've played In toronto, yet And toronto as
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 3: an expansion, team it seems like they have a little
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 3: bit of an advantage when they're at home because teams
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: have to go through customs and that's not something THAT
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 3: wnba players are accustomed. To connecticut's been bad on the.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 3: Road they've been bad just in general, though but, yes
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 3: they're bad on the. Road toronto's above five hundred at,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 3: home but not by. Much but it seems like they
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 3: have a little bit of an advantage because teams are
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 3: unfamiliar with their venue and with. Customs then the other
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 3: game is ON, usa and it's another kind of mismatch
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 3: HERE la At. Seattle seattle's. Bad connecticut And seattle might
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 3: be the worst two teams in the. League seattle's lost
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 3: a bunch of games in a, row six in a.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 3: Row they've lost every game And cup play so. Far
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 3: maybe they'll be extra motivated because of, that but they're
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 3: gonna get eliminated from The. Cup however it. Works they're
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 3: returning home from the road. Here they were Away Saturday,
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 3: monday returning home from, that so return home spot not exactly,
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 3: Great but because they've lost so many games in a
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 3: row and it is A cup, game that might keep
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 3: them focused enough, Still and it wasn't that long of
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 3: a road. Trip it was only through the, weekend So
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 3: i'm not as concerned by. That they did lose that
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 3: To vegas in the last, game it wasn't that. Close
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 3: they lost by. Ten the game wasn't really close down
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 3: the stretch. THOUGH la definitely the better team here and
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 3: laying points on the road with a below five hundred
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 3: team looks kind of, ridiculous BUT la is definitely the better.
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 3: TEAM la just ended a losing string of the win Over.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 3: Portland now they're going out on the. Road that was
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 3: the First cup win that they, had so they might
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 3: be going out of the road with some new MOMENT
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 3: a lot of times you start a road trip focused
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 3: and with, momentum and ending that losing momentum should help.
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 3: THEM i think. SO i THINK la sets up a
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 3: little bit better in this. Game the money is kind of.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 3: Agreeing although they're public nine tickets ninety three percent of
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 3: the cash ON, la they're mostly around a minus seven.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 3: Year i'd probably lean towards laying, it But i'm not
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 3: gonna do anything with. It and then we have THE
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 3: nba where, dude fuck The knicks. Fans, dude The knicks
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 3: fans are out there rioting and they're beating up anybody
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 3: they see with A spurs. Jersey it's just Getting it's
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 3: LIKE blm riots out. There it's getting completely. Ridiculous this
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 3: fan base deserves. Nothing makes me want The spurs to
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 3: win even, more WHICH i don't think is gonna. Happen
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 3: but the one good thing For San. Antonio here is
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 3: the momentum angle. Here The knicks just lost a huge win. Street,
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 3: Dude when was the last time The knicks. Lost the
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 3: last TIME i lost was in The Atlanta, series which
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 3: was Before Mother's. Day it Was april twenty, Third, actually
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 3: it was the last time they lost a. Game so
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 3: when you haven't lost for that, long, dude they haven't
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: lost for like a month and a. Half and when
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 3: that's the case and you finally, lose you know WHAT
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 3: i talk. About it's a momentum. Stopper they'd won like
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 3: fourteen games in a row or, whatever which they almost
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 3: tied the, record WHICH i think Is Golden state fifteen
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 3: straight wins in THE i guess it was regular season
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 3: and then into the. PLAYOFFS i guess is what it
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 3: was when they won the. Championship whichever year that, WAS
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 3: i forget which. Year BUT i talk about this all the. Time,
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 3: Man when a team has a long win streak like
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 3: that and then it gets, snapped a lot of times
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 3: they're hungover in the next game because you don't know
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 3: how to respond to a loss, anymore you know WHAT i?
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 3: Mean and The knicks had their only losses in the
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 3: playoffs were two losses by one point To. Atlanta now
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 3: they lost only by, four but still they took a
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 3: loss at, home only their second home loss of the,
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 3: PLAYOFFS i, believe and not having lost Since, april that
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 3: could definitely hang them over into the next. Game, dude
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 3: and San antonio got some, confidence, right because if you
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 3: lost both games at, home you're like lacking all this,
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 3: confidence you know WHAT i, Mean like that could break
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 3: you break your. Confidence but then you go on the
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 3: road and you win a game that's gonna give you
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 3: a lot of. Confidence SO i think the momentum angle
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 3: supports San antonio in this. Game but what doesn't support.
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 3: Him what does not support San antonio is the free
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 3: throw disparity in game. Three so if you look at game,
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 3: three the shooting was almost, even so there's not much
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 3: of a disparity. Here The knicks lost the turnover battle
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 3: and they did win the rebound, battle so The knicks
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 3: won on the interior, somewhat which you, know that makes
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 3: me not really want San antonio. Here but the other
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 3: REASON i don't want them is because San antonio went
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 3: to the line ten more times and they made seven
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 3: more free, throws so that obviously helped them win this.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 3: Game the free throw, disparity although you could argue it
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 3: wasn't as crazy because obviously The knicks intentionally fouled at
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 3: the end of the game or, whatever which they did
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 3: only like once or twice, Though but usually when you
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 3: see a free throw disparity like that in THE, nba
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 3: it evens out and it starts going in the other
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 3: direction in the next. Game so that worries. Me The
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 3: knicks might get more of the calls, here and they're
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 3: complaining about That wemby flagrant foul that wasn't called. Whatever,
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 3: uh so there is. That So i'm gonna stay away
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 3: from the. Game. Uh the money is coming in on The,
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 3: knicks WHICH i do not. LIKE i THINK i have
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 3: a slight lean To San antonio just because of The.
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 3: UH i think the momentum angle is pretty strong HERE
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 3: u fifty nine per, tickets seventy four percent of the
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 3: cash On New, york though they're still laying about minus two,
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 3: here pretty much the same as the last. Game but the,
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 3: game you, know wasn't really that much of an, Outlier
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 3: like when you look at that box, score the biggest
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 3: outlier was the free throw to, severity so that's the
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 3: one thing that might correct the, most which would indicate
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 3: Towards New. York but, AGAIN i think the moment jam
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 3: angle is a thing man like not having lost a
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 3: game in so long that could affect. You so there
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 3: is that money is coming in towards the over as.
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 3: Well seventy five percent of tickets ninety two percent of
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 3: the cash on the. Over the total is still about
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 3: the same as it was two sixteen and a half
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 3: over kind of makes sense in these middle of series
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 3: games when you only have one day, off you, know
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 3: the defenses can be a little bit less rested. Here
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 3: but both teams shot like right around league average both
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 3: field goal percentage and three percentage in that previous, game
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 3: so there was no outlier there as far as the,
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 3: shooting and only one, Team San, antonio kind of had
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 3: a free throw outlier, there so there's not really much
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 3: of an outlier to look at if you really want
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 3: the over. Here that game did go over AFTER i
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 3: think the first two games of this yearies went. Under
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: game three went, Over BUT i don't really have a
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 3: strong opinion on the total this, time So i'm skipping,
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 3: it and that's gonna do. It, uh the only play
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 3: today is the first five under In Yankees cleveland under
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 3: four minus one oh. Five let's get it, done, Man
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 3: let's get a. Win let's get back on. TRACK i,
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 3: mean LIKE i, SAID i can't really keep up this
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 3: type of, run but you, Know i'm. TRYING i gotta
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 3: figure out WHAT i want to. Do because of, course
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 3: The World cup starts, tomorrow SO i don't know If
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 3: i'm Maybe i'll do like a Quick World cup. PREVIEW
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 3: i don't even really know how Much World cup Content
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 3: i'm gonna. DO i will fill out a knockout bracket
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 3: once it gets to the knockout. Stage Maybe i'll do
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 3: a preview just to go over what the odds are
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 3: and what the new format of it is and, whatever
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 3: and maybe what to. Expect BUT i know basically nothing about,
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 3: it you know WHAT i, Mean LIKE i know which teams,
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 3: are which countries are generally, good and. Whatever SO i don't.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 3: Know we could talk about, THAT i guess in the
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 3: new format and how to bet, soccer BECAUSE i do
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 3: know something about, that even Though i've rarely done. IT
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 3: i don't know If i'm gonna wind up having any
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 3: plays during The World. Cup it's not gonna be my focus,
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 3: though so, uh Maybe i'll do a special like today
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 3: or something in the afternoon to talk about. It BUT
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 3: i do have to leave at some point in the,
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 3: evening so that's gonna do. It learn a tone On,
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 3: twitter learn a tone On, instagram like subscribe to the channel.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 3: Here you'll then know WHEN i go, live you'll get.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 3: Notified so, uh with you, know random content coming up
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 3: and no idea When i'm gonna actually do. It that
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 3: probably is. Helpful it wasn't for The Belmont stakes, though
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 3: BECAUSE i was wrong about another horse, race so not
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 3: my forte. Though neither is. Soccer so there you. Go
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 3: covered in you because my yuke channel on YouTube you
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 3: and check that. Out this show is on audio as, Well, Apple, Spotify.
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 3: Spreakers you can check that out there as. Well all
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 3: of that helps me. Out patreon dot, com slash learn
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 3: To tone for some bonus, stuff and The Loser cast
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 3: we had a new episode last, night and the g spot.
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 3: Podcast check it. Out it's all on my link. Tree
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 3: that's gonna do. IT i need to get a little
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 3: bit healthier. Here still all, right, peace.
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 4: But don't you go, quiet don't you fade from the.
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 4: Floor your, name, steal mean something to somebody for.
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: Show put the glass, down, baby look at, me, now hold,
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: on hold on nothing.
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: Line, now hold, on hold. On let me fo that bites,
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: hard but it don't get the. Crown hold, on hold
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: on and stay with me now