Latest / Merryn Talks Money / Markets Weekly: Inflation Falls, Wage Growth Cools, and Bets on BOE Cuts

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Markets Weekly: Inflation Falls, Wage Growth Cools, and Bets on BOE Cuts · Merryn Talks Money

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Welcome to the Merton Talks Money Market rap where we
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: talk about the biggest moves in markets this week and
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: what's driving them. I'm join Stebick, senior reporting author of
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: the Money Distilled newsletter. Merion is offer on the slope
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: somewhere hopefully not falling over. So I'm stepping into lead
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: this week's market debrief and with me in the studio
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: is always is Bloomberg Increasingly as always is a Bloomberg
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Opinions market sash and a new guests. So from our
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Marcus Today team, Morwenia Conium, thanks for joining us this
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: week more whena and thank you once again Marcus. Very
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: good of you as always. And I thought, actually we'd
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: start with Morewena because so Morwena goes. You need watch
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: this blog on the Bloomberg website in markets today and
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: this is the basically the ruling market report and more
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: when there's one of the great reporters on there and
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: has been covered closely this week. So I just wanted
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: to see what's the thing that stood out to you
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: more was the big story this week? More inflation a haha.
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: Started off on Tuesday when we had labor market data
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: which showed wage growth slowing, the pace of increases slowing
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: a lot more than had been expected. That put the
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: wind and sales of those who are looking for the
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: Bank of England to cut interest rates sooner rather than later,
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: because obviously if wages aren't increasing as fast, then that
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: suggests that that pressure and inflation is coming down. And
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: we actually saw markets adjusting their bets on interest rate
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  Speaker 3: cuts from the Bank of England to fully pricing in
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: at one point for April and over sort of seventy
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: percent chance of that happening as soon as March. What
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: we thought was going to be the really big story
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: was actually inflation data on Wednesday CPI reading, that is
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: the final CPI reading before the March interest rate decision
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: from the Bank of England. It was expected to show
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: inflation had called, and it did, but the reading was
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: actually in line with expectations. There are a few pockets
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: of things that were slightly higher than we'd have liked
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: to have seen, but it really did solidify that narrative
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  Speaker 3: of disinflation. Didn't see a huge change in what traders
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: were expecting from the Bank of England, but it certainly didn't.
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: Also what had already happened the day before. We've seen
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: the pound therefore coming down this week quite substantially, and
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: that's actually been added to today by policymaker Catherine Mann
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: saying that the inflation was better than she hoped it
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: would be, which suggests that the balance may well be
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: in favor of a rate cut very very soon.
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  Speaker 2: I got this sense, certainly from just the vebes of
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: the last meeting. They basically Andrew Bailey is now looking
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: for an excuse to join the dovish side, and the
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: blank in general is no more freaked out about the
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: employment market than as a bit inflation. I don't know, Marcus,
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: you've been talked about. There's quite a lot recently in
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: the podcast. You think they're behind, don't you completely?
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: And I think I think they should have cut last
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: week or whatever it was, for every fifth part of me.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: But I think the reason they didn't was they hadn't
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: prepped it. But I think Bailey was literally needs an
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: excuse not to cut. I think man as we want
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: of saying, would almost go fifty basis points now. She's
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: quite curial. I definitely think Taylor would, and probably so
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: dingerous so I think they will almost certainly cut on
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Mars the nineteenth. I think they will cut again, possibly
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: the next meeting, but certainly by June, and I expect
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: a further one later than the year. I've for that,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: and I think that they've they've got, they missed the boat.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: They made a policy mistake. I don't know what Hugh
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: pill is on. He thinks indistrates should be higher. So
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: the one to watch is Clailon Bardelli, I think, who
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: is quite hawkish, and she actually moved much more to
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: neutral last time around, so I wouldn't be surprised to
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: see a seven two vote even for a cut. But yeah,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: we've got we've got some serious problems and youth unemployment
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: is coming front and center everywhere. I mean, I don't
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  Speaker 1: really trust any of the OECD data, however, when it's useful,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: I'll choose it. And this time around they're actually saying
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  Speaker 1: that youth unemployment in the UK has actually risen above
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  Speaker 1: the EU average. That is shocking, and it's not just
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  Speaker 1: down to this current government, but this current gol is
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  Speaker 1: making it worse, and largely as it's coming from all
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: angles against ractual reason, it's including the ifs are saying
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  Speaker 1: that minimum wage rises, and particularly this sort of eighteen
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: year old. You know, by upping minimum wages for eighteen years,
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  Speaker 1: it's price to the matter of the jobs market. We
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: all know the graduate situation is pretty poor, but the
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: eighteen to twenty five bucket is in unnecessary stress. There
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: are lots of medical reasons apparently about it. But I
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: think the government is going to have to and will
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  Speaker 1: backtrack on this very soon, I think.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, how do you think that may occur? I mean,
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  Speaker 2: do you think they're all because part of those too
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: the shoe see I don't know when is that the
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: minimum wage itself is very high. It's one of the
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: highest in the world relative to the median wage, so
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  Speaker 2: it's about sixty six percent, which is the kind of target.
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  Speaker 2: But obviously people don't consider that that's much much higher
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: in the northeast of England than it is in London,
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  Speaker 2: for example, But that there's also this other issue of them.
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  Speaker 2: Basically there's a lower minimum wage for eighteen year olds
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  Speaker 2: than there is for twenty five year olds, but they've
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  Speaker 2: started to harmonize that. So basically it's going to cost
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  Speaker 2: you almost the same.
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  Speaker 1: And it's much more expensive to hard people anyway. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: and then this is the point that people who are
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  Speaker 1: going to be mostly joining will be the younger ones
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: coming in as trainees or whatever you want to call it.
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  Speaker 1: But particularly in hospitality, in retail, and even in construction,
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  Speaker 1: and those areas are getting killed.
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  Speaker 3: I was going to say the increased national insurance and
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: employers in the budget before last mostly impacted those kind
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: of businesses which have a lot of employees, you know,
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: all of whom they now who may be near at
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: the minimum wage, they're going to have to pay more
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: on that. But also the national insurance contributions going up,
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  Speaker 3: and so it seems to be impacting the same group
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  Speaker 3: of people.
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  Speaker 1: Well, we're having what's such a strange market. It's not
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: so much people getting fired. Its employers having been sort
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: of holding on to employees' post pandemic, worried they wouldn't
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: be a replacement, are now not hiring. It's it's a
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: lack of hiring which is coming through. And therefore as
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: the youth come through and we'll look for jobs, there
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  Speaker 1: aren't the jobs there.
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  Speaker 2: And you know, just an interest because on this, because
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  Speaker 2: I do think this is quite interesting, because there's that
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: thing where Okay, so the economy is in a sticky situation,
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: but it feels as though if we get interest rate,
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  Speaker 2: it's coming through, and if the government doesn't keep going
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: in the direction is being going in, then there's still
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: a chance to perceive things or ton things that don't
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: make this better this year. I don't know if you
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: would you think, Mawena.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, it's difficult to backtrack on things that they've
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: announced as their planship policies fifteen.
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  Speaker 1: I think let got on new turns.
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: That's true, but usually after usually before they actually announced them.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, it feels like they've announced sorts of things
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: and you turned on them, but usually, you know. I
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: think it's a tricky one. And whether we see you know,
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: waging inflation continuing to sort of come down overall probably
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  Speaker 3: also kind of makes the difference as to expectations at
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: the top of the pile. So I don't know whether
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: it's something that they can easily resolve. You can't stop
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  Speaker 3: people kind of progressing through life, graduating. You've got a
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  Speaker 3: population that you've got, you've got the employment needs that
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: you have. It's a really tricky one.
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  Speaker 1: I think we haven't had the Employment Rights Bill really
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  Speaker 1: yet kick in, and that's another thing which is going
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  Speaker 1: to hurt the employment. It makes again much more expensive
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  Speaker 1: for employers are going to have to give rights much
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: earlier and don't have the ability to be set to
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: say higher and fire or you know, people don't work out.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: And then we also have the renter's rights coming through,
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  Speaker 1: which is again going to impact on the housing market.
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  Speaker 1: So there's a lot of stuff to come through which
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: could be worse. Having said all that, I'm actually quite
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: optimist on the UK economy despite the best efforts of
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: this government.
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  Speaker 2: Give us the bullish cays then.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: What I mean we are seeing bag of England saying
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: zero point nine this year. I think that's too low.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: I think we will be in the early mid ones,
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: which saying definitely, oh yeah, absolutely, yeah, you know, I'm
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: all around, but I mean it's it's to my mind,
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  Speaker 1: what's impacting is is the shift from the private sector
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  Speaker 1: has been hampered by all the things we just mentioned,
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: and the state sector is is still waiting for the
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: big boosts coming through from all the various plans that
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: all the taxes and all the various different measures we
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: spoke about or were designed to raise money's for so
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: I think the state sector is in rude health in
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: that sense, and we saw the last the last data,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: the strongest bit was very much government spending. I think
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: that's an ongoing trend. However, this private sector real data,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: particularly things like purchasing managers surveys, even the British are
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: retail consortiums, sales are actually more optimistic than we thought.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: This always the first quarter in the UK. Maybe it's
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: our seasonals in our stats, I don't know, but the
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: first quarter is normally pretty strong and it looks like
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: this first quarter is going to be again quite good.
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  Speaker 1: So I'm blast half full.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: Well, that's good. And obviously if industry it has come
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: doing hose and market maybe kicks another and it's been
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: really weak for a good couple of years now, I
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: presumably we can get better.
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: And rents have actually well, the pace of rent increases
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: has been coming down quite substantially, and it's you know
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: in London even you know, we're seeing it sort of
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: the lowest rate inflation I think since the peak in
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty four. You know, it really has come down
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: a lot, and so that helps interest rates coming down
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: may help landlords further. Although I think there's quite a
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: lot of other things that need to be done to
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: help landlords further, to make that a more attractive proposition.
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: But I think you know you've got certainly some backways,
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: and like you said, the purchasing manager's surveys are indicating
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: increasing confidence. Perhaps now some of that uncertainty from the
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: last budget has passed. I don't think we're necessarily expecting
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: the same kind of drama around the next one. We
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: haven't been talking about it so much this time last year.
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: We were already on it.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: The statement last year was was an important thing because
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: they missed. This time around, we're allowed to believe marks.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: The third I think will be a non event. So yeah,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: it looks like the headroom. The headroom very boring, ongoing problem,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: looks for the moment not to be an issue in
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: that that I think is more saying is this.
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: Bond yields actually coming down as well means that the
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: government does have true money potentially, So that's good for everybody.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: We hope it just there would be a lot cheaper
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: it wasn't for the the political milestrom strum ash.
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: Still thrist into an extent there as much.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: I think it's guilts of forty fifty basis points high
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: than they would otherwise be if we weren't worrying about
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: from one day at the next the fate of who
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: will be leading covenment.
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I know that will be interesting because obviously next
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: week we've got that big buy election and then me
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: we've got more elections and a loll beacon a trap
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: by her points for Kistat up presumably, But I guess
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: we just have to wait and see what happens with that.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: But there was another big story this week, A massive
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: name in the city, another kind of monsters UK asset
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: was snapped up by foreign bayals. Marcus, what do you
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: make of the shrewder still?
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Well, I mean I think ever since Bruno Shoda died
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: and his daughter the only sort of essentially became the
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: most important person to represent the family, it always looked
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: like she wanted to sell. And I think that's clearly
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: what has been shown. It's it's they wanted to sell
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: all of it, and they want to sell all of
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: it for cash, and they found a very interesting buyer.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Nuveene is not a very well known name in the
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: in the UK anyway, I wasn't sure it was a
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: cleaning product at first, but it isn't. It actually very
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: long older company based in Chicago, but it's owned by
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: the Teachers Pension Fund, Insurance and Annuity Association, which is
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: a big thing in the States, you know, and this
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: is this is legacy money, and this is retirement, very safe, secure.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: But they're actually really smart guys, and I think they've
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: had the strategy for quite some while within what they're
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: doing in the States, from private AIRCUA to private credit
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: to all sorts of different types of things. But they've
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: realized that the one big missing point they've got was
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: exposure outside of the States. Now, as the dollar we've
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: seen weekend ten percent or so this year, a lot
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: of US money, not just foreigners putting money into US assets,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: they're going to have to think about, Okay, maybe we
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: hedge your dollar exposure, but also American investors thinking, hang,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: do I not need some offshore exposure. It could be
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: emerging markets, could be in commodities, doesn't have to be
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: in Europe, but it could be in Asia. And the
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: one thing that Schroder's got is large exposure. Has got
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: three joint ventures China, India, and Japan, and obviously a
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: huge suite of products in Europe and the UK, and
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: I think it's a very interesting move for them, for
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: teachers and moving to gain you know, extra trillion dollars
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: worth of assets. It's probably cheap of them to buy
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: an old city name which wanted to sell. Then buying
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: in the States give some better diversification.
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: So you're sort of seeing this as part of the
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: dollar hedge and story almost.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it is. I I think, you know,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: obviously the big black Rocks and Wellington's and Fidelities. I've
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: long been offshore, but a lot of the sort of
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: endowment money and university and all that sort of stuff
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: money in the States, and there's lots and lots and
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: lots of pension funds haven't much exposure offshore. And this
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: is a very smart move I think for teachers to
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: offer a wide range of products at a cheaper price
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: for them, and it gets some you know, exposure outside
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: the dollar, and obviously their internal client based a lot
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: more options. There will be a lot more I think.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's time to buy Aberdeen or the
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: rather different companies that there might be in a comparable
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: situation to Schroeders but certainly I think US money managers
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: buying overseas money managers is I think that's what we'll
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: see more of that.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: Oh okay, that's interesting because that all sector and the
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: UK has been can out armored, hasn't it. I kind
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: of if it's come back a bet, No, hasn't it.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: But it's still one of the cheaper bets to see
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: the fund management as management.
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the AI scare trade of course very well. Yeah,
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: so I mean already, yes, we do have quite a
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: lot of value potentially in new stocks. They are relatively cheap.
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: But there are particularly quite a few sectors which usually
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: would be immune from all the technology hype. I suppose
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: this week were impacted because it's sort of started to
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: seep into areas that had previously been seen as very unexciting,
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: like sort of software information firms and publishers and wealth managers.
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: So that did take a chunk out of those, but
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: like I said, they have mostly recovered a little bit. Well,
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: it's just because the.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: FIRSTY one hundred that was checking the starts from the
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: start of the year and I actually we're up about
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: eight percent this year as the S and PECE flat
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: and I think Japine's the base. It's of a bit
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: twelve percent in stealing terms. But I mean have you
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: been have you been noticing that and noticed because obviously
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: they one hundred has been doing quite well. Was the
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: two fifties still lagging a bit? Any scenes of a
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: chef the med caps or.
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean they have been favored by quite a
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: lot of strategists coming into the year, and I think
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: we are seeing quite a bit of value still to
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: be found in those mid caps. Of course, you look
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: at the Footsy one hundred, you have a lot of
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: effects from the dollar actually because a lot of them
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: earn their earning overseas, particularly in US dollars, so you
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: have a huge currency effect there. And the Footsy one
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: hundred is also driven by these big international companies which
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: have had a lot of strong drivers this year, like miners.
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: I mean, you know, precious Meussiles have been absolutely through
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: the roof and that's really benefited those companies' defense has
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: become another theme. So there's more sort of thematic trades
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: I think going on that are helping the Footsy one hundred,
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: which aren't necessarily about being in the UK, Whereas I
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: think when you're yeah, looking at the mid caps, then
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: they are generally undervalued, and we have started to see
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: I suppose sometimes it misses out, but sometimes it's been
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: relatively said.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: And even energy, I mean, especially if you get something
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: goes on in the Middle East over the next few days,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: which is a possibility. You know, the energy is doing better,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: you know, and that's that's a definite for evaluation of
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: lots of different types of industrials and staples and and
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: you said sort of value. And the old companies that
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: burn profits and pay dividends.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: Shall you know, biggest company in the futsy one hundred.
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: You know, you're always in the top three caps change,
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: So that's a big, bigger driver overall success.
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so old fashioned stocks still doing well. Watch the
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: al praise okay for I mean you were seeing the
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: elttle and you thought that maybe something mate happening around.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: I won't give you that feeling.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: For two reasons. One because if you remember the lead
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: up to the Ukraine or everyone went, oh, yes, he's
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: putting all these he's putting all those troops on the border,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: but he won't do it, will he Well he did,
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: and he did because there was a sense of momentum.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: And I think when you have two sets of aircraft
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: carrier fleets, there is a momentum there whereby you know,
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: you have to think, well, if a deal isn't shown
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: from the ittolers in the Iranian regime fairly soon, which
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: is exactly what Trump wants, and it's gonna be quite hard,
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: I think to resist that sort of momentum. So and
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: I think, to my mind, I cannot see you're on
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: backing down, and therefore I think there will be almost
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: a yeah, we fall into wall. But I mean I
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: think that's a there's a high chance that this is
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: not backing down. And the more and more munitions have
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: been put in in the zone, it becomes almost sadly
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: self fulfilling.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: Okay, well, I think I think when that one will
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: we'll wrap up. We'll see what that pomp show. Well,
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: you see what happens next week. But but it's not. Well,
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: thanks very much for that, Marcus, Thanks very much for weather.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to this week's Merton Talks Money Debrief.
• 19:37
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• 19:39
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• 19:42
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• 19:46
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• 19:50
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• 19:54
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• 19:56
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• 19:59
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