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What the Mogadishu municipal elections mean for Somalia · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: Somalia's capital is in lockdown as residents head to the
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  Speaker 1: polls for the first time in nearly sixty years. The
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  Speaker 1: Mogadishi municipal elections are being seen as a test run
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  Speaker 1: for national polls that are due to take place next year.
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  Speaker 1: Representatives have been chosen through a clan based system that's
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  Speaker 1: been in place for decades.
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  Speaker 2: It's the hottest ticket in town. Mogadishu residents flashing their
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  Speaker 2: voting cards as they head to the polls for the
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  Speaker 2: first direct elections in decades.
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  Speaker 1: I know in the past.
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  Speaker 3: Clan elders and delegates would be bribed for votes, but
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  Speaker 3: now you're free to vote for who you want.
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  Speaker 4: Okay, so open in the back.
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  Speaker 2: Somalia's direct voting system was abolished in nineteen sixty nine
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  Speaker 2: by an authoritarian government that ruled for more than two decades.
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  Speaker 2: After nineteen ninety one, clan representatives elected lawmakers, who then
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  Speaker 2: chose the president. That indirect voting system was designed to
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  Speaker 2: promote consensus among rival plans. In the face of a
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  Speaker 2: bloody and ongoing Islamist insurgency, Al Qaeda linked Al Shabab
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  Speaker 2: militants who want to overthrow the government have made rapid
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  Speaker 2: gains this year, taking dozens of towns and villages. With
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  Speaker 2: the security situation deteriorating, Mogadishu is on lockdown for election day.
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  Speaker 2: Thousands of security personnel are patrolling the streets. Movement has
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  Speaker 2: been restricted and the international airport closed, but that hasn't
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  Speaker 2: deterred eager voters who form long queues outside polling stations.
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  Speaker 3: I was born in Mogadishu, never left this city. I've
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  Speaker 3: seen so much destruction, but today we can vote for
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  Speaker 3: who we want, which is why I'm happy.
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  Speaker 1: Wakle for Hessena.
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  Speaker 3: Hate among the youth have been yearning to have their
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  Speaker 3: voice is heard, and I'm very happy for this chance.
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  Speaker 4: Alamd La man.
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  Speaker 1: Srasana.
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  Speaker 3: I hope today's opportunity to vote will become even better
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  Speaker 3: for our children and future generations.
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  Speaker 2: The direct voting system has been championed by President Hassan
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  Speaker 2: Sheik Muhammad, but does not have unanimous support. Opponents argue
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  Speaker 2: it's a bid to centralize power in Mogadishu, while some
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  Speaker 2: parties in the capitol have boycotted the election.
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  Speaker 1: And For more on the local lessons in Somalia, we
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  Speaker 1: can speak to Matt Briden, a strategic advisor with Sahan Research,
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  Speaker 1: a think tank focused on promoting peace, security and development. Welcome,
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  Speaker 1: thank you for speaking with us. How important is this
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  Speaker 1: election in Mogadishu for Somalia.
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  Speaker 4: I'm afraid that it's it's actually a sort of sideshow
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  Speaker 4: to the bigger problem, which is the unification of Somalia
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  Speaker 4: as a state and a concerted effort to fight al Shabab,
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  Speaker 4: which has taken over a much larger part of the
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  Speaker 4: country than it had two years ago. It's very impressive
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  Speaker 4: and it induces optimism in the sense that a one person,
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  Speaker 4: one vote would take the country forward in terms of democracy.
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  Speaker 4: But there is no political consensus behind this selection, and
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  Speaker 4: that means that it is in danger of driving divisions
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  Speaker 4: deeper rather than overcoming them, and that it's not being
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  Speaker 4: seen as credible by the opposition in the rest of
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  Speaker 4: the country.
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  Speaker 1: And then you have a national election expected in twenty
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  Speaker 1: twenty six. You mentioned this with al Shabab, the armed group,
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  Speaker 1: they have control over large areas of the countryside. So
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  Speaker 1: what are your thoughts about the iplementation of the general
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  Speaker 1: election next year, given that you've just called this tryout
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  Speaker 1: a bit of a sideshow.
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  Speaker 4: Well, I think it's very clear to any independent observers,
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  Speaker 4: there will not be a general election in Somalia anytime
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  Speaker 4: in twenty twenty six. The federal government of Somalia controls,
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  Speaker 4: at best, and I'm being generous, maybe fifteen percent of
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  Speaker 4: the national territory. One part of the country, Somaliland, has
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  Speaker 4: declared independence. Two other regions, Jubiland and Puntland, which control
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  Speaker 4: approximately fifty percent of the national territory, do not recognize
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  Speaker 4: the federal government's authority and will not conduct the federal elections.
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  Speaker 4: And of the half of the country that's remaining at best,
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  Speaker 4: Al Shabad probably controls more than fifty percent. So the
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  Speaker 4: notion of a one person, one vote election is remote,
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  Speaker 4: and it's being widely seen as a kind of cynical
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  Speaker 4: ploy of the incumbent president to extend his term in power. Moreover,
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  Speaker 4: since the election won't take place by May twenty twenty six,
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  Speaker 4: logistically financially, it's impossible. What most observers expect is that
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  Speaker 4: the government will try to declare some kind of postponement
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  Speaker 4: of the election, which gives the president the extension that
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  Speaker 4: he's looking for.
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  Speaker 1: I want to pursue and talk a little bit more
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  Speaker 1: about what you just said about this benefiting the current president,
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  Speaker 1: Hassan Shik Muhammad's re election prospects. What's your take on that,
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  Speaker 1: is this just really trying to buttress his control.
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  Speaker 4: Well, I believe that that is the most credible interpretation.
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  Speaker 4: President Mohammaschik Mahammoud took power for his second term with
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  Speaker 4: most of the country him. In fact, he had all
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  Speaker 4: of the federal member states and the Parliament backing him.
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  Speaker 4: Since he took power, the northern province of Puntland has
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  Speaker 4: withdrawn from the federation and the southern province of Jubiland
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  Speaker 4: has also withdrawn. So the idea that you could have
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  Speaker 4: some kind of unified election is a problem. The reason
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  Speaker 4: that these states have withdrawn is that the federal government
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  Speaker 4: proceeded with unilateral constitutional amendments that they didn't agree with
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  Speaker 4: and many other groups don't agree with, and that did
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  Speaker 4: not comply with the constitutional amendment process. So there's a
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  Speaker 4: feeling that the federal government has changed the constitution, has
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  Speaker 4: introduced electoral laws that are the basis for this election,
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  Speaker 4: and is driving ahead with an agenda that only the
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  Speaker 4: president's supports and that most of the government is opposed to.
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  Speaker 4: And so that risks deepening the divisions in a country
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  Speaker 4: recovering from civil war and fighting with an Alshabab insurgency
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  Speaker 4: and not uniting the country to try to bring it
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  Speaker 4: together and build the federal sort of governance that the
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  Speaker 4: constitution requires it to develop.
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  Speaker 1: Matt Briden, a strategic advisor with Sahan Research, thank you
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  Speaker 1: very much for speaking with us today.
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  Speaker 4: Thank you