Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Grit Moxie and Luck in the NFL Conference Championships

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Grit Moxie and Luck in the NFL Conference Championships · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:12
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman and I am going to be
0:16
Speaker 1: joined by Professional Better Simon Hunter. My companion might be
0:21
Speaker 1: at that. Really, he'd become a very good friend over
0:23
Speaker 1: the past few months. Uh, folks, the world nearly nearly
0:29
Speaker 1: spun completely off its access this past weekend. It sent
0:34
Speaker 1: us into a tilt. Simon, you'll remember this. It sent
0:37
Speaker 1: us into it till that forced Professional Better Simon Hunter
0:41
Speaker 1: to go to bed very early on Saturday night. That's
0:44
Speaker 1: what he texted me, and it forced me to text
0:48
Speaker 1: Simon one word on Sunday afternoon, disgusting. My friend, Simon,
0:55
Speaker 1: do you know what I'm talking about? Can you recall
0:57
Speaker 1: the very two specific instances that I'm talking about. I
1:00
Speaker 1: don't remember the first of all. I know the second
1:02
Speaker 1: one is definitely about the Chiefs one because we're both
1:04
Speaker 1: just like, like that was the nineteen to three we're
1:06
Speaker 1: both cruising, and then when he went down. I think
1:08
Speaker 1: that's when you texting disgusting. I was just like, that's
1:11
Speaker 1: that's football, man, It's it's a dirty sport. Dudes get hurt. Yeah,
1:14
Speaker 1: Like that Chiefs game, you know, was definitely frustrating because
1:19
Speaker 1: we were loving the Chiefs at minus ten and then
1:23
Speaker 1: the game started moving in the opposite direction. And I
1:26
Speaker 1: do want to talk about that. I want to remind
1:28
Speaker 1: everybody that we made five picks uh and that Simon Hunter,
1:33
Speaker 1: the professional Better has jow me on the podcast every
1:35
Speaker 1: single week all season long. We made five picks in
1:39
Speaker 1: the DraftKings Pro Football pick Up National Championship. We came
1:43
Speaker 1: in overall, we pocketed uh. But we are still making
1:48
Speaker 1: bets five picks every week. We did it last weekend.
1:53
Speaker 1: We will break that down in more detail. First reminder,
1:56
Speaker 1: and I will announce the winner at the end of
1:58
Speaker 1: this show, but we are bring back the cash field
2:00
Speaker 1: phrase that pays contest lucky listener gets dollars for every
2:05
Speaker 1: game we win each week, and we are giving an
2:08
Speaker 1: equal amount to the charity of the winner's choice. Last
2:12
Speaker 1: week's winner donated all of their winnings to the Juvenile
2:16
Speaker 1: Diabetes Foundation JDF. I'm gonna tweet about that. I want
2:19
Speaker 1: people to check it out to be eligible. Go follow
2:23
Speaker 1: at the Favorites pod and then tag us using the
2:27
Speaker 1: phrase Simon says, stand back up. Simon says stand back up.
2:34
Speaker 1: Tag at the Favorites pod. Follow the favorite pot, Matt
2:38
Speaker 1: Mitchell will sift through the submissions and randomly choose it.
2:41
Speaker 1: You will win the money. Everything we discuss, every pick,
2:44
Speaker 1: we make, all the data. It's in the Action Network app.
2:47
Speaker 1: It's free, it's award winning. Go download it. I'll remind everybody. Simon.
2:52
Speaker 1: Last week, we chose Rams packers under. We chose Ravens
3:02
Speaker 1: bills under Bills minus one in the first half, Chiefs
3:08
Speaker 1: minus eight, bucks plus three, three and a half whatever
3:13
Speaker 1: it was. We went two and three. It was the
3:17
Speaker 1: bills minus one in the first half. That Actually, when
3:20
Speaker 1: I texted you that, I said, is it too much
3:22
Speaker 1: to ask that? Justin Tucker missed his third field goal
3:27
Speaker 1: in the phone. Yeah yeah, And uh that was on me.
3:33
Speaker 1: I should have just stuck it to and just said no,
3:35
Speaker 1: I love the bills here because it was funny last week. Um,
3:40
Speaker 1: speaking of trolls, I had some some dude on Twitter
3:43
Speaker 1: I blocked, but I saw Matt Mitchell replied to him
3:45
Speaker 1: wherever he did on the favorites thing. It was like
3:47
Speaker 1: a thread of like ten messages on Twitter, but they're
3:50
Speaker 1: all blocked to me, so I clicked on. It was
3:53
Speaker 1: this dude who I blocked eber Go and he's like says,
3:55
Speaker 1: he's a die hard fan of the show. I'm not
3:56
Speaker 1: gonna say his name because I'm not gonna give him
3:58
Speaker 1: that recognition. He didn't believe me that I cashed out,
4:02
Speaker 1: like I would lie, uh lie on this show to
4:06
Speaker 1: impress the fans about four thousand, two hundred dollars. So
4:09
Speaker 1: I had I sent a picture of the check to
4:11
Speaker 1: the kid just to shut him up. It was just like,
4:13
Speaker 1: are you kidding me? Right now? Yeah, I made up
4:16
Speaker 1: that I cashed out, But yeah, that was tough, man.
4:19
Speaker 1: We went two and three. Uh well, me and man Mitchell,
4:22
Speaker 1: you left the show to go and make a conference
4:24
Speaker 1: called to thirty, which is a staple of Chad just
4:27
Speaker 1: anytime Chad has to do something like he's like, yeah,
4:28
Speaker 1: I gotta go make a call. There's no call, Chad.
4:31
Speaker 1: You just you just don't want to get off by
4:33
Speaker 1: the way. By the way. Throughout my life, I am
4:37
Speaker 1: known in the middle of any conversation to be like
4:41
Speaker 1: I gotta go. Yeah, yeah, right, you got other things
4:45
Speaker 1: going on. So me and both laughed at you for
4:47
Speaker 1: about ten minutes about how stupid you were for like
4:49
Speaker 1: in the Ravens last week, and I basically said to him,
4:53
Speaker 1: I'm loading up on the Bill, especially the fact that
4:55
Speaker 1: you said you loved the Ravens. I said, we're loading
4:57
Speaker 1: up on it. So that was pretty hilarious when it
5:00
Speaker 1: him through, and I was just like, this man is
5:01
Speaker 1: so cursed, but oh my god, because the Ravens, the
5:05
Speaker 1: Ravens so had so many chances to win that game.
5:08
Speaker 1: But I did feel like the Bills in the first half,
5:11
Speaker 1: and you could have overruled me. The Bills in the
5:13
Speaker 1: first half of it up obviously being the right side,
5:16
Speaker 1: but we ended up taking the under. We could agree
5:18
Speaker 1: on the under. And by the way, you and Matt
5:21
Speaker 1: Mitchell might have been the only sort of informed slash
5:24
Speaker 1: professional betters who did like the Bills. Almost everybody else
5:28
Speaker 1: except for Matthew Friedman, who uh, you know, tried to
5:31
Speaker 1: convince me on our show on Sunday mornings on at
5:34
Speaker 1: Action Network HQ before the games that I should be
5:37
Speaker 1: taking the Bills because everybody else from a professional perspective
5:41
Speaker 1: seemed to be on the Ravens. And that was the
5:43
Speaker 1: same reason I hated Cleveland. It was just like it
5:47
Speaker 1: just felt like not fake sharp numbers, but It just
5:49
Speaker 1: felt like the kind of game where like professionals be like, oh,
5:51
Speaker 1: you're getting a great line here were you're really not,
5:54
Speaker 1: like you're falling into the trap of the book was laying.
5:57
Speaker 1: But that Bills one was one of those where that
6:00
Speaker 1: wind um. I was scared in that first half because
6:05
Speaker 1: every time the Bills playing offense where they do dink
6:08
Speaker 1: and dunk a little bit, but they want to take
6:09
Speaker 1: deep shots that they like to get long touchdowns, and
6:13
Speaker 1: you saw every time Allen went deep it was like
6:15
Speaker 1: ten yards overthrown or whatever. It was just because the
6:18
Speaker 1: wind was just taking the ball. Everything lined up perfect
6:21
Speaker 1: for a Lamar to win that game, and he still
6:24
Speaker 1: couldn't do it. So Ravens fan is gonna be scared
6:28
Speaker 1: because they know the window here is maybe four more
6:30
Speaker 1: years of what he can do, Like he can't keep
6:33
Speaker 1: urning around forever and he has to develop accuracy and
6:37
Speaker 1: that game, it's crazy, it didn't work out for him.
6:40
Speaker 1: I know, our poor friends stuck. He lost a ton
6:43
Speaker 1: of money on the Ravens second half. I just took
6:46
Speaker 1: the Bills the second half because I thought to myself,
6:48
Speaker 1: they couldn't They can't play any worse like this, Bills team.
6:52
Speaker 1: They should have been down, like you said, nine six
6:54
Speaker 1: or nine three at half. Both kickers were miss some
6:56
Speaker 1: field goals because of the wind, and that when he
7:01
Speaker 1: drove that field and that picks six. Man, I mean,
7:03
Speaker 1: I can't imagine what the Richter scale was in Buffalo,
7:07
Speaker 1: but like, that's one of those moments where like Bills
7:09
Speaker 1: fans haven't had a moment like that what years. So
7:12
Speaker 1: it was like I felt that was him because obviously
7:14
Speaker 1: had bet on it. We have these futures, but I
7:16
Speaker 1: was just like, oh my god, that's that's one of
7:18
Speaker 1: those like you tell your grandkids about if they make
7:20
Speaker 1: our run here, Like the Eagles had an interception against
7:23
Speaker 1: the Vikings and Patrick Brompson basically took it back for
7:26
Speaker 1: a pick six and that's what helped us go to
7:29
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Like that guy can will never pay
7:31
Speaker 1: for a drink and Philip it's one of those where
7:33
Speaker 1: like the guy just made a legacy. He can do
7:35
Speaker 1: nothing the rest of his career, but Buffalo will remember
7:38
Speaker 1: that pick six. So it's pretty pretty legendary weekend. I
7:40
Speaker 1: know people can play about the games, but I thought
7:42
Speaker 1: they were good games. For the most part. I thought
7:44
Speaker 1: they were outstanding. Can we go back to something for
7:46
Speaker 1: a second. You guys stuck around and laughed at me
7:48
Speaker 1: for ten minutes, five minutes, But yeah, I mean it
7:52
Speaker 1: couldn't it could have been. But yeah, we were just
7:54
Speaker 1: laughing the fact that you were like, I don't know
7:56
Speaker 1: everything I said. You just poop pooty. You're like, no,
7:58
Speaker 1: I like the raging Ravens with its side. So it
8:01
Speaker 1: was just funny because he's a dire Bills fan. But
8:03
Speaker 1: I won't let him off the hook. I am bitter.
8:06
Speaker 1: We should be sitting right now on an investment of
8:08
Speaker 1: that four thousand, two hundred for a ticket that would
8:10
Speaker 1: have been seven thousand, seven hundred fifty if we had
8:14
Speaker 1: just played the Bills for the super Bowl. It's a
8:17
Speaker 1: little heartbreaker right now. I told you I'm not the
8:19
Speaker 1: one that makes the content for the show, but that
8:21
Speaker 1: would have been amazing content for the show if he
8:23
Speaker 1: had just done that. Futures man, I don't even remember
8:26
Speaker 1: that conversation. Are you saying that I vetoed taking there
8:31
Speaker 1: and just putting it all in a future even worse,
8:34
Speaker 1: even worse? Matt Mitchell, the Bills fan, did he said
8:36
Speaker 1: he wanted the money. I know, Oh yeah, I know,
8:41
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, jump on the pod and explain yourself. I'm
8:46
Speaker 1: not one to hedge. I don't care for hedging because
8:49
Speaker 1: it's cowardly and goes against everything I stand for. US
8:52
Speaker 1: degenerate would not be able to survive. Bills haven't one
8:54
Speaker 1: goddamn Super Bowl yet. There's no way I would have
8:57
Speaker 1: survived a hail Mary at the end of the Cults
9:00
Speaker 1: game that Ravens second half and which is about to
9:03
Speaker 1: be tied before the Bills ran it back for a
9:05
Speaker 1: hundred and one yards, and then two additional games, each
9:08
Speaker 1: one harder than the one before. So I don't feel
9:10
Speaker 1: a whole lot of regret, yet it would have been
9:12
Speaker 1: gut ranging because I'll be honest, and maybe this makes
9:15
Speaker 1: me a bad person, but no, even knowing we had
9:17
Speaker 1: the future tickets on the Bills, still I wanted to
9:20
Speaker 1: be right so bad about the Ravens that I was rooting.
9:23
Speaker 1: Was rooting so hard for the Ravens in the second
9:27
Speaker 1: half because I did not want the grief about you
9:31
Speaker 1: saying I told you so about the Buffalo Bills, and
9:35
Speaker 1: and by the way, you doing the one tweet that
9:38
Speaker 1: hurts my feelings the most, which is cursed. Well happy
9:43
Speaker 1: that one fan he said, Shy, load up on the bills,
9:45
Speaker 1: and I said, the man is cursed. But no, I
9:49
Speaker 1: try to get this through people's heads. It doesn't matter
9:51
Speaker 1: if you have a hundred dollar bet on the bills
9:52
Speaker 1: or four thousand. The sweat is exactly the same. So
9:56
Speaker 1: like Matt Mitchell, throw that out, buddy, we we should
9:59
Speaker 1: have done it. And but we'll talk today about all
10:01
Speaker 1: the hedge and I did um Sunday night. But it
10:05
Speaker 1: just would have been legendary if we had that bet.
10:07
Speaker 1: So right now what we have as a little group
10:09
Speaker 1: is we have the bills in the Green Bay both
10:12
Speaker 1: to win and make the Super Bowl thirteen to one.
10:15
Speaker 1: So it's like a hundred bucks. Well it's like a thousand,
10:17
Speaker 1: three hundred. So we saw that going in our bills feature.
10:21
Speaker 1: But yeah, that that would have been insane. Um because
10:24
Speaker 1: right now I gave it. I don't know if you
10:25
Speaker 1: guys rerumb this either. I gave out the bills right
10:29
Speaker 1: after the Cardinals lost that hell, Mary, and I just
10:33
Speaker 1: said that I liked I thought that the way they play,
10:36
Speaker 1: I could see them being able to take it to
10:37
Speaker 1: the Chiefs like they would have a good matchup with
10:39
Speaker 1: the Chiefs if they could make it. So I played
10:42
Speaker 1: that at fifteen to one and then thirteen to one.
10:45
Speaker 1: So I do have a couple a couple of futures
10:47
Speaker 1: here on the bills. That's what we'll talk about about
10:49
Speaker 1: the hedging. But yeah, we're we're all in right now.
10:52
Speaker 1: Is Bill's mafia? You know what I mean? The bills,
11:00
Speaker 1: hands up and throw your head back. Now the bills,
11:04
Speaker 1: I'm making it happen. Now, stand up, not com on.
11:10
Speaker 1: I am all in. And look, if Patrick Mahomes is playing,
11:13
Speaker 1: if he's not playing, two totally different things. We're going
11:16
Speaker 1: to talk about that. By the way, you can track
11:18
Speaker 1: all the up to date information Action Network dot com.
11:21
Speaker 1: We've got a Patrick Mahomes tracker going literally every single
11:24
Speaker 1: thing said about my homes and the speculation. We are
11:27
Speaker 1: keeping a file on it just so everyone is aware
11:29
Speaker 1: of because it does have massive, massive implications on the
11:32
Speaker 1: betting markets. It was super exciting. Sunday night we did
11:36
Speaker 1: a show. Action Network. Simon tried to get on but
11:38
Speaker 1: he was having technical issues. It was me, it was Stucky,
11:41
Speaker 1: it was Chris Raybon, Matthew Freedman, Shawn Corner, and um
11:46
Speaker 1: we were looking at the lines as they opened instant
11:50
Speaker 1: reacts for the conference title games, and we're gonna we'll
11:53
Speaker 1: get to the Chiefs bills in a second. That game
11:56
Speaker 1: opened at Bills minus one, then it moved up to
11:59
Speaker 1: two Chiefs minus two and a half. The total was
12:01
Speaker 1: fifty five while we were on the show. I assume
12:04
Speaker 1: it was us moving lines because who else could it be,
12:06
Speaker 1: because we are that good. Uh. We were saying, if
12:08
Speaker 1: you want the Chiefs, take the Chiefs right now. The
12:10
Speaker 1: Chiefs moved up to three and a half. We were saying,
12:12
Speaker 1: if you like the total, take the under right now,
12:13
Speaker 1: and it went down to fifty four. So Simon will
12:16
Speaker 1: certainly get into all that and the repercussions. But that's
12:19
Speaker 1: going to be the marquee matchup, which is crazy, which
12:23
Speaker 1: is saying something considering we've got Tom Brady as a
12:28
Speaker 1: what is he right now? A three and a half
12:29
Speaker 1: point dog on the road at Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers.
12:34
Speaker 1: The total is fifty one. Wowser your give me your
12:38
Speaker 1: first instinct. You you saw this line get posted posted
12:42
Speaker 1: I think at four immediately got that down. Give me
12:44
Speaker 1: your take your first reaction on this game, first instinct? Uh,
12:50
Speaker 1: pound green Bay. I was just how because I just
12:53
Speaker 1: knew the public is gonna love the Brady story and
12:57
Speaker 1: the fact that they're a dog. I thought the value
13:00
Speaker 1: was good at four and four and three and a half,
13:03
Speaker 1: but now that it's down to three, you're kind of, well,
13:06
Speaker 1: you're kind of losing here with the Bucks. But if
13:10
Speaker 1: you dive into the numbers, the Bucks are the right
13:12
Speaker 1: play here. The I think statistically, teams that get blown
13:15
Speaker 1: out by a team and then they play them again
13:17
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, it really doesn't fare well for that team.
13:20
Speaker 1: So that Buccaneers game, in the Green Bay game, I
13:24
Speaker 1: watched that game twice. Um, I watched it yesterday, I
13:27
Speaker 1: watched again this morning, and I really think there's there's
13:31
Speaker 1: things you can take away from their first matchup, but
13:33
Speaker 1: a lot of things you can't. It's just a snowball
13:35
Speaker 1: game where they go up to nothing I think Green Bay,
13:40
Speaker 1: and then it just all went the Buccaneers way. I
13:42
Speaker 1: think Rogers through two picks. They had a couple of fumbles.
13:46
Speaker 1: Brady was just on target every time he's throwing deep.
13:50
Speaker 1: My I think my initial gut here was to take
13:52
Speaker 1: Green Base because it's the cold man like, uh, we'll
13:57
Speaker 1: talk about tolls and things like that, but this is
13:59
Speaker 1: a week where both these cities you have to wait
14:02
Speaker 1: on these totals because Kansas City can get a blizzard
14:04
Speaker 1: in a day. We know the deal with Green Bay.
14:07
Speaker 1: It's called the frozen Tundra. It could be twenty degrees
14:09
Speaker 1: there for all we know when this game kicks off,
14:12
Speaker 1: and all these things predicate to Green Bay. In the
14:14
Speaker 1: under Green Bay, we know their defense can make stops.
14:17
Speaker 1: Where I talked last week, this New Orleans defense, they
14:20
Speaker 1: really can't. They really couldn't make stops. We knew the
14:22
Speaker 1: Bucks were gonna put up points where we've seen a
14:26
Speaker 1: playout here with Green Bay. They have a defense that
14:28
Speaker 1: can make big plays, and it's gonna be such an
14:32
Speaker 1: interesting matchup where exactly what you said, I know everyone's
14:36
Speaker 1: looking at the Chiefs and Bill's game is the marquee matchup.
14:39
Speaker 1: I just love this game more because these are two
14:40
Speaker 1: quarterbacks that've been in our lives now for going on
14:43
Speaker 1: twenty years of Brady and going on fifteen years with Rogers.
14:46
Speaker 1: So it's just one of these relationships where it's like
14:50
Speaker 1: it was painful watching Breeze in that game because we
14:52
Speaker 1: all know what Breeze is Breeze is a Hall First
14:54
Speaker 1: Ball Hall of Famer guy can't miss. I mean he
14:57
Speaker 1: is one of the best arms ever in the lead
15:00
Speaker 1: and you just saw his age catch up to him
15:02
Speaker 1: in that game. He could not get the ball ten
15:04
Speaker 1: yards down field. And we're looking at Brady who was
15:07
Speaker 1: reversed age. He's Benjamin Button. And I think I just
15:12
Speaker 1: have to play the numbers and trust that an old
15:15
Speaker 1: QB going from Florida playing green Bay, how do you
15:20
Speaker 1: not take green Bay at three? The numbers now the
15:23
Speaker 1: number is the value is on green Bay because I
15:25
Speaker 1: had this number at three, so three and a half,
15:28
Speaker 1: I'd be sitting here telling people to take the Buccaneers.
15:30
Speaker 1: So I know it sounds kind of stupid, but you're
15:31
Speaker 1: just playing the value number. The same reason last week
15:33
Speaker 1: we talked late Sunday night and you said, are you
15:36
Speaker 1: taking the Buccaneers here? Just value of something you saw?
15:38
Speaker 1: And I said, it's just pure value, like you can't
15:40
Speaker 1: get all to my data in and just one night
15:42
Speaker 1: right after the games, it was just pure value. Play
15:44
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers are plus four against the Saints. Said that
15:47
Speaker 1: number should have been three, and then the late movement
15:50
Speaker 1: in that game was all about Tysom Hill Murray being out.
15:53
Speaker 1: That's why that number dropped, because that is you can
15:55
Speaker 1: say what you want about Hill Tysom Hill for uh,
15:59
Speaker 1: the Saints. That guy every time he runs it, he
16:02
Speaker 1: gets like seven yards at a time. He was a
16:04
Speaker 1: big player for the same thing you saw that really
16:06
Speaker 1: hurt them in that game where they couldn't put the
16:07
Speaker 1: game away. They're up and they couldn't put the game away.
16:11
Speaker 1: So this is another game where I think it's gonna
16:13
Speaker 1: settle now three, just like this Bills and Chiefs game
16:16
Speaker 1: has when fluctuating from three to two and a half.
16:19
Speaker 1: It's just one of those are the books are just
16:20
Speaker 1: taking feelers because the most you can bet right now
16:22
Speaker 1: these books is a grand like. They're not taking big bets.
16:25
Speaker 1: They're just putting out letting people put out feelers and
16:28
Speaker 1: just seeing how they can move the number to get
16:29
Speaker 1: the most action. Alright, a couple of things. Number one,
16:33
Speaker 1: I forgot when we transition to the games to mention
16:38
Speaker 1: that we still have to do the big balls better.
16:43
Speaker 1: The week we got to do our foxhole bet, which
16:46
Speaker 1: is a bet that like everybody in the world hates
16:49
Speaker 1: except for us, and we gotta get into the Hornets Nest.
16:52
Speaker 1: You and I companions in the Hornets Nest unattractive bet. UM,
16:56
Speaker 1: last week our big balls better the week with Chiefs
16:58
Speaker 1: might as ten. We still better chief mineus it didn't
17:00
Speaker 1: work out for us? Who who also um at the
17:04
Speaker 1: end of this segment. UH. People should send their questions.
17:07
Speaker 1: They can send them to directly to me at Chad
17:10
Speaker 1: Moment on Twitter, send him directly to Simon at Simon
17:13
Speaker 1: Hunter tan on Twitter, send him to at the Favorites pod.
17:18
Speaker 1: UM if you have questions, because we have a couple
17:21
Speaker 1: of weeks before the super Bowl after this, Simon will
17:24
Speaker 1: answer any of them. I will answer to any of them.
17:26
Speaker 1: Think of it as an A M A podcast version
17:29
Speaker 1: because UM, I get questions all the time, and I'm
17:33
Speaker 1: gonna ask one of Simon at the end of the
17:34
Speaker 1: show just about being a professional better and sort of
17:38
Speaker 1: that lifestyle. So please send them in UM. You can
17:41
Speaker 1: also email Matt dot Mitchell at Action Network dot com
17:45
Speaker 1: UM as well, UH with whatever question you have and
17:50
Speaker 1: will answer as many as we get, or will answer
17:52
Speaker 1: four or five, will answer two, whatever it is. Do
17:55
Speaker 1: we feel like the packers bet at minus three because
18:00
Speaker 1: I want to be very clear about before I ask
18:02
Speaker 1: that question. When we started this conversation, it sounded like
18:06
Speaker 1: you were going to be on the Bucks. Sounded like
18:07
Speaker 1: you love the Packers emotionally, you want to be on
18:10
Speaker 1: the Bucks because of the number. And then you sort
18:12
Speaker 1: of walked us through that the Bucks were the right
18:15
Speaker 1: side of four and three and a half. Now, if
18:16
Speaker 1: it's Packers minus three, you're gonna be in the Packers.
18:19
Speaker 1: That's clear. Is this a Big Balls better the week?
18:23
Speaker 1: Is this a hornet's nest? Is this a foxhole bet?
18:26
Speaker 1: That none of them feel like they apply to this bet?
18:30
Speaker 1: And before you answer that anyone that's d having me,
18:32
Speaker 1: I'm not checking any d m s until after the
18:34
Speaker 1: super Bowl. I apologize. I just can't do it. I answered, like,
18:38
Speaker 1: five thousand d m s right before Christmas is a
18:41
Speaker 1: Christmas gift. I just can't do it. Man, it's too much.
18:44
Speaker 1: It's too much. Uh, it's too much like pressure questions
18:48
Speaker 1: like people are like asking me like serious stuff about
18:50
Speaker 1: like what to do with their money and different things
18:52
Speaker 1: like that. I can't answer that stuff, man, Like I
18:55
Speaker 1: don't want to tell you what to do with your money. Uh. Yeah,
18:57
Speaker 1: getting back the Big Balls better the week. By the way,
19:00
Speaker 1: who are you fucking Lebron James? Like I don't, I don't.
19:03
Speaker 1: I don't check d ms during the playoffs. That's what's
19:06
Speaker 1: the one I do. I'll screen shout of text photo
19:09
Speaker 1: of my text lens chat. I got a thousand unread,
19:11
Speaker 1: unread text messages, bro, that's how I am. I just
19:14
Speaker 1: like I'll try to be nice and get the people
19:15
Speaker 1: like I am humble. But it's like too much, bro,
19:18
Speaker 1: It's way way too many questions. Especially when if I
19:21
Speaker 1: answer a person a question, they hit me with another
19:23
Speaker 1: two paragraphs What am I doing here, buddy? Like I
19:27
Speaker 1: don't have all the answers, but yeah, yeah, I'm kidding
19:30
Speaker 1: with you. Simon Hunter, professional coward. But I will get
19:35
Speaker 1: to him the off season like that, I promise, Like
19:36
Speaker 1: I'll have a ton of downtime, Like I do. Want
19:38
Speaker 1: to help people, and people have questions about how to
19:40
Speaker 1: build their system. I'm here to help, man, because that's
19:42
Speaker 1: my whole goal of this show is just to make
19:44
Speaker 1: the public better, smarter. And I want to come off
19:47
Speaker 1: as like now that I have whatever it is, seven
19:49
Speaker 1: thousand followers, I'm too big. But like that's nothing, like
19:52
Speaker 1: that's that's little droplets in the ocean. But I just
19:55
Speaker 1: want people to know that it's just too it's too
19:57
Speaker 1: much for just a normal person to try to get
19:59
Speaker 1: back to all of it at once. But I do.
20:01
Speaker 1: I do try to get back to people and give
20:03
Speaker 1: advice either even if they're giving being terribly mean to
20:06
Speaker 1: me or you. I still reply to him just because
20:09
Speaker 1: I don't care. I really don't. But it's, uh, it's
20:13
Speaker 1: this is this week's gonna be tough with our three picks.
20:15
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess we can do big balls better
20:17
Speaker 1: the week here in Green Bay because it doesn't feel
20:20
Speaker 1: like it takes big balls, but like you're gonna feel
20:23
Speaker 1: comfortable taking the points with Brady. Like that's what felt
20:27
Speaker 1: so nice last week because we had the points with Brady.
20:29
Speaker 1: Like I never really I was worried about the three
20:32
Speaker 1: and a half or the three whatever number you got, um.
20:35
Speaker 1: But I just feel the same way about Green Bay.
20:37
Speaker 1: It's like Aaron Rodgers at home minus three. He's owing
20:42
Speaker 1: three in his last three trips to the NFC Championship game.
20:46
Speaker 1: It just feels like he's do and it feels like
20:49
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers are a year away. Like this is like
20:52
Speaker 1: the kind of thing with Green Bay. Last year they
20:54
Speaker 1: went to the forty nine and they got smacked around,
20:56
Speaker 1: and now look at them this year they're hosting the game.
20:58
Speaker 1: I feel like that will be the Bucks next year.
21:00
Speaker 1: I have another year of Brady getting into the group
21:02
Speaker 1: with his teammates and everything like that, and I just
21:05
Speaker 1: think this isn't the year for them. So I do
21:07
Speaker 1: have a huge futures on the Buccaneers, and obviously, like
21:10
Speaker 1: I'm I hedge that, but just what I'm gonna bet
21:13
Speaker 1: this week, I'm gonna be taking Green Bay minus three.
21:20
Speaker 1: I love the box as much as I love the
21:23
Speaker 1: ratings last week, but I can't but I get what
21:27
Speaker 1: you're saying, and I like them at four. I like
21:29
Speaker 1: them at three and a half. Three I lose. I lose.
21:33
Speaker 1: I lose a little bit of my nerve. Yeah, I mean,
21:36
Speaker 1: I will get into it with the Bills Chiefs, but
21:39
Speaker 1: this is just a different situation where both teams are healthy.
21:42
Speaker 1: I mean, I know Antonio Brown might be out for
21:45
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers, which is something to keep your eye on.
21:48
Speaker 1: But this is one of those man if if if
21:50
Speaker 1: we take the three now and it turns out there's
21:52
Speaker 1: gonna be a blizzard on a Sunday. This line is
21:56
Speaker 1: gonna go up because I just don't think the Buccaneers
21:59
Speaker 1: are built the playing weather like that, where green Bay
22:02
Speaker 1: their offensive scheme is based around the run. They have
22:04
Speaker 1: a three headed monster in the running back. So I
22:07
Speaker 1: just everything is skewing right now towards green Bay. So
22:10
Speaker 1: here as we sit on Tuesday, I love green Bay.
22:14
Speaker 1: I love green Bay bomb bomb. It's like a little
22:19
Speaker 1: Randy Newman, little Randy Newman for you. What about the
22:22
Speaker 1: total totals at yeah, fifty and a half fifty one? Uh.
22:30
Speaker 1: When I opened and I was on the over right
22:33
Speaker 1: there because I just got feeling was these are two
22:35
Speaker 1: high powered offenses that can score. But then I checked,
22:38
Speaker 1: like the weather report, and I've checked it again today
22:41
Speaker 1: and it's just supposed to be really cold and there's
22:43
Speaker 1: a chance of snow, so we might be the same situation.
22:46
Speaker 1: I know it's totally different quarterbacks who are way better
22:48
Speaker 1: obviously than Josh and Lamore Miller, uh Lamar Jackson, but
22:52
Speaker 1: it just feels like it could be one of these
22:54
Speaker 1: games where if it's windy, it's cold, its excused towards
22:57
Speaker 1: the under. So I would tell people to hold off
22:59
Speaker 1: on betting the total because if it drops the lows
23:02
Speaker 1: it's gonna go is forty. I can't see it getting
23:04
Speaker 1: below that with the books because I'd be too much
23:06
Speaker 1: of the middle for them to handle. So I think
23:09
Speaker 1: you're you're fine just waiting here. I wouldn't take it,
23:11
Speaker 1: but I do lean the over all. Right, let's get
23:14
Speaker 1: to the next game, because I guess we're deciding that
23:18
Speaker 1: that the Packers minus three is our big balls better
23:20
Speaker 1: the week in the face of overwhelming, uh public sentiment.
23:25
Speaker 1: Let me put on my glasses here and check. I'm
23:28
Speaker 1: looking at the app right now. Of the bets and
23:31
Speaker 1: six of the money are on Green Bay. So simon,
23:35
Speaker 1: this isn't a big ball's bet because we're betting with
23:38
Speaker 1: the money and the public. Yeah, I mean, who's to
23:41
Speaker 1: say that's not our sharp money? So I get you're
23:43
Speaker 1: saying it's it's not big balls. So you can make
23:45
Speaker 1: a fox if it makes you feel better. Actually, this
23:48
Speaker 1: is a hornet's nest, you know why, because it is
23:51
Speaker 1: an impossible game to understand. I'm walking to a fucking
23:55
Speaker 1: hornets nest. All right, now'll be my companion Because of
23:58
Speaker 1: everything you said, Tom Brady in the call doesn't worry me.
24:02
Speaker 1: Box have a great defense. Packers defense isn't as good.
24:05
Speaker 1: You're ultimately betting on Aaron Rodgers in this game. If
24:07
Speaker 1: you decide you like the Packers, you're only betting on
24:09
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. And that's a hornessness, man. It is a
24:13
Speaker 1: hornetsness to walk in and be betting on one player.
24:16
Speaker 1: And that's what I'm trying to get into people in
24:17
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Like I had my my huge edges during
24:21
Speaker 1: the regular season, I'm trying That's how I've been trying
24:22
Speaker 1: to break down to people. Playoffs is true luck, it's
24:26
Speaker 1: it's a really small sample where weird things are gonna
24:28
Speaker 1: happen all these games. Did anyone see a seventeen thirteen,
24:32
Speaker 1: seventeen to three final and that Bills Ravens game. No
24:35
Speaker 1: one saw that coming day when ce uh the Chiefs
24:39
Speaker 1: being up big and then my home's getting knocked out
24:41
Speaker 1: and a real sweat there. I mean, Henny, I don't
24:45
Speaker 1: want to tell you how much money I had on like,
24:47
Speaker 1: because I told you I do these money line parladies.
24:49
Speaker 1: I had so much money tied into the Chiefs money
24:52
Speaker 1: line because I just said, there's no way they're losing
24:53
Speaker 1: their brands in that game, and oh man, like that
24:58
Speaker 1: panic to grab the plus eight plus nine of Cleveland.
25:01
Speaker 1: When My Homes went down, it was like the fear
25:04
Speaker 1: of all fears and like it's just I was just
25:07
Speaker 1: I'm out, I'm getting out of the bet. And luckily
25:10
Speaker 1: the middle hit like the finish at five. So all
25:13
Speaker 1: your teasers, anything you did with the Chiefs, their money lines,
25:16
Speaker 1: everything came through. And if you took the plus nine
25:18
Speaker 1: of Cleveland came through. So I don't know how the
25:20
Speaker 1: books did, but I bet by professionals they got slowed,
25:23
Speaker 1: especially the online like in New Jersey we have like
25:27
Speaker 1: twenty five online books. It's just it's just such a
25:30
Speaker 1: huge advantage. Where I saw there was a tweet um
25:33
Speaker 1: it might have been bet MGM that their volume pregame
25:37
Speaker 1: was lower than it was at the instant My Homes
25:39
Speaker 1: went down. They took more bets live than they did
25:42
Speaker 1: before the game started. So that that's like really interesting
25:44
Speaker 1: aspect of this is that people are just sitting their
25:47
Speaker 1: couch and they see My Homes go down, they just
25:48
Speaker 1: fired twenty away on the grounds and it worked out
25:50
Speaker 1: for them. So it was one of those the books
25:52
Speaker 1: got called quick because I know they moved the line
25:54
Speaker 1: down to six. They moved down to seven, but it
25:56
Speaker 1: didn't like we said, it ended at five. So it
25:59
Speaker 1: was definitely an interest team week with that. And that's
26:00
Speaker 1: another one of those where I know it's it's it's
26:04
Speaker 1: weird to do, but you just have to really trust
26:07
Speaker 1: your gut here in the playoffs because I have an
26:10
Speaker 1: advantage of course, I have a system that's giving me
26:12
Speaker 1: good data that I trust. Well, there's just so much
26:15
Speaker 1: unknown and weirdness and just a one game winner take
26:18
Speaker 1: all kind of things. So yeah, we we talked about
26:21
Speaker 1: we love Green Bay. Anyone out there that likes the
26:23
Speaker 1: Bucks you want to keep ryding the time Brady train.
26:26
Speaker 1: There are millions of numbers that are going to back
26:28
Speaker 1: up that feeling for you, Like the trends are all pointing,
26:30
Speaker 1: pointing towards the Buccaneers. So again we're we're making our
26:37
Speaker 1: our point. It's nest bet, but it's it's definitely of
26:41
Speaker 1: those We're gonna have other companions with this chat, but
26:43
Speaker 1: it's gonna be one of those are You're just gonna
26:44
Speaker 1: have people on both sides all week. It's just gonna
26:46
Speaker 1: be split right down the middle. Totally true. All right,
26:49
Speaker 1: let's talk about this Bill Chiefs game for a second.
26:52
Speaker 1: As you as you look at this as a professional better,
26:55
Speaker 1: how do you contemplate when a player like Patrick Mahomes
27:00
Speaker 1: and his his status is uncertain. How do you thread
27:03
Speaker 1: that needle between getting the best of the number and
27:07
Speaker 1: getting the market, getting an edge on the market. So
27:10
Speaker 1: Chad wants clicks for his Patrick Mahomes updated, I can
27:14
Speaker 1: update everyone right now. The word is in. He's playing.
27:17
Speaker 1: But like the guys knew Sunday night that he was
27:20
Speaker 1: gonna play, it basically came out. He got tackled around
27:24
Speaker 1: his neck. And if if you at all faint or
27:27
Speaker 1: fall down to the ground or stumble, you're automatically out
27:32
Speaker 1: of the game. That's like the pretty much the concussion rule.
27:34
Speaker 1: Even if you don't have the concussion, you're out of
27:36
Speaker 1: the game. Moms didn't have a concussion. Anyone that's played football,
27:39
Speaker 1: you've been tackled, like when you're playing in the backyard.
27:41
Speaker 1: I've been tackled around my neck. You get whiplash, you're
27:44
Speaker 1: knocked out for about like two seconds, like you're Adams
27:47
Speaker 1: out wherever he the guy grabbed him and grabbed him
27:49
Speaker 1: to the ground that way. So I I took the
27:52
Speaker 1: Chiefs right away to pick, just to hedge these buffalo
27:55
Speaker 1: bets I have, and now that the game is settled,
28:00
Speaker 1: I have to take the Bills. Uh. I know it's
28:03
Speaker 1: at plus three, it's sound a plus two. This is
28:06
Speaker 1: a coin flip game. The Chiefs, they haven't looked right
28:10
Speaker 1: in a long time, but they have just been winning.
28:13
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna lean towards them where I like. I
28:16
Speaker 1: like the Chiefs. If this number does go back down
28:18
Speaker 1: to a pick, even though Mahomes is back, I don't
28:20
Speaker 1: think it will. I think it's gonna stay at this number. Yeah,
28:24
Speaker 1: A value for me is on the Bills. But I
28:27
Speaker 1: just it's hard to tell people that this is gonna
28:31
Speaker 1: be an easy one because the Bills haven't played great.
28:36
Speaker 1: They had a lot of things last week where they
28:37
Speaker 1: didn't look right, but it was just one of those
28:39
Speaker 1: where that was just weather. I just thinking about passing,
28:42
Speaker 1: offense and the elements like that. That was just too
28:44
Speaker 1: much for Josh Owen. He really didn't. He didn't do terrible.
28:48
Speaker 1: I think he had like two in yards passing, which
28:50
Speaker 1: is the same as Brady. He managed the game, but
28:52
Speaker 1: it was just one of those we kind of throw
28:54
Speaker 1: out and when I'm looking at two these two teams
28:56
Speaker 1: and offenses, I can strike at any moment. How do
28:59
Speaker 1: you have how how do you have a read on
29:01
Speaker 1: this game where you can just say, well, the Chiefs
29:04
Speaker 1: will have possession last, so they're gonna win it. It's
29:06
Speaker 1: whoever it feels a quite whereas the ball last is
29:09
Speaker 1: gonna win this game either by field goal or touchdown.
29:11
Speaker 1: And if I'm getting the points with the Bills and
29:13
Speaker 1: that's extra value on the money line, that's the side
29:16
Speaker 1: I'll go to. So for this week, this has to
29:20
Speaker 1: be a big balls Better the week because we're literally
29:22
Speaker 1: taking a road team against the Chiefs at home and
29:25
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, So definitely big balls by the week. Here's Bills,
29:29
Speaker 1: Big balls Better the week. We're taking the Buffalo Bills,
29:34
Speaker 1: ladies and gents, and we are taking on plus three
29:37
Speaker 1: there they're currently plus three. Are friends that sponsored us
29:42
Speaker 1: on the tournament draft Kings they're down to plus two
29:44
Speaker 1: and a half. You're right there, down to two and
29:45
Speaker 1: a half. But I do see at other books. I
29:48
Speaker 1: see it at Fandel, I see it at Points Bet
29:50
Speaker 1: using the Action Network, happ and the beauty of the
29:52
Speaker 1: Action Network gapp is I can get the ads from
29:53
Speaker 1: every book. Yeah, And like people were complaining, I gave
29:56
Speaker 1: out you gave out the Bucks plus two and a half,
30:00
Speaker 1: just give out their money line, And people were saying,
30:02
Speaker 1: why don't you guys just go up plus three? There's
30:03
Speaker 1: plus three is out there. I'm just giving out draft
30:05
Speaker 1: Kings number, and if that's the worst number out there,
30:08
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give it out anyway, just because that's who
30:10
Speaker 1: Semi saw sponsors our show. So that was that was
30:14
Speaker 1: the reason why people complain undertand why don't guys just
30:16
Speaker 1: give out plus three? Plus three such a key number.
30:19
Speaker 1: I just gave up the money line because at that
30:20
Speaker 1: point plus two and a half and it rarely will
30:23
Speaker 1: playoff game lane on two Like this isn't one of
30:25
Speaker 1: those kind of situations. So I just gave out the
30:28
Speaker 1: money line. But yeah, shop around this week, because like
30:32
Speaker 1: you just said, there's gonna be books that still have
30:33
Speaker 1: three and a half for the Buccaneers. You don't have
30:35
Speaker 1: to take just the three with Green Bay here. So
30:38
Speaker 1: that's that's that's that's what's another great thing about the
30:40
Speaker 1: Action app exactly what you just said, Shopping around. There's
30:42
Speaker 1: there's plenty of different odds of different books, and depending
30:45
Speaker 1: on the state you live in, you have twenty different
30:47
Speaker 1: books to pick from. So alright, so it sounds to
30:51
Speaker 1: me like, if I can summarize here, you like the
30:54
Speaker 1: Chiefs that you liked the Chiefs that pick you feel
30:57
Speaker 1: like in a heads ups and are you know they're
31:00
Speaker 1: probably the right side as the team to win. But
31:04
Speaker 1: it's close enough in your power ratings that the Bills
31:07
Speaker 1: at plus three as a dog is where do you
31:09
Speaker 1: see the value? Yeah, that's what was so hard about,
31:12
Speaker 1: is like when I first saw this line come up,
31:15
Speaker 1: I go, well, they must know my homes will be back,
31:17
Speaker 1: because without my homes, this line is easily minus six
31:20
Speaker 1: for the Bills. I don't know if anyone watched it,
31:22
Speaker 1: but I did because I had so much money on
31:23
Speaker 1: the Chargers in the final week of the year. Chad
31:25
Speaker 1: Henny was a starting quarterback for the Chiefs. This guy
31:29
Speaker 1: cannot read defenses. Everyone saw that interception you have with
31:32
Speaker 1: in the Browns end zone. Who who was that too?
31:34
Speaker 1: He he literally was throwing it right through the safety.
31:36
Speaker 1: So yeah, if it was Chad Henny, I was, oh
31:40
Speaker 1: my god, Yeah, I would not be hedging this these bill,
31:43
Speaker 1: this Bill's futures. But I just got worried Sunday night
31:46
Speaker 1: that I was gonna be my homes And the more
31:49
Speaker 1: I read on Monday, it just sounds like he's locked in.
31:51
Speaker 1: Like the the only word you're gonna have my homes
31:54
Speaker 1: this week is supposedly he's got a messed up foot.
31:57
Speaker 1: If that's real, that's a big deal because the reason
32:00
Speaker 1: he's such a freak as his mobility in the pocket
32:02
Speaker 1: and he could scramble at any time pick up those
32:05
Speaker 1: ten yards when the defense drops back. So if we
32:08
Speaker 1: got an injured my homes and it does come out
32:10
Speaker 1: that they're limited him because of his foot, yeah that's
32:14
Speaker 1: that's a real big deal, especially for this Chief's offense.
32:17
Speaker 1: So for all these things, I'm telling people, this is
32:20
Speaker 1: why I like the bills. But again, trust your gut,
32:23
Speaker 1: Like we're mean. I just said, it's a big balls
32:25
Speaker 1: bet of the week. We're going against my homes at
32:27
Speaker 1: home in the a f C Championship game. Like this
32:30
Speaker 1: isn't an easy pick here, but it's one of those
32:33
Speaker 1: where it just feels like it's a smart side because
32:35
Speaker 1: we're getting the good value on the number happened now
32:50
Speaker 1: the Bills make me wanna with a total here. It's
32:54
Speaker 1: It's been interesting hearing from different people about this total
32:56
Speaker 1: because I'm like most people. I look at these two
32:59
Speaker 1: often is and I just think points like these guys
33:02
Speaker 1: are gonna be throwing it, They're gonna be scoring. But
33:05
Speaker 1: when you take a step back and you look at
33:07
Speaker 1: the way they played and how they played earlier in
33:08
Speaker 1: the year, they when the Chiefs player, I know it
33:11
Speaker 1: was a bad weather game, they just ran it down
33:14
Speaker 1: the Bill's throat. Uh, they ball controlled. Clyde Edwards Hilaire
33:18
Speaker 1: had a career day. I think you rushed for like
33:20
Speaker 1: one thirty and he really dominated the Bill's defense. And
33:25
Speaker 1: you fast forward and now the Bill's defense. I told
33:27
Speaker 1: you last week I thought their linebackers had looked better
33:30
Speaker 1: and they played better against the Ravens, and I think
33:32
Speaker 1: they've been improving to the point now where I trust
33:36
Speaker 1: them here and I think that they can really take
33:39
Speaker 1: that aspect away from the Chiefs. The Chiefs won't be
33:41
Speaker 1: aild a ball control it. So another game. I'll tell
33:44
Speaker 1: people to wait, wait on the weather. But right now
33:46
Speaker 1: I'm leaning towards the younger. But it's gonna be interesting
33:50
Speaker 1: seeing where the money comes. And I think whatever opened
33:53
Speaker 1: at it bumped up, right, I think it went up
33:54
Speaker 1: two points open maybe at now it's up to fifty.
33:59
Speaker 1: So I saw it open at fifty and get bet down. Okay, okay,
34:05
Speaker 1: so that makes more sense. So it was like whenever
34:08
Speaker 1: it opened, I just took younger, just thinking to myself,
34:10
Speaker 1: just like we did with the Chiefs and the Browns,
34:13
Speaker 1: it's just a lot of points in a playoff game
34:15
Speaker 1: where a few goals are more likely to happen. Guys
34:18
Speaker 1: just get tight in the red zone and this will
34:21
Speaker 1: be the same thing where if like we just talked about,
34:25
Speaker 1: I just don't know what the deal is with my
34:27
Speaker 1: home's foot and this is a high total. If he
34:30
Speaker 1: was fully healthy, of course, this would be a fun
34:32
Speaker 1: over because both these teams on score. But if I'm
34:35
Speaker 1: back in the Bills and I think Mahomes isn't right,
34:37
Speaker 1: the Bills in the under is to play here. So
34:40
Speaker 1: if you want to make that our foxhold bet the
34:42
Speaker 1: under here, there's definite actly many of us in this
34:44
Speaker 1: whole fighting. I feel like it's going to be a
34:47
Speaker 1: wise guy play, so I'm down with it. Like if
34:50
Speaker 1: we got to choose one. Then I think we go
34:52
Speaker 1: with this is the foxhold because most people will want
34:55
Speaker 1: to bet on the over if it's a Chiefs game. Basically,
35:00
Speaker 1: let's climb down into the fox hole. I gave out
35:06
Speaker 1: like three teasers on Twitter, and it was just a
35:08
Speaker 1: magical weekend, especially if you go against Wong, who Wong
35:12
Speaker 1: says never never teased through zero. I always tease through
35:14
Speaker 1: zero because I don't care if I get three and
35:16
Speaker 1: a half or four and a half with a team
35:18
Speaker 1: that's favorite, I just feel better about. I know I'm
35:21
Speaker 1: giving up a point of value, but I just love
35:23
Speaker 1: those key numbers where I just thought that Ravens game,
35:26
Speaker 1: if they did beat the Bills, they were gonna beat
35:28
Speaker 1: them by three. It was just gonna be like a
35:30
Speaker 1: close game where Justin Tucker hits a field goal and
35:32
Speaker 1: that's how they win. And I gave up my three
35:35
Speaker 1: best but I honestly think I was like thirty five
35:37
Speaker 1: and oh or whatever it was, because like I took
35:39
Speaker 1: the under in that Rams Green Bay game, the teaser
35:42
Speaker 1: hit it by one. It's like that undercash I took
35:45
Speaker 1: um the over in a teaser and that Saints and
35:50
Speaker 1: Bucks game, the the over under just straight up and
35:53
Speaker 1: missed by two points. But if you took the teaser,
35:55
Speaker 1: the overhead and the under it. So that's one of
35:57
Speaker 1: these things where I I tried to tell people the
35:59
Speaker 1: teasers are in the playoffs, just because the books are
36:02
Speaker 1: so sharp at this point, especially with the totals this
36:05
Speaker 1: week for teasers, it's gonna be a little different where
36:08
Speaker 1: if if this does get down to two and a
36:10
Speaker 1: half like it is right now, it's hard not to
36:13
Speaker 1: take the Chiefs at home plus three and a half
36:16
Speaker 1: with the Buccaneers or green Bay if that again it
36:18
Speaker 1: gets down a two and a half. If I'm getting
36:20
Speaker 1: green Bay at three and a half at home, that's
36:21
Speaker 1: another one I'd have to tease, just because those are
36:24
Speaker 1: such key numbers and you're getting home dogs now in
36:26
Speaker 1: the playoffs. So exceptly one of those weeks where I'm
36:29
Speaker 1: gonna hold off on it because I, like I keep
36:32
Speaker 1: amering home. The weather thing, it's just such a big
36:34
Speaker 1: deal here in late January, especially in cities like this,
36:37
Speaker 1: you have to be on top of the weather because
36:39
Speaker 1: just like we saw him that Bills and Ravens game,
36:41
Speaker 1: that that over under was forty nine, they got the
36:44
Speaker 1: twenty points. These are things you have to be on
36:46
Speaker 1: top on like that that was that was a rare,
36:50
Speaker 1: rare game where it was like the minute that game
36:52
Speaker 1: started and Tucker missed that field goal, you're like, okay,
36:55
Speaker 1: this isn't under like that when you saw the flags
36:57
Speaker 1: just whipping, that's what you're looking for. Those are like
37:00
Speaker 1: the dreams as a pro better. It's like a no
37:02
Speaker 1: sweaty nine point cushion on and under. That's doesn't get
37:06
Speaker 1: much better than that. So for all these games are
37:08
Speaker 1: giving out, I just wanted people to hold off on
37:10
Speaker 1: the lines, because most of the value is already gone. Yeah,
37:12
Speaker 1: if you like the bucks three and a half, that
37:13
Speaker 1: three and a halfs out there, take the three and
37:15
Speaker 1: a half. But for me, I would just keep holding
37:17
Speaker 1: off because you missed most of the value early on here. Alright,
37:20
Speaker 1: so here's what we got. Our Hornet's Nest is green
37:23
Speaker 1: Bay minus three are big balls as bills plus three
37:25
Speaker 1: Foxhole is the under fifty four. Here is a question
37:28
Speaker 1: from the user that I want you to answer. Can
37:31
Speaker 1: signmon expand on being a pro, particularly about scale of bets?
37:36
Speaker 1: And I apologize this user sent this in and I
37:39
Speaker 1: completely misplaced the name of the person can assignment expand
37:44
Speaker 1: on taking shots. How does he decide to take his
37:47
Speaker 1: shot and put fifteen K in a game versus fifteen hundred?
37:50
Speaker 1: How do you decide you're gonna move up in stakes
37:53
Speaker 1: like a poker player? Uh? When do you take shots?
37:56
Speaker 1: And how do you spot them? Basically that's it. Yeah,
38:00
Speaker 1: we actually did a show. I forgot when we did it,
38:02
Speaker 1: but it's basically just breaking down just like little tips
38:04
Speaker 1: and tricks I lived by to be a prone things
38:07
Speaker 1: that people have passed along to me. I think we
38:08
Speaker 1: did like the summer or something. But you're absolutely right
38:11
Speaker 1: for this question. I talked about how there's only maybe
38:15
Speaker 1: make three to four to five really big bets in
38:17
Speaker 1: a season. When I do these kind of bets, it's situational,
38:21
Speaker 1: like there's sometimes I'll make huge bets and they'll be
38:23
Speaker 1: like I'll money line the Chiefs with Green Bay during
38:26
Speaker 1: the regular season. It might be minus one twenty and
38:31
Speaker 1: I don't care because I just know that both these
38:32
Speaker 1: guys are gonna win. And there'll be other times where
38:35
Speaker 1: like the Rams in the Jets game where that line
38:39
Speaker 1: got up to seventeen and a half and I had
38:41
Speaker 1: it at thirteen. So when I'm using my system and
38:44
Speaker 1: it's on me, I'm getting four points of data, and
38:46
Speaker 1: then I see the sports books tweet out that percent
38:50
Speaker 1: of the dollar is on the rams and the spread.
38:54
Speaker 1: When these kind of things line up, it's it's one
38:56
Speaker 1: of those where you just have to go all in
38:58
Speaker 1: because it depends I get. It's hard to break down
39:02
Speaker 1: how much I hive out in a week. Like a
39:04
Speaker 1: normal regular season week, it might be like a hundred kit,
39:07
Speaker 1: Like I'll bet I don't know, maybe thirty five thousand
39:10
Speaker 1: early in the week, and then I'll bet another twenty
39:12
Speaker 1: thousand by Thursday, and then comes Saturday morning, Sunday morning,
39:16
Speaker 1: I might finish up and do another forty thousand. So
39:19
Speaker 1: it's one of those where I don't want to have
39:21
Speaker 1: too much early exposure. And in the COVID season was
39:24
Speaker 1: it was really different for me where I was mainly
39:27
Speaker 1: doing teasers and things like that earlier in the week
39:29
Speaker 1: because I was just so scared of all everything that
39:32
Speaker 1: would happen later on the week where all of a sudden,
39:34
Speaker 1: the start running back, start quarterback, whoever it might get,
39:37
Speaker 1: COVID head coaches wherever. It was kind of different this
39:39
Speaker 1: year when a normal season, I might be getting down,
39:42
Speaker 1: like in my bankroll on Monday or Tuesday earlier in
39:46
Speaker 1: the week, because I'll see a line and I'll just
39:49
Speaker 1: know other sharps are gonna hit it that it's a
39:51
Speaker 1: bad line. And even if the publics come on the
39:53
Speaker 1: other side, I just know that pros are gonna take
39:56
Speaker 1: that number for this guy. For these big bets. It's
39:59
Speaker 1: hard to say, man, because like I had, you're gonna
40:02
Speaker 1: get humbled, like it's not gonna work out. Like this year,
40:05
Speaker 1: I had a great year. I went three and one.
40:07
Speaker 1: That means on one of those weekends, the weekend I lost,
40:10
Speaker 1: I lost half of people's bankrolls. Like that was on
40:13
Speaker 1: my big double us. Right, take tell people whatever you've
40:15
Speaker 1: made this year and take half of it you bet
40:16
Speaker 1: on this game. That hurts. Man. It's like it's a
40:19
Speaker 1: hard week. Even if I go five and on their
40:21
Speaker 1: show and I lose that one bet in my clients,
40:24
Speaker 1: like it's it's hard, but it's one of those where
40:27
Speaker 1: you just you just move past it because you just
40:29
Speaker 1: know you're just gonna keep fired. Like that's why I
40:32
Speaker 1: might like get upset and I'll be I'll be heard
40:34
Speaker 1: about a loss I won't tweet about her. I won't
40:37
Speaker 1: pitch a moment about it because you just as a pro,
40:39
Speaker 1: it's just another day at the office. You kind of
40:41
Speaker 1: getting them to do it, and you got you also
40:43
Speaker 1: getting them to the winds, which kind of sounds sad,
40:45
Speaker 1: but it's the truth. Like I got more joy from
40:48
Speaker 1: us cashing in the money than I did win in
40:50
Speaker 1: six figures and my Survivor pool, Like the Surviving Pool
40:53
Speaker 1: win was cool, but it's just me for the guys
40:55
Speaker 1: that one that like, that's what I'm selling in said,
40:57
Speaker 1: where the fans like it's cool to celebrate with them.
40:59
Speaker 1: So that's like the different thing with this where yeah,
41:01
Speaker 1: I hate the negative stuff and like having a bad
41:04
Speaker 1: loss or like last week going whatever it was one
41:06
Speaker 1: in five against the spread. Yeah man, that's uh, that's
41:10
Speaker 1: a tough philto swallow, especially with something like guys on
41:12
Speaker 1: Twitter just dumping on you. But as a pro, I
41:14
Speaker 1: don't really worry about too much because if you do
41:18
Speaker 1: it long enough, you win. And that's the thing where me,
41:21
Speaker 1: it's like last week I did bad, this week I
41:24
Speaker 1: went four and oh on my money line bets, Like
41:26
Speaker 1: every team I bet on their money lines came through
41:28
Speaker 1: all my teasers came through. I didn't do great straight up,
41:31
Speaker 1: but it's like I don't I didn't have that much
41:33
Speaker 1: exposure straight up because I just felt safe from the
41:36
Speaker 1: teas number. So it is one of those where it's
41:38
Speaker 1: it's tough to navigate. My advice to him would be,
41:41
Speaker 1: you keep your day job. There's like I joke with
41:45
Speaker 1: all time. I've lived in Jersey now for three years
41:47
Speaker 1: and I've met maybe ten other pros and they're just
41:50
Speaker 1: smartest ship and like they're just locked on their computers.
41:53
Speaker 1: Like when I'm in Vegas, the pros I meet are
41:54
Speaker 1: in their mid sixties with a big gass belly. It's
41:57
Speaker 1: just different. The new wave of pro betters is very
41:59
Speaker 1: different than the old wave. Where the old wave was
42:01
Speaker 1: they just saw spots and they knew they just knew
42:04
Speaker 1: things that they heard things, and that's how they bet.
42:06
Speaker 1: For the new age now, it's just all about data,
42:08
Speaker 1: trusting that data and building the system and playing off that.
42:11
Speaker 1: So for him, I would say, like, you bet whatever
42:14
Speaker 1: you're comfortable with your whatever you're I don't do units,
42:17
Speaker 1: So that's tough to say, but it's like you have
42:19
Speaker 1: to take these risks because if you just do these
42:21
Speaker 1: one units all season. What are you doing here? If
42:24
Speaker 1: you're trying to build a bankroll, you have to take risk.
42:26
Speaker 1: But I try to really instill people in here. If
42:28
Speaker 1: you bet ugly, you're gonna win money. Like that's the book.
42:32
Speaker 1: They win money off ugly teams. They don't win money
42:34
Speaker 1: off the Chiefs. They don't win money off Green Bay.
42:36
Speaker 1: They win it off ugly teams. So keep doing what
42:39
Speaker 1: you're doing. Listen to this kind of show, other football shows,
42:41
Speaker 1: other gambling shows. Most normal pros are good dudes. You
42:44
Speaker 1: want to help other dude like other professionals. It's not
42:47
Speaker 1: like on Twitter where it's just like bad blood and
42:49
Speaker 1: people are like, oh, this guy had this team. What
42:51
Speaker 1: an idiot? Like how can you take the Rams against
42:53
Speaker 1: Green Bay and spread like all these things. It's it's
42:56
Speaker 1: just not like that in the world where where there's
42:58
Speaker 1: just only a few of us. So, like, if I'm
43:00
Speaker 1: reading stuff bad, these guys always reach out, especially ones.
43:02
Speaker 1: I listen to the show and like, that's what I
43:04
Speaker 1: love about the communities, that we're all in it together.
43:06
Speaker 1: You're not against other betters. I know you guys just
43:08
Speaker 1: did a sale on your app. It was twenty dollars
43:11
Speaker 1: for whatever was the season or whatever it was. How
43:13
Speaker 1: do you how do you not just pay that You're
43:15
Speaker 1: you're literally paying for a service that's gonna tell you
43:17
Speaker 1: what side the public song. And for me, matching up
43:20
Speaker 1: against the public is such a key thing in my job,
43:22
Speaker 1: where if I really like a game and the and
43:25
Speaker 1: the public's heavy on the other side, I just keep
43:28
Speaker 1: loading up, especially when the line moves towards what I like.
43:31
Speaker 1: That's the best feel in the world. So I don't
43:33
Speaker 1: I can't tell people what to do with other sports
43:35
Speaker 1: because football is my specialty. Like I don't know what
43:37
Speaker 1: it's like the NBA with the public and things like that,
43:40
Speaker 1: but I just know in the NFL, the book is
43:43
Speaker 1: just so smart and making these lines because this is
43:45
Speaker 1: their biggest exposure. Everyone in the world bets football in America,
43:48
Speaker 1: like this is in America. This is our biggest thing
43:51
Speaker 1: to bet on. And I would tell people. The longer
43:54
Speaker 1: I do it, the more I realized that the best
43:57
Speaker 1: thing ever happening is the legalization of gambling. Like this
44:00
Speaker 1: year was a year of the dog, and I probably
44:03
Speaker 1: most games got an extra plus hundred hundred fifty on
44:06
Speaker 1: these dogs just because of public would come in so
44:08
Speaker 1: heavy on the favorite. So for my advice to these
44:11
Speaker 1: people is just to learn to bet ugly and just
44:14
Speaker 1: to really every day just wake up and check the lines,
44:17
Speaker 1: and then before the game start check the lines again.
44:19
Speaker 1: And if you see, like I keep saying, all the
44:22
Speaker 1: money coming outside and the line didn't move, and it's
44:24
Speaker 1: a home dog and people keep taking the other side,
44:27
Speaker 1: take that home dog and sprinkle it on the money line.
44:30
Speaker 1: Like that's how you build a bank roll. And if
44:33
Speaker 1: you like doing these crazy parlays, keep doing them, but
44:36
Speaker 1: do it for one tenth of a normal bet. Bet
44:39
Speaker 1: very small in these parlays because I like parleys too.
44:42
Speaker 1: It's fun having action on all the games, but no
44:44
Speaker 1: one wins long term betting parlays like the way you
44:47
Speaker 1: win long terms. But I just told people you have
44:49
Speaker 1: to load up on certain games of certain spots because
44:52
Speaker 1: I talked about in our first podcast, Buddy, you have
44:54
Speaker 1: all the power. No one's making you bet, like if
44:57
Speaker 1: you have an itch and you always needed scratched. You
44:59
Speaker 1: always to have action on a game. Make one dollar
45:02
Speaker 1: bets like it really doesn't matter because like you're not
45:05
Speaker 1: you're not betting to win actual money you're betting just
45:07
Speaker 1: to scratch an itch. Like you're not putting any work
45:10
Speaker 1: or thought into your bet. You're just saying, oh, I
45:11
Speaker 1: like this side. I'll just bet whatever I might come
45:14
Speaker 1: on on your all happy dory. But like I'm betting
45:16
Speaker 1: really big money on some of these games, and like
45:18
Speaker 1: I lose. It's real money and it really hurts because
45:22
Speaker 1: it's a lot of money. But like I keep telling you,
45:24
Speaker 1: but the professional way, it's like you just have to
45:26
Speaker 1: get over that stuff and move on. So the longer
45:28
Speaker 1: you do it, it's like muscle memory, and the smarter
45:30
Speaker 1: you get with money management, it's just such an easy
45:33
Speaker 1: thing to make money. Yet once you get smart and
45:35
Speaker 1: have self control, you've made your point. It would be
45:39
Speaker 1: I think, seemingly if the honorable Gentleman speedily brought his
45:42
Speaker 1: speech to a conclusion. So I know it's a long
45:46
Speaker 1: one to answer to the guy, but it's tough to
45:48
Speaker 1: say when to tell the kid to take a risk.
45:50
Speaker 1: But those are the things that I look for when
45:52
Speaker 1: I do take big risks. You know what it comes
45:54
Speaker 1: down to. A wise man, a very wise man. You
45:58
Speaker 1: could say he's got away with words. Chad Millman is
46:01
Speaker 1: proud of himself. You could say he's a seven time author.
46:07
Speaker 1: Chad Milman wrote a book, a four time best selling author.
46:14
Speaker 1: You could say his name begins with Chad and ends
46:18
Speaker 1: with Millman. Chad Millman got something right. Uh, gross bets
46:26
Speaker 1: equal gross profits. Let's give away some money, Simon. That
46:32
Speaker 1: was a great answer, and people appreciate it, and that
46:34
Speaker 1: their sincerity and honesty in that, Like, I know you
46:36
Speaker 1: came on the podcast specifically to sort of start educating
46:40
Speaker 1: people and make them understand like how betters think about
46:44
Speaker 1: these games, and and that sort of key the idea
46:46
Speaker 1: of tracking data, tracking lines, betting against the public. Those
46:49
Speaker 1: are things that we've talked a lot about at the
46:51
Speaker 1: Action Network and certainly I'm glad to see you sort
46:54
Speaker 1: of bringing those home to roost in a really tangible way.
46:57
Speaker 1: We are doing another phrase to pays contest and it
47:00
Speaker 1: earns a hundred dollars for every win Simon and I
47:02
Speaker 1: have this week. Action Network will match that number with
47:05
Speaker 1: the donation to the winner's favorite charity. To be eligible,
47:08
Speaker 1: go follow at the favorites pot, go follow it, tag
47:11
Speaker 1: us and use the phrase, Simon says, stand back up.
47:15
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, producer Extraordinary will sift through the submissions and
47:19
Speaker 1: randomly choose the winner. The winner of last week's contest
47:22
Speaker 1: winning two dollars because we went two and three Keith
47:26
Speaker 1: Schultz at k W Schultz. I hope you're listening, buddy.
47:30
Speaker 1: Reach out to Matt dot Mitchell at Action network dot
47:34
Speaker 1: com at the favorites pot. The player that broke my heart.
47:37
Speaker 1: Remember this was a give us the name of the
47:39
Speaker 1: wild card player that broke your heart. The player that
47:42
Speaker 1: broke my heart was Taylor Heinekey. He was playing all
47:47
Speaker 1: out balls to the wall and I would have loved
47:51
Speaker 1: to have been on him this week. Also, I got
47:55
Speaker 1: on Washington at plus seven and a half Keith who
48:00
Speaker 1: fully this is the tiger bamb to your heartbreak. You
48:05
Speaker 1: just want two and so did the charity of your choice. Simon.
48:09
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48:13
Speaker 1: Packers minus three Hornets, Nest bet Are Big Balls Bills
48:16
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48:21
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