Latest / Sid & Friends In The Morning / K.T. McFarland | Former Deputy National Security Advisor | 07-02-26
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: KT McFarland. So here's the deal, KT, So my job
- 0:03Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks has been to take people
- 0:07Speaker 1: like you who are much smarter than me. I admit
- 0:10Speaker 1: it much smarter to take people like you. And have
- 0:14Speaker 1: you admit that I've been right using the words stuck nowhere?
- 0:19Speaker 1: Those words the last couple of months to describe where
- 0:23Speaker 1: we are with the Iran war. I shut down on
- 0:25Speaker 1: the Kurvy Couch on Sunday, and I think I shocked
- 0:28Speaker 1: the hell out of Rachel Campost Duppy and Charlie Hurton
- 0:31Speaker 1: Griff Jenkins because I think they expected me to say, Hey,
- 0:34Speaker 1: we won, We're doing great, and we're not. We're not.
- 0:38Speaker 1: If you want to use it Dow Jones as a measure,
- 0:40Speaker 1: I guess, but that's not the measure. We're not. So
- 0:44Speaker 1: the question is, KT, can I get you admit that
- 0:47Speaker 1: we have not won anything at this point anything, and
- 0:50Speaker 1: that right now we are basically.
- 0:52Speaker 2: Stuck No, And I don't understand why do you think
- 0:57Speaker 2: we've lost.
- 0:58Speaker 1: I didn't say we lost, but we didn't. There's a
- 1:00Speaker 1: big difference between we've lost and we won. We won nothing.
- 1:04Speaker 1: We won nothing. The straight up our moves was open
- 1:07Speaker 1: before we started this, we made this problem. The naval
- 1:10Speaker 1: blockade wasn't there before we started this, we made that problem. Now,
- 1:15Speaker 1: you want to sell me on Midnight Hammer. That was amazing,
- 1:19Speaker 1: It was perfect. We really did knock out their centifuge.
- 1:23Speaker 1: They can't even they can't even enrich this uranium. That
- 1:26Speaker 1: was a tremendous effort. You want to tell me. Operation
- 1:28Speaker 1: Epic Fury was great. I agree with that too. But
- 1:32Speaker 1: the last two months, these constant ceasepiers, which is ridiculous
- 1:38Speaker 1: because we're still firing on each other, these constant extensions.
- 1:42Speaker 1: Now for the last two months, we've done nothing nothing,
- 1:47Speaker 1: that's my point.
- 1:49Speaker 2: Okay, First of all, as far as ceasefire negotiations go,
- 1:54Speaker 2: we're negotiating while you have a ceasefire. There's a long
- 1:57Speaker 2: history of a lot of fighting, ticks for tap fighting
- 1:59Speaker 2: going on during the negotiations. And I remember being with
- 2:03Speaker 2: Kissinger when we were negotiating the end of Vietnam War,
- 2:06Speaker 2: and we were negotiating for two years and they was
- 2:09Speaker 2: fighting throughout. But in the end you get a deal. Now,
- 2:13Speaker 2: when I look at sort of objectively, okay, what have
- 2:15Speaker 2: we achieved? And you're right, Operation the Nighthammer. Operation epic theory,
- 2:20Speaker 2: particularly operation economics theory, has put Around in a position
- 2:26Speaker 2: where there's no way they win anything. Their proxies are diminished,
- 2:30Speaker 2: maybe not all of Hasbolot.
- 2:33Speaker 1: I don't care what I Won's economic situation is. I
- 2:37Speaker 1: care about America Now the Dow Jones is off and
- 2:39Speaker 1: the SAP is op. But guess what Goods are still
- 2:42Speaker 1: too expensive? Interest rates are still high, inflation is still high.
- 2:46Speaker 1: What do I care? What do you want? Looks like Economically,
- 2:49Speaker 1: that's not going to stop them, Katie, and you know better,
- 2:52Speaker 1: that's not going to stop them from continuing to get
- 2:55Speaker 1: weapons from other countries, money from other countries, and continue
- 2:59Speaker 1: this nonzene.
- 3:00Speaker 2: Well, where are they getting the money? They're not getting
- 3:02Speaker 2: the money.
- 3:02Speaker 1: From any of the are.
- 3:05Speaker 2: At a discounted price. The access are all still frozen.
- 3:10Speaker 2: The money is now moving as around selfish oil in dollars,
- 3:14Speaker 2: which means that we now can have the visibility of
- 3:17Speaker 2: it because it has to go through American banks and
- 3:19Speaker 2: we can see who's buying it for how much are
- 3:22Speaker 2: they paying? Where is the money going once Around achieves it,
- 3:25Speaker 2: And as far as the economic part of it, where
- 3:27Speaker 2: I think your main complaint is that it's screwed the
- 3:30Speaker 2: American people economically. I would disagree with that. The price
- 3:32Speaker 2: of oil this morning was fifty seven dollars a barrel,
- 3:35Speaker 2: about half of what it was during Biden, and it's
- 3:37Speaker 2: starting to come down dramatically. Oil national average price of
- 3:41Speaker 2: oils under four dollars a gallon. You and I live
- 3:43Speaker 2: in New York, so it's a bit you know, it's
- 3:45Speaker 2: a foreign plus, but throughout the country it's a sort
- 3:49Speaker 2: of three fifty three seventy three eighty that's going down
- 3:52Speaker 2: because the price of oil remains down as Iran is
- 3:55Speaker 2: selling this oil, and a funny way, that helps our
- 3:58Speaker 2: economy because it puts more oil in the world and
- 4:02Speaker 2: that the drives supply and demand. It drives found the
- 4:04Speaker 2: price of oil. So if I'm looking at sort of
- 4:07Speaker 2: what's Iran gotten out of this, what have we gotten
- 4:09Speaker 2: out of this, and what is the long term prospect
- 4:11Speaker 2: for the United States, I would say Iran doesn't have
- 4:13Speaker 2: nuclear weapons. Iran's so that doesn't threaten Well, maybe they
- 4:17Speaker 2: were ready to threaten the United States with nuclear weapons
- 4:20Speaker 2: because they didn't have long range missiles, but they have
- 4:22Speaker 2: medium range missiles which could have hit Europe certainly could
- 4:24Speaker 2: have been Israel. Their nuclear weapons program is decimated, their
- 4:28Speaker 2: missile program where they were trying to build missiles they
- 4:31Speaker 2: could reach the United States. That's gone. Their ability to
- 4:36Speaker 2: reconstitute their networks, their Hesbelahamas, et cetera networks. I think
- 4:41Speaker 2: that's greatly diminished. Israel's taken a lot of chunks out
- 4:44Speaker 2: of Hesbela. Israel got a deal last week, an agreement
- 4:48Speaker 2: with Lebanon to Lebanon now recognizes that now he Bela
- 4:51Speaker 2: is the odd man out right. Is Israel plus Lebanon
- 4:54Speaker 2: against Hesbelah. That's a good thing. Hamas is almost gone.
- 4:59Speaker 2: The the peace plan, the hamaspe, the Goss, the peace
- 5:02Speaker 2: plan is proceeding. So I'm looking at this and these
- 5:04Speaker 2: are all wins. Now, do we have some surrendered document
- 5:07Speaker 2: where they're signing on the dotted line. No. But the
- 5:10Speaker 2: American economy is in pretty good shape and going to
- 5:12Speaker 2: get better.
- 5:14Speaker 1: Yeah, but is true what you just said is one
- 5:16Speaker 1: hundred percent true. But when we started this war, at
- 5:20Speaker 1: least back then, it wasn't about the American economy. Now
- 5:23Speaker 1: it's great that that has become a byproduct of all
- 5:27Speaker 1: of this. And you're right, the nuclear stuff, but they
- 5:30Speaker 1: still have the dust. Now. I know that we hurt
- 5:33Speaker 1: them badly when we hammer them during midnight hammer, but
- 5:36Speaker 1: they still have it. And the straight you know, they
- 5:38Speaker 1: do run that straight. It's not us.
- 5:41Speaker 3: The naval blockade, the terrific jobgraphy they run one of
- 5:43Speaker 3: they're freedoms and lanes in the strait.
- 5:46Speaker 2: They run there, and there's around the Oman side of it,
- 5:50Speaker 2: we're running that. Ships are going in and out what
- 5:52Speaker 2: like one hundred and sixty seventy eighty one hundred a
- 5:54Speaker 2: day or climb out and all that's all that pano
- 5:56Speaker 2: oil on the tankers is now flooding into the market.
- 5:59Speaker 2: And it's the dust. We see who's going into those
- 6:04Speaker 2: you know, cratered mountains. We know if they're going to
- 6:06Speaker 2: try to get in there, they're not tricky enough to
- 6:08Speaker 2: somehow dig a five thousand mile tunnel where they're going
- 6:12Speaker 2: to get out the dust. So is the dust buried?
- 6:15Speaker 2: Has the dust been accounted for it?
- 6:16Speaker 1: Yeah?
- 6:16Speaker 2: Let me we'll get there. But it's gone. They're not
- 6:18Speaker 2: using that enriched uranium to make weapons, and they don't
- 6:21Speaker 2: have any missiles to deliver those weapons. So I'm looking
- 6:24Speaker 2: at all that and I'm thinking, Okay, in the fullness
- 6:26Speaker 2: of time, what's likely to happen next. If Iran decides
- 6:29Speaker 2: it's going to spend its money on Hesbalanhamas and death
- 6:33Speaker 2: to America, then the Iranian people who were pretty angry
- 6:37Speaker 2: about their economy six months ago are going to be
- 6:40Speaker 2: really angry about their economy now. It's not getting any better.
- 6:43Speaker 2: For the Ranian people, they can't.
- 6:46Speaker 3: They shot down, Yeah, but we'll see.
- 6:49Speaker 2: Them this time around. I guess what they start shooting
- 6:51Speaker 2: forty thousand tomorrow. I would think the United States could
- 6:54Speaker 2: happen a reaction, a military reaction, an economic reaction, better reaction.
- 6:58Speaker 2: They're not going to get away with shooting fifty thousand
- 7:01Speaker 2: people in the streets with the whole world Washington.
- 7:03Speaker 1: I would hope.
- 7:03Speaker 2: So.
- 7:03Speaker 1: I hope not. I should say so. You said to me,
- 7:06Speaker 1: what makes you think we're losing? Some of the losing,
- 7:08Speaker 1: But it sounds to me like you think we won.
- 7:13Speaker 2: I think we were ready one. And the fact that
- 7:15Speaker 2: these negotiations don't have a sign on the dotted line
- 7:18Speaker 2: thing is of less concern to me than the several
- 7:22Speaker 2: factors that I pointed out. The economic wind for the
- 7:25Speaker 2: United States, price of oils down a lot of the
- 7:28Speaker 2: If you look at Iranian oil, where is that going? Well,
- 7:31Speaker 2: the whole world was supposed to buy Iranian oil, right
- 7:33Speaker 2: if it ever was unsanctioned. It's been unsanctioned. Who's buying it?
- 7:36Speaker 2: Only China and a big discount. So where are the
- 7:39Speaker 2: countries that want to buy oil buying it from? They're
- 7:41Speaker 2: buy it for us. They were buying it from US
- 7:43Speaker 2: before they were buying it from Iran Gulf country. So
- 7:45Speaker 2: I think that's been as terrific for our oil industry
- 7:48Speaker 2: or natural gas industry. The price of oils, I said,
- 7:51Speaker 2: is coming down. We're kind of at that sweet spot
- 7:53Speaker 2: where American companies can make money, but it's not so
- 7:57Speaker 2: high that it affects us as the gas tank. Now
- 8:00Speaker 2: the inslation that the Iran war temporarily caused start coming down.
- 8:05Speaker 2: I think we've already seen signs that it is.
- 8:08Speaker 1: Do you think the American people agree with you?
- 8:12Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean you're a politician, said, you're
- 8:14Speaker 2: the guy who is a.
- 8:15Speaker 1: Policy I have no idea. Listen, the people that I
- 8:18Speaker 1: speak to don't agree with you, but in the big numbers,
- 8:21Speaker 1: they don't. They think that we're stuck in a mess.
- 8:23Speaker 1: We haven't completed anything. And while you're giving us really
- 8:28Speaker 1: great stuff here, this is great, and you're making a
- 8:31Speaker 1: very very good point that we have done well. I
- 8:33Speaker 1: wouldn't agree with you that we want anything yet, but
- 8:35Speaker 1: certainly you're making an argument towards that, towards that stage
- 8:39Speaker 1: them we're losing if people think that. But there are
- 8:43Speaker 1: very few people I speak to that think that we've
- 8:46Speaker 1: won over winning O. We're doing great. Anecdotal it's just me,
- 8:50Speaker 1: but very few.
- 8:51Speaker 2: No, and I'm sure that a lot of people feel
- 8:53Speaker 2: that way. I think the administration has done a pretty
- 8:55Speaker 2: lousy job of communicating the success has had. But I
- 9:00Speaker 2: would also say, we're moving on from Iran. So what's
- 9:03Speaker 2: going to be next? Cubis next? And that will be
- 9:05Speaker 2: a shue.
- 9:06Speaker 1: Hold on before you get the Cuba, I know, before
- 9:08Speaker 1: you get the Quba said we're moving on from Iran.
- 9:10Speaker 1: Do you know where it was last week? I was
- 9:15Speaker 1: in Israel for eight days.
- 9:17Speaker 3: Oh yeah, that's right, yeah, right, And the last thing.
- 9:20Speaker 1: The Israelis want to hear is we're moving on from Iran.
- 9:24Speaker 1: You know, I said this all week long. At one
- 9:26Speaker 1: point last year, President Trump's approval rating in Israel was
- 9:30Speaker 1: like ninety nine percent, and again anecdotal. I don't think
- 9:34Speaker 1: I spoke to one Israeli that's not angry with President Trump,
- 9:37Speaker 1: not one, not one. Because they really thought that a
- 9:41Speaker 1: miracle was in this to annihilate Iran, not to get
- 9:46Speaker 1: the Dow Jones up, not to get oil prices down.
- 9:49Speaker 1: They thought they were in this to make sure Iran
- 9:52Speaker 1: does not have the capability to make a nuclear weapon,
- 9:55Speaker 1: and also make sure that Iran was basically done. And
- 10:00Speaker 1: that's not close either. And the Israelis are pissed.
- 10:04Speaker 2: I'm telling you this, Okay, So Iran does no longer
- 10:07Speaker 2: have the ability to make a nuclear weapon. That should
- 10:09Speaker 2: make a lot of Israelis really happy. But number two
- 10:11Speaker 2: obliterated around what's it supposed to mean? This is ninety
- 10:14Speaker 2: one million people. This is like the people who chant
- 10:16Speaker 2: death for Israel. I don't want ninety one million Iranians
- 10:19Speaker 2: to be obliterated.
- 10:20Speaker 3: I don't want they don't need to be leadership, right,
- 10:23Speaker 3: so we're not going to do it? Why the regime?
- 10:26Speaker 1: Why not? Why not? What what do you mean when in
- 10:28Speaker 1: the regime? Why why let the the I on JC
- 10:32Speaker 1: stays in power? What do you think is going to
- 10:34Speaker 1: happen in five years.
- 10:36Speaker 2: I think that the IRGC stays are limited, and the
- 10:38Speaker 2: fact that the Iranian people, you know, again, in the
- 10:41Speaker 2: fullness of time, what's going to happen in Iran? Fast
- 10:45Speaker 2: forward six months, nine months, twelve months, where's Iran going
- 10:47Speaker 2: to be. It's not going to have It's not if
- 10:49Speaker 2: it decides to use the money from its oil revenue,
- 10:51Speaker 2: this which is not as significant as people thought it
- 10:53Speaker 2: would be. If it decides it's not going to rebuild
- 10:56Speaker 2: bridges and hospitals and better the Iranian A lot of
- 11:00Speaker 2: the Iranian people, they're going back to the streets and
- 11:03Speaker 2: the world will be watching. And like I said, I
- 11:05Speaker 2: don't think anybody's going to tolerate the Iyers you see
- 11:07Speaker 2: gunning people down now, So where's the run in six
- 11:10Speaker 2: months time? The Iranian people are angry? Where is the
- 11:13Speaker 2: iris you see? We already are seeing splits in the
- 11:15Speaker 2: Iranian leadership. There are probably three groups in the Iranian
- 11:18Speaker 2: leadership right now. One is the iyers. You see in
- 11:20Speaker 2: those one hundred and sixty thousand guys, they don't want
- 11:22Speaker 2: to settle anything. They'd much rather be martyrs for the cause.
- 11:26Speaker 2: You then have the parliamentarians and they're looking to do
- 11:29Speaker 2: a deal. They're pragmatists, they've got a country to run.
- 11:31Speaker 2: And then you have the Iranian people who were were
- 11:34Speaker 2: pretty convinced don't like anybody there, but they're not they're
- 11:37Speaker 2: certainly not going to back the iris. You see, I'd
- 11:39Speaker 2: like to see, in the fullness of time, how the
- 11:41Speaker 2: Iranian government regime survives in any sense of power when
- 11:45Speaker 2: they've got ninety one million people angry at them and
- 11:48Speaker 2: they've got a Bible alternative. There's a reason President Trump,
- 11:52Speaker 2: I think, kept the Iranian Army, the regular Iranian Army,
- 11:56Speaker 2: the guys that were in the you know, that's an
- 11:58Speaker 2: army that predates the Iranian Revolution and the Iranian Police Force.
- 12:02Speaker 2: They're regular guys, not the besiege, not the IRGC. Those
- 12:06Speaker 2: guys are still intact. The good guys, the Iranian Army
- 12:09Speaker 2: and the Iranian they're still intact. That could be the
- 12:11Speaker 2: basis of a new government in the run. So for me,
- 12:14Speaker 2: my big success here is a slow rolling coup getting
- 12:18Speaker 2: rid of the i RGC.
- 12:19Speaker 1: Okay, cut you up. I'm sorry about Cuba. You said
- 12:22Speaker 1: they're next, They're on next. What do you see there?
- 12:26Speaker 2: Oh? I think that that deal is more or less
- 12:28Speaker 2: in place, that the that the business leaders have gone
- 12:31Speaker 2: back and forth. Marco Rubio is talking in Spanish in
- 12:34Speaker 2: Cuban Spanish to a lot of the leadership there, especially
- 12:38Speaker 2: even the Castro grandchildren, their grandson, and that the only
- 12:43Speaker 2: things that are standing in the way is like Maduro,
- 12:45Speaker 2: it's those top you know, incompetent, corrupt, apparatic communist leaders.
- 12:50Speaker 2: But the country wants, the country wants to change. The
- 12:53Speaker 2: leaders of the country want to change and economic change.
- 12:55Speaker 2: They'll be massive investment in Cuba, and I think it'll
- 12:59Speaker 2: become My guest is Donald Trump goes to Havana before
- 13:02Speaker 2: the end of his term and that Cuba five years
- 13:05Speaker 2: from now is a close American ally love it one more.
- 13:08Speaker 1: You know, President Trump really did campaign against socialism in
- 13:12Speaker 1: twenty twenty four and just winning everywhere. You know, we
- 13:17Speaker 1: got nine different I believe nine different candidates who won.
- 13:21Speaker 1: Here in New York. We all watched Colorado in horror
- 13:25Speaker 1: A couple of nights ago, we watched the primaries. I
- 13:28Speaker 1: was in Israel. I was watching in horror last Tuesday,
- 13:31Speaker 1: when people like Chevalier and Valdez and Brad Lander, I
- 13:35Speaker 1: are you afraid of what this country is going to
- 13:38Speaker 1: look like in the very near future, not in.
- 13:42Speaker 2: The near maybe in the near future, not in the
- 13:44Speaker 2: long term future. Why so, what are these socialists? I mean,
- 13:47Speaker 2: they don't you know, they didn't even know what socialistsm is.
- 13:49Speaker 2: Most of the people who were voting from the leaders
- 13:51Speaker 2: of the socialist movement communist movement do But I think
- 13:54Speaker 2: the people who were voting for them are voting because
- 13:56Speaker 2: they don't like this. They don't like their lot in
- 13:58Speaker 2: life right now. They don't think the economy is good.
- 14:00Speaker 2: They're not getting they had to can't buy a house,
- 14:02Speaker 2: their college education, they have a lot of student debt,
- 14:04Speaker 2: no jobs, and so.
- 14:06Speaker 3: How do you fix that?
- 14:07Speaker 2: If I look back in history, we had a very
- 14:09Speaker 2: similar pro communist socialist movement in the nineteen thirties why
- 14:13Speaker 2: heart of the Great Depression. Then World War Two comes
- 14:16Speaker 2: and then after World War two prosperity. What happened to
- 14:18Speaker 2: socialism in the nineteen fifties and sixties and comic gone.
- 14:22Speaker 2: So I think that the cure for this the socialist
- 14:25Speaker 2: movement in the country is prosperity, and I think we
- 14:28Speaker 2: are headed there. And I do think the next twenty
- 14:31Speaker 2: five years will be a golden era for the United
- 14:33Speaker 2: States economically. In the technology, I think we're ahead in
- 14:37Speaker 2: artificial intelligence and we're going to keep that lead, and
- 14:39Speaker 2: then we're going to, like by light years, jump ahead
- 14:43Speaker 2: of everybody else, and that's going to be the way
- 14:45Speaker 2: of the future. So I don't like what they're doing
- 14:47Speaker 2: right now, and they'll do some really stupid stuff and
- 14:49Speaker 2: these cities will lose more people and they'll be horrible
- 14:52Speaker 2: places to live. But in the long run, as the
- 14:54Speaker 2: greater economy starts improving, then I think the whole dream
- 14:59Speaker 2: of socialism kind of goes away because there is a
- 15:02Speaker 2: good alternative to a corrupt government and to socialism, which
- 15:06Speaker 2: nobody really thinks it's going to work.
- 15:09Speaker 1: This may have been your greatest performance ever. You know that.
- 15:13Speaker 1: That's how great you were today, Immune Katie, just fantastic.
- 15:17Speaker 1: You came armed with a whole bunch of wheelbox and
- 15:20Speaker 1: you were great. So I love you already. You know that.
- 15:22Speaker 1: I think you're the best. But thank you very much
- 15:23Speaker 1: for this.
- 15:25Speaker 2: Thank you, and I'll be your foreign policy advisor when
- 15:27Speaker 2: you're mayor.
- 15:28Speaker 1: Oh my god, you are going to be I'm serious.
- 15:30Speaker 1: I mean, maybe even cheap of staff. I don't know
- 15:33Speaker 1: something big for you, because you are a genius. Oh quickly,
- 15:36Speaker 1: how are you celebrating Saturday?
- 15:39Speaker 2: Oh? Well, we have a parade in Southampton. It's like
- 15:41Speaker 2: a Hallmark movie parade where the kids ride their bikes
- 15:44Speaker 2: with their little streamers and people re enacted the Revolutionary War.
- 15:49Speaker 2: We have cannons that go off. The fire departments of
- 15:52Speaker 2: the whole area come and I have Let me think
- 15:56Speaker 2: I have eleven grandchildren. I think I've got nine of
- 15:58Speaker 2: them who are going to be with me. You're right
- 16:00Speaker 2: there watching the parade.
- 16:01Speaker 1: Is your daughter in from Florida.
- 16:03Speaker 2: Too, she's here with her four children.
- 16:05Speaker 1: Oh fantastic, that's beautiful. Well listen you enjoy the big
- 16:09Speaker 1: birthday on Saturday. And again, thank you so much for
- 16:11Speaker 1: being great on this program. I love you, Kat, Thank you.
- 16:14Speaker 2: Can I just tell you one great thing everybody should
- 16:17Speaker 2: do on the fourth of July? Shall we do it
- 16:18Speaker 2: every year?
- 16:19Speaker 1: Sure?
- 16:19Speaker 2: Read the Declaration of Independence.
- 16:22Speaker 1: I love that.
- 16:22Speaker 2: Get your family around, everybody gets to read a paragraph.
- 16:25Speaker 2: It'll just strike courage in your heart.
- 16:29Speaker 1: I really do love that. I do read the Declaration
- 16:32Speaker 1: of Independence on Saturday. And we're gonna do it. I
- 16:35Speaker 1: love that idea. Kat, thank you so.
- 16:36Speaker 2: Much, Thank you and happy.
- 16:39Speaker 1: For us you too, I love her.
- 16:41Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Sit In Friends in the Morning.
- 16:44Speaker 2: You can hear sit in Friends in the Morning weekday mornings.
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- 17:07Speaker 1: time for a new episode so you never have to
- 17:09Speaker 1: wonder what the heck is going on here.