Latest / SILVER / GOLD / $UFD Meme Coin Investing & Global Economics / **ALERT** THIS Is Why SILVER Beats Real Estate
Transcript
- 0:00Silver right now is is so undervalued it almost doesn't
- 0:04make sense. Silver and gold are safe haven
- 0:11investments. Many of us put our money into
- 0:14the precious metals to protect ourselves against things like
- 0:17hyperinflation, economic doom. But what about our houses?
- 0:22What about residential real estate?
- 0:24Many of us look at that as well as a way to protect ourselves.
- 0:28Today, we're joined by our friend Brian from Mountain
- 0:31Bullion Entertainment. We're going to talk about
- 0:34residential real estate and what's going on in that market.
- 0:39Will it protect us from economic calamity, hyperinflation.
- 0:43Brian, welcome back to Ron's Basement.
- 0:46Hello, Ron. Thank you for having me back in
- 0:48the basement. It's an honor to be here with
- 0:50you today, and it's my pleasure. Well, it's it's our honor to
- 0:54have you as well. So I'm sitting here in my
- 0:56basement of my house. Am I sitting in a safe haven
- 1:00asset? Any?
- 1:01Any thoughts on what might be coming down the road for the
- 1:04real value of residential real estate?
- 1:09Yeah, unfortunately it's looking like there's a lot of warning
- 1:14signs we're going to have a downturn in the housing market.
- 1:18Some folks are calling it housing crash and I think in
- 1:22some areas it will be at that level.
- 1:26All the different areas will probably behave differently.
- 1:30So some might be affected more than others.
- 1:33Right now the mortgage rates are the highest they have been in 23
- 1:38years. On top of that, of course, we
- 1:41have very high interest rates and it's just a very
- 1:45unaffordable housing market for people who are looking to park
- 1:49their money in housing as a safe haven asset as opposed to the
- 1:53precious metals they say that you're not.
- 1:58Go, go ahead, Go ahead. Sorry.
- 2:00They say that in October, the amount of home sales dropped to
- 2:03the lowest level since the Great Recession.
- 2:07And right now the new home listings are rising faster than
- 2:12demand. So we're kind of seeing this
- 2:15vergence as the inventory just now is starting to pile up and
- 2:21the price cuts have already started in several areas, most
- 2:25of them being in the Western United States.
- 2:28Yeah, you know, I think it's important to point out not only
- 2:31are mortgage rates higher, which makes owning a home if you need
- 2:35to borrow money much more expensive, but the actual price
- 2:40of the homes have gone up as well.
- 2:42I like to use the example and I live in a middle, upper middle
- 2:45class area of Saint Louis and and we've not had these
- 2:49astronomical price increases. But I can tell you that three
- 2:53years ago the average house in my neighborhood would sell for
- 2:56about 300,000. Now those same houses are
- 3:00selling for $500,000. So a person who three years ago
- 3:08bought the house for 300,000 with a 3% mortgage compared to
- 3:14the person today who wants to buy that exact same house, but
- 3:18now it cost them 500,000. But as an extra added bonus by
- 3:23Dynamics kicker, they're going to have an 8% mortgage rate.
- 3:28The the, the monthly payment on the same house compared to three
- 3:32years ago is at least twice as high and could be as much as
- 3:36three times as high. I mean because when we when we
- 3:38talk about these mortgage rates that we hear too, those are for
- 3:41people with really good credit and there's fewer and fewer
- 3:44people in the United States with really great credit.
- 3:47So it's a big, big problem right now.
- 3:51Absolutely. And that's a really good point.
- 3:53The advertised rates, a lot of times people aren't going to get
- 3:56those. A lot of a lot of people right
- 3:58now are over 8% on just their interest rate.
- 4:03And the price increase that you're talking about, it is so
- 4:07big. We are looking at the biggest
- 4:11housing bubble of all time in the United States.
- 4:14Even when you adjust it for inflation, the rate of price
- 4:18increases was is just off the charts and so there will be some
- 4:23correction in regards to that. Housing right now is just
- 4:27unaffordable for most people and so go ahead.
- 4:32Oh, I was going to say when I when I when I, when I think
- 4:35about the, let's say, physical silver that I own.
- 4:40And I also think about my house because I own this house.
- 4:43And I have an idea, you know what it would if I if I sold it
- 4:47today or maybe it sold it a month ago because I think the
- 4:51market's turning already. I feel much more comfortable
- 4:55with the value that I have in silver as opposed to what I
- 5:00consider the value of what I have in my house that that that
- 5:06silver is, is is positioned much more favorably right now.
- 5:12And the value of the house at the quote, UN quote, current
- 5:17market price, does that, does that make sense?
- 5:19If you're looking to buy gold, silver or platinum, do yourself
- 5:23a favor and check out Pinbex, the online precious metals
- 5:27bullion dealer and sponsor of Ron's Basement.
- 5:30I was a happy customer before they offered to support the
- 5:34channel. You'll find they have the best
- 5:36prices, quality and service. I think Pinbex is best and you
- 5:41will too. And be sure to tell him that
- 5:43you're from Ron's basement and that's a really good point to
- 5:46bring up silver right now is is so undervalued it almost doesn't
- 5:52make sense. You know and a lot of that has
- 5:55to do with the what's going on at the COMEX with these big
- 6:00bankers like JP Morgan. So, so silver right now is you
- 6:05know it's just dragging along it basically the lowest price it
- 6:08can where is housing is really set to to lose some of that over
- 6:14inflated value. Right now there is more housing
- 6:21inventory than there was last year at the same time a 6% more.
- 6:27But what the kicker for that one is, is a lot of these big multi
- 6:31family structures are going to be coming on the market over the
- 6:34next few months and of course winter is typically time of year
- 6:39when we see a downtrend in pricing anyway.
- 6:42So as this inventory starts to pile up with these higher
- 6:46interest rates and these higher prices, it's going to put a lot
- 6:49of downward pressure on the price of housing.
- 6:52And it is something where you know for your comparison, you
- 6:56know if you're sitting on silver right now, it has a lot of
- 6:59upside potential property right now is most likely going to be
- 7:03losing value over the next year or two.
- 7:06Yeah, boy. I tell you what, Brian, I almost
- 7:08abruptly ended this interview 'cause I couldn't believe you
- 7:12said something derogatory about the Comex.
- 7:14You know, those guys at the Comex go in there every day, and
- 7:18their number one priority is to determine a fair price for
- 7:22silver and gold and all the other commodities that they
- 7:25trade. So I just wanted to set that
- 7:27straight. Yeah, they're they're such
- 7:30honorable folks over there, you know, just just helping the the
- 7:34fair market value of the metal shine through.
- 7:37Absolutely that's the case. We'd like to thank our no.
- 7:40Anyway the other thing that you brought up which is a great
- 7:43point and and I didn't think about this and I'm sure the
- 7:47viewers, I I hope they caught this as well.
- 7:51When you look at the the value of residential real estate and
- 7:55you compare that to the value of let's say silver.
- 7:58Silver is one of the most undervalued assets in the world
- 8:02right now, whereas residential real estate, I think the
- 8:05argument can be made as one of the most overvalued assets in
- 8:09the world right now. Now, in terms of looking at your
- 8:13house still as a store of value or a hedge against, you know,
- 8:19oncoming calamity, whatever. I'm not saying a house is a real
- 8:23asset. It will retain.
- 8:26Some level of value and it does have that benefit that it is a
- 8:30real asset. It's not you know paper Unicorn
- 8:33fart does paper Fiat money or anything like that.
- 8:37So it is going to retain some level of value.
- 8:40But when you compare the two right now you've got one of the
- 8:43most overvalued assets in residential real estate and one
- 8:46of the most under. So I'm thinking the idea is that
- 8:48I sell my house and live in A and buy silver.
- 8:52And live in a very heavy trailer for the next couple years.
- 8:57But you know, some of the people who sold at the peak, you know,
- 9:02that are kind of on the sidelines right now renting.
- 9:05I'm not sure if they parked their money in silver, but
- 9:08they'd probably be counting their blessings here in four or
- 9:12five years had they made that move.
- 9:14Because I think the way that you put that was really good.
- 9:18It's so overvalued right now and you know you're looking at one
- 9:21Safe Haven asset that's going to be going up in value and another
- 9:24one that's going to be going down.
- 9:27Yeah, yeah, yeah. They sold their house and maybe
- 9:29they'll be able to buy that condo for 75 ounces of silver in
- 9:32the future. You know something else that I
- 9:34like to point out and I want to get your thoughts on this as
- 9:36well as we look at. The construction industry,
- 9:40right, and it's a pipeline, right, resident, you talked
- 9:42about that pipeline kind of we got a lot of new inventory
- 9:47coming on the market in a couple of years.
- 9:50If you take a step back in that pipeline, the company
- 9:53Caterpillar about four weeks ago had their earnings release.
- 9:58And they, they painted a not too rosy picture in terms of their
- 10:02their order flow in terms of, you know, who's ordering this
- 10:06big earth moving equipment. And maybe I dive in too deep and
- 10:10and try to see too many forests through too many trees.
- 10:13But what that told me was, you know, the beginning phase of any
- 10:18new construction project is Earth moving, right.
- 10:21That's the first thing. That has to be done.
- 10:24And if Caterpillar's throwing up a red flag saying, hey, our,
- 10:28our, our order flow is going down, I think that tells us that
- 10:33that that that whole industry could be moving into kind of a
- 10:38a, a period of contraction. You know, that's a really good
- 10:42point and I'm glad that you brought that up.
- 10:45So Caterpillar is already seeing that at the very first stage of
- 10:48construction for these big projects.
- 10:51And yeah that I think that's a smart thing to look at.
- 10:55I mean they say that 32% of home builders cut their prices last
- 10:59month and you know the affordability as as at a 39 year
- 11:04low they're going to have to. I mean it's just it's just a
- 11:08matter of time till the vast majority of these home builders
- 11:11are cutting their prices unless you know they're in an area that
- 11:14really didn't get affected by the bubble which is you know
- 11:17they're going to be few and far between.
- 11:20And so, yeah, that's a really good point, you know, and I and.
- 11:24And I think we're just in this like little oh, you know like
- 11:28when the on the Roadrunner cartoon or was it Wiley Coyote
- 11:31when he would run off the Cliff and he would kind of sit there
- 11:34for a second before he dropped. Yes.
- 11:37Does does that make it feels like maybe we're there now
- 11:40because because I know you know I know some some some very
- 11:44successful real estate agents that are here and one of them
- 11:47lives in my neighborhood. I see him walking by once a week
- 11:49and. It it, you know, they're they're
- 11:51like, they're telling like the volume right now of transactions
- 11:55is like, I'm for lack of a better way to describe it, a
- 11:59fraction of what it was like 18 months ago, two years ago.
- 12:05You know, we're in this weird situation where prices have
- 12:09skyrocketed. Everybody thinks their house is
- 12:12worth twice as much as it was three years ago.
- 12:15But everybody's and we, and I think this is an important point
- 12:18for us to touch on. Everybody's trapped.
- 12:20Well, people with mortgages are trapped, right?
- 12:22Because if you bought a house three years ago with a 3%
- 12:26mortgage, right, you're you're sitting there now.
- 12:29And if if your if your spouse is saying I want to buy a bigger
- 12:32house, we need more room, we need a bigger house and you say,
- 12:35OK, let's go out and look for a new house.
- 12:38And and your spouse says, well, our, our house has gone up in
- 12:41value by twice as much. You know, let's go buy a bigger
- 12:44house and you go look at a bigger house.
- 12:45Well, the value of that bigger house has also gone up
- 12:49significantly. And if you look at the prospect
- 12:52of getting rid of your 3% mortgage and moving up to a
- 12:57bigger house at a bigger price at a higher rate, you can't do
- 13:01it. So people are trapped.
- 13:03People are trapped in. I mean, people with mortgages
- 13:05are. Generally speaking, trapped
- 13:08where they are. So we're in this, this period
- 13:11where there's very little activity and and a very, what I
- 13:15would say, delicate balance right now between buyers and
- 13:21sellers, but that can change very quickly.
- 13:25First, Mining Gold is a development company advancing
- 13:28two of the largest gold projects in Canada, Spring Pole in
- 13:33Ontario and Du Parquet located in Quebec.
- 13:36Each already has. 5 million ounces of gold.
- 13:39Reserves, but exploration? Initiatives are under way at
- 13:43both projects to find even more gold.
- 13:47First, mining is well financed. Has zero debt.
- 13:50And owns an interest in four additional Canadian Gold
- 13:54development projects. I love the the comparison, you
- 13:59know, being in the air with your feet spinning like, oh, what
- 14:01happened? I just ran off a Cliff.
- 14:03You you know and because. Yeah, you that that really is a
- 14:06a good way to look at it. You figure you know if you're
- 14:09sitting on a 3% mortgage rate you know you're thinking well
- 14:13I'm just gonna try and weather the storm cause The thing is is
- 14:16I I watch my housing market pretty closely and what I've
- 14:20noticed very similar to your market out there, there's not a
- 14:24lot going on. The loan representatives at my
- 14:27local credit union, they laid off half of them just 'cause
- 14:31there, there's nothing for them to do.
- 14:33And you know, if if you're sitting there on a 3% mortgage
- 14:37rate and you're looking around, well, OK, maybe I'll sell my
- 14:42house. And then you think, huh?
- 14:45All right, well, I bought this in, you know, early 2022.
- 14:51And the the homes in my neighborhood that have sold
- 14:54recently, Well, let me see. There's eight homes on the
- 14:58market. Only two of them have sold and
- 15:00they've sold for less than what my home is worth.
- 15:03So if I sell my home right now, well, I'm going to take a loss.
- 15:08You know, I only put 3% down on this home as it's I'm not going
- 15:12to be able to sell it for what I bought it for.
- 15:14I'm going to have to pay all the fees when I sell this thing.
- 15:20And then when I go to buy another home, I'm going to have
- 15:22to pay all those fees again. And and so you'd feel really
- 15:27trapped. And it, it makes sense that
- 15:28people decide, well, I'm just going to weather the storm out
- 15:32and hopefully in five or six years, I'll have paid down, you
- 15:37know, the principal enough that that I'm not underwater on this
- 15:39thing anymore. Because a lot of folks that
- 15:41bought at the peak, they're already underwater whether they
- 15:44realize it or not. If they went to sell, they'd
- 15:46realize that they were. What I've noticed in my area is
- 15:51the homes that have been selling, the only ones that have
- 15:53been selling are the ones with big price cuts.
- 15:56And it's gonna take a while for it to recalibrate, for the
- 15:58market to recalibrate and go, OK, so the true value in this
- 16:02area is actually 15 percent, 15% lower now than what we thought
- 16:07it was at, you know, in October. Yeah.
- 16:10And and and mortgage rates aren't going back to 3% anytime
- 16:15soon most likely, right? I'm not offering financial
- 16:18advice. I'm sure Brian would say the
- 16:19same thing, but I would be very cautious about.
- 16:25Buying a new house right now could be wrong, but if it were
- 16:29me and I had the choice, I'd go with Silver.
- 16:33Absolutely, yeah. And I'm not offering financial
- 16:36advice either. I would definitely go with
- 16:39Silver. Getting into real estate right
- 16:41now would be very risky, yet you know, you'd probably end up
- 16:46losing your butt. Even the Wall Street Journal
- 16:50recently had an article saying that, you know, the Wall Street
- 16:52investors think that the housing market is overvalued.
- 16:56And it wouldn't surprise me if we start seeing some of these
- 16:58big investment groups like Invitation Homes, you know,
- 17:02which happens to be a 10% owned by BlackRock, offloading some of
- 17:06their inventory, especially in cities where they've kind of
- 17:09over saturated the market. You know, they're probably going
- 17:13to want to start getting some of these homes off of their plate,
- 17:16which will put additional downward pressure on the price
- 17:20of housing. Yeah, I mean people just can't
- 17:23afford it. I'll, I'll wrap up with this.
- 17:25The I think it's Goldman Sachs puts out a housing affordability
- 17:29index and it's been like the lowest and decades, right.
- 17:34I mean people, if you just do the basic math, you know again
- 17:39if I just look at my neighborhood, half $1,000,000
- 17:42for a house and at seven 8% interest rates.
- 17:47It just doesn't work. I mean, you know, especially
- 17:50when you've got most Americans now are carrying credit card
- 17:54debt, auto debt, student loan debt, everything else on top of
- 17:58that, it's it's becoming a very, I feel like precarious
- 18:02situation. We'll see if if Wilee Coyote,
- 18:06you know, jumps back onto the Cliff or if he does fall
- 18:08straight down. Mountain Bullion Entertainment.
- 18:13That's Brian's channel if you want to hear more from Brian.
- 18:16Go to the YouTube channel Mountain Bullion Entertainment.
- 18:19Subscribe please. OK, because he puts out great
- 18:22information, great content, and in the comments section on one
- 18:26of his videos, tell him you're a basement dweller from Ron's
- 18:28basement. He'll give you a special.
- 18:30Welcome. That's correct.
- 18:32I absolutely will and thank you very much, Ron, for having me.
- 18:35I really appreciate it and I do look forward to speaking with
- 18:37you in the future. Yeah, likewise.
- 18:39Have a great day. We'll see you soon, Brian.
- 18:42Thanks. You too.
- 18:42Have a good one. All right, buddy, That's a wrap.
- 18:48That's a wrap. Did I?
- 18:50I did it in both? No, I.
- 18:51Don't want to end Hold on here, I don't want to hang up on you.
- 18:54Stop.