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TCW83: The rise and fall of market giants. · The Curve

• 0:00
  Hi and welcome to the Curve Weekly. The podcast that keeps you up to date with all the money,
• 0:06
  business and stock market tea. Everyone should experience for us at least once in their lives
• 0:10
  and Annie shouldn't miss out just because she can't afford it. Help me, I'm poor.
• 0:15
  How are you, Vic? Like I haven't seen you for a while. I'm being serious. We talk about work all
• 0:20
  the time. I'm good. What is your chicken from one to five on a personal level so if we actually
• 0:26
  spoke to this lady, been a bit of a advisor to us and she's like, you know, it's good to do
• 0:29
  personal chickens and professional. One to five, how are you feeling? Uh, personal. Yeah. Today,
• 0:35
  actually I reckon a three. That's good. Yeah. Three to three and a half. How about you? I think I
• 0:42
  was like a four. Oh, and then came into the studio and we're throwing with the plan for today.
• 0:48
  I'm a bit, I'm a bit frazzled. It's not great with a change of plan. So that's probably
• 0:53
  borderlining on it two and a half. Oh, shit. Does that watch it affects you? Um, no, no. I'm
• 0:59
  yeah, having a good day. Listening to Gracie Adams on the way to work on the bike. Oh,
• 1:04
  Gracie Adams. Oh, she's so good. Oh, yeah. Oh my god. She's dating a Miss Gal guy. Paul
• 1:10
  Miss Gal. Yeah. So okay, so when Vic and I went to the Taylor Swift concert, she was the girl that
• 1:14
  came out as a surprise guest and we were like, cool outfit. I mean, it's a bit like break up
• 1:19
  music, but it's just like, it's really she's passionate. No, yeah, on the line biking.
• 1:23
  That is so funny because I saw that she was dating Paul and I was like, Paul is a feasible
• 1:29
  and I was like, no way. Yeah. She's a babe. That's your babe. Do you know what did happen this
• 1:34
  morning, which was the first thing I saw when I logged into my phone, which of course I did as
• 1:38
  soon as I woke up, was where I've bought new bedsheets from, where I spent far too much money.
• 1:45
  The lemon cellar ones. Yeah. I was at a party on Saturday night and I was going, oh my god,
• 1:50
  I bought new sheets. And then I started talking about how they were yellow and my friend was like,
• 1:55
  like, I was literally about to bag my ex-flat-met-her-d lime colored sheets. Anyway, I bought these new,
• 2:03
  like, it's like linen sets. I went on Instagram this morning, they're on sale, or 20% off.
• 2:09
  That would be funny. Do you want me to go back to them and be like, hey, can I do it? What do you mean?
• 2:12
  Because I was like, do I cancel the order and re-order and then have to send them back?
• 2:16
  Which I just, yeah. Because I was thinking I could just order new ones.
• 2:20
  Or just send them in and out and say, hey, I saw these run sale. Can I get a refund or a credit?
• 2:26
  No, and it'll be like, if they say no, it'll be like, okay, well, I'm going to return them and then
• 2:30
  just buy them on sale. Big dick energy. What do you think would be more successful? I don't think,
• 2:36
  I think I'd be like, sorry, you bought it out. Because where would you draw the line?
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  Confintational. But where would you draw the line if you have a sale two weeks later,
• 2:43
  and someone's bought them a service, though, it's like, if they're like, no, you've got a way
• 2:48
  around it. Do you know what I mean? It's like, it's in their best interest to be like, oh,
• 2:52
  yeah, sure. Admin customer, but yeah. Yeah, so good. It's like 100 pounds I could have saved.
• 3:00
  It's quite a bit. There's certain stores or brands that actually have policies like that,
• 3:05
  that if it goes on sale within 24 hours, we will match it kind of thing. It was like four days ago.
• 3:11
  I feel like you won't email them. I honestly think I will. I think I'm on a roll at the moment
• 3:17
  of being quite good with my Admin. And I've been really feeling quite good about it. Yeah, good.
• 3:22
  Like, I bought this really hideous, I shouldn't say hideous, because I did offer it to our editor
• 3:27
  who's definitely going to listen to this, but I ordered this black leather bag, which is a backpack
• 3:33
  and not really my style. I just decided I'm not a backpack girl. And anyway, I wanted to return it,
• 3:38
  so I've already clicked return. I haven't dropped it off at the post office yet, but that's a win.
• 3:42
  Nice. Because like, there's been times where I've ordered the same swimsuit in different sizes,
• 3:46
  and then just never returned. Yeah, I think I found a swimsuit of yours that you're supposed to
• 3:50
  return at my house. Oh my god. Can I have it back? That was so expensive. Yeah, I don't know where I went.
• 3:55
  That was very expensive. It's like 300 dollars swimsuit. I've got two lime green swimsuits,
• 3:59
  which is what you figure out all over it. It's like a big giant brown like patch all over the
• 4:04
  stomach area, and the other, I don't know where it's gone. Oh, like my foundation stain on my pants
• 4:10
  this morning comes into the studio and she says, I did get ready with me this morning. I was like,
• 4:14
  go back, really get used to a ticked off era. And then Emily, Emily, I was just like, what's on
• 4:20
  your pants? I was like, oh yeah, sat in foundation. Well, I was doing my get ready with me.
• 4:24
  It's a work in progress, you know? You know, you're going to get better. The more you do it, the
• 4:28
  better you get like public speaking. Yeah, which is true. Yeah. So many people said that to
• 4:32
  me and I didn't believe them. And now I'm like, oh, it's it is a thing. I just did do it. Like
• 4:36
  podcasting was so great now. I am not joking. I was looking back at, because in our investing club,
• 4:43
  one of the stocks that basically presents it by herself. And I was watching it and I thought,
• 4:48
  holy shit, you are so good. I sent you a message. I sent her a message being like, I am so impressed.
• 4:56
  That's like, thanks, babe. No, but being serious, if we, if this was like three years ago,
• 5:01
  and you had to hold your own with no one there, with a camera and speak to it, it's just like a
• 5:07
  really good reminder, you can learn skills like investing or being better with money or presenting
• 5:13
  or tennis, whatever it is. Like, you're always going to be kind of shit when you first start,
• 5:17
  and then you can get better. Very true. Okay, stock market. Stock market. Talk to us. What's happening?
• 5:23
  So NVIDIA, this is the AI darling stock. So this is like the poster child.
• 5:29
  You know, if you're investing in AI, pretty much everyone is investing in NVIDIA. It's in all the AI
• 5:33
  ETFs, like all of that, you know, like it's the poster child. It's the pinnacle. No.
• 5:40
  I like it darling. AI darling is great. And I remember when we first started talking about this
• 5:44
  NVIDIA, I was like, I just was like, the name's hard to remember. It sounds really scary.
• 5:49
  But now it's kind of a household name to me. Yeah, I mean, it's not, but market
• 5:52
  darling is kind of a term. I quite like it. I like it to ones that have just done really well
• 5:57
  consistently. You know, they're just the darling of it. It's kind of like, you know,
• 6:01
  like a patronizing or a pageant. It's a reminds of like the American pageant one or something.
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  Anyway, NVIDIA, NVIDIA, NVIDIA. So it reported its financial results this week. Now,
• 6:13
  why is this important? So this stock has like dominated the return of the S&P 500,
• 6:20
  like for the last couple of years. So why are we only talking about it within the last six
• 6:24
  months, though? Like, you know, it's similar to an overnight success. Yeah. It's sort of like all
• 6:29
  of a sudden become a recognizable stock and company. But if it's been dominating for years,
• 6:35
  like, well, it has literally been the last year. It's like really roofed. Yeah. Yeah.
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  I love it. And it's so its price has gone up 150% in the last year. It's the best performing stock
• 6:48
  in the index. And it has accounted for 25%. So a quarter of the overall return of the stock market
• 6:54
  is due to this one stock. So the S&P 500, it's pretty much up 20% this year. So far,
• 7:01
  5% of that is due to NVIDIA. Does that make sense? So it's like, even though it's such a small
• 7:06
  percentage, well, it's like 7% of the index because its return has been so massive,
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  it's like bought up the whole overall percentage increase of the index. If it hadn't been in the
• 7:19
  index, the stock market would have returned about 15%, not 20. That's massive for 500 companies.
• 7:26
  Be all moving in different directions. And you got this one company that's just like
• 7:29
  talking away, like, dragging up the rest of the company's kind of thing. When was the last time
• 7:33
  that there was a darling stock in the S&P 500? Like NVIDIA, that was really carrying the load
• 7:40
  for everyone else. I mean, back in the day, they're like the tech companies like Amazon and stuff,
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  it was particularly post-COVID, they were like, what was it, 2021? Or even the back end of 2020,
• 7:49
  they went sky high. But it was kind of a group, they called the Magnificent Seven. And it's like
• 7:55
  the seven tech companies, all the like geeky names. So spend a while since there was one that was
• 8:01
  really like. But the thing is, the reason it's so important in terms of its financial result this
• 8:07
  week is that if it sneezes, the whole market gets a cold effectively. Do you know what I mean?
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  Like in terms of if it had a shocking result, the whole stock market would be down.
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  So almost good and bad. It's moving market. So everyone's like, oh gosh, what is it? Yeah,
• 8:21
  it's good and bad, exactly. And so it reported its result and it was a good one. It was a great
• 8:26
  result. Like it's revenue more than doubled, but the share price fell. Why? Because the stock is
• 8:32
  up 150% this year. So there are so like expectations for the stock is so high that even though it
• 8:39
  increases revenue 120%. People, it's not good enough. I want like more. But is it it's not good enough
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  or is it it's gone down because people are like, it's so high it can't keep going. It's combination.
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  So it's like this is what scares me when share prices do massively well or like go up a lot.
• 8:56
  It's like tesla. It's like hey. Yeah, you're expecting you need the earnings and revenue growth
• 9:02
  to catch up almost. So it's like if you've got a share price going up and up and up, you want
• 9:07
  that earnings growth to keep growing and growing and growing because you're buying that stock because
• 9:12
  you expect it to grow in the future. So if more and more people are buying that stock,
• 9:16
  that's more and more people expecting it to grow in the future. There's a lot expected of it.
• 9:20
  So everyone was watching this result being like, okay, the share price is up 150% like they
• 9:25
  better deliver a fucking good result. Otherwise, people are going to be like, nah, growth is over. It's
• 9:30
  it's not going to grow as fast. I don't want to hold the stock anymore. And obviously a few people
• 9:34
  did that. Yeah, I almost would, I mean, God, me, not as if I know what I'm talking about. But I
• 9:40
  would almost argue like a lot of the time when you speak about stocks doing really well, the
• 9:44
  idea is it needs to have that forward-looking success. Could there just be an element of the fact
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  that people are starting to be like, you know what? Everyone's on board now. What is the chance
• 9:55
  that it's going to do this well again? Exactly. Probably pretty low. It might have nothing to do with
• 9:59
  their result, right? Like it could just be, okay, they're doing really well, but how much better could
• 10:03
  they do? Probably not as well as they already have. I guess with financial results, it's the time
• 10:07
  that the company reports news to the public. So it is a time to almost reflect, do I want to hold
• 10:14
  this? It gives, you've got now got like a whole bunch of new information about how this company's
• 10:18
  doing. So yeah, there would be people that are like, actually, it's done 150 percent. I'm actually
• 10:23
  stoked with that. I'm going to sell. Others going, reading the result, going, oh, actually,
• 10:27
  this company can continue to do well. I'm going to keep holding. So this is like the whole thing
• 10:31
  when you get news, people are digesting it really, really quickly, figuring out, should I hold it,
• 10:36
  should I sell it? And so yeah, you're right. This is why companies that have done this well in such
• 10:41
  a short space of time, scare me, because are you going to do 150 percent next year? I mean,
• 10:46
  I'm going to hold, you're going to hold me to this, but no, it just scares me. I would rather
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  something that consistently does like 10, 20 percent. It is slow. I'm just slow. I honestly think,
• 10:57
  when I'm feeling a bit more confident in my investing, I'm like, quite excited to almost like
• 11:03
  challenge what you think, because oh, just you wait, girl, I've got something coming later,
• 11:08
  which is no, but I guess it's more just it's really interesting, because I don't mean this in a
• 11:12
  roadway. It's just more than I learn, the more that I realize, like you are actually quite conservative
• 11:17
  with the way you invest, that you have a long to really long to view, which is so good. Oh, the
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  best and best is in the world. No, no, 100 percent. It's just so funny to see myself get like
• 11:28
  having an opinion on it, because I up until now would just take anything you say as gospel. Whereas
• 11:34
  for me, you know how you like that, you look at the video and you're like, oh, no, it scares me,
• 11:37
  whereas I'm like, it doesn't scare me. Like, it's still on it in the S&P 500. Yeah, you just
• 11:42
  wouldn't double down as a individual stop. If this financial result that it just reported, say it's
• 11:47
  revenue instead of 120 percent had come out at 50 percent, that stock I can guarantee you would have
• 11:53
  been off like probably 40, 40, 50 percent. It would have fallen that much, because people will be like,
• 11:59
  AI is not our future. This company is not going to be able to grow at the rate that we thought it was,
• 12:04
  which was like plus 100 percent. So that's why it's just like the moves away bigger when you're
• 12:10
  investing in high growth companies. So you've just got to be careful. But yeah, if you're holding
• 12:14
  it for the long term and you've got a whole lot of other companies that you own as well, then it can
• 12:18
  be a great addition to the portfolio. So this is a really good example as well. In the investing
• 12:23
  club, and I know it's been meant to talk about this because obviously not everyone's a part of it yet,
• 12:27
  but we have six stocks in there that we're discussing. One of them is Nike, and we were like,
• 12:32
  let's try bribe people because actually the idea of wanting to understand what other people think
• 12:38
  is so awesome. Like to hear what you think of a stock, what me, Emily, everyone thinks is like,
• 12:44
  it gives you way more context to make a decision as to what your opinion is. And so in the club at
• 12:50
  the moment, we're like, okay, $100 Nike voucher for everyone to just comment what you think on the
• 12:54
  Nike stock. So we did a big deep dive on it. And I honestly spent the whole morning reading comments
• 12:59
  and it's really cool. Yeah. I get so exciting to see it working because I think for so long,
• 13:04
  we've had these conversations in silo, right? Where it's like, you make these decisions without
• 13:08
  any idea really what other people are doing. And this lady posted a photo of her in the Nike store
• 13:13
  was quite cool. I was like, I love that. I know adding multi media to the chat. I actually
• 13:18
  went past a TK Max store. And I was like, which is one of the stocks in the industry. And I was like,
• 13:23
  oh my god. And then yeah, I didn't take a photo. Sorry. You should have. I know I was late to dinner,
• 13:27
  okay? Oh, yeah. Was this the other night? Yeah. That was weird from you. I was busy going over
• 13:34
  podcast questions on the bus and then just must must stop. Oh, yeah. Anyway, we also talk about AI
• 13:39
  actually in the investing club. We've got an expert in there who we've brought in to talk about
• 13:44
  all things AI. So yeah, if you're like, oh, god, I don't know if you want to invest in a video,
• 13:48
  or I just want to understand more about it during the club. At the moment, the club is a thousand
• 13:53
  people, but we're just trying to test and make sure everything all works fine before everyone
• 13:57
  else joins. So if you do want to be a part of it and you're not yet, we'll put a link in the show
• 14:02
  notes to join just the email community like our newsletter. And you'll find out when you can join.
• 14:06
  But there's all the stuff will still be available by the time you get into the club as well. It's
• 14:10
  not that you're missing out. Another stock I was looking at, which had quite a big move this week
• 14:16
  was PDD. So is this the one that Danny, our commercial director, has invested in? She was like,
• 14:22
  hasn't done that well. No, that was AMD. Oh, of course. What's actually not even close at all.
• 14:28
  PDD. What is it? So it's the parent company of Timo. Oh, you've invested in Timo. Yeah. Yeah.
• 14:34
  Like, what's it done? Oh, no, did not do well. Oh, damn. But you know, I'm not crying over
• 14:38
  spoke milk. It's fine. I didn't put a lot in it and be a own other stuff, which is doing well.
• 14:44
  So thank goodness. But yeah, it's down about 30%. Why? What was the result? Yeah, the result
• 14:51
  competition is increasing customer preferences or shifting. It's just not doing as well as people
• 14:56
  expected. And actually, like, Amazon's coming back pretty tough in terms of a competitor shine
• 15:02
  is also competing against Timo. There's a lot of low-cost, cheap brands you can buy. What's
• 15:10
  the Amazon doing that's like coming back, you know, all guns blazing? What are they doing?
• 15:15
  Because I think, yeah, I don't know. I'm like, I think I pay for Amazon Prime, which is like,
• 15:20
  the, what is that totally different company? No. Do you buy that much off Amazon? No, I just
• 15:27
  have a subscription. No, I just haven't canceled it, which is actually probably a really good reminder.
• 15:31
  And Alex Bruce as well, Alibaba. No. Yeah, there's honestly like, like, again, around. Yeah.
• 15:38
  Yeah. So there's just like a lot of competitors in this space wanting to increase the market share.
• 15:43
  And yeah, so they're kind of getting hurt, which is surprising because my personal shopping
• 15:48
  preferences, I just bought a whole lot of stuff off Timo in the weekend. What did you get?
• 15:51
  I'm a bit excited for a drive. Kind of stuff. I got a little mirror for my, like,
• 15:56
  dresser because I'm so sick of taking my makeup bag to my big mirror to do my get ready with me.
• 16:01
  Oh, yeah, of course. So how are you going? A little toothbrush holder because the house is quite gross.
• 16:08
  Oh, look, this is so funny. So you're decorating your house. Yeah. And then I bought like a fruit bowl.
• 16:13
  I want a fruit bowl. Yeah. I was thinking this morning, I need a fruit bowl. And then I bought a
• 16:16
  betzo table. And it's quite easy. So I was like, I'll just buy one, see if it like, and I like it.
• 16:21
  I'm really excited to see what you bought. Yeah, same. But anyway, so Timo, the parent company PDD.
• 16:27
  So I don't know if you remember a while ago, so if we spoke about how the richest person in China
• 16:32
  was now the PDD founder. Oh, yeah, yeah. And anyway, that only lasted about two weeks.
• 16:38
  Why? Because he's just lost 14 billion dollars. Because Timo's doing so bad. Because Timo's doing
• 16:43
  so bad. And so his percentage of PDD, the parent company is still the same, but the value of that
• 16:48
  has fallen because the share price has fallen. So sorry. I find it hard to understand that because
• 16:54
  you often say, you know, you're like, oh, they lost 14 billion dollars in a day, but it's only on
• 16:59
  paper. Yeah. Yeah. Because I don't imagine. Imagine if you could see that every day. I would,
• 17:04
  I'd be doing no work. I'd be seeing that go up and down and up and down and I'd be, yeah. Yeah,
• 17:09
  I guess I hadn't thought about it like that. But I feel like surely they've got so much money
• 17:13
  that they're not that stressed about. Yeah. I mean, even the dividend on that. I don't know if it
• 17:17
  pays a dividend, but if a company, if you own so many shares in a company, you get the dividend.
• 17:22
  You're not really concerned about the increase in the value as much. Question. Did you buy from Timo
• 17:27
  because you wanted to reinforce your stock pick idea and the fact they've invested in it?
• 17:33
  Or did you do your research and think these are my favorite things I've found and order them?
• 17:38
  To be honest, it kept targeting me. Yeah. I was looking at beds. I needed a bedside table and I was
• 17:42
  just like, I was like, oh, I've been trying to look for like the perfect one. And I had these
• 17:48
  ones at Timo that I was like looking at. And I was like, oh, I just need to buy something.
• 17:52
  I'm so sick of not having one. And then they kept spamming me. And I was like, okay, I'll do it.
• 17:57
  So it's just digital marketing. Yeah. Yeah. It got me at my weak point. It was a rainy Saturday.
• 18:02
  You know, I was like, okay, sure. Was it expensive? Like what price range are we talking for all that?
• 18:09
  Because I think all of that was £150. That's cheap. Yeah. For a bedside table, a mirror,
• 18:16
  a toothbrush holder, a little like jewellery holder, a bookshelf magazine holder and a desk organizer,
• 18:25
  which is, I mean, uses a fruit ball. That is incredible. Yeah. See, I would look at that and think,
• 18:31
  I don't, I'm free shipping. Yeah. Well, anyway, I'm divesting. You're going to leave. I'm going to
• 18:36
  leave it. Yeah. I mean, it's never got a huge ship. No. I mean, it's down 30% now. I'm like,
• 18:42
  cool. Time to buy. Yeah. If I go,
• 18:46
  me if I try something's down, I'm like, off I go for my sale. Yeah. Yeah. No, but it's true.
• 18:51
  It is on sale. I've written it in my Friday to do this by Timo. Also, do you get PMS? Yeah.
• 18:59
  Actually, no. No, I don't fucking get PMS. I honestly don't get to, you get PMS. I don't
• 19:05
  recognize. I do not know. Okay. No, you don't. No, you don't. That's not fair. I don't know.
• 19:09
  I get hungry ears. Like, but I think I lean into it too. Well, anyway, I have got the flow app
• 19:16
  and it has been game changing. This kind of sounds like a bit of an ad, but it's not.
• 19:21
  Honestly, but it also is a bit self-fulfilling. I could be like, you might have back pain today.
• 19:25
  I'm like, oh my god, I do. Or it's like, you might be in the mood for sex. I'm like, I am.
• 19:30
  Who's around? Who can I find? I can find eye contact.
• 19:35
  It's on this new thing where she's trying to give people more eye contact. And yeah,
• 19:38
  she was like, so, so, so. I looked lots of, I looked lots of people in the eye today. I'm like,
• 19:43
  good on you, babe. Like even like in a non-sexual scene. Yeah. And I tried to do it at
• 19:47
  dinner the other night. And I got so creeped out. And I was like, do you reckon he's getting creeped
• 19:52
  out because he was explaining things. And I was literally staring at him. And then he got so
• 19:56
  awkward. And I was like, oh my god, now I don't know where I used to look. Like, was it your mouth?
• 20:01
  Was it your like, I was like, oh, it was so. And then I wasn't even listening to what he was saying.
• 20:05
  So basically, the reason we're talking about this is because, and actually, we spoke about this
• 20:10
  in the office earlier in the week because there was news that came out about the flow app.
• 20:14
  It's now worth a billion dollars. Yeah. And I think the biggest thing that we were talking about
• 20:20
  is the fact that it was co-founded by two men. Yes. And I think which I'm just like,
• 20:28
  yeah. But I think this is a really good example of if we found more confident in business and
• 20:33
  money with the stock market, et cetera, we would have noticed that there was no technology helping
• 20:38
  women track their cycles. And we would have thought of this as an idea. But because a lot of us
• 20:42
  aren't confident enough to enter the business sphere, it's really great ideas like that that should
• 20:47
  be invented by women that aren't. Yeah. And I think it also comes down to like having the
• 20:52
  mental capacity to think about these things and actually having the time like, we do four and a
• 20:58
  half hours more unpaid work than men. Like, imagine if we were spending that on a side hustle or
• 21:03
  even like splitting that gender wise, like what we could achieve. I don't know, there's just like so
• 21:08
  many elements of this that frustrate me because it's like, and this is what plays into the stats
• 21:12
  around will only 2% of female founder businesses get funding. It's like because the money is going
• 21:20
  to people like this who started, you know, like it's just, I don't know. Yeah, it just really frustrates
• 21:24
  me. But anyway, yes, this business flow founded by two men. It now generates $200 million a year
• 21:31
  in revenue and it's UK business. And I kind of wanted to touch on the fact that it's got a
• 21:36
  valuation because it's a private company. And so the thing with public companies like NVIDIA,
• 21:42
  they're valued every day because people are transacting. And when there's a transaction that sets
• 21:46
  a value for the price of the business. So people are buying and selling all the time. The share price
• 21:50
  is moving. That essentially creates a value for the entire business. If the share price goes up,
• 21:56
  the value of the entire business goes up. If it goes down, the value of the entire business goes down.
• 22:00
  Whereas with private companies, there's not transactions all the time. So when there is, that's when
• 22:05
  the valuation is set. And so this was a private equity company investing in flow that then created
• 22:11
  that transaction and that price of a billion dollars. But I don't even know what else to say on
• 22:16
  this really. Just the fact that it started by two men. And it's a the world's largest period
• 22:22
  in fertility tracker is just like baffling. Yeah. I rode an article last week about our journey
• 22:29
  raising capital. And I know if you've listened to the episode we did with Danny, our new commercial
• 22:33
  director, which we put out a couple of weeks ago, we spoke a little bit about what that process
• 22:38
  was like. Because for us, it was like, we've never taken external capital before. It was the
• 22:44
  steepest learning curve ever. And I think it's just really important to share what that looked like
• 22:51
  and what we learned. And so I rode an article which we'll put up on our website. I'm not sure
• 22:56
  it's already there or not. But I think it's more just being a part of these conversations,
• 23:02
  opening up your curiosity and ears to listen to for potential either investing ideas to invest
• 23:07
  in companies or business ideas, like even walking hair this morning. This is such a weird thing
• 23:12
  to bring up. But I saw a woman on a line bike. And she was doing what I do whenever I'm in a dress
• 23:19
  or a skirt on a line bike, awkwardly trying to bike while holding her skirt down. So she's not
• 23:24
  flashing everyone. And I was I mean, this is a terrible business idea. But what went through my
• 23:29
  head was like, imagine if there was bikes where you could have almost like a cover so that it was
• 23:33
  way more comfortable for women to be honest so that people aren't sitting at your skirt when you
• 23:37
  bike. I mean, obviously it's not necessarily a great idea. But it's more the fact of changing
• 23:41
  your mindset to what is a problem that we encounter and what is a way that we could potentially
• 23:46
  solve that. And if you feel excited enough about an idea that is solving a problem, just remembering
• 23:52
  that it's you have such a unique view on the world when it comes to starting businesses or investing
• 23:57
  in businesses because we experience the world so differently. Our bodies, the way that we move
• 24:02
  through the world, we have hormones like, and we're half the population. So it's like if it's
• 24:06
  going to be solving a problem for you, it's probably going to be solving a problem for a lot of
• 24:09
  other women. Yeah. Yeah. That was like me at school. I did a young enterprise and I was like,
• 24:14
  what's a problem that needs solving? You're never any. So I think I am. There's just a goldfish
• 24:20
  story. It's worse. Can you give me a clue? So during that period, I think it was 15, 16. There was
• 24:27
  a lot of quad bikes getting stolen in New Zealand because they're expensive. And farmers, there was
• 24:33
  one case, a farmer came out and he shot the person that stole his bike. And we were like, perfect.
• 24:39
  Let's create a quad bike alarm that goes off of a quad bikes being moved genius. Yeah.
• 24:45
  It's amazing. I know if I'm like, so not, I'm a girl from the city and I haven't created this
• 24:50
  quad bike alarm. It's so clever. We were these like six private schoolgirls creating quad bike alarms
• 24:55
  We went to field days in Hamilton, which if anyone's been, it's like the farmer's like the
• 24:59
  fast and brief kind of thing. It did really well. And because it was solving a problem and like,
• 25:03
  yeah, in any way, we didn't go on to be a massive success because we all left school. But
• 25:09
  yeah, it's just like it was like looking, reading through the newspaper and being like,
• 25:12
  shit, this is a problem. Like how can we solve it kind of thing? And that's I think how all good
• 25:16
  businesses start like Uber. They were standing in the rain and they were like, imagine if we could
• 25:20
  just order a taxi on our phone, you know, like little things like that. So yeah. There's someone
• 25:25
  special, very close to you's birthday. I know. Was yours last week? Warren Buffett's today.
• 25:34
  You know, just all my favorite people, 94. Oh Warren. He's so great. Do you think you'll
• 25:42
  call your kid Warren? Maybe. Did I tell you I went to his AGM, his company's AGM. And your
• 25:48
  general meeting, which is like for shareholders, it's the one meeting a year they will update the
• 25:52
  shareholders. You can go and ask questions, right? And it's like the pilgrimage to where Warren Buffett
• 25:57
  lives in Nebraska. Also, sorry, if anyone's just listening to us for the first time and they're like,
• 26:02
  who the hell is Warren Buffett? He's one of the most famous investors in the world.
• 26:05
  Anyway, this person stood up and you put us to stand up and ask questions and he stood up and he's
• 26:09
  like, I love you so much, Warren. I'm named my child Warren. And I was like, oh, dear God,
• 26:15
  you know, we like, how did you waste a question on that? Sit down. Yeah, I don't think I
• 26:19
  comprehended the like scale of anyway. Yeah, I said, oh, God, my everyone's like, so anyway, yes,
• 26:24
  this is birthday. Happy birthday Warren. But for his birthday, his company, so his investment
• 26:30
  company, Berkshire Hathaway, has become the first US company outside of the technology sector.
• 26:36
  So it's not a tech company to join the $1 trillion club. So that means the value of that business
• 26:43
  is now a trillion dollars, which is, I can't even, I can't even comprehend a trillion dollars.
• 26:48
  What is a trillion? Is it a billion billions? It's another six zeros on a billion. It's like,
• 26:53
  it's incomprehensible. It's like, thank you about how many stars you're on the world. Yeah,
• 26:56
  and then when people are like, oh, it's like, if you put all $10 on notes on top of each other,
• 27:01
  would go to the moon. I'm like, that doesn't really help me. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 27:06
  But yes, this is all because the sheer price of Berkshire Hathaway has done super, super well.
• 27:10
  This year, it's added 200 billion this year alone. So it's done really, really well this year.
• 27:15
  The only other companies that are in the club, like I said, are tech companies. So you've
• 27:19
  got Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Teclar. He's a part of the magnificent
• 27:25
  seven now, which is, no, the magnificent seven, it always just like those seven. I don't know.
• 27:31
  Yeah, they're just like, what are those seven the trillion dollar clubs?
• 27:35
  Yes, yeah, sorry, they're the debt of trillion dollar clubs. Yeah, so I mean, he could be part of
• 27:38
  the magnificent eight now. It doesn't really have the same ring to it, but it does sound very
• 27:42
  much like captain planet. Well, it's a book, the magnificent seven. Is it? Yeah,
• 27:47
  it's a babysitter's club, you know, it was like, yeah, they'd get up to trouble and go exploring
• 27:53
  and stuff. So that's amazing though. Yeah, yeah. So the sheer price is up 30% this year, best year of
• 27:59
  performance since 2013. For Berkshire Hathaway, which is amazing. Do you think people are supporting him
• 28:04
  because his main guy, Charlie, is no longer here? Probably. Charlie Munger, his best friend. Yeah,
• 28:11
  I mean, you could ride him a little rather than buying stock. But maybe like the publicity of him
• 28:16
  not being here. Well, I'd be more concerned. It'd be like, okay, cool. One's gone.
• 28:21
  But we've got to somehow interview him or speak to someone. He took control of Berkshire Hathaway
• 28:29
  in 1965. The value of that company was 25 million. It's now one trillion. And he is worth
• 28:36
  150 billion dollars. It doesn't eat drive like a Toyota Yarris. It's always in the same house.
• 28:41
  It's got like barricades around it in Nebraska because he was like, oh, he's so cool.
• 28:47
  The shrine of the shrine. Yeah. Also, Burberry. So this poor company like, why is it not doing
• 28:54
  well? No, it's not doing well. All the other luxury companies are doing fantastic.
• 28:57
  Is it not, is it owned by anyone? Like, is it a part of, um,
• 29:00
  knowledge or it's like, it's its own public? Do you think that's why does it need to be a part of
• 29:04
  like, I just feel like sometimes creatively, they just kind of don't get it right. Um,
• 29:10
  and creative directors always move around different. What do they call houses and different brands
• 29:15
  and stuff? And they'll get poached by each other and they all, you know, have these creative
• 29:18
  flows. But I feel Berber is doing, I mean, I still feel like it's not a uncool brand. My friend
• 29:23
  in the weekend was wearing her brand new Burberry trench coat that she'd invested because it was like,
• 29:28
  she'd gotten a promotion, she was really excited to buy something that was like, get a last
• 29:32
  for a while and it looked beautiful. It was so cool. Very iconic British print,
• 29:37
  definitely. But anyway, it's been in the FTSE 100. So the, the UK's version of the S&P 500,
• 29:43
  which is the top 100 companies in the UK. It's been in that index for 15 years.
• 29:48
  And it dropped out. And it's just dropped out. Oh, no. It's the top 100 companies. And they
• 29:52
  keep your every three months, they rebalance and go, okay, which companies have done badly and
• 29:56
  have to go out, which companies have done well, have to come in. And yet it's been in there for 15
• 30:00
  years. And now it's come out. Oh, dear. Um, and then lastly, just something I'm winning with.
• 30:06
  You're winning with? Yeah. Oh, you are. I know exactly where you're going with this.
• 30:11
  So there was an article the New Zealand hero put out last week around the best performing
• 30:16
  Kiwisava fund. And which is your, okay, that's the New Zealand version of like the pension for
• 30:22
  one. Okay. Yeah. So, yeah. I want to get in the clutch line. So yes, there's a company called
• 30:28
  Morningstar, which tracks, it's like an independent company and it tracks all the Kiwisava providers,
• 30:33
  which the pension providers in New Zealand. And Milford Kiwisava Active Growth Fund, which is where my
• 30:39
  Kiwisava is, was the best performing fund. Can we still get into that if we want to? Yeah,
• 30:44
  it's not like closed off or something. For some reason, I feel like I tried once money in,
• 30:49
  no, I don't think you can't close a Kiwisava fund because I'm contributing money all the time to
• 30:53
  it, if that makes sense. No, but I'm pretty sure there's one at Milford. The Active Growth,
• 30:56
  there's like a non-Kuisava version. Yeah. But anyway, it's delivered nearly 12% per year since it started,
• 31:04
  which is like nearly 15 years ago. Can I ask if you are wanting to swap Kiwisava,
• 31:09
  I just hyperthetically, I'm asking for a friend. If you wanted to swap, is it kind of similar to
• 31:14
  buying and selling a house in the same environment, where if you take it out of your Kiwisava and put
• 31:18
  it in somewhere else straight away? You can't take it out. Do you know what I mean?
• 31:23
  Yeah, but I guess my point is, is there like a good or bad time to move? No, I think the trade-off
• 31:29
  of you staying with a bad one to try and time a bit the best moment you could miss out on.
• 31:36
  But what would be a best moment? Hypothetically, when it's really high, basically, because you're
• 31:41
  taking out as much as you can, is that the point? You're buying and selling the same market, so you
• 31:45
  can't take it out and put in cash. Yes, but I mean as when you're like, oh, if you were to wait
• 31:51
  for a better time, what would be the perfect time is that when it's doing really well? I don't
• 31:56
  think there's a bit, I think it's more if you want to swap, swap. Don't sit around in a bad
• 32:02
  Kiwisava waiting for, say, prices to go up because you want that to get a better price when you sell
• 32:08
  because you might miss out on the other fund that you were planning to go into, it's doing really
• 32:12
  well and you've missed out on that. So it's like, just don't overcomplicate it. If you find a good
• 32:17
  fund, you want to change or you realize, oh, shit, I'm actually only getting 4% a year and I can
• 32:21
  take some more, sorry, I should be in a higher returning fund, just do it. Don't wait around
• 32:26
  because you can't take your superannuation or your Kiwisava money out. You have to go from one
• 32:32
  fund to the other, you have to swap. And if you don't know where it is, that's absolutely no worries
• 32:36
  either. You just can go to the new, the new one that you want to choose and say, hey, I want to
• 32:41
  join you now and they go find it for you. So a lot of people are like, put it on where it is,
• 32:45
  it's fine. Anyway, your Kiwisava fund is actually doing really well. Mine. Yeah. Yes. Your Kiwisava
• 32:51
  fund has done 10.6% per year. So nearly 11% return since it started. So that's quite, quite good.
• 32:58
  I find it. Yeah. That is a really good return. Like, that's better than the stock market average
• 33:04
  return. So that's really good. And you're paying a 1.3% fee. So that's after fees. So you're actually
• 33:09
  getting 10.6 plus 1.3, but you're just paying away, but as a fee. So that's fine. You're on track
• 33:16
  to have about 1.3 million at retirement. Why are you laughing? Is yours like 17 or something?
• 33:22
  What's yours? The mine is nearly 12% return per year. Wait, but what is that in retirement?
• 33:26
  About 1.8 million. So over 500,000 more than you. But this is the thing. I'll rob you a problem.
• 33:35
  The difference of your plants. The difference of like literally 1% doesn't seem like much.
• 33:41
  Like 1% difference in return on our Kiwisava funds. You're like, yeah, semantics.
• 33:46
  Over 30 years. That's nearly half a million dollars. So it's just really, really important.
• 33:52
  I'm not telling people to go and change, but it's like, just be aware. If you're in like a 4,
• 33:57
  5, 6% and you've got, that could be a shitload. 30 years to retirement, even 20 years to retirement.
• 34:02
  Like, that can make a huge difference on your retirement portfolio.
• 34:08
  Do we need a holiday fund?
• 34:09
  We need a holiday fund, yeah. But don't worry, I'll share that 500,000 with you.
• 34:13
  But the only thing what I would say is, the reason I went to path fund is because I like
• 34:18
  they're super ethical. They don't invest in a whole lot of oil and gas.
• 34:21
  Yeah. I'm imagining they'll put probably does.
• 34:24
  No, they've got, definitely got restrictions on what they can and can't invest in.
• 34:29
  Yeah, I mean, they're probably not investing in like the really, really, really bad stuff, but
• 34:33
  yeah, I'd rather take that 500,000.
• 34:36
  Interesting.
• 34:37
  And put it into companies that I choose.
• 34:39
  Well, so see, that's an interesting point, which we could go on and on and on,
• 34:42
  free for about which we're not going to.
• 34:44
  But don't you think that's a predicament?
• 34:45
  But can I just say, do you invest in bad companies to take the money out to
• 34:49
  invest in good companies, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah?
• 34:52
  Are you proud that we can even have this conversation?
• 34:54
  Yeah.
• 34:54
  Because back in the day, I was just like,
• 34:56
  who's ever what you think?
• 34:58
  And now I'm like kind of like coming back at you like, I've got some thoughts on that.
• 35:01
  No, it is good.
• 35:03
  Okay, see you, bye.
• 35:04
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• 35:06
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• 35:08
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• 35:32
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• 35:35
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• 35:40
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• 35:42
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