Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Has the Market Crash STARTED? Do THIS Now! + Stock Market News 25 July 2024

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Felix Prehn - Has the Market Crash STARTED? Do THIS Now! + Stock Market News 25 July 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It does work better with sound, doesn't it?
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Your lip reading skills are not quite up to scratch yet.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, all right, let's start that again then.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Good morning to you.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: And it's very loud now, isn't it as well?
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: That never happened before.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Very odd.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: What's going on with YouTube the last few days?
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Anyway, after a horrendous day in the markets yesterday, things are looking a little bit better today, despite miserable news coming little bit better today, despite miserable news coming out of Europe today, which is this here Nestle, stellantis, the car guys caring luxury people, all reporting disappointing earnings and Universal Music Group dropping 30%, ford's down 12% and sounds back.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Yes, it is the Achilles heel of recording.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know, for some reason sounds the most challenging thing, although this little thing here, that little thing here, is magic.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: It's kind of the solution of it all.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: So if you could buy shares in Rode microphones, I probably would Now, as we got the excitement out of the way.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: 4% down, I'd say 12%.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: We made money again yesterday, not a lot, but a little bit.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: You can see it on the chart here.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know 500 bucks or something.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: There we go why.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: We took profits on a trade.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: I'll show you that trade in just a moment, but it means we're now up very close to $25,000.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: This is a $30,000 teaching portfolio, so we're up about 80% so far this year.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Not too shabby, right?
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: People that are coming, learn that with us.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Come and learn us with us.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Come and learn us.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: English fails me as well today, as does the sound.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Head over to phoenixfrontsorg.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Slash training links down below and join the live coding session next week at, I want to say, 8 pm Eastern time.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that's what it is.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: This is the trade we closed.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: What is this?
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: This is the VIX, the fear index, and I set up that trade.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Because I'll actually explain to you just in a second why I set up that trade and I set up the trade somewhere here.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: That's where I entered and this is where I just exited, somewhere here.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: That's where I entered and this is where I just exited.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: And yeah, it might go higher.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Do I care?
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: No, why.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Real profits are real profits.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Realized profits are realized profits.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: It's about the right sort of jump.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: If you look at the amount that we shoot up by typically, it's about right.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: So I never aim to maximize, I just want real profits and that's.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: You've got to combat the greed as an investor and as a trader, so profits are good.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: That's what we just did.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Could it go higher?
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it could.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I typically think it zigs and zags.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: I think it might come down a bit and we probably set up the same thing again, for the following reasons.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'll tell you in a second.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I've got another chart here.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: This is, I think, a little bit more what I'm actually worried about.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: And what is this?
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: In orange, we've got Russell, so IWM, which is the ETF for the Russell small caps, and then in green, green green, which we could do with more of today.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Are the who said green, please green, faang stocks and with a double A.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: And what are you seeing?
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: You're seeing that people are selling the FAANG stocks and at the same time, people are buying small caps, and at the moment, this is still a bit of a hedge fund theme.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: The concern is, if we get more disappointing big stock, big cap earnings, then, seriously, ads are back.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Okay, I will send another screenshot to my now best pen friend at YouTube.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: So super annoying.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Apologies for that, guys.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: They are saying they're going to find a solution to it.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: I have no ads on, so I don't know why it does it, but for some reason it does it, so I will get that Anyway.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: So the concern is that if big tech earnings disappoint a little, the hedge funds will sell big tech and they'll buy small caps, and that's something to bear in mind.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: That's something we might want to circle back to in a moment.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Feel free to ask questions on that as well.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Now, deutsche Bank we've collapsed catastrophically because it's one of the world's worst banks, in my opinion.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: They are saying that we're quite stretched.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: So what does this say?
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: This basically says when you are above here, you are stretched, as in overbought, everybody's buying the same thing, and when you're down here, you know you're oversold.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: So right now we're kind of approaching that stretch zone.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: So that's something to to in mind.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: But this is actually probably the most important bit of data I'm going to give you today.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: You might want to take a screenshot or even write this down.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Ctas are algo-driven funds that buy on their own, without human intervention, and they simply trade certain technical points, certain things on a chart NASDAQ, ndx is NASDAQ.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Their threshold level to sell is 19,608.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Now where are we trading right now?
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Ndx, that one.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: We're trading at 19,032.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: So we've dropped below the 19608 level which was about there.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: That was approximately I'll do that exactly 19608.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: That was sell order for CTAs there in purple.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: It means there is sales pressure.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: So even if nothing bad happens, there's still sales pressure and that isn't good and that's why right now we're trading at pretty much exactly the bottom of yesterday's trading range, right?
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: So not brilliant.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Now for the S&P, that threshold was 5,472.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: And this really matters, and I'll tell you just how much this matters 5,472.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: So 5,472.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Below there the computer sell.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: We're significantly below there.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: So's not brilliant and that's something to be a little bit concerned by.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: They then say we model US systematic sellers in all scenarios over the next week in a flat up or down tape.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: The market does nothing.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: It goes up or it goes down.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: The algo funds will start, will sell, no matter what happens, and they'll sell quite a lot.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: In theory they could sell like but close to $200 billion.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: So it's a little bit, it's a little concerning, that's what I'm saying.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: But there is some optimism out there, my friends.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: There's always.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Optimism isn't there.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Where there is hope, there is optimism and of course we can make money if the market goes down.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: It's actually in many ways easier to make money when the market's going down.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: What is the thing that's saving us?
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Durable goods orders are down 6.6%.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Now what are durable goods?
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Bridges, cars, that sort of thing, machinery washing machines, tumble dryers, that kind of thing, machinery washing machines, you know tumble dryers, that kind of stuff, really golden retrievers are quite durable.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they fall into the category of goods and we're expecting them to have been going up slightly.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: So why is that good news?
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Isn't that terrible news?
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: It's good news because it says to the Fed guys, you're late to cutting rates, you better get cutting.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Jobless claims are basically flat.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: No one cares about the number anyway.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: It's too manipulated.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: And consumer spending is also pretty flattish compared to what we were expecting.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Now it gets worse than the 6.6 percent collapse because, again, that's government data.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: If you look underneath the government data, you see a very, very, very, very, very, very different picture.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: You've got in green here, which is ironic capital goods, defense spending, and that's up six percent.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: And then you've got in blue non-defense spending, and that's you buying fridges and cars and so on, and that, my friends, is down minus 22%.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: So durable goods orders if you strip out the war effort, then it is down 22%.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: That's pretty horrible stuff and that should be a big, big incentive for Papa Jerome Powell to turn on the money printer and start cutting interest rates.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: The money printer and start cutting interest rates.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Gold and the tree was all the best on there.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Clap my dog About saying what's the source for the CTAs.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: It usually comes from either from Bank of America or Goldman Sachs.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: I didn't write down the source.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: That's just why I was stumbling there, just because I wanted to tell you.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: But it's either one of those they report it about twice a week or something like that, and I always share it with you.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: And there is more bad news.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: That's actually good news.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Credit cards balances that are now 90 days overdue are really going up and if you account the 30 days and the 60 days overdue, it's now 8% of credit cards that are overdue.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: That's the worst we've had since 2012.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: It's also pretty bad, and I remember talking about this last year.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: I was walking through Tokyo and I was doing a video walking on the pavement, so I was just reading the data on this and that's exactly what I said that it's going up and we should be concerned about it and that this is one of the reasons we're going to get rate cuts sooner or later.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: It turned out it was rather later than sooner, because that was last November I think, but I'm literally planning a Tokyo trip as we speak, so it might be full circle.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: So, again, bad news, but it's actually good news for the market, as we're going to get rate cuts and that's why I'm confident that we're going to keep making money.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: So, as I said, we are up $24,000 on our $30,000 teaching portfolio so far this year, which is a glorious 80%, and of course, all credit for that goes to Winston, my golden retriever, who has a very simple three-step trading system.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: If you want to learn that system, our entire rules and see the whole thing, come and join us at FelixFrenzelorg slash training and I'll walk you through that.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Now I also want to take you one level further, into the darkest depths of finance, because I think you deserve it.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: So let's go down the mineshaft.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: I've got open here tradingviewio, which is a platform that we built in our building, and it's going to get so much better.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: We just had a call on it today.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Very exciting stuff coming up in the next couple of days and in the next weeks, but it shows you not just the stock chart that you are probably used to looking at which is you know stock chart and it says, yeah, looking at which is you know stock chart?
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: And it says, yeah, obviously we've gone down a fair bit.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: But it shows you here support and resistance.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: And our support level was that red bar there at 545.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: And we're well below that.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: And then the next support really starts kicking in here at 535 and 530.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: This is on SPY, and then 510 down there.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: But when you are down below your key support it's not really brilliant, that's all I'm saying.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: It's not really brilliant and typically it doesn't have to, but typically it encourages more selling.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: So I'm a little you know we're right on the 50-day moving average line here.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: We're right on that.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: So where we are right now, 541 is basically where you want to close above 542 today.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: If you do that, we're stabilized.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: We drop below that.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: I think we might visit a fair bit lower, and that applies particularly to the more volatile stocks that are dragging us down here, like Tesla.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Let me zoom out here on Tesla Chart fix.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: It's promised today, maybe it'll come tomorrow.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to over-promise there, but the Zoom thing will apparently be fixed.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: So where is our support for the week 210, 200, still there, right.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: We're trading at 216 right now, a little bit higher than yesterday's close, still above the 50-day moving average line.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: That's somewhat positive.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: We go into August.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Support moves down to 200 here.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: So a little bit of caution.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: I still think it's a little too early to call the bottom of the market there.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: I would wait an extra day.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I would just wait an extra day.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: There's no harm in buying a dollar or two or five higher, but it does feel horrible if you buy and it drops 20 bucks right.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: So I'm always a little bit intentionally late to the party, and that's how we make money.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: That's really what it's all about.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Are you buying the NVIDIA DIP2?
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: You know what?
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: I think I probably will, but not quite yet.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: And the reason for that is similar to the Tesla chart in that you know we had a pretty severe drop here.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: We're below the support of 120 and 115 here, so I'm going to wait for consolidation.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: We're below the 50-day moving average line.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Those are all kind of warning signs.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: When's the earnings date?
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: It's ages away, end of August, so we've got a little bit of time there.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: But yeah, don't be early to the party.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Don't let the greed, the FOMO, kick in, because that's what costs you money.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: This is our July so far in terms of trades.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: I'm an exceptionally lazy trader, probably the laziest trader I know.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: We've done 6, 11, 7, 2.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: They're actually double counting most of them because most of my trades have two parts to it, so there's actually only one trade.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: But even if you count it like this, 17, what is that?
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: 23, 25 trades In reality.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: Like this 17,.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: What is that?
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: 23, 25 trades In reality.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Probably more like 12 trades.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: We're up 10K so far on the 30K portfolio.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Not too bad right.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: So come and learn with us how we do that.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: If you're interested to make your money work harder for you potentially, then head over to phoenixfrontscom training and join us next week.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: So fashion relates to the party.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Yes, not polite in society, but in the market it's very, very polite.