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The mysterious death of Iran’s brutal president · The Front

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  Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, May twenty one. A convicted sex offender will
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: walk three years before his prison sentence was due to end,
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  Speaker 1: and it's all because of an error by act authorities.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Victims of Stephen Leonard Mitchell say the Office of the
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Director of Public Prosecutions was warned about the child's sex
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  Speaker 1: offender's bungled plea deal, but they were too preoccupied by
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: the rape trial of former Liberal staffer Bruce Lahman to
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  Speaker 1: fix it. You can read that story exclusively at The
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  Speaker 1: Australian dot com dot U Labor wants to slash the
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  Speaker 1: superannuation of federal judges, but barristers and legal experts say
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  Speaker 1: the new legislation could compromise the judiciary's independence and push
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  Speaker 1: judges to state courts in search of better pay. Iran's
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  Speaker 1: hardline Islamic regime has suffered a major blow after President
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  Speaker 1: Ebrahim Raci was killed in a helicopter crash on Sunday night.
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  Speaker 1: That's the assessment of The Australian's chief international correspondent, Cameron Stewart.
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  Speaker 1: In today's episode, Cam unpacks what Race's death means for
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  Speaker 1: the region, and why conspiracy theories are blossoming. One of
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  Speaker 1: the oldest civilizations on Earth, a society glittering with knowledge
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  Speaker 1: and sophistication, a brutally repressive regime with ambitions to change
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  Speaker 1: the world.
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  Speaker 2: Here for seven minutes, saying comnuncations again, do what you
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  Speaker 2: have to do.
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  Speaker 1: Iran is one of the most mysterious and intriguing places
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  Speaker 1: on Earth, ruled by men who've vowed to destroy Western civilization.
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  Speaker 1: No wonder it's inspired a legion of espionage thrillers, like
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  Speaker 1: the Apple TV series Tehran, which follows a wildly beautiful
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  Speaker 1: young agent of the Israeli spy agency Mossad as she
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  Speaker 1: infiltrates Iran in the attempt to destroy its nuclear program.
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  Speaker 1: Mosart sent me to Tehran on a mission, but then
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  Speaker 1: everything went wrong. We have to go. That's why when
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  Speaker 1: on Sunday night a helicopter carrying Iran's president and foreign
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  Speaker 1: minister went down, thoughts immediately ran to conspiracy. Was this
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  Speaker 1: an assassination? This opone? We need to stop him called.
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  Speaker 1: In Iran's spectacularly beautiful northwest, the rugged mountains give way
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  Speaker 1: to expansive plains when the weather turns those peaks are
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  Speaker 1: covered in thick, heavy fog, and it was into this
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  Speaker 1: fog that the chopper carrying President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign
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  Speaker 1: Minister Hassin Emir Abdola Jam vanished.
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  Speaker 3: We know that President Ibrahim Raisi was returning to Iran
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  Speaker 3: from a trip to Azerbaijan, where he was inspecting infrastructure
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  Speaker 3: projects when his helicopter crashed in what we've been told
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  Speaker 3: is quite mountainous terrain in a remote part of Iran.
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  Speaker 1: A large scale rescue operations sprang into action, with dogs
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  Speaker 1: and drones to search the areas too dark, too dangerous,
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  Speaker 1: or too difficult for humans to traverse. On Monday, the
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  Speaker 1: chief of Iran's Red Crescent humanitarian organization said the chopper,
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  Speaker 1: which had evaded detection for hours, had been found, but
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  Speaker 1: the situation was not good. I'm joined by the Australian's
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  Speaker 1: chief international correspondent, Cameron Stewart. We're speaking on Monday afternoon,
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  Speaker 1: and this situation is very fluid. Kem, who is Ebrahim Raisi?
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  Speaker 1: What does the president do in Iran?
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  Speaker 2: Claire? The President in Iran is the second most powerful
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  Speaker 2: person in that country. He is subordinate only to the
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  Speaker 2: so called Supreme leader that is Iatola Kamani and ioler.
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  Speaker 2: Kamani sets the parameters of what happens in Iran, the
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  Speaker 2: military policy, political policy, social policy, theocratic policy, etc.
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  Speaker 1: Etc.
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  Speaker 2: And he is appointed by clerics. He's not a popularly
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  Speaker 2: appointed leader, and so it's an authoritarian country. The president
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  Speaker 2: is elected by the public, but they're considered widely to
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  Speaker 2: be sham elections. So therefore the Ayatola, who is a
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  Speaker 2: very conservative religious hardliner, only chooses as his president a
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: conservative religious hardliners, which is precisely what President Raci was.
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  Speaker 1: As we began speaking, Iranian rescuers announced that they'd found
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  Speaker 1: the wreckage of the helicopter, but no sign so far
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  Speaker 1: of any survivors. What's the context of this in terms
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  Speaker 1: of Iran's capability? Would they have top of the range
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  Speaker 1: helicopters that could fly safely in folly conditions like the
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  Speaker 1: ones that are being reported out of Iran.
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  Speaker 2: Iran has very old equipment in lots of areas, and
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  Speaker 2: surprisingly this helicopter was actually quite old. It's a very
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  Speaker 2: old helicopter. It's one you'd be quite surprised, Frankur that
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  Speaker 2: they put in the president and the foreign minister and
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  Speaker 2: very important officials into it remains to be seen, of course,
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  Speaker 2: the exact cause of the crash. We've seen the vision
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  Speaker 2: and footage, and certainly the weather is very bad. There's
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  Speaker 2: lots of fog and it seems to initially be being
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  Speaker 2: blamed on bad weather. But of course with this sort
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  Speaker 2: of thing, especially with Iran's circumstance at the moment in
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  Speaker 2: the Middle East and the war that we've got with
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  Speaker 2: Hamas Israel, Claire, there will be a lot of conspiracy
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  Speaker 2: thews which you're always already bouncing around the internet.
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  Speaker 1: Let's dive right into those conspiracy theories then, Camp, Why
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  Speaker 1: would Israel be involved in this in any way?
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  Speaker 2: Look Iran and Israel that the long term enmity between
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  Speaker 2: the two countries has really peaked, Claire since the Hamas
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  Speaker 2: Israel conflicts, which began, of course on October seven, and
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  Speaker 2: it is becoming more and more tense. Iran has authorized
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  Speaker 2: its proxies like Espala in Lebanon and also its proxies
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  Speaker 2: in Syria and Iraq to launch short term attacks on
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  Speaker 2: Israel through missiles, et cetera. But last month it really
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  Speaker 2: became extremely heated when Iran launched its first ever direct
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  Speaker 2: attack on Israel hundreds of drones and missiles it fired
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  Speaker 2: towards Israel in retaliation for an Israeli attack on its
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  Speaker 2: forces based in Syria. Now, while that attack was very unsuccessful,
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  Speaker 2: they were all but a handful were actually shot down
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  Speaker 2: by the Israelis before they got to Israel. That was
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  Speaker 2: a real turning point in Iran is Iran's history to
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  Speaker 2: actually make a direct attack on Israel, and I think
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  Speaker 2: that really underlines how under President Raisi and this Islamic regime,
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  Speaker 2: Iran has hardened its position on Israel.
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  Speaker 1: Cam One of the other conspiracy theories is that this
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  Speaker 1: is about the power plays within Iran itself. As you
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  Speaker 1: told us, the supreme leader of Iran is a religious figure,
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  Speaker 1: the Iola Ali Kamena. What are the prospects that with
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  Speaker 1: the apparent death of President Raysi that things changed significantly
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  Speaker 1: in Iran?
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  Speaker 2: There will certainly be a lot of people outside Iran,
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  Speaker 2: Claire who will hope that this will lead to some
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  Speaker 2: form of change. It will certainly lead to a power
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  Speaker 2: struggle within the ruling elite over who actually replaces him.
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  Speaker 2: As presidents under Iranian law, there'll be elections within about
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  Speaker 2: fifty days for a new president, but these elections are
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  Speaker 2: widely considered to be rigged, so it's most likely the
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  Speaker 2: Supreme Leader will choose to a degree who that candidate
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  Speaker 2: might be. But even so, there will be some tensions
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  Speaker 2: within this elite between more liberal forces and the hardliners
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  Speaker 2: as well, and that will be fascinating to see how
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  Speaker 2: that plays out. Whether we actually see any visibility of
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  Speaker 2: those tensions, it's not at all certain that we would,
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  Speaker 2: because things are very much a closed chop in Iran
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  Speaker 2: at that high level. But certainly opponents of Iran's Islamic
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  Speaker 2: clerical system will be hoping that this will lead to
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  Speaker 2: some sort of greater liberalization among the ruling elite. But
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  Speaker 2: I think that is probably a fairly optimistic assumption.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up what raises death means for Iran's many proxy militias.
• 9:00
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• 9:02
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• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Check us out at the Australian dot com dot ay
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: and we'll be back after this break. According to State
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  Speaker 1: TV Iran's Supreme leader, Ayatola Ali Khamane, commented publicly on
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  Speaker 1: the helicopter crash that killed President racy late on Sunday.
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  Speaker 1: He said, the nation of Iran should not be worried
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  Speaker 1: and anxious. No disruption will occur in the country's affairs.
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  Speaker 1: Thousands of people, mostly men, took to the streets of
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  Speaker 1: the Iranian capital Tehran on Sunday night to pray for
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  Speaker 1: Racey and his fellow travelers. You Under President Raci, Iran
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  Speaker 1: has hardened its treatment of Iranians too, particularly women. There
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: have been reports of a serious crackdown on rules like
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  Speaker 1: women wearing hit jobs in public. There have been women
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  Speaker 1: who have disappeared from the streets of Iran after being
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  Speaker 1: photographed not wearing head coverings. In those terms, Cam who
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  Speaker 1: is Ebrahim Rayci? Is he a hardline conservative?
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  Speaker 2: He's a very hardline conservative, So RIALSI. He was the
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  Speaker 2: guy who was basically authorizing that crackdown, and more than
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  Speaker 2: five hundred people died in that terrible street violence that
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  Speaker 2: we saw and pression that occurred towards those protesters. So
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  Speaker 2: I think his death will certainly not be mourned by
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  Speaker 2: a lot of younger Iranians. There's an inherent tension in
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  Speaker 2: Iran today between younger Iranians who love Western clothes, want
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  Speaker 2: a more western lifestyle, want greater freedoms, and the old
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  Speaker 2: Islamic mullers, the ruling elites. Basically, and Rasi represented absolutely
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  Speaker 2: the old style Islamic hardliner, so there will be no
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  Speaker 2: mourning of him from many younger Iranians.
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  Speaker 1: Instability in Iran is obviously a big story for the
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  Speaker 1: whole region and for the world, because Iran controls or
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  Speaker 1: has influence over militias in a whole lot of countries,
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  Speaker 1: from Yemen to Lebanon, to Syria to Iraq. Can we
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  Speaker 1: talk about some of those, for example, in Yemen, that's
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  Speaker 1: where the Huti rebels are based, who have been attacking
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  Speaker 1: shipping in the Red Sea. What do you think his
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  Speaker 1: death will mean for those Iranian proxy forces throughout the
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  Speaker 1: Middle East?
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  Speaker 2: Well, this is probably the most important single question I
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  Speaker 2: think to arise from his death because since the October
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  Speaker 2: seven Israeli Hamas conflict, Iran has played a very curious
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  Speaker 2: role in the sense that it's encouraged its terror proxies
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  Speaker 2: in the region like hes Bollah, and also its proxies
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  Speaker 2: in Iraq and Syria to attack Israel, and in fact
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  Speaker 2: US forces in the region too, but also, as far
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  Speaker 2: as has Bler's concerned, to attack Israel in such a
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  Speaker 2: manner as to really distract Israel, but not actually in
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  Speaker 2: such large degree as to create a larger conflict. So,
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  Speaker 2: in fact, Iran had quite a finely balanced policy of
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  Speaker 2: provoking Israel since October seven with its proxies in the
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  Speaker 2: region without triggering an actual war. Now that is a
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  Speaker 2: deliberate and finally balanced policy coming out of Terehran, coming
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  Speaker 2: out of the Islamic regime there. Now, whether President Raysi's
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  Speaker 2: death will change that balance is a critical question for
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  Speaker 2: the region.
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  Speaker 1: Is there a possibility that this makes everything worse in
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  Speaker 1: the Middle East, that it escalates tensions.
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  Speaker 2: Look, if it were able to be proved or shown
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  Speaker 2: that in fact the crash was a sabotage, I think
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  Speaker 2: that would be a very dangerous situation for the region
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  Speaker 2: if the Islamic regime chose to blame Israel or the
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  Speaker 2: US or a Western country, because that would really ratchet
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  Speaker 2: up the tensions enormously at a time when tensions are
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  Speaker 2: already massive over the Israeli Hamas conflict over the constant
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  Speaker 2: bombing of northern Israel by Hezbollah and the instability on
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  Speaker 2: the West Bank and with the Huthis in Yemen. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: the whole Middle East isn't a tinderbox really, and I
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  Speaker 2: just think that if there was a confirmation that this
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  Speaker 2: was an act of sabotage, that would be a very
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  Speaker 2: dangerous position for the region.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent. To read
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: the latest updates, all mist developing story and for all
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: the nation's best journalism, is it the Australian dot com
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: dot a you