Latest / The House Never Wins / Super Bowl LXI Predictions | La Casa No Gana Episode #102

Transcript

Super Bowl LXI Predictions | La Casa No Gana Episode #102 · The House Never Wins

• 0:00
  - Stuff's overs. Nobody wants to bet on their
• 0:03
  - favorite team to disappoint.
• 0:05
  - Hello, guys. Welcome back to La Casa Nogana,
• 0:09
  - the NFL season. It's coming. And today, we
• 0:12
  - are not talking about spreads. We are not
• 0:14
  - talking Sunday money lines. No. We're not talking
• 0:17
  - player props.
• 0:19
  - Today, we're doing
• 0:21
  - long.
• 0:23
  - I'm gonna say, Bobby, not long. Very long
• 0:25
  - because we are talking about bets that might
• 0:29
  - take five months to cash.
• 0:32
  - That's right, Pau. Today we're talking NFL future,
• 0:35
  - division winners, conference winners,
• 0:38
  - win totals,
• 0:39
  - and Super Bowl futures. And we're looking at
• 0:43
  - of them through one question,
• 0:46
  - pal. Public money or sharp money?
• 0:50
  - Okay. Because there's a huge difference, Zoe, between
• 0:53
  - betting on a team you like and betting
• 0:56
  - on a price you think is wrong.
• 0:59
  - Exactly.
• 1:00
  - And that's the entire point of today's episode.
• 1:04
  - We are not trying to figure
• 1:06
  - figure out which teams are going to be
• 1:09
  - good. No. Everybody can do that. We are
• 1:12
  - trying to figure out where the market
• 1:15
  - might
• 1:16
  - be wrong.
• 1:17
  - So let's get started with money versus sharp
• 1:20
  - money.
• 1:21
  - Pabbie, let's define this first. So what exactly
• 1:25
  - do we mean by public money?
• 1:28
  - Okay. Public money usually follows the teams everybody
• 1:31
  - knows.
• 1:32
  - The big cutter back, the biggest franchise, the
• 1:35
  - teams that are constantly on television,
• 1:38
  - the teams that have a huge fan base
• 1:41
  - and especially the teams with a strong narrative
• 1:45
  - bow.
• 1:46
  - Exactly, Fabi. You hear? Josh Allen is going
• 1:49
  - to win MVP.
• 1:51
  - Mahomes
• 1:52
  - is going to make another run.
• 1:55
  - These Ravens
• 1:56
  - are loaded.
• 1:57
  - Buffalo is winning the AFC.
• 2:00
  - That's public thinking.
• 2:03
  - And there's nothing inherently wrong with that. That's
• 2:06
  - important. The public money doesn't automatically mean bad
• 2:09
  - money. No. It means the market, it's getting
• 2:13
  - a lot of attention from reactional bettors.
• 2:17
  - The problem, it's when the popularity
• 2:19
  - of that team
• 2:21
  - push the price
• 2:23
  - too far.
• 2:24
  - Yes, Bobby. And that's where sharp money becomes
• 2:27
  - interesting.
• 2:28
  - A sharp bettor isn't necessary
• 2:30
  - asking, for example, who's the best team? Oh,
• 2:33
  - they're asking,
• 2:35
  - is this price wrong?
• 2:38
  - That's the difference.
• 2:39
  - The public
• 2:40
  - bets the team.
• 2:42
  - The sharp
• 2:44
  - bets the number. Now, segment number two,
• 2:48
  - game time, pow. So let's make this fun,
• 2:51
  - very fun. We are going to play a
• 2:53
  - game. A game I gave you, a futures
• 2:56
  - bet, and you tell me,
• 2:59
  - public money or sharp money? Are you ready,
• 3:02
  - Pau? Yes. I love it. Let's go.
• 3:05
  - Okay.
• 3:07
  - And you're not allowed to overthink in it,
• 3:09
  - Pau.
• 3:10
  - Okay. Okay. It's dangerous, but that's okay.
• 3:14
  - Okay. Exactly what I like it. Now, bed
• 3:16
  - number one,
• 3:17
  - bills
• 3:18
  - over their win total.
• 3:21
  - Buffalo Bills over the project win total. Public
• 3:24
  - or sharp?
• 3:25
  - Public, Fabi.
• 3:27
  - Immediately. Yes. Immediately.
• 3:29
  - And look at the profile. Josh Allen, a
• 3:32
  - team that has been consistently competitive.
• 3:34
  - A fan base that expects another playoff
• 3:38
  - run, and the Bills are always part of
• 3:40
  - the Super Bowl conversation. So that's exactly the
• 3:44
  - kind of team recreational
• 3:46
  - bettors want to back before the season starts,
• 3:48
  - Fabi.
• 3:50
  - But here's the trap, Pau. Here's the trap.
• 3:52
  - Okay. You might be right about Buffalo. You
• 3:54
  - might be right about Buffalo, but they might
• 3:56
  - win 12 games.
• 3:58
  - But if the market is already pricing them
• 4:00
  - like a two a team for 12 win
• 4:03
  - team,
• 4:04
  - Where your value?
• 4:06
  - That's the key, Fabi, because you don't get
• 4:09
  - paid for predicting something obvious. You get paid
• 4:13
  - for identifying
• 4:14
  - when the price is wrong.
• 4:17
  - Okay. Next one. Baltimore Ravens to win the
• 4:21
  - AFC North. Public or sharp?
• 4:24
  - I'm gonna say sharp, Fabi.
• 4:27
  - I'm with you. I'm with you. And why?
• 4:30
  - Because this isn't necessary about Baltimore being one
• 4:33
  - of the best teams in the NFL,
• 4:36
  - but it's about the structure of the market.
• 4:38
  - So you are betting against Cincinnati,
• 4:42
  - Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. That's it.
• 4:45
  - Okay. And that's why division futures can be
• 4:48
  - interesting.
• 4:49
  - You don't need the Ravens to win the
• 4:51
  - Super Bowl. No. You don't need them to
• 4:53
  - dominate even The U the AFC.
• 4:56
  - You simply need them to finish first in
• 4:59
  - their division.
• 5:01
  - Exactly, buddy. And that's something better sometimes forget.
• 5:05
  - A Super Bowl futures ticket can require you
• 5:08
  - to be right multiple times. So a division
• 5:11
  - ticket
• 5:12
  - requires
• 5:13
  - you to be right about one specific
• 5:16
  - race.
• 5:18
  - I think the biggest mistake people make with
• 5:21
  - features is incredibly
• 5:23
  - simple.
• 5:24
  - They ask,
• 5:25
  - do you think
• 5:27
  - it's going to win?
• 5:29
  - That's the wrong first question.
• 5:32
  - Yes. Because the first question should be what's
• 5:35
  - the price?
• 5:37
  - Let's make it simple.
• 5:38
  - Let's say I think team x has a
• 5:41
  - 20% chance to win in the Super Bowl.
• 5:44
  - That means my fair price it's around plus
• 5:48
  - 400.
• 5:50
  - If the sports books give me a plus
• 5:53
  - 600,
• 5:55
  - now we're talking.
• 5:56
  - Yes, Zoe. Because plus 800
• 5:59
  - implies a probability
• 6:01
  - of really
• 6:02
  - 14.3%
• 6:04
  - more or less. If you believe the real
• 6:06
  - probability is 20%,
• 6:08
  - that's potentially valuable.
• 6:11
  - But what if they gave you plus 250?
• 6:17
  - Then I'm out even if I think they
• 6:19
  - are going to win.
• 6:21
  - That's the mentality. You can correctly predict the
• 6:24
  - winner and still
• 6:26
  - make a bad bet.
• 6:29
  - Yes, Fabi. So now let's talk about the
• 6:31
  - Super Bowl futures.
• 6:33
  - So,
• 6:34
  - this is probably the ultimate public money market.
• 6:37
  - Everybody has a team. Everybody has a prediction.
• 6:40
  - Everybody wants to have that one ticket sitting
• 6:43
  - there for five months.
• 6:46
  - And the Starbucks
• 6:47
  - know that for sure. That's why Super Bowl
• 6:50
  - futures are fascinating.
• 6:52
  - You have to ask yourself,
• 6:54
  - are you betting the team
• 6:56
  - or are you betting the price of the
• 6:59
  - team?
• 7:00
  - For example, if a team is sitting around
• 7:02
  - plus 600,
• 7:04
  - that's a very different proposition from getting that
• 7:07
  - same team
• 7:08
  - at plus
• 7:09
  - 1,000 before the market move.
• 7:13
  - And this is where timing becomes critical because
• 7:16
  - futures are not just about what you bet.
• 7:20
  - They are about when you bet it. Exactly,
• 7:23
  - Bobby. If you believe a team's true price
• 7:26
  - is going to shorten during training camp, preseason,
• 7:29
  - or the first few weeks,
• 7:31
  - you don't necessarily
• 7:33
  - need to wait until everybody agrees with you.
• 7:36
  - You want to get ahead of the market.
• 7:38
  - And that's one of the biggest difference between
• 7:41
  - a casual bettor and somebody who thinks about
• 7:45
  - futures seriously.
• 7:46
  - The casual bettor waits for confirmation. That's what
• 7:49
  - they do. The sharper bettor tries to anticipate
• 7:53
  - the correction.
• 7:54
  - Now let's get into one of my favorite
• 7:56
  - futures market, win totals.
• 7:59
  - This is where people get emotional, Fabi. I
• 8:02
  - love it.
• 8:03
  - Extremely
• 8:04
  - emotional.
• 8:06
  - This team is going twelve five. No way.
• 8:09
  - They are going a nine. That quarterback, it's
• 8:12
  - elite. The coach, it's horrible. Terrible.
• 8:15
  - Everybody has an opinion, pal.
• 8:18
  - Yes. But the sports book doesn't care about
• 8:20
  - your opinion. That's the the true. So they
• 8:23
  - give you a number and that's the number
• 8:25
  - you have to bet.
• 8:28
  - Let's say the total is 10.5
• 8:32
  - wins.
• 8:32
  - The question isn't,
• 8:35
  - are they a good team? No. The question
• 8:37
  - is, do I believe
• 8:40
  - they win 11
• 8:41
  - or more
• 8:42
  - often enough to justifies the prize? Exactly.
• 8:46
  - And now we start looking at schedule strength,
• 8:50
  - strength of division,
• 8:51
  - quarterback stability,
• 8:53
  - offensive line, for example,
• 8:56
  - injuries, coaching, scheduled pause, spots, and potentially even
• 9:01
  - regressions.
• 9:02
  - That's where Sharp analyzes stars, not I watch
• 9:05
  - their highlights.
• 9:07
  - Please don't bet a six month futures ticket
• 9:11
  - because you watch a team's highlights.
• 9:14
  - Yes. That's the worst
• 9:16
  - possible
• 9:17
  - scouting department.
• 9:19
  - Now
• 9:20
  - round two, rapid fire, public or sharp, Pau?
• 9:24
  - Okay. Let's go. I'm ready. Okay.
• 9:27
  - Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. Public or
• 9:29
  - sharp? Public.
• 9:32
  - Absolutely.
• 9:33
  - Absolutely.
• 9:34
  - Huge fan base, huge cutter back, huge media
• 9:38
  - attention. Everybody knows the narrative. But again,
• 9:41
  - that doesn't mean it's a bad bet.
• 9:44
  - It means we need to ask whether the
• 9:46
  - price is worth it. Now ravens to win
• 9:49
  - the AFC nor public or sharp? Sharp.
• 9:54
  - Agree. Agree. Potentially more attractive than simply betting
• 9:58
  - Baltimore to win the Super Bowl. You can
• 10:00
  - isolate the market. You can actually want. Now
• 10:04
  - a team over 11.5
• 10:08
  - wins. Public or sharp?
• 10:10
  - Public.
• 10:12
  - Specifically
• 10:13
  - specifically,
• 10:14
  - if it's a popular team, the public loves
• 10:18
  - overs. Nobody wants to bet on their favorite
• 10:21
  - team to disappoint.
• 10:23
  - And that's one important psychological factor, Fabi. If
• 10:26
  - you are a fan, you naturally want to
• 10:28
  - believe the the ceiling.
• 10:31
  - Sharps are much more comfortable betting the floor.
• 10:35
  - Now,
• 10:36
  - under 7.5
• 10:38
  - wins on a team everybody
• 10:41
  - loves. Public or sharp? Potentially sharp.
• 10:45
  - That's the interesting one. Yes. Because a betting
• 10:48
  - and under can feel horrible.
• 10:50
  - Nobody wants to watch their favorite team lose.
• 10:54
  - But that's exactly why it can become interesting,
• 10:57
  - Fabi. If the public is emotionally attached to
• 11:00
  - the upside,
• 11:01
  - the under might become the more attractive price.
• 11:05
  - Yes. Now hear about this. A plus 5,000
• 11:09
  - Super Bowl long shot.
• 11:12
  - Public or sharp?
• 11:16
  - People will call it sharp because it's a
• 11:18
  - long shot, but that's not necessarily true.
• 11:22
  - Exactly.
• 11:23
  - Long shot doesn't equal value.
• 11:27
  - Yes. A plus 5,000
• 11:29
  - team might have a 3%
• 11:31
  - chance of winning. That's not value. The price
• 11:35
  - implies really two percent. Now, it's interesting.
• 11:39
  - Yes. That's the entire episode in one sentence.
• 11:43
  - The bigger the number doesn't actually mean the
• 11:46
  - better the bet.
• 11:49
  - Okay. So we are actually looking for futures
• 11:52
  - value heading into the season. For me, division
• 11:56
  - winners, Barbie. For you? Same. Yes. Same here
• 11:59
  - because you're talking a team
• 12:02
  - and narrowing down exactly what it needs to
• 12:06
  - accomplish.
• 12:07
  - Then,
• 12:08
  - win totals, especially when we believe the public
• 12:11
  - perception
• 12:12
  - of a team is different from what the
• 12:14
  - schedule actually tell us.
• 12:16
  - And finally,
• 12:18
  - conference futures. Sometimes the Super Bowl markets, it's
• 12:21
  - too expensive. But you might still believe a
• 12:24
  - team has an strong chance of winning its
• 12:27
  - conference.
• 12:29
  - And, Fabi, if the price difference is big
• 12:31
  - enough, that's where we start paying attention.
• 12:36
  - Alright. Last question. No analyzing. Just tell me
• 12:39
  - what you're watching.
• 12:41
  - Best future markets.
• 12:44
  - Division winners.
• 12:46
  - Win totals.
• 12:48
  - I'm gonna say conference futures.
• 12:51
  - And the most dangerous market?
• 12:54
  - Super Bowl long shots because everybody thinks they
• 12:57
  - found the next Cinderella.
• 13:00
  - And your favorite mistake?
• 13:03
  - Betting a team because I like them. Alright.
• 13:06
  - We're not done yet. We've been talking about
• 13:07
  - public money. We've been talking about share money.
• 13:10
  - We are talking about prices. We are talking
• 13:12
  - about future portfolios.
• 13:13
  - But now I want to flip the whole
• 13:16
  - thing around because sometimes
• 13:18
  - the best way to become a better bettor
• 13:20
  - is learning what not to do.
• 13:23
  - Absolutely, Barbie. So let's do another game sharp
• 13:27
  - or public. But this time, we're going through
• 13:30
  - the biggest mistakes bettors make.
• 13:32
  - I'll give you the s scenario, you tell
• 13:34
  - me sharp or public, and if it's either,
• 13:37
  - we'll call it just bad betting.
• 13:40
  - Okay. I like that category.
• 13:43
  - Okay.
• 13:44
  - Mistake number one, betting your favorite team. You
• 13:48
  - grew up as a Bills fan.
• 13:51
  - You love just Allen. You believe that Buffalo
• 13:54
  - is winning the Super Bowl, you see Buffalo
• 13:57
  - at plus 1,000, you immediately put money on
• 14:00
  - them, sharp or public.
• 14:03
  - Public? Easy? Exactly. And this is one of
• 14:06
  - the hardest things to eliminate because you're not
• 14:09
  - evaluating the team anymore. You're emotionally invested.
• 14:13
  - And the problem gets worse when you start
• 14:16
  - defending your bed. So you don't want information.
• 14:19
  - You want confirmation.
• 14:21
  - So you see a positive article.
• 14:23
  - See? I told you. You see a negative
• 14:26
  - injury report? Doesn't matter. That's confirmation bias.
• 14:31
  - Exactly.
• 14:31
  - A sharper better should be willing to say,
• 14:35
  - I love this team but I hate this
• 14:37
  - price.
• 14:38
  - That's a massive difference, Bobby. You can love
• 14:40
  - Buffalo as a football team and still hate
• 14:42
  - Buffalo at plus 600.
• 14:45
  - Now, mistake number two, chasing a loss.
• 14:49
  - I mean, you lose $100
• 14:52
  - and you say,
• 14:53
  - okay, I'm getting that back tonight.
• 14:56
  - Then you put the $300
• 14:58
  - on the next game
• 14:59
  - public or sharp.
• 15:01
  - Public and dangerous.
• 15:03
  - Exactly. Exactly. Because now you're not betting based
• 15:06
  - on probability. You're betting based on emotion again.
• 15:11
  - So your previous loss has absolutely nothing to
• 15:14
  - do with the probability of your next bet.
• 15:16
  - If you lost yesterday, the next game doesn't
• 15:19
  - suddenly become more likely to win.
• 15:21
  - Yes. But people think people think I need
• 15:24
  - to make my money back, and suddenly
• 15:27
  - a $100 loss becomes
• 15:29
  - a $300
• 15:30
  - lose, then a $1,000
• 15:33
  - lose.
• 15:34
  - And that's not bankroll management, Fabi. That's revenge
• 15:38
  - betting.
• 15:40
  - And revenge betting, it's one of the fastest
• 15:42
  - way to destroy
• 15:44
  - a bankroll.
• 15:45
  - Now mistake number three,
• 15:48
  - purlaying everything.
• 15:50
  - You have five NFL futures you like. Instead
• 15:55
  - of betting them individually,
• 15:57
  - you purlaying
• 15:58
  - all five, public or sharp.
• 16:01
  - Public, Fabi.
• 16:03
  - Wipeout.
• 16:04
  - Because the payout looks incredible, but that's a
• 16:08
  - trap. You see? Plus 10,000 and suddenly you
• 16:11
  - are thinking about what you are going to
• 16:13
  - buy with the winnings,
• 16:15
  - but you forget something.
• 16:17
  - Every additional leg creates another opportunity to lose.
• 16:22
  - And with futures,
• 16:24
  - it's even crazier. Imagine putting five teams into
• 16:27
  - a Super Bowl per leg. You have months
• 16:30
  - on uncertainty
• 16:31
  - attached to every single leg.
• 16:34
  - And one bad season kills the entire ticket.
• 16:37
  - So you kill
• 16:39
  - and one bad seasons
• 16:41
  - kill the entire ticket so you could have
• 16:43
  - correctly identified four excellent positions and one team
• 16:47
  - wins everything.
• 16:49
  - The public ask,
• 16:51
  - how much can I win?
• 16:54
  - And the chart ask, how often does this
• 16:57
  - actually hit. Exactly. Mistake number four, betting without
• 17:02
  - shopping for the best number.
• 17:04
  - You find a team at plus 700.
• 17:08
  - You bet immediately
• 17:09
  - Then you discover another the sport book had
• 17:12
  - plus 900.
• 17:14
  - Sharp or public?
• 17:16
  - Public.
• 17:17
  - And painful, pal.
• 17:19
  - Very painful because you didn't lose money immediately.
• 17:23
  - You lost value.
• 17:25
  - Exactly. And this is one of the biggest
• 17:27
  - mistakes because people don't feel it. You bet
• 17:30
  - $100.
• 17:31
  - Nothing looks wrong. But somebody else gets plus
• 17:35
  - 900.
• 17:36
  - You're paying for the exact same outcome
• 17:40
  - with a worse
• 17:41
  - price.
• 17:42
  - And over a large sample size that matters
• 17:45
  - a lot.
• 17:46
  - So rule number four,
• 17:49
  - always shop the number not just the spark
• 17:52
  - book,
• 17:53
  - the number. Okay? Mistake number five, Thinking a
• 17:57
  - bigger odds number means value. This one is
• 18:01
  - a classic.
• 18:02
  - You can you see a team at plus
• 18:05
  - 5,000
• 18:06
  - and you say,
• 18:07
  - that's insane value.
• 18:10
  - Sharp or public?
• 18:11
  - Public, Fabi.
• 18:13
  - Why?
• 18:14
  - Because high odds are an automatically
• 18:17
  - value. Let's say, plus 500
• 18:20
  - or plus 5,000 implies approximately a 2% probability.
• 18:24
  - If you think the team has a 1%
• 18:26
  - chance, that's a terrible
• 18:29
  - bet even though plus 5,000
• 18:32
  - looks exciting.
• 18:34
  - Exactly. But if your model says
• 18:37
  - 3%,
• 18:38
  - now we have a conversation.
• 18:41
  - That's the difference. Value is the number is
• 18:43
  - bigger than my estimate probability says it should
• 18:46
  - be.
• 18:48
  - Pao, that's a sharp thinking. Congratulations.
• 18:51
  - Mistake number six,
• 18:53
  - overacting
• 18:54
  - to one game.
• 18:56
  - Now week one. Let's say week one. A
• 18:59
  - team lose 38 to 10. You immediately bet
• 19:02
  - they're under for the season.
• 19:04
  - Sharp or public? I'm gonna say public, buddy.
• 19:07
  - And wipe out. Recentsivize,
• 19:09
  - one game becomes the entire narrative.
• 19:12
  - Same thing in reverse. A team wins 45,
• 19:15
  - 10. Everybody suddenly thinks they are going to
• 19:18
  - fifteen two.
• 19:19
  - Exactly.
• 19:20
  - One game gives you information. Yes. That's true.
• 19:23
  - But it doesn't necessarily redefine
• 19:25
  - the entire probability distribution.
• 19:28
  - So you need context.
• 19:30
  - Who did they play? Was the quarterback healthy?
• 19:33
  - Turnovers?
• 19:34
  - Injuries? Was the score a miss landing?
• 19:37
  - What was the underlying
• 19:39
  - performance?
• 19:40
  - Don't let one Sunday
• 19:43
  - rewrite your entire pre season model. Now, mistake
• 19:47
  - number seven,
• 19:48
  - betting the narrative
• 19:49
  - instead
• 19:50
  - of the schedule. Here's another one.
• 19:53
  - This team is stuck.
• 19:55
  - You bet the over 11.5
• 19:58
  - wins, but then you actually look in their
• 20:01
  - schedule
• 20:02
  - and they have an absolutely
• 20:04
  - brutal stretch.
• 20:05
  - Sharp or public. Public.
• 20:07
  - Exactly.
• 20:08
  - And this is particularly dangerous
• 20:11
  - with wins totals.
• 20:13
  - Yes, buddy. Because people
• 20:14
  - evaluate teams instead of seasons.
• 20:17
  - A team can be excellent and still go
• 20:19
  - nine eight, for example.
• 20:21
  - Yes. Exactly. You don't need to know whether
• 20:23
  - they are good. You need to know whether
• 20:25
  - they are good enough
• 20:27
  - to beat the number.
• 20:29
  - Yes. So that's why schedule analysis matters. Not
• 20:32
  - just who's the best team
• 20:34
  - or maybe how many wins does this schedule
• 20:37
  - realistically
• 20:38
  - create.
• 20:39
  - Yes. Mistake number eight, bidding too many correlated
• 20:43
  - futures.
• 20:44
  - Let's say you love Baltimore. Okay? You bet
• 20:47
  - Ravens to win the AFC North, Ravens to
• 20:49
  - win the AFC,
• 20:50
  - Ravens to win the Super Bowl, Ravens over
• 20:53
  - 10.5
• 20:54
  - wins. Public or sharp?
• 20:56
  - It sound it sounds sharp, but it might
• 20:59
  - actually be terrible for the ball management.
• 21:01
  - Exactly. Because you're basically made one giant Baltimore
• 21:05
  - bet.
• 21:06
  - And that's correlation. If Baltimore has a disastrous
• 21:10
  - season, you don't lose one bet. You could
• 21:13
  - lose
• 21:13
  - four. And this is where people confuse having
• 21:16
  - multiply ticket and diversification.
• 21:19
  - Four bets aren't diversified
• 21:21
  - if they are all dependent on the same
• 21:24
  - outcome.
• 21:25
  - Exactly. So you need to know what's your
• 21:27
  - actual exposure is.
• 21:30
  - Now, mistake number nine,
• 21:32
  - moving the goals but after you bet. This
• 21:35
  - one is psychological.
• 21:37
  - You bet
• 21:38
  - team a at plus 800.
• 21:42
  - Two weeks later,
• 21:43
  - they are plus 500 and you say, see,
• 21:47
  - I knew they were going to be good
• 21:49
  - but then they lose the Super Bowl.
• 21:52
  - Sharp or public?
• 21:53
  - Can I say neither? But here's the important
• 21:56
  - part, Fadi. You need to evaluate the decision,
• 21:59
  - not just the result. Exactly. And if you
• 22:02
  - got plus 800
• 22:03
  - and the market eventually moved to plus 500,
• 22:07
  - that can be evidence
• 22:10
  - that you got a good number. It doesn't
• 22:12
  - guarantee you ticket wins. That's why closing line
• 22:16
  - value matters. A good bet can can lose.
• 22:19
  - A bad bet can win. And that's one
• 22:21
  - of the hardest lesson in sports betting.
• 22:24
  - Stop judging every decision by the final score.
• 22:27
  - Okay?
• 22:28
  - There is it. That's today's
• 22:31
  - lesson.
• 22:32
  - Don't ask who do I think it's going
• 22:34
  - to win. Ask
• 22:36
  - what does the market think
• 22:38
  - they're worth.
• 22:39
  - Because public money, Fabi, bets with opinions.
• 22:44
  - Sharp money bets with numbers.
• 22:47
  - And futures.
• 22:48
  - They're all about getting the number right before
• 22:51
  - everybody else does.
• 22:53
  - Yeah. So that's it for us, Fabi.
• 22:58
  - Well, see you next time.
• 23:00
  - And remember,
• 23:02
  - la casa no maslana.
• 23:04
  - We
• 23:06
  - are waiting for you on YouTube and Instagram,
• 23:09
  - on TikTok, on Discord platforms. And please register
• 23:13
  - yourself on lacasanogana.com.
• 23:16
  - Remember to subscribe,
• 23:17
  - enter your entire information, and please verify yourself
• 23:21
  - to collect all the money you're going to
• 23:23
  - win in this NFL
• 23:25
  - season. See you next week. Bye.
• 23:28
  - Bye.