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Non-Iranian Gulf oil flows are back to pre-war volumes; the war premium has moved into distillate, freight and feedstock rules
Kpler-tracked Middle East oil exports excluding Iran, pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers included, are running at or above pre-war levels even as tankers keep being struck in Hormuz. The recovery is real, engineered, expensive - and it stops at the refinery gate, because middle distillates cannot take the bypass routes. That is the channel that reaches Nigeria's import-parity pump price and Europe's waste-feedstock market, where an almost entirely uncaptured West African supply is being converted into certified export tonnes.
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