Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / 🔻When to SELL Your Stock Exactly + Stock Market News 04 June 2024

Transcript

🔻When to SELL Your Stock Exactly + Stock Market News 04 June 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: say on that, and I thought this is a great timeframe to a look at.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: When do we sell all the stocks for, whether you're a trader or whether you're a long-term investor, and then, of course, what the heck's going on up there, right?
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: So we got a couple of things to cover here, really, but let's start with the more educational and then we go into the active.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: We got a little bit of time till the market opens, so let me share my screen with you and I want to thank you for tuning in, especially the 21 of you who found the like button so far.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: The rest of you there we go, there we go.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Oh, yes, this this is my May, and I'm sharing this with you for inspiration, right, inspiration.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: So we did $4,3338 profit in May.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: I basically didn't trade the first three weeks, right.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Week one nothing.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Week two nothing.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Week three nothing, why?
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Week four, actually almost nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: One trade.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Because, well, I was on a beach, I was on holiday, I was traveling, I was in France, I was having a good time and I couldn't really be bothered.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: So last week I picked up the pace a little bit here and we made $3,500 that week, $2,300 on Friday, and if you want to see how we did that on Friday.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: I always want to be transparent.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I'm always happy to share every single trade.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Just ask okay, this is what we did on Friday.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: We actually, yeah, took about $2,500 of profits and then had a bunch of other things open.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: And then yesterday again another beautiful day, mainly just one major trade here on the S&P Made $1,500 on that in about half an hour.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Now you might be wondering how the heck do you do that?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Can I do that?
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Yes, in my opinion.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Yes, I'm not promising returns, of course, but you can apply the same strategy that I use.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: You want to learn the strategy?
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Come and learn it from me.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: When Today indeed 8 pm Eastern time, today, in about 11 hours or thereabouts Just go over to phoenixfriendsorg webinar, grab yourself a free, entirely free spot and come and join me, and you can really pester me there with the hard questions, because that's what it's all about, right?
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: So I'll show you the whole strategy.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: We do a real trade together and then you can ask me everything that you've always wanted to ask.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: So there we go, felixfriendsorg slash webinar.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: But let's go to like okay, how did we make money yesterday, for example?
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Well, yesterday, this is the chart from yesterday, the day chart, the intro day chart of the S&P 500.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: And if you're wondering where the heck I learned this, I learned this from market makers.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: You are the people who basically control the market and I have three of them on my team.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I've got fairly good insight into what goes on there.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: I knew that we had a $5,300 resistance point in the day.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: I knew that we had a approximately $5,240 support line.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: I'll show you in a second how I knew that and where you can look that up.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: So what happened?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Market bumps its head on the $5,300 resistance line and then comes down.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Fairly predictable, so far right.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: So we went up, bump our head, ouch, come down.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: I enter my trade around about here.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: It comes down very nicely, I exit there.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Now you could say but Felix, you could have held on and look at the profits you could have made.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Very true, I went to bed, right, I was very happy $1,500 in half an hour.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: I went to bed very happy and then it bounced off the 5,240 line and it rather predictably went back up.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: So had you been awake at that time, which was 1 am my time, but if you live in the US, this is a little easier for you because you're actually awake at 1 pm.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: You US this is a little easier for you because you're actually awake at 1pm.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: You could have set up another trade and you could have made the same thing again.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: You could have easily made $3,000 that day, right?
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: So that's it.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: So, really, it all depends on these support and resistance lights.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: So where do you find them?
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Well, you can listen to me drivel on and share them with you.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: You can hit the like button.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: That would help tremendously.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: You can also go over to Options Watch tremendously.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: You can also go over to OptionsWatch.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Just looking at Nvidia and you can look this up for the SPX or the SPY in OptionsWatch and you will see for every single day where is the market positioned.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: So, for today, let's zoom out a little bit here.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Let's take all this off here.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: What have we got?
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Whoops, we're working to make that happen.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Less and less, by the way.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna just move my selfie out of it.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Does that work?
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: No, that's horrible, thank you, thank you.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: How about that?
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Ah, okay, so you have no idea what I just said, right?
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: I've been doing this for a while, haven't I?
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: All right, let me give you a quick recap then Appreciate that no sound.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Thank you, jerome.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: How's the boat?
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: I just have to start it again.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: All right, we wanted to make it exciting and interesting.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Okay, all right, let me.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: We started here with OptionsWatch, right?
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: So what are we looking at?
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: We're looking at today.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: We're looking at, first of all, the green lines.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: These green little bars tell you where the market is positioned.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Look for the big one.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: The next big one up is at $5,300.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Above that, it's at $5,330.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Above that, it's at $5,360.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: So I put in the next big one on the chart here.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Yesterday we bumped our head at $5,300.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: I made $1,500.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Did you what about on the way down?
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Here we got the red lines.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: This is your support.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Now the next big one is at $5,240.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: It gets slightly bigger at $5,200.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: And it gets really rather large at $5,185.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: So I put them on the chart here.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Now I know the resistance lines.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: And look at yesterday Bounced ahead at 5300, bounced off the 5240 line, pretty good.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: So what I would expect to happen today is, if we do go down some more sort of looks like it today, we might bounce off it here again and we might do the same thing.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Should we then for some reason go up, we will likely bounce ahead at 5,300 and do something like that.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: So now you know where the market's positioned.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: And how do we know this?
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: It's market makers.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Market makers have to sell the S&P when we get to 5,300.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: No bleeding choice.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: When we go to 5,240, the buggers have to buy.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: When we go to 5,185, they have to buy hand over fist.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: So now you know that you know a lot more than most people.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: So you might want to get yourself a 30-day free trial to options watch and at least play with it.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Please play with it in a paper trading account, start to get comfortable and confident and so on.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Don't just go out there and say but Felix told me to do this, no, you've got to practice and learn right.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: I've practiced this for many, many, many, many years.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Doesn't mean it has to take you that long, but do practice right Now.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Boats good, sitting in the south of Bahamas, says Jerome.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: That's very nice to hear, jerome, I'm glad.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Is that the new boat or is that the old boat?
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: What about India?
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll have a look at India in a moment as well, gladly.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: So now you know that right.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: So now, basically, you know if you're a short term trader?
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: When do you buy?
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: When do you exit?
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Now, what if you are not really a short term trader?
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: What if you're more like a sort of chasing the market kind of a guy?
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Well then, click on the little trend indicator here, click here, click on the trend indicator, and now you've got all that red and green there in the background, and guess what?
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: It's color coded for eight years, because that's about my mental age.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Now, did that work?
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Well, did that work?
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Well, let's look where it turned red.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: It sort of turned red here right Down.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Was that a good call?
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd say so.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: If we can zoom back a little bit more, that doesn't remove itself.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: So let's move up a bit, because it's moved up a lot.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: It's been mostly green.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Let's go a little bit closer.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: So what do you see?
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Well, see the red little bits here.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Right, you see the red little bits.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: They were downtrends there.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: What about the green bits?
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Well, there are lots of green bits.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: There was this green bit here.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: We turned green here.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: We turned green.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: There we turned green here.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: You get the idea it's relatively accurate, isn't it Bloody accurate actually?
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: And why is it bloody accurate?
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Because it took me 20 years to figure this out literally.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: So that helps, I think, with momentum.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: If you're a momentum chaser, I'm a bit of a momentum chaser, but I like to still see where the market's positioned.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: So I take the two factors in and look what has it been saying here the last couple of days.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: The market actually went up, but our indicator has been saying careful guys, it's actually looking quite red.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: And each day we came down with these pretty bearish moves at the beginning of the day.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: I think today will be no different.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: So that's for you people who want to make short term money, and I'm somebody who wants to make short term money so I can put it into my long term portfolio.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: So what if you were a long term term chap?
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: So if you were an investor and you're like no, I'm not a trader, felix, absolutely no bloody interest in making money easily, just kidding Then long-term investor, that's also me.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: What are you then looking at?
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: I look at these things.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: I look at gross profit margin Tells me how good the motor is.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: How easy is it to replace that business?
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: I look at revenue profit margin Tells me how good the motor is.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: How easy is it to replace that business.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: I look at revenue growth.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Particularly if you're looking at growth stocks, the revenue is going to grow.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: You look at net income.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: That's a fancy word for profit.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: You look at return on invested capital.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: That basically tells you a lot about how the quality of that business.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: If they invest $100, what do they turn it into?
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: If return on invested capital is 30%, then next year that $100 becomes $130, right.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: And then I look at earnings growth, which again profit growth.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Look at those things.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Let me take a screenshot of it and track this.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: For every stock you hold, every quarter.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: They only release data once every three months.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: It's not exactly like a lot of work.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Now we're going to put all that data into OptionsWatch, so you don't have to do that.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: It's coming up sometime in the future, but for the moment you might need to do this manually, right, and don't listen to chat GPT, because it always has old data.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: So this here is what.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: What's the stock?
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Anybody can venture a guess.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Go on, somebody venture a guess, right?
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: What's that stock?
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know what you get for it, anybody?
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: What's the stock?
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Look at these numbers.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: What do they mean to you?
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: 79 billion revenues, 75% gross margin Sure, somebody can guess it.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Mike, you're tired of losing.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Seriously, come and join the live trading session later on today.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Live trading at 8 pm Eastern time.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: We'll teach you.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Now we've got Echo, oh dear.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: All right, we'll turn the other mic off again.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, we've got some sound issues here, don't we?
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, appreciate that.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: I saw it.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: I saw it.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: I saw special effects and everything.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: What is this stock?
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Anybody, anybody, one key rep?
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Yep, you got it.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: You got it.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, logan.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Absolutely.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: It is NVIDIA.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Nobody else has numbers like this.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Nobody makes $42 billion profit on only 80 billion revenue, except for Nvidia.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: So I think the echo is good again.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, thanks, christian, I turned that off.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: It comes off.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: You guys, I think, a slight time delay.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: So what do you need to look at?
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: If you say you hold the stock right, like financial advice, what do you need to look at?
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Ah, the gross profit margins going up.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: Yes, is revenue growing?
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Yes, is revenue growing?
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Yes, is profits growing?
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Yes, return on capital employed is 85% of the same.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: It's growing.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Earnings growth it's growing.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: So what makes you sell it when things get worse?
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Or you have some doubt whether, for the next couple of years, people are going to be willing to pay that kind of premium for NVIDIA chips.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: If you think that AMD can catch up, maybe the margins will drop somewhat.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Right, that would be the only question.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: So next, someone's going to be drilling and roofs will start leaking?
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: You need your own sound manager.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Well, I thought I had one here, but she is not that useful.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: She is chief financial analyst and sound engineer.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: And you're the sound engineer around here.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: What were you doing?
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: You sleeping?
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: You were sleeping.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Yes, apparently.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Apparently, that's more important than sound.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: So that's Toluda.