Latest / Best of Business / Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management expert on the market's response to the US-Iran peace deal

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Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management expert on the market's response to the US-Iran peace deal · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News talks'd be follow
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  Speaker 2: Together do for c L The numbers in is it
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  Speaker 2: X fifty is down zero point two five percent today,
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  Speaker 2: the ASX fifty is up one percent so far. A
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  Speaker 2: barrel of Brent crude is costing eighty four US dollars,
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  Speaker 2: that's down four percent today. One New Zealand dollar is
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  Speaker 2: worth fifty nine US cents, eighty three cents, fifty eurosents,
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  Speaker 2: forty four ukpins, ninety four yen. And it's nineteen past
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  Speaker 2: six and Shane Solly Harbor Asset Management is with us.
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  Speaker 2: Hello Shane here. That okay? So what do investment markets
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  Speaker 2: make of this deal?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, look to the escalation, it really reduces the risk
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  Speaker 3: on global growth and higher inflation from the energy shop
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  Speaker 3: tied to the Middle East conflict. So it takes takes
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  Speaker 3: pressure off their global economies and New Zealan economy. It
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  Speaker 3: takes to some pressure off the central banks. We could
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  Speaker 3: see a period of low energy prices actually seeing US
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  Speaker 3: push into a disinflation period. That's when overall prices are
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  Speaker 3: increasing by at a slower rate and that generally is
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  Speaker 3: quite port of low interest rates and a better period
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  Speaker 3: they're going to make activity. So look, we've still got
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  Speaker 3: the sixty day negotiation period to get through. There's little
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  Speaker 3: bit of uncertainty there, but markets are certainly positive on that.
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  Speaker 3: Most SAR markets across Asia Pacific were up. Japanese market
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  Speaker 3: up almost four point nine percent. US futures for what
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  Speaker 3: we might expect to see in the market tonight in
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  Speaker 3: the US showing more than one percent up as you
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  Speaker 3: touched on. Locally, New Zealand government bonds down zero point
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  Speaker 3: six percent to four point four to three. That's important
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  Speaker 3: pullback from recent highs our local sheer marker down a
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  Speaker 3: little bit. We've seen some of our health care and
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  Speaker 3: utility stocks just which are a good defensive place to
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  Speaker 3: hide out when things are bad, pull back a little
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  Speaker 3: bit and people move money into more cyclical industrial financial
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  Speaker 3: So where this's the odd market out?
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  Speaker 2: Now, what do you think the SpaceX IPO means for
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  Speaker 2: investment markets?
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  Speaker 3: Well, firstly, it was a bit of a sigh of relief.
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  Speaker 3: It's this massive tree and two point two tree and
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  Speaker 3: by the end of the day they business up nineteen
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  Speaker 3: percent on day one. It opens the door for the
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  Speaker 3: next round of these mega initial public offerings. We've got
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  Speaker 3: Ethropic and open AI, these big artificial intelligence businesses that
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  Speaker 3: are remored to be valued around a dragon dilization, say
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  Speaker 3: each lineup and so it's important the SpaceX she pross
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  Speaker 3: firstly listed well, but it's got to keep going. The
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  Speaker 3: next few weeks are important. If that IPO doesn't know,
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  Speaker 3: if the price doesn't hold up, then it makes it
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  Speaker 3: harder for the next two to come through. Importantly for
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  Speaker 3: our part of the world, the AI firms can raise capital,
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  Speaker 3: so it's good for the infrastructure providers like in for tools,
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  Speaker 3: Cambra data centers. We've seen a lot of selling in
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  Speaker 3: the last few weeks hither as people tried to fund
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  Speaker 3: their SpaceX holding, So we might see a bit of
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  Speaker 3: that money flow into other things, or they might just
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  Speaker 3: go and buy a whole bunch of SpaceX she is
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  Speaker 3: in the open market. But yeah, we are definitely seeing
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  Speaker 3: a little bit of that money flow wider now. So yeah,
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  Speaker 3: a couple of good, good key points there.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Hey, listen, just really quickly, we've got the Federal
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  Speaker 2: Reserve Open Market Committee rate decision on Thursday night. What
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  Speaker 2: is the market expecting.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's an important time, so the market's expecting
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  Speaker 3: the feed holds rates between three and a half and
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  Speaker 3: three point seventy five percent. They use a range. On Tuesday,
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  Speaker 3: we'll be going to be looking for language head particularly
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  Speaker 3: the press conference afterwards and what's called the dot plot,
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  Speaker 3: where the various members plot where they think rapes will
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  Speaker 3: be and generally they've been suggesting rates will go down.
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  Speaker 3: So we'll be looking for as a hawkish pause like
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  Speaker 3: we're worried about inflation, we're on hoole or actually we're
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  Speaker 3: going to see how the data lands. More importantly, it's
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  Speaker 3: Kevin Walsh's first role as fed cheer. He's been a
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  Speaker 3: bit of a tough talker and we're going to see
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  Speaker 3: if he comes through with that language. We've also got
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  Speaker 3: Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia at this week,
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  Speaker 3: so big week for central banks.
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  Speaker 2: Two writer it does Hey, Shane has always good to
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  Speaker 2: talk to you, Thanks mate, Shane Soally Harbor Asset Management.
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