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UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All systems go. Clear for liftoff. What is going on, everybody?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Hope everyone's having a great week. We are back talking
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: some fights. UFC fight night in Shanghai, China. That means
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: there is a weird start time, 3 a.m. Eastern this week.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: So all our content always up on Friday. Projections, ownership,
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: the stone, slate station, all that good stuff. Everything you
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: need to be successful in MMA, DFS. All that will
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: be up tomorrow. If anything changes, more than likely I'll
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: be up. pretty late friday i can't guarantee i make
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: it all the way to midnight my time but regardless
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: most news should come out by then if any updates
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: are needed i will make them in the discord but
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: nine of the 13 fights are expected to finish one
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: of those four are the main events so i think
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: that right away tells us we should be expecting some
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: big scores also nine of the 13 fights are uh
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: have favorites minus 200 or greater So a lot of
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: big favorites, a lot of fights expected to finish. 13's
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: a good number. I will definitely butcher names like I
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: always do, but a lot of Chinese fighters. I'm ready
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: for this one, though. Big Marley, how we doing?
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to wake up
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: at 3 a.m., but hopefully I'll wake up to a
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: sweat entering the main card or something like that. But
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: another one with a lot of names that people won't know,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: so hopefully we can find a small edge here or there. Yeah,
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: looking forward to talking about it.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. Again, hope everyone out there is doing well. All
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: we ask is the like button and the subscribe button.
• 2:01
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• 3:01
  Speaker 1: It only gets cheaper with the annual packages. Again, you
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: can see this for all of our content. It gets
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: cheaper the longer that you're with us. College football is
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: also starting on Saturday, week zero. And the next week
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: it starts as well. So can't wait for that. We
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: are getting into the best time of the year for DFS.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: And we have so many different options when it comes
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: to packages and We would love to have you for sure.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, man, look at, I was just looking at
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: this earlier. Look at all of these screenshots right here.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Little big Marley, $ 81, 933 piece, which you love to see,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: but we'd love to have you at the nation. Rock
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: us with the avatar, get in the winner's circle and
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: have a chance to make this collage right here. Look
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: at that. Another big Marley, a little 12.6 K action.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: You love to see it. All right, let's get back
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: out of there. Let's go to the Stone. Before we
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: go fight by fight, any– actually, what's up, Nate D?
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Great to see you. I hope you're doing well. Any
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: broad state overview for you before we go fight by fight?
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Any fights you'll be locking? Yeah, anything before we talk
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: about them?
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: No, no locks. I plan on just being heavy on
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: my two five-star fights. Maybe I can be talked in
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: to moving up another one or two. But, yeah, I
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: think there's a lot of solid fights to target on
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: this one. So not even a must-have main event, I
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: don't think. Agree.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Absolutely agree. What's up, Nicholas? Hope you're doing well. All right,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: bottom to top, like usual, first fight of the night.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: In the mid-tier, we got Meng Dang taking on Cameron Nelson.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Minus 145, Dang. Plus 125 is Nelson. Dang, plus 124
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: inside the distance. Or plus 140 inside the distance. Nelson
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: plus 275 inside the distance. Dang, round one, plus 300.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: We're talking line movement like always. A lot of line
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: movement in this one. Dang open, plus 115 on the
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: money line. Now minus 145. Fight open, minus 140 to finish.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Now minus 165. Dang open, plus 175 inside the distance.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Now plus 140. Dang opened, plus 400 in round one.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Now plus 300. On the flip side, obviously money came
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: against Nelson on the money line. Also against him a
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: little bit for inside the distance. Open, 256. now plus 275.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're talking low-level fight right here, but it
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: is expected to finish, which is the highest mid-tier fight
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: expected to finish on this card. And yeah, I personally
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: like Ding Meng because all of the line movement has
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: pointed his way, and I think he is more aggressive.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: He will have a height advantage, as you see, but
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: I am fine playing Nelson and Chalkier lineups, leaving 400
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: as well. But I'm going to play this fight. I'll
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: be overweight more than likely.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I changed it to a four-star already. This is
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: one I like to start the night off with. Just
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: a lot of unknowns, really, on the Cam Nelson side.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: I thought he looked like an aggressive striker that goes
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: for the kills. He also had some powerful takedowns as well. But, again,
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: some scrubs, and now he's getting Meng Ding, who is
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: way more experienced. He's got a lot of knockouts, and
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: I think he is the better point fighter of the two.
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: So if it does go to a decision, I feel
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: like In a striking match, I like Meng to win
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: the course of 15 minutes, but Nelson could mix in takedowns,
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: and at $ 7, 900, anybody who can mix in takedowns and
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: possibly win is going to be in play for me.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: I also think Nelson, just the overall making your debut,
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: having those nerves, I think he's going to come out hot,
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: and that could be good or bad for him, but
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: I think it's going to be good for DFS. I
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: am going to take Nelson to win just because I
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: like unknowns. I think that it is a close fight,
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: not quite a pick them, but I'd be fine just
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: taking the plus money side of this either way. So
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: give me Nelson as.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: The pick to win.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: But I am cool being overweight to both sides of
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: this one. I don't even think it'll be too highly
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: owned of a fight as a whole.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: I agree with you. So you said you moved three
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: star to four star. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. And I mean,
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: that puts you as one of your favorite fights on
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: the card. And I do agree. I don't really like
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: the mid tier too much. They're really, really low tier
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: when your dumpster diving is pretty tough. So I think
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: I will find myself landing on this fight a decent bid. Again,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: 25 cents on the under in terms of the fight
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: to finish. Mang has taken money on the money line.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: I'm going to ride the line movement. But I think
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Cam Nelson also solid play and gets you the ability
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: to leave money pretty easily without giving up much upside.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: All right, let's keep it rolling from one of the
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: fights that we like most to, in my opinion, one
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: of the worst fights on the card to target. Julia
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Palastri taking on Jingneng Zhang. Minus 230, Palastri. Plus 192
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: is Jingneng. Plus 250 for this fight to finish. The
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: most likely to go the distance on the card. Palastri
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: plus 350. Zhang plus 625. I don't really see myself
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: playing any Palastri. Actually, if I had 15 teams or more,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: you can mix her in. Her inside the distance prop,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: about 23.5% will be higher than her ownership. So if
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: you look at it that way, she's a way to
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: get difference. Upper tier is loaded in this one, though.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Hard for me to click that name. And Jingnei Zhang,
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, the fight's expected to go the distance, and
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: she's 7,300. Mainly will stay on the feet, so I
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: think she's a floor play. I don't love it, but
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: I'm going to probably get some. What about you?
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is my least favorite fight on the card.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: With limited lineups, it's more of a one-star for me.
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: I'll be sure not to click on this with hand
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: builds on either side of it. And that's because I
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: like Palastri. I just think that both of them are
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: primary strikers. And Palastri is the more vicious striker. I
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: think she's probably higher volume as well. And she's had
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: to deal with so many grapplers that I think at
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: this point she's got the grappling edge too. So all
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: the edges go to Palastri, but she's $ 8, 900. We would
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: really need a ceiling type of performance from her to
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: be on the optimal at $ 8, 900. So I'm just going
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: to hope that she wins, scores somewhere in the 80s,
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: and that's probably not going to cut it.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: What would you set her takedown prop at?. 5. Yeah.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: It's really hard for me to get there if she's
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: not going to wrestle with the over heavily juice. So
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: I prefer the dog because we need to play a
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: salary-based game and we need dogs on this card, but
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: I don't even love it any which way. What's going on, Phil?
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Great to see you, man. I cannot wait for NFL season. Gang, gang,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: or your name, Phil, didn't remind me of anything NFL,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: but it's hard to get that out of the back
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: of my head. How many more drafts do you need,
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Big Marley, on the three sites to complete the max?
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: Like eight.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Wow. Eight total?
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: Maybe, maybe. Eight, ten or so. You asked me in
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: the pool how long I've been drafting. I looked it
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: up the other day. The end of April is when
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: I started.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: That's crazy. Yeah, Big Marley's on that big-time grind, maxing
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: all three sites in the flagship. So hopefully we have
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: some sweats when it's all said and done near the end.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: What's up, YSM? I assume you're in the showdown streets
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: after shipping day one. So hope showdown's treating you well.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Saw Kyle Williams got a touchdown. Bernard got a touchdown.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: NFL going to be lit, no doubt for sure. Hopefully
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: UFC's lit this week as well, though. Let's keep it rolling.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: To the next fight on the card, we got Lawrence
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Louie and Hector Santiago. Minus 280 is Louie. plus 230
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Santiago minus one 45 for this fight to finish Louie
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: plus 100 inside the distance Santiago plus five 25 Louie
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: round one plus 300. I was a little surprised to
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: see you have, this is only a three star, uh,
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: mainly because looking at Louie, he had his 5.3 takedowns
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: per 15 minutes, got seven takedowns in a C in
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: his UFC debut last fight for 100 DK points. I
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: will say that was our, uh, His significant strikes and
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: his takedowns is only a three fight sample. And two
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: of those were road to the UFC fight. So little
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: worse competition. Santiago is making his debut, but yeah, break
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: this one down.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm cool. I just moved it to a four
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: star as well. Cause I do like targeting this fight.
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: I think Santiago is probably the better and more powerful striker.
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: So if it is a striking match, he's going to
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: be live to win and he could get a knockout
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: and break the slate. But yeah, since he's the better striker,
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: Louie should go in and wrestle heavily. I think that
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: Santiago is a pure striker. So I don't know that
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: he can get up if Louie gets takedown. So he
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: could rack up control time, but if he can get up,
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: I think Louie will keep going for those takedowns. And
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: I think he can get multiple in each round. I
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: just think that Louie has a better chance striking than
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: Santiago does grappling. So if Louie is going to spend
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: time on the feet, I don't really like the 90,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: the $ 9, 100 price tag, but he is a guy who,
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: One of few guys, I think, on this card who
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: could land, you know, six plus takedowns. And anyone who
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: can land that many takedowns has to be in play
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: for DFS. So Louie is my pick to win. But
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: Santiago is a dog I like at seventy one hundred
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: dollars because I think he could win a striking match,
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: maybe score around seventy one hundred in a decision win.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: But he could also knock Louie out in any round
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: and really score well.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I mean, I like Lawrence Louie. I think,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: like you said, he has one of the most upside
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: on the slate. He can wrestle a bunch. He's taken
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: on a striker. And on the flip side, I do
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: think Louie gets a little bit of ownership. I think
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Santiago is pretty solid on the feet. I'm looking at
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: this as a clash of styles. Louie's not lost on
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: the feet by any means, but Santiago, I think the
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: line would look a little wide if it only stays
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: on the feet. We like upside. We like takedowns and
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: control time. 9,100, Louie has that. Any win at 7,100
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: would be fine from Santiago. So this is a fight.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: I do like as well. I'll let Big Marley go
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: first if you want to try this.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: I'm okay.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: All right, yeah. I'm all right as well. Maybe later.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: I don't want to get caught saying something dumb, but
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: all right. Let's keep it rolling to the next fight
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: on the card. Another mid-tier fight. Sean Woodson, minus 148.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Jack Jenkins, plus 128. Plus 135 for this fight to finish,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: which is one of the four fights expected to go
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: the distance. The underdog, slightly better inside the distance prop. Jenkins,
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: plus 298. Woodson plus 300. Looking at this as like
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: a striker. The stone kind of shows a striker in
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Woodson versus a wrestler in Jenkins. Jenkins has good leg kicks.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: I still will never understand how Woodson can make 145, though.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: 6'2 and 78-inch reach. That'll give him 7 inches in height,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: 10 inches in reach advantage in this one. All fights
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: of Sean Woodson's just look funny because he towers over
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: these guys and looks like a pencil. But I'm really
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: curious to see how this one goes down in real life.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: What do you think?
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Woodson's going to have a clear striking edge.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: It's going to be a lot longer. He's going to
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: be pumping out that jab. And I think he could
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: box up Jenkins. But Jenkins does have nasty leg kicks.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: I think he can chop that front leg down, slow
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Woodson down on the feet. And Jenkins should be wrestling
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: in this matchup. I think he should go for multiple
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: takedowns in each round. But he should be chopping that
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: leg down too. And the more he can chop the
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: leg down, I think it's going to be harder for
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: Woodson to keep getting up. So Jenkins is my favorite,
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: one of my favorite underdogs on the card. just because
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: he should be mixing in takedowns. I like his all-around game,
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: but he does have a high pace when he's on
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: the ground. And Woods ends up pretty much striker only.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: So I think Jenkins could rack up strike, not significant strikes,
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: but just strikes that are on the ground. And he
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: could also get maybe five takedowns or so, possibly hurt
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: that lead leg as well, maybe even get a TKO
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: that way. But give me Jenkins to pull off the upset.
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: Don't really feel confident about him winning, but I do
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: like that this fight is in the mid-range. Both sides
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: are in play. But I would just rather have the underdog.
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: You're on mute.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Mute. What a mute donkey. I'm in agreement. I'm glad
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: you went first. Jenkins has the wrestling upside. He has
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: the leg kick upside. He's also 600 cheaper. 78 has
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: a chance to be optimal at 7,800, whereas 78 is
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: drawing very thin at 8,400. So close fight. I'm not
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: confident in the winner. I think how Woodson deals with
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: the leg kicks is going to be the main thing
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: because Woodson does have good takedown defense. Um, and the
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: jab should be money at range, but sometimes he doesn't
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: use his reach as well as he should. Um, so yeah,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: if it gets, if he doesn't use his reach well,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: I think leg kicks will be money from Jenkins. This
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: fight is expected to go the distance though in the
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: mid tier. So give me the 600 savings and Jenkins
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: as my preferred play. Next fight on the card, we
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: got Long Zhao taking on Francisco Nuzi minus 180 long
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: plus 150 is Nuzi minus 110 for this fight to finish.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: Long plus 190 inside the distance. Newsy plus 325. Take
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: it away.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, Long's out. He's got power in his hands,
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: but he just doesn't throw enough volume. He's one of
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: those boring strikers, in my opinion, but he could catch
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: Newsy with something big. I think his biggest edge in
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: this matchup, though, would be takedowns. Newsy looks like a
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: primary striker, and I think he can struggle off of
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: his back. So if Long Zhao can go in there
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: and get takedowns, I think he's live to win a
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: decision with multiple takedowns. But even if he's doing that,
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: I just don't think he's going to land enough strikes
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: in top control to really have a big ceiling. And
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: on the feet, I think Newsy is the more exciting striker.
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: I think he's going to be higher on volume. He's
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: got more tools in his striking toolbox. So it's another
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: one where I like the underdog to pull off the upset.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: He's $ 200 cheaper than Jenkins. So I don't know who
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: I like more, but I think those are two of
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: my favorite dogs on the card. I plan on being
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: overweight to both of them. And Long Zhao is an
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: underweight play for me. If I'm making 10 lineups, I'll
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: probably fully fade Long Zhao. I really have no interest
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: in his style for DFS.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: Do you think he wrestles in this one, though? Nine
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: wins by submission. I think four were by KO, maybe five.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: He hasn't wrestled as much in the UFC as I
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: was expecting, but it feels like a matchup that it
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: definitely would be smart to do so.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he will just based on the line.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: But I don't know that he's the smartest dude. I
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: don't know how much he'll wrestle. So I would rather
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: just take my chances on the underdog.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, fair enough. I put this one as like the classic,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: even with the field on both sides. I think they're
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: going to both be relatively low owned when you play both,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: especially long. I think that's like one of your ways
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: to get difference. Post 190 inside the distance isn't bad.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: He's live for a bank at any time. And the
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: sub props only short or slightly worse. Then his KO prop,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: so that means I think he does wrestle. At least
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: he should wrestle. And anytime you wrestle 8,600 relatively low owned,
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: I would have some interest. And then, yeah, Newsy, solid
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: money line, probably the better striker. Only 7,600. Probably my
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: preferred play when it's all said and done. But I
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: expect probably Newsy to be higher owned than Long due
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: to the savings and needing to play some dogs. All right,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: let's go to a couple fights that have some big favorites.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: This one is the second biggest favorite on the card
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: and the highest price. Ray Souria, minus 760. Kevin Borjas,
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: plus 538. Minus 205 for this fight to finish. Souria,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: minus 185 inside the distance. Borjas, plus 875. Souria, round one,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: plus 165. We're talking line movement. Souria has been hammered
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: in a lot of ways. Minus 500, he opened on
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: the money line. Now minus 760. This fight opened minus
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: 155 to finish, now minus 205. Soria opened minus 130
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: inside the distance, now minus 185. He also opened plus
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: 230 in round one, now plus 165. All of the
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: money is coming on him in every which way. With
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: that being said, he's 9,700. He can get a round
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: one submission in a minute, nine seconds and probably bust.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: So can Borjas get up if he's taken down? I
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: think it's the big question.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: Man, I don't know. I kind of do like Saruya
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: round one. I just think it is a pure striker
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: versus grappler matchup. And Saruya is going to be the
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: dominant wrestler who's going to be much better with the
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: submission game. I think Borjas has a better chance of
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: knocking Saruya out than he does keeping it on the
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: feet or getting back up to the feet enough to
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: win a decision. And I still know that he has
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: enough power. So give me Saruya round one. But $ 9, 700,
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: I'm really not trying to get to it unless I'm
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: playing enough underdogs where it makes it easy. But, I mean,
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: $ 200 less for Umar. Umar has a much higher ceiling
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: and kind of the same floor as well. So give
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: me Saruya, but $ 9, 700, I'd be fine if I got none.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: Fair enough. We're going to get to– you already mentioned
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: the Umar. We're going to get to Asakura, but we'll
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: talk about Hassan right away, 97-96. Who would you prefer
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: if you had to choose between those two?
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: Hassan, I just like that. that kid we'll talk about him,
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: but I think he's going to be a good addition.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: To the UFC. Yeah. A lot of people have a
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: lot of hype on or uh are ready for him
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: to come in the ufc so we will get there
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: in a little bit again just want to say appreciate
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: everyone hanging out with us the like button and the
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: subscribe button helps us out a ton and again i
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: already did show a throw it over real quick again
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• 20:37
  Speaker 1: let's hop back to this and let's say hi to
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: the man, Jordan. I saw your ultrasound picture in the
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: discord today. Awesome stuff. Love to hear everything going well.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: And I want to say you said it was a boy,
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: but I could be wrong. Let me know, Jordan. It's
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: been a little while. So let me know again. Yeah.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: Big congrats for sure. All right. We'll keep it rolling
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: to the next fight. On the card, Andre Lima taking
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: on Namsari Batbuyer. Minus 265 Lima. Plus 219 is Batbuyer.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: Minus 210 for this fight to finish. Lima minus 120
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: inside the distance. Batbuyer plus 375. Lima round one plus 275.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: Another fight with some line movement, but this is mainly
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: the inside the distance. It was minus 190 to finish.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: Now minus 210. Lima was minus 115. Now minus 120.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Batbuyer plus 400. now plus 375. I mean, I like
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: this bat buyer cap because all of his fights end
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: inside the distance. I think he'll force Lima to fight,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: and I think Lima is better when it's all said
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: and done, wherever the fight takes place. Terrible fight against
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: Borjas last time out, but Borjas ran around. Lima couldn't
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: cut off the cage. I think it's a completely different matchup,
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: and I think he gets back on track, and I
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: definitely have some interest at 9K.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like this fight because of the bat buyer side.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's just full aggression. He's going to go
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: in there and try to knock out Lima and he's
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: going to be right out of the gates too. So
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: I think his aggression is going to make Lima fight
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: with a much more urgency than in his last fight.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: And I agree that Lima is just the more skilled,
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: more technical fighter all around. The longer it goes, the
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: more it favors him. But I think he's got enough
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: power to knock him out in the first round too,
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: while bat buyer is getting crazy. So If Batbuyer wins,
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: I think $ 7, 200 does put him on the optimal lineup
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: because there's a good chance it'll be a finish. But
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: Lima at 9K, typically I wouldn't like his style at
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: 9K on DFS. But against Batbuyer, I think he is
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: live for a pretty big score here. So, yeah, I
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: like Andre Lima. I like the fight as a whole.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: I thought about putting this one as a five-star, actually.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: So we'll see what I end up with once I
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: start building lineups. But Lima is probably the reason I
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: took it off of a five-star. It's kind of hard
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: to make a Lima fight. five-star, especially when he's coming
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: off a loss. And what's his nuts? Borja scored like
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: 50 points in a win. So it's tough to do
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: a five-star right after that.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: For sure. Both only landed 51 significant strikes. Like Nicholas said,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: shit the bed at minus 600. I hope people game blog,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: watch and think that because yeah, it's just a completely
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: different fight. Styles make fights. If one guy's going to
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: be in your face pressuring for 15 minutes and the
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: other guy's running around the Octagon for 15 minutes, it's
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: a lot easier to score than, in wins with the
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: guy pressuring. And that is what Bat Buyer does. That
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: means I definitely have interest in Bat Buyer at his price.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: If he wins, he should score. And I have interest
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: in Lima because I think he can wrestle. I think
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: he can knock out Bat Buyer. And I'm just hoping
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: Bat Buyer makes this a fun fight. So yeah, sign
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: me up on both sides. I probably would have it
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: as a four-star too, like you do. I think I
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: see it very similar all the way around. Again, Lima
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: is favored to finish at minus 120. All right, we
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: kind of, Tipped her hand a little bit, but now
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: the biggest favorite on the card, Bilal Hassan, minus 800.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Taking on Nilsson Rojas, plus 561. Minus 210 for this
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: fight to finish. Hassan, minus 200 inside the distance. Rojas,
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: plus 1,000. Hassan in round one, open plus 175. Now
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: plus 170. He opened minus 500 on the money line
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: and is now minus 800. So he's the second highest priced,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: but the biggest favorite. on the card, a lot of
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: hype on this guy. And some people are probably like,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: what the heck? Like I've never heard of him. He
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: was on episode one this year of Dana White's contender series,
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: got a 45 second knockout. And then everyone's falling in
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: love with him. I mean, he's good. He's nine to
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: know before that, but he's been huge favorites over pretty
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: much everyone as he is again this week. But I
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: think it was like minus 4,500. I contender series or something.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: So a step up in competition, uh, not the biggest,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: biggest step up, but yeah, he should roll. What does
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: he need to do at 9,600 though? 9,600.
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: I think we just need a knockout, maybe multiple knockdowns
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: if it's not in the first round, but I mean,
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: he's minus 185, I believe inside the distance plus 215
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: in round one. And I just like this kid's skills
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: when he is fast, he's technical, he's got good kicks.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: He's just dangerous, man. He's going to be, he's going
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: to be trying to knock Rojas out. And I think
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: that typically a grappler is what we wouldn't want to
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: see this kid go against. But in this fight, I
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: think Hassan has the grappling edge to Rojas. I'd say
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: he's a solid boxer. Maybe he's got more one punch
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: power than Hassan, but I just think he has to
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: knock Hassan out. I just have a hard time seeing
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: him beat Hassan in a three round striking match. Hassan's
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: just going to be faster. throwing more strikes from all angles.
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: And I think eventually he is going to knock Rojas out.
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: So I upped it to a four star. I also
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: lowered Saruya down to a two star that fight.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: Okay. I mean, like, does he have 170 significant strike
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: late third round upside? And like, I feel like that's
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: kind of what we need. He feels like a good
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: volume striker. He can put it on We need that
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: at 9,600. I wouldn't put it past him. I think
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: he could do that.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I would project that, but I
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: think it's definitely a possibility.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, obviously can't project that. If you had to pick
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: an underdog against like a Song Yedong, Rojas, Kevin Borjas,
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: do you have a preference? Do you plan on playing
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: any of them? A Richie Long you can throw in there?
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: Shit, yeah. I don't really like any of them. Probably
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: gets to Santiago when I start really wanting to play him,
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: but I'd be okay with 150. I'd be okay with
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: a little bit of Borjas, a little bit of Yedong.
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: I don't, wait, Rojas, not Borjas. I don't want to
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: play any Borjas, I don't think. Rojas I'm more interested
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: in just because he does have power. He's 9-0 too,
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: I believe. He's never lost. He is a good fighter.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: It's just that all the hype is around this Hassan kid.
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: That's who the UFC wants to win as well. So
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: I think we've got to pretty much get to 7,100
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: for me to really start hand-billed picking lineups.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: For sure. And I agree with that. I mean, I
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: would pick Song, the easy pick. Expected to go 25 minutes.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: I still don't love it, though. But I do think
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: most people do kind of start their lineup 7K and
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: above when it comes to underdogs and avoid that really
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: low tier. So that is a way to get different
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: if you are choosing to do so in large field stuff.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: All right, we got five fights left. The most likely
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: fight to finish on the card, see Louie minus 185,
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: take it on Levi Rodriguez. Plus 161, minus 700 for
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: this fight to finish. Louie minus 165 inside the distance.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Rodriguez plus 210. Louie round one, plus 145. Rodriguez plus 325.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: Both guys have taken money on the round one prop.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Louie open plus 175, now plus 145. Rodriguez open plus 350,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: now plus 325. Under 1.5 opened plus 105, now minus 200. Yeah,
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: when we see a minus 200 for under 1.5 and 8,700
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: and 7,500, that is the definition of a load-up fight
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: for me. I guess Rodriguez is my preferred side since
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: he's 1,200 cheaper and we need dogs, but that is
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: my only logic for that. I would love to be
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: overweight on both, ideally. What do you see in this one?
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is just my favorite fight to target as
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: a whole. I'd just be fine with either side. I
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: think it's going to be a banger. Both guys, strikers
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: going to be trying to knock the other's head off.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: I don't expect takedowns, but if there are some, I
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: would imagine it's on the Rodriguez side. Louie is a kickboxer.
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: I think I saw a couple of takedowns from him,
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: but I just think that the Brazilian is much more
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: likely to have any any success on the mat, but
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: I just think they're going to go out there and
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: stand and bang. And I think one guy falls on
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: the first round. So first round knockout from either one
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: of these guys at these prices is likely on the
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: optimal lineup. I'm picking Louie to get it done. But if,
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: if I'm struggling with underdogs on this card, I have
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: no idea just going, I mean, no problem going to
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: Rodriguez instead. And that'll probably get me more, uh, Umar
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: exposure and, uh, maybe some Hassan as well. Yeah.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: I like it. Uh, again, Great fight to target. I
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: hope someone gets knocked out in round one. I want
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Rodriguez right now. I plan on being more overweight because
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: of the 1,200 savings. If I love everything in my
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: script and I have more Louie or more overweight there,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: I'd be totally fine. But I do know I want
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: a bunch of this fight regardless. All right, let's get
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: to a rematch from May 30th of this year. Sumadarji
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: minus 215, Alex Perez plus 183, minus 160 for this
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: fight to finish. Sumadarji plus 125 inside the distance Perez
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: plus 300 so this fight ended uh round two due
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: to low blows on the Sumadarji side but man it
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: was I was picked Alex Perez mainly for DFS I
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: preferred him in the last fight he was the dog
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: he had the wrestling upside Sumadarji just a striker All
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: of that still holds true. But I have a hard
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: time seeing the fight go different from the first one.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: And it was all Sumadarji. The speed advantage, the striking.
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: It wasn't even competitive. So I guess I'm not too
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: shocked to see it only minus 215. 10 minutes is
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: a small sample size. They're humans. Every day to day
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: is different. But man, what's Alex Perez going to come
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: in and do in this fight? Sumadarji got to take down.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: Perez didn't. What's Perez going to come in and do
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: that's going to change the fight and make him win?
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: Just come out of the gates hot and land in takedowns,
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: possibly go for an early submission. But yeah, I think
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: Perez is going to have to have early success or
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: else Sumadar is just going to pick him apart and
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: probably finish him at some point. I could definitely see
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: Perez looking for the door again. Hopefully not the same
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: way as the last time, but I think I picked
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: Perez as well. And I think at $ 7, 400, I when
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: you're looking for DFS underdogs, he's the type of guy
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: you want because he is a good wrestler. He's going
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: to have the submission edge. He just knocked out a
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: Charles Johnson not too long ago too. So he's got
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: power in his hands, but yeah, that fight was all Sumadarji, man.
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: It looked like my Perez lineups were trash. I mean,
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: they were trash, but I felt like I was okay
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: going into that fight. And then Sumadarji just ruined all
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: my chances and Perez is lucky. He looked for a
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: way out because he was going to lose that fight.
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: And I think that, Sumadarji is the clear pick this time,
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: but I put it as a three and three because
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: Sumadarji is primarily, I would say a striker only. I
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: don't expect him to go out there and get takedowns.
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: He did in the first, he got one in the
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: first fight, but he's going to try and knock out Perez.
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: He is just a better, longer, faster striker. And I
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: think Perez will look for the door. So I'm fine
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: at $ 8, 800 for Sumadarji, but he almost needs a knockout,
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: I think. And then any win from Perez is going
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: to be all right. So 7,400, I'm okay with that still.
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: Who would your preferred play be if you had to choose?
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: What was that?
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: Who would your preferred play be if you had to choose?
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: At these prices, I guess the rest of the card
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: is what's going to depend on who's my preferred play.
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: If I'm looking for an underdog, then I'm fine with Perez.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: But I guess if I'm making one lineup and I
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: have to use this one, gosh, I feel like I
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: probably wouldn't use this fight with one lineup. So maybe Sumidarji.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in the same boat. If I had one lineup,
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: I probably don't get there. Like, again, it's from what
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: I said. I think Sumadarji wins. It's hard to pick
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: against him from what we saw in the last fight,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: but he's 8,800 over, let's see, over two and a
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: half is plus 105. Like more than likely, or it's
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: not supposed to end in the first two rounds. The
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: third round knockup from Sumadarji probably isn't enough. Even if
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: he scores 99, which is good at 8,800, it's not
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: guaranteed to be optimal. So, Kind of like the fight
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: we talked about with Long and Newsy earlier, where it's
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: even with the field all the way around. Perez, if
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: he wins, he'll score. So I want some. But I'm
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: picking Sumadarji even in some of his wins. Probably most
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: of his wins, though. He's not optimal. So I want
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: to taper my exposure a little bit. Around the field
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: on both, I guess Sumadarji may be my preferred play.
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: But I don't love this fight too much. But it
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: has outs. It has outs for the optimal at moderate ownership.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: All right, we got three fights left on the card.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Big favorite, Kai Asakura, minus 470. Richie Long, plus 364.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: Minus 255 inside the distance for Asakura. Excuse me, plus
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: 840 for Richie Long. Asakura in round one, plus 125.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: So he's the fourth biggest favorite on the card, but
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: he is the most likely to win inside the distance
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: and in round one. His draw on one prop, open
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: plus 170. Now plus 125. His inside the distance prop
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: open minus 200, now minus 255. He's 9,400, 100 less
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: than Umar, 200 less than Hassan. He's fighting with a
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: really tough group in the upper tier. But, man, he
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: should style on a Richie Long. I think he knocks
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: him out in round one. You're just hoping, I guess,
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: you get more than one knockdown, I guess. But, yeah,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: I'm going to play Asakura. How does he match up
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: against those other guys? I prefer Umar in a vacuum.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: I prefer a sign in a vacuum, but it's a
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: $ 200 difference. And if you leave that 200, it's a
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: way to get different. I don't even hate leaving the
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: 100 and really chalky lineups from Umar, but it is
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: a little scary. What are your thoughts on, yeah, leaving
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: the money from Umar from a sign and then just
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: this fight in general. Yeah.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: Um, I'm fine with it. Cause I do like Oscar
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: to get a first round knockout. Another one where Arishi
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: Lang's aggression probably is going to help that happen. Um,
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: If Asakura doesn't get a first-round knockout, I really don't
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: like the $ 9, 400. I just don't think he has 170
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: strikes in his game like Hassan could. So, first-round knockout
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: or bust at $ 9, 400, I'd say. Richie Lang, maybe he's
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: the lowest I'd want to go with hand-built lineups. He
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: is an aggressive fighter. If he wins, I'd expect him
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: to score well, but I just think he gets knocked
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: out early.
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: I do, too. Well, yeah, now that you're saying it, what, plus...
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Let's get out that good old odds converter. He is
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: plus 363. Is that what he was? Plus 364. Plus
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: 364 is 21.6%, and his ownership will probably be about
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: half that. So, again, that's why if you're looking at
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: contest flashback on SaberSim or other reverse engineering what the
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: pros do, when they play 150, even if they're playing
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: 75-plus teams, usually they're playing every single fighter because every
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: fighter does have a chance. to win if you believe
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: that odds are somewhat efficient. Plus 364 is 21.5%. We
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: play an ownership-based game. When you win, how much do
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: you win? A reach you long checks out to be
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: one of the more solid plays when dumpster diving, if
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: you are looking at all that. So I don't hate it.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: And we just saw in a contender series on Tuesday,
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: what was Frank Muir's daughter or whatever? Was like minus 5,000
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: favorite or loss or something? Like anything can happen.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: Minus 6,000. Minus 6,000.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Loses a unanimous decision. So, yeah, the lower the level,
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: the more likely randomness, I guess, happens. But minus 6,000
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: is minus 6,000. So maybe a Richie Long gets the
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: job done and breaks the slate this week. All right,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: two fights left. Co-main event time. One expected to go
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: the distance. Jan Jaunan, minus 150. Denise Gomes, plus 130.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: Plus 200 for this fight to finish. The underdog in Gomes,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: better inside the distance prop, plus 310. Jan, plus 525.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, paying $ 8, 500 for someone that's plus $ 525 inside
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: the distance who is a striker is just not something
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: I'm looking to do. So Jonan's a fade. And I'm
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: going to play some Gomes, though. A, she has a
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: better inside the distance prop at plus $ 310. If someone wrestles,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: I think it's her. And she has some knockout power.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Seven of her 12 wins by KO. So do I
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: love Gomes? No. I think Jan probably wins the decision.
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: But if having to choose a fighter for DFS... I'm
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: definitely saving the 800. So it's Gomes or bust for me.
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I agree. I'm picking Jan to win.
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: I think it mostly stays on the feet and Jan
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: is the better, more powerful striker, I think. And it
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: is in China, but she does struggle off her back
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: and she's 37 years old now. Younger fighter, 10 years
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: younger wins like 66% of the time. So maybe the
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: odds should be a little bit closer. And if Gomes
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: does win, I think she'll probably score more than 10
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: X that $ 7, 700 price. So, I'm cool with her being
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: the preferred player of the two, especially because I really
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: don't care for this fight very much. It's hard to
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: pay $ 8, 500 for Yana, a really pure striker.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, very, very tough for me to do that. If
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: I had to fade one fighter on the card above 7K,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: I think that is the one I am choosing this week.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: All right, it's time for the main events. I will
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: be up for this one for sure. We have a
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: big favorite in Umar Namagomedov coming in at minus 600.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Taking on the hometown guy in Song Yedong, plus 425,
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: plus 170 for this fight to finish. Umar, plus 215
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: inside the distance. Song, plus 675. Umar, round one, plus 700.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: He's not probably going to finish, but all but one
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: of his wins have scored over 100. With that being said,
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: is 105 enough on this card? Is 110 enough on
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: this card? I'm not sure. I'm definitely going to play Umar.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: I think he's a monster. He's going to wrestle. When
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: you wrestle for 25 minutes, you always have all the
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: upside in the world. But there are fights. Like the
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: Figge fight last time, I think he scored 75. It
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: was a three-run fight. But even if that was a
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: 25-minute fight, he wasn't going to get there more than likely.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: So I don't think this is an all-in fight. I'm
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: definitely going to play Umar. But I think you can, again,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: drop Umar to Asakura and leave 100. And that's a
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: way you can get different. As far as the Song
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: Yedong side... I don't love it, but he's 6,700 in
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: a fight that's expected to go 25 minutes. He could
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: back himself in to 45 DraftKings points just doing random stuff.
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: If no underdogs win or very few win, 6,700 can
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: open up a lot, especially if the upper tier absolutely smashes,
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: which is very possible. So I think he comes in
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: over-owned because he's the main event fighter. So I'll probably
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: be underweight, but I don't think fading Song's my favorite approach.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I do think that Richie Long pivot is
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: very interesting. More than his median projection will be way worse.
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: When Song wins versus a Richie Long, it actually might
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: be relatively close, but I do think a Richie Long
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: more likely to win by a decent bit, which books
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: are saying as well. So Umar Aminan, not a lock. Song,
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: I think is an underweight play. I think he's over-owned.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: but I think he can get there in a loss sometimes.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: What are you doing in this one?
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm probably going to load up on Umar just
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: because he, his clear edge in this one would be
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: the wrestling and he could rack up 10 takedowns in
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: this fight with 25 minutes to work with. Song Yudong
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: is a nasty striker. I mean, Umar's a good striker too,
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: but that's how he could lose the fight is staying
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: on the feet too long because Yudong could knock him out.
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: And if it, if we are taking out takedowns, I
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: think Yudong could win a five round striking base decision too. But,
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: Since that's the case, I think Umar will be going
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: pretty wrestle heavy in this one. He could be pretty
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: active too. I think he has probably the highest ceiling
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: on the card, especially in the decision. So 9,500, I
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: like him more than Saruya. I like him more than
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: Hassan and Asakura too. So he's probably my favorite fight
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: on the card. And if I'm hand-building, I'm probably not
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: going to get to Yedong. But with MME, yeah, you
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: got to mix him in because, I mean, he is–
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: a top-notch fighter, and it wouldn't shock me to see
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: him knock out Umar and completely be on the optimal lineup.
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: For sure. Yeah, he's a top-notch fighter when you do
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: play an underdog like that. No, return. Sorry. When you
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: do play an underdog that's such a big underdog like this,
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: you want him to be elite. That is what Song
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: Yedong is. If he can keep it on the feet,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: which is a lot bigger if than I expect, yeah,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: he could piece up Umar, go to the light kicks. Nurmagomedov, though,
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: it's just not something I bet against. And it's been
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: profitable going about that. So I'm going to continue to
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: play a lot of Umar and be underweight on his opponents.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: That is all 13 fights. Again, this is in Shanghai,
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: China at 3 a.m.
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: Eastern.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: So make sure you do get all your lineups in
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: Friday night. All of our content will be uploaded in
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: the Sabreson projections ownership. We are just waiting on FanDuel
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: to add Louis Say and Levi Rodriguez, which is our
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: favorite fight to target on the card. So come on, FanDuel.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: Get that up. I got nothing more to add. Always
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: love talking fights with you. I think this could be
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: a sneaky good card in terms of violence. If you're
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: watching it, definitely have some fun. I will probably be
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: trying to wake up to a sweat over here. Good luck,
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Big Marley. Any final thoughts from you?
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, man. I hope to wake up to a sweat
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: as well. I hate when the cards are at 3 a.m.
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: There's just no way I'm going to wake up that early.
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: But I'm cool missing those. you know, first three fights.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: Hopefully I wake up to that Woods and Jenkins fight
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: with a little bit of, I don't know if I'll
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: have a sweat unless I guess Louie, Louie or Santiago.
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know. We'll see about it at that point.
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'll wake up later, but China card, I'm going
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: to need a sweat for it to be interesting. So
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: good luck to you, title. Good luck to everybody listening.
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: Let's ship it.
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. I'll probably be waking up. Maybe the Hassan fight,
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: maybe Sumadar. I don't know. The little one has been
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: up a lot, starting to, T starting to pop through,
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: but the wife has been a trooper taking care of
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: most of it. So maybe I'll take a shift and
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: watch it or something, trying to get them down. But
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: we'll see. Appreciate everyone hanging out. Hit that like, hit
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: that subscribe. On the way out, NFL less than two
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: weeks away. Definitely get over to Shippenation.com. Check out all
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: of our packages, NFL only. Five days for $ 19. We
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: also do have single sport MMA if you just play
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: MMA and want to join us. MMA goes on pretty
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: much every single week. So you cannot beat that deal.
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: Awesome stuff. Good luck this week in Big Marley. You
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: enjoy the week for Big Marley. I'm Titletown. Good luck.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: Be safe. Peace.