Latest / Upper Hand Fantasy / 2026 Week 5 Buys, Holds and Sells: 18 Trade Calls Built on Usage

Transcript

2026 Week 5 Buys, Holds and Sells: 18 Trade Calls Built on Usage · Upper Hand Fantasy

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: One of my cells this week is a guy a lot of fantasy managers are doing victory laps around right now.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: He just had the single biggest performance of the fantasy season, and I think you should be shopping him today.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: One month in, this is about the time people start figuring out what they actually have.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Saquon Barkley managers are realizing that they need another running back fast.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Kenneth Walker managers are realizing that bye weeks are already here, and Bryce Young managers have a top five quarterback in points per game that they drafted super late or grabbed off waivers.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Whatever situation you're in going into week five, I went through the usage, the route participation, the target share, expected fantasy points per route run, all of it.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: I've got buys, holds, and sells for you.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: So that's what we're doing today buys, holds, and sells.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get into it.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start with a few buys.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: DeAndre Swift is number one.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone's down on Swift right now, and I get it.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: Two lost fumbles already this year.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: And after the last one, Ben Johnson didn't let him back on the field at all, which is how Monongay ended up with that huge day.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: He's on notice for sure.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think there's any way Monongay actually takes his backfield over though.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: Ben Johnson loves Swift.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: They just paid him.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: That felt a lot more like sending a message than anything else.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: So once Caleb Williams is back, this Bears offense is going to be really good.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm taking advantage of people panicking and buying what I think is an every week RB2, even before Caleb Williams is back.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: Not worried about it.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is Parker Washington.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: This was Washington's first down game of the year, and everyone's already forgetting what he did in the other three games.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: Fifth in the league in target share 30% through three weeks.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: And even after this one game, he's at 26% of the season, which still leads the Jags by a mile.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: He was shadowed by DJ Turner on about two-thirds of his routes, and he had a 30-yard touchdown taken off the board because he stepped out of bounds.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: Lawrence basically just spammed Brendan Strange all game long for a target share that is just not happening again.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: It was at over 40% in this game, and he was going up against the Bengals, which that's what the Bengals allow.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: So Eagles and Texans are next, both way better matchups.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Quinyon Mitchell hurt.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm buying him while the vibes are low.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: Michael Wilson's up next.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: I was buying Wilson last week, and I'm still buying him high this week.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: 17 targets, 13 targets these last two games, 29% target share through four games.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: Since week three, he's leading the team by a mile of 36%.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: You think about that for a second.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: He wasn't earning targets like this last year with Marvin Harris Jr.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: on the field at all.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: And now he's doing it with Marv healthy.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: Arizona's gonna be in a lot of negative game scripts, and he gets some lines at home this week, and he's gonna blow up.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: Some people are not gonna treat him like an every week wide receiver too until he, you know, puts together a few more games, and that's exactly why you got to go get him now before that happens.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: Josh Downs is next up, man.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: I get it.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: Week four, huge letdown for Downs after all the hype.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: Great matchup against the commanders, and you know, I want to take advantage of that emotion, right?
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: There's nothing worse than like that type of letdown.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: So any manager who is kind of going through it with downs, he's done with downs.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: You know, Laquan Treble is not gonna keep out targeting Josh Downs.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: He had a 30% target share in each of the two weeks before this game.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: The whole Colts passing offense just couldn't get going.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm treating this as a one-off.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: He has a history of efficiency and strong target earning ability, and that ugly box score is gonna make him cheap.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: The upside here is just way more than what you'll have to spend to get him.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: I'm also buying George Pickens.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: Dallas is running the fifth most efficient offense of the century in points per drive, and George Pickens doesn't have a touchdown yet.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's gonna change.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: And CD's been balling and he's averaging 151 receiving yards and a touchdown over his last three games.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: But before CD's 21 target game, Pickens had a 24% target share.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: And that kind of volume in this offense is way too good to stay quiet.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: He was drafted like a wide receiver one.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: He's been invisible in the box scores, so I get it.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: There are frustrating managers out there, you know, watching CD, you know, run everything right now.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: I think there's a real bywindow here for George Pickens.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: He will regress to the mean in a positive way.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: Someone who isn't as highly sought after is Casey Concepcion.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: He was part-time the first two weeks, but he's been full-time the last two weeks while leading the team in target share 25% since week three.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: Top 12 in first read target share among all receivers.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: He's third in design target rate behind only Debo and Rashi Rice.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: So Todd Monkey is clearly going out of his way to get him the ball in space.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: And Cleveland's offense is kind of solid.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: So he's averaging seven points a game right now.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: But if this role holds and Deshaun Watson keeps playing serviceable football, the production's gonna follow.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Like in this past game, he looked really good, and he even left some stuff on the field.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'd buy before he blows up.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: A couple guys I'm holding.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: Quinshaw Junkins is number one.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: There were two concerns with Junkins coming in the offense and whether he'd have any role in the passing game.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: Well, he's taken over 70% of the design carries for them, top 10 and target share among running backs, which is pretty legit.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's workhorse usage, so that box is pretty much checked.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: The Browns' offense hasn't been nearly as bad as we thought they were.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: Like they're not the best offense in the world, but they're three and one.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: They're getting way more, you know, neutral and positive game scripts than anyone would expect.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not all the way bought in on this team just yet, and I'm I'm not selling him in case the Browns are actually, you know, somewhat legit moving forward.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: Carnell Tate's up next.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: I'm holding him.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: Nine of 12 targets for 145 yards, and I think a lot of people are tempted to sell here, and I totally get it.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: I'm fine doing it, but like, how much are you really gonna get for this, right?
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: Like, he had his first breakout game, 20-point game of his career, uh, 30% target share for the season.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: That's fourth in the NFL.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's only behind JSN, Devontae Smith, and CeeDee Lamb.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: So this is a full-time target-earning rookie who did it in his fourth NFL game with a great college profile.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: But I just can't get myself to sell a potential breakout rookie receiver, no matter how bad the team is around him.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: Luther Burton's up next.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: I gotta hold him too.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: It's been a weird start in Chicago.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: You know, obviously no Caleb, Khalif Raymond's little, you know, Lin Sanity run.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, he didn't do anything to this last game.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Good.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and the Bears just running the ball a ton, right?
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: Burton's leading the team in target share despite not running a full complement of routes.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, that latter part, if that doesn't change, his ceiling is gonna be capped.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: But he is top 10 in target rate among qualifying receivers.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: So when he is on the field, he is being targeted.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: He's still averaging over two yards per route run.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: He was super efficient as a rookie, obviously.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and he's efficient again this year.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um, the upside is a weekly wide receiver one, but those routes need to go up.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: If they don't, he's capped at you know, wide receiver like 20 or 18-ish.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, if he's super efficient.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: But as of now, not selling him just yet.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: Kenyon Sadiq holding him.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: I know, I know, I know.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Rough outing on Sunday.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: But you know, you look at what actually happened.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: The Jets only ran 32 plays in this game.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: Teams normally run somewhere between 60 and 70 plays.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Chicago had more first downs than the Jets had plays.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: Think about that for a second.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: Sadiq's target share barely shifted, even though he had zero points.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: 22% in week three, 21% in week four.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: So the role was still there.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: He even, his route participation even grew in this game.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: The offense just never had the ball.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: His routes have gone up every single week.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: He's a very high-end talent, obviously.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: He showed what he was capable of in week three.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not convinced he goes away even when A.D.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Mitchell is back or even when Mason Taylor's back.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think better days are ahead.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not dropping him or selling him off of game like that.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: And Mike Buka is up next.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: He's just one of those guys you can't buy or you can't sell, right?
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: He's averaging nine points a game, 19% targets here, not good.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: He's missing his starting quarterback, not good.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: The offense has been super rough, uh, obviously, even without Baker Mayfield, like, you know, they're draft, they're starting an undrafted rookie quarterback right now.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: Um, the Bucs do get the Cowboys on Thursday, but I'm probably still looking at other options in my lineup.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: I I think he's better than what he's shown.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: It's just gonna be hard for him to overcome any of this until Baker's back.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: And even when Baker was around these first few weeks, like it wasn't all that good anyway.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: But you know, the market for him is ridiculously low right now.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I can see four or no teams trying to grab him for pennies on the dollar.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: So you just have to suck it up and hold for now.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: Jalen Waddell, I'm holding.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: He's been pretty average so far.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: He's not hurting you, not helping you, you know, given where you took him.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: But he's honestly looked better on the field than the box score says.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: Pat Bryant being out should mean more targets, and this hasn't looked like a typical Sean Peyton offense with Davis Webb calling the plays.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: They've been playing it super safe.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: There's a chance that Peyton takes overplay calling at some point, please.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, Denver's, you know, has some tough games to open the season.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: If Waddle separates as the top target earner, which he will, he bounces back at some point.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think you get anything in the trade right now that matches that type of upside.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: So gotta hold for now.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: Got a few sells for you, starting with Alvin Kamara.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: He scored twice.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: He handled both of the Saints' goal line carries, which is good, but those two touchdowns are covering up a 41% snap share.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: He's getting just 36% of the backfield carries.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: Uh towards the end of the game, they kind of leaned away from him, but he did, you know, leave the game with a knee injury for a little bit.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but you know, the passing game work, you know, it might not carry him every week on its own, right?
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_00: Tough matchup against the Vikings this upcoming week, you know, on a pass first Saints offense.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: The production is just way ahead of the roll, you know, in terms of what he did on Monday night.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: I want to get out, I would want to package him up to another manager in your league who desperately needs a running back.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: Package him up with maybe a wide receiver and then go upgrade to get a better wide receiver or something like that.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: I'll sell him to anyone who is willing to bite.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: Ollie Gordon's up next.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: He also had a good performance.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: Nine carries, though, that's not really gonna cut it.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's not gonna turn to 100 yards every week.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: Most of his fantasy points came on one play.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: 11 total opportunities on this Dolphins offense isn't enough to hold up the RB2 value people are putting on him.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: If the Vikings, you know, actually scored touchdowns in that game, they scored five field goals instead, we probably see a totally different game script and a different outcome.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_00: This is also Jalen Wright's first game, you know, uh, of the season, and I'm not confident he stays at 30% of the snaps and carries like he did in week four.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: Now they did give him an opportunity in the first half, didn't really come through, so they leaned towards Gordon in this game in the second half, but I'm not convinced that you know there's gonna be enough here for Gordon to sustain.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: But if someone offers you like AJ Brown for like, you know, Gordon and like a Devon Vele or something like that, or you know, you offer that.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: I'm doing it, I'm doing that all day if I can be a little patient, if they have that luxury.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: The game log just looks really pretty right now.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: So and a lot of people just obviously look at that.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: I would take advantage of that.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's gonna be a lot easier to sell today than after next week.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: Debo Samuel's up next.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: This is a good offense, and Debo is gonna be very usable every week.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: And honestly, it's been fun watching vintage Debo, but the volume just isn't there, right?
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: It's kind of gadget usage, right?
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: He scored 15.4 fantasy points in week three without a single target.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: He's overperforming on his opportunities.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: He's one of the easiest guys to sell this week, in my opinion.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: I'd move him in a package deal for something more locked in, like, you know, maybe like uh, you know, repackage him up and get a Garrett Wilson coming off a quiet game or a Parker Washington coming off a quiet game, you know, consistent high-end players who, you know, are just gonna beat these type of uh streaky producers over a full season because like they're just not getting volume and he's also not getting a full route participation either.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: Devon Velle, I mentioned him.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: I want to sell him as well.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: He's getting good raw volume, but because the Saints have been in negative game scripts, that's it's kind of been inflated.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: He's only seen an 18% target share.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: That's fine.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and by the way, like Olave, it seems like he's fine.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: Thank God.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know what he was doing out there at that point in the game, but you know, Jordan Tyson's coming back soon, you know.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: So without that late score against the Falcons, this would have been a much quieter game.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: You wouldn't even have been able to sell him.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: He's been living off negative game scripts and overall pass volume, and I don't want to count that every single week.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: Right now, like if anyone views him as like uh every week wide receiver three or something like that, he's not that, you know, he's more of a flex play.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: I would try to move him, but he's the perfect packageable player uh right now.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: Package him up with Jameson Williams.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: Uh you know, Williams just had his first 100-yard game in the season.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: That was against a Carolina team, missing its top two corners, right?
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_00: And Jared Goff threw it 52 times.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: So even with that volume, still getting not getting a high target share, like enough to depend on him as a wide receiver, too.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: That's the part that worries me.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: Arizona's next, that's a good matchup, then a buy.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: So if you need him this week, you know, you hold him through Arizona.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: But like, you know, 18% target share, not great.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: It's a lot harder to sell a guy going into a buy.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: Jamison and Camara for like Jalen Coker.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: That might be the kind of deal I'd be looking to make, you know, cashing in on two big games for one guy you can actually count on moving forward.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: And finally, Tetteral McMillan.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: 14 catches in week four, more than doubling the 12 he had through the first three games.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: He had five targets the week before.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: But this was just the best possible scenario at home.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: No Jalen Coker, perfect conditions, amazing matchup, like the best matchup for wide receivers.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: You know, in the two games where Coker played most of the snaps, McMillan averaged 13 fantasy points, five catches, compared to 24 points and eight catches with Coker's sideline.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: So his value is never gonna be higher than it is today.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: So I try and go and you know turn him into like a you know, package him up and get a Jamar Chase or another legit wide receiver one, like a Drake London or someone like that, and improve your team.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: And one thing I'd love to do if your flex is weak is that maybe turn him into two players.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: I usually don't like to go one for two, but in this scenario, I think it could work out.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_00: That's gonna be it for this episode.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: If this helped you, please make sure to subscribe to the channel or the podcast wherever you're listening or watching.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: It helps a ton and it's the best way to catch these every single week.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: I'll see you in the next episode this week.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: Starts and sits for week five.