Latest / The Media Odyssey / H1 2026 PART 2: BUBBLES, BALLS, & BIG AGGREGATION
Transcript
- Evan Shapiro: [00:00:00] All right, this is the second half of the season finale of season two of the Media Odyssey podcast. And now we're gonna get into a topic that's very close to my heart 'cause I've been spending hours of my life it feels like years of my life, working on a brand-new project called the ESHAP Cross-Screen Attention Index, and we're gonna discuss that right now. Marion Ranchet: By the time this episode drops, the World Cup will be done. Hopefully France will have won. Otherwise, my heart is gonna be broken, yet for another time. Let's fingers crossed. But the one thing, So let's, move on from sports, but in terms of all of that we're seeing, what we're seeing is that the m- the, the ecosystem is just, keeps fragmenting. It's more and more complicated to get an understanding, [00:01:00] of what's going on, where to invest, whether that's in producing content, where to distribute. A lot of broadcasters are getting heat for working with Netflix or working with Amazon or even YouTube. And I will say that at the core of this, there's one challenge, is that we're unable to properly measure where people are spending time right? And I think this is one of the thing that you've attempted, this is your attempt at fixing this. Do you wanna tell us more about this index that you've created? Evan Shapiro: Yeah. So a couple weeks ago I launched the ESHAP Cross-Screen Attention Index. As far as I can tell it's the first and only attempt on the planet Earth to truly measure all attention across screens across the world. we launched it with eight markets: UK, US, Germany, Italy, Spain, France, Brazil, and Mexico. And it's available at [00:02:00] index.eshap.tv right now. And it gives you a picture of where the world's attention is being spent. And what we did was we took the major measurement platform in each market as sacrosanct for television consumption, meaning there's a TV on in the room, and then we took handset data from Sensor Tower and Comscore, and then diaries from GWI, who polls all across the world, and we cross-collateralized them to de-duplicate. Because you, when you watch TV you have a phone in your hand right? Marion Ranchet: Yeah, half the time. Evan Shapiro: And when you look at the phone, can you watch the TV simultaneously? Marion Ranchet: No, but I would say that I'm still engaged and listening, but okay. Evan Shapiro: Are you though? If you're watching a YouTube video or looking at a TikTok or looking at an Instagram feed or sending an email on your phone, are you really paying attention, or is it just ambient noise in the background? Marion Ranchet: So I have to say, that those [00:03:00] lapses, moments where you know you, have this in hand and you're watching something it's not like it lasts the entire session right? So I don't do that for an hour and a half. At some point in time during that hour and a half or whatever, unlike what we think we can do two things at once, I have to choose between one and the other. I get it. Evan Shapiro: And, the brain can't do that. It can't take in, it's not like music, which you can actually hear and you're reading something at the same time. That's true. Those are two different experiences. And so what we did was not for the whole movie, but for whatever time a consumer says that they're spending on their phone we eliminate that time, even if the television is on in the room, from the television screen. And we also, on a parallel track, surveyed people in all of these markets about their favorite device for video. Two-thirds of the people in these markets say that they watch more video on their [00:04:00] phone than they do on their television set, and this is especially true for people under the age of 55. And what happens is when you look at consumption across all these markets, every single market, when you eliminate people over 55 from the data, which we don't do we poll everybody 13 plus. But when you, on the index you can actually, it's interactive it's free, and you can eliminate different segments of the population and look at, younger portions. 81% of the world's population is under 55. 81%. 19% are over 55. And what's happening very clearly when you look at this data is that traditional media is almost exclusively an old age home. It's almost exclusively the 19% of the population over 55 heavily indexing or over-indexing for traditional media. The second you look at [00:05:00] 13 to 54, the entire landscape shifts. YouTube's in the top almost across the board except for 55 plus. But then what happens in almost every market is TikTok then jumps up to number two. In fact, TikTok beats almost all of traditional media in almost every market that we studied. And what's dangerous for YouTube actually is that when you get to 34 and younger, TikTok is beating YouTube in a decent number of these markets, including the US. Also, TikTok is beating all of traditional media. In most of these countries, this is not true in Brazil and Mexico, but for the rest of the six markets in this, on this index and in our research, TikTok is beating all of traditional media for people under 55, not under 45, not under 35. And in many cases they're getting more attention than all of traditional media [00:06:00] in that market combined. They're beating Netflix, in most of these markets. In a ton of markets, Instagram is beating Netflix. And so when you're wondering why Netflix is going vertical, this is why. Yeah. If you're wondering why all these platforms are now rushing into vertical, this is why. And what you'll see is the index covers eight countries. It's totally interactive it's totally free to use, and you can look what happens not only when you segment the audience by different age brackets, but at the same time you can actually see, if YouTube increases its share, what happens to the rest of the market? If TikTok increases its share, where does that audience come from? And what's fascinating is when TikTok increases its market share in any of these regions, it's taking it from Netflix and Disney, the streamers. When YouTube increases its share in any of these markets it's stealing it from traditional media. And that's an interesting dichotomy that that one of the many different, I'm gonna continue to [00:07:00] report on what this data shows, but there are a lot of layers to it, and it's, What most of traditional media does not understand is that the phone is now the center of gravity for video on the planet Earth, not the television set. And it's not even a close second place. Marion Ranchet: A few things, 'cause this actually goes against the results of this survey I did with RTL Alliance, which showed that the living room and big screen TV were central. And so I wonder, because you say that you've surveyed people, and I wonder if surveys are any good in a way, because people are here to say, are they saying what they should be saying? Are they saying what they think they should do? I, don't know, but what I'm seeing is that we're getting a lot of contradictory data when it comes to surveys. So let me put that aside for a second. I have to say I was puzzled [00:08:00] to see that particularly in the European markets that you you mentioned. Evan Shapiro: But just to double click on that one second. In the home, I don't think you're wrong right? Yeah. When I'm in the mood for premium content, the television is absolutely the main screen. But then look at the surveys that we actually did. We asked people where, what are the top three places you watch video? Number one is bed, not the living room. Number two, and think about your own life right? Number two, number three, so number two is the living room, number three is waiting on line somewhere. Number four is the toilet. Marion Ranchet: Yeah. Evan Shapiro: Number five is in transit. So life is just different than, a very, your survey focused on where you watch co-viewing and entertainment, not utility, not passing time, not out of home. [00:09:00] We don't spend most of our time at home. Yeah. We spend most of your time somewhere else. And even when you're at home I haven't watched, we talked about this when we had Roseberry on. I haven't watched Saturday Night Live on television probably in- Marion Ranchet: Yeah, a long time. Evan Shapiro: Six or seven years. I watch it the next day on the toilet on my phone in sketch form. By the way, that's how I watch all of my news. I don't watch news on TV anymore, ever. I only watch news on TikTok and Instagram from feeds that I trust. And so when you think about your own lifestyle you have to look at the reality of the world. You watch substantially more video on your phone, not, by choice, but by kind of this is how the world works right? This is how my life- Marion Ranchet: No I don't. I'm the exception. Evan Shapiro: But you're also, in this case, a Boomer. Marion Ranchet: Yeah, no I'm the oldest- Evan Shapiro: You're a Millennial- Marion Ranchet: You are a Boomer. Evan Shapiro: who acts like a Boomer. Marion Ranchet: Yeah, perhaps. Perhaps. Evan Shapiro: I'm not a Boomer. But I, I'm a Gen X who thinks like a Gen Z-er. Marion Ranchet: I embrace, this. No, but I, [00:10:00] Okay, agreed. It's true that the focus was, but we did look at, you know, what people were doing, where they were watching video at large, and we just we didn't just ask about home and the living room. So that that's where, something to look at later. You used the term attention, and I think that's an important term because what we're hearing a lot of companies debating right? And I don't wanna get into the what's premium, what's not premium because we've said it, many times on this pod it's in the eye of the beholder right? So what is worth my time is the angle, not what's the production quality, the production value, et cetera. Is the attention, the quality of attention, not measured in time spent, but how attentive you are measured here? Because [00:11:00] I will say that what I do here or what I do on TV, my level of attention is not the same. When I'm on social and when I watch, when I lean in and really choose something to watch on my TV, yes I get distracted, but out of that 90 minutes it's gonna be a few minutes right? Whereas I'm gonna really go quickly, and have 30-second things, and I'm gonna be doing many things at the same time, et cetera, et cetera. So do you measure the quality of that attention? Because it's not just a question of time spent. Evan Shapiro: No one's measuring the quality of attention. No one on the planet Earth. They can tell you with these eye following plot bullshit. Yeah. No one's measuring the quality of attention, not on TV and not on phones. And so when- Marion Ranchet: They are trying. You were talking about measuring- Evan Shapiro: But they're failing. But they're failing. There, there is no way to basically go into to, at scale, to measure the quality of attention. First of all, quality is a very subjective term. So we [00:12:00] have to really remember to use, if you wanna use data, then let's use data. Yeah. Why do you think Obsession beat Star Wars at the box office? Why do you think Backrooms is now gonna be one of the highest grossing films of the year? Why did digital, Amazing Digital Circus beat Masters of the Universe at the box office? Why? Why? Because the attention on social is paramount when you're on social. When you look at Curry Barker talk about how they learned how to capture attention by making sketches on the internet, there are a couple of different things that they talk about. One, learning how to grab the attention in the first three seconds, but two, understanding that YouTube was great as a platform, but TikTok was really where they took off. Marion Ranchet: Yeah. Evan Shapiro: And now Obsession is gonna wind up being the highest grossing movie of all time for films with a million dollar or less budget. Of all time. Of all time. Marion Ranchet: Yeah, but [00:13:00] in this example, can I say that I think that's the power of social and not disparaging- Evan Shapiro: You're making my point. Marion Ranchet: Yeah, but so I, what I mean is ultimately it took people to the cinema. But you tend to oppose social media and then the rest of traditional media right? And don't- Evan Shapiro: No I don't. No, that that is not the point. The point, and if you read the, the report I put out on the index it's saying these two things are intrinsically the whole consumer. You cannot see a consumer just as a television consumer or a mobile consumer. Just as a mainstream media consumer or a social media consumer. You have to see them as a continuum. The, that Obsession and Backrooms are really great examples of this. I found these kids on social media. I then went to a movie theater. Marion Ranchet: Yeah. Evan Shapiro: I paid money and showed up at an appointed time, to sit in a dark [00:14:00] room, to put my phone down while I did it, and then I went back on the internet on social media to talk about it. There's a great new movie that Olivia Wilde directed called, the Invite? The Invite. Marion Ranchet: The Invite, yeah, Evan Shapiro: The Invite. Marion Ranchet: Yeah. It's on my list. Evan Shapiro: And it's, by the way it's the fifth time that this play has been turned into a movie. This is the first time in English. The only way I know it's a good movie is because of TikTok. Yeah. by the way, Kareem, who hosts Subway Takes, which just got an Emmy nomination, he's, he'll tell you, the only reason his podcast blew up was because of TikTok. the, when was the last time you went to a dinner party and didn't hear the following: "You know what I saw on TikTok today? You know what I saw on Instagram today? You know what I heard? This recipe I got it on TikTok. These jeans I bought them on TikTok." So the data really does show that the attention paid on social media is as powerful, not more powerful, but as powerful as it is on the [00:15:00] television set. The difference is, 60% or more of the attention is on the phone on social video as opposed to the attention on television. Marion Ranchet: Yeah. Evan Shapiro: Our lives center around our phones. You've seen me do this, what 100 times now? Who here has a smartphone? Marion Ranchet: Yeah. Evan Shapiro: Who here is their smartphone the first thing they pick up in the morning? Who here is their smartphone the last thing they touch at night? I'm very sorry for your significant other. How many times have I told that joke? It's never it never doesn't work. I just did it in France on stage with France Television because it's true. Because it's true. It, and you, to go back to your question about the surveys we surveyed eight different markets. The s- the results were the same in eight very different markets. Italy, Spain, France, the United States, Brazil, Mexico. This is not a monolith. And then we used big data to ratify the theory. We have massive data from AGF [00:16:00] in Germany, as much as it pisses them off to mention them, from Barb in the UK, from Nielsen here in the US, from Kantar in Brazil. We have enough big data to tell the world that this is actually what's happening, and you need to adjust your business models. We, there's so much confusion and fog in the C-suites in mainstream media. What's happening? Where is all the attention going? Why are we not as effective as we used to be? You wanna know why? 'Cause you're ignoring the phone. The phone is the center of gravity. Marion Ranchet: Yeah. No, but for sure. At the end of the day we're fighting for time. There's only 24 hours in a day, and we have more options than ever. And of course, the one thing that is with us all day long is this. That, on that yeah, no question asked. And but I think what I will say is that you, okay, let's say you're not pitting one against the other. You're often criticizing traditional [00:17:00] media's way Evan Shapiro: Usage. Marion Ranchet: Usage, strategy on social. I think again, yes, creators are incredibly important, but for example, for news you've said it, trusted sources, and this is a mix of creators, but there's, I'm sure in there's a lot of traditional and legacy media. So a lot of that Evan Shapiro: Yeah. Most of my news consumption comes from BBC, The Economist, The Atlantic, The Guardian, who's leaning into video, The New York Times, who's leaning into video, so yeah, absolutely. Marion Ranchet: And so what's missing for me from the index is that when you're popping YouTube, when you're popping TikTok, that content, a lot of that content is coming from traditional media. So in a way, in the index you're downplaying the way YouTube is used Evan Shapiro: At a much smaller percentage than you would think, actually. When you look at- Marion Ranchet: Yeah, but you don't see it ... when you look at YouTube's top 50- When you look at the data like that you don't see it, [00:18:00] right? No, but so are you saying that most of what's being seen on YouTube and TikTok is only coming from non-traditional legacy media? Is the consumption only UGC? Evan Shapiro: No, but it's overwhelmingly UGC. If you look at YouTube's top channels, if you look at TikTok's top creators it, none of, almost none of traditional media enters into the top echelons of distribution. BBC Studios being an exception to that. Marion Ranchet: Exception, yeah. Evan Shapiro: But not BBC in the UK. Now, this is why Dan McColgan came on our podcast to talk to us about how BBC is now leaning into social video in news and other platforms. We had, I had, Gaspar G and TF1 on stage at StreamTV Europe, and they talked about their collaboration around news. At France Television's annual new season conference, which I opened up they, they opened up, [00:19:00] Stefan, their head of programming, opened up the entire conference by saying, "I'm here to talk about a murder, the murder of traditional television." And then they brought me on stage to do the autopsy. But then they also talked about their great collaboration with HugoDécrypte, a documentary that they're making with him around the world, including here in the US and in Mexico. And so they're, you're absolutely right. A decent portion I just talked about watching Saturday Night Live, and Saturday Night Live is one of the most watched things on YouTube, but it's, de minimis compared to the sea of content that's coming from digital natives. That will change, by the way. That is definitely going to change over the next five years. I think the biggest movement in media over the next five years is the syndication of our great libraries around the world onto, BBC, Disney, Warner Brothers, onto social video. And that's what I'm trying to encourage them to do, is [00:20:00] unlock these huge vaults of amazing content that they own, and bring it to the audiences who've never seen it but desperately want it, which is younger consumers. Marion Ranchet: Agreed. But again, one thing that isn't fixed here is that this move, so them making those moves, and I'm sure the audience will follow. But you know that the ad dollars do not. You already know. Evan Shapiro: Today. But that's because the traditional media sucks at selling advertising. Marion Ranchet: No I think that's not true. If you take again the example of Lumi, he says, why did he bring Lumi? He says, "We are incapable of selling against kids content on YouTube, and it's because of YouTube, because the product is not fit for this." And traditional media is gonna say the same when, so [00:21:00] it is a limitation from the platform itself, the way those platform work. So I think that's not fair to- Evan Shapiro: No I don't think it's a limitation. I don't think it's a limitation of the platform. Marion Ranchet: I don't think it's fair to only say that... Evan Shapiro: They said the same thing about cable television. They said the same thing about cable television at the beginning of cable television. They're gonna sit there. Netflix sucks at selling advertising. They're terrible at it. And almost all of traditional media is absolutely terrible at selling their own content on, they don't even understand what the partners program is on YouTube. They don't know how to do branded content really well. But when you look at, when you listen to the CEO of L'Oreal, L'Oreal will tell you that they're selling gobs of product on TikTok. Marion Ranchet: Yeah. Evan Shapiro: So there is a really, you have to understand these platforms in order to monetize them. and it isn't about programmatic ad sales. It's certainly not allow, about letting Google sell all your ads for you. Marion Ranchet: No, of course not. Evan Shapiro: That's not how it's gonna work. Yeah. You have to take responsibility for [00:22:00] selling it yourself. You have to package in your traditional media, and you have to create a whole consumer profile. If Disney chose to do that, if Sky and ITV, once they combine, chose to do that if everybody on Earth, if the mainstream media understood that the phone and the television together is the whole consumer they'd be way better at selling ads to the whole consumer. Right now they're ignoring 60% of their own audience's life. Marion Ranchet: I don't agree that they're ignoring. Evan Shapiro: And that's why they're failing. Marion Ranchet: I don't agree. You go to, I did a keynote in front of European ad sales houses, and everyone is making sure that their teams are able to sell across the entire ecosystem. And I think, again, as often it's easier said than done. It's easy to say, let's put all of that shit on YouTube and then monetize again. Evan Shapiro: But no one's doing it. Marion Ranchet: That's not true. That's not true. Perhaps on your side of the ocean, but you've seen, the Channel 4 Evan Shapiro: Channel 4 is doing a really good job of it. Marion Ranchet: and France Télévisions. [00:23:00] Everyone is. It's gonna take time, it's not gonna happen overnight. Evan Shapiro: Yes, it is gonna take time, but you have to agree to do it, and you have to also put your best content up on these platforms, which a lot of them aren't. Marion Ranchet: Which I think is something that is happening, in Europe at least. Evan Shapiro: Slowly. Marion Ranchet: You'll, yeah, perhaps slowly, but at the end of the day, man you were at France Télévisions. I was at France Télévisions for the YouTube event. 20K hours per year on there. Again, let's remember, that all of that work has to be done with more limited budgets than ever. You know, absolutely no risk being taken by any of the platforms. 'cause I think you know that I'm pissed off by this because as much as I agree that audiences are there, the platforms are not doing what they're supposed to be doing, and they're putting the burden on the commercial broadcasters, the public broadcasters, the streamers, everyone else, everyone who's taking a risk on producing content. So that's where I think what's really disappointing. Okay. Evan Shapiro: Same thing about the telecom companies, though. That's where [00:24:00] the irony of this all comes into play, which is they're all rushing to do bundles and distribute content with Orange and all these other telecom companies, but they don't hold their feet to the fire the same way. Look I fucking hate Meta. Let's be honest. I think they're like cancer. Marion Ranchet: I hope you do. Evan Shapiro: I, think, yeah, they're a cancer on the planet, but it's not their fault you can't sell your inventory on their platform. Let's be honest. It's your own fault. You don't understand the mechanics of it well enough. And by the way you're right. I'm being, I'm, painting the whole traditional media ecosystem with one brush. That's not fair. TF1 is doing a very decent job of it. Paramount actually does a pretty decent job of it. The New York Times is doing a really good job of it. So there are examples. BBC Studios, who we've talked to a thousand times about this. So there are people who are do, in traditional media. Channel 4, ITV actually in the UK is doing a really decent job of this as well. So there are examples, but they are the exceptions, not the [00:25:00] rule. Disney is being you know, what the hell is Disney doing? Why is it taking so long for them to adopt to the way that the world actually works? And they're so bad at it, by the way, that they outsourced it to Lumi. Marion Ranchet: Lumi. Evan Shapiro: That's how bad they are at selling their inventory on, social video. They can't even do it themselves. They outsourced it to Hasbro and Animage. It's a shanda, as my grandmother would say. Marion Ranchet: Okay I loved it. I mean, talk about debating with this- Evan Shapiro: Finally we got a good debate. Marion Ranchet: No, what, don't say that because we do do that. Evan Shapiro: We agree more than we disagree. But this is one where we definitely disagree. Marion Ranchet: That's true. As always you're very brr, and I'm more nuanced. Anyway- But you Evan Shapiro: I'm American and you're French. Marion Ranchet: You have that big brush Pollock kind of way and I'm more like pointillism doing a light touch. Evan Shapiro: What I would say is check out the index. [00:26:00] Check out the index at index.eshop.tv and see for yourself. You can touch all the points. You can look at the methodology. You can look at all the data. See if it doesn't jive with what in your own life with your own family and your own friend set. And if you have any issues with regarding methodology or anything else that's on the platform, please let me know. It's a work in progress. And by the way I was able to build that entire thing using LLMs. I had to train the LLMs on how measurement worked and why it was important to de-duplicate and use sound methodology, and it took me, took a, took years off my life doing it, but I was able to build, without a huge investment by my company, a brand-new user-driven app for attention measurement across eight different regions. And so there's a really good example of how if you learn how these models work they are incredibly [00:27:00] powerful tools. Marion Ranchet: Yeah. Okay I loved this episode. This is the end of season two for the Media Odyssey podcast. Evan Shapiro: Out with a bang. Marion Ranchet: Yeah, out with a bang. With an hour-long episode, so guys, do consider, listening or watching in two parts because this second part on the index I think was quite fascinating, and I'm thinking not the last conversation we're gonna have, about this topic. I really loved this. I'm gonna wish you an amazing summer break. I'm gonna go enjoy myself in Spain, in France, in the Netherlands, et cetera. I'll see you in a few weeks' time. Evan Shapiro: Yeah. Enjoy yourself and your family as well. And everybody out there, happy summer. Stay cool. I know Europe doesn't believe in air conditioning, but maybe go out and buy one. This has been the Media Odyssey podcast. The end of the season. That is Marion Ranchet. Marion Ranchet: And that is Evan Shapiro. Evan Shapiro: We will see you next [00:28:00] season.