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The 5 o' Clock Shadow with Schalk Louw · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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The JC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock
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shadow.
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And as always, on a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Lowe,
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Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.
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Skulk, I've got a technical problem.
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Okay, it's with my screen because I'm just getting prices ready and everything.
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And I've got the all share at nearly 111,000.
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That's obviously wrong.
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Can't be.
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Gold, no, it can't be.
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Gold price, 4,044 at 1.5%.
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No, that's wrong as well.
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Goodness me, and I pay these people for this.
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And silver, about $49 an ounce.
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The copper price has gone through $5 a pound, and quite significantly so as well.
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Hey, I don't know why they mess me around.
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But anyway, we can chat about other things.
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I mean, come on, Scott, this is good fun, isn't it?
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Yeah, it is.
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Let's not talk about...
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Stav, your screens are clearly doubling up because if gold is showing $4,000 per
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ounce,
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surely it must be around about $2,000.
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I'm not sure.
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I haven't looked at my screens for many, many...
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Yes, that's the case, man.
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It's doubled in two years.
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It's quadrupled in 10 years.
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As a person said once to me, he had a great saying.
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It was when the Ukrainian, or Russian nuclear plant like Chernobyl.
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blew up and this great cloud went across the the wheat growing plains of of europe
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and you couldn't get
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into you couldn't get into the chicago board of trade to buy any wheat futures
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because they were limit
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up and then when they reopened they went living up again so you would buy any food
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that was on the board i.e sugar
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for example and i said to my boss i said sugar's not limit limit up He said, it's a
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food, get it bought.
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You can stick it in your mouth and swallow it.
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There we go.
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It's like gold's a food.
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So that's where the saying comes from.
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It's a food.
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You've got to buy it.
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That's what people are saying.
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No, it is.
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I mean, literally, the precious metals run.
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I mean, we haven't seen this in decades.
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And just an interesting factoid.
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I mean, I don't know if you...
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But up to yesterday,
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the JSE has basically grown by 33.7%.
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That's just for 2025 alone.
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This is from the 1st of January up to now.
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If you didn't have any gold counters, and just for fun, I included
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Sabania Stillwater.
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I know Sabania Stillwater.
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It's not a pure gold mine.
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And the actual fact it went up from, I think it's...
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generated about let's call it 12
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12 percent yeah between 10 and 12 percent out of gold that was about two three years
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ago and is now well
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well over 50 so it is predominantly earning most of its profits out of out of
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its gold's operation so i'm going to include it
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so that gives us six counters on the jsu if you if
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you did not have any of those if you didn't have any of those six counters in
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your portfolio.
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you wouldn't have seen a 33.7% increase in your portfolio,
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but only 18.9%.
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So just for fun again, I… So nearly half has been attributable to gold counters.
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Exactly.
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Essentially is what you're saying.
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Out of six counters, exactly.
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And then I just added the three.
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It's got a pure PGM counters as well, the Impala, Volterra, Northern Platinum.
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I included them as well.
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So now it brings us to nine counters on the JSE.
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If you exclude them out of the JSE, then your performances would have only been 15%
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year to date.
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So now we're going towards the 40% of your performances.
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You probably would have had 40% of the performances.
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So somebody on X, on social media, said, well, do me a favor,
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just exclude NASPAS and Prozis as well.
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Yeah.
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That's a good one.
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That's 11 stocks.
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Well, there goes another 8% of your performances, and you would have been left
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with 7%.
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So did you not have any of those seven counters in your portfolio?
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Your performance year-to-date would have been 7%
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exactly versus close to 34%, including those 11.
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The same sort of thing that's going on with it's not quite as exaggerated on the
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S&P 500 with NVIDIA and all those other ones.
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but it is phenomenal over there as well.
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And I'm not saying it's scary because it teaches you a lesson, I suppose,
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but it does show you the breadth of the JSC is simply not there.
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No, it's definitely.
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We talked about the Magnificent Seven.
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Well, I think we've got the Magnificent Seven on our side as well.
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Let's call it Magnificent Eleven.
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I'll come up with a phrase.
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That's a bit worrying.
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I mean, happy to have them in my portfolios and to be in early.
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But, I mean, also worrying because...
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What do we call it in cycling?
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After every uphill there's a downhill.
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So I'm worried.
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But I mean, like somebody asked me, one of my clients called me up this morning and
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he said, well, Scott, you know, well done.
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I mean, I'm really happy with this performances.
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But what do we do now?
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I mean, something that can go up as much as it did.
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I mean, speaking, you know, towards the gold prize itself.
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I mean, we can see a retracement again just as easy.
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And my short answer to his question was, I don't think so,
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because the business thesis for the reason why gold is running upwards is still very
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much in play.
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And just for interest, you and I had this conversation, I think three or four weeks
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ago,
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I told you that Goldman Sachs came out with a report where they actually
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said they were crazy.
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I mean, Lindsay, this is...
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way off, I don't know if you remember it,
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they were crazy to come out and say the gold price will reach $4,000 per ounce,
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you know,
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by the first quarter of next year.
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And everybody was saying, oh man, what are they smoking?
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I mean, we've reached it.
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So they've updated the report yesterday, basically saying that they've, you know,
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$4,000 done and dusted.
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They're now calling the gold price...
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By year end next year, so December 2026,
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they call in the gold price at $4,900 per ounce.
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That's the new report that was released.
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$4,900 did you say?
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What did you say?
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$4,900 per ounce.
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For goodness sake, for $100, let's call it $5,000 Goldman Sachs.
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Don't be stingy, for goodness sake.
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When they say that, then you know it's time to put in some protection here,
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Skullcum.
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That's what I was going to say.
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That's what I'm saying.
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For the client that phones you up and says, what should we do here?
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You're in love with these shares.
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They're part of the family now.
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So get a big block of put options.
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You can't sell the calls to fund the puts because you'll get blown out the water
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if there's a melt up and you're going to have to buy back those calls and it'll be
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messy.
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Just buy some seriously cheap out the money puts.
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And when they expire, just keep rolling them over with your profits.
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And just in case, because those out-the-money puts for a $100 fall or a
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$200 fall in the gold price,
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which would still mean it was a bull market, that move will triple the value of
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those things, I would have thought.
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You're cleverer than me on these matters.
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No, you're 100% right.
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You are 100% right.
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But, I mean, so that's the structure in me.
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I think that that might not be a bad idea, you know, way out of the money.
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But I mean, let's look at the question of this gentleman and the answer.
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My answer was, I mean,
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so let's again say that the gold price do retrace again and go back to way down
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at $3,500.
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None of these six mines that I just mentioned are mining gold for over $2,000
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per
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ounce.
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So as it currently stands...
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They're making a huge amount of profit.
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Every single day they're mining these gold or yellow metals.
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I mean, they're making massive, massive amount of profits, huge amount of free
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cash flow, and they've got zero,
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zero debt on the balance sheet.
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You and I, we've got a few grey ears.
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We know that gold miners have never, ever been in such a healthy position, ever.
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We've never seen gold miners sitting with zero debt on their balance sheet.
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And, of course, and they're raking it in every second that we look at our screen
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now.
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And I've got 4046.39 up one and a half percent.
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They say to themselves, well, let's just sit down again, chaps, because I don't
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quite believe these numbers.
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It costs us 1600 all in to get this out of the ground.
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Sixteen hundred dollars an ounce.
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The round is nice and strong and everything.
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So all this stuff we're importing.
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to keep the mines going.
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That's cheaper than it was last year.
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And they go through all these things.
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They're saying, yeah, our margins are X. I mean, 4,000 minus 1,600,
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and that's a high number for some mines I know there.
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A margin scale.
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They made a big calculator.
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Whopping, whopping amounts of money.
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They won't know what to do with it.
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Yeah, and that's my point.
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I mean, you've already had the likes of Harmony coming out and saying, well,
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we're not finding any opportunities in the gold market.
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But, I mean, we do think copper is yellow enough.
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Let's go and buy some copper mines.
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I'm joking about this, but it's difficult.
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But they did.
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And so most of these mines are going to look at this and say, well, we're not
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finding opportunities.
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communities,
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we need to start giving this money back.
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Special divs coming up.
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There we go.
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Suddenly you're going to start hearing the noises of special dividends,
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larger dividends going forward.
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I mean, again, this is gold mines, Lindsay.
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Come on.
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I mean, we've never, ever seen this.
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When has this ever happened where there's so much cash sloshing around that they
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have to say, oh, right,
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then special dividend in the next quarter or the next half year or something.
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No, I've never heard of it ever since from the time that I went to South Africa to
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now, and I really got the gold bug.
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I've never seen that before.
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Yeah.
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No, and I think just to bring it back to the local economy, I mean, this is
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definitely going to help South Africa,
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help the economic position.
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I mean, we're the eighth largest gold producer in the world.
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We've mentioned that...
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The PGMs are having a field day.
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I mean, look at the I mean,
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one of my colleagues this morning showed me the graph of palladium,
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and palladium is really looking quite juicy technically now.
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It's good.
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So it had a bit of a recovery now, formed a very, very nice base.
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I mean, I must compliment you on both platinum and palladium.
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You called that support, that strong support, and now it's looking Looking s-
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really juicy.
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So we're the second largest palladium producer in the world, largest platinum
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producer, largest rhodium producer.
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If we just do a few small things right over the next year or
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two, South Africa can really, and when I talk about South Africa, I'm talking about
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the South African economy,
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could really take advantage out of this environment.
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Very good.
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Let's just stay with mining just for a moment Anglo-American came out with a
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statement regarding text their operational review an
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updated outlook market seems to like that although it's a buoyant market anyway
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because of things that they dig out the ground but
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anyway 1.4 percent higher for Anglo-American.
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First round came out with a voluntary update today Skunk and with all the
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excitement elsewhere didn't look so good or rather the market
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didn't think it looks so good.
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Did you Have a look at it.
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A very quick look, Lindsay Sark.
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I couldn't read it.
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It's still got to do with this financial conduct.
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There's this whole issue that they had recently.
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UK motor problem, wasn't it?
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There we go.
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And it's...
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The commission matter.
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Yes, it's been settled by the government,
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and they've got to pay back these companies that did something naughty when
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they were selling cars to people.
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And the first round was involved in that.
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I think they've got to pay back each person 700 pounds.
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It amounts to about 14 billion across the UK.
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But obviously, First Rand involved or a division of First Rand involved.
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And that's what's leaning on it a bit.
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So once that's out the way, not too much to worry about.
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But I had to mention that.
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Anything else you saw on the JSC today?
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Besides all these.
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So what we've seen, I think, NEARS this morning is also the IPO of this.
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Optasia, don't ask me a lot about the company.
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This is a… What's Optasia?
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It sounds like a Disney film.
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Yeah.
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I mean, I think the most important point for me is most probably the fact that
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we're seeing
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another listing.
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That's good.
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That's good.
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We've seen a few companies delist and move away from the company.
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And it's not going to be a small listing.
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I mean, they… The total capital they're looking to raise is eventually going to be
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at 6.3 billion rand.
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So public offer now is going to be 1.3 billion, and then there's going to be a
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private placement of 5 billion.
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So 6.3 billion is not a small company, so it had my attention.
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So they mentioned the company is an AI fintech company,
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so they've got all the right buzzwords.
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And this is a very interesting business model.
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I mean, they use AI.
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It's a company that uses AI and I talk about an extra 5,000 data points
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to basically access and use AI to look at the creditworthiness of clients.
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And they predominantly focus on microloans, airtime credit,
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cash advances, primary for mobile operators.
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I've got clients like...
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They partner with MTN and Vodacom.
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So it's a very interesting business model.
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And then it had me dig a little bit deeper.
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So there's a company, EPE Capital Partners, where ETH is Capital Exposure
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Capital Partners.
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And this is also a holding company.
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And I don't want to say it's the likes of a RemGrow,
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because then some people might take offense and say it's nothing like a
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RemGrow.
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But it's also a company that invests in a few companies.
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And one of these companies, Pretty much 51%
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of its NAV is made up out of this Octavia.
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So I get a feeling that this is sort of this EPE Capital Partners opportunity to
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cash
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in a bit, but we'll still see what happens.
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But to the listeners out there that say, well, I know the company.
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Octasia sounds really good.
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I mean.
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maybe look at applying for the IPO, could maybe consider buying this EPE
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Capital Partners listed on the JSE.
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That's an interesting sort of lateral thinking there.
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Correct.
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Very good.
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Okay.
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So EPE Capital Partners.
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When does this new Disney film list?
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That's a good one.
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Oxtasia, when is it coming out?
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and unfortunately do not have a data.
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They talk about...
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I've got no idea when the data's out.
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I'm trying to look at it.
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But it's a definite IPO.
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It's coming to the JSC.
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They're talking about South Africa's biggest RP in a year.
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Most probably still this year.
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But just back to EPE Cattle Path.
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It's trading at about 7 rand a share.
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The net asset value of this company, if you add all these
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these optasias and all the companies they own is worth about 8.57 so they're trading
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at a 18 percent
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discount to nav not as juicy as as the 40 percent uh rim grows trading but here's an
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interesting one and and mike i caught a
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company inside the portfolio another company that's been been in the news let's
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call the past two years
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is is a possible listing of time bank and Just for interest's sake,
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EPE Capital Partners, one of the companies that they own is also Time Bank.
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So it's not only this Disney movie.
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I'm always going to look at this company now.
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Yeah, I know you will.
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It's very bad.
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We'll get into trouble if we keep on saying that arrival.
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I just took my pencil at the thought of that.
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Skulk, tell me about Time again because there's a book just been released, I
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believe, which is co-authored by
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Bruce Whitfield and...
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And...
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Gosh, I can't, Neville, not Neville.
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Adrian Saville.
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Adrian Saville, that's it, yes, yes, yes.
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And it's all about that.
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Who's behind that again?
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Some serious people.
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Yeah, it's got the right names behind it.
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I'm going to make it injustice if I, but I'm talking about really, really big,
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big names.
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that we can't think of at the moment.
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I can't mention any one of them.
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Exactly.
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I'm sure it's one of the first-round people, ex-first-round people that are
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doing it.
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I'm sure it is.
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Yes, it's Michael Yordan, if I'm not mistaken.
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Yes, that's it.
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I'm going to Google this now because I think it is beloved.
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I think it's Michael Yordan.
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And then they partnered up with the African Rainbow guys.
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Let me just quickly just confirm that.
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Yes, there we go.
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Kies shareholders is African Rainbow Minerals, African Rainbow Capital.
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Yes.
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And that's
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Patrice Mutsepe and what's that person that was involved with Sun Lama and he
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moved away from
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Sun Lama as well.
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But also, I'm 99% sure that
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Michael Goddard has also got some.
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some involvement there.
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But anyway, some people that know what they're doing.
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And is it a confirmed listing or just one of those vicious rumors?
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No, it's a time, time.
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No, a time bank has always been a vicious rumor.
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There was a rumor that it would actually list before the, before the year end.
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But that's, that eventually where we sort of said, no, they don't need to, to list
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this company.
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And, but there's always been every now and then it picks up that there's a, there's a
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possible.
19:57
possible listing you know of time bank um i think eventually it might just happen
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i'm sure it will
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Well, it'll be good.
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I mean, it's nice to hear something that's not leaving the JSC, but in fact, going in
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the opposite direction and joining it.
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Right, Scott, we've babbled on too much with our enthusiasm about certain asset
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classes and certain securities.
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So I'm going to bring us back down to earth now and give you the real dope, the
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real deal.
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And it's the prices.
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The dollar round is 1716.
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Who'd have thought it that it might change its big figure?
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Not from 18 to 19, from 19 to 20, but from 17 to 16.
20:35
Well done, the rand.
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British pound against the rand, 23 on the nail.
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And the euro rand is 1993.
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That's the first time it's been below 20 for quite a while.
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Euro dollar is 116.15.
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This is a strange thing, Scott.
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The dollar's gone from like 118.50, 119 euro dollar, now to 116,
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and yet the gold price has gone up.
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I mean, the...
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The relationship between gold and the dollar is weak dollar, strong gold.
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Not strong dollar, strong gold.
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So it's independent strength from that yellow metal of yours.
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British pound against the dollar, $1.34.
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What else have we got here?
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Oh, yes, gold price.
21:15
Bear market, sell, sell, sell, $4,039.
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Now it's fallen $5 in the last half hour.
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Goodness me, I can't believe I'm telling you this.
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$4,039 up 1.4%.
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Oh, my word.
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So another $39 as well.
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Yeah, that's all over.
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Platinum is $16.92.
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Extraordinary.
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At $42 an ounce, 2.6% higher.
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And palladium up 7.25% today.
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$100 an ounce better at $14.73.
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Okay, on to other commodities.
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And as we agreed upon a few weeks ago, We include copper in our bulleted.
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It's coming off a bit.
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It's down 0.3%, but it's above $5 a pound in New York.
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$5.03, $5.035 per pound.
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That's quite a move, the $5 move.
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It was $4.50 not long ago.
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So copper on the way up, as we predicted.
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And crude oil now, $62.88, up nearly 2% for West Texas crude.
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And Brent crude up 1.6%, $66.
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uh 50 natural gas incidentally down 4.1 percent uh bitcoin went to
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an all-time record high a couple of days ago 125 000 odd it is now 122 250 which is
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up
22:33
a third of a percent on the day the south african 10-year bond it's
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having a go again it's nine basis points down the yield nine point zero nine
22:44
percent so up the bonds well done
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that's with the strong round of course in the us tenure is
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4.12%, which is a quarter of a percent down, or what is that, just one and a bit
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basis points.
22:57
S&P 500 futures closing in on 6,800.
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What a performance.
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The day's range is 6,758 to 6,793.
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It's on 6,793 now, all-time record highs, and that's for the December futures.
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So all-time records on the gold, the S&P.
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And also the Bitcoin price a couple of days ago.
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What a week it's been already.
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God, Scott, I'm exhausted.
23:25
Can you please give me your ups and downs on the JSC?
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And I'll give you mine in a moment.
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Yes.
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I think before I do that, I just want to clarify what I said earlier.
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Looking at Don's involvement with Time Bank, I need to correct that immediately.
23:42
I think Michael will give me a hard attack.
23:46
since he's involved with time back it's actually with bank zero that's where
23:52
michael radon's involved but time back is in fact as
23:54
as i mentioned it's a part of patrice matip is uh arc or african african river
23:59
capsule yes okay
24:01
good and also you can have a look at that book that we spoke of that'll tell you
24:07
everything about it should you it go to market and you want to
24:09
know a little bit more apparently a very good read if you like that sort of thing
24:12
Uh, ScalpJSC, please.
24:14
Not the indices yet, the individual movers.
24:16
Oh, individual movers, I just wanted to say, I mean, you gave it all away when we
24:20
started.
24:21
That's all right, you can...
24:22
But individual movers for today, you know, let's start at the losers for today.
24:27
We had Sappy down 4.6%, Hyde Prop down 4.1%. First round,
24:33
as you mentioned, you know, for reasons very unfortunate, 3.6%
24:40
down.
24:40
down 3.5%.
24:42
And Afrimat, after a trading update yesterday, which didn't look too bad, that
24:49
was down 2%.
24:51
Let me quickly see if there was any of the companies that had dividends, because I
24:56
know
24:57
High Prop was most probably a dividend situation, yes.
25:01
So out of those, High Prop was a dividend drop, so not to worry there.
25:08
Then, on the winners for today.
25:11
Leave the best till last low, they call him.
25:13
Okay, go ahead.
25:15
There we go.
25:18
Camelot is no surprise.
25:19
6.9% up today, Valtteri.
25:23
Northern platinum, 6% up.
25:26
Impala platinum, 5.7% up.
25:30
5.2% for Sabania Stillwater.
25:33
This is an odd one out.
25:35
Pick and pay.
25:35
That's done 4.94% for today.
25:39
What an F4.
25:40
Yeah, that's a strange, strange one.
25:42
Isn't it?
25:44
Naturally, in the top 10, top 15, we've also had Goldfields up 3.5%,
25:49
Angler Gold up 3.1%, and Harmony up 2.6%.
25:55
So, yeah, it's sort of a Jay's year of old today.
25:59
Definitely a Jay's year of old.
26:01
Absolutely brilliant.
26:02
Yeah, I've got all the same ones.
26:05
I've got, you know, Sappy Story's been a big one in the last week or so.
26:11
Still on the downside.
26:12
but um I think now, with the drumroll,
26:16
you've got to have a look at the indices because I see that the resources have been
26:22
the standout winners on the JSC today.
26:24
But give us all the details because it is extraordinary.
26:26
So, yeah, I just want to quickly mention a quick factoid.
26:31
First round was egg stiff.
26:33
So there's a two round 47 egg stiff story as well.
26:37
So that do change it a bit because we've seen a movement of...
26:43
2.91 today on the downward, and it had a 2.47 dividend.
26:49
Flat on the day.
26:50
It was still negative.
26:52
I mean, all the other banks had a really positive day.
26:56
So let's call it that announcement did affect it negatively, but not as negative
27:02
as we would have thought.
27:04
So here we go.
27:06
JSE, I mean, you gave it away at the start of the program.
27:08
Under the 10,971 points, that's up one.
27:12
point four percent i'm going to leave the best for last industrials up
27:16
68 basis points while financials were just in the green up a point one nine percent
27:23
and the best
27:25
was and the winner was by a country mile resource index up today in
27:29
total
27:30
3.71 man oh man oh man what a performance
27:38
isn't that brilliant what was the value traded today please skulk So value traded
27:43
for today.
27:45
Yeah, Austin, not a slow day.
27:46
It was just shy of 27 billion traded to the market for today.
27:50
Not bad at all.
27:51
With a strong round, that makes quite a good dollar sum.
27:54
Skalk, it's been a very exciting day.
27:57
It will continue to be so in New York hours, I'm sure.
28:00
What will it be next week?
28:01
I don't know.
28:02
But keep me in touch and keep us in touch on that put option situation.
28:07
I know you can't talk on behalf of clients, but just see if you've...
28:11
investigated i'd love to see what they're charging these days uh for gold put
28:18
options will they be incredibly low because the prices
28:20
go on shooting up or will they start to get a little bit more expensive because of
28:25
the volatility in the market because of the vix
28:27
on the on the gold market will they uh will the premiums of the put options start
28:32
to go up i'd like to know that you'll
28:34
report upon that next week of course yeah let's let's have a look that'll be
28:38
interesting to look at okay
28:40
Jolly Good Sculptor is a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.
28:42
And that was the five o'clock shadow.
28:44
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