Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / The Markets And Economy Amid Rising Inflation

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The Markets And Economy Amid Rising Inflation · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Inflation, Matt, it's out there,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: It's real. The question I think a lot of folks
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: are saying is they look at the CPI did and
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: the PPI data is has it peaked? Are we close
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  Speaker 1: to a peak? Well? Robert Rosener joins US executive director,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: senior US economist for our good friends over at Morgan Stanley. Robert,
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  Speaker 1: what say you? What's your inflation call? Right here? Are
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  Speaker 1: we at or near a peek in this inflation? Well,
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  Speaker 1: we do think we're near the peak, not just there yet.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: We still have a couple of months ahead of us
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: where we're likely to see the inflation numbers, particularly year
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  Speaker 1: over year, creeping a little bit higher up. There are
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: signs that that peak is ahead of us in terms
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: of what we know so far. We saw the consumer
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  Speaker 1: Price Index data just yesterday, which showed pretty steady inflationary
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  Speaker 1: pressures into the end of the year, but some early
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  Speaker 1: signs of cooling in the producer price index, as well
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  Speaker 1: as some very early signs of potentially some release in
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: supply chains, suggests that we may still see cooler numbers
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  Speaker 1: ahead as we look further into Robert you or the
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  Speaker 1: winner or are the winner of the NAB the National
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  Speaker 1: Association for Business Economics Outlook award the most accurate economic forecasts. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: I mean that is big, especially at a time when
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  Speaker 1: there's so much divergence and forecasts, um and there's so
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: much uncertainty out there. What do you do? What do
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: you think you do differently than others when you're putting
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  Speaker 1: together a forecast. I think the key to forecasting through
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: the pandemic has been to look not just top down,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: but bottoms up. We have to understand that what's going
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  Speaker 1: on in particular sectors of the economy. We have done
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: erstand what's going on very high frequency with things like
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  Speaker 1: consumer behavior and business behavior, what's going on with hiring,
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  Speaker 1: and that definitely pertains to inflation as well. You know,
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  Speaker 1: inflation has been uh, certainly a macro phenomenon, but there's
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: been micro details that have been driving the numbers that
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  Speaker 1: are really important to watch the pulse of what's moving.
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  Speaker 1: So we need to know what's going on in the
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  Speaker 1: auto market. We need to be working collaboratively across our
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: research department and more against Stanley to understand what our
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  Speaker 1: auto analysts are saying, what our sector analysts are saying.
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  Speaker 1: Because individual sectors that might ordinarily have been smaller moving
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  Speaker 1: in such large ways, it's really impacting the macro data.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I think what you just said is you got to
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: work much harder. Got to work hard. That sounds like
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  Speaker 1: a lot of work, it does. I mean, I'm not
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: sure I'm into that, but but you know, I've competed
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: against Morgan, Stanley and micers A sell side analysts for
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  Speaker 1: years and they're always always so good. One analysts leaves.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: I get someone as good or better Robert. You know,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: I guess one of the issues is um you As
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: we think about the labor market, it's such an important
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  Speaker 1: part of the economy, consumer spending. It ties into so
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  Speaker 1: many things. My question to you is, and I've asked
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  Speaker 1: a lot of smart people and I'm trying to get
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  Speaker 1: my head around this. The four to five million folks
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  Speaker 1: that have left the labor force. Who are they, Where
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  Speaker 1: did they go? Are they coming back? Yeah, it's it's
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  Speaker 1: probably one of the most important questions for the year ahead,
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  Speaker 1: if not for the next couple of years. Is there's
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  Speaker 1: still yawning shortfall in jobs relative to pre COVID peaks.
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  Speaker 1: And of course that's represented as well in the shortfall
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  Speaker 1: and labor force participation. There's just fewer people in this
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  Speaker 1: labor force than there were prior to COVID. Now we
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: know a big chunk of that is because of retirements,
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  Speaker 1: which looked like they caught up pretty significantly over the
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  Speaker 1: last eighteen months. Those are labor force decisions that are
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  Speaker 1: probably going to prove to be stickier, and that, in
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  Speaker 1: our estimates, is about two thirds of the shortfall in
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  Speaker 1: labor force participation, and that's the element that we might
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  Speaker 1: just not see return. But there's still an element of
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  Speaker 1: the shortfall labor force participation that comes from things like
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  Speaker 1: disruptions due to COVID, or people just waiting to get
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  Speaker 1: back into the labor market, having to deal with childcare issues,
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  Speaker 1: all of the disruptions from the pandemic. Now that may
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: be slower to return, but there is still some room
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  Speaker 1: there to move the needle in terms of bringing labor
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  Speaker 1: fertipation higher. You know what, what it brings up for me, Robert,
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  Speaker 1: is a question about UM. What cynics or critics called
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: the plunge Protection team, because a lot of people the
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: plunge protection team like the the idea that the FED
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  Speaker 1: is going to freak out one markets fall and come
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  Speaker 1: back and be very supportive. And the reason that I
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  Speaker 1: think UM it's an important question now is if you've
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: got these three, four or five million people that decided
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  Speaker 1: they could retire early. A part of that was how
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  Speaker 1: well they had done in the markets, right. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: we all know people, I think who have done so
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  Speaker 1: well in the markets. And of course they saved early
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  Speaker 1: and they put money away, and that was mark. But
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the reason they were able to step away is that
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  Speaker 1: we were up twenty seven percent last year. We were
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: up eighteen percent in twenty we were up twenty in
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  Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. And if you see a twenty percent correction,
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  Speaker 1: can the FED really continue to fight inflation by staying
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  Speaker 1: on the path to rising rates or does it have
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  Speaker 1: to capitulate and come in and save UM shareholders that
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: are at risk. Well, that's a really great question, and
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  Speaker 1: I think we have to begin from a starting point
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  Speaker 1: where the FED is moving towards tightening monetary policy, and
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  Speaker 1: one of the reasons that is allowing them to do
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  Speaker 1: so is that financial conditions remain extraordinarily accommodative. And by
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  Speaker 1: that I mean movements in markets that we've seen over
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  Speaker 1: the last year. The current state of how financial markets
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  Speaker 1: are interacting with the economy, it's supportive for growth. So
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  Speaker 1: exactly as you described, household wealth is higher, um just
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  Speaker 1: the overall state of markets is supportive for the economy.
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  Speaker 1: And this is a FED that's looking to dial back
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  Speaker 1: the amount of support that it's providing for the economy.
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  Speaker 1: And so it's likely to be a FED that's accepting
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  Speaker 1: of some tightening and financial conditions, whether that comes from
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  Speaker 1: lower equity valuations, higher rates, stronger dollar, just the general
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  Speaker 1: backdrop of financial conditions may need to snug up a
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  Speaker 1: little bit in order to get the economy, take some
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  Speaker 1: of the steam out of the economy and take some
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  Speaker 1: of the steam out of inflation as well. So I
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  Speaker 1: think that may come as a surprise to some people
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  Speaker 1: is that the FED might not be there to respond
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  Speaker 1: to every hiccup in the market when they are looking
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  Speaker 1: to get to a backdrop where financial conditions are at
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  Speaker 1: least more neutral in terms of how they're interacting with
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  Speaker 1: the economy. All right, Robert, thank you so much for
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: joining us. We really appreciate getting some of your time.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you're busy these days thinking about where this
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  Speaker 1: economy is going. Robert Rosen, Executive Director. He's a senior
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  Speaker 1: US economists with our good friends at Morgan Stanley here
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: in Midtown Manhattan, m Bloomberg Markets. Today is brought to
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: you by Commonwealth, supporting more than two thousand independent financial
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: advisors with the solutions they need to grow a thriving business.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Commonwealth Go where you Grow. Visit Commonwealth dot com to
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: learn more. I wonder what people, the real people out there, Matt,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: that are you know, putting their daily paychecks giving it
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: to their financial advisors saying, you know, where do I
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  Speaker 1: go with my money? Here? I've got in a market
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: where I think we're gonna have rising interest rates throughout
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  Speaker 1: this year. What do I do? Well? Fortunately, we have
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: some smart people to help us think about that. Tammy Hey,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: good financial advisor for UBS, joins us and Tammy, I'd
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  Speaker 1: love to hear what a typical phone call these days,
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  Speaker 1: in the early days of two between you and your
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  Speaker 1: clients are what are they asking you? Good morning, thank
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  Speaker 1: you for having me. UM. It is clear that one
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  Speaker 1: of the first conversations that we're talking about out this inflation. UM,
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  Speaker 1: you don't have to be on the news cycle. Just
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  Speaker 1: go to the grocery store and understand that prices are
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  Speaker 1: higher than they've been. And with the news on earlier
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  Speaker 1: this week, inflation at a thirty nine year high, it's
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  Speaker 1: it's on the forefront of most people's mind. I think
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  Speaker 1: the thing that doesn't get talked about nearly as much,
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  Speaker 1: but is a balancing effect for us is UM the
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  Speaker 1: fact that jobless claims at a fifty year below so
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  Speaker 1: for us to enter the Barbell temm, that concern I
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  Speaker 1: guess I would have as an investor is that, you know,
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  Speaker 1: not only do I want to make more than inflation,
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  Speaker 1: but UM, I'm looking at out the corner of my
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  Speaker 1: eye at the Federal Reserve and if they're getting really
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  Speaker 1: a restive that typically UM has held back growth and uh,
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  Speaker 1: it's it's not It's not unusual for stock markets to
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  Speaker 1: take a hit when the Fed is in a hiking cycle.
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  Speaker 1: So are you worried, um, that your that your clients
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  Speaker 1: are going to see returns diminished compared to what they
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: saw last year as the Fed starts to raise rates. Well,
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  Speaker 1: I think that we're outside returns for the SMP five hundreds,
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  Speaker 1: So we would not suggest that that is it's going
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  Speaker 1: to be the norm. But we do have a very
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  Speaker 1: strong consumer, We have wages that are rising, and we
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: have easy capital, even with the Federal Reserve raising rates,
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  Speaker 1: and so we think that that's gonna m bode well
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  Speaker 1: for both the consumer and corporate earn. So we really
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  Speaker 1: believe that we're looking at a twelve precent smp UM
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  Speaker 1: in two and maybe even nine. How about Tammy, I'm
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: gonna go, by the way, what's that bad? That's awesome?
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: That would be great. If that would really happen, that
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  Speaker 1: would be awesome. I think you know, Um, a lot
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  Speaker 1: of folks would take that, particularly after the last three
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  Speaker 1: years where we've had such outsize gains. Doesn't look as
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: good if you take out seven for c p I. No,
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  Speaker 1: but I don't think I think we're gonna be seven
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: cp I for very long. But who knows, we'll see Sammy, Tammy,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I'd love to get your thoughts here on crypto because
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: we get so many questions about that. And I wonder
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: when one of your good clients calls you up and says, Tammy,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: what should I be doing with crypto? Should it be
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: in my portfolio? How do you respond to that? Well,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: we don't advise on crypto at this point at ubs UM.
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  Speaker 1: It's still a big unknown for us. Even the term
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: crypto has many different UM terms associated with it. UM.
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  Speaker 1: We do believe that perhaps the there will be a
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: crypto market. We're certainly seeing it UM. I think coin
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: base was UM reported as having gun and started to
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: do alternatives in the crypto bocket UM options. So we
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: think that it will exist. But it's just too speculative
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: for us to get our owns around right now. I mean, man,
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: you'd be super rich and with all your clients if
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: you had been advising starting ten years ago. Is it
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: something that you're increasingly think thinking about. Is it something
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: that you know UBS financial advisors need to take a
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: course on. Well, I think that we we are watching
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: it very carefully and UM not to be argumentative, but
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: we would have rich people if we got them in
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: ten years ago. If we got them in twelve months ago,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: maybe they would have half as much money because it's
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: still be super rich twelve months. Twelve months is pretty
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: good for for bitcoin. I mean right now, um, you'd
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: be looking at a rise over the last twelve months
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: of about well not everybody's uh into this crypto thing
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: like you've been on it since the beginning. All right, Tammy,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Tammy, Hey, good
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: financial advisor at GUBS giving thoughts on these markets. Let's
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: bring in our next guest please, Isabel Winkles, CFO of Braves.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: That's a publicly traded company symbol b r z E
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: about five point eight billion dollars in market cap. They
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: are cloud based software company. Isabel, thanks so much for
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: joining us. We're not going to ask any car questions,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: but we'd love to just start with talk to us
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: about Brays. What do you guys do? Where do you
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: fit into that technology stack? As it could say, yeah,
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: thank you for having me so. Braise is a leading
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: comprehensive customer engagement platform that powers interactions between consumers and
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: the brands that they love. So with Braves, global brands
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: can power contextually relevant, personalized cross channel campaign marketing campaigns
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: that build lasting, high value relationships between these brands and
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: their consumers. Hang on, I gotta get my millennial dictionary
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: out here to understand what you're saying. Um. And also, oh,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: you know what, I only interact with brands that I
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: hate for the most part on social media. Is that
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: does that make me unusual? I usually reach for social
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: media when somebody's really made me angry, typically in airline.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: That's funny. So you know, the brands that we are
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: that that we service are really across multiple industries. We
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: service brands UH in retail and e commerce, beyond demand space, media,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: entertainment and streaming. We're within the financial services sectors. Were
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: incredibly broad. We service about it dozen different industries globally. Um.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: And so you know, it's less about the interactions that
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: happen on social media and more about really the first
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: party relationship that is built between yourself as a consumer
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: and the individual brand that actually you want to develop
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: a relationship with, and and you are willing to download
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: that app stage on a mobile side, on a website,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: and you're actually hoping to to really get as much
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: out of that brand as possible, and that brand wants
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: to develop that through genuine relationship with you and need
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: to message you in a way that fields relevant, actionable,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: personal and timely. So what kind of brands do you
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: typically work with at Braise? I mean, I'd love to
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: get a sense of just kind of like your typical client. Yeah.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: So again, you know, across a doten different industries, both
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: in the US and outside the US. Of our revenue
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: comes from outside the US. But maybe, um, you know,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: the best thing is to to sort of give you
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: a customer example. UM, And I'll actually pick one that's
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: kind of outside of the traditional kind of retail set sector, uh,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: and one that's outside the U S. So a company
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: called Canvas. This is a software as a service company
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: based in Sydney, Australia, and they actually offer online design
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: and publishing platform UM. And their mission is really to
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: empower everyone in the world to basically be able to
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: design anything and publish their content anywhere. So they came
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: to us and they bought Braise, and what they were
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: really looking to do was just better support this vast
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: design community around the world, and they wanted to be
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: able to produce more targeted and helpful content to these
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: to their various users. So they needed a way to
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: reach millions of users across the globe with this more
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: relevant information tailored to their local interests, and they needed
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: to do it numerous languages. So as the Solution and
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Grace poward this, they executed an email campaign that actually
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: increase their overall email distribution but actually managed to increase
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: the overall UH click through rate and engagement rate UH.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: And they were able to do this in a way
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: that targeted their users with highly relevant content. They were
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: able to do it in multiple languages to be as
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: relevant and applicable. And what that does is really make
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: the end users feel like Canada is actually paying attention
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: to what it is they want, what it is they
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: need UH. And it helps to build that trust and
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: that ongoing relationship and turns a casual user into potentially
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: much more of an evangelist, which is really what the
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: brands are looking to do over the long term. Yeah. Absolutely,
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: it seems like it would take a lot of personnel.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: What kind of growth, UM, what kind of employee base
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: are you looking at? So were our company has over
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: a thousand employees UM, and you know we've been growing
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: uh several hundred employee head counts year over year. Uh,
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: and so our our growth has been material in terms
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: of our top line. That's kind of batched our top
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: line growth. We've been growing, you know north you can
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: see our our most recent quarter. We were north of
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: sixty year over year growth in the quarter. Um. The
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: market opportunity that is ahead of us is just sumterial.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: We talked about a sixteen billion dollar ham in the
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: US alone. That's a huge market opportunity. You know, we're
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: a company that's sort of operating in sort of the
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: you know, two hundred million dollar revenue range at the moment.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: There were so early in our ability to continue to
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: penetrate the market. The growth opportunities material. Isabel, thanks so
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: much for joining us and explaining Braise and what you do.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: Isabel winkles there. She is the chief financial officer of
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: Brais ticker b r z E. Let's get over to
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: another fan of four on the floor. Barrier Holts joins
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: us right now. Bloomberg opinion columnist and the host of
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: Masters of Business, the popular podcast, as well as a
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg opinion columnist, and I probably most importantly, UM, you
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: make calls on the market for clients. Barry and I
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: wonder what your take is on the Fed path right now.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: It seems like consensus is that they're gonna taper, run
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: off the balance sheet, and raise rates. And now we're
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: hearing some people say Golden Sacks says four times, and um,
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Jim Bullard said, you know, yeah, maybe four times is right.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: But I've heard a few contrarians out there say, you
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: know what, as soon as we get a twenty percent correction,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: as soon as the market dies by percent or thirty percent,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get the plunge protection team coming back to
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: save us. What do you think? So, first, the plunge
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: protection team has done a pretty terrible job, assuming they
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: exist in assuming that's their job description. We went through
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: a thirty four percent crash, in a fifty seven percent
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: crash in o eight oh nine. I was just looking
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: at peak to trough. Nasdaq fell eighty two point nine
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: from the peak in March two thousand to the lows
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: in October oh two. I'm not saying these guys are
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: bad at their jobs, but really, how you know, at
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: what point does it become clear that they don't do
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: what they're supposed to do? This they're supposed to be
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: liquidity and the system is supposed to function, but their
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: role isn't to stop markets from rolling over and ps.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you've noticed, but this is a
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: pretty hot economy. This is a pretty strong economy. I'm
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: My contrarian take is the world will be fine if
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: there are four increases that bring us up to boo
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: hoo one percent, FED funds rates well and running off
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: the balance sheet. I mean muhammaday arian Um says he's
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: been saying for a long time, there behind the curve,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: but he likens this to a football team that is
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: behind with two minutes to go and has to all
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: of a sudden hurry up on their offense with maybe
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: a Hail Mary for the touchdown, but also maybe throwing
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: an interception or fumbling the ball. Yeah, I'm a I'm
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: a fan of muhammadalarians, but that's a terrible metaphor. A
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: football game has sixty minutes and then the clock ends.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: Last I checked, the duration of the FED balance sheets
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: is until the sun explodes in seven billion years. So
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: I think we're not in the two minute warning. If
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: you think they're behind the curve, meaning inflation has gotten
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: away from them, and you ignore all of the supply
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: chain issues. Uh, maybe you can make the case that
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: they should have been raising earlier. I don't really see
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: what the problem is getting off of this emergency footing
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: and onto a more normal rate regime. Money is not
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: supposed to be free, borrowing capital is not supposed to
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: be zero, and you know, the US running a GDP
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: higher than China, that's not supposed to happen. So just
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: taking us to normal isn't isn't the worst thing in
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: the world. So how should your client's position their portfolios
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: barry in what will be an environment where rates will
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: be rising the short the intermediate term at least. How
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: do you think about that? So you you have to
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: understand why you have fixed income in your portfolio for
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: the past couple of years. Uh, it hasn't been for yield.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: It's been for balance that is less volatile than equities. Uh.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: There are a handful of exceptions to that, like tips
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: have done very very well. The Treasury inflation protected bonds,
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: which are part of our fixed income portfolios, have had
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: a great couple of years and probably are are going
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: to do pretty well for the next few quarters or beyond.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: But you know, we don't see any of the usual
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: signs that suggest this economic cycle is coming to an end,
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: or that the markets are you know, excessively valued or
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: a long in the tooth. I've been hearing for a
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: decade since you know, two thousand and ten eleven, lower
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: your return of expectations. Hey, eventually that'll be good advice.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: But it's been eleven years of of thirteen percent a year.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: That's a tremendous, tremendous run. And then you add in dividends,
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: it's even better. We don't see any signs that the
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: trend is about to end anytime soon. It's been you know,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: it's been a fool's error and trying to guess when
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: the underlying trend in the market UH is going to
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: come to. By the way, you should do a column
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: on the things you hear at the beginning of every year.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: At the beginning of every year, it's gonna be UH
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: stockpickers market active, is gonna trounce passive. There's gonna be
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: a rotation into value overgrow oath um. Just starting to
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: see that value rotation. Cliff Fastness just was quoted in Bloomberg. Hey,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: it's a little early to to take a victory lap.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: But we're seeing we're starting to see that so at
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: least that it appears to be coming true. The the
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: stockpickers market. We we've been hearing there for a long time.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you've noticed, but last year, the
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: which was also supposed to be a stockpickers market, they
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: underperformed the SMP five hundred five four hundred basis points
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: unless you want to include dividends, and then it was
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: over five basis not not. Last year was not a
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: stock pick You know what you I've been hearing the
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: last couple of years is Europe is going to be
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: the place to be. It's trading at such a huge
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: discount to the US, and now it's the continents time
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: to shine. But it seems like they always managed to
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: stimy growth in some way compared to America. I misunderstood that.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: I thought they were referring to vacation destinations, like what's
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: more delightful than sitting in a cafe in Paris with
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: an espresso on a sunny spring day or full day
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: and a date of your But but you know, so far,
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: the rotation into either emerging markets or developed x US
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: that hasn't been the winning trade I'm hearing emerging markets
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: a lot lately too, especially on the FX side. As
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: the dollar gives up its gains. I love watching that. Well,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: I don't take pleasure in it, but I think it's
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: fascinating watching the dollar come down. The Bloomberg dollar in
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: X was eleven nine in November, and now we're down
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: at eleven sixty. Yeah, that's gonna make it a little
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: price you to go to those European vacations. Look, you know,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: everybody sort of focuses on the new year as if
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: it's something significant. The fact that here we are again
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: in January doesn't change the underlying trends. Calendars are human inventions.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: The economy in the market is gonna do what it's
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: gonna do. It doesn't care about the flip of the calendar.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Up all right, Barry, thank you so much for joining us.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: Always appreciate getting your thoughts. It makes Thursday subspecial here
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Markets, Barty Ridold's Bloomer Opinion columnists and host
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: semesters in Business uh for Bloomberg Opinion. Thanks for listening
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen
• 25:18
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• 25:23
  Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Pt on Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at
• 25:32
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