Latest / Beyond the Summit with Amir Golshani / Iran at the Breaking Point: Collapse, Chaos… or Democracy? | Kian Tajbakhsh

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Iran at the Breaking Point: Collapse, Chaos… or Democracy? | Kian Tajbakhsh · Beyond the Summit with Amir Golshani

• Amir Golshani: Welcome back. Professor Kian Taj Bash is a respected scholar of urban policy, governance, and civil society with a career that bridges academia, international development, and lived political experience. He has worked with institutions like Columbia University, NYU, and international organizations focused on social development and public policy. But beyond his academic work, he carries something far more rare. firsthand experience of political imprisonment inside Iran and a deep understanding of how power, institutions, and society actually function under pressure. Today we explore not just Iran's future, but the deeper question of state power, freedom, resilience, and what it really takes to rebuild a nation. Professor Tajbrash, it's an honor to have you here. Kian: Well, Alire, thank you so much for inviting me onto your podcast. Amir Golshani: Fantastic. You have lived in both worlds, inside Iran's system and outside of it. Before we get into geopolitics, I want to start with you. What first drew you into studying governance and civil society? Kian: Well, I became in all aspects of civil works, ⁓ as were, because I studied civil engineering. Now, actually, it's not usually the case that someone who studies civil engineering is interested in the civil side of that. But it turned out that I wasn't actually very good at engineering. I wasn't very interested in engineering, I was very interested actually from my very first years in education, looking at actually the social, the political, and the managerial aspects of how societies build themselves, actually. The ⁓ whole sort infrastructure around ⁓ what civil works used to be called civil works, bridges, roads, and so forth. As say, I wasn't talented at the sciences, at math, and so forth. But I was by how societies actually built huge kinds of ⁓ infrastructures. And actually, it's interesting you ask, ⁓ I I did my major, I did my senior thesis as an undergraduate on political, ⁓ the technological, all those aspects of how the ancient Egyptian society built pyramids ⁓ and Amir Golshani: Wow. Kian: Although I was interested in some of the science, some of the technology, I was mostly interested, I became fascinated by looking when I researching that to discover all the different ⁓ and economic ⁓ managerial aspects of how this society actually, how they actually collected all the materials, how they collected people who were ⁓ mostly labor and the idea Amir Golshani: Right. Kian: of slave labor and who was the managers, who were the organizers of this, and what was the motivation ⁓ the ⁓ of building pyramids? And it turned out to be much more fascinating than I initially thought. So Amir, that's an interesting question. I think this is the first time ever I've actually thought about this. Amir Golshani: Because it's always Kian: and actually explained. Yeah, but where it came from and it just continued from there. Amir Golshani: I really love that, you know, it is fascinating how you started and how it continued. So that being said, was there a moment early in your life that shaped how you think about power and freedom? Kian: There was actually, and again, it's one of those iconic moments. When I was around the age of nine or 10, I think, I was studying ⁓ ⁓ English boarding school. My father lived in Iran, in Tehran. He worked for the Shah's government. He was not a political appointee. He was a civil servant who worked ⁓ at senior level in the government doing administrative work. And I ⁓ used travel from Tehran to London, to the to the boarding school. And I remember once when I had to take a flight to London via Moscow. And so this about 1970, maybe 70, 71 at the height of the Cold War, the, at pretty much the height of the Soviet communist experiment. I remember once when I had to take a flight to London via Moscow. And so this was 1970, guess, 70, 71 at the height of the Cold War, And I was a little boy and I was sitting in the chair when the plane landed in Moscow to take on new ⁓ Amir, I'll never forget this. ⁓ a man sat down next to me. He was wearing full ⁓ Army uniform. And soon as doors closed and it began to go down the runway and it took off. I heard him say, I guess it was English. with a big sigh, freedom. Amir Golshani: Wow. Wow. Kian: That has stayed with me ever since I was a child. Now, interestingly enough, I did have a intellectual, I had an emerging intellectual context to understand this. And that was mostly my mother who had, my parents had separated. My mother had moved to New York City. And she was very interested in ⁓ socialist thought. she, her father, ⁓ who been a ⁓ businessman I think a technocrat in Iran, he had introduced her to the thought of Fabian socialists. These were 19th century socialists who were very aristocratic upper class and thought that, you know, that ⁓ dealing the poor of the country was ⁓ very report that they were mostly English at the time. My mother had imbibed these and took it very seriously and she would talk about it with me and my brother and she had a lot of friends who were on the left, the more left wing side of ⁓ and ⁓ heard about this. I never myself followed that kind of very left wing point of view but I did hear a lot about the questions of justice. ⁓ questions of equality and questions of freedom. And I remember I put these two together, very palpable experience of someone who was very mysterious to me. He was a Soviet and very scary, a scary communist soldier, but it so incongruous to hear him say. and feel freedom. And from that moment, I always became fascinated with that. And I think it went into me and I and the books I read, the novels I read were I always resonated with those aspects of it in which people strove to become something new or they were escaping some kind of constraint. And the idea of a free world really did appeal to me. So I think that was a very formative experience. Amir Golshani: Thank you for sharing that, you so I love it. It's so fascinating how your philosophy and way of thinking is shaped. You have experienced something very few scholars ever do. You've been inside the system you analyze. So what did imprisonment teach you about the Iranian state that often ⁓ You've been inside the system you analyze. So what did imprisonment teach you about the Iranian state that often misunderstand? ⁓ Kian: I want to be about it, but Iran is not for Let's put it this way. what I would say about Iran as a country ⁓ is that it is actually much more opaque. It's harder to decipher. It's harder to understand. It's harder to grasp. If you can imagine a lot of people emigrate to the United States and a here and forge a life here. Very few people emigrate to Iran, a country like Iran. think it's very difficult to fit in. It's very difficult to find your way to fit in. ⁓ And I think that there's a kind of, there's a thickness, there's a viscosity to the culture which requires a lot of tacit knowledge. think that's what would say about. ⁓ Iran and Persian culture. ⁓ Tasset meaning it's sort of hidden behind everyday words. It's not straightforward and that's why it's actually very difficult and I think you can get tripped up. And ⁓ think ⁓ if there one big kind of experiential thing I learned about the country, it was that actually navigating it Its legibility is very hard. You know, it's like learning Chinese, I guess. It would be thousands of different characters which are very, very different. And Persian looks simple. I mean, the culture looks simple. It's very hospitable. It's very warm. ⁓ there are layers and layers and layers of complications which trip you up. I think that's the thing that took me away. This is not a criticism. I'm just saying it's very hard to navigate. It's like a landscape that has a lot of beautiful scenery, but there's a lot of cracks rocks you can trip up ⁓ in. I certainly did trip up, right? Amir Golshani: I totally understand the complication that you mentioned. So this is a great point. If someone from the outside really wants to learn and understand Iran, Iranians, their culture, very briefly, how should they do so? Kian: Well, I guess I would say the first thing to do is they would have to go live there. one thing I've learned is that there is in Iran ⁓ artistic culture and there is a kind of social culture. What most people... ⁓ ⁓ see and what they admire very reasonably usually the of artistic culture, literary culture, symbolic culture, visual culture, and other kinds of ⁓ maybe kind hospitality related culture. In other words, the poetry of Hafez, the ⁓ beautiful paintings. beautiful calligraphy, guess like you could see behind me, have a beautiful calligraphy. The food, the hospitality, the kinds of very formal etiquette that is used in interactions between people. But the reality is that that's what I call the aesthetic or the or the artistic culture of the country. That's what most people see and they interact with the media, what they interface with first. But the culture ⁓ really makes the ⁓ and political aspects the country run. And ⁓ that very... ⁓ Amir Golshani: All Kian: And that's not obvious and it's not easy and it's not always understandable or pleasant even, you know, but it's like any culture. it is sort of like under the, it's that big amount which, volume which is under the water, the iceberg that is hidden under the water. Amir Golshani: Right. So you have first-hand experience. How does power actually operate behind the scene, beyond ideology and slogans? Kian: Well, mean, power in Iranian culture behind ideology and the slogans. when I say the Islamic Republic is not a normal country, I mean it in its literal term. mean, when ⁓ the assumptions, the foundations of the regime, the government that has been running the country since 1979. What I discovered when I was in prison and often actually talking with people outside who weren't part of the regime is that, but certainly this is true of the people who are in the regime. It's like they're living in a parallel world. And many of the assumptions with which they understand the world, see the world, would seem like upside down to a ⁓ westernized And of course, many Iranians who leave Iran and become integrated in the West, either in Europe or in the United States, adopt ⁓ conventional forms of what I would call normal society. Of course, normal and abnormal is relative, right? I mean, as I say, if you live in a parallel world, I mean, a lot of the so-called ⁓ followers, the Hezbollahis, the... Amir Golshani: Absolutely. Kian: the followers of the political model, they really do see the world upside down. You know, there's a wonderful anecdote or joke, Amir, ⁓ which sure you've heard, but I'll relate it here because ⁓ it's telling. You know, apparently, ⁓ so the goes like this. There's a man in Tehran driving in his car, let's say on one of the highways, Hemmat Avenue, he turns on the radio and the radio announcer says, you know, to all drivers, be very, very careful. There is a car driving in the opposite direction, in the wrong direction on the motorway. The man is startled. He rolls down his window and he looks outside across the old morrow and he says, car driving in the opposite direction, all cars are driving in the opposite direction, in the wrong direction, right? Amir Golshani: Absolutely, ⁓ Kian: And in fact, that was actually an anecdote, apparently, of the German, I think it was a German foreign minister, actually said to Zarif, was the ⁓ foreign of the Islamic Republic, mean, the Islamic Republic really does believe that everyone in the world is driving in the wrong direction on the motorway and only they are driving in the right way. And they that only the Iranian Islamic ⁓ is the one. Everyone else is wrong. Every law, every other kind of ⁓ way living is ⁓ wrong and they are the right ones. ⁓ Yes, right. so this is something in the psyche and I think there is something Amir Golshani: And this is the result of that. Yeah, we can see that. Kian: I mean, I don't like to speculate too much in terms of very long historical kinds of narratives. But, you know, it is amazing, Amir, if you go back to read Herodotus, the Greek historian who wrote about the ⁓ Persian wars, Greek-Persian wars. The way he describes Persians then, it's familiar. It's sort of like uncanny if you can actually, the idea being very flowery in the speech also. ⁓ the idea of being ⁓ giving a lot of flattery, tamallok, right? Tamallokkui, and also being very proud and conceited in a way, and also lacking a sense of irony and self-reflection in terms of, you know, laughing at oneself and, you know, taking one very seriously. ⁓ these elements ⁓ ⁓ culture which strike. They're not the only one. I don't want to make a huge generalization. But I think this crystallizes into the sense, into this Islamic regime, that they are right and they have a right to use violence ⁓ to be able to repress people who oppose them. Amir Golshani: Right. Kian: And so that's why you have this revolutionary totalitarian type of regime. And that's the way power works. And me being in prison was a pure expression of that. You belong here. I what I very keenly was they telling me, you do not belong here. You don't belong in this country. You don't belong in this. regime, we don't want you, we don't value you. And that's a way in which power is very abusive, I think. And I felt very abused and I felt completely devalued by that system. Not by all Iranians, but by that system. But also Iranians were also, I have to tell you, where, you know, Iranians can be a little bit xenophobic. They can be a little bit suspicious of people from outside. But that gets very accentuated in the regime. Amir Golshani: If you don't mind, what were your indictments back then? Kian: Yes, well, I was indicted for undermining state security. So ⁓ is actually an article of the Islamic Penal Code. it was ⁓ so there are two types of I was I was charged with two ⁓ groups of ⁓ One was state security ⁓ by I was I was charged with two groups of indictments. ⁓ was undermining state security ⁓ by engaging in subversive activity inside the country. But I was also indicted for treason. That is to say, working with an enemy power. engaging in subversive activity inside the country. So tabani and other types of collusion and collaboration with people to hurt, insult the regime's leadership, to undermine the foundations of the Islamic Republic, the assumptions and so forth. But I was also indicted for treason. That is to say, working with an enemy power. ⁓ and working for ⁓ aggressive enemy power that wanted to overthrow the regime. So ⁓ indictment carried the charge of capital punishment and death. Well, the first did also, actually. But of course, they weren't going to just for most people, they weren't going to... on that, although of course they do execute many people who ⁓ feel they've just done that in the last few weeks, who ⁓ felt they're... Amir Golshani: There is a famous saying in Iran that everyone is potentially guilty until their time comes. in Iran that everyone is potentially guilty until their time comes. Kian: That is so true, Amir. think that that, I mean, again, one doesn't want to but there is ⁓ there some truth to that, yes, you have to, in a sense, prove your innocence. That is so true, Amir. think that that, I mean, again, one doesn't want to but there is ⁓ ⁓ is some truth to that, you know? It's about like, yes, you have to, in a sense, prove your innocence. ⁓ think that puts a finger on something important. Amir Golshani: very unfortunate and lucky you survived. So ⁓ you've often emphasized that Iran is not just an authoritarian regime, it's an organized system. What makes the Iranian state resilient despite pressure and crisis? I don't know how successful they're going to be this time. Kian: Yes, thank you. Well, I think I would have to say the first element that gives resilience is and almost fanatical religious faith. mean, that's, know, you believe that, if you in, ⁓ if you a level of conviction that is so strong, that is obviously going to make you very resilient. that's just on the, that's one element. And of course your resilience includes, which is very ⁓ for Western way of life, the idea of martyrdom ⁓ in the ⁓ of good in the path of God, they say, right? mean, in the path of God, if you are martyred, so, I mean, obviously, this makes a very resilient person, right? They can they can suffer a lot. And especially if you feel as as most and I would probably say all pious believers do that suffering is actually a sign of your, know, it's a challenge. Yes, your sign of your purification. It's a sign of your resilience. You're showing God that you're resilient. So the idea of suffering is not necessarily a bad thing in that that respect. So that makes you ⁓ resilient. The other thing that I think makes the Islamic regime very resilient ⁓ is an ⁓ degree ⁓ Amir Golshani: purification of. Kian: I think social understanding amongst Persians and Iranians. I don't mean just Persians. I mean all Iranians. And what do I mean by that? I think that of these multi-layers that I mentioned, Iranians are very, very, and Iranian culture is a very psychological culture. People are very psychologically attuned. Because of things like Tarof Amir Golshani: Right. Kian: And because you're brought up in Iran to understand instinctively as second nature, how to navigate text and subtext, the overt and the covert, the ⁓ and what's underneath the level of, ⁓ you all these things that we learn in Persian and in Iranian culture, it makes us psychologically ⁓ It makes Persian culture and Persian people more psychologically attuned, I think, than the case in ⁓ society. It also makes it, I think, sometimes pathologically attuned. That is to say you're overly sensitive, you're overly complicated. But what this means is that human relationships, human relationships, And this is paradoxical. And this is one of the things I, you might find surprising, I tell you about Prison, is that there is a level of affection, a of level of resonance between human beings throughout Iranian culture that is thicker in a way, more resonant, more emotionally, know, operates the emotional level more than it does in the West. And again, I'm not I'm not putting value judgments. I'm not saying when it's good or bad. What is it? But what it means is, for example, even with prison guard in Iran, I would have kind ⁓ of interaction. which was often much more human than I could have with even someone maybe in New York. Now that's not always a good thing because I think that's one of the problems with Iran. It's a, tradition, all traditional cultures, they are what sociologists refer to as hot cultures. Everything warm and anonymous are difficult to tolerate in Iran. I don't know whether you can, whether I'm making myself clear. Take it. Amir Golshani: No, exactly, because don't want to argue this to say something like, you know, so there might be an exception, you ⁓ have been lucky to have such a prison guard, you know, because I understand the culture, I understand. Kian: Yeah, yeah. mean, the idea of a hot culture. mean, OK, so here's the downside of a hot culture. The problem ⁓ of a let's say a warm culture is that one of the ⁓ ⁓ a modern liberal society is actually a level of distance and coolness with your neighbor, for example. Right. I mean, take, for example, the Persian expression fadof fadoz besham. I'll be sacrificed for you. Right. Amir Golshani: Right. Kian: Well, you don't want to, you know, you don't want to have a relationship necessarily with your, the grocer on the call, you know, the guy you buy your, you know, at the supermarket, you don't want to say, you know, I, I, you know, you know, I, you know, will be sacrificed for you because you did my dry cleaning. You know, it just like doesn't work, you know, because it, you know, because, but, but I think, you know what I'm saying? I mean, it's like, yeah, so. Amir Golshani: I'm done. You 100 % Kian: Actually, I'll tell you a very interesting anecdote about the problem of how modern life, cities, gets complicated in Iran. So in a modern society, and again, I'm not saying this is good or bad, but it is necessary for modern, complicated societies to have a level of anonymity and coldness in which our relationships are relationships of citizens and neighbors. and so forth. And then then you have warm relationships in which you have deep friends. Let me give you an example. in a modern society, right, you want to be able to cross the road. And feel ⁓ safe you're going to be alive when you cross the road because the car is coming right now. The reason why we do that in a modern society, we can do that in a modern society is because we have a convention, we have a rule which is sort of like, this is the zebra crossing or whatever it's called, and this is the light. That's all we have to know, right? Is like, if the light is mine, I get to cross it. And if ⁓ the driver, you have to stop. Now in Iran, it doesn't work that way. mean, ⁓ are better now, but ⁓ think many people would recognize what I'm saying. Actually, no stops. Amir Golshani: road. Kian: for a pedestrian crossing in Iran, right? I mean, they just go and people cross the street anyway. there's this little dance where you don't look at the driver and he doesn't look at you, right? he wants to go as fast as he can and you want to cross and you know, you know. if you're the person walking across the street, that the only way you can get the car to stop is actually to look at the driver in the eye. And what happens in Iran is that as soon, you know, the guy could be driving at 60 miles an hour, he's perfectly willing to like, you know, mow you down. But as soon as he sees you, what does he do? He slams on the brakes and he says, Amir Golshani: You Ha ha ha! Kian: Now that's sociologically very interesting because he actually respects you. He respects you. He doesn't want to kill you, know, drive you, you know, drive you over. But he respects you as a heart, as someone who can understand ⁓ personal terms. He doesn't understand you in impersonal terms. this ⁓ is maybe just an example of the complication ⁓ understanding Iran. Amir Golshani: I know. I really love it. You're touching some subtle aspects of, know, daily culture that we experienced there, you know, So if this pressure on Iran, Kian: right. Amir Golshani: on this Islamic regime, let's say, know, continues. Where do you expect the first real cracks to appear? Kian: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. question. I mean, I it's a good question. I think, I mean, I, it's hard to say exactly, but I think that we're going to see it probably in some of lower ranks ⁓ of maybe the Although I don't want to exaggerate that some people I think mistakenly think the Artesh and the Sepah are sort of so completely different, but they may be a little bit. But I think at some level you're going to see some cracks at the lower ⁓ at the the medium and lower level of the military ranks. I think you might see some cracks amongst the. maybe some clerics or technocrats who are in the corrupt economic system who feel that their money is going to be But I think that what I think the cracks will come probably not so much psychologically from the core true believers. But from basically the organizational system will fall into disarray. They won't be able to communicate with each other. mean, even now, for example, they say that the IRGC, the SAFA has activated what they call the Mosaic Doctrine, which is this decentralized system where each Ostan each province has its own commander. I mean, that gives them resilience in the short term. But over time, they really are more and more autonomous, they won't be able to coordinate with each other. And when they're left alone, then they will ⁓ not able to get any backup. And they'll just maybe not give up and refuse to follow orders to shoot protesters, for example. The other place I think you'll see And it's hard for me to tell. I have some families, some distant family, who are very, very, mostly on my wife's side, who are very, very pro-regime, very religious, very fundamentalist, very pro-regime. I cannot imagine them up weapons ⁓ and fighting ⁓ the street the regime collapses. and it's just some protesters on the one side and there's a pro-regime, ordinary people on the other, non-military people on the other. I think these non-military, very religious pro-regime people will just go home because I don't think they're really ready to fight. I may be wrong. I hope I'm wrong. Amir Golshani: Right. So there is a growing talk about military escalation. How real is the risk of broader conflict beyond the Middle East? Specifically, last night, Islamic regime launched two missiles toward Diego Garcia, which is 4000 kilometers away from Iran, beyond what they've achieved so far, that it's an alarming, you know, thing for Europe mainly. Now, that's ⁓ How real is the risk of broader conflict beyond the Middle East? Islamic regime launched two missiles toward Diego Garcia, which is 4000 kilometers away from Iran, beyond what they've achieved so far, that it's an alarming, you know, thing for Europe mainly. Kian: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Amir Golshani: really risky situations so they claimed that they won't go beyond 2000 kilometers but obviously they have the capability. Kian: Yeah, I mean, I think that I think this is almost like a suicide note ⁓ the Iranian regime. I mean, at this point, they have, ⁓ know, by launching this kind of attack, they have just proved to the world that they are a threat, an intolerable threat to many of the powers and countries around them. They've united the Arab countries, many of them who were trying sometimes to help the Islamic regime. They've them against Iran. ⁓ And Europe sitting on the sidelines ⁓ until recently. by shooting, you know, by threatening missiles that ⁓ could reach Europe, going to unite Europe. I mean, they're going to make ⁓ Europe take a ⁓ aggressive and support the US, which I think we've already seen. So I think that, ⁓ know, I don't think the idea of escalation could go on for very much longer. They're just gonna be hit so much harder. ⁓ I mean, ⁓ now by the US Israel and probably Europeans. The only thing I fear, Amir, ⁓ and I hope it doesn't come through, that The only I fear, Amir, ⁓ and I hope it doesn't come through, is that They have kept some kind of nasty dirty hidden ⁓ for kind of last They have kept some kind of nasty dirty bomb hidden ⁓ some kind of last gasp. I hope that never happens. But I ⁓ ⁓ regime is sealing its own fate, basically, by doing this. Amir Golshani: That's a very concerning thing even to think about. another biggest pressure point is economic, economy, see that it's impacted. If this disruption at straight of Hormuz most continues, what happens to global markets in the short term? another biggest pressure point is economic, global economy, see it's impacted. If this disruption at of Hormuz most continues, what happens to global markets Kian: Well, in the short term, there's going to be disruption. Obviously, there's a large increase in the price of oil. But frankly, I think that President Trump acting like a very classic statesman in which economic short-term economic ⁓ considerations are playing ⁓ a major He knows that everything has a cost. This is something he's decided to ⁓ ⁓ undertake, he and he will absorb, he will absorb the cost. He go to the American people, he will go to the European people, and he will say that this is a cost that we have to absorb in the short term for a long term economic prosperity. ⁓ And think that's not an unreasonable forecast ⁓ for make. frankly, I think with this level of this level of asymmetrical military power, I think that the Islamic will last for more than two or three weeks. I I think that, ⁓ I mean, the sense of having any offensive capabilities, I mean, I pretty much all their weapons will be either. ⁓ you know used up or had been destroyed ⁓ Very likely the US and Israel are going to send in ground troops to secure ⁓ any the uranium the things that could you know be used for a nuclear weapon. So I ⁓ think there will be short term escalation. I could imagine that the Islamic Republic and IRGC are holding some kind of weapons. I mean, the big things to worry about is one, as I mentioned, the kind of dirty bombs, some chemical weapons, which they might onto, ⁓ I hope this happens. But also like something like a very advanced anti-ship ballistic missile that actually hits an American aircraft carrier and damages it severely. But that's a cost of war. Obviously any army factors that in. And if that happens... There are only two options. You go bigger or you give up. And I don't see President Trump giving up at this point. So he would just double down and just hit the Islamic Republic harder. Amir Golshani: It's very, very frightening to even mention it. If ⁓ want to go bigger, then there would be a possibility of using tactical nukes, know, which is horrible. Even know, so everyone knows they have it. Kian: the Americans? I think from everything I know, mean, of course we wouldn't know, I be extremely, extremely surprised that if there was ⁓ even talk about that amongst, there's no need to do that. The conventional weapons they have are so big and strong. it doesn't really help because what they need to do is they need to pinpoint taking out The launchers the factories that produce the missiles drone factories that the drone fields themselves ⁓ I Yeah Amir Golshani: In the recent days, I hear that on the media more and frequently. I don't know, it's for public opinion, know, preparation or... Kian: Yeah, think it's so I think I think it's almost impossible. I mean, you know, I mean, I, you know, what one would what one would pray that that would never happen. But I doubt very, very much that there's no need. mean, I think the Islamic Republic, a military offensive capacities are almost, I think they're probably almost that 90 % destroyed now. Why would you want to? Why would you want to ruin a conventional campaign? Amir Golshani: I hope so. You're right, the only... complication that remains on the table is this choke point that they're holding straight of Hormuz But the thousands of Marines that are coming to the Middle East, you know, ⁓ and Kian: Yes, I think that'll be open. I think that'll be open within the next two weeks. Amir Golshani: Okay, okay. is that fair to say that this coalition European countries plus Japan who agreed to join task force of reopening or keeping the straight open, ⁓ that would be effective? Kian: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. I say 80%. I would give it an 80 % probability that it will be effective. Amir Golshani: Okay good. So there is a lot of speculation the strategy ⁓ but little clarity. What do you think is actual end game for Israel? Kian: I personally, from what I'm reading and following as closely as I can, I think the end game is fairly clear. The goal is to neutralize the threats to Israel from the Islamic Republic of Iran. does that mean a change in leadership? Well, that in a sense depends on the leadership. It depends on the regime. I think the end game is fairly clear. The goal is to neutralize the threats to Israel from the Islamic Republic of Iran. If the regime gets to a point where they say, okay, we've had enough, we accept ⁓ terms. And the way, know, everyone talks about ⁓ everyone. a, you know, a lot of think tanks in DC are, you know, misguided a lot of American people. There's lot of Iranians too, who, you know. end up being supporting the Islamic Republic in effect. The discussion between war and diplomacy, for example, it's mistakenly framed it's either one or the other. It's never either one or the other. Diplomacy and coercion are two sides of one coin. War is an element of statecraft in the international system. Currently, ⁓ Diplomacy and coercion are two sides of one coin. War is an element of statecraft in the international All diplomatic options are on the table for the Iranians to respond to the preconditions, to the conditions or preconditions that President Trump put forward. He put forward three preconditions. Any Iranian leader at any point right now could come and say, okay, fine, we agree. We ⁓ those ⁓ which is no enrichment on Iranian soil. ⁓ removal of all uranium from Iranian soil, capping and limiting ballistic missiles, and stopping all support for proxies in the region. If they say we accept these, the war would pretty much come to an end, and leadership would have to guarantee that in the future. That would guarantee, and also, and stop eliminationist policy against Israel. So if they do that, then Israel has ⁓ its national security goals. It doesn't particularly care who's in charge in Iran. It's the Delci Rodriguez playbook from If the leadership in Iran continues to say under no circumstances will we change our policy, leadership in Iran continues to say under no circumstances will we change our policy, Then you have to change. Then for Israel and the US and the Europeans to achieve their national security goals, they have to change the leadership because as soon as the offensive capabilities of the regime are destroyed and the war stops, they'll just start rebuilding again, which is what they did after the 12 day war. Then for Israel and the US and the Europeans to achieve their national security goals, the leadership They will begin refunding Hezbollah in Lebanon. They will begin sending ballistic missiles to them. They will begin trying to reconstitute a nuclear weapon. And so you have to get rid of the leadership. So actually, you know, the idea of the end game, I think that the flaw in the debate in the United States or around generally about there is no end game is that it doesn't depend just on one person. It doesn't just depend on one side. It depends on two sides. Amir Golshani: Right, exactly. You mentioned a very critical point. Let's imagine a turning point. If the current system, weakened significantly, which is happening and we are witnessing that, ⁓ happens next? Is there any preparation internally or externally for a transition? Who ⁓ the kinds of actors that could realistically step into negotiations or leadership? Who ⁓ are the kinds of actors that could realistically step into negotiations or leadership? Kian: So I have made the argument and I published an essay, a couple of essays, one in Project Syndicate called Iran is more ready for democracy than many people think. Iran more ready for democracy than many people think. That comes from my study of over 20 years of on the ground scholarly research, traveling all around the country, doing deep empirical research That comes from my study of over 20 years of on the ground scholarly research, traveling all around the country, doing deep empirical research on how the public administration system works inside Iran, how the bureaucracy works, how the government services work, how decision making and budgets and all those things ⁓ organized and executed ⁓ at national, provincial and the city and village levels. ⁓ What I found is a very robust system, a quite effective system. It's not necessarily efficient in the sense of cost benefit, but it is a relatively effective system. There are thousands and thousands of very dedicated, non-ideological technocrats and bureaucrats inside Iran who would be happy to continue under a secular, free democratic system. So the personnel are there, the institutions are there. and some of the leaders are there. Let me just say a word about the institutions. The institutions of the Islamic Republic of Iran can be easily understood as two parallel columns, right? They're two parallel columns stuck together. On the one is the theocratic system of the, that's the Islamist of the Islamic Republic. These are all the hierarchy of institutions under the supreme leader and all the ones which are dedicated to the Vela-e-Tafadi, to the Islamic revolutionary ideology. And they go from the supreme leader to the Guardian Council, to the expediency council, to all the judiciary, to the IRGC. to the seda va sima which is broadcasting. These are all the main arms, right, of the Islamic system, the regime, the Islamic state. On the other side is the system of so-called Republican or Democratic institutions. These are the elected president, the elected parliament, elected municipal and provincial councils, village councils, a bureaucracy. Amir Golshani: Right. Kian: that is relatively in sending down plans, the ministries that supply water, health, education, so electricity and so forth. The end game for a transition is to actually strip out get rid of that first column. If you get rid of that first column, what you have is this other institutions which are, which are, which exist. And I refer to them as dual use institutions. They can be used for democratic Republican purposes, but currently they are co-opted by the Islamic regime. They are dominated by them. They're used as a weapon to control the society as opposed to. Amir Golshani: Right. Yep. Kian: Yeah, so that's how I see it. So they are there, those institutions are there, and there are also some leaders there. I'm happy to talk about them too. Amir Golshani: Right, you've made an important point, know, systems cannot just be destroyed, they need to be repurposed. How much of Iran's current institutional structure can actually be used in a future system, if you get rid of the first column you mentioned? systems cannot just be destroyed, they need to be repurposed. Kian: Yeah, feel substantially we are in a very, very advantageous situation. This is why Iran is not Libya, it's not Afghanistan, and it's not Iraq. Because in those situations, those either didn't exist, or they had to be rebuilt, or they had to be built from scratch. This is not the case in Iran. You can go to Iran right now and almost immediately go and see those institutions working. They are unfortunately under the control of the Islamist rulers. But I think that substantially that institutional body is there. And I think that is what will prevent Iran from falling into chaos or becoming a failed state. Now, the leaders, ⁓ believe there's a lot of discussion amongst the diaspora about who should be the leader and who should not be the leader. My experience tells me that to actually run that system, know, it's like as if, you know, imagine if we that Iran has an old pay con, you know, the old Hillman cars, right? You know, it's of those interesting things about countries. Actually, you pay con was discontinued. The Hillman Hunter, I think it was called, right? It was a car. It was called the Hillman Hunter from the 1960s. And that car was discontinued by the Hillman Motor Company sometime in the 70s, I think. Now, how come Iran could could continue having millions and ⁓ most popular car until I think maybe 15, 20 years ago in Iran was this was this Hillman Hunter. Now, the point was that there was a whole ecosystem. Of auto mechanics. who knew to repair and run ⁓ Hillman hunters. No ⁓ else in the world did. I think they were, know, the engineers even in the UK were probably, you know, had moved on to new kinds of models and new kinds of technology. But Iran had repurposed the Hill, had created a whole ecosystem of mechanics, of parts, of all these things to actually make this system run. So as a kind of analogy of the way in which these institutions are complicated and they work. They're complicated in every country. The point what I'm trying to say is that you need people who know how that system works to be integrally involved in running it. Now, maybe not necessarily it from the top, but they have to be very close. And that's why I think The best possible transition for Iran to a post-Islamic state order is one in which the whole series of leaders, could be Mr. Pahlavi, who is ⁓ the monarchist from outside, Republicans, secularists, all of them get together, but do not exclude, do not expel some who ⁓ are Iran today and who are committed. the whole series of leaders, could be Mr. Pahlavi, who is ⁓ the monarchist from outside, Republicans, secularists, all of them get together, but do not exclude, do not expel some leaders who ⁓ are in Iran today and who are committed. I believe some are to a democratic future, non-Islamic future, and they should be brought in too. I think a big kind of controversy, ⁓ I think that those leaders and those managers are there to make the system work well. Amir Golshani: I love that. Let's talk about something many people struggle with, the lack of unity. Specifically, you mentioned Why ⁓ is there so much division among Iranians, especially outside the country? Kian: I wish I knew. mean, to be honest, it's a bit of a mystery to me. I mean, I'm someone who loves ⁓ bringing together. I'm very good at networking. ⁓ I ⁓ it's important thing to do. The only answer I have is there's an old philosophical expression in the West. You take care of freedom. Truth take care of itself. ⁓ Whereas ⁓ older traditional cultures think think in the opposite way. Amir Golshani: Right. Kian: They say, you take care of truth, freedom will take care of itself, which is the way in which the Islamist regime thinks. We have the truth, once you have the truth, you will be free. The truth makes you free, which was an old way of saying. Actually, the modern way of thinking, democratic way of thinking is no, you take care of freedom, then truth will take care of itself. It'll just come out through the conversation. I think we just need, I think we just need practice. mean, look at Iraq, for example. Our country at all, ⁓ our I say your viewers may, don't know whether you allow ⁓ some humor in ⁓ podcast, but ⁓ know, yeah, know, Shappi khorsandi has an absolute, Amir Golshani: Right. Of course. Kian: She's an comedian, stand-up comic, who is the daughter of Hadi Khorsandi. And she had a great stand-up line in one of her stand-up routines she says, you know, a of my friends ⁓ confuse Iran and They got them confused. And she says, I have a very simple way of explaining it to them. She said, always say Iran is the one with the weapons of mass destruction, which I think was just like ⁓ absolute perfect line. But look at Iraq, for example. I who would have thought Iraq, who never had democracy, who never had a pluralistic political system? Ever since the 2003 U.S. invasion, Iraq has had seven elections. They have not committed genocide against their own people. They haven't launched a war against any of their neighbors. Yes, it has plenty of problems. And I'm aside the U.S. role in that ⁓ for the But the fact remains that they've had practice ⁓ in circulating and having elections. And we just have to have practice. And I think that Iranians, what I saw of Iranians is that if the leadership gives them space, are actually tolerant people in the sense of being able to be open to hearing other people's point of view. And I think that needs to be given, but it has to be given from on top. Amir Golshani: Right, absolutely. In the past couple of years, specifically Iranians, especially Iranians in diaspora, know, they have proved that they can be great team players support and solidarity of people who are sacrificing their lives, in Iran especially. But as you mentioned beautifully, you so we need to practice to listen to each other's differences, not to say In the past couple of years, specifically Iranians, especially Iranians diaspora, they have proved that ⁓ they can be team players in support and solidarity people who are sacrificing their lives, in Iran You are either with me or against me. If we can work on that, you know, that would be a turning point, I believe. Kian: Mm-hmm. I could bring ⁓ perspective in from social science and political science, ⁓ it's well known amongst Iranians that we ⁓ have what call a run-tier state because of the oil. And there is way in which institutions and resources reinforce a type of psychology. And I think that Amir Golshani: course. Kian: when you have a single source, like the government, that gets the money from the oil and it doesn't need money from its people. through taxes, then what happens is your relationship with power becomes very, very, the stakes are extremely high. In other words, you're either in or you can be out because the ruler, the ones that control the money, could cut you out or cut you in. Now in ⁓ in a, in a modern capitalist economy like the United States, of people's everyday life, their livelihood, the money that we get to live our everyday life, doesn't come from the government. It comes from working in the marketplace. We have So what capitalism does is it allows Amir Golshani: That's right. Kian: or a free market society does is that it allows people to depend on source of power. And when they don't depend on the source of power, in a sense, the government doesn't really matter that much to your everyday life. I mean, it does matter, but it's not Hayati It's not like, you know, it's not like it could actually take your life away or take your livelihood away. for a majority of people. mean, the proportion of people in the United States and Europe and modern societies that work for the government is very small, whereas in Iran, it's very large. So I think one of the things that needs to happen in Iran to help incentivize a much more tolerant relationship with the question of policy and politics is for the private sector to grow, for people ⁓ be less dependent on politics, ⁓ Amir Golshani: Right. Kian: And so when they're having a political discussion and when they're having a political argument, they realize there's not that much at stake. All right, fine. We disagree. We agree. Disagree, you know, so forth. and, you know, the idea being that if I lose this round of the argument, I'm not going to be either killed or eliminated or put in prison or even, you know, lose my livelihood. So then you can have more tolerance. So that's one point that I would just add, but I think for the future of Iran, very important to grow the sector so that people are less dependent on the government. Amir Golshani: I love it. Absolutely beautiful. So Professor Tajbrash, you have studied freedom, ⁓ you have fought for it, the first encounter that you had at the age of nine, know, so as you mentioned, and you have had it taken away from you. After everything you have seen and lived through, what does freedom mean to you today? Professor Tajbrash, you have studied freedom, ⁓ you have fought for it, the first encounter that you had at the age of nine, know, so as you mentioned, and you have had it taken away from you. Kian: You know, for me, freedom means both material and in a sense, spiritual imaginative levels of being human. So material, ⁓ is a reality to that in which you need a material base to support yourself. Right? So you need a That's why economic growth and prosperity is very important. That's why economic stability is very important for someone to be able to live a free life. It doesn't mean living a opulent life. I don't believe that. You don't need opulence. You don't need wealth. You don't need tremendous riches. You just need a basic stability in your life so that then ⁓ you can go and explore what it means to live who you want to be. The second ⁓ political freedom. You must have political freedom in the society. That is to say, ⁓ you must ⁓ able to your ⁓ point of view politically in a free way. But I am a classical liberal. I'm not a classical Democrat. And I'll explain what this means. classical liberal values his or her freedom more than ⁓ values or her ability to influence government and public policy. We value that. It's there. most but most people, freedom means ⁓ classical liberal values his or her freedom more than values his or her ability to influence government public policy. but for most people, freedom means being able to not participate in politics if you want to. being able to not participate in politics if you want to. mean, in other words, if you don't want to participate that much in politics, you don't. But you can, you must be able to if you want to, because if you see ⁓ political direction that is against what believe in and is hurting your interests, you should be able to mobilize. But once you have the economic basis of freedom and once you have the political basis of freedom, the real place of freedom is the freedom to explore your life your own being as you see fit while respecting and interacting with other people. And for that, I have to say the best resources are any of the philosophies and any of the spiritual resources that the world and humanity has given us for you to be able to explore for yourself with other people who you voluntarily choose to associate with. Not that a state forces you to do it or that a political party forces you to do it. And for me, ⁓ right now ⁓ the meaning of freedom right now is to, again, let me start again, is to see my daughter thrive, is to see my family thrive and be safe. But ultimately, it's for me to contribute to my society. And then probably as I get into the final third of my life is to... really explore for myself what it means to grow as a human being. The human imagination, the human heart, the human mind. All of these things are things which are the basis of freedom. It's something that a totalitarian state, an authoritarian state, It's something that a totalitarian state, an authoritarian state, a fascist state, don't want to allow humans to have that freedom of imagination to be able to live their life as the way they see fit. a fascist state, don't want to allow humans to have that freedom of imagination to be able to live their life as the way they see fit. And so ⁓ just as they see fit, but as they see as most valuable as growing as at a at a psychological level to become an integrated human being. There's so much. ⁓ humans. There are so many complicated layers to being human, which is not easy. People carry trauma, people carry pain, people carry love, desires, all sorts of things. And society should be there to support that freedom for people to heal and to grow. I guess that's what I end up saying is to heal and to grow and ultimately to love. Yes. Amir Golshani: I love that. Thank you so much. Is there anything that you rarely ask about and you want to talk about? Whatever it is, if there is something, the floor is yours. Kian: guess one thing I would like to say is at ⁓ current moment my life is I would to express gratitude for The country United States that helped me, ⁓ saved ⁓ and me free ⁓ from and allowed me to come back here, this country is not perfect, but it's a place I think I would like to express my gratitude to. And I would like to express my gratitude to all the people in my family, inside Iran, outside Iran, who valued, I think this is the final thing I would like to say, is who value the costs to me and my family's lives. that were taken by the Islamic regime. I lost more than 10 years of my career, but ultimately because of those people who supported me and who valued, not just supported me by the way, I mean, it's the people who value and understood the sacrifices and the... and the costs. And by the way, the costs I've given are very little compared to the cost that many other people have given, who have given their lives, who have been killed, who have suffered much more greatly. But I think I would like to, as I say, express my gratitude in the best part of the United States history, it values the struggle for freedom, and so does those people who supported me. And that's what I would like to Amir Golshani: Professor Tajbash, thank you for sharing both your insights and your lived experience with us. It truly means a lot. Thank you. Kian: Thank you very much. It's been a pleasure and an honor. Thank you.