Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 498 - 4/23/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 All systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now hello and.
- 0:14Welcome to episode 498 of the All Systems Go Sports.
- 0:19Betting podcast powered by. Rhythm, I am your.
- 0:23Host Josh. Applebaum.
- 0:29What's going on, everyone? Happy Thirsty Thursday.
- 0:32But more. Importantly, guys, happy.
- 0:34NFL Draft day. That's right, we.
- 0:37Got the draft upon us. And I have an.
- 0:39Official best bet pick. For the NFL Draft and it.
- 0:42Has to. Do with the number two pick so.
- 0:45If you've been. You know, living under a rock.
- 0:46Or maybe who knows, it's your first time listening to this
- 0:49pod. That's OK.
- 0:50Too maybe you fast. Forward and just say hey, get to
- 0:52the breakdowns of the games. But we've been having our eyes
- 0:56focus laser. Focused on this.
- 0:57Number two overall pick. Will be David Bailey.
- 1:00Will be Arvel Reese well, I have a bet for you.
- 1:02I made the bet pick it and stick it.
- 1:05Let's see if we can cash a ticket and I probably will be
- 1:07adding more NFL prop bets for the draft.
- 1:10So highly recommend everyone if you're looking for.
- 1:12Late plays. Because to me, it's game day
- 1:15Steam. We always have respect for
- 1:17because that's the limits are raised biggest bets.
- 1:18Come in, but you are just seeing.
- 1:20A ton of movement across the board here and.
- 1:23That movement is most. Likely getting ready to.
- 1:25Ratchet up even higher. Even more.
- 1:27As we get to the final hours before the draft, so the draft
- 1:30is. I think 8:00 tonight, 820
- 1:32something. Like that you.
- 1:33Know when you get to like 5 PM, 6:00 PM later in the night,
- 1:36that's in these lines really move.
- 1:38So I could add some some later bets here, but I do have.
- 1:41One official bet? Best bet for you.
- 1:43For the NFL draft, which is another big shop for the best
- 1:46line opportunity because this number is hovering, you know,
- 1:49different areas. It's like. $0.50, More $0.50.
- 1:51Less than other books, so I got an.
- 1:53NFL draft prop bet for you, then we're going to get right back to
- 1:56Major League Baseball. I have two.
- 1:58Bets in MLB. It's a smaller.
- 2:00Than usual. Slate today only nine games
- 2:01overall. But I got a.
- 2:03Couple. Day day games for you, a couple
- 2:05day sweats. Hopefully you can get some
- 2:06winners before we. Get to the draft here for
- 2:08tonight. So I have a couple couple day
- 2:11games. I got a dog and I got a.
- 2:12Favorite. Let's see if we can get at least
- 2:14one of them. If we can get both, that would
- 2:15be. Even better.
- 2:16So 3 pack overall NFL draft best bet, 2 MLB best bets.
- 2:21And then always want to remind you guys.
- 2:22That because it is a Thursday. We got a rhythm rundown tonight
- 2:25so myself. My buddy Kate Harper.
- 2:27Will be hosting the Rhythm Rundown six to seven.
- 2:30PM Eastern Time tonight. All you got to do.
- 2:32If you want to tune in and. Probably we'll talk about some
- 2:34NFL. Draft bets as well.
- 2:36Late breaking action, so highly recommend.
- 2:38It's not just. You know, MLB and NBA.
- 2:40But we'll be talking about NFL as well because I love that late
- 2:43movement. It's always important to me, but
- 2:45anyway. 6:00 to 7:00 PM. Get right on Twitter.
- 2:47You can click my. Profile icon it'll it'll have a
- 2:50little little circle. Around my profile.
- 2:52Picture it'll say live you click it, boom you.
- 2:54Get right in. So hope to see everyone six to
- 2:56seven. PM Eastern Time tonight.
- 2:59Now looking back to our last night, guys, bust out the
- 3:01brooms. Don't let the boys get hot. 3
- 3:04and O + 1.98 units. Started the night off with a
- 3:08Braves. Winner Braves were up 1.
- 3:10Nothing in the first I'm like, here we go.
- 3:11Then they gave up. I think it was three or four
- 3:13runs in the bottom. Of the first one, like Jesus,
- 3:15what the heck's going on? But the Braves bats went off.
- 3:19They end up. Hanging on winning 8 to 6.
- 3:20Against the Nationals, they had that.
- 3:21Road favorites team which? Was good to see.
- 3:24Then we had a. Winner there with the.
- 3:25Cubbies break up the. Cubs.
- 3:27Man, 7 to 2 over the Phills and I actually have a.
- 3:30Bet on the Cubs. Phillies today.
- 3:31So hint, hint. But Cubs came through once again
- 3:33for us. And then late night.
- 3:35The snakes. Baby, the Diamondbacks.
- 3:37I know my guy. Daruche cash another.
- 3:40Murakami anytime home run. So shout out to DA Roush.
- 3:43But I did get the White Sox 11 to 7 winner by the D.
- 3:47Backs over Chicago. So I was nice.
- 3:49To see with both. Are all three of them, the D
- 3:51backs, the Braves and the Cubs all coming through?
- 3:54So 3 and O + 1.98 unit night. As always guys, we're going to
- 3:57not. Get too high when things are
- 3:59good, not get too low when things are bad.
- 4:01Going to try to eke out another winning day here for today.
- 4:03So I want to save the NFL draft. Best bet for the second-half of
- 4:07the pod because again, this is a.
- 4:09Really interesting conversation about who we'll go to overall,
- 4:11and I think we did find an edge here.
- 4:13But then also I. Want to get to baseball first
- 4:16because. These are both day.
- 4:17Games so we want to talk about these.
- 4:19And give you some time to put them in.
- 4:20Before first pitch. So first, but on the board,
- 4:23let's go right back to. Wrigley Field baby.
- 4:26Chicago Cubs. Hosting the Phillies is a 2:20
- 4:29PM. Eastern Time, first pitch.
- 4:31Let's set the stage. Talk splits, line moves, rhythm
- 4:34system plays, all of it here. For Cubs and fills.
- 4:37Now the Cubs come in 15. And nine on the year they've.
- 4:40Taken the 1st. Three games of.
- 4:41This four-game set, I think we've been riding them every
- 4:44game, haven't we? They won the opener. 5:00 to
- 4:451:00. As a -. 115 home favorite They
- 4:48won the. Second Game 7 to 4 as a -130
- 4:50home favorite. They won again yesterday, 7:00
- 4:52to 2:00. As a -. 195 home favorite.
- 4:55And that was late Steam too, because I think.
- 4:56We got Cubs around -175 so it was good.
- 4:59To see how late. Movement break our way.
- 5:01Now pitching match up. For tonight or this.
- 5:03Afternoon, I should say. The Phills.
- 5:05Who are 8 and 16 They're. Going to go with.
- 5:07The lefty Christopher Sanchez. He's 2 and 21. .59 ERA Cubs,
- 5:12meanwhile, going to go with the ready Edward.
- 5:13Cabrera he was. Acquired in a trade.
- 5:15From the Marlins, he's 2 and O 2.38 ERA.
- 5:18So 2. Two good pitchers here on the
- 5:20bump, a lefty and a righty. Now what are we seeing across
- 5:23the market? Well, this game open Philly.
- 5:25Listed as a minus. 130 Road favorite Chicago A.
- 5:28Plus 110 home dog. Now, before we even talk line.
- 5:31Movement split system matches all.
- 5:32That kind of stuff. Think of it this way, Cubs are
- 5:35red hot, Phillies are ice cold. But Phillies are favored.
- 5:39And again. Can the Cubs sweep A4?
- 5:41Game set Somewhat of a rare thing.
- 5:43Ace is on the. Bump for the Phills with
- 5:44Sanchez. What do you think?
- 5:46What are pros going to do? Are they going to say Phills are
- 5:48going to avoid the sweep? It's a short number with their
- 5:50ace on the mound. Or are they saying, hey, you'd
- 5:53be you'd be stupid not to continue to ride the Cubs?
- 5:56The way they're playing, especially at a plus money
- 5:57price. Well, it looks like the.
- 5:59Latter, not the former. Because we've seen this line.
- 6:01Fall away from Philly. Philly's falling from -130.
- 6:05Down to -125 and I'm actually seeing some books.
- 6:08Down to like. -115 now. The line has.
- 6:10Moved toward the Cubs. Open plus 110 now they're plus
- 6:14one O 5. I'm seeing them plus 100 now.
- 6:16Even a couple books going around a -. 1 O 2.
- 6:19So line is going. Away from Philly toward Chicago.
- 6:22Chicago coach Ditka, so that tells.
- 6:25Me that we got. Smart money.
- 6:26Riding the Cubs. So that's what I'm doing, guys.
- 6:28Give me the Cubs here. You look at circa Cubs are
- 6:31getting. 76. Percent of money line bets 84%
- 6:35of money line dollars. So good.
- 6:36Low bets, higher dollar split here in their favor, telling us
- 6:40the bigger, sharper wagers out in the desert are also going
- 6:42with the Cubs. Cubs also match quite a few
- 6:44systems, a lot of dog systems. So if you look at just dogs in
- 6:47general this year, guys. They are 167 and two O 1.
- 6:52Now again, spread sport. That's a big losing record.
- 6:54Because you're laying the. Juice but.
- 6:56Remember when you are. 160. 7 and 2O.
- 6:58One only winning 45. Percent of the.
- 7:00Time is a dog. In a money line sport.
- 7:03Because of the plus money payouts, that's pretty good.
- 7:05That those dogs have generated a 3% ROI. 11 units one.
- 7:10Home dogs Let's try to layer in more things, get them to be even
- 7:13better. Home dogs Cubs are a home dog
- 7:14here 60. One and 62, nearly a 50% win
- 7:18rate. But a 10% ROI because of the
- 7:21plus money payouts. Dogs off a win would also match
- 7:24with. The Cubs. 84 and 91. 48%, but a
- 7:276% ROI. So all of those systems matching
- 7:30with Chicago? Along with that line move and
- 7:32the good bet splits out at circa.
- 7:34Chicago also have some correlative.
- 7:36Betting value because the total in this game is 9.
- 7:39We even seen some shops get up to 9 1/2.
- 7:41So again. More expected run scored, more
- 7:43variance. More upset opportunities benefit
- 7:46to the team getting plus money now hopefully.
- 7:48Cabrera can pitch well, and Cubs can get to.
- 7:51Hopefully Sanchez here today. But the Cubs?
- 7:54Are hitting overall better than the Phillies?
- 7:56They're hitting 259 as a team, 351 on base.
- 7:59Percentage. They've scored 131 runs.
- 8:01Phillies hitting 2/22/90. 6 on base.
- 8:05And 82 runs scored. Next you got some.
- 8:07Lefty righty advantages for Chicago They're.
- 8:09Hitting 278 against lefties, that's the 4th.
- 8:12Best in baseball? Phillies only hitting 240.
- 8:14Four against righties. That ranks 15th and of.
- 8:17Course Home Rd. Cubbies play pretty well.
- 8:19Knock on wood at Wrigley. They're 10 and five at home this
- 8:21year. Philly is just three and six on
- 8:23the road. Lastly, not only do.
- 8:26You have the line. Moving towards Chicago, good
- 8:28split system matches better bats correlative betting dog high
- 8:31total but I popped open. Rhythm and I noticed.
- 8:35Three rhythm recommendations. All lit up.
- 8:38On the Cubs. And two of them are a green.
- 8:40Star system match. So Rhythm likes the Cubs
- 8:43tonight. So do I guys.
- 8:45We've gone 3. And oh with.
- 8:45The Cubs this series again, I don't.
- 8:48Want to be greedy? But looks to me the value play
- 8:50is taking Chicago here at that line move.
- 8:52I got Cubs plus. 110. At BET MGM earlier today using
- 8:56one of their. Coin boost their plus one O 5 I
- 8:58got them. Up.
- 8:59To plus 1/10. Shop round looks.
- 9:01Like your best numbers plus one O?
- 9:025 but some. Books getting down to plus 100
- 9:05so try to get as much plus money as you can but.
- 9:07I did ride the. Cubs plus 110 to hopefully start
- 9:11our day off with a winner. Next one for you.
- 9:13Let's go right? Back to the desert. 3:40 PM
- 9:16Eastern. Time first pitch.
- 9:17The White Sox. Visiting the Snakes now.
- 9:20This is the rubber match of a three-game set.
- 9:22The White Sox are 9. And 15 on the year, they did win
- 9:25the opener. Though 11:00 to 5:00.
- 9:27Cashing as a plus. 120 Road Dog. D backs, meanwhile, 14 and 10 on
- 9:31the year. They bounced back with an 11 to
- 9:34seven win yesterday for us, came through as a -, 150.
- 9:37Five home favorite. Now pitching match up for this
- 9:40late. Afternoon series finale The
- 9:41White. Sox are going going to go with
- 9:42the ready Davis Martin. He's three and one with a 2.16.
- 9:46ERA Diamondbacks, meanwhile. Going at the righty.
- 9:48Michael Soroka, he's. Four and O with a 2.78 ERA now.
- 9:53What do we see across the market here?
- 9:54Well, this game open Arizona listed around a minus. 145 home.
- 9:58Favorite Chicago? A + 120.
- 10:00Five row dog and. We've seen pretty clear movement
- 10:03in. Favor of the.
- 10:04Diamondbacks, I'm going right? Back to the.
- 10:05Well, with the snakes. Here guys, we've seen Arizona
- 10:08get steamed up -145. Up to -155.
- 10:12I'm seeing some shops creep up to. -160.
- 10:15So all movement. Liability has been in favor.
- 10:17Of Arizona, now at Circa. D Backs 78.
- 10:21Percent of money line bets over 90% of money line dollars.
- 10:25So a. Lot of low bets.
- 10:26Higher dollars sharp. Money coming in in.
- 10:28Favor of the Diamondbacks in Vegas.
- 10:30Arizona would have that interleague favorite value.
- 10:33So same thing as the non. Division, but even more
- 10:35interleague. Lack of familiarity benefiting
- 10:37quote UN quote the better team who's expected to win
- 10:40Diamondbacks have betting system value or have additional value I
- 10:44should say. Offensively, So let's see.
- 10:46If the bats hopefully can get to Martin, let's hope Soroka can
- 10:49pitch a a good game today. But they are hitting as a team.
- 10:52Two 51115 runs. Scored White Sox.
- 10:55Hitting 2/22. 100 runs scored. Soroka, if you remember, he was
- 11:00really good with Atlanta and then he then he got hurt.
- 11:01And he was kind of a a journeyman.
- 11:03Well, knock on wood. But he's been good.
- 11:05This year, especially at home. He's 3 and O at home. 1.59 ERA.
- 11:10He's home. Tonight or today?
- 11:12Arizona, meanwhile. Also the better.
- 11:13Bullpen team ERA. Of 4.5 O versus White Sox 5.75,
- 11:18that is the third worst. Bullpen ERA in baseball.
- 11:22And then Home Rd. Once again, Diamondbacks 8 and
- 11:24four at home. White Sox 6:00 and 9:00 on the
- 11:27road. Lastly, I did have actually
- 11:29believe it or not. Three rhythm recommendations on
- 11:32the D backs run line. So if you wanted to go -1 1/2
- 11:36there and chop that price up quite a bit, you can get like
- 11:39plus 130 + 135. But I'm just going to go money.
- 11:43Line here I got D backs -155. I believe that was fanatics but
- 11:48definitely shop around because some books closer to -1. 60 so.
- 11:51Cubs Plus 1/10. D backs -150. 5 Let's try to get
- 11:56at. Least.
- 11:56One of them if. We get both.
- 11:58That'll be even better. Now without.
- 12:01Further ADO, here is my official.
- 12:04Best bet for the NFL draft? Now let me take a step back.
- 12:07Because if you've been. Paying attention or you're
- 12:10interested in line movement? Or this is just something that.
- 12:12You've had your eyes. On all week.
- 12:14This has been unbelievable. With the second overall pick,
- 12:16what are The Jets going to do with the second overall pick?
- 12:20It's really been back and forth and I say that not just like,
- 12:23you know, here, there. But it's been literally almost.
- 12:25Every day it's flipped. From David Bailey.
- 12:28The pass rusher from Texas A. Texas Tech going second overall,
- 12:32and then IT. Goes to Arvel Reese.
- 12:34Out of. Ohio State and IT.
- 12:36Goes back and forth, back and forth, back and forth, and.
- 12:40Part of me was like. OK, let's wait and see which.
- 12:43Direction the slate move. Breaks but.
- 12:44Then the other part of me. Is like, let's lean on some of
- 12:47these quote UN quote experts. And maybe I'm, you know, not
- 12:50giving them the credit that they deserve.
- 12:51These are real experts with filing their final mock.
- 12:55Drafts. Now the thing with mock drafts,
- 12:58which is. Important to me and is the big.
- 13:00Distinction you got to make. Is it's almost like.
- 13:02You know when people. Talk about follow the money.
- 13:05Which is true. But you.
- 13:06Don't want to? Follow the dumb public money.
- 13:08You want to follow the. Smart money.
- 13:10So when it comes to mock drafts, you know.
- 13:12Everybody's got them. I must.
- 13:14Admit I Google. Them all the time see what
- 13:16people are saying. But you got to know the source
- 13:18because you. Know some of these?
- 13:19Mock drafts are coming from. People who have no insight or
- 13:23Intel whatsoever. You know someone you know who
- 13:26has A and I don't want. To make fun of these.
- 13:28People because again, I started off from nothing too, but you
- 13:30know web your own website in your grandma's basement again
- 13:33you got those mock drafts all. All due respect to.
- 13:37You know those people in their. Grandma's basement.
- 13:39But then you. Got the mock.
- 13:40Drafts that are coming from people who are dialed.
- 13:41In. And by dialed in, I mean that
- 13:43they talk to people. They have, you know, sources.
- 13:46They talk to people. Inside.
- 13:47Different, you know, different. Clubhouses.
- 13:50Different Intel people. Different scouts.
- 13:53And a lot of. These people are.
- 13:54So dialed in. And they basically have what I
- 13:57would call smart money. And tonight is going.
- 13:59To be the perfect test case of whether or not.
- 14:01These. Insiders are right.
- 14:03So with that being said. Drum roll, please.
- 14:07Please. David Bailey or Arvo Arvel
- 14:10Reese, second overall. Go with David Bailey.
- 14:14Now here's my thought process. Number one, let's shop.
- 14:17For the best line and then I'll give you my reason why I'm
- 14:20taking Bailey so. David Bailey to go second.
- 14:22Overall and. Again, this could change.
- 14:24Because it's. It's. 12:28 PM.
- 14:27It's just afternoon where I'm at in Boston again when you hear
- 14:31this. Whether?
- 14:31It's immediately or later. In the day.
- 14:33This line could be moving. Hopefully in our direction, it
- 14:36could be it could be going the other.
- 14:37Way we shall see. But David Bailey to go second.
- 14:40Overall at Caesars. -135. FanDuel.
- 14:44Minus. 130 Bet MGM -150 The. Score -140 DraftKings -135.
- 14:52Fanatics, though David Bailey, second overall. -125.
- 14:56S 1st angle is. Let's get the best.
- 14:58Price. I bet.
- 14:59David Bailey. Pass rusher out of the Texas A&M
- 15:02Red Raiders. -125. At Fanatics to go first, second
- 15:06overall. Now here's my thought process.
- 15:08My thought. Process here is.
- 15:09One this has. Gone back and.
- 15:11Forth, you know, you go back like a week ago I think.
- 15:14I was reading a report from David Purdum.
- 15:16He wrote an article for ESPN. Actually, It's kind of
- 15:19interesting. Exactly with this.
- 15:20Topic How betters are split over Bailey versus Reese?
- 15:23But at one point, Arvel Reese. Was -400 to go second overall
- 15:28and again. Record the pods, you know, go
- 15:30back to him. You know.
- 15:32Pick the day it. Was -150 Bailey?
- 15:34It was -1. 50 Reese. It was back and forth, back and
- 15:36forth. Well, late money is toward
- 15:39Bailey. Bailey is still.
- 15:40The favorite today? But here's.
- 15:42What I think is the edge, the edge is that all of these very
- 15:46dialed in people. Who put out mock?
- 15:47Drafts are also. Going David Bailey second.
- 15:50Overall. So Field Yates.
- 15:52And these are. All the final mock drafts that
- 15:54got put out either yesterday or this morning.
- 15:57Field Yates of ESPN. Very dialed in guy.
- 16:00He has Bailey going second. Overall, Albert Brier of.
- 16:04Monday morning quarterbacks SI he has.
- 16:06David Bailey, second overall. Mel Kiper has David.
- 16:09Bailey Todd Mcshay has. Bailey, Daniel.
- 16:12Jeremiah Has. Bailey.
- 16:15Peter Shrager has Bailey, all of those guys.
- 16:18Field Yates, Albert Brier, Mel Kiper, Todd Mcshay, Daniel
- 16:21Jeremiah Schrager, They all. Have David Bailey second.
- 16:24Overall. So my question is, is it
- 16:27possible? That all of these people are
- 16:28wrong. I mean it's possible, but it
- 16:31tells. Me that they're dialed in.
- 16:32They've been. Doing this for a long time.
- 16:34If they're going to release their.
- 16:35Final mocks and I think it's. Almost like a bragging.
- 16:37Rights thing. Who's got you know who's the
- 16:39most accurate? They.
- 16:40All have David Bailey. So that.
- 16:42To me is the edge and the other. Thing you're reading is that.
- 16:45It's not like Bailey is 2 and art and.
- 16:47Arville Reese is 3. Today, Albert Brier's mock came
- 16:51out. He.
- 16:51Had Reese #4. Peter.
- 16:53Peter. Schrager and and.
- 16:55Field the eights had. Reese Number. 5 So it's not just
- 16:59that Bailey is. Two and and and.
- 17:01Reese is. Three, but they actually have
- 17:03Arville Reese. Dropping a bit.
- 17:04Now let me read to you just some of these.
- 17:06Breakdowns, which can give us some information here.
- 17:09So the first one is from field the eights.
- 17:12This came out this morning. Two Jets.
- 17:15David Bailey. The Jets made meaningful.
- 17:17Progress this offseason through free.
- 17:18Agency editions on defense, but. The team must add more youth.
- 17:21To their pass rush. Room Will McDonald was the only
- 17:24Jets. Player with more than 4 sacks
- 17:25but half of his eight. Sacks came in a Week 10.
- 17:27Against the Browns, I had Bailey here in my last mock draft.
- 17:30And I'm sticking with him again. Bailey boasts the best first
- 17:33step in the class and plays with aggressive hands and instincts.
- 17:36He had. 14 half sacks in 2025, tied for the most in.
- 17:39FBS so field the eights. David Bailey #2.
- 17:42Let's go to Albert Brier. Let me.
- 17:45That was all the way down to 31. See.
- 17:47What my patriots? Are going to do.
- 17:49But let's go to Breer. His mock draft also.
- 17:52Came out today. Two Jets, David Bailey.
- 17:55I've been here for a while and I think.
- 17:56This is about. Creating some light at the end
- 17:58of the tunnel as. The Jets bridge to 2027 at the
- 18:01most important position on the field.
- 18:02The reality is that a locker room doesn't care about its GM
- 18:05or coaches three-year plan it wants.
- 18:07To know how. You're helping your guys now.
- 18:09And Bailey, whose advanced. Stats as a.
- 18:11Pass rusher stick out. Is best.
- 18:13Suited to do that. Let's go to Daniel Jeremiah #2
- 18:17here. Jets David Bailey The debate.
- 18:19Continues here. Bailey, OR.
- 18:20Arvil Reese, I'm going with Bailey.
- 18:22As the more refined. Player.
- 18:24With the more defined role. Pairing him with McDonald.
- 18:26Gives The Jets 2. Fastballs off the edge.
- 18:29Mirroring the team GM. Darren.
- 18:31Moogies Moogies previously worked.
- 18:34In Denver, last one. Let's go to our guy Peter
- 18:38Schrager. I respect he's been pretty
- 18:40accurate years and for years and years.
- 18:42He's got 2 jets. David Bailey quote I've had
- 18:45Bailey going to The Jets for. The past month.
- 18:47And I have no further. Intel telling me any
- 18:49differently? Ohio State's Arville.
- 18:51Reese is a great player, but I'm.
- 18:52Sticking with Bailey, New York needs is instant.
- 18:54Production for its lackluster pass rush.
- 18:57So that's my edge, guys. The betting market has Bailey as
- 19:02the favorite. And all of these dialed in
- 19:05people. Who have industry sources and
- 19:07talk to different executives. They all have daily.
- 19:09David Bailey second as well. Field.
- 19:11Yeah, it's Breer, Kiper Mcshay, Jeremiah Schrager.
- 19:14They all have. Bailey going second.
- 19:16Bailey's a short. Favorite now if.
- 19:18Bailey was minus. 400. Would I bet this?
- 19:20Probably not, but you can get -125.
- 19:23At Fanatics again, other. Books -130 as high as -140.
- 19:27-150. It's really not a bad price, so.
- 19:31Maybe this is a? Smokescreen.
- 19:32Maybe The Jets are playing 3D chess.
- 19:34And it's Arvel Reese. But then also that means all
- 19:38these insiders. Got duped and I find it hard.
- 19:40To believe that Yates. Breer, Kiper, Mcshay, Jeremiah
- 19:44Schrager all got duped. Again, it could be possible.
- 19:47You know, it's definitely possible because this is the
- 19:50time of year where everyone lies about everything.
- 19:52But if all these. Experts who are dialed in.
- 19:55Are going with Bailey. And the betting market has
- 19:58Bailey favored and it's a relatively short number.
- 20:01That's my bet. So let's cross our fingers.
- 20:05Let's get We know Mendoza's going.
- 20:06One, he's -20,000. OK, let's see if David Bailey
- 20:09can cash for us. I got.
- 20:10David Bailey. Second overall pick -125 at
- 20:14Fanatics and of course could have more bets so definitely
- 20:18follow the all systems go Best bet picks from Juice Reel.
- 20:20If I add any, you can always check them out there.
- 20:23But Cubs and D backs? And David Bailey second.
- 20:26Overall 3 pack. Let's try to get 2 out of 3.
- 20:28Eke out a winning day. So that about does it for
- 20:31episode 498 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
- 20:35powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
- 20:37where we wrap. Things up and always start first
- 20:39by. Saying thank you, thank you for
- 20:41listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for grinding in
- 20:43the arena. With me every.
- 20:45Single day through the good and the.
- 20:46Bad the UPS and the downs. The winning days.
- 20:48The losing days. But it means a lot to me that
- 20:51I'm humbled and honored to host this pod.
- 20:53And I always joke. You know.
- 20:55You're pulling up a chair to the virtual bar, sweating sharp
- 20:58breakdowns with with with my friends, which are you guys out
- 21:01there listening so. If you want to help me grow.
- 21:03This pod, hopefully you value the insights.
- 21:05Please could you do something? Very simple, very easy.
- 21:07Just give this podcast a five star review.
- 21:09On Spotify or iTunes. Leave a nice comment.
- 21:12If you feel so inclined, recommend the pod to a.
- 21:14Friend click the follow. Button retweet the.
- 21:17Pod when I put it out on Twitter every afternoon.
- 21:19I would very much appreciate any.
- 21:21Or all of those. Things.
- 21:22Next. If you enjoy this.
- 21:24Style of sports betting breakdown data.
- 21:26Driven sharp contrarian betting. Focusing on line movement, bets,
- 21:29split system matches, taking a. Contrarian approach.
- 21:32If this style. Of betting has appealed to you,
- 21:34you want to learn. More about data-driven betting
- 21:36or. Maybe you have someone in your
- 21:37life who could use. Some data-driven tips, or maybe
- 21:40you just. Want to make my day?
- 21:41Let me know you appreciate the insights.
- 21:43If any of that is the. Case please think about going to
- 21:45Amazon.com and typing in the Everything Guide to Sports
- 21:49Betting or the. NFL sharp betting playbook.
- 21:52Those are my 2. Books that I've written.
- 21:53Very proud of both. Great insights that make a
- 21:56great. Gift if someone's birthday is
- 21:57coming up or Father's Day but. If you want.
- 22:00To grab one or both of those books, make sure you bring them
- 22:02the sports book. I'll sign them for you and I'll
- 22:05buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat the draft and and
- 22:07some baseball and we'll we'll sweat the Bruins tonight.
- 22:10As a fan, I got no. I got no.
- 22:11Dog in the fight? From a a betting.
- 22:13Perspective on the Bruins. But we're coming back to Boston
- 22:16tied. One to one, let's go bees
- 22:18tonight. It's a big night.
- 22:19It's a big Thursday night next. If you if you want to learn more
- 22:23about rhythm or juice reel, go down the download.
- 22:26The rhythm and juice. Reel app if you haven't done it
- 22:27yet. Rhythm Great for their AI backed
- 22:29models and predictions for game bets and player props.
- 22:32Remember we got the Rhythm rundown tonight?
- 22:336:00 to 7:00 PM Eastern Time and then Juice Reel.
- 22:36So many great. Features of Juice Reel.
- 22:38You'll get the robo. Jackson best bet picks the
- 22:40Sharp. Mush indicators.
- 22:41The arbitrage plays the shop. For the best line futures and if
- 22:44you want to let me know you. Appreciate the insights.
- 22:47And this pod is free, of course. Well, guess what you can
- 22:50support. The pod by signing up to get the
- 22:52all. Systems go best bet picks.
- 22:54For the very low. Price of $4.99.
- 22:57Cents a week 5. Bucks a week, you get all the
- 22:59place, so hopefully that'll get you some good numbers.
- 23:02Early and we can beat some closing.
- 23:03Lines. But again, you can.
- 23:05Always support the pod by getting those best bets from
- 23:08Juice Reel. So download rhythm, download
- 23:09juice reel. Give them both.
- 23:11A five star review in the App Store.
- 23:13Next, do you have a live odds page?
- 23:15Well, if you don't. Have one, you need one.
- 23:17It's such an. Important and critical tool and
- 23:19the live odds page. It lets you track the market
- 23:21that's the most. Important thing so.
- 23:23Again, looking at what did the line open at?
- 23:25Where is it now? How does it move pull up the
- 23:27line history? Find the best price.
- 23:29Find the book that's giving you the best.
- 23:30Number or as always, just tracking the market, seeing
- 23:35which direction the line is breaking.
- 23:36You can do all of that with the odds logic.
- 23:39Live odds. Page so if you ever want to give
- 23:41it a shot, I got a special. Link that you can use, it'll
- 23:44give. You A7.
- 23:44Day free trial. And also give you 50% off your
- 23:47first month of service. That link is oddslogic.com/josh
- 23:54123. So that about does it for
- 23:57episode 490. Eight of the all.
- 23:59Systems go sports betting pod as always guys two final thoughts
- 24:03one. Whether I see you at the Borgata
- 24:05in Atlantic? City Twin.
- 24:06River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire
- 24:08Foxwoods. Or Mohegan Sun down in
- 24:10Connecticut. At the.
- 24:11Encore in Boston Plainridge. Park casino MGM Springfield or
- 24:14the Nash and my neck of the woods on the border of
- 24:16Massachusetts and New Hampshire out in the desert.
- 24:19Where the true grinders get down.
- 24:20Where Billy? Walter sends his number runners
- 24:22with. Lowest juice possible.
- 24:23At the South point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping
- 24:26in the stadium. Swimming pool when you.
- 24:28Catch a big ticket at Serco. Wherever it may be.
- 24:30We're going to see. Each other from.
- 24:31Across the Sports book. Floor, we're going to knock,
- 24:34knock, tap. On the janitor's closet, say
- 24:36hey. Can I borrow your broom?
- 24:37I'm going to do a little Fred Astaire dance.
- 24:39Because we swept last night. You'll.
- 24:40Love to see it. Cubs Braves D Backs.
- 24:44Show me those tickets guys. First one's on me next.
- 24:46One's on you. Will sweat the Bruins tonight.
- 24:48Bruins, MLB, the draft, hopefully.
- 24:51It'll be one hell of a night. So as always, guys coming off a
- 24:54three and O or an O and three, A1 and two or A2.
- 24:56And one a winning. Night a losing night a hot
- 24:58streak. A cold streak we.
- 25:00Just got to stick with it. We can never get too high or too
- 25:02low, never get cocky and arrogant when we're cashing.
- 25:04Tickets and things are. Going great, never get down in
- 25:07the dumps and get down on ourselves when things aren't
- 25:09going our way. We just got.
- 25:10To stay even keeled. And continue to play the system
- 25:13matches and be fearless but discipline with our bankroll.
- 25:15Management as an old. Friend of mine.
- 25:17Used to call it GWB grinders with blinders.
- 25:20So with that being said. As always guys.
- 25:24We're looking for those system plays, games that fit our model.
- 25:26Against the public, with the house, with the pros.
- 25:28Flat bet Avoid. Parlays and get that CLV.
- 25:31If we can do that, we're going to be.
- 25:32Successful sports bettors. So everyone has a great Thirsty
- 25:36Thursday. Enjoy the draft tonight, guys.
- 25:38Let's get. Some winners in baseball.
- 25:40I'll see you at 6:00 PM. For the rhythm rundown, and I'll
- 25:43be right back at it tomorrow for episode. 499.
- 25:46Of the all systems Go sports betting podcast powered by
- 25:50rhythm. Good luck everybody and dear
- 25:52God, David Bailey go second overall.
- 25:54Good luck.