Transcript

Lipstick On A Pig. · ANGLES.

0:01
SPEAKER_00: Lipstick on a Pig, my weekly market review, September 27th, 2026.
0:09
SPEAKER_00: Geopolitics was very much on the market's mind after record electoral successes
0:14
SPEAKER_00: for extremist parties in weekend German regional elections and attendees gathering
0:19
SPEAKER_00: in New York for the annual United Nations General Assembly,
0:24
SPEAKER_00: but notably not the leaders of China, Russia, India, or Palestine.
0:30
SPEAKER_00: While the Iran war rumbles endlessly in the background.
0:34
SPEAKER_00: However,
0:35
SPEAKER_00: China's Premier Xi Jinping skipping the UNGA to meet with Trump
0:40
SPEAKER_00: in Washington was set to be the week's pivotal event,
0:43
SPEAKER_00: covering issues from tariffs to technology related to the relationship between
0:48
SPEAKER_00: the world's two largest economies.
0:51
SPEAKER_00: Wall Street was in a very cheerful mood on Monday after the oil price dipped back
0:55
SPEAKER_00: below $100 and interest rates fell sharply with
0:59
SPEAKER_00: the important 10-year Treasury rate briefly dipping back below 5% again
1:04
SPEAKER_00: as Federal Reserve officials began to publicly explain their decision
1:08
SPEAKER_00: the previous week to raise the Fed funds rate.
1:12
SPEAKER_00: The indexes roared higher and closed within touching distance of new all-time highs,
1:17
SPEAKER_00: particularly the NASDAQ 100,
1:19
SPEAKER_00: which was strongly boosted by surges in Meta, Intel,
1:23
SPEAKER_00: and AMD,
1:24
SPEAKER_00: as AI enthusiasm returned with a vengeance,
1:28
SPEAKER_00: with Trump inviting all his tech bro CEO buddies to Thursday's lavish dinner
1:33
SPEAKER_00: with Xi, along with senior executives from the big banks.
1:38
SPEAKER_00: Energy prices continued to drift lower on Tuesday morning with flickering hopes
1:43
SPEAKER_00: of some kind of move towards a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war resulting
1:47
SPEAKER_00: from meetings on the sidelines of the UNGA.
1:51
SPEAKER_00: The exception was diesel,
1:53
SPEAKER_00: potentially the most damaging price victim of the current war,
1:57
SPEAKER_00: which moved to new record highs.
2:00
SPEAKER_00: Trump's rambling,
2:02
SPEAKER_00: belligerent,
2:02
SPEAKER_00: and conceited address to UN delegates,
2:05
SPEAKER_00: which included a threat to annihilate Iran,
2:10
SPEAKER_00: was met with stony silence,
2:12
SPEAKER_00: eye rolls,
2:13
SPEAKER_00: and some walkouts,
2:15
SPEAKER_00: but contained nothing of value to markets other perhaps than his bizarre idea
2:20
SPEAKER_00: to change the name of artificial intelligence to superintelligence.
2:27
SPEAKER_00: Stocks and bonds shrugged off the speech as irrelevant,
2:29
SPEAKER_00: and it was essentially momentum from Monday's big jump that pushed
2:33
SPEAKER_00: the indexes upwards, and the NASDAQ 100 closed at another new all-time record high.
2:41
SPEAKER_00: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD,
2:46
SPEAKER_00: released its outlook for 2026 and 2027,
2:50
SPEAKER_00: with the US blowing away the rest of the world in projected economic growth.
2:57
SPEAKER_00: Tuesday's giddy optimism gave way to negativity,
3:00
SPEAKER_00: however,
3:01
SPEAKER_00: on Wednesday,
3:03
SPEAKER_00: as markets digested the complete lack of anything constructive in Trump's speech,
3:07
SPEAKER_00: a defiant response at the UN from the Iranian president,
3:12
SPEAKER_00: rapidly waning expectations of anything meaningful coming out of the Trump-G summit,
3:18
SPEAKER_00: and the potential domestic and international fallout from the growing risk that
3:23
SPEAKER_00: the US may soon cease exports of diesel.
3:28
SPEAKER_00: After taking a short break,
3:29
SPEAKER_00: interest rates aggressively resumed their upward march as traders doubled down
3:34
SPEAKER_00: on bets of another Fed funds rate increase next month and are repricing
3:40
SPEAKER_00: the entire curve higher.
3:43
SPEAKER_00: The key five-year Treasury rate broke through 5% for the first time since 2007,
3:48
SPEAKER_00: and the 30-year reached its highest level since 2004, closing in on 5.5%.
3:57
SPEAKER_00: Stock indexes dropped precipitously from their record levels on what was
4:01
SPEAKER_00: a pretty ugly day all round for financial markets.
4:06
SPEAKER_00: The bond route deepened overnight,
4:08
SPEAKER_00: with interest rates around the world continuing to soar,
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SPEAKER_00: driven by rampant bond vigilantes.
4:15
SPEAKER_00: The US and China agreed to kick the can down the road again
4:19
SPEAKER_00: by extending their trade truce until January 10th,
4:22
SPEAKER_00: but AI competition,
4:24
SPEAKER_00: the war in Iran, Taiwan,
4:26
SPEAKER_00: and critical minerals were still on the table to be discussed at
4:30
SPEAKER_00: the Trump-Xi summit.
4:32
SPEAKER_00: Stocks recovered from a rocky start on Thursday to close a muted session unchanged,
4:38
SPEAKER_00: with negotiators apparently exploring some kind of a phased deal to reopen
4:42
SPEAKER_00: the Strait of Hormuz.
4:45
SPEAKER_00: As expected,
4:46
SPEAKER_00: little of consequence came from the Trump G extravaganza,
4:49
SPEAKER_00: despite the pomp and pageantry.
4:52
SPEAKER_00: But of course,
4:52
SPEAKER_00: that didn't stop both sides making desperate but ineffective PR attempts to try
4:58
SPEAKER_00: and put lipstick on a pig for their respective domestic audiences.
5:05
SPEAKER_00: Shorter-term interest rates and oil prices did stabilize somewhat on Friday,
5:09
SPEAKER_00: and the stock indexes got back some of their mojo,
5:13
SPEAKER_00: closing moderately higher for the session, led again by tech names.
5:18
SPEAKER_00: For the week,
5:19
SPEAKER_00: the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 large cap indexes
5:23
SPEAKER_00: and international stocks all finished nicely in the green,
5:26
SPEAKER_00: but US small caps were lower.
5:29
SPEAKER_00: It's still very much a bull market in stocks,
5:33
SPEAKER_00: But the bears are starting to find a few things to feast on,
5:37
SPEAKER_00: particularly in the chaotic state of the bond market.