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Quick Take: Super Bowl LX Preview · Height Differential

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It is Super Bowl Sunday and the match up that we were all
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expecting at the beginning of the season.
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The Seahawks and the Patriots, everybody's on.
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I think reasonably so. Everybody thinks that the
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Seahawks are likely to win. If the Patriots were to win this
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game, what do you what do you think has to happen?
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For the Patriots to win, I mean, it's going to be it's going to
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be because of their defense. I mean, can they, you know,
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we've seen we talked about Sam Darnold kind of, you know,
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choking a little bit in some big games and he proved us wrong in
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the NFC Championship. But if the defense of the the
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Patriots and how good they've been all season, they can force
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some turnovers to have Sam Darnold throw some interceptions
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like he's been prone to do in the past, kind of make him
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revert back to the old Sam Darnold.
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Then I think they have a great chance to win.
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But it's going to be it's going to be the defense for the
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Patriots. I think that that gets it done
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for them if they if they do win. I think 100% Sam Darnold has to
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have a couple mistakes, make a couple turnovers for for the
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Patriots to have a chance. And you know, they got to get
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pressure because when he has a clean pocket, he's one of the
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best quarterbacks in the NFL. When he's pressured, he is not.
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And and the numbers are there to show it.
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He's third in EPA per pass play when he has a clean pocket.
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When did he doesn't have a clean pocket?
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That drops all the way down to 28th, which is around Tua and
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Mike Jones. It's the biggest discrepancy in
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the NFL and the Patriots have produced pressure this year.
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And but the Seahawks are pretty good at not allowing it.
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But like I said, if the Patriots can get pressure on Darnold,
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force him into making some mistakes, I think that really it
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is where the the Patriots are are going to have a chance and
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they the Patriots have to move the ball better than they have
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in the playoffs. They have their offense has been
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pretty much nothing throughout the playoffs and a lot of that
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it is because of Drake May. He in the regular season he was
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1-2 and the MVP rate was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL
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and was worthy to be in that discussion.
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But his play in their first 3 postseason games has have been
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about as bad as anybody over the last 10 years.
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And so he's going to have to figure it out.
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He's going to have to make some place.
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I think Drake May's going to have to make some place with his
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feet too, because the Seahawks aren't going to allow, it's
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going to be hard for the Patriots, I think, to run
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between tackles just because they're that good defensively
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against the run game. That's kind of what their MO is,
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so even if Drake May is pressured, he's going to have to
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find ways to to make some plays with his legs, which I think
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that's an underrated aspect of his game.
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I agree. No, I agree.
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You know, we talked you're talking about Drake May just not
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being great and just going back to that Houston game when I mean
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that combined the two teams had a bazillion turnovers.
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But, you know, he had his share in that game.
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And I don't know if you just discount his play because of the
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snow in in Denver and, you know, the second-half in Denver and
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how difficult that that situation was.
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But yeah, he's got to be better. And if he's not better, I guess
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that Seattle defense, it's going to be a long day.
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But I mean, that Seattle's been the best team all year in the to
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me in the NFL. That's why they're favored.
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And I think that that's probably why they probably will come out
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on top. But as I mentioned, it's going
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to be the Patriots defense. The Patriots defense can concern
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Sam Darnold back in the old Sam Darnold.
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Then they they have a chance, but a slim chance.
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Well, and, and another thing too, like everybody talks about
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the Seahawks defense, but we've seen a blueprint from the Rams
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to kind of show you that you can move the ball against them.
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It is not impossible. But the Patriots don't have the
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weapons that the Rams have. They don't have the the Puka
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Nakuas on or the the veteran Matt Stafford leading the
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charge. On the other side, they've got a
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second year quarterback and Stefan Diggs I guess is their
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best receiver. But I think the the Rams offense
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is just more high-powered, more weapons, and you've got Sean
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McVay calling the plays on that on that side.
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I don't disagree with that. And and you're like the Rams
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had. They moved the ball methodically
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at times, but they also had some explosive plays.
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I don't think the Patriots have a chance to methodically move
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the ball down the field against the Seahawks.
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They're not going to be able to dough on 78910 minute drives and
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have 15 plays. I they're going to have to rely
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on explosives. They've they've been they've had
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a lot of success with explosives throughout the regular season.
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They ranked first an explosive pass play rate and they were
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great with with run explosives as well throughout the regular
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season. So they're going to have to get
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some big gains to really, I mean, that's going to be the
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only way that I think they score offensively.
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If they're able to bust off like a 4050 yard gain, get the
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scoring range and and punch it in for a touchdown because I
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just don't see them moving it methodically like the Rams did.
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No, I would agree with that, yeah.
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But a stat that I looked up before this game that I was
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unaware of, we, we knew that the Patriots open the season with
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the 20 to 13 loss to the Raiders.
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Yes. And the Seahawks also lost on
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opening week. Yeah, they lost 17 to 13 to the
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Seahawks, both at home. No, the Seahawks.
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Then the Seahawks lost, and the Seahawks lose to the Niners.
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Was the Niners. Yeah, did it.
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What did I say? You said the Seahawks lost the
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Seahawks. Well, you can't lose it.
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Yourself. I was, I was concerned.
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I was concerned there. Yeah, they lost it in.
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Niners squad scrimmage. They Hawks to the Niners.
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Well I get they might have done that too, but they lost to the
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Niners in week 1. This is the first time ever in
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Super Bowl history that the two teams both lost in the opening
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week of the season. The Super Bowl history, Wow,
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that's interesting. That is interesting.
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The Patriots 17 and three all three of their losses are less
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than 7 less than by less than 7 points.
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But the Patriots did benefit from the easiest streak to
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schedule since the 1999 Rams and the Seahawks. 16 and three.
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And their three losses are a combined by a combined 9 points.
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Lost by 4. Like we said in opening week,
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there were the rest of the way. The rest of the way they are 16
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and two, and those two losses were by a combined five points.
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Yeah, and they they probably played in the best division in
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football. You know, you're going up
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against the the Rams twice and then the third time in the
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playoffs and then you're going up against the Niners, you know,
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multiple times every season. So they're tested.
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I mean, they've played the good teams, they've come out on top
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and and like you said, they're 16 and three or whatever they
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were. So I mean, they're tested.
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They played the good competition and they've they beat them.
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And we talked about they need to get pressure on Darnold and
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that's a big part of the Patriots game plan to have A to
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have a chance. Conversely, the Patriots have
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really struggled with protecting Drake May in the postseason and
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and that could play a big role. Drake May has been sacked 10
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times, which is the second most of any quarterback in postseason
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history this century. I guess postseason this century.
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Do you know the you know the all time leader and sacks in a
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single postseason is? I mean, it does it.
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It's got to be the the Super Bowl Cincinnati Bengals team, is
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it not? Joe Burrow 19 * 19 times in 2021
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like. I feel like 19 times happened in
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the Titans game alone. It was 9 in that game.
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It felt like more. It felt like more.
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But I I think it kind of just shows you how difficult it is to
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win a Super Bowl when you do struggle to protect your
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quarterback as much as New England is is doing so right
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now. Look how close the Bengals got
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despite all of that. But then what was the very last
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play with the Chase running free down the sideline?
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Yeah, and a fitting way to end that season and into that game.
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They're getting, they're getting there.
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He's getting sacked on like 16% of his drop backs right now,
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which is a big reason why their offense has struggled as much as
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it has in these three games. It's it's really remarkable that
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they're in the Super Bowl with the lack of production that
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their their offenses put together.
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I mean, yeah, they're in the just in the postseason.
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They're averaging, what, 278 yards and only 18 points a game
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in their three games? And look, look, I get it.
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I get it. Like the game, The AFC
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championship game was a little different.
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Yeah. Because of the elements.
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But but like I told you last week, like yeah, it was a lot of
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the elements, but there was also 2 1/2 quarters.
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Yeah, they mean yeah, they could have.
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They could have done the damage early and they didn't.
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Where they, yeah, they had opportunity to move the
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football. I mean, they did play.
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So you talk about the elements and the defenses of the the
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defenses that they faced along the way are probably the top two
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in the league. When you think about the Houston
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Texans and the Denver Broncos, I mean, those are no easy feats to
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go up against those two. So I feel like the quality of
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defense probably has a little bit something to do with why
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they've struggled. But you're facing another really
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quality defense in the in the in the Seattle Seahawks.
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So it's not going to get any easier.
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So they do need to figure something out, but.
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No, it's, it's not like you're yeah, you're not dropping off
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the the defense is not dropping off here.
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You're playing The Jets or the Bengals.
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But it's also it's the Patriots. And it just seems like they have
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this magic when they get in the postseason and you've got an
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opportunity to win a Super Bowl. You just have to play 48
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minutes. If they can, if they can turn
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Sam Darnold into what he was last year in the NFC, went in
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the first round when they were in one seed and make him turn
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the ball over, It's it could flip really quick.
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Yeah. I mean, I just.
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Sam Darnold, he has a game this year, this season where he's
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thrown 4 picks in a game like it's It can happen.
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Look, and they don't, I don't think they'd beat the Rams if he
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doesn't play as well as he did. Like we no, we can talk about
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the, the their defense all the time and it's a great defense,
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but they don't beat the Rams if not for Sam Darnold.
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No, I think that was probably the best game of his career. 3
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touchdowns, no picks and on that stage against the team where he
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struggled this year both times. So now I think that was probably
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the best he's played. So you know that's he's got to
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have a lot of confidence coming into the Super Bowl just based
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on his last outing. So you get a confidence.
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Sam Darnold, maybe, I don't know, maybe he's a little too
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confident and starts to then be trying to throw some balls he
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shouldn't be throwing. I, I think he knows better what
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what his role is with with that defense.
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I just, it's got to be the fact that he'll make mistakes if they
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do get pressure on him and he starts to get rattled a little
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bit. If he's got a clean pocket, he's
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going to do what he did against the Rams.
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He's going to pick them apart. And I I think this will be,
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look, we talked about it. Neither one of these teams have
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gotten blown out all year. So, so how does that vote for
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this game? Even though I think the Seahawks
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are a better team than the Patriots, neither one of these
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teams have. They've visited every game
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they've played. What's what's the what was the
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opening line? Was it 4 and?
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A half 4 1/2 in the the overrun is 45 1/2.
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Yeah, I don't see either team winning really by a lot more
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than that. I mean, I think it's going to be
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a one score game. But then don't you just think
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the Seahawks are better though? They, I mean, they are better.
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Yes, they are better, but you can't discount the the defense
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that the Patriots play, the deep, the the Patriots have a
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really quality defense. It's I don't know, I don't, I
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just, I, I just don't see. I mean, I don't like you said,
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neither team has been has been blown out all year.
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You keep this, you keep counting out the Patriots like, oh, you
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know, like how they keep doing this and and is the the magic
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going to run out? But it's just what they do.
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And Mike Rabel's on that sideline.
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He's a veteran coach. He's he's been in in some big
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games. I don't know.
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I just, I don't think it'll be a four and a half.
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I think is probably about right. I don't think it'll be really
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any more than that. Could see this being a field
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goal game. I don't know what.
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What's So what you got? What's your score?
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Score prediction. We're going to go 2024.
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I can see it'd be like a 2420. OK, I like I was going to go 24
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as the winning score, but I'm going lower on the other end.
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I think it 2410. Two touchdown game yeah I.
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I, I, I would take this, I would maybe go 2414, but I do think
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the Seahawks are going to cover. And that could be that could be
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a special teams touchdown in there, you don't know, maybe a
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well. Yeah, I mean and stuff like
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that. Just something crazy could
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happen. Yeah, if if they can get a play
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with from their special teams, if their defence can get a pick
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6 or a fumble like it just that changes everything.
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But if it's just if both team plays the way that they've been
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playing, I I think the Seahawks win by 10 points.
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OK. Are you excited for it?
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Because we talked about last week we ranked our worst
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quarterback matchups of all time.
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You had there was it was Gannon and Brad Johnson at 1, Carrie
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Collins and Trent Dilfer as as as #2 We said maybe this one is
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third. Are are you getting more excited
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for this game or you still kind of feeling the same about it?
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It's kind of feeling the same about it.
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You know, it's probably one of the more least exciting
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matchups. You just don't have, you know,
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that star power at quarterback yet.
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I mean, Drake may could get there at some point.
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I mean Jackson Smith and jig buzz, He's he's a star in this
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league. So I mean he'll be interesting
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to watch. But when this is to me, it's
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going to be a defensive game, defense versus defense.
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We talked about this last week. I'm I'm more on the offensive
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side of things. I like to see more points.
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You like the defensive slugfest? The one O the one nothing
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baseball type games? That's it.
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I enjoy both they're. So you like you like the boring?
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These are these are two defensive teams.
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You like the boring football, I like the exciting football.
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So this is probably, you're more excited probably than I am for
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this one, but. Well.
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We've seen and we've seen the Seahawks and the Patriots in the
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Super Bowl multiple times. My thing, Neil, like we've done
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our top 10s all year. Yeah and we've had the Seahawks
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one or two the entire year yeah. How many times was the Patriots
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even in our top ten? It took a while until towards
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the end of the season yeah and to me that's why I've got them
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covering like I just I think they've benefited from a a
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weaker schedule. I the they haven't moved the
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ball. They figured out ways to win in
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the in the postseason. They've made it to the Super
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Bowl. Give them credit.
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Like I said they made a lot of moves in the offseason to
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improve that defense. I give them credit for that.
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I just I haven't wasn't a believer in the Broncos or the
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Patriots the whole way and I'm not changing my mind now when
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it's a team that we've both had one or two the whole yeah.
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So it's fair enough Seahawks to cover and the under.
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What is the? What was the over under?
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45 1/2. Yeah, I think the under probably
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plays in that one as well. Yeah, I would agree.
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Yeah, and then you can bet on all the the Gatorade colors and
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how long the anthems going to start and all that goofy stuff.
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So we had talked before we got on the 1st Super Bowl that you
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remember. Yeah.
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You were born, what, 86? 7. 87 Yes what's What is the
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first Super Bowl you remember? Yeah, I, I remember the Dallas
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Cowboys in the 90s, you know, with, with Troy Aikman, Emmett
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Smith, Michael Irvin in in, in that group when they dominated
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the Buffalo Bills. I was kind of my first memory of
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it. I just remember Leon Lett of 52
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to 17, you know, running back a fumble and Don Beebe chasing
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them down at the the 2 yard line and knocking it through the end
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zone for a touchback. But I, I mean, I just remember
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the dominance of the Cowboys in that bills game, the first Bills
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game, and then they dominated again a second time.
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You know, so I remember the dominance of the Cowboys and IA
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100% remember that San Francisco San Diego game in 95 when the
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Niners just absolutely pummeled the Chargers.
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So those those right around there that that Dallas team and
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that San Francisco team, those were my earliest memories of the
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Super Bowl. Did you ever watch the the
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documentary on the Cowboys that I told you to watch?
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I've watched like half of it. I still need to.
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You need to watch it, yeah. I do, I have one above it.
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But yeah, like early 90s, I was already a Bengals fan, but they
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were terrible and the Cowboys were fun to watch.
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I remember cheering on the Cowboys in in those Super Bowls.
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Yeah, when the Bengals weren't in it.
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But my first Super Bowl, I was born before you.
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I was born Christmas Eve of 1980, the Bengals in the 1989
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Super Bowl against the 49ers. I remember I was what had just
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turned 8 years old, having signs and saying Jerry Rice's rice
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pudding. Thought I was cool, creative
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coming up with that stuff. Watched it at grandma and
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grandpa's house. My grandpa was a big reason why
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I was a Bengals fan and that was his last Super Bowl.
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He passed away the next year so but no that that's the first one
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I remember. I remember exactly where
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watching it. I remember like I don't remember
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all the details of the game. I do remember Joe Montana
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driving down to to win the game and throwing the touchdown pass
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to John Taylor and ripping ripping out this 8 year old's
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heart and the rest of hude nation.
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So is this, is this why you've got the 1988 AFC Champion?
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You sure? We're we're repping baby.
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But yes, no, like, how big of a nerd are you?
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You as a 8 year old, writing signs for just you and your
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parents and your grandparents, just hanging out in the living
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room watching the Super Bowl. Yeah, you're a pretty big nerd.
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But you, you're 8 years old, you've got a team that's in the
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Super Bowl. You're like, this is awesome.
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This is how it's going to be. Then you never go back until
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you're 40. Yeah.
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Don't win a playoff game. Pretty much.
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They won a one more playoff game after that.
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They beat the Raiders a couple of years after that.
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But yeah, Jerry Rice's rice pudding.
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Clubber.