Latest / Start Me Up with Kimberley A. Johnson / Start Me Up: Rachel Bitecofer

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Start Me Up: Rachel Bitecofer · Start Me Up with Kimberley A. Johnson

0:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
0:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to the Start Me Up Hotcast part of MSW Media and the sexy liberal podcast network.
0:23
[SPEAKER_01]: On your host Kimberly Johnson in B.C.
0:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Today my returning guest is National Political Analyst Rachel Bedakoffer, she's the author of Head of War at Hearts and the co-host of this is America on the Cycle Substack.
0:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Rachel's really smart and sometimes she scares me, but she always tells the truth.
0:40
[SPEAKER_01]: so we have a lot to talk about.
0:42
[SPEAKER_01]: But before we get into it, the Start Me Up podcast is independent, listen or fund it, and woman run.
0:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Visit patreon.com slash start me up to see the variety of tiers offered, including the option to get a bonus what's up episode just for patrons every Tuesday.
0:57
[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of like my online journal where I get a little more personal and I talk about whatever's on my mind.
1:02
[SPEAKER_01]: There's also an ad free tier with a much shorter intro.
1:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Just visit patreon.com slash start me up.
1:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, please enjoy my conversation with Rachel Bedakoffer.
1:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome back to the show, Rachel.
1:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, thanks for having me back, Kim.
1:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Sometimes you scare the shit out of me.
1:17
[SPEAKER_01]: You know that.
1:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I scare you because I love you cam.
1:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I know.
1:23
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's true.
1:24
[SPEAKER_01]: You're a truth teller.
1:26
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't hold back.
1:28
[SPEAKER_01]: And just, I mean, my audience already knows this because I've probably said it fifty times.
1:32
[SPEAKER_01]: But at the beginning of the, well, after the election, I should say, you know, you were like, that's it.
1:38
[SPEAKER_01]: There's not going to be any more fair elections or, you know, any elections and you were, you were kind of freaking out or at least that's what I got from your posts.
1:47
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, my mother was saying the same thing.
1:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I was feeling that way.
1:50
[SPEAKER_01]: I had to rock in my stomach for six weeks.
1:53
[SPEAKER_01]: I just, I mean, it was just fucking awful.
1:55
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, I have said this like I said so many times on my show, but at about a month ago, you were very optimistic about the midterms and that really helped me.
2:05
[SPEAKER_01]: It was like, oh, she thinks we are gonna probably, or we might, when the midterms and we might, it might be a bloodbath for them.
2:11
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's what I want you to first start out with because
2:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, you know, there's questions right now.
2:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Are we even going to have midterms?
2:19
[SPEAKER_01]: And there are people saying, I don't even want to put that out there, or yes, we're going to have mid.
2:24
[SPEAKER_01]: What are you thinking?
2:26
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, the other half of that tweet, I do believe specified if we can get them certified.
2:30
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
2:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
2:32
[SPEAKER_02]: So like, you know, when we say, are we going to have elections?
2:36
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's important and it's good to lay out what, at least what I mean when I say that.
2:40
[SPEAKER_02]: All right, what, I think there's going to be elections.
2:43
[SPEAKER_02]: That was, there's going to be candidates, there's going to be money, all the things that we come to expect with elections.
2:49
[SPEAKER_02]: My question is really about certification of those elections, right?
2:54
[SPEAKER_02]: And although they can gum us up pretty good, like a lot of the places they control, they also, you know, are likely, in my opinion, to claim there was fraud or something and not certify.
3:07
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
3:08
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.
3:08
[SPEAKER_02]: So for me, the test child or the test case has always been this upcoming Virginia election in Virginia in the fall.
3:16
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a gubernatorial election.
3:17
[SPEAKER_02]: There's also one in Jersey, Mikey Cheryl will definitely be winning.
3:21
[SPEAKER_02]: But Virginia is a bell weather state.
3:24
[SPEAKER_02]: It has been against the party that won the presidency the year before.
3:28
[SPEAKER_02]: almost every cycle, the one exception was in twenty thirteen for Barack Obama.
3:33
[SPEAKER_02]: And that was actually a because of a fluke, a third party libertarian, siphoned off some of the Republican votes.
3:40
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's how we ended up with the Democrat in twenty thirteen in Virginia.
3:43
[SPEAKER_02]: So Virginia tends to go against the
3:46
[SPEAKER_02]: party that just won the White House.
3:48
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, my expectation is Abigail Stannberger is going to be winning Virginia Ralph Northamran in similar, you know, conditions in June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June, June,
4:10
[SPEAKER_02]: are beginning to find themselves caught up in some of this crazy stuff for these done, right?
4:14
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, people are starting, I think to kind of trickle down, and especially these terrorists, I mean, the terrorists had gone in effect, where would have seen a massive impact on the economy.
4:26
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, most of it has been stayed or delayed, and of course, there's taco, this idea that the markets are handicapping them, and they
4:33
[SPEAKER_02]: certainly did on Monday when he announced he was going to do tariffs on Canada.
4:37
[SPEAKER_02]: And our Mexico in the year thirty percent the markets didn't even respond the next day.
4:41
[SPEAKER_02]: So like no one believes in many more about the tariffs, right?
4:45
[SPEAKER_02]: But the issue is okay.
4:49
[SPEAKER_02]: So we have this conditions where, you know, Virginia is going to go.
4:52
[SPEAKER_02]: Virginia's got a governor that's
4:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Republican, Glenn Lincoln, sweater vest, Glenn.
4:58
[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, how much money around or like lies are they going to do?
5:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Am I?
5:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Are they going to certify it?
5:03
[SPEAKER_02]: But then pretend it was all legal.
5:06
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like the value of those lies are so you have to understand like the reason people want to kill us is because they've been told these terrible terrible lies.
5:15
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, I'm less concerned about winning the election as I am because of the midterm effect and because of the fundamentals being on our side now than I am about can we get it certified?
5:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.
5:27
[SPEAKER_02]: You know what I mean?
5:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, totally.
5:29
[SPEAKER_01]: That makes sense.
5:31
[SPEAKER_01]: But obviously now we would only need three house seats.
5:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, let's say forget about certification for the moment.
5:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's just go with voting.
5:41
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you think like the house seems to me like that's just going to go and you predicted that it would be close to what we saw in twenty eighteen, but what about the Senate?
5:50
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, the Senate map is tougher.
5:52
[SPEAKER_02]: We cannot win without making inroads again with working class people.
5:57
[SPEAKER_02]: And when we say working class, when you hear that on TV, what you should hear is education, because it's really not about working class.
6:04
[SPEAKER_02]: It's about college education versus non college education.
6:08
[SPEAKER_02]: And here's the thing, there's a lot less college educated.
6:10
[SPEAKER_02]: We're let more of college, less college educated people than there are non college educated.
6:16
[SPEAKER_02]: And a lot of the publications I've done since the election have shown
6:20
[SPEAKER_02]: how, you know, it's not just this one time phenomenon, they've been shipping off our working class coalition over the last two decades with grievance and culture war politics, right?
6:29
[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, if we don't change that, it's hard to get optimistic at any point about the Senate, but it's also hard to imagine.
6:36
[SPEAKER_02]: And I don't know, I haven't gone done my analysis yet.
6:39
[SPEAKER_02]: I haven't put this out yet, so I haven't studied it yet.
6:42
[SPEAKER_02]: But I don't know, so I don't know exactly which seats are up and how much, you know, they're going to be glass cycle was brutal for Democrats in the Senate.
6:50
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's why I told people success was measured by how much we managed to blunt the midterm effect in the house.
6:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Because I did win, but it was very modest, right?
6:59
[SPEAKER_02]: And the Senate was really tough with Montana and Ohio, both being, you know, lean red states now and try to hold on to democratic senators against a midterm effect was going to be tough.
7:11
[SPEAKER_02]: So it really depends on what states are up, who's defending them.
7:14
[SPEAKER_02]: And of course, for me, the strategy, like I look at that Susan Collins race in Maine, which I know for sure is up the cycle.
7:21
[SPEAKER_02]: For what I hear, Democrats are even having a hard time fighting some with the challenger, which is just mind blowing, right?
7:27
[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, it's the same story different days.
7:29
[SPEAKER_02]: It's years, like I said, if you want to beat Susan Collins, you have to attack her reputation as a moderate.
7:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Right?
7:35
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's the same situation now.
7:36
[SPEAKER_02]: If we're going to win in somebody who states like Maine, where it could definitely vote for a Democrat, it's only going to happen.
7:43
[SPEAKER_02]: If the candidates there, the only people who have money to distribute messaging to voters, because voters are not going to read the news or watch the news.
7:50
[SPEAKER_02]: We talk about, I talk about that all the time in my political book about how people who are listening to this show are wonderful people.
7:57
[SPEAKER_02]: We're all wonderful people, but we're not normal people.
8:02
[SPEAKER_02]: normal people don't listen to any political news at all.
8:06
[SPEAKER_02]: They don't know about any of the stuff that they may be alligator alcatraz will make its way to them.
8:12
[SPEAKER_02]: Something like that, but by and large, everything that Trump has done, the crazy cabinet full of clowns and weirdos running our national security, the national security scandals, all of that that voters will never hear about unless our campaigns focus on what Republicans have done.
8:29
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah.
8:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so now what I want to ask you, I mean, I don't, we don't know what England is going to do regarding this third party thing.
8:40
[SPEAKER_01]: If he does this, if he puts money into this, I saw Rick Wilson do an open letter to him after he first threatened to do this back in June.
8:48
[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, Rick's advice was, you know, third party's always fail.
8:53
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is basically a way to say fuck you to Donald Trump and the Republicans.
8:57
[SPEAKER_01]: And here's how you should do it.
8:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And he basically pointed out certain states, just don't worry about the entire.
9:03
[SPEAKER_01]: So do you think that if this does go down,
9:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you see it really hurting the Republicans in the midterms?
9:10
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, if we could get them to do what we wanted to do, and Rick and I are like, you know, we're two peas in a pot.
9:16
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm doing the same stuff he's doing.
9:18
[SPEAKER_02]: I didn't write our open letter to Elon, but I definitely suggested Europe protects the Senate.
9:24
[SPEAKER_02]: How that unique situation down there could it, you know, establish the validity of the America Party.
9:31
[SPEAKER_02]: The America Party guys, who's its constituency?
9:34
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to be one, a metal, you exactly who.
9:36
[SPEAKER_02]: Libertarian burrows or independence are almost always white dudes.
9:40
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
9:41
[SPEAKER_02]: So like who, who won the election for Donald Trump?
9:44
[SPEAKER_02]: But the end of the day is those margins on white dudes, right?
9:47
[SPEAKER_02]: So any party that's going to compete and have a prime constituency of Libertarian, but they're burrows is good for Democrats.
9:54
[SPEAKER_02]: And we should try to get it on every swing state ballot we can get.
9:57
[SPEAKER_02]: So here's hope in Elon continues down there at line.
10:00
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's
10:01
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, one day he's, you know, doing tweeting about Epstein in the next minute.
10:07
[SPEAKER_02]: He's just often spaced off.
10:08
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think he's fighting his own inner demons trying to not tank his own brain by coming after Trump, but it's very hard for him because they're both narcissists.
10:17
[SPEAKER_02]: So let's, you know, anything you can do to encourage Elon and third party formation of America party is a good thing.
10:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, before I, I'm going to talk about England, but before I do, okay, this is one of my concerns, but the Democratic Party, you know, they just literally walked out on the, on the nomination hearing.
10:36
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, is it bovie?
10:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that how you say his name?
10:38
[SPEAKER_01]: I think so.
10:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
10:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, anyway, so that's good.
10:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm glad they're, they're doing it.
10:42
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and that's like, that's progress, right?
10:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.
10:44
[SPEAKER_01]: It is absolutely, you know, I've wanted, we've wanted to see more unity, we've wanted to see more kind of might and I think they're kind of rising to that occasion right now and I hope that they stay.
10:53
[SPEAKER_01]: But up until now, a lot of us, excuse me, have been upset because, you know, we've got the strongly worded letters from Chuck Schumer and just, you know, our friends across the aisle bullshit that's not happening anymore.
11:05
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
11:07
[SPEAKER_01]: The thing that I'm, the way that I'm looking at this is, you know, maybe, you know, you mentioned that normal people aren't paying attention to politics, and we know this.
11:16
[SPEAKER_01]: However, maybe, you know, the alligator archetypes, and, and I don't, you know, I just like to call it a death count, but regardless, if there are people that are experiencing family members or something like that, you know, there's all these people that's kind of who don't vote.
11:28
[SPEAKER_01]: So there might be, I don't know, a small percentage, and that's what we need, a small percentage of them to go, oh, wait a minute, you know, my relative or my mom or whoever just got hold off into this death camp.
11:41
[SPEAKER_01]: So that might wake some people up.
11:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if they're gonna be welcome up by the big beautiful bill, because a lot of that stuff doesn't even come into effect until after the midterms, which is obviously very strategic.
11:52
[SPEAKER_01]: But there is so much, you know, with your,
11:56
[SPEAKER_01]: prediction that we could really win big in the midterms.
11:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the Democrats are writing on the cocktails of Donald Trump's cruelty and the fact that we have no guard rules right now.
12:07
[SPEAKER_01]: But then that could set us up.
12:11
[SPEAKER_01]: If the Democrats don't get it together by
12:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And then after, I think that we're facing, you know, twenty twenty eight, I think we could still write on the co-tales.
12:21
[SPEAKER_01]: But after that, I don't know.
12:23
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm just wondering, do you, are you seeing in the Democratic Party right now?
12:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, obviously we just talked about them walking out.
12:30
[SPEAKER_01]: But do you see them strengthening, you know, what, what advice do you have for them?
12:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And are they, and are they listening to you?
12:39
[SPEAKER_02]: And here's the thing is like people need to understand.
12:42
[SPEAKER_02]: We've got some severe disadvantage against Republicans.
12:46
[SPEAKER_02]: Number one, Democrats are decent people.
12:49
[SPEAKER_02]: That's a big problem when you're trying to get them to respond to a propaganda machine with propaganda because they don't want to do it.
12:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Then there's also like, you know, like,
13:01
[SPEAKER_02]: hesitancy because I think like, oh, if I do this, then we're publicans are going to get mad at me, right?
13:07
[SPEAKER_02]: They're not voting for you.
13:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Go look at the voting data.
13:11
[SPEAKER_02]: There's nothing more clear in data than the partisan effect on vote choice.
13:16
[SPEAKER_02]: And we can see that in the twenty twenty four NES polls.
13:19
[SPEAKER_02]: We can see it in the two thousand points.
13:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Like it gets into our twenty twenty polls wherever it's always
13:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Part is in ship dictates vote choice for ninety percent of voters in that.
13:29
[SPEAKER_02]: So obviously picking up a lot of independence in that.
13:31
[SPEAKER_02]: There's about a person that are true pure independence and they are vibes.
13:37
[SPEAKER_02]: They're going to vote for the party out of power almost all the time.
13:39
[SPEAKER_02]: They're going to break that way, right?
13:41
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, it depends on on on on which part of the Democratic Party you're talking about.
13:46
[SPEAKER_02]: The DNC is on team reform.
13:49
[SPEAKER_02]: I know Martin the new chair is a big fan of the book.
13:51
[SPEAKER_02]: He's implementing negative hardship strategy where he can and a lot of the state parties have been working with are also on on the board, but at the end of the day, what matters are the swing rice campaigns.
14:03
[SPEAKER_02]: And in twenty twenty four, they did not run negative partisanship strategy.
14:06
[SPEAKER_02]: And even though I, you know, begged and pleaded with them and told them, you know, the folly of the traditional strategy, I was unable to convince any of them to bring me on and help me let them, you know, give them a strategy.
14:19
[SPEAKER_02]: It's viable against JD dance.
14:20
[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, here's the thing too.
14:23
[SPEAKER_02]: JD dance.
14:23
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's look at that.
14:24
[SPEAKER_02]: He ran in twenty twenty two against Tim Ryan.
14:28
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, and I mean, he gets a tap for vice president and what what do we learn all this terrible stuff he's humped in couches, you know, he's on the radio talking about his like, you know, man kingdom where the women serve him as a hair or whatever, right?
14:43
[SPEAKER_02]: Crazy crazy.
14:44
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
14:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.
14:47
[SPEAKER_02]: And here's the thing, the Tim Ryan campaign.
14:50
[SPEAKER_02]: They didn't run any of that.
14:51
[SPEAKER_02]: They never told Ohio any of that.
14:53
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's, it's now practiced.
14:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.
14:57
[SPEAKER_02]: So like, you know, the answer is, you know, yes, some people are listening.
15:01
[SPEAKER_02]: No, not enough people are listening.
15:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, I'm still fighting.
15:05
[SPEAKER_02]: I intend to fight till I die.
15:07
[SPEAKER_02]: But you know, they're still, like the DNC, like all the reform that's happening within the DNC is invisible.
15:13
[SPEAKER_02]: You guys don't see it, right?
15:14
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, it's until that narrative element starts to get fixed.
15:20
[SPEAKER_02]: We're just on a real big disadvantage.
15:23
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's why I've been telling Democrats, look, I get it, man.
15:26
[SPEAKER_02]: You don't want to look dumb.
15:27
[SPEAKER_02]: So like when I post something like, hey, Republicans are going to steal your retirement money.
15:32
[SPEAKER_02]: from social security, right?
15:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, there's going to be some liberal progressive nerd on my comments.
15:39
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, that's not how social security actually works, right?
15:42
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you know what?
15:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, I do know that.
15:46
[SPEAKER_02]: And I'm willing for you to think I'm stupid if it means I have a good message, okay?
15:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.
15:51
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't get, I'm not, you know, I don't love to lose sleep at night because, you know, blue shower, twenty-one thought that like,
15:59
[SPEAKER_02]: I was being not clear about how social security works, right?
16:04
[SPEAKER_02]: We respond to those people.
16:07
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's, and you were talking about Rick and where reason why we're soulmates, right?
16:12
[SPEAKER_02]: Rick knows that you can't look at any of that.
16:15
[SPEAKER_02]: Don't think about it, don't acknowledge it, don't worry about it.
16:18
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a non-representative sample.
16:20
[SPEAKER_02]: The people who are commenting to you on social media are like not representative at all of Africa.
16:28
[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, so you have to be willing to be mean and you have to be willing to sound to talk in hyperbole, which by extension makes you sound stupid, right?
16:37
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's what I'm working on now, was trying to get Democrats to, you know, the hearsling thing though is, and it is funny, right?
16:44
[SPEAKER_02]: It's funny, but it's sad.
16:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
16:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Because they're dying.
16:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
16:48
[SPEAKER_02]: And then it's like, Oh, you got to hold on to this norm and this idea that like if you're somehow aggressive, then swing voters won't like you.
16:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
16:56
[SPEAKER_02]: And explain to me how JD fans and Ron DeSantis have had so much success.
17:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
17:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Because they don't do any of the stuff that Democrats think they need to do to win swing voters.
17:05
[SPEAKER_02]: They're doing the opposite.
17:06
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.
17:07
[SPEAKER_02]: And they're winning.
17:08
[SPEAKER_02]: So like, you know, this whole theory, like, you know, and this comes a lot from the Democratic messaging consultant, you know,
17:15
[SPEAKER_02]: is, oh, you can't, we can't do the things Republicans do.
17:19
[SPEAKER_02]: Our voters are too smart, they're a bull.
17:22
[SPEAKER_02]: We are more empathetic.
17:24
[SPEAKER_02]: True.
17:24
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
17:25
[SPEAKER_02]: We are more collective thinking than average people.
17:29
[SPEAKER_02]: There's all kinds of shit where I out on the bell curve on, but we are still human beings.
17:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.
17:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
17:35
[SPEAKER_02]: And we are still going to respond a thousand percent stronger to something we're losing than something we're gaining.
17:41
[SPEAKER_02]: basic human psychology.
17:43
[SPEAKER_02]: And we are not, we are running.
17:44
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like our election campaigns.
17:46
[SPEAKER_02]: They run with the current, the psychological current of the, of the actual American behavior.
17:52
[SPEAKER_02]: And we're swimming against it always, always.
17:55
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's what I'm still working on trying to change.
17:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, now we get to talk about Epstein.
18:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh my god, okay, so here's the thing now obviously everybody's all excited because
18:14
[SPEAKER_01]: It looks like Mac is going to split.
18:16
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'm on YouTube all day and I'm seeing David Pakman and Keith Edwards and all these people in there.
18:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Every five minutes or some new video about how this is hurting Trump.
18:24
[SPEAKER_01]: But then I just saw something from, of course, what's her name?
18:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Did I put her name?
18:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll get her name in a minute because I can't find it right now.
18:32
[SPEAKER_01]: But, oh, just Piper.
18:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so she said, I'm hearing mostly that Trump's space is, oh, no, that's what I'm saying.
18:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Just Piper, I'm sorry, I'm reading my notes as if that was the headline.
18:44
[SPEAKER_01]: But, so just Piper says, she wrote something on Substet called the Epstein files, fallout will not touch him.
18:51
[SPEAKER_01]: He told his cult members that he would release the Epstein files only to reverse it and tell them to stop talking about it.
18:57
[SPEAKER_01]: He also called them stupid.
18:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and that but she goes, here's the deal.
19:01
[SPEAKER_01]: They'll stop talking about it.
19:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Give it a month.
19:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Now this was a concern of mine.
19:05
[SPEAKER_01]: And I mean, I know Joe Walsh and you retweeted Joe Walsh who said, you know, the mega crowd that he talks to all the time is confused that he's never seen anything like this.
19:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, but I'm starting to see some of these right wing talking heads already marching stuff back.
19:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Fox News is doing it.
19:21
[SPEAKER_01]: I saw Megan Kelly give herself an out, and I'm not sure who the other right-wing person was, but the giving themselves an out was something like, okay, it's either that you just flat out lied to us or, and I don't remember what the aura is, but it was something along the lines of a way out for them.
19:37
[SPEAKER_01]: They could say, oh, well, it's a way out.
19:39
[SPEAKER_01]: So where do you see this Epstein thing going in the long run?
19:42
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, number one, this is the most powerful issue Democrats could ever have.
19:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, yeah, perfect world.
19:47
[SPEAKER_02]: Every elected them would be hammering them on social media about Epstein Epstein Epstein.
19:51
[SPEAKER_02]: Of course, at the Democrats probably Eric's well well, and Dan Goldman and Jared Muscoids do, but nobody else.
19:59
[SPEAKER_02]: which is part of our problem, right?
20:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Because we're not making any noise.
20:02
[SPEAKER_02]: But the Epstein thing, you cannot possibly suggest that Trump lied and betrayed Madda enough.
20:09
[SPEAKER_02]: I've been using my account a lot to add as much fuel as I can to the modifier about it because it is first the first time since January six.
20:18
[SPEAKER_02]: Now in January six, the initial months after that before they did their hike off and turned it into a tour and made the insurrectionist into heroes.
20:28
[SPEAKER_02]: He took a big dip in Republican opinion, but that came from the Centers for Republicans, right?
20:34
[SPEAKER_02]: This time it's the mag of faithful.
20:35
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, here's the thing.
20:37
[SPEAKER_02]: The Epstein files is not just about Epstein's thought.
20:40
[SPEAKER_02]: This is why that the QAn and movement and Trump have been pushing since the sixteenth that Democrats are connected in Hollywood, and it's this big pedophile ring that we secretly have.
20:51
[SPEAKER_02]: And we were pedos.
20:52
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's good.
20:53
[SPEAKER_02]: If you've studied mag, you get called a pedo probably ten times a day, right?
20:58
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
20:58
[SPEAKER_02]: And so it's not just like, here's a promise, like, oh, I'm going to do this.
21:02
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to get no tax for tips.
21:03
[SPEAKER_02]: And I didn't give it to you, right?
21:05
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not a policy fail.
21:07
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a, the thing is that the core being of the MABA ideology.
21:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
21:14
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's why we're even seeing them choke to swallow it.
21:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Now that said, and I said in my own show on the cycle on this is America, which people should check out if they have and just on history when I put out or Tuesday, when I put out that episode that I expect it will take them a while to swallow this turd, but they will swallow it in those parts, right?
21:35
[SPEAKER_02]: But you know, we'll find out if the medical election has a million of true believers, but there's another hangar on
21:42
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
21:43
[SPEAKER_02]: Like the podcast grows and the Joe Rogan's blah blah blah.
21:47
[SPEAKER_02]: And if he loses even then, like it would be significant, right?
21:50
[SPEAKER_02]: So where I'm looking and where I told people to be looking is in the party approval right now Democrats are pulling at twenty percent approval.
22:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
22:01
[SPEAKER_02]: That's a five alarm fire.
22:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
22:03
[SPEAKER_02]: And the reason why we're at five or twenty percent folks is because unlike unusual, the, you know, the independence and the Republicans obviously hate us.
22:11
[SPEAKER_02]: The independence will create us, you know, based on vibes.
22:14
[SPEAKER_02]: But the usually a party approval rating is buffeted by like near universal support of them that's own partisans.
22:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, that's not happening right now because fifty percent of us are like, yo dude, like room is burning.
22:28
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
22:28
[SPEAKER_02]: There's the fire engine.
22:29
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.
22:31
[SPEAKER_02]: And now if you have to be in a really bad spot to have partisan tell pollsters, they're met at their own party.
22:37
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's where the Democratic Party is.
22:39
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, we're really in a spot right now, we're, you know, Democrats are very unhappy and they're willing to tell pollsters about it.
22:48
[SPEAKER_02]: Will Republicans get that if we could see even five or eight percent decline and Republican approval, then we'll know Epstein matters.
22:57
[SPEAKER_02]: But until and unless we see
22:59
[SPEAKER_02]: We can only see that if we were running the kind of stuff that they do against us, we should be doing that.
23:05
[SPEAKER_02]: Every night show should be about Epstein, every talk show should be talking about it, every elected should be tweeting about it, but we don't have that system and that's why we have a comms asymmetry.
23:19
[SPEAKER_01]: No, okay, let's just say they swallow that turd.
23:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And then this kind of just quites down.
23:25
[SPEAKER_01]: And then we're back to our normal non-normal, which is bombs dropping and terror threatening and, you know, disappearing people and whatever else you have some sleep to just torture us.
23:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Come be midterms if the base just accepts.
23:45
[SPEAKER_01]: that there's no there, there's like no there there or whatever with abstine, doesn't even matter when it comes to that vote.
23:53
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm meaning the base.
23:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I know that there's going to be some independence that will stick and some independence that will maybe, maybe they're going to be like, I don't know about that.
24:03
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, but what do you see happening with abstine and the election?
24:10
[SPEAKER_02]: I think Republicans are very keen to establish an autocracy in this country.
24:16
[SPEAKER_02]: And for everyone person that might be turned off by him failing on the Epstein.
24:21
[SPEAKER_02]: There's ten people that he could do.
24:23
[SPEAKER_02]: He could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get away with it, right?
24:26
[SPEAKER_02]: So like, you know, in other words, do I think this is going to break as cold?
24:31
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know.
24:31
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I'm not in, it's mass psychosis is such a hard thing to study.
24:35
[SPEAKER_02]: It's rare.
24:36
[SPEAKER_02]: We're living through one now, you know, ones that we've looked at in history, like what happens with Germany in the late thirties, like never ends well.
24:46
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, I'd like to think that like because it's a core, but he's basically telling them, telling them now that this is a Democrat hoax, okay?
24:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, right, this is like, it does not come from the Democrats here.
24:58
[SPEAKER_02]: He brought those influencers out to the White House and embarrassed the hell out of them with the Epstein file photo.
25:04
[SPEAKER_02]: right so like there's potential but like you know it's you know so far nothing has broken him and I think they're at the end of the day what might happen is we'll go along another couple of weeks but the first time something terrible happens we'll have to rally around trouble no matter what right that's my guess is what will happen yeah
25:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm totally there with you.
25:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I have just a couple more questions and I kind of want to bring up Gavin Newsome because within the Democratic Party, you know, there's some that just, I mean, I, I'm not so much of a fan of him personally, but I agree with what you just recently tweeted that he is the man for this moment.
25:43
[SPEAKER_01]: the way that he is handling fascism compared to how the Democratic Party is doing it.
25:48
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, there are people out there, voters out there who aren't happy with some of the comments he made, some of the people who he's invited on his podcast or whatever.
25:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, I've seen some of the big bigger names and I'm not going to mention anybody I don't want to.
26:03
[SPEAKER_01]: single anybody out, but they're just like, you know, no, we can't have him as the head of the party.
26:06
[SPEAKER_01]: We can't, he can't be the one in twenty twenty eight.
26:09
[SPEAKER_01]: But regardless of what happens in twenty twenty eight, I just like for you to talk about why he is so effective right now.
26:15
[SPEAKER_01]: What he's doing that the others aren't doing, that they should be, you know, maybe taking his cues.
26:21
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, first I'd just have to say I think it's ridiculous that people are focused on twenty twenty eight.
26:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
26:26
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, but guys, hello, okay, like we got bigger problems than your preferred nominee, right?
26:36
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, holy hell, Kim and you know, like what you look at, like he's the only one that's meeting the moment, him and Cory Booker.
26:43
[SPEAKER_02]: John Habie Pritzker and Illinois.
26:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
26:46
[SPEAKER_02]: Like those, I mean, I don't, I don't care about twenty twenty.
26:49
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm thinking about twenty twenty eight when I say this is the man for the moment.
26:53
[SPEAKER_02]: We got, got, that's like trying to rebuild your house.
26:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Why it's on fire.
26:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, right.
26:59
[SPEAKER_02]: So I would urge people to get out of this, like, you know, a typical, like in a typical America, but when we lived in twenty years ago or ten years ago, even maybe it'd be proper to think about Newsom's activities in context of twenty twenty eight.
27:13
[SPEAKER_02]: But to me, I'm looking at the moment right now.
27:16
[SPEAKER_02]: And right now, we have an American citizen that got arrested at that farm raid.
27:21
[SPEAKER_02]: He told them he was a citizen.
27:23
[SPEAKER_02]: He had documents that showed he was a citizen.
27:25
[SPEAKER_02]: He told them he was a vet.
27:26
[SPEAKER_02]: He spent three days in a cell dude.
27:29
[SPEAKER_02]: Three days in a cell with little food crammed in there or the bunch of other people even though they knew he was a citizen the whole time like that is the fire right like so to me when I when I'm talking about what do some's doing do some put out okay Greg Abbott you control this red state you're doing all this crazy unethical and you know
27:48
[SPEAKER_02]: weird stuff.
27:49
[SPEAKER_02]: I can do the same out here.
27:50
[SPEAKER_02]: You can do gerrymandered Texas mid district fine.
27:53
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, gerrymandered California.
27:56
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, exactly.
27:56
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
27:57
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm in God.
27:58
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I would think that people would be dying for that kind of.
28:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.
28:02
[SPEAKER_02]: I know.
28:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.
28:03
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I mean, I stop.
28:04
[SPEAKER_02]: I just don't know why people are focused on democratic primary.
28:07
[SPEAKER_02]: And so like that in the New York mayor's stuff like I don't care to.
28:11
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
28:12
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't care.
28:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Look, look what's happening around you.
28:15
[SPEAKER_02]: Abundance.
28:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Abundance.
28:17
[SPEAKER_02]: We're talking about abundance.
28:18
[SPEAKER_02]: Are you kidding me?
28:19
[SPEAKER_02]: If you're so tone deaf to me and I wonder if it feels tone deaf to other people.
28:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Interesting.
28:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, all right, the last question I'm going to ask, and I think you're a good person to ask.
28:30
[SPEAKER_01]: This is obviously, you know, people are frightened, they're frightened, they're angry, and all of the negative feelings that we can have.
28:38
[SPEAKER_01]: But we're also resisting, we're showing up, we're going to the marches and protesting.
28:41
[SPEAKER_01]: So with that in mind, obviously, there's only so much the Democratic Party can do right now, legislatively.
28:48
[SPEAKER_01]: It's all through messaging.
28:49
[SPEAKER_01]: It's all through what they're saying and doing.
28:52
[SPEAKER_01]: But what can everyday people do?
28:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Especially people who feel so afraid and they're like, I don't know what to do.
28:58
[SPEAKER_02]: What can everyday people are going to be our critical, right?
29:01
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, do you have people that don't read the news, okay?
29:05
[SPEAKER_02]: Do what you can to bring them up to speed on some of this stuff?
29:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
29:09
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, you have to you have to bring them that information.
29:12
[SPEAKER_02]: Know what else is going to do it.
29:15
[SPEAKER_02]: You want people to be afraid like you are because like here's the thing that's that pin in the stomach.
29:20
[SPEAKER_02]: I go to bed with every night wake up with every morning and frankly because of a vivid dreamer.
29:24
[SPEAKER_02]: It often is with me all night.
29:27
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, like that thing is not shared.
29:29
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
29:30
[SPEAKER_02]: America, when you can walk around the mall or go to a baseball game or whatever you're doing, like the other people there predominantly do not have that knot in their stomach, okay?
29:42
[SPEAKER_02]: They don't, and we need to spread the knot.
29:44
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, within that, that is micro-relational.
29:48
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, everybody on on this, who's listening to this, they have some network.
29:52
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, mine's big, right?
29:53
[SPEAKER_02]: It's two hundred thousand people.
29:55
[SPEAKER_02]: But even if it's a thousand people or five hundred people or two hundred people, I'm an influencer.
30:00
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm influencing those people, right?
30:02
[SPEAKER_02]: And you gotta be using your work comms, using your own messaging to do the things that I'm talking about.
30:08
[SPEAKER_02]: Be willing to look stupid and tell people, they're coming to steal your social security money.
30:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Even if it's not technically how social security?
30:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
30:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Because they will find a way to do it.
30:18
[SPEAKER_01]: They'll find a way.
30:19
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, we can.
30:21
[SPEAKER_02]: That's great level.
30:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you know what I mean?
30:23
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, like we put out these wonky policy statements, you know, it's crazy.
30:29
[SPEAKER_02]: Instead of just saying what is the, what is the policy going to do?
30:32
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to kill people.
30:33
[SPEAKER_02]: Got it.
30:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, people need to know that they specifically designed it so that this big brutal bill is mostly effective, and going into effect after the midterms, which is obviously strategic because they don't want people realizing they're going to lose their fucking healthcare right before the election.
30:53
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think we have to tell them, exactly.
30:55
[SPEAKER_02]: And here's the thing.
30:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Obama cared and go in in twenty ten.
30:59
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, most of it didn't even begin to twenty fourteen.
31:02
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
31:02
[SPEAKER_02]: And yet they wedges that issue all through twenty ten and one on you know we we're just so we're so it's like that show that you know the HBO show that they had for a little while about the news guy.
31:12
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know but it opens up with him you know if you're so smart why do you lose so always.
31:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, right.
31:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.
31:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.
31:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.
31:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I know in the first.
31:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't think about it.
31:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
31:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
31:22
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the newsroom.
31:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
31:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
31:23
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the newsroom.
31:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
31:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
31:25
[SPEAKER_02]: That's true.
31:26
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
31:26
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a great thing.
31:27
[SPEAKER_02]: The Democratic strategy says if you're so blank smart, why do you lose a blank always?
31:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
31:33
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's where that is at the heart of it.
31:36
[SPEAKER_02]: What I'm trying to do is tell people nobody knows who Joni Ernst is.
31:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
31:42
[SPEAKER_02]: They don't like go if we go and pull that nationally right now if you'd have maybe like
31:47
[SPEAKER_02]: you know, twenty percent name ID in the country in the country, okay?
31:51
[SPEAKER_02]: And so like if you think about how do I win an election worth it?
31:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, we got to persuade people with this policy and that progressive vision and you know, like especially if you listen to before or left, oh, it's got to be all this populism stuff.
32:03
[SPEAKER_02]: No, dude, you got to go in there and tell people what's coming up.
32:07
[SPEAKER_02]: What's going to happen to them?
32:08
[SPEAKER_02]: Or what is happening to this?
32:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes.
32:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes.
32:11
[SPEAKER_02]: And you don't tell them they will know.
32:13
[SPEAKER_02]: So they get three years down the line and finally get their cancellation letter and they're going to open it and they're going to think to themselves.
32:20
[SPEAKER_02]: But I'm not an illegal, right?
32:23
[SPEAKER_02]: Exactly.
32:24
[SPEAKER_02]: Exactly.
32:24
[SPEAKER_02]: They did not wait for Obama care to come and do things and then run on it.
32:30
[SPEAKER_02]: We need to obviously, the Big Ugly Bill is the major wedge.
32:35
[SPEAKER_02]: We should be wedging the hell out of that.
32:37
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's conditionally in Virginia.
32:39
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, think of how the budget
32:42
[SPEAKER_02]: those stuff destroyed families in Virginia and Maryland.
32:46
[SPEAKER_02]: Lots of them.
32:47
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, and these are, you know, and Matt is my government bureaucrats.
32:51
[SPEAKER_02]: They collect a check and don't do nothing.
32:53
[SPEAKER_02]: I can tell you this, if you ever apply for a government job, these are top tier people that beat out a lot of other competitive people that have really hard jobs.
33:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
33:02
[SPEAKER_02]: You know what I mean?
33:03
[SPEAKER_02]: And like, you know, we're going to just let them get away with it.
33:06
[SPEAKER_02]: We're not going to mention it.
33:07
[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to talk about how we're going to be good on education and healthcare.
33:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Like it's like ninety two or something.
33:12
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
33:14
[SPEAKER_02]: So like, you know, part of it is is about spreading that not.
33:17
[SPEAKER_02]: So anything that you guys, if you're listening to my voice now, do have capability to spread that not spread.
33:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, spread it spread it.
33:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
33:26
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm going to let you go.
33:27
[SPEAKER_01]: But before I do, I want you to kind of touch on your book.
33:31
[SPEAKER_01]: and then tell everybody where you are on the internet.
33:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, the book hit them where it hurts, have a save democracy by beating Republicans around games available.
33:39
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, any way you want it, audible, booksellers, Amazon, whatever you want to use.
33:43
[SPEAKER_02]: And I've really strongly urge people to read it.
33:46
[SPEAKER_02]: It will lay out exactly what I'm telling you about the voters.
33:50
[SPEAKER_02]: knowledge, pool, and what they know and how elections actually work and how human behavior actually works and how to communicate in a way that's effective for that.
33:59
[SPEAKER_02]: But I also urge people to go to the cycle on sub-stack.
34:02
[SPEAKER_02]: I put out written analysis.
34:03
[SPEAKER_02]: You can't find anywhere else, not from Maddy Y, not from Meet Silver, not from Dave Wasserman or Harry Benton.
34:10
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's, you know, I'm there five days a week.
34:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Awesome.
34:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Alright Rachel, well as usual, it's awesome talking to you even though you can be scary because you tell the truth and we need the truth.
34:21
[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, I do appreciate your messaging and I'm a hundred percent behind everything you want to do and I think the Democrats should be listening to you more.
34:29
[SPEAKER_01]: So, um, I mean, you know what they say Kim, right?
34:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Truth will set you free.
34:34
[SPEAKER_01]: There you go.
34:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you so much for being on the show and I'm sure we'll chat again.
34:40
[SPEAKER_02]: Thanks for having me again.
34:42
[SPEAKER_02]: Take care, bye bye.