Latest / Beta Finch - Eli Lilly - LLY - EN / Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis

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Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis · Beta Finch - Eli Lilly - LLY - EN

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown. Today, we're
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  Speaker 1: digging into Eli Lilly's second quarter 2026 results. And Jordan,
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  Speaker 1: I'll just say it up front, this was a big one.
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  Speaker 2: Big is an understatement. But before we get into the numbers,
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  Speaker 2: our standard reminder, this podcast is AI-generated content for educational
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  Speaker 2: and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered
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  Speaker 2: investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a
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  Speaker 2: qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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  Speaker 1: Right. With that said, let's talk numbers. Lilly's revenue grew
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  Speaker 1: 48% year over year in second quarter. Their key products
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  Speaker 1: alone added almost $ 6. 8 billion. And get this, oncology, immunology,
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  Speaker 1: and neuroscience combined grew 121% versus last year.
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  Speaker 2: That's a company firing on basically every cylinder. And in
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  Speaker 2: Cretan franchise, Zepbound and Manjaro is still the engine room. Combined,
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  Speaker 2: those two brought in $ 14. 9 billion in the quarter, contributing $ 6. 3
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  Speaker 2: billion of the total growth.
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  Speaker 1: Gross margin ticked up to 86.3%. Non-GAAP EPS came in
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  Speaker 1: at $ 8. 38, though that includes a $ 3. 03 hit from acquired
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  Speaker 1: R & D charges, so the underlying number is even stronger.
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  Speaker 1: And naturally, they raised full-year guidance, revenue now expected between
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  Speaker 1: $ 85 and $ 87 billion.
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  Speaker 2: Which, by the way, is up $ 3 billion at the
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  Speaker 2: low end and $ 2 billion at the high end for
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  Speaker 2: prior guidance. That's not a small tweak. That's a company
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  Speaker 2: that's genuinely outperforming its own expectations.
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  Speaker 1: Let's talk geography for a second, because the international story
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  Speaker 1: here is wild. China revenue grew 93% in constant currency.
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  Speaker 1: Rest of world, think Latin America, Asia, grew 136%. Lilly's
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  Speaker 1: international and Cretan market share is now around 55% globally.
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  Speaker 2: And this is the piece I think investors sometimes underweight.
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  Speaker 2: Manjaro's global rollout is still in relatively early innings in
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  Speaker 2: a lot of these markets. Management basically said future growth
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  Speaker 2: outside the U.S. is going to come from market penetration,
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  Speaker 2: not just new country launches, since most of the big
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  Speaker 2: launch wave already happened last year.
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  Speaker 1: Which actually ties into one of the more interesting analyst
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  Speaker 1: questions on the call. Someone pushed back on guidance, basically asking, wait,
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  Speaker 1: doesn't this guide imply deceleration versus second quarter? And CFO
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  Speaker 1: Lucas Montarse had a pretty candid answer.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, he pointed to a few real factors. There were
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  Speaker 2: some one-time favorable adjustments to rebate and discount estimates this
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  Speaker 2: quarter that won't repeat. Last year's back half had a
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  Speaker 2: huge bolus of new market Manjaro launches that's now lapped,
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  Speaker 2: and there's normal seasonality. European summer holidays hit third quarter,
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  Speaker 2: and diabetes has its own seasonal pattern in fourth quarter.
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  Speaker 2: So it's less conservative sandbagging, and more the comp gets harder.
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  Speaker 1: Fair enough. Now, let's talk about the newer story here, Foundeo,
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  Speaker 1: their oral GLP-1. The U.S. launch has been a bit
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  Speaker 1: of a slow burn, but management said they're now seeing
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  Speaker 1: real inflection. Prescriber count went from 8,000 last quarter to 36,000 now,
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  Speaker 1: and the last week of July nearly doubled monthly volume.
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  Speaker 2: The Medicare GLP-1 bridge program is a big deal too.
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  Speaker 2: It launched July 1st, and gives 20 million eligible Americans
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  Speaker 2: coverage for obesity GLP-1s at just $ 50 a month out
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  Speaker 2: of pocket. That's a 35% expansion in coverage overnight. Early
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  Speaker 2: signs are heavily skewed toward injectables, about 80%, but they're
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  Speaker 2: seeing real new patient uptake on both fronts.
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  Speaker 1: And internationally, the UAE numbers turned heads. $ 31 million in
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  Speaker 1: Foundeo sales in a single quarter, which is nearly half
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  Speaker 1: of total U.S. sales. One analyst flagged that as a
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  Speaker 1: signal of explosive potential once Foundeo rolls out more broadly,
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  Speaker 1: which management confirmed is coming mostly in 2027.
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  Speaker 2: On the pipeline side, Rita True Tide is the one
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  Speaker 2: to watch. Three positive phase three trials triumph, one, two,
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  Speaker 2: and three, showing weight loss approaching bariatric surgery levels at
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  Speaker 2: the top dose. They're targeting a U.S. submission in first
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  Speaker 2: quarter 2027. And there's an interesting subplot. Lilly's fighting to
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  Speaker 2: get it classified as a biologic, a BLA, rather than
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  Speaker 2: a small molecule, which has real regulatory and exclusivity implications.
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  Speaker 2: That's still being worked out with the FDA.
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  Speaker 1: And they didn't just sit still on M & A either.
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  Speaker 1: Lilly picked up Curivo, Limitech, and the vaccine company to
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  Speaker 1: build out an infectious disease vaccine platform. plus Atai Beckley
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  Speaker 1: for treatment-resistant depression. That surprised some analysts. Moving into psychiatry
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  Speaker 1: and vaccines wasn't necessarily expected.
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  Speaker 2: Management's framing was consistent, though. They're chasing big, unmet need
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  Speaker 2: wherever the science and the price make sense, not chasing
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  Speaker 2: a specific therapeutic trend. Jacob Van Narden, who heads business development,
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  Speaker 2: was pretty clear that this isn't a huge strategic pivot,
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  Speaker 2: just discipline applied opportunistically.
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  Speaker 1: There's also strong momentum beyond obesity worth flagging. J. Perka
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: in CLL grew 56%. In Lurio, grabbed over 50% share
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  Speaker 1: of new prescriptions in metastatic breast cancer in just two quarters.
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  Speaker 1: And Eblis sales more than doubled year over year in immunology.
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  Speaker 2: So stepping back, what does this mean for investors? The
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  Speaker 2: core and cretin franchise is still compounding at a remarkable rate,
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  Speaker 2: both domestically and internationally. Foundayo looks like it's finally turning
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  Speaker 2: the corner after a slower-than-hope start. In the pipeline, Rita
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  Speaker 2: True Tide, oncology readouts, the new vaccine and psychiatry bets,
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  Speaker 2: gives Lilly multiple growth vectors beyond the obesity story that's
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  Speaker 2: dominated headlines the last couple years.
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  Speaker 1: The things worth watching going forward. How the Rita True
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  Speaker 1: Tide BLA classification fight resolves. How fast Foundayo's international rollout
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  Speaker 1: scales in 2027. and whether that Medicare Bridge program keeps
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  Speaker 1: accelerating obesity treatment access the way early data suggests.
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  Speaker 2: Before we wrap, everything discussed is AI-generated analysis for educational purposes.
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  Speaker 2: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Please do your own
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  Speaker 2: due diligence.
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  Speaker 1: Lilly's got a lot of moving pieces right now, but
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  Speaker 1: the throughline is pretty clear, broad-based growth, an expanding pipeline,
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  Speaker 1: and a company that keeps raising the bar on its
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  Speaker 1: own guidance.
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  Speaker 2: We'll be watching the back half of the year closely,
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  Speaker 2: especially that Foundeo inflection and the Rita True Tide filing.
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  Speaker 2: Until next time, this has been Beta Finch. Thanks for listening,
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  Speaker 2: and we'll catch you on the next one.
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  Speaker 1: Take care, everyone.