Latest / Pod Save America / “Trump’s Recovery Summer.”

Transcript

“Trump’s Recovery Summer.” · Pod Save America

0:20
Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
0:22
Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
0:23
Speaker 1: On today's pod, Dan's conversation with political message guru Anat
0:26
Speaker 1: Shankar Osorio about 2020 campaign ads and the race class narrative.
0:31
Speaker 1: This is part of his Campaign Experts React series, which
0:34
Speaker 1: you can find, of course, on YouTube.com slash Crooked Media.
0:39
Speaker 1: Smash that subscribe button, right, Dan?
0:42
Speaker 2: That is correct. And you missed one thing, which is
0:44
Speaker 2: when you do Campaign Experts React, you need air quotes
0:46
Speaker 2: around experts.
0:47
Speaker 1: Yeah.
0:48
Speaker 2: It's a very important part.
0:50
Speaker 1: No one can see that I wasn't making them. Before that,
0:53
Speaker 1: we'll talk about today's jobs report, what it means for
0:55
Speaker 1: the 2020 campaign, and then we'll answer some of the
0:58
Speaker 1: questions you all sent in over the last few days.
1:01
Speaker 1: But first, check out Pod Save the World this week.
1:04
Speaker 1: Tommy and Ben unpack all the details about the explosive
1:06
Speaker 1: reports that Russia paid Taliban-linked militants to kill U.S. troops
1:09
Speaker 1: in Afghanistan. They try to understand why Putin would do this,
1:12
Speaker 1: how the U.S. should respond, and the latest on the
1:14
Speaker 1: intel with Congressman Adam Schiff. If you haven't already... Check
1:18
Speaker 1: out That's the Ticket, the new Pod Save America bonus
1:21
Speaker 1: series where Dan and Alyssa Mastromonaco break down the vice
1:23
Speaker 1: presidential selection process. Episode one is out now. New episodes
1:28
Speaker 1: drop on Fridays. Dan, what are you guys talking about
1:30
Speaker 1: this week?
1:31
Speaker 2: This week, we are talking about how Joe Biden's decision
1:35
Speaker 2: to select a woman, how that's going to affect the process.
1:37
Speaker 2: And we dig deep into the two previous times a
1:39
Speaker 2: woman has been on the ticket. Obviously, Sarah Palin in 2008,
1:43
Speaker 2: but also Geraldine Ferraro in 1984. and what lessons can
1:46
Speaker 2: be learned from how those played out. And Alyssa talks
1:49
Speaker 2: to Rebecca Traister about Joe Biden's selection and what challenges
1:54
Speaker 2: the eventual nominee will face in the media.
1:58
Speaker 1: Can't wait. Great. Check it out, guys, tomorrow, Friday. All right,
2:02
Speaker 1: let's get to the news. So neither of us knew
2:04
Speaker 1: it was Jobs Day, Dan, because we forgot tomorrow was
2:08
Speaker 1: a holiday and because we've lost all conception of time
2:11
Speaker 1: and space here in Donald Trump's pandemic-ridden hellscape. I was
2:18
Speaker 1: surprised this morning. Nonetheless, the Labor Department announced this morning
2:22
Speaker 1: that employers added 4.8 million jobs in June, and the
2:26
Speaker 1: unemployment rate fell to 11.1%. But we're still 15 million
2:31
Speaker 1: jobs short of where we were in February, and there
2:33
Speaker 1: are signs that the job situation is actually deteriorating now
2:36
Speaker 1: that a spike in COVID cases is causing businesses to
2:38
Speaker 1: close again. 1.4 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment
2:43
Speaker 1: benefits last week, and more than 800,000 filed for benefits
2:46
Speaker 1: under the federal pandemic unemployment assistance program. And the number
2:50
Speaker 1: of permanent job losses actually rose this month to 2.9 million. Dan,
2:56
Speaker 1: I'm sure you reacted to this news the same way
2:58
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump did this morning, who said the following
3:01
Speaker 1: at a brief press conference where he took no questions.
3:05
Speaker 1: It's all coming back. It's coming back faster, bigger, and
3:07
Speaker 1: better than we ever thought possible. These are the numbers.
3:11
Speaker 1: These are not numbers made up by me. These are numbers.
3:14
Speaker 1: Your thoughts.
3:17
Speaker 2: I mean, you, what I, I turned it on this morning.
3:20
Speaker 2: As you mentioned, we didn't know it was jobs day.
3:22
Speaker 2: The reason the jobs numbers are coming out on a
3:24
Speaker 2: Thursday instead of a Friday is because apparently tomorrow was
3:27
Speaker 2: a holiday, which I forgot. I forgot that there were
3:31
Speaker 2: distinctions between Working from home and just being at home.
3:34
Speaker 2: I didn't know holidays were still a thing. Um, which
3:37
Speaker 2: is weird cause I had huge plans for for the
3:38
Speaker 2: July weekend, uh, per usual, um, huge. So I watched
3:43
Speaker 2: him this morning at 6 30 AM our time, which
3:45
Speaker 2: is how I like to start all of my days.
3:47
Speaker 2: And I turned it on still a little bleary eyed, uh,
3:50
Speaker 2: from waking up too early again this morning. It felt
3:53
Speaker 2: almost like I was watching C-SPAN Classic. What he was
3:56
Speaker 2: saying was so disconnected from the reality. If you just
4:01
Speaker 2: were to parachute in and watch that press conference, you
4:03
Speaker 2: would not realize that we were in the middle of
4:04
Speaker 2: a historic recession. You would not realize that coronavirus cases
4:09
Speaker 2: were surging all across the country and businesses were shutting
4:13
Speaker 2: down again. And He clearly is trying to hang on
4:18
Speaker 2: to the thinnest read possible of good news. But I
4:21
Speaker 2: think that press conference is part of what has been
4:25
Speaker 2: a large part of his political problem over the last
4:27
Speaker 2: several months, which is he is not operating in the
4:29
Speaker 2: same reality in which the majority of Americans are.
4:33
Speaker 1: Not at all. I thought there was an interesting difference
4:36
Speaker 1: between the last month's jobs report when he came out
4:40
Speaker 1: and he sounded fairly triumphant. And I think some of
4:45
Speaker 1: the media coverage of last month's was like, oh, this
4:49
Speaker 1: is a surprise. Maybe the recovery is going to go
4:52
Speaker 1: faster than we thought. Maybe this is like a boon
4:55
Speaker 1: for Trump. And this month it felt a lot different,
4:58
Speaker 1: partly because we just hit 50,000 fucking cases per day yesterday,
5:04
Speaker 1: the highest spike ever. in COVID cases since the pandemic began,
5:09
Speaker 1: even at the height in March and April when New
5:13
Speaker 1: York was getting hit really hard. And as businesses start
5:17
Speaker 1: closing again because of what's happening across the South and
5:21
Speaker 1: the West, I think like Donald Trump, like you said,
5:24
Speaker 1: Donald Trump coming out there and saying, oh, these numbers
5:27
Speaker 1: are great. We're on our way. And at one point
5:29
Speaker 1: he said he talked about the virus. He said, we're
5:32
Speaker 1: getting it under control. It's got a life and we're
5:35
Speaker 1: putting out that life because that's a bad life we're
5:37
Speaker 1: talking about. Like he had nothing to fucking really say
5:42
Speaker 1: about the virus that is causing the recession, that is
5:46
Speaker 1: continuing to deepen the recession. And as you saw, like
5:51
Speaker 1: some of these, basically the job gains are all concentrated
5:54
Speaker 1: in some of these temporary layoffs that happen as sectors
5:58
Speaker 1: closed and then started opening back up again. But permanent
6:00
Speaker 1: job losses are started rising again. So it does not
6:04
Speaker 1: seem like this is anything for us to cheer about,
6:08
Speaker 1: for the country to cheer about, and certainly not anything
6:10
Speaker 1: for Donald Trump to brag about.
6:11
Speaker 2: What's also the reality is worse than these numbers, most likely.
6:15
Speaker 2: Because for folks who don't know, the jobs numbers derive
6:20
Speaker 2: from a survey that's done one week out of the month.
6:23
Speaker 2: And that week is usually in the middle of the month.
6:25
Speaker 2: So what the quote unquote survey week for this jobs
6:28
Speaker 2: report was more than two weeks ago. So it does
6:31
Speaker 2: not reflect what has been happening in Texas, Florida, California
6:36
Speaker 2: over the last seven to 10 days where businesses are
6:38
Speaker 2: starting to shut down again. And this, it just- Pretty
6:41
Speaker 2: big states. Yes, they are large states.
6:44
Speaker 1: Pretty big states that, yeah, that represent a large share
6:47
Speaker 1: of the economic activity in the country.
6:49
Speaker 2: Like, it's just, it is bad messaging for sure, right?
6:52
Speaker 2: Like if you, like, this is something that we obviously
6:54
Speaker 2: dealt with a lot in 2009, 2010, which is you-
6:57
Speaker 2: have to be very careful in how you tout something
7:00
Speaker 2: that sounds like good news when that good news is
7:02
Speaker 2: separated from what the vast majority of American families are
7:05
Speaker 2: feeling on a daily basis. It is very clear, anecdotally,
7:09
Speaker 2: based on research, that people are very scared for their health.
7:13
Speaker 2: and for their economic situation. And so when you go
7:15
Speaker 2: out and tout numbers like this, that people may see
7:18
Speaker 2: on the news, but not feel in their homes, that is,
7:22
Speaker 2: you know, you are, you're going to lose people in
7:23
Speaker 2: that way. And that's, that is, I think, Donald Trump
7:25
Speaker 2: has been totally off from the situation from the very
7:28
Speaker 2: beginning of this pandemic, and that continues.
7:32
Speaker 1: I was trying to imagine what Obama would have said
7:34
Speaker 1: if he was in this position, and these numbers came out,
7:37
Speaker 1: I mean, or any normal president, but just because we
7:39
Speaker 1: worked for him, like, he would have walked out and said,
7:41
Speaker 1: you know, yes, these numbers are are slightly better than expected,
7:45
Speaker 1: but none of us should be satisfied until every American
7:48
Speaker 1: has a job again. And these numbers only remind us
7:50
Speaker 1: that the most important thing we can do to get
7:52
Speaker 1: the economy moving again is to defeat this virus. Here's
7:56
Speaker 1: how we're going to do that. And these numbers remind
7:59
Speaker 1: us that we need more help for people who are
8:01
Speaker 1: hurting in this economy. That's why I want Congress to
8:03
Speaker 1: pass the heroes act and more stimulus and more, you know, like,
8:07
Speaker 1: You could come out and be determined about how these
8:09
Speaker 1: numbers make you want to fight harder to put people
8:12
Speaker 1: back to work and get the economy going again. And
8:15
Speaker 1: then at least you look to people like someone who
8:18
Speaker 1: is fighting for them and not someone who is on
8:20
Speaker 1: another fucking planet like Donald Trump seemed today.
8:24
Speaker 2: I mean, I think– I even think that Obama would
8:28
Speaker 2: handle it even less triumphantly than you suggested. It was
8:33
Speaker 2: not very triumphant at all because I– My guess is
8:36
Speaker 2: that Obama will look at numbers like this. He would
8:38
Speaker 2: know– and I know what his economic advisors say. They
8:40
Speaker 2: would say these numbers are not reflective of reality because
8:43
Speaker 2: of when the survey week is. And our big concern
8:45
Speaker 2: about this is it's going to give people, and particularly
8:48
Speaker 2: members of Congress, a reason to not pass the large
8:52
Speaker 2: economic recovery package we need. So I think he would
8:54
Speaker 2: actually come out and say these numbers are good, but
8:57
Speaker 2: we know what is happening as more and more businesses
9:00
Speaker 2: are doing– and states are doing the right thing to
9:01
Speaker 2: shut down. And that is why it is– he'd almost
9:04
Speaker 2: say– Ignore these numbers because, I mean, obviously, that's the
9:08
Speaker 2: right thing from a substantive point of view. But if
9:10
Speaker 2: you were playing chess, you would think the best way
9:16
Speaker 2: to improve the economy between now and November, when I,
9:20
Speaker 2: the president, will be up for re-election and therefore have
9:23
Speaker 2: the greatest individual interest in a good economy, would be
9:26
Speaker 2: to first get the virus under control, but also to
9:29
Speaker 2: ensure that we pass a large economic stimulus. And if
9:32
Speaker 2: you tout these numbers too much, you're going to undermine
9:34
Speaker 2: the political will for that in Congress. And so that's
9:38
Speaker 2: why I say it's both a message mistake and a
9:40
Speaker 2: strategic mistake, because he made it much more likely. Jeff
9:43
Speaker 2: Stein from The Washington Post reports today that based on
9:46
Speaker 2: conversations with people familiar with White House economic officials, you're
9:50
Speaker 2: looking at a much smaller recovery package, if another one,
9:53
Speaker 2: and hardened opposition to extension of the unemployment benefits, which
9:58
Speaker 2: would be devastating. to the economy if that's the case.
10:02
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about that. That was actually our first
10:04
Speaker 1: question from listeners. Juliet Hope asks, can you discuss the
10:08
Speaker 1: upcoming time bomb that is the extra $ 600 unemployment insurance
10:12
Speaker 1: payment running out and people maxing out on regular unemployment
10:16
Speaker 1: insurance and and school not going back full time or
10:20
Speaker 1: at all. It's about to be a giant fucking catastrophe.
10:24
Speaker 1: So Dan, you started talking about this with the extra
10:27
Speaker 1: $ 600 unemployment insurance payment. I believe this runs out at
10:31
Speaker 1: the end of July.
10:32
Speaker 2: I think that's correct, yes.
10:34
Speaker 1: So basically Republicans, their position now, and it seems like
10:38
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's position in an interview, I believe this week,
10:41
Speaker 1: is that they don't want to re-up the $ 600 extra
10:45
Speaker 1: payment benefit that comes with unemployment insurance to people who are,
10:50
Speaker 1: by the way, staying home through no fault of their
10:52
Speaker 1: own because their businesses are closed or they were furloughed
10:55
Speaker 1: or they were laid off because of the fucking pandemic.
10:57
Speaker 1: And the idea behind this program was, and this was
11:00
Speaker 1: Democrats who pushed this, Democrats in Congress, unemployment insurance gives
11:04
Speaker 1: you a certain percentage of your income. They wanted to
11:07
Speaker 1: make sure that people who are home through no fault
11:10
Speaker 1: of their own were getting 100% of their income. The
11:13
Speaker 1: easiest way to do this is to average it out
11:16
Speaker 1: across different salaries. And it basically came to, if you
11:20
Speaker 1: do everyone's unemployment insurance benefits, plus about $ 600 a week,
11:24
Speaker 1: you'll get close to people making 100% of what they
11:27
Speaker 1: made when they were at work. That's how that program
11:30
Speaker 1: came to be. Republicans and Donald Trump are now saying,
11:32
Speaker 1: we don't want to do that again, because that is
11:34
Speaker 1: incentivizing people to stay home and not go back to work.
11:39
Speaker 2: They can't work because their businesses are shut down because
11:42
Speaker 2: our president was too stupid to contain the virus. That
11:46
Speaker 2: is why. I mean, it is morally offensive, right? Like
11:49
Speaker 2: at the bare fucking minimum that we should do as
11:52
Speaker 2: a country is to make sure that people have enough
11:54
Speaker 2: money to live in their homes, have food, right? Be
12:00
Speaker 2: able to put gas in their car. All of those
12:02
Speaker 2: things like that is the bare minimum we should do
12:04
Speaker 2: under the best of times, let alone the worst of times.
12:07
Speaker 2: But if you want a strong economy, you want the
12:10
Speaker 2: economy to come back, then the people have to have
12:12
Speaker 2: money to buy goods. So let's say you don't extend
12:14
Speaker 2: the $ 600. Let's say you are just some rapacious Republican
12:18
Speaker 2: asshole who does not care about unemployed people. When they
12:22
Speaker 2: don't have money, they are not going to pay their rent.
12:26
Speaker 2: When they do not pay their rent, they will be evicted. Therefore,
12:29
Speaker 2: the landlords will not get money. The stores will have
12:35
Speaker 2: less revenue and less profit because people are not able
12:37
Speaker 2: to buy things. It is a recessionary spiral. The reason
12:41
Speaker 2: the economy is not much, much worse than it could
12:43
Speaker 2: be is because we gave people something to help them
12:46
Speaker 2: get through this time. The time is still happening. The
12:50
Speaker 2: coronavirus is getting worse, not better. And the idea that
12:52
Speaker 2: we would cut people off in the middle of it
12:54
Speaker 2: when they cannot go to work is insane.
12:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the thing too. Like, you know, a lot
13:00
Speaker 1: of small business owners and people and restaurant owners and
13:02
Speaker 1: everyone else is like saying to people, well, we're not
13:05
Speaker 1: getting employees. They don't want to come back because they're
13:07
Speaker 1: making as much or more money at home. They don't
13:10
Speaker 1: want to come back because they're afraid to get the
13:12
Speaker 1: virus because we haven't controlled it. Like that's a legitimate
13:15
Speaker 1: reason to not want to go back to work. More
13:18
Speaker 1: than legitimate reason.
13:20
Speaker 2: And if you work in a restaurant, because we have such,
13:23
Speaker 2: in large parts of this country, still a incredibly outdated,
13:26
Speaker 2: cruel minimum wage, you work on tips. And when restaurants
13:30
Speaker 2: are at 25% or 50% capacity, then you're not getting
13:33
Speaker 2: enough money to get like it's just pay people and
13:38
Speaker 2: get the virus under control. It's not like we do
13:40
Speaker 2: not have to choose. It is so stupid. It is
13:42
Speaker 2: a policy choice to have a shitty economy right now.
13:45
Speaker 2: It is a policy choice to force people to choose
13:48
Speaker 2: between paying their rent and potentially dying of a virus.
13:53
Speaker 1: And so I think where this is going to go
13:54
Speaker 1: is Republicans are basically saying, we want to do another
13:57
Speaker 1: stimulus and extend unemployment insurance. But what we want to
14:00
Speaker 1: do is give people like a one-time back-to-work bonus, which
14:04
Speaker 1: basically incentivizes people to go risk their lives at their
14:07
Speaker 1: workplace if their workplace is open. And then Democrats are
14:11
Speaker 1: hopefully going to fight for the extra $ 600 plus an
14:15
Speaker 1: extension of unemployment insurance. And I guess we'll see how
14:18
Speaker 1: that battle goes in late July. But I think politically...
14:22
Speaker 1: it is a good battle for Democrats to fight and
14:25
Speaker 1: also the morally correct battle for Democrats to fight as well.
14:28
Speaker 2: And I think some Democrats, including Schumer, I believe, introduced
14:32
Speaker 2: a bill that would make the expanded unemployment benefits extended
14:38
Speaker 2: and only turned off by the situation in your state,
14:42
Speaker 2: on the virus, on the economy, which is, I think,
14:45
Speaker 2: a really smart way to do it. And if Donald
14:46
Speaker 2: Trump is so confident that this virus is going to disappear.
14:49
Speaker 2: You should have no problem supporting a bill like that
14:51
Speaker 2: because that would be over very quickly.
14:52
Speaker 1: Do you want to talk about the impending disaster of
14:56
Speaker 1: school not going back full time or at all?
14:58
Speaker 2: I mean, like we obviously have a childcare crisis in
15:02
Speaker 2: this country at the best of times because we are
15:04
Speaker 2: incapable of having universal pre-K and other things that most
15:08
Speaker 2: of the normal world thinks is an important part of
15:11
Speaker 2: having a functioning society. But how are parents supposed to work, right,
15:16
Speaker 2: when you have your kids at home? Like, there are
15:18
Speaker 2: two parts of this. One is my family is very
15:20
Speaker 2: fortunate in the sense that Kyla's only two and therefore
15:23
Speaker 2: we are not for like, it is easier for us
15:26
Speaker 2: to sort of play with her. Someone works to turn
15:29
Speaker 2: off it. Like we don't have this obligation to like
15:32
Speaker 2: do four hours of zoom social studies every day.
15:35
Speaker 3: Right.
15:36
Speaker 2: And, but like a lot of my friends have kids
15:38
Speaker 2: who are of school age and it is impossible for,
15:41
Speaker 2: you know, for single parents, two family parents to, you know,
15:44
Speaker 2: to work or two working parent families to do this
15:47
Speaker 2: all the time. And so what is going to happen there?
15:50
Speaker 2: And then what is going to happen to all of
15:53
Speaker 2: the teachers and all the people who work in schools
15:55
Speaker 2: who will not have jobs come the fall if we
15:58
Speaker 2: can't get this right? And it's really, I mean, and
16:01
Speaker 2: the problem is, is because we don't know what's happening
16:03
Speaker 2: with the virus. No one can give people any ability
16:05
Speaker 2: to plan because they do not know what is going
16:09
Speaker 2: to happen in schools.
16:12
Speaker 1: And look, the reasons that schools are having trouble opening
16:16
Speaker 1: up is we don't know a lot about the virus.
16:17
Speaker 1: There's some evidence that it's not as transmissible with children.
16:22
Speaker 1: But no matter how many... precautions schools take, whether there's distancing,
16:27
Speaker 1: whether there's masks, gloves, sanitation, all this kind of stuff, which,
16:31
Speaker 1: by the way, is already hard for public schools to
16:34
Speaker 1: spend money on and do. It's always going to be
16:37
Speaker 1: true that if your school is in an area of
16:40
Speaker 1: the country where there's more virus, there is more danger there.
16:45
Speaker 1: And so the best thing we can do to help
16:47
Speaker 1: schools open again is to tamp down the virus and
16:50
Speaker 1: to defeat the virus, right? And it's clear that Donald Trump,
16:53
Speaker 1: the federal government, and a lot of state governments have
16:56
Speaker 1: prioritized opening up fucking bars and restaurants over schools, which
17:03
Speaker 1: is absurd, right? Because now they've opened up bars, they've
17:06
Speaker 1: opened up big gathering places, stuff like that, and now
17:10
Speaker 1: we have virus spikes everywhere. in places like florida and
17:13
Speaker 1: texas and georgia and arizona and california and now there's
17:18
Speaker 1: so much virus that like no matter how many precautions
17:21
Speaker 1: you take at public schools it's still going to be
17:23
Speaker 1: dangerous so it's like again just like the economy whether
17:27
Speaker 1: it's the economy whether it's public schools whether it's education
17:30
Speaker 1: whatever it may be like the number one economic plan
17:33
Speaker 1: the number one education plan is beat the virus that's
17:36
Speaker 1: it that's the that's the most important priority And the
17:39
Speaker 1: federal government has just decided not to do it because
17:41
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's in charge. Juliet also ended her question by asking,
17:44
Speaker 1: where is my Dan Ben all rant crossover episode? I
17:50
Speaker 1: love that. I love you and Rhodes to get together
17:51
Speaker 1: and just start. I don't know what you'd rant about,
17:53
Speaker 1: but something.
17:55
Speaker 2: I got to be honest about something. Sometimes I rant
17:59
Speaker 2: and sometimes I enjoy ranting. I do not enjoy being
18:03
Speaker 2: known as a ranter. Now that's no one's fault, but
18:05
Speaker 2: my own. I recognize that, but it is, I'm very
18:11
Speaker 2: uncomfortable with it. And sometimes like when I, back when
18:13
Speaker 2: I was allowed to leave my home and I would
18:15
Speaker 2: travel and I was doing like book events, you know,
18:18
Speaker 2: you get a question from the audience, they would say, can,
18:20
Speaker 2: can you give me a Paul Ryan rant? And it's like,
18:23
Speaker 2: I wrote a book. I mean, I recognize I put
18:25
Speaker 2: a Paul Ryan rant in the book, but it's like,
18:26
Speaker 2: I wrote a book. I'd like to talk about the book.
18:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, whose fault is that?
18:29
Speaker 2: Can you just yell on any topic as long as
18:32
Speaker 2: it involves Paul Ryan? We don't care. Just yell for us.
18:35
Speaker 2: And like, look, as I said, this is my fault.
18:38
Speaker 2: Not happy about it. I would love to talk to
18:40
Speaker 2: Ben Rhodes on a podcast, off a podcast. I might
18:43
Speaker 2: end up ranting, but I would want to be part
18:46
Speaker 2: of some sort of rant special.
18:48
Speaker 1: I will say our friend Ben Rhodes is, When he
18:51
Speaker 1: started Pod Save the World, he still had his sort of,
18:55
Speaker 1: I go on cable TV, I'm polite. And as he
19:00
Speaker 1: got into Pod Save the World and the rants began,
19:03
Speaker 1: that really is the real Ben Rhodes that we know.
19:08
Speaker 1: It has been enjoyable hearing Ben go on a few
19:10
Speaker 1: rants on Pod Save the World, really find his voice.
19:13
Speaker 1: All right, well, we'll try to schedule that sometime in
19:16
Speaker 1: the future. Okay, so possibly related question. on the unemployment
19:20
Speaker 1: benefits from someone calling themselves Kitchen Witch. What is the
19:25
Speaker 1: number one thing that the Biden campaign needs to do
19:27
Speaker 1: that you haven't seen them do yet?
19:31
Speaker 2: I mean, the context of this is that Joe Biden
19:34
Speaker 2: is in a better political position than anyone ever possibly
19:37
Speaker 2: could have imagined. And just last night, it was reported
19:39
Speaker 2: that he outraised Trump, both the campaign and the combination
19:44
Speaker 2: of the campaign and the DNC outraised Trump, and the RNC.
19:46
Speaker 2: So that is a huge deal and it involved a
19:48
Speaker 2: very enjoyable dunking on Brad Parscale. So they're in a
19:53
Speaker 2: very good place. So don't file this under the unsolicited
19:56
Speaker 2: advice for Joe Biden tab on the New York Times
19:58
Speaker 2: op-ed page.
20:01
Speaker 1: Get out of the basement.
20:03
Speaker 2: Which is right next to the racist authoritarian rant tab. Look,
20:07
Speaker 2: I think that the next step for the Biden campaign
20:10
Speaker 2: is to undermine what remains Trump's last remaining strength in
20:16
Speaker 2: this race, which is even despite everything we just said
20:18
Speaker 2: about the state of the economy and his response to it,
20:21
Speaker 2: he is still better trusted on the economy. And voters,
20:26
Speaker 2: including a number of voters who are supporting Joe Biden,
20:29
Speaker 2: believe the economy would be better if Donald Trump was
20:31
Speaker 2: reelected than if Joe Biden was elected. And so I
20:34
Speaker 2: think what comes from that is fleshing out what he
20:37
Speaker 2: would do, right? It doesn't have to be a giant,
20:39
Speaker 2: like you don't need an entire book full of policy papers,
20:43
Speaker 2: but you need a pretty quick rundown of things that
20:45
Speaker 2: make sense. I think they are things that need to
20:48
Speaker 2: be consistent with what he has been supported before and
20:50
Speaker 2: what he worked on with Barack Obama, but also adjusted
20:52
Speaker 2: for the current reality we live in, which I think
20:54
Speaker 2: calls for bigger and bolder economic solutions than you would
20:58
Speaker 2: have expected when he started this race.
21:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, when I talked to Ron Klain last episode,
21:05
Speaker 1: he said that in the next couple of weeks, Biden
21:07
Speaker 1: will be coming out with a more detailed economic plan,
21:09
Speaker 1: particularly a jobs plan. I would imagine that like, you know,
21:13
Speaker 1: first point of any five point economic plan for Joe
21:15
Speaker 1: Biden is contain the virus. And you can look at
21:20
Speaker 1: one of the reasons that Joe Biden is leading significantly
21:24
Speaker 1: in the polls right now, even as Donald Trump retains
21:27
Speaker 1: this economic advantage is and you saw this in the
21:30
Speaker 1: New York Times-Siena College polling, like large majorities of Americans
21:34
Speaker 1: thinks it's more important to contain the virus, even if
21:38
Speaker 1: it hurts the economy in the short term, than reopen
21:41
Speaker 1: the economy if it means the virus might spread. So
21:44
Speaker 1: while a slight majority might still trust Trump on the economy,
21:49
Speaker 1: that's not the overriding issue of concern for them right now.
21:52
Speaker 1: It is controlling the virus. And so like Joe Biden
21:55
Speaker 1: may win this race, even with people trusting Trump more
21:59
Speaker 1: on the economy. That's very possible. But you're running a campaign.
22:03
Speaker 1: You've got advantages on Donald Trump everywhere else. This is
22:06
Speaker 1: the one place he has an advantage. You might as
22:08
Speaker 1: well work pretty hard to mitigate that advantage. And I
22:12
Speaker 1: think Peter Hamby has a great piece in Vanity Fair
22:14
Speaker 1: on this today or yesterday talking about this. And he
22:17
Speaker 1: cites some research from a pro-Biden super PAC that's out there,
22:21
Speaker 1: Unite the Country, that actually went through And did focus
22:24
Speaker 1: groups with a lot of these swing voters. And, you know,
22:27
Speaker 1: they found that when you talk about what Joe Biden
22:30
Speaker 1: did on the Recovery Act with Barack Obama when he
22:33
Speaker 1: was vice president, when you talk about Joe Biden's middle
22:35
Speaker 1: class roots, when you talk about what he plans to
22:38
Speaker 1: do in the future and what his vision is and
22:40
Speaker 1: how he wants to fight for middle class people and
22:42
Speaker 1: fight for you as opposed to rich people like Donald Trump.
22:44
Speaker 1: that actually gives some of these swing voters some confidence
22:48
Speaker 1: that Joe Biden will do as well, if not better
22:50
Speaker 1: than Donald Trump on managing the economy.
22:53
Speaker 2: This is all about the continuing effort for Biden to
22:57
Speaker 2: define himself before Trump defines Biden. And policy is a
23:03
Speaker 2: proxy for character and values, right? And so- Trump wants
23:07
Speaker 2: to paint a certain picture of Biden, and the more
23:10
Speaker 2: Biden fills in the blanks before Trump does that, and
23:12
Speaker 2: policy helps do that, and policy helps do it in
23:14
Speaker 2: a way that the press will cover, it makes the
23:17
Speaker 2: Trump campaign's pretty tough task even tougher.
23:20
Speaker 1: All right, next question is from Mark Collius. What do
23:24
Speaker 1: you guys think about the Lincoln Project crew? Are they
23:26
Speaker 1: effectively moving Republicans away from Trump, or is it not
23:30
Speaker 1: as effective as it seems to be on the surface?
23:32
Speaker 1: This is just one of many questions. that we received
23:35
Speaker 1: about the Lincoln Project, Dan. What do you think?
23:37
Speaker 2: I'd like to hear your answer first.
23:40
Speaker 1: Okay, so here's my thought on the Lincoln Project. To me,
23:43
Speaker 1: the Lincoln Project ads and their effectiveness make me think
23:46
Speaker 1: about the focus group that I sat down with in
23:50
Speaker 1: Arizona for the wilderness. That was the Romney-Clinton voters. People
23:53
Speaker 1: voted for Romney and then voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016,
23:57
Speaker 1: and most of them were former Republicans. And their problem
24:02
Speaker 1: with Trump is... All of the things that the Lincoln
24:06
Speaker 1: Project ads depict, right, that he's chaotic, that he's out
24:11
Speaker 1: of control, that he has like betrayed us in a
24:14
Speaker 1: million different ways, like all the great ads that they
24:17
Speaker 1: have are like definitely designed to move. Republicans, independent-leaning Republicans,
24:24
Speaker 1: and probably like undecided voters who are like maybe college-educated
24:28
Speaker 1: white men, right? That seems like the target for the Lincolnites. Now,
24:32
Speaker 1: are those the only undecided voters? Are those the only
24:36
Speaker 1: group of swing voters? Absolutely not. They are one slice
24:39
Speaker 1: of voters. So, you know, non-college-educated white voters who voted
24:44
Speaker 1: for Trump, who may be upset about the economy or
24:47
Speaker 1: upset about their own financial situation, Will the Lincoln Project
24:50
Speaker 1: ads move them? Maybe not. People who aren't decided whether
24:54
Speaker 1: they're going to vote at all, who tend to be
24:56
Speaker 1: people who are younger and voters of color, who come
24:59
Speaker 1: in and out of the electorate, are the Lincoln Project
25:02
Speaker 1: ads for them? Also probably not. But in this one
25:05
Speaker 1: small slice of the electorate, I do think they could
25:08
Speaker 1: be effective. And we don't know that for sure yet,
25:12
Speaker 1: but what we can tell in a lot of this polling,
25:14
Speaker 1: especially some of that New York Times polling, and they
25:16
Speaker 1: went and interviewed these voters, When they talk to people
25:19
Speaker 1: who voted for Trump in 2016 or former Republicans or
25:22
Speaker 1: Republicans who said they're going to vote for Joe Biden
25:24
Speaker 1: this time, what you hear from these voters reflects what
25:28
Speaker 1: you see in a lot of these Lincoln Project ads.
25:31
Speaker 1: So I do think they have some effect there. I
25:33
Speaker 1: don't know. What do you think?
25:36
Speaker 2: I mean, people, because of campaign experts react, the— YouTube
25:41
Speaker 2: series that Elijah makes me do. People ask me about
25:45
Speaker 2: the Lincoln Project all the time. They're constantly tweeting every
25:47
Speaker 2: Lincoln Project ad at me. And it's always in this
25:49
Speaker 2: context of, why can't Democrats be this good? And so
25:53
Speaker 2: I think a couple of things about this. One, I
25:57
Speaker 2: think some of their ads are excellent. What they are
26:00
Speaker 2: very good at, in addition to just being fast, which
26:02
Speaker 2: I think is impressive, but is they're very good at
26:05
Speaker 2: generating viral content that shapes media narratives. And that is
26:09
Speaker 2: an important function in any campaign. We need that. Republicans
26:11
Speaker 2: have a lot of that on their side. Democrats have limited.
26:13
Speaker 2: And because they are Republicans, that gets more attention, right?
26:17
Speaker 2: It has this sort of imprimatur legitimacy that it's a
26:20
Speaker 2: bunch of people who tried to get Mitt Romney and
26:22
Speaker 2: John McCain elected and someone who has breakfast with Kellyanne
26:24
Speaker 2: Conway putting these ads out, right? But I think it
26:31
Speaker 2: is easy to confuse, particularly for political junkies like us,
26:36
Speaker 2: Virality and efficacy, right? An ad that sort of titillates
26:41
Speaker 2: everyone on Twitter is unlikely to be a piece of
26:43
Speaker 2: content that is particularly persuasive to voters who do not
26:46
Speaker 2: feel strongly about Trump, who have mixed feelings about him,
26:49
Speaker 2: who are skeptical of politicians generally and Democrats specifically. And
26:55
Speaker 2: so I think it's just like I think they're serving
26:57
Speaker 2: a very useful function. A lot of times they put
26:59
Speaker 2: these ads up. They usually often run them in DC
27:02
Speaker 2: on the hopes that Trump will see them and react
27:03
Speaker 2: to them. I think that was the purpose of this
27:04
Speaker 2: ad they put out in Russia last night. I just
27:07
Speaker 2: saw they bought ads in South Dakota because Trump is
27:10
Speaker 2: doing an insane virus fire rally for the 4th of July.
27:14
Speaker 2: And they're trying to, you know, because they know all
27:17
Speaker 2: the reporters will be watching that and will react to it.
27:21
Speaker 2: I think that's all very clever. But there are a
27:23
Speaker 2: bunch of Democratic super PACs who were just out there
27:26
Speaker 2: doing the work, right? They are running ads that are effective.
27:31
Speaker 2: They are not as sexy. You know, they are unlikely
27:34
Speaker 2: to get a thousand retweets. They're not allowed to get
27:35
Speaker 2: a bunch of like Hollywood celebrities tweeting them out and
27:39
Speaker 2: praising them. Like they're not recent celebrities. Like it's sort of.
27:42
Speaker 2: It's a little like Mark Wahlberg in The Departed, right?
27:46
Speaker 2: You know, a lot of these Democratic super PACs are
27:48
Speaker 2: the ones doing their jobs and Lincoln Project, maybe the
27:52
Speaker 2: other guys. And so like they have some very good
27:54
Speaker 2: ads and we discuss one of them on next week's
27:57
Speaker 2: episode of Campaign Experts React. But I just I think
28:00
Speaker 2: that we just have to recognize that sometimes very, very
28:03
Speaker 2: effective ads are boring to political junkies.
28:07
Speaker 1: Oh, most of the time they are. Most of the
28:09
Speaker 1: time they are. Because, and partly because political junkies, look,
28:12
Speaker 1: I think part of it is there's a class and
28:14
Speaker 1: education divide here, right? Like the, when we poll, the
28:19
Speaker 1: ads that are most effective tend to be ads about
28:22
Speaker 1: like economic populism, Trump taking away your healthcare, Trump's trade
28:27
Speaker 1: deals hurting farmers, the fact that, you know, like other
28:32
Speaker 1: kinds of economic issues. And they're targeted at voters who
28:37
Speaker 1: are particularly cynical and frustrated with government and sometimes both
28:40
Speaker 1: parties because they haven't delivered for them because their financial
28:44
Speaker 1: situation is very tough and it doesn't seem like anyone
28:47
Speaker 1: in Washington is doing anything for them. Those ads tend
28:50
Speaker 1: to be effective among large groups of swing voters that
28:53
Speaker 1: we're trying to get. Those ads don't tend to be
28:55
Speaker 1: very sexy to people who are in media, in Republican
28:59
Speaker 1: consultant circles, in punditry circles, Hollywood circles, all the people
29:03
Speaker 1: on Twitter who are retweeting all the time. But again, Like,
29:07
Speaker 1: I think it is very valuable to try to shape
29:10
Speaker 1: the news cycle because... people make up their minds about elections,
29:13
Speaker 1: not just through ads, but through media coverage. And to
29:16
Speaker 1: the extent that the Lincoln Project people can have figured
29:18
Speaker 1: out how to game media coverage and help shape the
29:20
Speaker 1: media narrative, I think that's very useful. And we could
29:24
Speaker 1: probably learn to do that as well with some of
29:25
Speaker 1: our ads, even if they're not like directly targeted to
29:28
Speaker 1: the voters that we need.
29:29
Speaker 2: And there are some people like the new PAC Midas
29:31
Speaker 2: Touch who are doing that and similar effectiveness. The other
29:36
Speaker 2: thing I think to the credit of the Lincoln Project,
29:39
Speaker 2: like there's a lot of grifting going on in Never
29:41
Speaker 2: Trump circles. You know, a bunch of people who've decided
29:44
Speaker 2: that the way to get attention is to be a
29:46
Speaker 2: Republican against Trump. You know, this sort of the Scaramucci
29:48
Speaker 2: Omarosa world or John Bolton in instance, right? There's a
29:51
Speaker 2: way to, you can get some pretty big checks being
29:53
Speaker 2: one of those, the lonely few, if you will. But
29:56
Speaker 2: the Lincoln Project is, folks are doing something that is
29:59
Speaker 2: not getting a lot of attention, which is they are
30:00
Speaker 2: actually running ads to help the Democrats take the Senate back.
30:03
Speaker 2: They have an ad up in Montana that is a
30:07
Speaker 2: mostly positive spot about Steve Bullock that takes a shot
30:10
Speaker 2: at Steve Daines. And it's one thing if they were like,
30:12
Speaker 2: they obviously have a lot of enmity towards like Lindsey
30:15
Speaker 2: Graham and McConnell and the people who have facilitated Trump
30:17
Speaker 2: and they think are sinking their party. But when you
30:20
Speaker 2: take on Steve Daines, like that's a sign that you think,
30:23
Speaker 2: the way to solve the problem in the party is
30:25
Speaker 2: to give Democrats full control and make the Republicans have
30:27
Speaker 2: a reckoning. And I think they should get credit for that.
30:30
Speaker 2: This is not just a bunch of viral anti-Trump videos
30:32
Speaker 2: followed by some book contracts. Like, if you're going to
30:34
Speaker 2: help Steve Bullock get elected, I applaud that.
30:38
Speaker 1: And look, you don't have to love all of the
30:41
Speaker 1: policy positions or political positions of the people in the
30:43
Speaker 1: Lincoln Project. Like, politics is about building alliances towards shared goals.
30:48
Speaker 1: And when our goals sort of separate from theirs... then
30:53
Speaker 1: we don't need the lincoln project anymore we can go
30:55
Speaker 1: back to fighting each other right like it doesn't mean
30:57
Speaker 1: like because you like a lincoln project ad that you
31:00
Speaker 1: like have to say oh they had a great position
31:02
Speaker 1: on the iraq war none of them did but right
31:05
Speaker 1: now donald trump is an immediate and urgent threat to
31:07
Speaker 1: democracy and it's like let's take all the help we
31:09
Speaker 1: can get from all across the political spectrum to beat
31:11
Speaker 1: him and then once he's gone we can all go
31:13
Speaker 1: back to fighting over other issues.
31:23
Speaker 3: All right.
31:23
Speaker 1: Safi Khalil asks, does Dan think there's a contradiction between
31:27
Speaker 1: believing the tipping point states and the electoral college will
31:29
Speaker 1: be very close, but also advocating for more reach Senate candidates?
31:34
Speaker 1: If you believe we're winning Wisconsin by no more than
31:36
Speaker 1: two to three points, we're probably losing Iowa by more
31:38
Speaker 1: than five. And Teresa Greenfield, she's the Democratic Senate candidate
31:42
Speaker 1: in Iowa, is a solid candidate, but unlikely to win
31:45
Speaker 1: in that environment. Great question. What do you think?
31:47
Speaker 2: It is a great question. It made me really reconsider
31:49
Speaker 2: a lot of the things I've been doing recently. So
31:51
Speaker 2: thank you. I mean, I certainly understand the question. I
31:54
Speaker 2: understand if you're one individual and you're like, I have
31:57
Speaker 2: one day to canvas, right? Does it make more sense
31:59
Speaker 2: to canvas in Wisconsin or in Iowa? And I would
32:05
Speaker 2: say wrong answer, canvas in North Carolina, duh. But so yes,
32:10
Speaker 2: like everyone should prioritize what states or races they care
32:13
Speaker 2: about most. And I don't know that Joe Biden is
32:16
Speaker 2: only winning Wisconsin by two to three. I mean, the
32:19
Speaker 2: most likely scenario three months ago was he's winning by
32:21
Speaker 2: one or losing by one, right? And maybe he wins
32:24
Speaker 2: by two or three. Maybe he wins by nine, right?
32:26
Speaker 2: I mean, Obama won it by seven not that many
32:27
Speaker 2: years ago. But just like Joe Biden and the Democrats
32:34
Speaker 2: need to create as many paths as possible to 270,
32:37
Speaker 2: the Senate Democrats need to create as many paths possible
32:41
Speaker 2: to 50, right? Because you don't know what's going to happen, right?
32:43
Speaker 2: Like right now, Mark Kelly... and John Hickenlooper look very strong,
32:48
Speaker 2: but who knows what will happen in those states, right?
32:50
Speaker 2: Particularly in a situation with a pandemic. So like if
32:54
Speaker 2: we can invest in Teresa Greenfield and build the opportunity
32:57
Speaker 2: and sort of, you know, build a surfboard so if
32:59
Speaker 2: a wave comes, she can catch it, we should do it.
33:01
Speaker 2: And the other part about that that I think is
33:02
Speaker 2: important is every well-funded organized race, whether you win or lose,
33:08
Speaker 2: makes the next one easier, right? Like maybe Teresa Greenfield wins,
33:12
Speaker 2: then we get an extra center. If not, but if
33:13
Speaker 2: she runs a close race against Joni Ernst, We're going
33:15
Speaker 2: to walk out of that race with a stronger democratic
33:17
Speaker 2: organization and Iowa more volunteers, better data that can be
33:21
Speaker 2: applied to the next time there's a statewide candidate in
33:24
Speaker 2: that race.
33:26
Speaker 1: I think the national political environment contributes to about, I
33:32
Speaker 1: don't know, 90 plus percent of the final outcome in
33:36
Speaker 1: a lot of these statewide races. And I think the
33:40
Speaker 1: partisan makeup of that state The partisan makeup of the
33:43
Speaker 1: state plus the national political environment gets you about like
33:46
Speaker 1: 90% there, maybe even more at this point because we're
33:49
Speaker 1: like more polarized than ever. But candidate quality, individual races,
33:55
Speaker 1: individual messages between both of the candidates, those things matter.
33:59
Speaker 1: They still do matter. And that's why you get results
34:01
Speaker 1: like Jon Tester winning in Montana in 2018, even though
34:07
Speaker 1: it's a state that Trump won by double digits. We
34:10
Speaker 1: still had a Democratic senator hang on in that state. Now,
34:13
Speaker 1: we had a bunch of other Democratic senators in states
34:15
Speaker 1: that Trump won who lost because they just couldn't hang
34:19
Speaker 1: on and they couldn't beat sort of like the national
34:21
Speaker 1: sort of political environment and the partisan makeup of the state.
34:25
Speaker 1: But every once in a while, you have candidates who
34:29
Speaker 1: sort of who beat that. And I think it usually
34:33
Speaker 1: happens every cycle. So will it be Teresa Greenfield? Will
34:36
Speaker 1: it be Steve Bullock? Will it be Doug Jones? Will
34:39
Speaker 1: it be, you know, like we don't know. who that
34:41
Speaker 1: candidate is going to be that sort of beats the
34:43
Speaker 1: partisan makeup of their state and the national public environment.
34:45
Speaker 1: But like you said, you might as well bet on
34:47
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of, uh, of candidates to see which
34:50
Speaker 1: one of them is going to do it. Shane Smith asks,
34:53
Speaker 1: can Washington DC achieve statehood with a simple majority vote
34:56
Speaker 1: in the house and Senate and the president signing the bill,
34:59
Speaker 1: or is there more to the process? Also how close
35:01
Speaker 1: is Puerto Rico to becoming a state? Um, ostensibly this
35:05
Speaker 1: is someone named Shane Smith, but I do believe it
35:08
Speaker 1: was actually a question sent in by our producer, Michael Martinez,
35:12
Speaker 1: longtime resident of D.C., longtime advocate of D.C. statehood. So, Michael,
35:16
Speaker 1: we'll just answer your question, which you could have just
35:18
Speaker 1: asked us on Slack, but we'll answer it here. So
35:22
Speaker 1: I think if we have a Democratic House and Senate
35:25
Speaker 1: and we have Joe Biden as president and notably we
35:29
Speaker 1: remove the filibuster, then yes, that's how they can make Washington, D.C.
35:33
Speaker 1: a state. That simply, right? Yes.
35:36
Speaker 2: I mean, you're ignoring the obvious need for a very
35:40
Speaker 2: expensive process to redesign the flag.
35:44
Speaker 1: That's true. You know, we can worry about that.
35:47
Speaker 2: And we also have to name Washington, D.C. something.
35:50
Speaker 1: Oh, that's right.
35:51
Speaker 2: That's actually in the House bill, I think. Don't they
35:53
Speaker 2: rename it the Commonwealth of Douglas? Yes.
35:58
Speaker 3: Yeah.
35:58
Speaker 1: I think Doug, I was just going to say, I
36:00
Speaker 1: think Douglas is in there after Frederick Douglas. That's just wonderful.
36:03
Speaker 1: I love that.
36:04
Speaker 2: Let's just start. I think we should just like, you
36:06
Speaker 2: don't even have to keep Washington having Washington and Washington,
36:08
Speaker 2: Washington state, Washington DC is confusing. Let's just.
36:11
Speaker 3: Right.
36:12
Speaker 1: That's a good point. Yeah.
36:13
Speaker 2: We can do anything. It's a blank canvas. People let
36:15
Speaker 2: the people of DC decide. I will say the last
36:17
Speaker 2: time they voted on something like this, they ended up
36:19
Speaker 2: renaming the Washington Bulls, the Washington wizards. So maybe this
36:24
Speaker 2: could go very poorly.
36:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true. And on your question on Puerto Rico,
36:29
Speaker 1: in May, Puerto Rico's governor announced a non-binding referendum that
36:32
Speaker 1: will be on November 3rd, 2020, that will ask voters
36:35
Speaker 1: in Puerto Rico if Puerto Rico should be admitted as
36:39
Speaker 1: a U.S. state. And look, we do not want these
36:43
Speaker 1: to become states just so that we can have a
36:45
Speaker 1: couple Democratic senators from D.C. and Puerto Rico. It's important
36:48
Speaker 1: for the people, the Americans who live in Puerto Rico
36:52
Speaker 1: and Washington, D.C., to be able to determine whether whether
36:56
Speaker 1: they're admitted as states and to be able to get
36:59
Speaker 1: representation in the United States Congress, real representation. That's why
37:04
Speaker 1: this is important right now. But yeah, I think, you know,
37:08
Speaker 1: because Republicans have decided that they don't give a shit
37:10
Speaker 1: about this, about having people who are Americans who are
37:13
Speaker 1: not represented in the U.S. Congress by any representatives who
37:17
Speaker 1: actually have real voting power, it's going to be up
37:20
Speaker 1: to Democrats to do that. And so, but yeah, if
37:22
Speaker 1: we have a Democratic Senate, Democratic House and Joe Biden,
37:25
Speaker 1: We could we could do that in the first couple
37:26
Speaker 1: of weeks. Great. Amy Hendrickson asks if there's a retirement
37:31
Speaker 1: on the Supreme Court. I just got a bad feeling
37:35
Speaker 1: in my stomach just reading that either Alito, Samuel Alito
37:39
Speaker 1: or Justice Thomas, Clarence Thomas or both. Oh, is there
37:43
Speaker 1: any way the Democrats can prevent McConnell and the Republicans
37:45
Speaker 1: from rushing a confirmation before the election?
37:50
Speaker 2: Yes, there is. And I will talk about it.
37:53
Speaker 1: Oh, okay, good. I wasn't sure about this one, Dan.
37:55
Speaker 2: I mean, oftentimes, I've brought this up a few weeks
37:57
Speaker 2: ago to you, and you, as you often and correctly do,
38:01
Speaker 2: accuse me of doomsaying.
38:04
Speaker 1: I mean, I was having a good day until you
38:05
Speaker 1: sent me that story.
38:06
Speaker 2: I'm trying to give you the information you need to
38:10
Speaker 2: make the appropriate decisions about your moods, right? How you
38:12
Speaker 2: choose these information is.
38:13
Speaker 1: Up to you.
38:14
Speaker 2: But there are a decent amount of rumors flying around
38:18
Speaker 2: Washington that either Alito or Thomas is going to retire,
38:23
Speaker 2: in part because Trump's political position is so terrible that
38:26
Speaker 2: they feel like they would be locking– if they do
38:27
Speaker 2: not retire now, these independent Supreme Court justices would never
38:31
Speaker 2: retire under a Democrat. So they're locking themselves into four
38:35
Speaker 2: or eight more years of being on the court. It
38:39
Speaker 2: has been reported that Donald Trump would like a Supreme
38:42
Speaker 2: Court vacancy because he thinks it would help him politically
38:44
Speaker 2: because he has convinced himself of his own narrative that
38:47
Speaker 2: Brett Kavanaugh helped him by giving Democrats the largest popular
38:50
Speaker 2: vote margin in House races in history. So I think
38:57
Speaker 2: this is not something we should discount as a possibility.
39:01
Speaker 2: But in order to get that done, Mitch McConnell is
39:06
Speaker 2: going to need the votes of Susan Collins, Cory Gardner,
39:11
Speaker 2: Martha McSally. And so we do have the ability to
39:13
Speaker 2: put tremendous pressure on them. to not violate the standard
39:18
Speaker 2: that they themselves set four years prior, right? They would
39:22
Speaker 2: be forced to violate the quote unquote McConnell rule. And frankly,
39:24
Speaker 2: add Mitch McConnell to that list of people you need
39:26
Speaker 2: to put real political pressure on in their states.
39:30
Speaker 3: Yeah.
39:31
Speaker 1: Now I'm going to be the pessimist. That's still a,
39:34
Speaker 1: I guess it's a possibility we could stop that, but
39:36
Speaker 1: that still requires Susan Collins to do something courageous or
39:41
Speaker 1: independent or even in her own political interest, which I'm
39:45
Speaker 1: not sure that she knows what that is anymore. Yeah.
39:50
Speaker 1: So anyway, but yeah, I guess I guess Democrats could
39:52
Speaker 1: do everything possible to gum up the work, slow things down.
39:55
Speaker 1: And then just it would be a tremendous pressure campaign
39:57
Speaker 1: on the Republicans who are up in 2020. And, you know,
40:00
Speaker 1: the window is closing, right? Like they have to nominate someone.
40:02
Speaker 1: There have to be hearings. It's now July. I guess
40:06
Speaker 1: the retirement would be announced sometime this month or maybe
40:08
Speaker 1: even in August. I think we've had August retirement announcements, too.
40:12
Speaker 1: So then it would be, man, then the fall campaign, September,
40:15
Speaker 1: October would be like a campaign campaign. In the middle
40:17
Speaker 1: of a pandemic and a recession against Donald Trump and
40:20
Speaker 1: Joe Biden with a Supreme Court nomination happening in the background. Jesus.
40:25
Speaker 1: It doesn't sound great, Dan.
40:26
Speaker 2: It's basically the Kavanaugh schedule all over again, right?
40:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, except with a presidential instead of a midterm.
40:32
Speaker 2: And a pandemic.
40:33
Speaker 1: And a pandemic, yeah. Wonderful. Steve Garrison asks, I've always
40:37
Speaker 1: wondered when a campaign loses like all the other candidates
40:39
Speaker 1: in the primary did, what happens to the money they raised?
40:42
Speaker 1: Do they keep it? What is the answer to this, Dan?
40:46
Speaker 1: I know they don't get to pocket the cash.
40:48
Speaker 2: Well, most cases, campaigns end with close to zero money
40:54
Speaker 2: and oftentimes negative money. So it's pretty rare that a
40:58
Speaker 2: campaign ends in the black. But when that does happen,
41:02
Speaker 2: they can keep it in their campaign account, which could
41:04
Speaker 2: be used for future campaigns for federal office, presuming we're
41:07
Speaker 2: obviously talking about presidential campaigns right now, or they can
41:10
Speaker 2: make unlimited contributions to party committees. So- Michael Bloomberg ended
41:16
Speaker 2: his campaign with, I think, $ 18 million in his campaign account. Now,
41:19
Speaker 2: it was his money to begin with, but he had
41:21
Speaker 2: donated to the campaign. And he gave all of that
41:24
Speaker 2: money to the DNC. That was his big contribution. Let's
41:27
Speaker 2: just say, hypothetically, Bernie Sanders ended with $ 7 million in
41:32
Speaker 2: his account. He could give that money to other campaigns
41:36
Speaker 2: in line with federal limits, which I think maybe, I
41:39
Speaker 2: think it's a PAC limit, but it's in the thousands
41:41
Speaker 2: of dollars. Or he could give all of that money
41:44
Speaker 2: to the DSCC to help take the Senate or something
41:47
Speaker 2: like that.
41:48
Speaker 1: Yeah.
41:49
Speaker 2: But also campaigns often, there is a huge and very
41:52
Speaker 2: long audit and shutdown process at the end of campaigns.
41:56
Speaker 2: I think it's very possible that certainly our 2012 campaign
41:59
Speaker 2: or 2008 campaign are still open for the shutdown process.
42:02
Speaker 2: Like that's how long it is. And so a lot
42:04
Speaker 2: of that money is spent on, you know, filing reports
42:07
Speaker 2: and complying with the audit. So it's not, they don't
42:09
Speaker 2: get to like go buy a second home with it. Right.
42:12
Speaker 2: Or anything like that.
42:13
Speaker 1: That's good. We got two questions on our adopt a
42:15
Speaker 1: state program. Hasitha Sridharan asks, I'm a Canadian living in America.
42:21
Speaker 1: Can I adopt a state or is that some FEC violation?
42:24
Speaker 1: Quick answer. If you're a foreign citizen, you can't donate.
42:27
Speaker 1: You can't vote, but you can do everything else. You
42:30
Speaker 1: can volunteer. You can contact voters. When we used to
42:33
Speaker 1: knock on doors, you can do that. You can phone bank.
42:36
Speaker 1: You can sign people. You can do everything but those
42:39
Speaker 1: two things, donating money and voting. So please adopt a state.
42:43
Speaker 1: Help us out here in America. We're now calling on
42:47
Speaker 1: the world to help us because we're in dire straits
42:51
Speaker 1: here with Donald Trump. Related question, Matt Mohica asks, is
42:56
Speaker 1: it possible to make up those trainings for Vote Save
42:58
Speaker 1: America that happen every Thursday? Haven't been able to make
43:00
Speaker 1: a training, but would love to make them up. P.S.
43:02
Speaker 1: Go Team Michigan. I think he meant Arizona. Yes, they're
43:06
Speaker 1: all online. YouTube.com slash Cricket Media. Smash that subscribe button.
43:13
Speaker 1: If you go to YouTube.com slash Crooked Media, all of
43:16
Speaker 1: the trainings are right there. We had just an amazing
43:20
Speaker 1: group of people sign up. I think there were like 16,000
43:22
Speaker 1: people on a Thursday night, four Thursdays in a row
43:26
Speaker 1: to do these trainings. It was very inspiring to see
43:30
Speaker 1: everyone show up to these and learn how to organize better.
43:34
Speaker 1: So thank you for everyone who participated and everyone go
43:37
Speaker 1: to YouTube.com slash Crooked Media and check it out. A
43:40
Speaker 1: few more fun ones. Hey guys, this is mash from Toronto.
43:44
Speaker 1: My question for both Dan and John, what novels are
43:46
Speaker 1: you currently reading?
43:49
Speaker 2: So I just finished the vanishing half by Brit Bennett,
43:53
Speaker 2: which is a truly.
43:54
Speaker 1: I just, I just, okay. I just started it.
43:56
Speaker 4: Yeah.
43:57
Speaker 2: It's great.
43:57
Speaker 1: Like last week.
43:59
Speaker 2: And I just started a death in her hands by
44:03
Speaker 2: a Tessa. I think I might pronounce mispronounce her name,
44:06
Speaker 2: but she is a American author who wrote a book
44:08
Speaker 2: called Eileen that won a lot of awards a few
44:10
Speaker 2: years ago. And is, uh, This is a bit of
44:12
Speaker 2: a sort of a literary murder mystery. And I'm only
44:15
Speaker 2: 10% in, which I know that because I read on
44:17
Speaker 2: a Kindle. But it's superb.
44:21
Speaker 1: I want you to know what I did the other night, Dan.
44:24
Speaker 1: I was so stressed out by the news and especially
44:28
Speaker 1: like all the pandemic news. I finally just looked at
44:30
Speaker 1: my phone and I said, I'm done. I deleted the
44:34
Speaker 1: Twitter app from my phone.
44:36
Speaker 5: Whoa.
44:37
Speaker 3: Is it back?
44:38
Speaker 1: No, it's not back. Because what I said to myself
44:40
Speaker 1: is when I sit down at my laptop, like I
44:44
Speaker 1: am now, or on my iPad, which are all in
44:46
Speaker 1: my office, I kept the Twitter apps there, especially on
44:48
Speaker 1: my iPad, so I can scroll there. But at least
44:51
Speaker 1: it makes me go into my office and sit there
44:53
Speaker 1: and scroll. And so like when I'm walking around the house,
44:55
Speaker 1: when I'm in bed, especially, no more scrolling through Twitter.
44:59
Speaker 1: And instead, you know, I started reading The Vanishing Half
45:03
Speaker 1: before bed, and it has put me at ease a
45:06
Speaker 1: bit more. To just not have the news scrolling in
45:09
Speaker 1: my mind.
45:09
Speaker 2: This was my post-White House changed my life, which is
45:13
Speaker 2: no phone in bed at night. It's plugged into the
45:18
Speaker 2: wall where I can't really reach it.
45:21
Speaker 1: Better.
45:22
Speaker 2: And like reading books. Now, the morning's not so great,
45:24
Speaker 2: but the night, that has been my plan. I'm not
45:27
Speaker 2: saying that I am the picture of fucking mental health
45:29
Speaker 2: these days, but it's better than the alternative, I guess.
45:32
Speaker 1: Same. Follow-up from Brady Minter. What are some of your
45:35
Speaker 1: favorite book recommendations on American political history, any era? I know, Dan,
45:40
Speaker 1: you and Tommy both read this, which is why I am.
45:42
Speaker 1: Nixonland by Rick Perlstein I've been reading. I've been trudging
45:46
Speaker 1: my way through. Long book. And long book. Long book
45:50
Speaker 1: for me. And also These Truths by Jill Lepore is
45:55
Speaker 1: an outstanding history of America that I would recommend to anyone.
45:59
Speaker 1: I've been reading that as well. What about you?
46:01
Speaker 2: So it kind of depends on– I have a long
46:04
Speaker 2: answer to this because really all I want to do
46:06
Speaker 2: in life is find a way that I could just
46:08
Speaker 2: like read and talk about books for a living. And
46:10
Speaker 2: so like it kind of depends what you want. If
46:12
Speaker 2: you want to learn about politics and campaigns, there are
46:15
Speaker 2: sort of like three books that have been read by
46:19
Speaker 2: every person who writes about American politics, who covers American politics.
46:23
Speaker 2: Every politician has read. Richard Ben Kramer's What It Takes,
46:27
Speaker 2: which is sort of the first– all of the inside
46:30
Speaker 2: the room, like glorification of strategists, like campaign trail books
46:37
Speaker 2: that we now know about, like Game Changer, all came
46:39
Speaker 2: from that book. It's an amazing book. Fear and Loathing
46:42
Speaker 2: on the Campaign Trail, Hunter S. Thompson's book about the
46:44
Speaker 2: 1972– Presidential Campaign is the book that every political reporter
46:49
Speaker 2: has read and they have all styled their lives after,
46:51
Speaker 2: you know, at least the most recent, not the current generation,
46:54
Speaker 2: most recent generation of political reporters where they're out there,
46:57
Speaker 2: they're at the campaign, they're at the bar at night,
46:59
Speaker 2: the hard drinking, hard living political reporter all comes from that.
47:03
Speaker 2: And then, you know, Timothy Krause's Boys on the Bus
47:06
Speaker 2: about the reporters covering the 1972 election is sort of
47:08
Speaker 2: helps you understand the modern, how we got to the
47:10
Speaker 2: place where we've been covering campaigns like sports for decades now.
47:15
Speaker 2: You know, there's like a gazillion biographies that you can
47:20
Speaker 2: recommend to people, whether it's Robert Karras books about LBJ or,
47:24
Speaker 2: you know, everything Doris Kearns Goodwin wrote about Lincoln and
47:27
Speaker 2: Teddy Roosevelt and Franklin Roosevelt. But I sort of think
47:29
Speaker 2: the most interesting books to read are the ones that
47:32
Speaker 2: are not about sort of, you know, the great man
47:35
Speaker 2: theory of history, these people who are bending, you know,
47:38
Speaker 2: the world to their will. And these books are almost
47:41
Speaker 2: invariably about men, which is why I said it that way.
47:43
Speaker 2: But there are two books that I think are about
47:47
Speaker 2: sort of the country and the forces that shape the
47:49
Speaker 2: men and women who leave the country that are incredibly
47:51
Speaker 2: important to read. One is The Warmth of Other Suns
47:54
Speaker 2: by Isabel Wilkerson, which is about the Great Migration. And
47:57
Speaker 2: the other one is Republic of Suffering, which is by
48:00
Speaker 2: Drew Gilpin Faust, that is about the effect the Civil
48:04
Speaker 2: War had on the country because of the tremendous trauma.
48:08
Speaker 2: Like everyone who died was an American. And it helps
48:10
Speaker 2: explain– It sets the context for the conversation we're having
48:14
Speaker 2: right now about the Confederacy and statues and all of that.
48:19
Speaker 2: And it's a dark read, obviously, but I think a
48:22
Speaker 2: really powerful one of understanding the impact of war in
48:26
Speaker 2: general and that war in particular on American people.
48:28
Speaker 1: A few fun ones. Eileen Crinock asks, Dan, is that
48:31
Speaker 1: Bigfoot on your wall?
48:33
Speaker 2: I am not sure what they're referring to, but I
48:36
Speaker 2: think they're referring to it is an artistic rendering of
48:38
Speaker 2: Allen Iverson stepping over Tyronn Lue in the 2001 NBA
48:41
Speaker 2: finals that my book publisher gave me to congratulate me
48:46
Speaker 2: on the publication of my first book. And so the
48:49
Speaker 2: fact that he knew that that is a gift that
48:50
Speaker 2: I would A, love and B, put on my wall
48:52
Speaker 2: is why we've worked together for many years now.
48:54
Speaker 1: Good publisher. Yes. Ashley Voss asks, when is Alyssa Mastromonaco
48:58
Speaker 1: going to get a podcast with you guys? She's a gem.
49:01
Speaker 1: Of course she's a gem. First of all, that's why
49:03
Speaker 1: she's doing That's the Ticket with you, Dan, because she's
49:06
Speaker 1: the country's foremost expert in the vice presidential process and
49:09
Speaker 1: a gem and a pleasure to listen to. She's also
49:12
Speaker 1: a co-host on Crooked Media's Hysteria podcast, which is celebrating
49:18
Speaker 1: its 100th episode today. Happy 100th episode to Aaron and
49:22
Speaker 1: Alyssa and the whole crew at Hysteria. But yeah, the
49:25
Speaker 1: more Alyssa, the better is really our theory here at
49:28
Speaker 1: Crooked Media.
49:29
Speaker 2: I mean, that's been our theory for the last 13 years.
49:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, that predates Crooked Media.
49:35
Speaker 2: That's basically been your plan for the 21st century is
49:37
Speaker 2: more or less the better.
49:38
Speaker 1: Literally since the day I graduated college. Crystal asked Dan,
49:41
Speaker 1: I got a new job and I'm moving to Delaware.
49:43
Speaker 1: What's the best thing about the state? Best Delaware food.
49:46
Speaker 1: I can't wait for this one.
49:48
Speaker 2: Do you remember that restaurant in Union Station in D.C.
49:51
Speaker 2: called America?
49:52
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah.
49:54
Speaker 2: And its shtick was they had food from all 50 states.
49:57
Speaker 2: I do remember that. So New York is pizza, and
50:01
Speaker 2: California is something Mexican, and Texas is barbecue, and I'm
50:04
Speaker 2: sure maybe Ohio is chili or something. And Delaware was
50:08
Speaker 2: a chicken salad sandwich. Now, to be fair to the
50:13
Speaker 2: state of Delaware, it is that is not like I
50:16
Speaker 2: lived there for many, many years. And I've never known
50:19
Speaker 2: that to be the food of Delaware. Delaware has a
50:22
Speaker 2: lot of really great restaurants, you know, because it is
50:25
Speaker 2: adjacent to Philadelphia. It is a place where cheesesteaks and
50:28
Speaker 2: hoagies predominate and subs. Delaware is a great state. I
50:32
Speaker 2: don't know what sort of case I can make for it,
50:34
Speaker 2: but it gave us Joe Biden. So that's good.
50:38
Speaker 1: It did. Delaware did give us Joe Biden. So there's that.
50:41
Speaker 1: Forget about the food. Dan, the last question I'm just
50:43
Speaker 1: going to go ahead and answer. It's from Lisa from Facebook.
50:47
Speaker 1: And she asks, who would win in a dance-off between
50:50
Speaker 1: me and you? And the answer is everyone who didn't
50:53
Speaker 1: have to watch. I mean.
50:57
Speaker 2: I don't know that I have a great like we've
50:59
Speaker 2: been to a lot of weddings together. I was at
51:01
Speaker 2: your wedding. You were at mine.
51:02
Speaker 1: I don't know.
51:03
Speaker 2: I think it speaks to how fun those weddings were
51:05
Speaker 2: that I don't really remember your dancing, but I'm relatively
51:07
Speaker 2: confident I would lose. There would be no winners, but
51:11
Speaker 2: I would definitely be.
51:11
Speaker 1: Like I said, it's just a dance off between. I
51:14
Speaker 1: don't think anyone would want to watch that. But thank
51:15
Speaker 1: you for the question.
51:16
Speaker 2: All right.
51:17
Speaker 1: When we come back, we will have Dan's conversation on
51:20
Speaker 1: campaign experts react with political message guru and not Shanker. Osorio,
51:25
Speaker 1: it's going to be about campaign 2020 ads and the
51:27
Speaker 1: race class narrative.
51:37
Speaker 2: I've been doing a video series that breaks down ads
51:39
Speaker 2: in the 2020 election called Campaign Experts React. We're going
51:43
Speaker 2: to play our most recent episode now. The first ad
51:46
Speaker 2: we break down is very visual. If you would like
51:47
Speaker 2: to watch the ads, you can find the series at youtube.com
51:51
Speaker 2: slash crookedmedia. I have been hoping for and yearning for
51:54
Speaker 2: and tweeting about and screaming into a microphone about the
51:56
Speaker 2: need for there to be more positive ads about Joe Biden.
51:59
Speaker 3: Trump is the protagonist of our ads? I mean, honestly,
52:03
Speaker 3: are you f * * * ing kidding me?
52:06
Speaker 2: Welcome to another episode of Campaign Experts React, where we
52:09
Speaker 2: break down 2020 ads and political media, explain what the
52:11
Speaker 2: people behind them are trying to accomplish, and decide whether
52:14
Speaker 2: or not they did a good job. I'm Dan Pfeiffer,
52:16
Speaker 2: former communications director for Barack Obama. Joining me today is
52:19
Speaker 2: messaging and communications expert, Anat Shankar-Osorio, the founder of ASO
52:23
Speaker 2: Communications and host of the podcast, Words to Win By. Anat,
52:27
Speaker 2: thank you for joining us. You are actually an expert.
52:29
Speaker 2: So we are very excited to have an actual expert
52:31
Speaker 2: on Campaign Experts React. So thank you for joining us.
52:36
Speaker 2: And I was wondering before we got into these ads,
52:38
Speaker 2: you could tell our viewers what the race class narrative
52:41
Speaker 2: is and what drove you to do that work.
52:44
Speaker 3: Yeah. And first of all, thank you for having me.
52:46
Speaker 3: That's an all too kind introduction. And basically what the
52:50
Speaker 3: race class narrative is, is it's a three part structure
52:55
Speaker 3: and the order really matters. Every winning race class narrative
52:59
Speaker 3: message begins in a shared value. That could sound like
53:02
Speaker 3: no matter what we look like or where we come from,
53:05
Speaker 3: most of us believe that people who work for a
53:07
Speaker 3: living ought to earn a living if you're going into
53:09
Speaker 3: a union message. Or whether we're white, black, or brown,
53:13
Speaker 3: all of us want to move through our communities without
53:15
Speaker 3: fearing for our lives or our loved ones if you
53:18
Speaker 3: are obviously about to talk about what's happening presently with
53:21
Speaker 3: the protests. And then it moves second to a statement
53:26
Speaker 3: of the problem. And the way that we state the
53:28
Speaker 3: problem is by talking about deliberate division. What that sounds
53:32
Speaker 3: like in language could be, but today a wealthy and
53:36
Speaker 3: powerful few divide us from each other based on what
53:39
Speaker 3: we look like or where we live. So we don't
53:41
Speaker 3: join together to demand the healthcare all our families need,
53:44
Speaker 3: if that's what you're talking about. And then thirdly, it
53:47
Speaker 3: comes to a full circle with an insistence on cross-racial solidarity.
53:52
Speaker 3: So that could sound like By joining together across race
53:55
Speaker 3: and across place, we can make this a place where
53:57
Speaker 3: freedom is for everyone. Keith Ellison certainly uses this message.
54:01
Speaker 3: Elizabeth Warren notably would use it. AOC does versions of it.
54:06
Speaker 5: And I'm proud to have been fighting for systemic solutions
54:09
Speaker 5: like Medicare for All, a federal jobs guarantee, and the
54:13
Speaker 5: end to mass incarceration. Today is a big day for
54:17
Speaker 5: people who have been left behind.
54:19
Speaker 3: One of the ads we're going to be talking about
54:21
Speaker 3: is the first time I've seen Biden do it, at
54:24
Speaker 3: least in a sort of marquee ad kind of way.
54:27
Speaker 2: That is a professional segue right there. Let's start with
54:31
Speaker 2: our first ad, which is from Black Visions Collective, which
54:34
Speaker 2: is one of the ads that you suggested.
54:59
Speaker 3: Full disclosure, my team, we made that ad with Black
55:04
Speaker 3: Visions Collective. Where it showed significant inroads was in terms
55:09
Speaker 3: of changing people's perceptions about the protests, and specifically mobilizing
55:15
Speaker 3: Black voters and other people of color. That is where
55:18
Speaker 3: it really shined across all the ads that we tested.
55:21
Speaker 3: What that ad is, is it narrates Black excellence, and
55:25
Speaker 3: it narrates Black joy, and it narrates Black life. Other
55:28
Speaker 3: than the one image of the woman receiving the respirator.
55:32
Speaker 2: It.
55:34
Speaker 3: Is not a harms and horrors ad. And one of
55:36
Speaker 3: the most important findings that I've hammered through my career,
55:40
Speaker 3: I first saw this with work that I did in
55:43
Speaker 3: Australia on people seeking asylum in 2015, is that when
55:47
Speaker 3: we depict harms and horrors, so specifically in that case,
55:50
Speaker 3: when we showed images of people seeking asylum behind bars,
55:54
Speaker 3: it actually reinforced the opposition story that immigrants were animals.
55:58
Speaker 3: You can get people maybe to feel sorry for those people,
56:02
Speaker 3: which is by definition still otherizing. If you're feeling sorry
56:05
Speaker 3: for those people, that's not you. And so what's showing
56:09
Speaker 3: Black joy and Black excellence, you know, Simone Biles, people
56:12
Speaker 3: throughout a life cycle, children, babies, et cetera, women in labor,
56:16
Speaker 3: it actually creates that bridge to empathy.
56:19
Speaker 2: That ad blew me away for all the reasons you said,
56:22
Speaker 2: but also it is so important to get people's attention
56:25
Speaker 2: in this day and age, because if it's a digital ad,
56:27
Speaker 2: they're scrolling through their phone quickly, or it's a television ad,
56:30
Speaker 2: they may be about to fast forward or doing a
56:33
Speaker 2: two screen experience where you look at Instagram while the
56:36
Speaker 2: commercials come on. And so you have to cat, you
56:37
Speaker 2: have to give people's attention. And that one doesn't in
56:39
Speaker 2: so many, you know, quote unquote political ads look exactly
56:43
Speaker 2: the same and they sound exactly the same. And they
56:45
Speaker 2: sort of like announce at the beginning, don't believe what
56:48
Speaker 2: you're about to hear. This is coming from people you
56:51
Speaker 2: do not trust.
56:52
Speaker 3: It's the equivalent of when your romantic partner says to you,
56:56
Speaker 3: we need to talk. And so as soon as they
56:59
Speaker 3: say to you, we need to talk, whatever it is
57:02
Speaker 3: they were going to say, you're already like, I hate
57:06
Speaker 3: whatever it is you're going to say. So ads that
57:09
Speaker 3: look like political ads are essentially that equivalent. We are
57:13
Speaker 3: signaling to people, I'm going to talk to you about
57:16
Speaker 3: a political issue, which we know famously people abhor, right?
57:21
Speaker 3: People are like, I hate politics. I don't like politics.
57:23
Speaker 3: I don't like talking about politics. So we tip our
57:25
Speaker 3: hand and then we start talking to them.
57:28
Speaker 2: You are not going to believe what the producers have
57:29
Speaker 2: put on my script. And in fact, this is so stupid,
57:32
Speaker 2: I can't even read it. But it's so bad. They
57:37
Speaker 2: want me to say, quote, the data is in. And
57:41
Speaker 2: that when I say, quote, smash that subscribe button, people
57:44
Speaker 2: are more likely to subscribe to this channel. Subscribe to
57:47
Speaker 2: smash something, subscribe to something, I don't know. The next
57:49
Speaker 2: ad we're going to look at, as you previewed, is
57:51
Speaker 2: an ad from Joe Biden's campaign.
57:57
Speaker 4: The country is crying out for leadership, leadership that can
58:00
Speaker 4: unite us, leadership that brings us together. I look at
58:04
Speaker 4: the presidency as a very big job, and nobody will
58:09
Speaker 4: get it right every.
58:10
Speaker 2: Time, and I won't either.
58:12
Speaker 4: But I promise you this, I won't traffic in fear
58:15
Speaker 4: and division. I won't fan the flames of hate. I'll
58:20
Speaker 4: seek to heal the racial wounds that have long plagued
58:23
Speaker 4: our country, not use them for political gain. I'll do
58:28
Speaker 4: my job, and I will take responsibility. I won't blame others.
58:32
Speaker 4: I promise you, this job is not about me. It's
58:35
Speaker 4: about you. It's about us. To build a better future,
58:40
Speaker 4: that's what America does.
58:41
Speaker 2: We build the future.
58:42
Speaker 4: It may, in fact, be the most American thing to do.
58:46
Speaker 4: This is the United States of America. There's never been
58:49
Speaker 4: anything we've been unable to do when we set our
58:52
Speaker 4: mind to do it, and we've done it together. I'm
58:54
Speaker 4: Joe Biden, and I approve this message.
58:57
Speaker 2: So what was your reaction to how Biden used the
58:59
Speaker 2: race class narrative in that ad? And why do you
59:01
Speaker 2: think it works?
59:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't just think it works. I actually just
59:05
Speaker 3: completed a test of it. It's one of the most
59:08
Speaker 3: effective ads. in terms of a high degree of statistical
59:12
Speaker 3: significance across a broad swath of the electorate, especially moderates,
59:18
Speaker 3: at moving people away from Trump and toward Biden. One
59:22
Speaker 3: of the most interesting things about it is that it
59:24
Speaker 3: doesn't name Trump. It does actually show images of Trump.
59:29
Speaker 3: But if you follow the script, Trump is never named.
59:32
Speaker 3: And the way that it narrates the evil that he
59:36
Speaker 3: does is fanning the flames of hatred, is deliberate division.
59:40
Speaker 3: The other thing that it does really fascinatingly, it actually
59:43
Speaker 3: says almost nothing about Joe Biden's resume. It is a
59:46
Speaker 3: pro-Biden ad that doesn't present us with, you know, I
59:49
Speaker 3: did this and I accomplished that, nor does it really
59:52
Speaker 3: say much about his personal characteristics. What it does is
59:56
Speaker 3: it focuses in on the job of the presidency itself.
1:00:00
Speaker 3: So interestingly, the discourse isn't so much about who Biden is.
1:00:05
Speaker 3: It's about what the task at hand is.
1:00:08
Speaker 2: I have been hoping for and yearning for and tweeting
1:00:10
Speaker 2: about and screaming into a microphone about the need for
1:00:13
Speaker 2: there to be more positive ads about Joe Biden. This
1:00:15
Speaker 2: isn't really about the Biden campaign, but just progressive generally
1:00:18
Speaker 2: need to help define Biden before Trump defines Biden. And
1:00:21
Speaker 2: so this is a positive Biden ad. Second, The best
1:00:24
Speaker 2: positive ads are implicit, if not nearly explicit contrast with
1:00:29
Speaker 2: the opponent. This is an ad that is positive for Biden,
1:00:31
Speaker 2: but it's really about Trump and why Biden is his
1:00:33
Speaker 2: solution to that. And the third reason why I love
1:00:35
Speaker 2: this ad is I remember when Biden announced his campaign,
1:00:38
Speaker 2: he talked about healing the soul of the country. And
1:00:40
Speaker 2: that felt to me a little off the moment when
1:00:44
Speaker 2: it happened, right? Where it's sort of like we were
1:00:46
Speaker 2: going to bring Republicans and Democrats together and Lindsey Graham
1:00:49
Speaker 2: and Mitch McConnell and everything would be better post-Trump. And
1:00:52
Speaker 2: that's just not my view of politics and not my
1:00:54
Speaker 2: view of the Republican Party. But when healing the soul
1:00:57
Speaker 2: of the country is actually about the soul of a
1:00:59
Speaker 2: divided country in this moment, as an antidote to Trumpism
1:01:03
Speaker 2: and what Trumpism has wrought, I think it works. And
1:01:05
Speaker 2: so I thought it was an excellent ad that was
1:01:08
Speaker 2: authentic to what is best about Biden.
1:01:10
Speaker 3: It offers an encapsulating metaphor at the end. So this
1:01:15
Speaker 3: build a better future. I think that claiming this future,
1:01:18
Speaker 3: even in this tenuous time where people are feeling rightly, really,
1:01:22
Speaker 3: really anxious and scared is incredibly important, especially when you
1:01:27
Speaker 3: consider that held up in contrast to make America great again.
1:01:31
Speaker 3: The beautiful tomorrow that Republicans present, that Trump represents is nostalgia,
1:01:36
Speaker 3: which requires no imagination. All you have to do is,
1:01:40
Speaker 3: is think, oh, I've seen that before on a poster,
1:01:43
Speaker 3: or I've seen that before in a TV show. Absolute bullshit,
1:01:48
Speaker 3: but easy to conjure in your mind. One of the
1:01:51
Speaker 3: hardest things about progressive messaging is it needs to provide
1:01:55
Speaker 3: a sense of that beautiful tomorrow. And that is where
1:01:59
Speaker 3: being on the left is just really, really hard. We've
1:02:03
Speaker 3: never lived in an America with racial equality. We've never
1:02:07
Speaker 3: lived in an America where working people actually had a
1:02:11
Speaker 3: fair return on their work. But we have to manufacture
1:02:14
Speaker 3: that out of pure imagination.
1:02:16
Speaker 2: The last thing we're going to look at is from
1:02:18
Speaker 2: Republican voters against Trump, which is yet another super PAC
1:02:21
Speaker 2: started by never Trump Republican consultants.
1:02:29
Speaker 1: I can't breathe.
1:02:30
Speaker 2: I can't breathe.
1:02:32
Speaker 6: Where is the president in a time of national emergency?
1:02:34
Speaker 2: Hiding.
1:02:38
Speaker 6: Hiding in his security bunker. Watching his shows.
1:02:41
Speaker 2: Afraid.
1:02:43
Speaker 3: Alone.
1:02:44
Speaker 6: Not a leader.
1:02:45
Speaker 2: Supposing you brought the light inside the body.
1:02:48
Speaker 6: Not a president. Just a scared, incompetent.
1:02:51
Speaker 2: Within a couple of days, it's going to be down
1:02:53
Speaker 2: to close to zero.
1:02:55
Speaker 6: Embarrassment. You know that. Those who have worked with him
1:03:00
Speaker 6: know that.
1:03:01
Speaker 2: The former defense secretary, James Mattis, accusing President Trump of
1:03:04
Speaker 2: being a threat to the Constitution.
1:03:06
Speaker 6: Our allies know that. And our enemies know that. Everyone
1:03:12
Speaker 6: knows that. It's time for a competent president. Let's elect one.
1:03:23
Speaker 2: We picked this ad for a couple of reasons.
1:03:25
Speaker 6: One.
1:03:27
Speaker 2: is that it is different than a lot of the
1:03:30
Speaker 2: ads we've seen recently. There's been this trend, particularly since
1:03:36
Speaker 2: the Trump administration ordered the violent clearing of peaceful protests
1:03:39
Speaker 2: from Lafayette Square for that photo op, like a real
1:03:42
Speaker 2: sort of resurgence in ads and political videos that depict
1:03:45
Speaker 2: Trump as an authoritarian. And this one takes the opposite.
1:03:49
Speaker 2: And it, I think, does it in a relatively clever way.
1:03:54
Speaker 2: But I'm curious to get your take on the ad.
1:03:56
Speaker 3: So if you actually look into soft Trump supporters, people
1:04:00
Speaker 3: are on the fence, people are still with him, but
1:04:02
Speaker 3: not sure, et cetera. When you look at what is
1:04:05
Speaker 3: that source of attraction, it pretty much boils down to
1:04:09
Speaker 3: he's not politic, he's not PC, he makes decisive decisions,
1:04:14
Speaker 3: he's strong. If you understand that that's the Gordian knot
1:04:19
Speaker 3: you need to untie for the people who are still movable,
1:04:22
Speaker 3: then why? Why would you attempt to attack Trump by
1:04:30
Speaker 3: calling him an authoritarian strongman? You are actually feeding into
1:04:36
Speaker 3: the source of attraction, which, you know, you don't understand.
1:04:39
Speaker 3: I don't understand. But some people hold. Instead, what we
1:04:43
Speaker 3: see is that the mode of attacking Trump that actually
1:04:47
Speaker 3: is most effective is through this lens of a weak loser.
1:04:52
Speaker 3: This idea that he is afraid he is weak. He
1:04:56
Speaker 3: has no power.
1:04:57
Speaker 2: When I first saw that ad, my initial take was
1:05:03
Speaker 2: that one, the best Republican ad makers are working to
1:05:06
Speaker 2: defeat Trump because those ads are better just from a
1:05:08
Speaker 2: pure craftsmanship point than any of the pro-Trump ads I've seen.
1:05:12
Speaker 2: But also that I thought it was one of another
1:05:17
Speaker 2: one of these ads that the Republicans like the Lincoln
1:05:18
Speaker 2: Project are doing. They're designed almost entirely to get Trump
1:05:23
Speaker 2: to react. So that he tweets and then they raise
1:05:26
Speaker 2: a bunch more money and they throw him off his game,
1:05:30
Speaker 2: which I think has some modicum amount of value. The
1:05:33
Speaker 2: way you say it, it actually serves probably two purposes.
1:05:35
Speaker 2: It probably drives Trump insane because he obviously knows he's
1:05:38
Speaker 2: weak and a loser and does not like to be
1:05:40
Speaker 2: called a weak loser, but is influential with voters. Now,
1:05:43
Speaker 2: when you sort of think about the task for defeating Trump,
1:05:47
Speaker 2: it involves two things, right? There's some group of voters
1:05:50
Speaker 2: who are soft Trump that we need to get. And
1:05:53
Speaker 2: then there's some group of people who did not vote
1:05:55
Speaker 2: in 2016 that Biden needs to persuade to get to him.
1:05:59
Speaker 2: Do you think the weak loser message works best with
1:06:01
Speaker 2: both of those compared to the authoritarian message?
1:06:04
Speaker 3: Yeah. If you've decided you're going to talk about Trump,
1:06:10
Speaker 3: what I actually think works best is that you not
1:06:13
Speaker 3: talk about Trump. I think that endless discourse about Trump
1:06:16
Speaker 3: is how we got Trump.
1:06:17
Speaker 2: I need to mention that to our podcast producers because
1:06:19
Speaker 2: that's a large part of what we do every week.
1:06:22
Speaker 3: We've rendered this person the storyline. We've rendered this person
1:06:25
Speaker 3: the main character. And that is bullshit. I mean, we
1:06:30
Speaker 3: are living in a moment in which an incredible organized
1:06:35
Speaker 3: group of Black leaders across key states are literally risking
1:06:39
Speaker 3: their lives to go and confront a brutal police state.
1:06:45
Speaker 3: And And Trump is the protagonist of our ads? I mean, honestly,
1:06:49
Speaker 3: are you fucking kidding me? Like, there are actual heroes
1:06:54
Speaker 3: doing work to make America what it pretends to be
1:06:59
Speaker 3: and what it wants to be and what I have
1:07:02
Speaker 3: to believe, perhaps because I'm pathologically optimistic, it has the
1:07:05
Speaker 3: opportunity to be. And We're not talking about them. We're
1:07:09
Speaker 3: not putting them at the forefront of our ads. As
1:07:12
Speaker 3: many people have remarked, Martin Luther King did not get
1:07:15
Speaker 3: famous for saying, I have a complaint, nor did he
1:07:17
Speaker 3: get famous for saying, I have a multi-bulleted list of
1:07:20
Speaker 3: policy proposals. There has to actually be a dream. You
1:07:23
Speaker 3: have to turn people out for something.
1:07:26
Speaker 2: That is a very, very powerful message that I hope
1:07:30
Speaker 2: all of our candidates, our campaigns here. Anat, thank you
1:07:33
Speaker 2: so much for joining us. It was so much fun
1:07:35
Speaker 2: to talk to you. And Hopefully we can talk again
1:07:37
Speaker 2: before this election's over. Awesome.
1:07:39
Speaker 3: Thank you.
1:07:45
Speaker 1: Thanks to Anat for joining Dan and I hope everyone
1:07:49
Speaker 1: has a happy and safe July 4th. Wear that mask,
1:07:55
Speaker 1: stay home, you know, and we'll talk to you next week.
1:07:59
Speaker 2: Bye everyone.
1:08:00
Speaker 1: Bye. Pod Save America is a product of Crooked Media.
1:08:11
Speaker 1: The executive producer is Michael Martinez. Our assistant producer is
1:08:15
Speaker 1: Jordan Waller. It's mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle
1:08:18
Speaker 1: Seglin is our sound engineer. Thanks to Tanya Somenator, Katie Long,
1:08:21
Speaker 1: Roman Papadimitriou, Caroline Reston, and Elisa Gutierrez for production support.
1:08:26
Speaker 1: And to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Nar Melkonian, Yale Freed,
1:08:29
Speaker 1: and Milo Kim, who film and upload these episodes as
1:08:32
Speaker 1: videos every week.