Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 135 - 10/7/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 135 - 10/7/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 135 of the All Systems Go Sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Monday, a new week begins as we continue to grind through
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the early stages of the month of October.
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My favorite time of year because if you're like me and you live
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in New England, the leaves are changing, it's getting a little
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bit cooler, starting to see pumpkins and Halloween
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decorations on people's front yards and on their stoop.
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So it's a great time here to be in New England, but it's even
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better time to be betting on sports because we are coming off
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an epic weekend. Guys 8 and one nearly went nine
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and O if not for the those pesky Pittsburgh Steelers who gave it
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up on 1/4 and goal. Late to the Cowboys, but really
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a great weekend overall. 8 and 1 + 5.4 units.
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You love to see it on Saturday. A clean sweep, bust out the
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brooms, UFC back on track. Remember, we won twelve
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straight, lost two straight. Now we're back to our winning
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ways as Buckley had a huge hit for us.
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Big youth advantage, low bets, higher dollars, good sharp
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reverse line move. And he delivered one of the most
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violent knockout blows that I've seen in a long time.
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So poor, poor Stevie Thompson wonder boy.
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But luckily for us, Buckley got a win in parting in the UFC.
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And then a great day at college football.
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Take Me Home Country Roads, West Virginia, boy do we beat the
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closing line. Got the 3 1/2, I think that
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closed 2 1/2. They rolled out, right?
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Shenandoah River, Washington, getting it done, unranked, home
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favors ranked opponent. We love that system match.
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And then Minnesota and Cal, both big dogs who probably both
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should one out right. Cal ended up losing at the very
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end by a point, but remember, we were getting 10 1/2 and
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Minnesota got it done against USC.
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So a fantastic Saturday busting out the brooms, then a good
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Sunday, three and one Denver Broncos, Houston Texans.
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That was a sweat, but they came through with a long walk off
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field goal. And then the Minnesota Vikings
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also were a great head. And Speaking of the Vikings,
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which were a international series favorite.
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I'm looking toward the international series London
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Games for this week and I'm thinking we play the same system
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match. We bet it right now.
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So I will mention that here in a second.
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And again, eight and one. I was getting greedy trying to
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go 9 and O, but of course the Steelers, I could not get it
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done, blew it there late against the Cowboys.
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But I will take 8 and 1 + 5 four units any day of the week.
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I also want to thank everyone for tuning into the live stream
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this weekend. If you are not aware of it #1
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myself and James Santori usually do the live stream hosted by
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Rhythm Week, it's called Rhythm Sunday sweats.
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We'll go over all the system matches, late movement.
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We'll take some questions. We'll talk about player props.
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We had another great stream yesterday.
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James couldn't make it. He was too hungover at a
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bachelor party in Key West. By the way, hope everyone is
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safe and doing OK in Florida as another big hurricane bears down
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on Florida. And of course, we've seen
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terrible devastation in North Carolina.
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So everyone in the southeastern portion of the United States,
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hope you're staying safe. But we did have my buddy Sam
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Wagman fill in and had a great live stream yesterday.
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So many of you have tuned in and I appreciate that very much.
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But if you didn't know, every Sunday, 11:00 AM Eastern Time on
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the dot, 11:00 AM to noon will be the live stream, which you
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can TuneIn and watch on Twitter or X, whatever you want to call
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it. But it'll be live stream every
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Sunday. And I love seeing you guys
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there. I love seeing familiar faces and
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in different names and answering some great questions.
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Always have fun with that. So overall, guys, great weekend.
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And again, whether you're 8 and one over the weekend or 1:00 and
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8:00, I always try to mention this, whether you're whether
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you're good or bad, up or down, when you're really hot, you're
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never as hot as you think. When you're really cold, you're
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never as cold as you think. You're always somewhere in the
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middle. So up, down, treading water, the
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process never changes. Luckily for us, the the good
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challenge today is to post another winning day.
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Obviously, if it was a bad weekend, the challenge would be
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to get back in the green. So I'm looking forward to a big
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Monday here. Now turn the page.
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I do have a three pack of sweats for you guys, including a player
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prop and a side on Monday Night Football Saints and chiefs, as
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well as a play and a Major League Baseball playoff game.
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I'm looking for a lower scoring game this one.
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So I'll tell you what that is in one second and then I do have
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one NFL bet that I bet immediately.
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I said, hey, I've seen this movie before Deja vu.
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Let's let's play this one before it moves too much.
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So do have a money line bet for you in the NFL, which you might
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want to target sooner rather than later.
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But without further ado, let's get to our plays here for
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tonight. So let's keep the good vibes
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going with the NFL and focus on a big showdown tonight, 8:15 PM
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Eastern Time between the New Orleans Saints and the Kansas
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City Chiefs. Now going into this one, we have
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the Saints two and two started 2 and O.
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Now they've dropped two straight just fell to the Falcons. 2624
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did cover however, as a three-point Rd. dog.
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Meanwhile, the Chiefs 4 and O remain undefeated.
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Only the Chiefs and the aforementioned Vikes are winless
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are undefeated teams here as at this point in the season.
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They just took down the Charger 17 to 10 last week, but they
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pushed as a 7 point Rd. favorite.
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So what are we seeing across the board here?
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Well, from start to not finish. Finish should be when the line
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closes tonight at 8:15. But from start to now all moves
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in between all movement liability on the New Orleans
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Saints. This game opened with Kansas
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City listed as high as a 6 1/2 point home favorite.
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And right off the bat, when this line opens after all the games
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closed from last week in the new openers for the upcoming week
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were released. Immediate move was toward New
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Orleans plus 6 1/2. Got down to six now got down to
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5 1/2 and we're pretty much 5 1/2 across the board, which some
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people say is no man's land in a meaningless number.
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I would argue it actually is important.
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Don't have to remind you guys too far ago, but remember that
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game Dallas Cowboys and the G men.
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G men were plus 5 1/2. Brandon Aubrey misses that kick
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we cover with the five and a half they lose by 5.
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So I think it is an important number here with obviously, you
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know, the extra points being moved back and maybe missed
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kicks. Maybe the five and half is more
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important than it used to be. But anyway, all movement toward
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New Orleans now, some shops even got down to five briefly
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throughout the week. So pretty much all movement
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liability toward New Orleans. This line never has gotten back
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towards 6 and open 6 and half and never got to seven.
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It's been all New Orleans Saints betting.
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Now, to me, this is a pro and Joe Bettswood.
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The one thing that is keeping me from calling this, you know, a
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quote, UN quote, blueprint play or a perfect play is that New
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Orleans is quote UN quote the public side, but they're that
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they're not that lopsided. So it's not like the Saints are
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getting 7580% of bets right now. They're getting around 60% of
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bets, 64% of dollars. So as a contrarian better, I
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don't like being on the 60% side, but to me it's more of a
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pro and Joe bet split. So a lot of times you hear, you
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know, some commentary about, you know, interpreting line moves
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and bet splits and you'll hear like the pros versus Joe's.
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It's always usually pros versus Joe's.
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It's not always pros and joes. So typically you'll see, you
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know, all the drunk guys at the bar on team A wise guys like the
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other side, they're on team B. However, sometimes it just so
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happens that both the betting public and the wise guys are on
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the same side. And that's what I'm looking at
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here. Because to me, the biggest thing
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is the line move because again, odds makers are moving numbers
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based on respected money. They're not moving numbers based
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on lopsided public betting. They're taking positions based
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on where the respected money's at.
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So the fact that you saw New Orleans go 6 1/2 to 5 1/2,
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that's pretty clear to me that wise guys are on New Orleans
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now. 60% bet, 62% money, somewhere around there.
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That's just telling me it's slight public support, but also
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respected sharp action. Now, tons of system matches
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around New Orleans right now. If you look at these big dogs
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getting 5 1/2 points or more, it's been a ridiculous system.
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And if we watch the live stream yesterday, the Arizona Cardinals
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were kind of a pretty hard lean for me or I didn't make it an
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official bet on the pod, but the Cardinals were getting 7 1/2 at
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San Fran. They won outright.
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The Giants got 7 at Seattle, they won outright.
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This has been the angle that's really, really cashed quite a
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bit so far this year. When you are a dog, quote UN
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quote, big dog. Not talking about the the
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Chihuahuas, the plus ones, the Jack Russell Terriers, you know,
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the King Cavaliers, those plus one plus twos.
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I'm talking about the big pups, the big Bernie's mountain dogs,
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the big, the big Huskies, you know, the big Beethoven dogs,
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that those dogs that are getting 5 1/2 points or more, they're
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now 19 and four against the spread this year, 19 and four
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against the spread, 83%. Unbelievable.
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So that's the spot that the Saints are in tonight.
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That's kind of the biggest system match.
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Again, big dogs 5 1/2 or more, covering 83% of the time this
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year. But let's dig a little bit
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deeper. Classic Rd. dogs.
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Rd. dogs are typically a contrarian play against Saints.
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Aren't, you know, quote UN quote contrarian because they're
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getting 60%. To be contrarian, you
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technically need to be 49 percent or less.
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But Rd. dogs are typically a bet against the public play because
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the public loves favorites and the public loves home teams.
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Rd. dogs are 30 and 23 against the spread this year, 57%, and
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that's not an aberration. Since 2018, they're around 54%,
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almost 55% ATS. So it's been a good angle not
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only this year, but historically.
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Derek Carr, say what you want about Derek Carr, but he's been
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good as a road dog. He's 2 and O against the spread
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this year as a road dog. He's 34 and 23 ATS in his career
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as a road dog, 60% prime time dogs, 56% ATS since 2020.
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So it's been an angle that we've loved for many years at this
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point. And then Patrick Mahomes, 21 and
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25 against the spread, 46% as a home favorite.
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That's a big minus number. So typically you see Mahomes win
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these games, but not always covering.
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Now aside from all those system matches, the line move toward
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New Orleans, the pro and Joe Bet split.
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Another big angle here is just a classic buy low, sell high.
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You're buying low in New Orleans because they've lost two
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straight. You're selling high on Kansas
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City because they're four and O and they're undefeated.
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So just from the standpoint of which team is being undervalued
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New Orleans and which team is being overvalued Kansas City, I
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always want to be on that undervalued buy low side and I
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always want to be against that overvalued sell high side.
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Another angle here is no Rashi Rice.
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So this guy obviously is, I would argue their best receiver
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outside of, you know, Travis Kelsey and he really is a
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dynamic component of their offense.
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He's out. I think he tore his ACL or he's
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at least out four weeks, but he's going to be out a while.
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He got hurt in the Chargers game.
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So you also don't have Rashi Rice.
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The total. It's it's death taxes and
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another under nothing for me. I didn't play it, but I would
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lean under it. Open 46, it's down to 43, 72% of
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bets are going over, yet the total fell only 28%.
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Bets with 46% money is on the under.
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Primetime unders 9 and eight this year, they're 60% actually
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since 2019. And you do have one the under or
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the total falls at least half point.
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Take the under, that's 56% since 2021.
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So you add it all up here guys, again, it has the total has
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fallen quite a bit. I'll go under nothing but my one
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official bet here is the side I'm going to take the points
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with New Orleans. So give me the Saints plus 5 1/2
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good sharp line move tons of system matches the number one
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dog spot those dogs 5 1/2 or more again, 19 and four against
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the spread. So I'm taking the points here
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with the Saints and I would love between now and kick off to see
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all these five and a halfs. I want to I want to see them get
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down to five. You know, if for some reason and
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there are a lot of books that are juicing up the New Orleans
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side plus 5 1/2 -, 115. So it looks like that's kind of
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the direction that it's moving. If somehow it rose back up to
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six, that would be a bad sign for New Orleans.
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But as long as we're moving, you know, staying the same or moving
12:01
toward the Saints again, you'd love to see those hooks
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evaporate and get down to 5. But I'm going to take that that
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5 1/2 right now. Actually bet it earlier this
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morning. And again, if there's a
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situation where you lose by 5 like that Giants game against
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the against the Cowboys, it could be critical there with the
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hook. So give me the Saints plus 5
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1/2. Now I do have one prop bet for
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you from our friends at Rhythm. I'm looking at Noah Gray now
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going into it. So I'm on Noah Gray over 20 1/2
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receiving yards. You might be able to find a 19
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1/2 over at -120. But before I give you the
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breakdown, let me give you my thought process here with no
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Rashi Rice. What, how does that affect these
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wide receivers for Kansas City? So obviously he's the most
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dynamic. You know, pass catcher Xavier
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Worthy is the fastest, but Rashi Rice is really your biggest
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playmaker. Now that he's no longer in the
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picture, where do these targets go?
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You know, who does who, who benefits from Rashi Rice not
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playing anymore? And Noah Gray is a guy that
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could benefit. And he fits right into our
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category of kind of lesser known players, second tier players,
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not household names, not a guy that's going to get a ton of,
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you know, betting love like a Alvin Kamara or a, you know,
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Travis Kelsey. I was looking at kind of an
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e-mail that I got from my buddy John Ewing.
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And it was like basically the top five top 10 prop bets
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tonight. They're all Mahomes, Kamara,
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Kelsey. Like, no, there's no one who
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wants to play Noah Gray. But Noah Gray had four catches
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for 40 yards last week against the Chargers.
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In that game, he was second in targets.
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He was tied with Worthy with four.
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Overall, only Travis Kelsey had more and he could get a
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favorable match up tonight because if you're the Saints,
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you could maybe think about the Belichick approach of trying to
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take away the opposing teams best player who would be Travis
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Kelsey. So if Kelsey is, you know, an
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emphasis from the defensive standpoint and maybe that's the
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the match up or the focus of the New Orleans defense.
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Does Noah Gray look at some really good matchups where he's
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one-on-one he's overlooked. Maybe he's targeted a little bit
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more. You know, if Mahomes, you know,
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he's, he's going to, he's going to throw to the guy who's open.
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So I think that could benefit Noah Gray.
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And then the cherry on top with Noah Gray is that if you look at
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his betting market #20 1/2 again, you might find it.
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I believe DraftKings was over 19 1/2 -, 120, but it's mostly 20
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1/2's. But aside from the again, more
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used utilizing the offense, you know, Rashi Rice not being
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there, the trickle down effect benefiting Noah Gray.
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But the cherry on top is that when I popped open my Rhythm
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app, Rhythm is predicting 39.2 receiving yards for Noah Gray.
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So we are looking at a 19 yard discrepancy between the betting
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market and what Rhythm is predicting.
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That looks pretty good to me. Guys.
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I'm going to go with Noah Gray over 20 1/2 receiving yards.
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Again, Rhythm is predicting 39.2.
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And I just wanted to mention this.
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I forgot to mention it. With the Saints taking the plus
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5 1/2, I have a Rhythm model that says the Saint should be
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plus 2.5 and another rhythm model where they should be plus
15:03
3.9. So even if you go with the 3.9,
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the, you know, the bigger number they lose by, you know, 4 points
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basically, you're still covering the five and a half.
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So give me Saints plus 5 1/2 and give me Noah Gray, the backup
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tight end, to go over 20 1/2 receiving yards.
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Now over to some Major League Baseball big match up here in
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New York as we have the Yankees playing host to the Kansas City
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Royals. This is Game 2 of the American
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League Division Series. The Yankees are up one nothing.
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They won the first game six to five.
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So what have we seen across the market here?
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Well, Yankees are still a public play.
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They're getting around 65% of bets.
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Line hasn't moved too much. They open around -140 -, 150.
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They're kind of still in that ballpark.
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But I'm going to focus on the total here.
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And I'm going to root for a lower scoring game.
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I'm going to go Yankees, Royals under 7 1/2.
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Now, the first thing I notice is that some books opened at 8 and
15:58
immediately, like within the, you know, flick of a rest here,
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you know, kind of snap your fingers.
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Those eights were like literally gone instantaneously and got
16:07
down to 7 1/2. So that tells me that when wise
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guys had this game lined up, they said to themselves, hey, an
16:13
8:00 is way too high. Let's hit that immediately.
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And again, the public, there's a lot of differences between how
16:17
public betters approach games and how wise guys approach
16:20
games. You know, the public usually
16:22
bets closer to game time. Wise guys want to bet it
16:25
immediately. They're ready to go.
16:26
They know when these numbers open, they have their own power
16:28
ratings ready, ready to rock. And if they see a discrepancy,
16:31
even though the limits are low, they're going to hit it
16:33
immediately. So typically you see immediate
16:35
moves driven mostly by respected betters.
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So the 8 immediately got down to 7 1/2.
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And now if we look at the juice, all the juice is really on the
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under 7 1/2, under -115 seven and a half under.
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I see a -, 120 all liability is toward this under.
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And that's really notable because if you look at the bet
16:54
splits from DraftKings, 67% of bets are going over.
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They saw game one, six to five, game eleven runs were scored.
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You know, you could cut off a few of those runs and just say,
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hey, can we get eight runs and still go over that number?
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But even though nearly 7 out of 10 bets are going over, the
17:12
eight got down to 7 1/2 and all the seven half is juiced under.
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So that tells me we have a lot of smart money leaning on a
17:17
lower scoring game here. The under is only getting 33% of
17:21
bets, but 60% of dollars. That's a really good low bets,
17:26
higher dollar sharp contrarian bet split.
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Obviously it's a prime time game, 7:38 PM Eastern Time on
17:32
TBS tonight. And that's another way to go.
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Contrarian bet against the public take that that unpopular
17:38
under that no one wants to play. But again, oddsmakers, you know,
17:41
kind of know that public bias toward rooting for rooting for
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runs. I totally forgot to mention the
17:47
starting pitchers here, which are important and another reason
17:49
why I like the under. But if you look at Cole Reagan's
17:52
the lefty going for the Royals. He's one and O this postseason
17:55
with an ERA of 0. He pitched a great game against
17:59
I think it was game one against Baltimore and the regular season
18:02
he was good too, 1111 and nine 3.14 ERA.
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He'll be opposed by another lefty, Carlos Rodon, who the
18:09
Yankees gave a lot of money to a couple years ago.
18:11
His first year he wasn't very good.
18:13
I think this was a second year and he pitched pretty well.
18:15
Maybe it was a second or third year, but he had a good year
18:17
overall, 16 and 93.96 ERA. But in the month of September he
18:23
was even better. He made 5 starts in September,
18:26
yet an ERA of 2.2 O and this is his first postseason start.
18:30
And that means he's very well rested.
18:32
The Yankees bullpens well rested.
18:34
So we have a couple lefties on the bump who have pitched well
18:36
this year and just for S, S and GS.
18:39
I googled and looked up batting average against left-handed
18:42
pitchers and wouldn't you know it, Yankees and KC are two of
18:45
the worst hitting teams against lefties.
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Yankees are hitting 235 against lefties.
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That's 24th in baseball. Kansas City's hitting 243
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against lefties. That's 17th in baseball.
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So it's not like these teams are, you know, top five, top ten
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against lefties. They're at the bottom half,
19:01
bottom third of baseball against left-handed pitchers.
19:04
Hopefully that's an advantage to both pitchers.
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And then couple other angles here.
19:08
KC was your 4th best under team during the regular season.
19:11
They went 89 and 68 to the under 57%.
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And if you look at when the total is 7 1/2, it can't be 8,
19:18
it can't be 7, it's got to be exactly 7 1/2.
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That means it closes at 7 1/2 when the total is 7 1/2.
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In the postseason, since 2018, the under is 41 and 2463%.
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And then one last little angle here, cherry on top, my friends
19:34
at Juice Reel, our friends at Juice Reel, I should say, you
19:37
look at this betting breakdown and go to the sharp mush
19:40
indicator. It's a good sharp mush toward
19:42
the under. It's a 13% sharp mush under bet.
19:45
That basically means that majority of the best betters in
19:48
the app are going under versus the worst betters in the app
19:51
going over. So you add it all up here, guys.
19:53
I'm going to go Yankees, KC under 7 1/2, good sharp reverse
19:58
line move, low bets, higher dollars.
20:00
Both teams have some good lefties on the bump and they
20:02
don't hit lefties very well. We got some good historical
20:04
angles here. I'm going under 7 1/2 and I got
20:08
that at -115 Kansas City and the Yankees.
20:11
Now to finish up the pod, I wanted to mention one NFL game
20:15
that caught my eye because usually we, you know, talk about
20:18
games, NFL games once, once the weekends, whether you were good,
20:23
bad, or somewhere in the middle. Turn the page, start to look at
20:25
the next week and start to at least if you don't bet anything,
20:29
you know, super far out. Like again, someone told me a
20:32
long time ago, bet favorites early, dogs late.
20:34
That's always stayed with me. But there are some games where
20:37
even if you don't bet them, you want to be have your eye on
20:39
them. You know, just so you kind of
20:40
have a feel for how it moves throughout the week.
20:42
Or there are times where you say, hey, I got a really good
20:45
system match. I'm going to play this thing
20:46
right now. So that's where I landed with
20:48
the Bears and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
20:51
This is your International Series game, so it's right back
20:54
in London here where the Jags are playing.
20:56
Chicago, of course, neutral site early 9:30 AM Eastern Time game.
21:00
And what is one thing that we took from the last game with the
21:04
Minnesota Vikings and The Jets? Well, there are a couple things.
21:07
One, from a betting standpoint is that you open Jets, a very
21:10
short favorite. The line immediately flipped to
21:12
Minnesota. Minnesota went dog to fave.
21:15
That was a money line play for us on the Vikes.
21:17
You had to sweat it late because Aaron Rodgers was going down the
21:19
field, thought maybe he could score a touchdown and win it,
21:22
but luckily he threw that pick to Stefan Gilmore.
21:25
But that was a dog to fave international fave line move.
21:29
And oh, by the way, international favorites have
21:31
crushed it. I'll give you that stat here in
21:32
a second. But I'm seeing Chicago Bears in
21:35
the same exact spot as the Vikings international dog to
21:39
fave line move. So a lot of these books open
21:41
Jags very early. Like Jags -1 immediately those
21:45
minus ones flipped to Chicago -1 when I do my normal, my weekly
21:50
hit with Stormy Bond and Tony on Visen, the money move spot that
21:53
I do every Monday to breakdown Monday Night Football.
21:55
I always talk about the game tonight and then one game that
21:58
I'm looking toward the next game.
21:59
And at that time I mentioned the Bears.
22:03
And the Bears at the time were -125 on the money line.
22:06
That was just, you know, a little bit earlier today.
22:08
It was only a few hours ago. Well, now the Bears are up to
22:11
-135 on the money line. So they went from -1 1/2 - 2
22:16
this morning to now some books at -2 - 2 1/2.
22:20
So basically the bears are in the same spot as the Vikings dog
22:24
to fave line move. Right now the bears are getting
22:28
676% of bets but 87% of dollars. And you might say, oh that's
22:33
public isn't it Josh? 76%?
22:35
Well, technically, technically it is.
22:37
We got to remember the public isn't betting these games a week
22:41
out. You know public's betting these
22:42
games later in the week, even game day much closer to to kick
22:45
off here. So that tells me that even
22:47
though it's 76% on Chicago, that's 76% of wise guys who are
22:52
targeting this game very early. Even so 76% bets 87% money.
22:57
That's a really good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
23:00
And then, oh, by the way, the cherry on top is that this is an
23:03
international series game. And I gave you guys a stat prior
23:07
to the Vikings game against The Jets.
23:09
You maybe heard me mention this step before my buddy John Ewing.
23:13
We both used to work together with Bet Labs back in the day.
23:17
He tweeted about this as well. But international favorites, let
23:20
me give it to you again because it won with the Vikings and it
23:22
only got even better. But when you are a favorite
23:25
outside of the US, it could be obviously London's the big one.
23:29
But there's been games in Germany.
23:31
We saw the, where was it, Brazil match up, You know, Mexico City.
23:36
As long as the game is outside of the US, take the chalk, take
23:40
the favorite. The cream rises to the top.
23:42
For whatever reason, favorites in international series play
23:46
since they started playing games overseas in the NFL with that
23:49
Vikings win, they're now 35 and 10.
23:52
Straight up. That is a 77% win rate.
23:57
Literally, you know, or almost 8 out of 10 times the favorite
24:01
outside of the US wins the game. And that's exactly what we saw
24:03
with the Vikings. So the Bears look just like the
24:06
Vikings to me. Dog to fave.
24:09
Good bet. Split Bears, by the way, have a
24:11
much better defense, only giving up seventeen points a game.
24:14
Jacksonville is giving up nearly 29 points per game.
24:17
Maybe that was skewed because that Buffalo blowout
24:19
International Series favorite. I love that system match.
24:22
Once I kind of learned about that a few years ago, I pretty
24:24
much play it every time. And I'm going to play it early
24:27
this week. So I already bet earlier today.
24:29
Bears money line -125 if you want to ride with me and put it
24:33
in early and then just monitor it and don't have to worry about
24:36
it, you can still get bears around -130 but again, some
24:39
shops are closer to like -140 but shop around.
24:42
You should be able to find a -, 130.
24:44
I'm going da Bears with Dhika and a hurricane with the with
24:49
the Chicago Bears. So give me bears early.
24:51
That's an early bet for me. Also tomorrow I'm going to give
24:55
you an early sharp report for college football.
24:57
And then also, did you guys know that the NHL comes back
25:00
tomorrow? So my Boston Bruins, who finally
25:03
signed Jeremy Swayman, it's a triple header tomorrow, the
25:07
Blues and the Kraken, the Bruins and the Florida Panthers,
25:10
Chicago and Utah. Yes, there's a Utah team now,
25:13
used to be the Coyotes. But tomorrow I don't know if
25:18
I'll have a bet on the NHL or not, but I am hoping to give you
25:22
guys some futures, some over under point totals.
25:25
I'm just waiting on my buddy John Ewing to give me one last
25:27
batch of data so I can see bet splits, bets in dollars for all
25:31
these futures looking at in particular points total.
25:34
So like you know, I don't know some team over 98.5 points, some
25:40
team under 79 points, .5 points, whatever the case may be.
25:45
But stay tuned because I've had a couple you guys reach out and
25:47
say, are you going to have some futures here in the NHL?
25:49
Yes, I will and also have some futures in the NBA when when
25:53
that comes around, which is pretty close here too.
25:55
But anyway, guys, that about does it for episode 135 of the
25:59
of the of the all systems go sports betting podcast powered
26:04
by rhythm. This is the part of the pod here
26:07
where we wrap things up and I start by asking a favor of you.
26:10
If you had a good weekend, if you made a couple, couple good
26:14
winning bets with the assistance of myself and the data-driven
26:17
approach, could you please do me a favor by giving this podcast a
26:21
five star review? There should be an option there
26:23
to rate and review the pod. If you're listening on Spotify
26:25
or iTunes, click that, click five stars.
26:27
That would mean a lot to me guys would help us to continue to
26:30
gain momentum, rise up the charts and the ratings.
26:33
If you want to recommend it to a buddy or click the follow
26:36
button, that'll be great as well.
26:37
Then you'll be alerted as soon as it drops each day.
26:39
But please give it a five star review.
26:41
That would mean a lot to me. Secondly, if you enjoy this
26:44
style of betting and the breakdowns that I provide each
26:47
day from a data-driven perspective, you want to learn
26:50
more about data-driven betting. And maybe you're getting in,
26:52
really getting into and fascinated by how lines open,
26:56
how they move, why they move, looking at system matches and
27:00
unranked home favour ranked opponents.
27:02
You know, whatever the case may be, flat betting, going
27:04
contrarian bets and dollars. If this style of betting appeals
27:08
to you, learning how to read and interpret the market and kind of
27:11
act as a investigator looking to see market clues and figure out
27:14
where the smart money is and how to make smart bets.
27:17
If this style of betting appeals to you and you want to learn
27:19
more about data-driven betting, guess what?
27:21
I wrote a book. Just go to Amazon.com and type
27:24
in the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
27:27
Pick one up for you. Or a friend or a buddy or
27:29
colleague or someone who maybe is in a newly legalized state or
27:33
maybe likes to bet on sports but has no freaking clue how to do
27:36
it. Or is learning to or wants to
27:38
bet on sports and doesn't know how to start.
27:40
Recommend my book, buy them a copy of my book.
27:43
It'll mean a lot to me. Guys.
27:44
It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
27:45
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
27:48
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place them in
27:50
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
27:53
a bankroll management plan, chapters on all the major
27:56
sports. It's all included in the
27:57
everything Guide to Sports bank. So pick one up And when I see
28:00
you at the book, we're going to, we're going to hang out, sweat
28:03
some games together. I'll sign my book for you.
28:05
I'll buy a beer or ginger ale. Hopefully we'll catch some
28:08
tickets together. Without further ado, before we
28:11
wrap things up with a couple more comments I wanted to
28:13
mention if you haven't done it yet, please download Rhythm and
28:17
Juice Reel, my two favorite sports betting apps.
28:19
Rhythm obviously is fantastic for their data-driven game
28:23
models and predictions as well as their player props of course.
28:26
We really enjoying the Rhythm Sunday sweats, or at least I'm
28:31
enjoying doing that every Sunday.
28:33
So we're turning a lot of new people on to Rhythm and they're
28:35
having some success, which is great.
28:37
Rhythm to me is great because you can either just blindly play
28:39
the best angles. Rhythm says this dog should be
28:42
getting 2.1 points and they're plus five in the market.
28:45
So you play them or you use the market approach and then Rhythm
28:48
as a cherry on top. A a final point of validation.
28:52
That's the way that I like to use it.
28:54
Or my other favorite sports betting app, which is Juice
28:58
Reel. Juice reel is great for a number
29:00
of different reasons. You can just follow the AI best
29:02
bet picks each day that come out at noon from Robo Jackson.
29:05
You can play the arbitrage opportunities each day by
29:08
following the recommended risk ratios.
29:11
You also get the sharp mush indicators actual dollar
29:14
breakdowns on all the games that are based on people who have
29:16
synced up their sports books to to juice reel.
29:19
But those are all features included any juice reel
29:21
membership. So I want you guys to sign up if
29:23
you haven't done it yet for both Rhythm and Juice Reel, but you
29:25
got to do it in a particular way.
29:27
You got to click that custom link that you're going to see in
29:29
the bio description of the podcast, whatever platform
29:32
you're listening on. The description for each pod
29:35
will say, for example, today it'll say an episode 135, Josh
29:38
dishes out a three pack of sweats for NFL and MLB playoffs.
29:42
Scroll below that. Right after that, you'll see
29:45
links for Juice Real and Rhythm. Click those links, get signed
29:48
up. Rhythm and Juice Real help me
29:49
win. They're going to help you win,
29:52
of course. To wrap things up, whether I see
29:54
you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode
29:57
Island, the Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
29:59
Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
30:02
Park Casino or MGM Springfield. And my neck of the woods in
30:05
Massachusetts are out in the desert where the true grinders
30:08
get down. Where Billy Walter sends his
30:09
number runners with low as soon as possible is found at the
30:12
South Point, or jumping in the stadium swimming pool cashing
30:15
big tickets at Circa, wherever it may be.
30:18
You're going to show me just a great weekend of betting, guys.
30:20
These are the weekends you live for.
30:22
These are the these are the weekends when you grind and
30:24
maybe you have a losing night or you don't have a day or a week
30:27
that you wanted. It's these big weekends that
30:30
that really, really get you excited.
30:32
So show me a Buckley UFC ticket pointing a West Virginia ticket,
30:37
a Washington Huskies ticket, Minnesota Gophers, Cal Golden
30:41
Bears, the Broncos, the Texans, the Vikings.
30:44
Flash be one of those tickets guys.
30:45
Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
30:47
you. We're going to post about the
30:48
book Sweatshark and chain plays all night long.
30:51
So wish you the best luck everyone enjoy the sweats
30:54
tonight. We got NFL, we got Major League
30:56
Baseball. Let's let's try to get two out
30:58
of these three. We got 3 bets.
31:00
Can we get two of them go 2 and one eke out a winning night.
31:03
That is our goal. But as always, stay sharp, stay
31:06
contrarian bet against the public place yourself on the
31:09
side of the house always be with the smart money never against it
31:12
will smart money when every time won't win every time but a damn
31:15
near 1 every time this weekend. And that's the thing, guys,
31:18
again, you can chip away, chip away, chip away if you're up a
31:21
unit, down a unit and then you breakthrough for a big weekend,
31:24
which is what happened to us. So will every sharp play win?
31:28
No. But here's the thing.
31:29
If they're going to win a majority of the time long term,
31:31
that's why I got a stick with the model and you get rewarded
31:33
with a big weekend. So we can do that if we can stay
31:37
betting with her head and not our heart, against the public,
31:39
with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get
31:42
that closing line value. If we can do that, I'm confident
31:45
that we can guess what we're going to be successful for its
31:47
betters. So have a great Monday night
31:49
everyone. I'll see you back at it tomorrow
31:52
for episode 136 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
31:55
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
31:59
great Monday night.