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Americans Feel Worse Than Their Wallets Look · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada,
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Speaker 1: and Mike Armstrong.
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Speaker 2: It's Friday here on the financial exchange, Chuck, Mike Tucker
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Speaker 2: all with you, and stock's kind of in just choppy trading.
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Speaker 2: The SMP just rallied about twenty points or so to
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Speaker 2: be up eighteen points, but basically it had been flat
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Speaker 2: most of the day. The Dow is up one hundred
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Speaker 2: and sixty one points, the NASDAK composite still down ninety one,
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Speaker 2: so just kind of a mixed slow day to finish
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Speaker 2: the week. Ten year Treasury catching a bit of a
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Speaker 2: bid today, so down three point two basis points to
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Speaker 2: four points sixty seven one percent. Dollar index not really
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Speaker 2: moving much on that dollar is off point oh six
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Speaker 2: percent to one oh one and twenty three cents. Uh.
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Speaker 2: You've got gold up sixteen dollars and ounce to four
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Speaker 2: thy sixty six. Crude oil West Text Intermediate back down
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Speaker 2: two sixty five a bail to eighty nine to fifty four,
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Speaker 2: reversing about third of yesterday's so some positive movement there.
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Speaker 2: Triple A national averageur gas prices up another one and
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Speaker 2: a half cents overnight to four to ten. Diesel prices
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Speaker 2: up three cents to five twenty four based on where
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Speaker 2: oil prices are, and now we're probably still heading to
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Speaker 2: around four twenty to four to twenty five nationally if
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Speaker 2: we hold in this range, So still another fifteen cents
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Speaker 2: or so to move up over the next you know,
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Speaker 2: probably by middle of next week, somewhere in that ballpark.
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Speaker 2: And that is what we have moving in markets today.
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Speaker 2: Bays in Bloomberg Opinion. Americans are richer than ever. Why
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Speaker 2: are they so angry? Uh, it's the phones. Oh, it's
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Speaker 2: all the technology. It's the phones. Like I'm sorry here,
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Speaker 2: here's the thing. Every time that we read about, like,
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Speaker 2: you know, American dissatisfaction, it can basically be summed up
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Speaker 2: with three words.
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Speaker 3: It's the phones.
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Speaker 4: Now.
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Speaker 2: It's not to say that like Americans have nothing to
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Speaker 2: complain about, but my point is there's always been something
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Speaker 2: to complain about. Like, yeah, we're complaining about this and
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Speaker 2: that today. Okay, Like a hundred years ago, it was polio.
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Speaker 2: One hundred year before that, it was you know, the
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Speaker 2: British are attacking the White House. One hundred years before that,
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Speaker 2: it was well, you know, my brother got killed exploring
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Speaker 2: the frontier. One hundred years before that, it was hey,
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Speaker 2: Jimmy's got scurvy again. What do we do Like that,
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Speaker 2: There's always been something to complain.
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Speaker 4: About, so we're just better at it. We're louder now.
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Speaker 4: Is that your point?
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Speaker 2: My point is when you're the internet sucks is my point.
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Speaker 2: It's great. I love the Internet, but too much Internet
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Speaker 2: is not good for you. You gotta get outside and
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Speaker 2: just do things. And by the way, if you want
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Speaker 2: my evidence of this, look at the last month in
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Speaker 2: America with the World.
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Speaker 3: Cup being here. Have you?
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Speaker 2: I know that, like I'm a big soccer guy and everything,
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Speaker 2: but like you'd see the videos from like people just
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Speaker 2: hanging out in every city and they're like, Wow, this
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Speaker 2: is great when people actually like hang out out in
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Speaker 2: the public spaces and go to bars and restaurants together,
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Speaker 2: And isn't this just amazing that like everyone is having
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Speaker 2: such a good time, and hey, no one's like hating
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Speaker 2: each other. Everyone's just chilling because we realize there's actually
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Speaker 2: a lot that we have in common. I think everyone's
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Speaker 2: so angry because the Internet tells us we have to
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Speaker 2: be angry.
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Speaker 5: Maybe chuck, but I'll point out that. So let's let's
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Speaker 5: ignore the University of Michigan Sentiment survey for a moment.
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Speaker 5: Since we've talked about how we think it's broken. Sure,
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Speaker 5: we also have the OECD's Consumer Confidence Yeah index, which
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Speaker 5: doesn't doesn't do the same thing, and it's pretty much
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Speaker 5: telling us the same thing that maybe not as drastic
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Speaker 5: a story, but a pretty bad story about American's confidence
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Speaker 5: on the economy and something broke during COVID here and again,
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Speaker 5: maybe it's just happy the phones react.
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Speaker 4: Well, did you not have a phone in twenty nineteen, Chuck,
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Speaker 4: Like people.
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Speaker 2: Started spending a lot more time on their phones in
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Speaker 2: twenty twenty. Like, I'm telling you, the internet has every
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Speaker 2: study out there shows that if you get rid of
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Speaker 2: people's phones, they're happier.
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Speaker 6: Yeah, because all use stuff's still expensive. Though if I
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Speaker 6: don't have a phone, it's true, But that's not what's
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Speaker 6: driving part of it.
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Speaker 3: I don't think it is. I don't think it is.
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Speaker 3: It's when you go on the internet.
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Speaker 2: There is something bad somewhere happening, especially as it relates
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Speaker 2: to the economy. There's some McDonald's that's charging forty two
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Speaker 2: dollars for a cheeseburger. There's some movie theater that makes
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Speaker 2: you pay to fit both half of your butt on
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Speaker 2: the seats.
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Speaker 5: There is, like I'm with you, Tucker. I think that
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Speaker 5: there is some combination here. I don't know that I
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Speaker 5: can blame everything on people spending more time on phones.
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Speaker 4: I think the pie right.
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Speaker 5: I think that the price change, the very rapid and
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Speaker 5: severe price change over the last five years, played a
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Speaker 5: big role in all of this.
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Speaker 3: Mike, why is this happening across incomes? Then?
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Speaker 2: Like, it's it's not just people with like low income
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Speaker 2: saying this because no, see the point even wealthy people don't.
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Speaker 4: Like high prices.
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Speaker 3: Well, they got to get over it. Man, I'm with
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Speaker 3: if you're asking me stop complaintely, Like, here's the thing.
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Speaker 3: If you make like two hundred and fifty thousand dollars
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Speaker 3: plus in America, there are six point nine billion people
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Speaker 3: on the planet that would trade places with you. True,
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Speaker 3: you gotta get over it at a certain point.
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Speaker 5: But also I'm not sure that how we talk about
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Speaker 5: things and you know, all this stuff matters because it
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Speaker 5: doesn't seem to highly correlate on voting, it doesn't seem
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Speaker 5: to highly correlate on spending. They make the case here
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Speaker 5: that hey, this is going to result in massive change
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Speaker 5: of policy towards more populist measures that are not going
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Speaker 5: to be good for anyone. I'm not sure I'm going
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Speaker 5: to see that. We're likely to see that happen, but
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Speaker 5: maybe maybe you don't.
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Speaker 3: Think we're going to see that happen.
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Speaker 4: It's already happened.
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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's happened pretty dramatically. I guess the question is
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Speaker 5: does that continue? You know what it will? Yeah, I
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Speaker 5: guess it will. We just selected mom Donnie. Yeah. So
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Speaker 5: that is the danger, folks, is by everyone being so unhappy,
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Speaker 5: they look for what were once pretty out there ideas,
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Speaker 5: and they might make us all poor. They probably will
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Speaker 5: make us all poor if we really go that route.
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Speaker 2: Like, I gotta tell you, it's in my opinion. And
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Speaker 2: again I'm not saying that there are no problems now,
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Speaker 2: like there are plenty, plenty of economic problems by.
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Speaker 5: The way, for everybody. You know, you know, seeing me
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Speaker 5: being bias against Mendonnia. It's on the right too, right,
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Speaker 5: Like tariffs are one of those populist policies that I'm
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Speaker 5: talking about.
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Speaker 4: It's both sides.
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Speaker 2: We've got it everywhere, okay, Like it's it's freaking everywhere.
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Speaker 2: And look, it's not going to be solved by price
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Speaker 2: controls and by like there is no right price for
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Speaker 2: a house, just like there's no right price for groceries,
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Speaker 2: just like there's no right price for gas. If you
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Speaker 2: think there is, then tell me then, Tucker, what's the
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Speaker 2: text line six.
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Speaker 5: One seven, six thirteen eighty five. I'm not Tucker, but
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Speaker 5: it's right in front of me.
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Speaker 2: Text that and tell me what the right price for
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Speaker 2: those goods are a home, gas, and milk. Tell me
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Speaker 2: what the right price is, not like what the current
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Speaker 2: what's the right price? And if you can do that, okay,
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Speaker 2: I'll buy it. But I there is no right price
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Speaker 2: for anything, So I gotta be honest. It's the stuff
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Speaker 2: that we're talking about when it comes to price controls
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Speaker 2: that leads to shortages, that leads to things that will
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Speaker 2: make us more unhappy.
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Speaker 5: And I'm sorry, I say tariffs will too one hund
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Speaker 5: like price controls on one side will do that, rent
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Speaker 5: control will do that.
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Speaker 4: Higher tariffs.
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Speaker 5: Yeah, if you work in the industry that's being protected,
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Speaker 5: then you will be a beneficiary. Everybody else loses on teriff.
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Speaker 2: You want people to start actually responding positively on surveys,
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Speaker 2: then if you actually want policy that's gonna do that
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Speaker 2: make it easier to do everything.
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Speaker 3: And if you want.
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Speaker 2: People just to be happier in general, get them off
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Speaker 2: the phones, like, get them off the phones, because your
9:19
Speaker 2: phone shows you one of two things. It shows you
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Speaker 2: people with better lives than you, and then you feel
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Speaker 2: like poop. And it shows you bad things happening in
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Speaker 2: the world, and then you feel like poop. Like it's
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Speaker 2: what it is.
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Speaker 3: Some place somewhere, there's someone who has more than you,
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Speaker 3: and some place somewhere there's something happening that's gonna make
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Speaker 3: you upset, And that's all you see on the phones
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Speaker 3: because that's what the algorithms show you. It's what they do.
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Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we come back, let's
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Speaker 2: talk about something more uplifting here. We'll talk about this
9:51
Speaker 2: piece from the Wall Street Journal talking about what we
9:53
Speaker 2: are seeing in terms of wages through Q one.
9:57
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Speaker 4: All right.
10:48
Speaker 6: Time for some Friday trivia here on the Financial Exchange
10:52
Speaker 6: On this day in nineteen ninety eight, Saving Private Ryan
10:56
Speaker 6: hit theaters across the country. Despite being favored to do
11:00
Speaker 6: you win the Best Picture at the Academy Awards, Saving
11:04
Speaker 6: Private Line Ryan lost in a stunning upset. Yeah, I
11:09
Speaker 6: can't believe that. So trivia question today, which movie beat
11:12
Speaker 6: Saving Private Ryan to win the nineteen ninety nine Best
11:16
Speaker 6: Picture Oscar? Once again? Which movie beat Saving Private Ryan
11:22
Speaker 6: to win the nineteen ninety nine Best Picture Oscar? Be
11:27
Speaker 6: the fifth person today to text us at six one
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Speaker 6: seven three six two thirteen eighty five with correct answer
11:33
Speaker 6: along with keyword trivia, and win a Financial Exchange Show
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Speaker 6: T shirt.
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Speaker 3: Once again.
11:37
Speaker 6: The fifth correct response to text us to the number
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Speaker 6: six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five with
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Speaker 6: the correct answer along with keyword trivia, We'll win that
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Speaker 6: T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show
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Speaker 6: dot com.
11:51
Speaker 3: Last segment.
11:52
Speaker 2: I asked, uh, hey, if anyone knows, like what the
11:55
Speaker 2: right price of certain items are text us Jeremy from
11:59
Speaker 2: the Vineyard, text what's the gap?
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Speaker 3: He thinks the right price of.
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Speaker 2: A single family home is three hundred and twenty five
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Speaker 2: thousand dollars, the right price of a gallon of milk
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Speaker 2: is three ninety nine, and the right price of regular
12:10
Speaker 2: gas is two twenty five. So I've got news, good
12:12
Speaker 2: news for Jeremy. If Jeremy can invent a time travel
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Speaker 2: machine and go back to twenty.
12:18
Speaker 3: Nineteen, he can have all those things.
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Speaker 2: But I don't think Jeremy actually like believes that like
12:25
Speaker 2: that should be the right price. Maybe he does, I
12:27
Speaker 2: don't know, but it's it's just, you know, there is
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Speaker 2: no right price for anything. It's just, hey, how do
12:35
Speaker 2: we make it?
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Speaker 1: So?
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Speaker 2: Ultimately, what we're trying to do in order to have
12:40
Speaker 2: a higher standard of living is how do we make
12:45
Speaker 2: certain certain things that we need cheaper on a relative basis?
12:51
Speaker 2: How do we how do we get more productive so
12:52
Speaker 2: that we can do more, produce more using the same inputs.
12:57
Speaker 2: The example that I love to give is, Okay, let's
13:00
Speaker 2: say that you can catch one fish a day, using
13:03
Speaker 2: your your normal rod and suddenly someone invents, you know,
13:07
Speaker 2: a new lure or a new technique where now you
13:10
Speaker 2: can catch two fish a day. Well, now you've got
13:12
Speaker 2: an extra fish, same amount of time that you've used,
13:16
Speaker 2: and you can give that extra fish or sell it
13:19
Speaker 2: to someone else so that they are not as hungry
13:21
Speaker 2: as they used to be. That additional productivity has increased
13:25
Speaker 2: the overall standard of living. That's the kind of stuff
13:28
Speaker 2: that we want to see. Yeah, the price.
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Speaker 3: They go upper, like the price may go up or down.
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Speaker 2: Like it's again, think of it this way, like if
13:37
Speaker 2: you look at cars today, Okay, they are way more
13:41
Speaker 2: expensive than they used to be.
13:43
Speaker 3: They also do a lot more than they used to.
13:45
Speaker 2: If you wanted a car that still had like windows
13:47
Speaker 2: that you know, no power windows, no power seats, uh,
13:51
Speaker 2: no air conditioning, you know, just AMFM radio like if
13:55
Speaker 2: you want, you know, no bluetooth, no beeping when you
13:58
Speaker 2: get too close to the car. If you want a
14:00
Speaker 2: car that just did that, you could probably have it
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Speaker 2: for ten grand.
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Speaker 5: Yeah, there's a company that's trying to make them right now.
14:06
Speaker 5: They are it what's it called at the truck that's
14:09
Speaker 5: just stripped down slates, right yeah, Slate, Yeah, those are
14:12
Speaker 5: those are launching what in the next six to twelve months,
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Speaker 5: I think allegedly.
14:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll see.
14:16
Speaker 5: But again, if you're hoping for prices to come down
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Speaker 5: on an actual basis, one, they almost never do.
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Speaker 1: Two.
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Speaker 5: If they do, you will not like every other feature
14:27
Speaker 5: of the economy, you won't have a job. There will
14:30
Speaker 5: be a lot of people without jobs. That's when prices
14:32
Speaker 5: come down, is when the economy sucks. So you want
14:35
Speaker 5: prices to come down on a relative basis compared to
14:37
Speaker 5: your income, not on a real basis.
14:40
Speaker 2: Now, we also got a second text from a listener
14:43
Speaker 2: as well. Oh yeah, quote trying not to be mean,
14:48
Speaker 2: but what is Mike trying to do? Anyone that is
14:52
Speaker 2: his friend should be honest with him. Do away with
14:55
Speaker 2: that silky mustache that he munches on and that haircut.
14:58
Speaker 2: What he looks so much older with these changes. He
15:02
Speaker 2: was a good looking guy before. Love to listen to
15:05
Speaker 2: the show.
15:05
Speaker 6: On the radio and watch on YouTube whenever possible, So
15:08
Speaker 6: we have not publicly addressed this on air. It's just
15:12
Speaker 6: like Mike has been in front of our cameras.
15:16
Speaker 3: Something growing on Mike.
15:17
Speaker 4: I've been getting nothing but compliments.
15:19
Speaker 3: It doesn't seem like it. In this case, I like it.
15:23
Speaker 4: I'm joking.
15:23
Speaker 5: I've been getting a lot of insults, which is kind
15:27
Speaker 5: of my favorite part of this because I love a good,
15:32
Speaker 5: well equipped insult.
15:35
Speaker 3: It's I think it's fantastic personally.
15:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the fact that you're doing to encourage
15:40
Speaker 2: biodiversity is just great. And it's it's it's good for
15:47
Speaker 2: the eventual butterfly population that you've You've got that thing.
15:51
Speaker 6: There's defensive thing in that text. I think, at least
15:54
Speaker 6: if I was in my shoes, this is the haircut
15:59
Speaker 6: since I here.
16:00
Speaker 5: Now, since they started, you are way uglier now, Mike,
16:04
Speaker 5: is what we're trying to get across. The most creative
16:07
Speaker 5: one so far was a coworker who asked me if
16:11
Speaker 5: I was going to go and tie a woman to
16:13
Speaker 5: the train tracks like Snygley Whiplash, which I liked.
16:18
Speaker 4: That's pretty solid.
16:20
Speaker 3: Like that is pretty good.
16:22
Speaker 2: Let's see what do we want to cover now? Where
16:25
Speaker 2: is here we go? Piece from the Wall Street Journal
16:28
Speaker 2: paycheck boost gives low income workers a breather. Yes, this
16:31
Speaker 2: is actually really interesting. So for the last couple of years,
16:36
Speaker 2: we've been seeing slowing wage growth in particular amongst those
16:41
Speaker 2: in the bottom twenty five percent of incomes. In fact,
16:45
Speaker 2: for Q one of this year, twenty fifth percentile incomes
16:49
Speaker 2: increased the fastest rate out of any quartile in the
16:53
Speaker 2: United States.
16:54
Speaker 5: Which there's a lot of different reasons that this is
16:56
Speaker 5: a really good metric to have economy where the lowest
17:02
Speaker 5: decile or quartile is seeing fast income growth means a
17:05
Speaker 5: few things. One, generally a sign of a tight, tight
17:08
Speaker 5: labor market, which you like to see. Two, if you're
17:12
Speaker 5: hoping for economic growth led by a consumer, if there's
17:15
Speaker 5: one consumer group that spends a lot more than it saves,
17:19
Speaker 5: it is anyone in that bottom half, and so seeing
17:23
Speaker 5: that move forward is not only an improvement for some
17:26
Speaker 5: of the poorest Americans, but it is also an indicator that, hey,
17:30
Speaker 5: labor market's tight and that.
17:31
Speaker 4: Money's going to be spent. So really a good metric.
17:35
Speaker 5: We saw this last well, the last time the labor
17:37
Speaker 5: market was really tight, right, it was twenty twenty two
17:39
Speaker 5: twenty twenty three time frame, where those incomes were rising
17:42
Speaker 5: pretty dramatically.
17:44
Speaker 4: This isn't quite on the same scale, but it does
17:48
Speaker 4: match up.
17:48
Speaker 5: With the data that we've been seeing from job creation
17:52
Speaker 5: and a relatively low turnover labor market. So I don't know,
17:57
Speaker 5: does any of this hint you as anything but good news,
18:00
Speaker 5: because I don't see any any no bad mirrors here.
18:04
Speaker 2: And in matches data, we covered a couple of weeks
18:06
Speaker 2: ago that PNC Bank they were showing the fastest spending
18:10
Speaker 2: growth coming from a lower quartile or maybe it was
18:14
Speaker 2: they might have had like it might have been like
18:15
Speaker 2: the lower third of the income spectrum. But they said, look,
18:18
Speaker 2: it's not like that group is spending down their balances.
18:22
Speaker 2: We're seeing more money coming into their bank accounts as well,
18:25
Speaker 2: and so we think this is sustainable.
18:27
Speaker 5: So it's not just it's not just the rich baby
18:31
Speaker 5: boomers that were the whole narrative for the last couple
18:33
Speaker 5: of years.
18:34
Speaker 2: Well, and my point is, like some people might say, well,
18:36
Speaker 2: you know, the Labor Department data, like who knows how
18:38
Speaker 2: accurate it is, it's being confirmed by other sources in
18:42
Speaker 2: the private sector that are saying, yeah, we're seeing the
18:45
Speaker 2: same thing too. So I do like that we're seeing
18:48
Speaker 2: that we still need more of it.
18:50
Speaker 3: And it's something.
18:52
Speaker 2: That you know obviously takes some time to you know,
18:54
Speaker 2: really you know, work its way into the system, but
18:57
Speaker 2: I do think it's something that's happening, and I do
19:01
Speaker 2: think it's good to see because you want to see
19:04
Speaker 2: broader based income and spending growth, not just Hey, the
19:08
Speaker 2: top five percenter spending and seeing their incomes growing. That
19:10
Speaker 2: doesn't do anything for, you know, the other ninety five
19:15
Speaker 2: percent of People's take a quick break here. When we return,
19:21
Speaker 2: we've got the trivia answer, and we've got Wall Street Watch.
19:38
Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day.
19:42
Speaker 1: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:48
Speaker 1: Try out full Wall Street Watch treking the stocks, pandato
19:52
Speaker 1: and the headlines driving markets so far today right here
19:55
Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:00
Speaker 6: Some more shoppy trading to close out the week with
20:02
Speaker 6: a modest rally by midday as Wall Street awaits more
20:05
Speaker 6: developments out of the Middle East. Right now, the Dow
20:08
Speaker 6: is up two thirds of a percent or three hundred
20:10
Speaker 6: and fifty three points higher, SMP five hundred up over
20:13
Speaker 6: half a percent or thirty eight points higher. Nasdaq is
20:16
Speaker 6: now flat after seeing a modest sell off in earlier trading.
20:19
Speaker 6: Russell two thousand is up about a third of a percent.
20:21
Speaker 6: Tenure Treasure reeled down four basis points at four point
20:25
Speaker 6: sixty five percent and Oil down four percent, trading at
20:28
Speaker 6: eighty eight dollars a barrel. Intel reported stronger than expected
20:32
Speaker 6: second quarter results were recorded its fastest revenue growth rate
20:35
Speaker 6: for any quarter since twenty eleven. Intel also offered an
20:39
Speaker 6: optimistic guidance. The stock is down by three percent after
20:44
Speaker 6: rallying in off hours trading. Meanwhile, American Express reported a
20:48
Speaker 6: revenue miss in the previous quarter, while its earnings came
20:50
Speaker 6: in above estimates. AMX is down by five percent. Elsewhere,
20:54
Speaker 6: oracled down by one percent after the software company into
20:58
Speaker 6: ten year agreement with the Pentagon. Verizon up by three
21:01
Speaker 6: percent after it posted a mixed earnings report for the
21:04
Speaker 6: previous quarter. It's full yer guidance did come in above
21:08
Speaker 6: expectations and breaking sports news as of two minutes ago
21:12
Speaker 6: where Lebron James has agreed with the Philadelphia seventy six
21:16
Speaker 6: ers on a two year, eight million dollar deal. I'm
21:20
Speaker 6: Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watch. And in
21:22
Speaker 6: the previous segment, we asked you the trivia question which
21:25
Speaker 6: movie beat Saving Private Ryan to win the nineteen ninety
21:28
Speaker 6: nine Best Picture Oscar. That would be Shakespeare in Love
21:33
Speaker 6: Ed from Norfolk, Mass is our winner today taking on
21:36
Speaker 6: the Financial Exchange Show t shirt. Congrats to Ed. We
21:39
Speaker 6: play trivia every day here on the Financial Exchange See
21:43
Speaker 6: complete contest rules at Financialexchange Show dot com.
21:47
Speaker 3: I gotta say Lebron looks weird in a sixers jersey.
21:51
Speaker 3: I had a feeling it was gonna go there. He's
21:53
Speaker 3: been dropping some hints the last last week or so.
21:56
Speaker 6: That's an interesting mix in Philly. Now, Yeah, it's a
22:00
Speaker 6: lot of a lot of mouths and personalities, a lot
22:03
Speaker 6: of mounse defeed yep.
22:04
Speaker 3: So yeah, it'll be uh, it'll be fun. I'll say that.
22:08
Speaker 2: Let's talk about this piece from somewhere. It's uh, Where's
22:13
Speaker 2: USA today? Didn't recognize the logo for a minute. Many
22:17
Speaker 2: Americans retire earlier than planned. They have regrets.
22:21
Speaker 5: What regrets, well, mainly about having their budgets cramped and
22:26
Speaker 5: a lot of expenses early in retirement. I think this
22:29
Speaker 5: piece is important to acknowledge that most of the time,
22:32
Speaker 5: when people retire early, it's not by choice.
22:36
Speaker 3: Agreed.
22:37
Speaker 5: Yeah, Like, I know, we talk a lot about, hey,
22:40
Speaker 5: the ability to retire early and preparing so that maybe
22:43
Speaker 5: you can do it. But I would be willing to
22:46
Speaker 5: bet that nine times out of ten it comes because
22:49
Speaker 5: of layoffs, illness, things along those lines that make it
22:54
Speaker 5: so that you can't quite make it all the way
22:56
Speaker 5: to age sixty seven.
22:57
Speaker 4: It's a very.
22:59
Speaker 5: Small percent who are able to say, yeah, I prepared
23:03
Speaker 5: myself financially and I'm ready to.
23:05
Speaker 4: Go at sixty two.
23:07
Speaker 5: Or I work for one of those employers who deems
23:10
Speaker 5: full retirement age to be as early as sixty two.
23:13
Speaker 5: Maybe I work as I see that most commonly obviously
23:16
Speaker 5: with state and federal workers, or workers in particularly taxing jobs,
23:22
Speaker 5: alignment for utility companies, things like that. The vast majority
23:27
Speaker 5: of us don't get to make that choice, and so
23:29
Speaker 5: the regret, I think for most of them is needing
23:32
Speaker 5: to scramble and stress over how am I going to
23:35
Speaker 5: support my family still while missing out on maybe three
23:40
Speaker 5: years of additional income, three years of savings. And remember
23:45
Speaker 5: when you retire earlier than anticipated, right, it is not
23:48
Speaker 5: merely the fact that I can't save an extra three years.
23:52
Speaker 5: It's that I need to spend from my savings for
23:55
Speaker 5: an extra three years. It is a compound effect there,
23:59
Speaker 5: I mean, Chuck, we always talk about it, right, If
24:02
Speaker 5: you plan on retiring before your full retirement age, ten
24:08
Speaker 5: percent of your income going into savings in all likelihood
24:11
Speaker 5: ain't gonna cut it. Yeah, Like, I know that's a
24:14
Speaker 5: good standard, and we preach that. But if your plan
24:18
Speaker 5: is to retire at fifty five or sixty and have
24:22
Speaker 5: what very well could be a thirty to forty year retirement,
24:25
Speaker 5: in that case, it's going to require a.
24:28
Speaker 4: Lot more than just standard protocol.
24:32
Speaker 5: So you know what to think about if your goal
24:35
Speaker 5: is to retire before age sixty seven or maybe just
24:40
Speaker 5: before age sixty five, even because it does get a
24:43
Speaker 5: lot easier at sixty five to pull off a retirement
24:46
Speaker 5: for most people. A few crucial things you got to
24:49
Speaker 5: think through. One, When am I going to collect my
24:52
Speaker 5: Social Security? How is that going to affect me? You know,
24:57
Speaker 5: is retirement going to be full retirement or am I
25:00
Speaker 5: just trying to get out of this really trying job
25:03
Speaker 5: that I've been in for years? Am I going to
25:05
Speaker 5: work part time in retirement? Because that certainly changes the
25:09
Speaker 5: formula on social security too. The most difficult one though, Chuck,
25:13
Speaker 5: you know we face this all the time. Where is
25:15
Speaker 5: my health insurance going to come from? I'm at a
25:17
Speaker 5: critical age here where I need good health insurance coverage.
25:21
Speaker 5: I cannot risk going to the hospital and facing a
25:24
Speaker 5: twenty thousand dollars bill. So where's it going to come from?
25:28
Speaker 5: And how much is that going to cost me? Because
25:29
Speaker 5: I can tell you you'll be able to get the insurance,
25:33
Speaker 5: but it sure is not going to be cheap unless
25:36
Speaker 5: you have really done some good planning here.
25:40
Speaker 4: If your plan.
25:42
Speaker 5: Is to work till sixty seven years old, like I said,
25:46
Speaker 5: it's not a surefire thing, but if you're able to
25:48
Speaker 5: save ten percent of your income for the majority of
25:51
Speaker 5: your working career, not accumulate too much debt, you know,
25:54
Speaker 5: own your home, and are on a good payoff schedule,
25:57
Speaker 5: a lot of times, that's going to pretty comfort close
26:00
Speaker 5: to getting the job done. If your goal is to
26:02
Speaker 5: pull away early, If your goal is to get retired
26:06
Speaker 5: at sixty two or fifty five, one of these really
26:09
Speaker 5: ambitious goals you need to put in the work, probably yesterday.
26:15
Speaker 5: If you'd like to work with somebody who helps their
26:17
Speaker 5: clients guide through that process and set a realistic target,
26:22
Speaker 5: give the folks at Armstrong a call.
26:24
Speaker 4: We can help you map it out.
26:25
Speaker 5: Think about the things that you might not have thought about,
26:28
Speaker 5: and whether you need somebody permanently to help you map
26:31
Speaker 5: that out, or you know is just a one time consultation.
26:35
Speaker 5: We're here to help. The numbers eight hundred three to
26:37
Speaker 5: nine three for zero zero one. You can go to
26:40
Speaker 5: Armstrong Advisory dot com for lots more information, but that
26:43
Speaker 5: phone number to talk to a real life human being
26:46
Speaker 5: eight hundred three nine three for zero zero one.
26:49
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
26:52
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
26:54
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
26:57
Speaker 1: your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
27:00
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
27:03
Speaker 1: advisory services.
27:05
Speaker 2: Let's see what do we want to cover here. Now,
27:10
Speaker 2: let's talk a little bit about this piece on Tesla
27:14
Speaker 2: from Barons says Musk is losing his magic and Tesla
27:17
Speaker 2: is paying the price. I'm just not sure that those
27:23
Speaker 2: facts are in evidence. And it's not to say that again,
27:28
Speaker 2: I'm not like some huge, like big giant like long
27:30
Speaker 2: term believer in Tesla the company. But this is a
27:35
Speaker 2: company that on an annual basis typically sees like multiple
27:41
Speaker 2: fifteen to thirty percent drawdowns well, I'm going back and
27:46
Speaker 2: looking at it right now, just because I was I
27:50
Speaker 2: was curious and wanted to, you know, kind of see
27:53
Speaker 2: what the last you know, call it five years had
27:55
Speaker 2: looked at for them. And if you pull up the
27:59
Speaker 2: five year chart and take a look at, okay, like
28:01
Speaker 2: what kinds of drawdowns have they seen? In twenty twenty
28:05
Speaker 2: two they had, let's see, it's one draw down of
28:09
Speaker 2: thirty percent, two drawdowns of thirty percent, three thirty percent
28:13
Speaker 2: draw downs in a single year. In twenty twenty three,
28:19
Speaker 2: they had two different fifteen percent draw downs. They had
28:24
Speaker 2: another thirty percent draw down in twenty four. Uh, in
28:27
Speaker 2: twenty five they had a north of thirty percent draw downs.
28:31
Speaker 5: So and by the way, the stock over the last
28:34
Speaker 5: five years is still up a good forty five percent.
28:38
Speaker 2: Yes, So I think the point that I will make is, look,
28:42
Speaker 2: if if you're someone who's you know, longing for the
28:46
Speaker 2: Tesla of twenty twenty when it went from like twenty
28:49
Speaker 2: bucks to share to three hundred, yeah, those days are over.
28:54
Speaker 2: It's not gonna go fifteen next in a single year.
28:56
Speaker 2: Because it's not gonna go to eighteen trillion dollars in
28:59
Speaker 2: a single year.
28:59
Speaker 5: And I'm not sure any of Elon Musk's other companies
29:02
Speaker 5: can either, right they you know, SpaceX iPod at a
29:06
Speaker 5: time that was very different than when Tesla ipiode.
29:09
Speaker 2: Yes, so I think, yeah, if you're expecting Tesla to
29:13
Speaker 2: do what it did back in twenty twenty, it's it's
29:15
Speaker 2: not going to those days are over, is it? You know,
29:19
Speaker 2: a stock that still has you know, crazy you know
29:22
Speaker 2: movements that can go both poorly and well for investors. Yeah,
29:27
Speaker 2: but it's it's just a highly volatile stock that when
29:30
Speaker 2: you look at the last five years, that volatility gets
29:33
Speaker 2: you some some growth that's happened.
29:36
Speaker 3: But like, that's that's what it is now.
29:38
Speaker 2: It's and so I don't think that Elon has lost
29:41
Speaker 2: his you know, mojo anymore than he did in twenty
29:44
Speaker 2: twenty two or twenty three or four or five. It's just, guys,
29:49
Speaker 2: you can only have your stock go fifteen x so
29:52
Speaker 2: many times before it gets to a size where that's
29:54
Speaker 2: just not possible anymore. And it's kind of it's just
30:01
Speaker 2: not that kind of company anymore, given the size and
30:04
Speaker 2: scale that they now operate at. But just because they
30:07
Speaker 2: have like a bad quarter, I'm not gonna poo poo.
30:09
Speaker 2: The thing you know, right, Well, if they have a
30:12
Speaker 2: great quarter, it goes up fifteen percent.
30:13
Speaker 3: Did he get it back? Like?
30:14
Speaker 1: No?
30:15
Speaker 2: Like, it's just how the stock trades. Quick break here,
30:18
Speaker 2: We've got stack Roulette coming up next.
30:22
Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube. Subscribe to our
30:26
Speaker 1: page and stay up to date on breaking business news
30:29
Speaker 1: all morning long. Face is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
30:33
Speaker 1: Follow the Financial Exchange Show on Instagram and see what's
30:37
Speaker 1: driving the conversation about Wall Street and economic trends. Face
30:41
Speaker 1: is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
30:44
Speaker 3: Ladies and Gentlemen the weekend.
30:53
Speaker 6: The Financial Exchange is incredibly proud to be a partner
30:55
Speaker 6: of the Disabled American Veterans Department in Massachusetts. Hundreds of
30:59
Speaker 6: runners of already register for this year's DAV five K,
31:03
Speaker 6: and the event is on pace to sell out in
31:05
Speaker 6: record time. So head to DAV FIVEKT Boston for all
31:08
Speaker 6: the information about how you can participate this November, or
31:12
Speaker 6: make a donation to support our great American heroes. Your
31:16
Speaker 6: gifts help fund free rides to medical appointments for veterans
31:20
Speaker 6: and the nation's first dav led housing initiative providing homes
31:23
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31:31
Speaker 6: five k dot Boston.
31:33
Speaker 3: Mike, what do you got for stack roulettes?
31:35
Speaker 5: I want to talk airlines for a moment here. Following
31:39
Speaker 5: following the demise and liquidation of Spirit Airlines, there's we
31:43
Speaker 5: raised the question at the time, what might this mean
31:46
Speaker 5: for the next airline in the most precarious spot, which
31:49
Speaker 5: would probably be Jet Blue, to whom, Yeah, those guys.
31:55
Speaker 5: They issued some debt back in twenty twenty four. It
31:58
Speaker 5: was a seven year bondishuance, paying nearly ten percent on
32:02
Speaker 5: the coupon. Through twenty twenty five, it was trading around
32:07
Speaker 5: par thate hundred dollars level. Since June of this year,
32:11
Speaker 5: it's taken a bit of a walloping. It's now down
32:14
Speaker 5: below eighty five bucks on these bonds. The yield maturity
32:20
Speaker 5: now is up in the twelve to thirteen percent range.
32:22
Speaker 5: The stock's actually done alright.
32:24
Speaker 4: This year, but they do report.
32:25
Speaker 5: Earnings next week, and again the price on these bonds
32:30
Speaker 5: has followed pretty closely with what's going on in the
32:33
Speaker 5: Middle East and jet fuel prices, but it continues to
32:36
Speaker 5: raise questions about.
32:38
Speaker 4: Hey, you in these.
32:41
Speaker 5: Very capitally intensive businesses, airlines in particular, with more and
32:45
Speaker 5: more competition being forced.
32:47
Speaker 4: Out, where does it leave Jet.
32:49
Speaker 5: Blue and a few others compared to the big giants
32:53
Speaker 5: now of American United Delta in Southwest And the answer
32:57
Speaker 5: for the time being has been not in a great place.
33:00
Speaker 2: I think that's it's pretty clear. And again, the answer
33:05
Speaker 2: can't be, hey, we don't want to let you merge
33:07
Speaker 2: because you're going to be too big. Well you already
33:09
Speaker 2: allowed it for all these other guys.
33:11
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I mean, it's.
33:12
Speaker 3: Not a level playing field if they can't merge.
33:14
Speaker 4: Yeah.
33:14
Speaker 5: So you know, Jet Blue will probably continue to point
33:17
Speaker 5: at that, and they should, I think, yeah, a bit
33:20
Speaker 5: of a mistake.
33:22
Speaker 4: You know.
33:22
Speaker 5: Spirit Airlines warned, Hey, we're going to go bankrupt if
33:25
Speaker 5: you don't let us merge. Merger was blocked low and
33:28
Speaker 5: behold they went bankrupt and sold all their jets to
33:30
Speaker 5: the big players.
33:31
Speaker 3: Yeah.
33:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's see, what do I want to talk about, Mike,
33:36
Speaker 2: when's the last time you've been to Vegas.
33:39
Speaker 4: Two thoy twenty one?
33:42
Speaker 3: Maybe you big buffet fan? H No, No, not a
33:46
Speaker 3: big buffet fan. No, how come.
33:48
Speaker 5: Nothing against the buffet, just buffet, not the highlight of
33:52
Speaker 5: my day, buffet in general, or the Vegas buffet that
33:56
Speaker 5: you're not a fan of.
33:57
Speaker 3: Michael, Oh, you know we're talking about Vegas.
33:59
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think jally, but even in Vegas, I guess
34:02
Speaker 5: I've just never been to it. I know that Vegas
34:04
Speaker 5: is famous for their buffets, and I haven't been to one,
34:07
Speaker 5: so I can't say that I have an immense amount
34:08
Speaker 5: of experience with this.
34:09
Speaker 2: There's only four buffets left in Vegas now left, that's
34:13
Speaker 2: all four left.
34:14
Speaker 3: But in March twenty twenty there were twelve. There's four now.
34:18
Speaker 3: They keep dwindling.
34:20
Speaker 2: And the big thing is number one, like the prices
34:24
Speaker 2: have moved way up and Number two look buffets like
34:28
Speaker 2: naturally like they're not, you know, even with higher prices,
34:31
Speaker 2: they're not really you know, profit centers. When you have
34:33
Speaker 2: a bunch of wealthy people that are now traveling to Vegas.
34:37
Speaker 2: And this is the thing, Like the character of Vegas
34:38
Speaker 2: has changed in that. Sure it used to be, hey,
34:41
Speaker 2: you can get a room for like fifty bucks for
34:44
Speaker 2: the night, and then you're gonna lose all your money
34:46
Speaker 2: playing you know craps. Now the hotels are saying, hey,
34:49
Speaker 2: there's all these wealthier people coming, we can charge more
34:51
Speaker 2: for the rooms and like, you know, niceen up the place.
34:54
Speaker 2: And so it's it's a very different vibe than even
34:57
Speaker 2: ten years ago. And if you went back in the
35:00
Speaker 2: early two thousand's, late nineties, it's borderline unrecognizable.
35:04
Speaker 5: I'll also say, compared to a couple decades ago, the
35:09
Speaker 5: options for what to do have expanded pretty dramatic. Not
35:12
Speaker 5: that there weren't shows two decades ago, but you didn't
35:15
Speaker 5: hear about people bringing their families to Vegas two decades ago.
35:18
Speaker 6: I'm seeing the prices for buffets are sixty to eighty
35:21
Speaker 6: dollars in that range.
35:22
Speaker 4: I'm not surprised.
35:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is kind of surprised by that.
35:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not you know, the twenty dollars all you
35:29
Speaker 2: can eat buffet anymore.
35:30
Speaker 1: That's what I was like.
35:31
Speaker 2: No, it's it's moved in a very different direction. And look,
35:36
Speaker 2: it's you can yell at the clouds all you want.
35:39
Speaker 2: This is what it is now. And honestly, it's no
35:43
Speaker 2: different from what you see. And you know, a lot
35:45
Speaker 2: of city like as an example, down by the TD Garden,
35:49
Speaker 2: now it's a bunch of like places that have gotten
35:51
Speaker 2: all spruced up and everything like that. The only place
35:54
Speaker 2: that's really left from the old era at this point
35:56
Speaker 2: is Sullivan's Tap. Everything else is gone. Yeah, everything like
36:02
Speaker 2: the penalty box is gone. I'm trying to think of,
36:06
Speaker 2: like the stuff that used to be down.
36:07
Speaker 6: The Hurricanes has been there a while now, the harp.
36:10
Speaker 2: I mean, like, I don't qualify those as like the same,
36:12
Speaker 2: like it used to be like pretty and run down,
36:15
Speaker 2: like halftime still there, but even that's under different ownership,
36:18
Speaker 2: I think. Yeah, so it's like the vibes in all
36:23
Speaker 2: these places.
36:23
Speaker 5: Change and well, look, I mean I think attending any
36:27
Speaker 5: of these things has gotten much more expensive.
36:29
Speaker 2: It's scarcely there's only one Vegas. There's there's only one Vegas.
36:33
Speaker 2: And so that's the thing is, Hey, if you have
36:36
Speaker 2: more people with more money and Vegas is still you
36:40
Speaker 2: know what it like, there's still only one of them. Okay, Like, yeah,
36:44
Speaker 2: of course you're gonna be able to charge more. It's
36:46
Speaker 2: no different from how people complain about sports, you know,
36:48
Speaker 2: tickets and concert tickets and stuff like that. It's it's
36:51
Speaker 2: the same thing.
36:52
Speaker 6: Unfortunately, Well, Vegas was pretty attractive because it was pretty
36:55
Speaker 6: affordable back in the day.
36:57
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, they wanted to get you there cheap and
36:58
Speaker 2: then you know completely rinseia.
37:01
Speaker 3: You know, like that's that's how it was.
37:03
Speaker 2: It was, oh, get as many people as we can here,
37:04
Speaker 2: and now it's well they'll come anyways, even if they
37:07
Speaker 2: have to pay more.
37:08
Speaker 1: It will still rent you.
37:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then we'll rinse you like it's it's it's great.
37:12
Speaker 2: There's nothing like it on earth. It's uh, it's it's wonderful. Uh.
37:16
Speaker 2: Taking a look at markets, we've got the S and
37:19
Speaker 2: P stretch and its legs a bit now up forty
37:20
Speaker 2: two bucks a share and not a share forty forty
37:24
Speaker 2: two points. You've got crude oil now off about four
37:27
Speaker 2: and a quarter percent on rumors that the Pakistanis are
37:30
Speaker 2: trying to move a new peace deal forward. We'll see again,
37:34
Speaker 2: I don't know if something good is gonna come out
37:36
Speaker 2: of it or if it's just more noise, but we'll
37:39
Speaker 2: we'll see what ends up happening there.
37:41
Speaker 3: But kind of a.
37:43
Speaker 2: Reversal of yesterday's moves taking place here today, and you know,
37:48
Speaker 2: we'll see what happens over.
37:50
Speaker 3: The uh the weekend.
37:52
Speaker 2: We are going to take a just a quick break
37:55
Speaker 2: for the whole weekend. But I hope everyone listening, hope
37:58
Speaker 2: you have a great weekend. And we're gonna be back
38:01
Speaker 2: on Monday. And it's a fed week and a monster
38:04
Speaker 2: week for earning. So this week you're forgiven. If you
38:08
Speaker 2: tuned out a little bit, next week, no forgiveness, yes,
38:12
Speaker 2: zero forgiveness, all business starting Monday.
38:15
Speaker 3: We'll see you then,