Latest / This Week in DFW Real Estate / 2026 Is Not a Rebound Year: The Truth About the Transaction Redistribution

Transcript

2026 Is Not a Rebound Year: The Truth About the Transaction Redistribution · This Week in DFW Real Estate

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Those are some of the statistics we say with a
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: lot of conviction, And I'm just like honest enough to
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: be like, I don't know what we're convicted about. I've
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: never understood what the statistic means. Economics is solely beholden
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: to market sentiment. So what everybody thinks is true is
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: going to be true. When everybody thinks the market's bad,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: guess what. They don't want to spend any money, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: that makes the market bad. The Great Depression lasted for
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: so long because market sentiment was that we are in
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: a deep depression. And when we are feeling like we
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: are in a deep depression, I am not likely to
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: go and try to start a new business venture or
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: to spend a whole bunch of money. And when nobody's
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: doing those things, it doesn't inject liquidity into the marketplace,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: and the economy has trouble recovering. And so these things
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: tend to happen. So what I mean when I say
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: they tend to happen slowly, then quickly they start actually
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: happening slowly, and then things change really really quickly.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Twenty twenty six is not It's not a rebound year.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: It's a redistribution year right, So we're not rebounding, it's
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: just a redistribution. The good news is, look, less agents
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: are are they're leaving.
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: It's a great way to put it.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Look it's a more it's a bigger and better opportunity
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: for you.
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: Churn it up. This week a DF your Real Estate
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: Now weekly podcast too for.
• 1:18
  Speaker 4: Agents who actually can pay party move listening, heat clothing freaks,
• 1:23
  Speaker 4: dmm way, let's.
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: See all right, welcome back to episode four. It's flying
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: by going so fast every week.
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: Last week we if you listened to the last week's show,
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: we went over short sales and funny thing is we
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: had Uh. I got a text this morning from Logan Walter. Yeah,
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: good friend of ours and uh, by the way Logan's business,
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: he's crushing it.
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I gotta share. I'll share some text with you.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: What he was kind of kind of sharing with me
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: about the his sentiment on the market right now, But
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: he was he had sent me a text asking about
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: if I could help him or refer him to somebody
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: that would help kind of guide him through. He's got
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: his first short sale listing and then Jesse posting the
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: group like ten minutes later, he dropped episode three, which
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: was going over the short short sales.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I had two coaching calls earlier the day, two for
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: two agents are dealing with short sale situations.
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: Now, now I do want to go back, and obviously
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: it's a hot topic. In today's show. We're going to
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: go over kind of the language of real estate.
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: What's happening.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: There's three cycles, three phases that are going on and
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: where we're at currently, and.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: We'll break down some numbers. But I do, I do.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: Just like I was telling Logan when we were having
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: our text conversation today, I was I was letting know
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: this while we should be skilled up on it, and
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: we're going to have it. We're gonna where we are
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: putting together a great training class on it. Just takes
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: some time. We have to update everything again. This is
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: starting to come back, but a lot of the old
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: training guides and people that were doing it may no
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: longer be in the business or it's not relevant to
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: today's modern you know, everything going on, So just be
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: on the lookout for that. Also, if you are first
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: time listening to this or you've never been, never seen
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: Brian and I talk about or been on our show,
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: go over to our Facebook group DFW Realtors. You can
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: continue the conversation there, share, collaborate to network. But I
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: was telling I was telling Logan, I was like, look,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: you should skill up on it just to be able
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: to have conversations with sellers that are going through this.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: This is a tough time, it's stressful for them, and
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: you can be the voice of reason, you can help
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: calm them down. But it is going to be a
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: still very small percentage of an agent's business, correct, right,
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know it's not everyone is going to
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: financial is hurting financially. Not everyone is falling behind on
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: their payments and having not have enough equity in their
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: house to you know, have to go through the short sale.
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: These types of things.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Sorry, just like for a second, these types of things
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  Speaker 1: there are indications of of of of uh broader economic
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: pieces of the landscape, so you may never run into
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: a short sale situation. We went on over some of
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: the numbers last week, and still small percentage of deals
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: that are that are probably going to be short sales.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: The reason that I think that we talk about those
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: things so much is one it's a very unique thing
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  Speaker 1: that's happening in the marketplace.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: Right now.
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  Speaker 1: That hasn't been happening for a long time, and now
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: that it is to kind of talked about last week,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: that's that's a that's kind of what we call leading
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: indicator for where the market might be heading a little bit.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: What's important about the short sales situation, whether or not
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: you're ever going to complete one or it's ever going
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: to be an aspect of your business, is that as
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: an agent, what is incredibly important right now is that
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: you're becoming more adept at having powerful conversations with your
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: clients because if we're starting to see more short sale situations.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: While you may never do a short sale, what I
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: can guarantee you you will be. What will happen in
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: your business if you are a productive agent is you're
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: going to be having some conversations with people who have
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: a different mindset around how they want to price their
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: home than what the market.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: Is going to give them right now.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Yes, the amount of short sales coming into the market
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: is an indication that prices are coming down from where
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: they once were. And so if there's anything you take
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: away from this, if you're just like I'm not doing
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: short sales, this never I never come across it right, Okay,
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: I understand that. Also, are you prepared to have fierce
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: conversations with your seller clients around pricing homes accurately, because
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: if not, you're going to have some headwinds and getting
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: some listing sold.
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: Sure. Absolutely.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: And by the way, this is if first time listening
• 5:50
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• 5:53
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• 5:55
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• 6:00
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• 6:03
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• 6:04
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• 7:39
  Speaker 2: Great, Yes, But if we go back to if we
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: kind of go back to kind of what everything's facing this,
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: you know, it's easy to scream the sky is falling,
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: It's easy to think that, you know, the real estate
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: market is just in shambles. But when we when we
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: really look at there's there's really three Every housing cycle
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: has three phases, right, and if we break it down that,
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: you know, the the modern housing cycle from the seventies,
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: the seventies had the SNL crisis, right, the savings and
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: loan crisis that started to have that real.
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: Estate contraction in there.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: Two thousand and eight we have the the financial global collapse,
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  Speaker 2: and then that moves through, and that moves through the
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: same three phases. And in phase one what ends up
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: typically happening is you have to have this growth, right,
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: You've got to have this expansion that's happening. And typically
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: when that when that does happen, depending on whether the seventies, eighties, nineties,
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: that when we kind of see this this market cycle happening.
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: That expansion typically means there's a lot easier credit, right,
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: it's easier to get credit, it's cheaper borrowing, and then
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: there's because of that, it increases rising demand.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: It's there are several terms around this, if you've ever
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: heard them, irrational exuber instance, one group think is another essentially,
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: when when everybody starts doing something, everyone starts.
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: To do something.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: And so the idea of the expanding part of the
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: business cycle is, you know, this was kind of I
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: would say artificially started in a way when we went
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: into the COVID years and we dropped rates really really quickly.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: But that made money cheaper. It was cheaper to borrow,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: easy credit, and so everybody started, or I say, the
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: first initial wave of people started to buy a house.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: When that happens, then the rest of the market reacts
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: and the public goes, everyone's buying a house.
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: I should buy a house.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Now before it's too late, And then the lending side
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: will go I want to capitalize on all of the
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: available market share out there. I need to be competitive
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: in order to do that, So how can I make
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: better mortgage products to make money even cheaper. How can
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: I cut my my commission down a little bit possibly,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: How can I just get the most loans done that
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: I can possibly do? And then you'll end up with
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: even an easier pathway to borrow, in which when you
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: have an easy pathway to borrowing and everyone around you
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: is doing something, you're going to want to do something
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: as well. So it becomes this self fulfilling cycle. And
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: then as that momentum carries us forward, then usually you
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: get into what becomes an a rationally exuberant phase of
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: the cycle, which eventually will lead to the second phase
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: of the cycle, which is contraction. But this irrationally exuberant
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: part of the cycle, in my opinion, is when we
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: started to see sales prices creep up to a point
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: where people were no longer paying anywhere close to advertise
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: market pricing. They were coming out of pocket and continuing
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: to push prices up. A little bit of a history
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: and future lesson. As you experience these types of things,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: you'll start to recognize where we're at in the business cycle,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: and usually you'd only recognize it in hindsight. So this
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: is a great opportunity to learn for the future. When
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: you start to see people doing things that they otherwise
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: wouldn't do in any market environment, like pay an extra
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars in cash for a home that wasn't
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: worth one hundred thousand dollars more six months ago. You
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: may start to feel like this is the exactly this
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: is the irrationally exuberant phase of the cycle.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: Well, look when that does happen, and for us as
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: real estate professionals and agents, what does this mean? We saw,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: we saw the floodgates open of people getting in and
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: getting their license. We saw a lot more real estate
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: agents joining the business. We saw a lot more loan
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: officers getting into the business because you know, it was.
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: Easy money making money. Yeah.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: And you know, to go back to your point of like, hey,
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: you know when you start to put on, when you
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: start to look around and you can start to notice
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: these trends happening, and you know, all right here, this
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: is where we are in the whether we're in the beginning,
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: the middle, or the tail end of the cycle, is
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: that you still have to get while the getting's good. Yeah, right,
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: you just because you know we're in phase one, the
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: expansion phase, and you're like, oh, this is bad, right,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: I know that the I know that what ends up happening.
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: And what we're doing right now is we're stealing. We
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: can use the term borrowing. We're borrowing, you know, we're
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: taking to you know, future sales today right, and we're
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: just kicking the can down the road of something bad
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: that's going to happen.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're taking tomorrow's successes and we're taking today and
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: tomorrow success is all right now, which means tomorrow there's
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: not going to be as much success available.
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: But when you even though that, you might logically know
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: that's happening, you can't stop it.
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: We're still showing up for work. Yeah, and I didn't
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: stop working back then.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you can't stop it, but what you can start doing.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: And Brian and I the little little side note, Brian
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: and I had the opportunity and privilege to speak in
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: front of one hundred and twenty hundred and thirty agents
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: yesterday at a wealth building event that Britney Stewart and
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: Nicole Russo put on.
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: They did an amazing, really really great job.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: By the way, if you if you've not been to
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: the Metro Tax Building and Irving, freaking amazing.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they do events there regularly. So those two throw
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: an awesome event and if you I'm sure they put
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: all sorts of marketing out for the next one they're doing,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: like make sure you jump on that because it was awesome.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: And one of the things that when Brian and I
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: get we had we got the opportunity to close out
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: the event that was kind of cool was that we asked,
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: we kind of looked, and we asked the room, if
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: everyone lost their their income today, their real estate income today,
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: how much how many people would be in for a
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: world of financial hurt. Yeah, And quite a bit of
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: them shook their head. Yes, a few of them actually
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: rose raised their hands and it's like, yeah, it would
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: be painful. They didn't have enough money saved up, or
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: they didn't have enough money coming in from their investments
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: or residual income. And I only bring that up because
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: when we're in this phase one of expansion and we're
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: we're gonna get when the getting's good, we also need
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: to start putting some money away. We also need to
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: probably start investing so that when we know we start
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: getting in a face two and then phase three, yeah,
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: that we can weather out the storm.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: So I believe that we're kind of fully into phase
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: three right now, and so we want to talk about
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: these next two phases. But in order to just make
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: this actionable, like we always try to do, these cycles
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: are as predictable as the sun rising. They're going to happen,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: the sunrising and sunsetting. It's predictable. These three phases of
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: the business cycle are predictable. So we will be in
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: a phase one scenario again relatively soon, most likely, for
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: whatever reasons. If there's one actionable thing I hope you
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: took away from the last market cycle, take all of
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: the success that you find when you're in an expanding
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: market and be responsible with it because it will carry
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: you to a life of wealth and freedom.
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: Show up and work your butt off.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: Don't get accustom to living the lifestyle that you could
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: possibly afford if it was Phase one all the time,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: because it won't always be Phase one. And I think
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: that's a miss. I think that's a decision and that
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: a lot of agents unfortunately made is just thinking that
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: Phase one was going to last forever.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: Well, and then you know again we start we take
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: out loans, or our monthly expenses get you know, get
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: too high, because we always think that our income is
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: going to stay the same or go up. Because when
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: you ask people and the car industry does this right,
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: You're going to buy a car and you finance out
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: for five, six, seven years, and you know, the car
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: salesman says, you know, Brian, do you think don't you
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: think you're going to be making more money next year
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: for the next couple of years. You're like, well, yeah,
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: very few people actually say no. And then what ends
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: up happening is we start to prices start getting, you know,
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: too high, We start to we start to see, you know,
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: a shortage of inventory happening, and you know, then we
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: have to we have to fix the problem. And by
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: the time we start fixing the problem, it's usually we're
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: usually too far into the phase one and you know,
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: then we have to get into phase two, which is compression, yep,
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: And that's when we start to overcorrect.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: And it usually the compression cycle starts slowly and then
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: quickly things start to slow down a little bit and
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: you start to sense it just at the fringes, just
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: at the and and you want to do you want
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: to ever just I mean, if you could you could
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: go back and look at there's a there's a lot
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: of a really great real estate Facebook groups and things
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: like that. Obviously do you have to be realtors if
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: you haven't joined that? Uh, but there are there are
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: many out there on the internet, and there's always This
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: is how the transition from phase one to phase two
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: tends to look in the in the hyper connected age
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: that we're in. If you remember, maybe three years ago
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: we were really transitioning from phase one to phase two,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: interest rates it climbed quite a bit and and the
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: last of the liquidity was really running out in the marketplace,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: and you would see these Facebook comment threads for these
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: posts and these groups like, is is anybody feeling like,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: you know, they're not getting any offers? You know in
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: the houses they used to sell really quickly and things
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: like that. And then you'd have the loudest voice in
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: the room be like, not in my market, it's to
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: the moon every day. Right, It's like, okay, we're starting
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: to see the transition to phase two. Because these things
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: don't happen everywhere all at once, right, you'll start to
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: get a sense of like, okay, the market is changing
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: in some areas, and then you get flat out denial
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: from other people that like it's never going to change.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: We're going to be in phase one forever. So it's
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: just always an interesting it's interesting to watch those conversations
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: unfold in real time, but that's generally when you'll start
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: to get the sense of change is happening. And then normally,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: looking back in hindsight, you'll see that things happened very
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: slowly and then very very quickly, because again with the
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: irrational exuberance. Once the general public and the market sentiment changes,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: it changes for everyone, right, And that's the true That's
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: the truth of economics, is that economics is solely beholden
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: to market sentiment. So what everybody thinks is true is
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: going to be true. That's why it's so difficult sometimes
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: to recover from things like a great financial crisis or
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: a deep recession, not because we couldn't pull ourselves out
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: of recession, like we don't have the capital to do it,
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: is because when everybody thinks the market's bad, guess what,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: they don't want to spend any money, and that makes
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: the market bad.
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: It's the same thing.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: And this is why this is one of the many
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: things that we attempted to try and pull ourselves out
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: of with the Great depression. The Great Depression lasted for
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: so long because market sentiment was that we are in
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: a deep depression. And when we are feeling like we
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: are in a deep depression, I am not likely to
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: go and try to start a new business venture or
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: to spend a whole bunch of money. And when nobody's
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: doing those things, it doesn't inject liquidity into the marketplace.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: And the economy has trouble recovering, and so these things
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: tend to happen. So what I mean when I say
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: they tend to happen slowly, then quickly they start actually happening,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: meaning the liquidity starts to run out, rates go up,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: the sales prices get to a peaking point where people
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: are no longer willing to pay more and more and more.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: And then the second part of the transition is now
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: people actually start to feel and think that things are changing.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: And then once the market thinks that things are changing,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: they actually do change. That's where the market sentiment comes
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: into play. And then things change really really quickly.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: There's a lot there, and and you know, let's go
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: back to all right, we start to enter that phase too,
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: and which is in our market that is twenty you
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: know right now, that's that was the start of twenty
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: twenty three.
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: If we really look at it right, we.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: Started to see what we started to see rates rise,
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: and rates rising was kind of you know, when we
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: look at it, it's we're blaming inflation. You know, the
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: blame is the you know, everything got more expensive, but
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: it's it's also we're trying to we're trying to tighten
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: up home affordabilities gotten out of hand, right right, and
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: the banks start tightening up on liquidity, right It's you
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: start to see this Bank of America used to do
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: this a lot like you. I remember clients saying they
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: used to they would get this really low rate, and
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: you know, the more people that went through the Bank
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: of America loan process, then all of a sudden they
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: would start to tighten up and they weren't getting the
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: same rates or anything.
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: That's like that.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know how legally they can do that, but
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: but it's the same thing. As we start to see,
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: all right, that that liquidity starts to tighten up, affordability
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: really starts to break down, and transactions fall. I mean,
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: we went from about what what was the height was
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: it six point five six point one six point five
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: somewhere like that.
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: It was.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, close to six and a half million transaction sides
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: traded in twenty twenty two was the peak, I believe.
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: And then we fell from from that over six million
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: transactional sides to four four point zero three, Yes, four
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: point zero three. And that's about a thirty five percent
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: drop when we see that, And if we really think
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: about it, what didn't change, right, If we really look
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: at if we look at this as a whole, demand
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: cooled off and stopped because of interest rates, because of affordability.
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: Household formation didn't stop.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, people didn't stop having kids, people didn't stop being born.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: The population didn't stop growing. Their capacity to afford a
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: home was the only thing that changed.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: Right, And so when we start to look at this,
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: because again, as agents and real estate professionals, what do
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: we do we get in our own heads about this,
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: and when the market's bad, we're like, whoa, everything's bad.
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: There's no way we can make money at this.
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: And when we start to look at all, right, if
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: we go with the problem solving, techniques of money changes
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: hands when problems are solved and we say, all right,
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: we know that the home ownership demand didn't disappear. It's
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: just kind of it's just kind of temporarily on the sideline.
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: You know, people still have stuff going on. They're still
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: having kids, they're still getting married, they're still getting divorced, right,
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: they're still getting you know, they're downsizing, or you know,
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: they're dying.
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah, things still have to happen.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: I don't subscribe to the idea that the younger generations
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: don't want to purchase real estate. I think it's become
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: more difficult for them. And the reason that I think
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: that that's an important note to make is that I
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: actually don't think home ownership demand anecdotally, at least, I
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: don't think that it's ever changed in America. I think
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: there's something very human about wanting to own the place
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: where you live. I don't think that's changed. I mean, heck,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: I was probably one of the biggest outliers for the
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: longest time because I really enjoyed living in small spaces
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: and not having to worry about a whole bunch. But
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: I bought a lot of real estate in that time.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: I just didn't buy my own single family homestead. But
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: I think on a national level, the desire that people
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: have to own a home. I don't think has changed,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: and I don't know that it ever really will. The
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: thing that changes is their ability to do that and
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: still maintain the lifestyle that they want to maintain while
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: affording the home that they want to purchase. And so
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: these things, these cycles happen really, really, really simply. Phase
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: one is starts with I want to home, I can
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: afford one, and everybody starts to think that it's a
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: good time to buy. When it's I want a home,
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: I can't afford one, and everybody else wants one as well.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Now you're in an expanding cycle. It's good to be
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: in the home selling business because everyone wants to be.
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: In the home buying business.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: When you have a significant event that lowers interest rates,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: that's just gravy on top. We would have been in
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: an expanding cycle in twenty twenty, regardless of whether COVID
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: or not happened. It was just that point in the cycle.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: But now it was I want a home, I can
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: afford it, everybody else wants one, and I have cheap money,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: which that just accelerates the expansion. And so that's where
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: you get into phase one. And then phase one will
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: start to pucker out at some point, because it's I
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: want a home. Everyone around me wants a home, but
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: even at these interest rates, I can't really afford one
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: because I don't have the savings in the bank to
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: go one hundred thousand dollars over asking price. And so
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: more and more people start to fall into that category.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: And that's when it happens slowly, then quickly, slowly, fewer
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: people can afford the thing that they want. And then
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: because fewer people can afford the thing that they want,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: now slowly the market sentiment will change to I want
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: a home. Fewer people around me want homes because they're
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: really expensive, and it doesn't even matter if I want
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: one because I can't afford it anyway. And so now
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: you're swiftly into phase two, which is homes are too expensive,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: and now nobody wants to buy a home. This is
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: an extreme example, but now it's now home buying is bad.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: But you notice there the desire to own a home
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: isn't what changed. It's can I afford to have the
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: home that I want and still live the lifestyle that
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: I want. I would still love to own a home,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: I just can't afford it under these circumstances, and now
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: market sentiment is such that, oh, the market sucks, it's
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: a bad time to buy a home, so on and
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: so forth. Well, if the market feels like it's a
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: bad time to buy a home, then the asset that
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: you own, people are going to be willing to pay
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: less for that, and you're going to have to come
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: down in price in order to make that sale happen.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: So now it happens prices fall a little bit. This
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: all happens outside of interest rates. Interest rates are a
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: temporary thing. So now it is I want a home,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: I can't really afford one. But if you sell me
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: one for cheaper, then you're listing it for right now,
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: I'll buy it, and if you're motivated enough to move,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: you'll sell it to me for cheaper. And so now,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: slowly things start to change in the other direction. Slowly,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: sellers start to go I own a home, i want
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: to move on to the next chapter of my life.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: I'm willing to sell it for a little bit less,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: and everyone around me is willing to sell it for
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit less too, So I have to be
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: willing to sell for a little bit less. And then,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: slowly and then quickly we move into phase three, which
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: is I want a home. I'm starting to be able
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: to afford it. Again, not everyone around me realizes yet,
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: and so I think it's a good time to buy
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: a home. And that's where you get consolidation. That's where
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: you start to get seller supply and buyer demand coming
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: back in sync. This is what this is the part
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: of the cycle that we're now entering. Is I want
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: a home. I'll pay a fair price for it. And
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: if you're willing to sell yours at a fair price,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: I will now buy it. That's distinctly in two phase three,
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: which is where I believe we're out in the cycle.
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: Now, well, let me ask you this, Brian, because like
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: you know, Keller Williams just that their agents just came
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: back from their convention Family Reunion.
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: And one of the one of.
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: The slides during their kind of their vision speech that
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: shares data, you know, it goes over the housing reports,
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: and one of their one of their their slides talked
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: about wealth and income in it. I'll pull it up here,
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: so it talks about you know, the baby boomer generation,
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: Gen X and millennials, and we talk about all right,
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: homes are homes aren't affordable anymore, and there they always
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: go back and reference like their parents or you know,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: you know, ten years ago, fifteen years ago, and how
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: today's generation is not making money. And a lot of that,
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: I think has to do with number one is they
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: don't understand the concept of money and just the value.
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: Because so these stats here goes over baby boomers. They're
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: average total assets by the age of thirty, right, so
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: this is at age their age thirty, their balance sheet
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: by generation baby booter boomers had an average total assets
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: of one hundred and forty seven thousand, five hundred and
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: sixty one dollars. Now, their average debt total debt was
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: fifty three thousand, five hundred and eighty three dollars. Their
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: average mortgage debt at that time was forty thousand, three
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: hundred eighty seven, and their average net worth was ninety
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: three thousand, nine hundred and seventy eight with a median
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: net worth of twenty four thousand, nine hundred Right. Then
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: we get into gen X. Their total their average total
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: assets by the age of thirty is two hundred and
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: fourteen thousand, seven hundred and forty three dollars. So we're
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: seeing an increase in total assets. Right, Well, it's compared
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: to the baby boomers at the one forty seven to
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: five hundred. Now their average debt is double. It's at
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: one hundred thousand, three hundred ninety four dollars. Their average
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: mortgage debt is up thirty four thousand by to seventy
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: four thousand, seven hundred and fifty eight dollars, and their
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: average net worth is one hundred and fourteen thousand and
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: three forty nine with a media networth of thirty one
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: thousand and four to seventy two.
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: Now we go back again.
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: Baby boomers are at a media networth at twenty four thousand,
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: nine hundred at the age of thirty. Gen X is
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: at an average net worth median net worth are starting
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: media networth of thirty one thousand, four to seventy two.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: So there that's a what plus seven thousand basically, and
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: millennials their average total assets two hundred nineteen thousand, seven
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: hundred and sixty six dollars and some change, average total
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: debt one hundred and fourteen thousand, nine to fifty seven.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: So you can see that each generation is getting more
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: and more higher debt leverage. Their average mortgage debt is
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: seventy six thou fifty six with an average net worth
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: of one oh four eight ten and a median net
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: worth of thirty six thousand, six hundred and forty two dollars.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: So if we look at all right wealth and income,
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: each generation is actually generating more wealth and income than
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: the previous generation. The problem that we're seeing is that
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: we're you know, we're the newer, the the the younger
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: generation is taking on more debt to get there, and
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: so when things go bad for them, you know, because
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: everyone faces a storm in their lifetime or storms that
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: do they they don't have enough maybe financial backing to
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: whether that whether that's squat.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: So this is this is a good point that you
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: just made, and I want people to key in on this.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: What's less important is your total net worth and what's
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: more important is the spread between your assets and liabilities
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: as a total percentage of your assets and liabilities. Right,
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: So if you think that basically we're taking the difference
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: between twenty four in total net worth and thirty six
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: and total net worth three generations removed, so baby boomers
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: to millennials, is that we're or is a gen which
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: generation was the last one that you mentioned.
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: It was baby boomers gen X and millennials.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: Millennial, So the two generations removed, you have goes from
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: twenty four thousand dollars in media net worth to thirty
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: six thousand dollars in media net worth. But that's spread
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: basically the spread between assets and liabilities being thirty six thousand.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: For millennials, that's a smaller spread as a total percentage
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: of their assets, meaning thirty what's thirty six thousand divided
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: by was it two hundred fourteen thousand assets? You said
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: to nineteen Can you help me with this, Jesse? I
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: know this is just math, but I think this is
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: actually important. What's thirty six divided by two nineteen sixteen
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: point five percent? Sixty point four percent? And then what
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: is twenty four thousand divided by? What was the original assets?
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: For the boomers it.
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: Was their total assets of one forty seven five sixty
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: one and a twenty four nine hundred media networth.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, so wow, so okay, so this is really important.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: Sixteen point two percent, so almost the exact same percentage, right,
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: but at a much higher level of assets. If you
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: have kind of that same spread, then if your home,
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: for example, becomes worth twelve percent less over three years.
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: You can understand how that can put you in a
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: massive bind. Right, So having that type of spread, when
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: your net worth is essentially lower and you're not taking
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: on as much debt, then you don't have as much
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: if you're, if you're, if you the value of your
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: asset goes down to smaller spread. That's an interesting way
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: of thinking. What's It's an interesting way of thinking of things.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: That really the.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: Assets and liabilities spread has not really changed a whole
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: lot in two generations. Housing prices have gone up, Wages
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: have not gone up as much as housing prices, which
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: means that we have to be taking on more debt
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: or buying more things.
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: So it's buying more things.
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: Obviously we've got, you know, we'd I would like to
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: look at the percentage of increasing student loan debt from
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: baby boomers to.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: Genera I'm just like thinking out loud because I've never
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: seen that slide before. So like if you watch this
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: podcast and then think, like Brian just said something that
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: wasn't totally true. Just I'm thinking out loud right now
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: and trying to find the signal from the noise here
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: how do you have the exact same percentage of assets
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: to liabilities, but you're you're less well off financially. It's
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: because you've probably taken on more debt than previous generations,
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: and if you have more debt, then you're a little
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: bit more fragile. It's honestly, it's a little interesting that
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: that percentage is so close though, because I would have
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: thought that we have a much higher percentage of debt
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: to assets. What I would be curious about on that
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: slide is is.
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: That all millennials are only homeowners.
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: Well, it's what's saying. It's all I mean, it's it's
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: they're they're using the comparison that I know. Yeah, that
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: could be wrong, but they're saying, you know, everyone by
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: the age of thirty.
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's really interesting.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: So what else has changed between the baby boomer generation
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: and millennials. Well, we have way easier access to more
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: things we can spend.
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: That's the thing.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: We have the capacity to spend more money than previous generations,
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: and I think that's one of the things that is
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: it makes financial education and wealth building so much more
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: important in younger generations. Is it's way easier to not
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: build wealth than it was in previous generations. There's only
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: a few things you really had the ability to spend
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: money on as a baby boomer when I was If
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: you're thirty years old, as a baby boomer, you've got
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: access to obviously to you know, restaurants and stores and
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: things like that. But like, I can't just buy every
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: little thing that I want off of Amazon whenever I want.
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: And here's a good here, so I just you know,
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: doing some quick research on it. So you know, again
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: baby boomers, So if we look at it in general,
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: like if we go to the student loans sect, if
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: we go to more student loans, only about three percent
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: of baby boomers by the time they were thirty carried
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: any type of student loan debt right now gen X
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: and millennials gen X, that number jumped to about eight
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: percent of millennials by the time their age of thirty
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: still carrying you know, student loan debt, and then it
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: jumped up to millennials is now about twelve Roughly about
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: twelve percent of the population of millennials is still paying
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: off on student loans. And so, you know, if we
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: if we look at it in two thousand and having
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: the average student loan balance was about eighteen thousand dollars.
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: Today it's it's roughly about thirty eight thousand dollars.
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: So it's more than doubled on that. And and.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: You know when when we look at it here, here's
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: an interesting thing, is you know this, this, that here,
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: and I'd have to fact check it. So I'm going
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: to put it out there and then someone can tell
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: me if I'm completely wrong. Every thousand dollars in student
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: loan debt that that's being reduced, it increases someone's likelihood
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: of home ownership by.
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: Nearly two percent. I would believe that.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: So we we have we can see that number one,
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: the correlation of student loan debt to home ownership, you know,
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: for the younger generation is greatly impacts that. So so
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: you know, you know, for for future generations. If we
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: want to you know, if we want to make a
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: positive impact on homeownership, then we got to figure out
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: how to reduce the student loan debt.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: It's I'm glad that you went and took that direction,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: because where my mind goes when I see statistics like
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: this is I just go down rabbit holes on how
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: do we cut through some of the noisiness here and
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: kind of see what are the real levers that have
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: been pulled in between these generations to make affordability different
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: and lifestyle changes and things like that. Right, Like, there's
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: there's an obvious anecdotal thing that we talk about a
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: lot that home affordability has gotten out of hand. And
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: I think one of the things that we miss is
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: that home sizes have gotten out of hand as well,
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: right like the can you can you just I know,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: I'm asking you for a lot on this because we've
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: been thrown a whole bunch of stuff at you today, Jesse,
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: But like average home size in America in nineteen sixty, like,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: just I'm sure you'll come up with.
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: Something if you do. You know, I do recall we're
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: seeing this is that we you can do by year
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: that's even better.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we saw that, We saw that increase to the McMansions. Right, So,
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: like nineteen seventy, the average median or the median new
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: single family home side was fifteen hundred square feet.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: Literally increased by fifty percent. Since the seventies, homes are
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: fifty percent large.
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: But it's going back down.
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: And now that's funny, it's peaked and it's coming back down.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: It's because on average people having fewer kids.
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: Less kids, but it's also cheaper to build, all right,
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: So we're trying to make more affordability and jesse to
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: go back to the student loan debt. The you know,
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: the stat here that just is eye opening to me
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: is that again for every reiterated, every one thousand dollars
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: reduction in student loan debt is associated with an increase
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: of home ownership rate of approximately one and a half
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: to two percent points for young adults. Now we saw
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: the overall contribution of declining. Increasing student loan debt is
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: estimated to account for approximately twenty percent of the total
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: decline in home ownership and young adults. This is adults
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: between the ages of twenty four to thirty two that
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: was observed between twenty five and twenty fourteen, So we
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: saw approximately about twenty percent reduction and that age group
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: being able to go and buy home because of this
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: student loan debt. So the reason being is that it
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: impacts the debt to income ratio. It also impractics, you know,
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: the ability to save for down payment because obviously from
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: after seven after the crash and seven oh eight, we
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: couldn't do the Ninja loans no income, no job, no assets,
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: no down payment, and then we got into the faha
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: three and a half percent down payments, and now we're
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: seeing I think average down payment somewhere I think five
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: to ten percent.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, which is and that that didn't even come around.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: That would be another interesting statistic, was like average down
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: payment percentage back in the Baby Boomers era. Well, the
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: picture that I think we're trying to paint here is
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: that we tend to focus on housing affordability when we
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: look at the difference in generations, and we don't look
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: at overall cultural and economic differences. Right, we are buying
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: homes that are fifty percent larger than they were in
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: the Baby Boomer generation. We are also financing educations at
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: a much higher clip than we were. We are adding
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: accessories to our lives like computers, smartphones, everything that racks
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: up credit card debt and things like that. Can you
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: this will be a really interesting one, Jesse, And I
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: think this will paint a picture of is that what
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about?
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: Can you just google the terms like.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: Average income to car price by year or something like that. Right,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: Like the picture that I'm trying to paint and this
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: will continue to go up. I'm sure right yousticularly films
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: and how's that kind of.
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: Changed over time?
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: My thesis would be that we spend more on cars
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: as a percentage of our overall income than we did
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: back in the Baby ven generation as well. The reason
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: that I bring all these things up is because I
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: think it's important to explore what else goes into affordability
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: at a baseline level rather than just housing, Because housing
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: affordability is just lifestyle affordability. Can we afford to live
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: the lives that we want to live and the place
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: that we live in, whether or not we own it,
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: is going to be one factor of our overall lifestyle.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: And so how do we then, in the new era,
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: the modern era, how do we get housing affordability back
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: under control. Building is one, bringing student loan debt down
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: is another. Creating more affordable areas of our lifestyles in general,
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: all of that will spur home ownership forward again, we
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: have to get there. I think that we're having really
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: important conversations right now around the higher education space and
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: whether or not it is worth it to take on
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: an enormous amount of debt in order to further my education.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: My thesis is that we are entering phase two of
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: the higher education cycle. In my opinion, I really think
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: it's going to happen slowly then quickly.
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: Well yeah, face too, it's funny.
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: I'd like, No, I want to pull up a text
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: I just got from a good friend of mine. He's like,
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: I know you think about this way too much, and
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: it says, you know, you know, AI is accelerating so
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: fast that going to school might not be.
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: Worth it anymore. Slowly then quickly. Right.
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: One of my kids is sixteen years old and he
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: drives himself to school and one day he slept in
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: and I was so astonished. I was like, how how
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: is that even possible? If I would have done that
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: as a kid, then I thought my parents would have
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: you know. Then the thought of what my parents would
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: have done to me, you know, I would have scared
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: the crap out of me. But now they're talking about
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: is that, you know, with with you know, you're right,
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: we're we're we're probably close to figuring, you know, with
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: AI and the expansion of that, it's going to have
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: an impact on school. It's going to have an impact
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: on all one, on all of it we can get
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: into a scared you know, we don't even need to
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: get into a scary part of where this goes. But
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: you know, the the consolidation within that is, do we
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: see less people taking on student loan debt and finding
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: ways to make money, whether that is part of universal
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: income that may come out, part you know, part you know,
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: gig economy, and now they don't have as much debt
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: that they were there they were saddling and now they're
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: going back into all right, we can we're gonna go
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: buy a house.
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: We're gonna we need to have a home base.
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, we're working from home because we're working
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: maybe multiple jobs or whatever that may be.
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: And you know, I do think you're right.
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: We are in phase three of the consolidation market on
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: the real estate side, which is inventory starts building up,
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: your prices starts stabilizing.
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: You know, you you know, from the.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: Agent side, the week operators are exiting, we're seeing a large,
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: you know, a large exit from on non renewals of licenses.
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: And then from that from the real estate sector, is
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: that your professionals start to gain market share, the ones
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: that are building scalable, legitimate businesses start to see an
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: increase in their market share.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: I have no problem talking anecdotally on this show. And
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: for as long as you listen to me and Nick
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: on this show, or any guests we ever have on
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: or anytime Jesse Is is kind enough to chime in,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: just know that, like, we don't care if we're wrong.
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: Sometimes we're having fun here and I'm probably going to
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: say stuff that if you fact check me on there
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: might be ten percent of it that I got a
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: little bit off. I speak from lived experience as much
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: as I try to try to get the numbers right.
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: But I'm always honest about that. And so where I
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: think that we're at right now at the market, we
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: can look at all the stats, we can look at
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: all these things. One of the reasons that I think
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: that we are firmly into a phase three right now
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: is because we run an organization that serves high producing
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: real estate agents on the transaction management side, and they're
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: busier than ever, and we're busier than ever. It's expanding
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: like crazy because they're starting to get really busy, but
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: we don't serve Our business is not designed to serve
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: agents who are only selling five.
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: Homes a year, right not one offs.
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Right, we serve the professional agent and they need us
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: more than ever. That's an anecdotal piece. But when I
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: see things like that, that feels like a leading indicator
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: that we're going into consolidation.
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: And look, the good news is, as you're hearing this again,
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: this is not this is not designed to scare anybody.
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: It's designed to Let's look at this logically from phase one,
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: two and three. If if, if we truly are right
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: now in phase three and we believe that we are,
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: this the best thing is this Historically, this is where
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: it's the best.
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: Time to make money.
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, right, because again you're you have you you're starting
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: to see the that there's less competition, right, there's maybe
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: even less competition. While there's still maybe a higher number
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: of licensed agents. A lot of those licensed agents maybe
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: not wanting to get more business because they think the
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: markets so bad is and they don't want to bang
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: their heads against the wall, or maybe that they're afraid
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: that they're giving their clients wrong advice, whatever that may be.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: And so for you as the skilled up professional who
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: is who was plugging in, going to the meetups, going
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: to trainings, uh, listening to to you know, the NAR stats.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: You know, Place is the company that I'm a part of,
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: Place that the good Home Teams associated with. Just had
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: doctor Lawrence, you know, on the chief economists for for NAR,
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: and they are saying like, look, you know, we are
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: starting to we are starting to see us pull a rebound. Yep,
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: you know, we're going to see demand. Demand is going
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: to slowly start to increase, which is great news. And
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: that's great news for people that are building their business,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: that is building their pipeline, that is continuing to follow up,
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: that is educating people don't want to be sold.
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: They want to be educated exactly, and.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: Then they and then it's your job to guide them
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: to the best solution for them one hundred percent.
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: And I feel like that's exactly where we're at right now.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: Just you pulled something up before that piqued my interest,
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: and it's not something around affordability, but I have this
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: this thought stuck.
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: In my head of where we go from here.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: So today there are a thousand feet larger than nineteen
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: seventy three. Do you what is your guys' opinion on
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: We always talk about home affordability is difficult because we
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: don't have enough units. We haven't built enough. And that's
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: true to an extent. I think there's a there's an
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: extreme version of that where you overbuild and then and
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: then demand dies down. But if we are going to
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: be using AI and so much technology in the future,
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: do you feel like people tend to gravitate away from
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: like massive city centers and things like that, and we
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: start to build more and expand geographically and that brings
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: affordability back into play.
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, hasn't that always been the play though? I mean,
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: if you think about it, think of it this way,
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: right this you know city of Dallas. Everything has expanded
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: out from that because people were either trying to get
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: away from the noise whatever it is they got and
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: the lands cheaper. If you go here in Collin County,
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: you know, Plano got hot. It built up really really fast.
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: And then so what did people do. They got into Allen,
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: they went into McKinny, they went into Frisco, and then
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: from there that started to build up. Then you go
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: further north Van Austein you got you know, got uh Melissa,
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: you got Anna Princeton. So if you really look at that,
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: we've always been doing that. Now, the sacrifice back then
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: was are you willing to go out and be a
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: homeowner and find a more affordable home out and this
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: part of pound. But the sacrifice is that you're going
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: to have to draw your commute time to work is
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: going to be x.
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there are thresholds for everything. There's a pricing threshold
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: that I won't pay above, there's a geographic threshold that
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: I won't live this far out right, And so that's
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: that's yes, That's been the general way that we expand
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: is kind of slowly over time, we expand geographically. I
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: wonder if that will accelerate. But I've always I'm usually
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: pretty honest about why and when I don't try to
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: sound smarter than I am. And I've never understood the statistics.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: So maybe I'm just dumb and I'm totally missing something.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: But like this one that you pull up right here,
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: Jesse says, this is the Center for American Progress is
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: cited in here. The US face is a chronic housing shortage,
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: with estimates of the deskficit raging from one point five
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: million to over five point five million. By the way,
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: really big range. That just sounds like smart people trying
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: to sound smart, because that's like so bad. I know,
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: whenever you get into the millions, it just seems like
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: millions as millions. But the difference between one point five
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: million and five point five million is very big. That's
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: a substantial range, with experts suggesting two million to twenty
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: million new units are needed to resolve the crisis. It
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: could be this, it could be ten times this, Like,
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: why would you even have an opinion if your range
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: is so big. I don't know what that means, and
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: I've never claimed to know. When we say, let's just
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: say it's five point five million. When you say that
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: we have a shortage of five point five million homes,
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: what does that mean? Does that mean we have five
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: point five million homeless families in America? Or does that
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: mean we have five point five million people that have
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: the capacity to purchase but there's not an available home
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: for them, meaning they are currently renting, but they make
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: enough income to purchase a home and there's not a
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: home for.
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: Them to do. You see what I'm saying there.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: I've never understood what that statistics means because I thought
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five or at the end of twenty
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: twenty four hours, under the assumption that the median income
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: to median home price. That the median home price in
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: America is like twenty six percent short of what the
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: median income needed to be. Look that here's what It's
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: not twenty six percent, but it was lower than it
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: needed to be.
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: So that the technical definition, right is houding shortage exist
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: when household formation is growing faster than the housing supply,
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: which is new homes plus reselle inventory.
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: Gotcha.
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: So, in simple terms, more people are moving into DFW
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: than homes are being built or listed. That's the reason
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: why they call it or their future casting, the shortage
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: that is happening, because it's it is household formation. It's
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: not you know, it's it's not that there's not enough
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: homes for sale. It's not there's not enough homes for
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: sale to meet the future needs and to meet the
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: need to the people who want or need to live
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: in it.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: Okay, So it is technically a little bit like my
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: first idea that like there's five point five people that
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: would eventually be homeless if we didn't build more homes
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: because we're growth, our population growth is such that at
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: a certain event horizon, we will not have enough homes
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: for five point five million people if we continue at
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: this pace, that makes sense. That's always confused me.
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: Now, But what that doesn't I always say, does that
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: doesn't take an account? You know, we talk about that,
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: But does that take into account the apartments that are
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: being built?
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: That's what I've also wondered that as well, which kind
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: of goes to my second thesis, like does that mean
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: people are being forced to rent because they're not enough
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: available homes and so they could afford a home, but
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: there's nothing in their area and so they're renting. And
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: maybe that plays into it as well. So maybe it's
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: kind of like number one and two that I was
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: talking about.
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: I've just those are some of the statistics we say
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: with a lot of conviction, and I'm just like honest
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: enough to be like, I don't know what we're convicted about.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: I've never understood what the statistic means. The population growth
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: to building makes a lot of sense. So this says
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: National Low Income Housing Coalition identifies as specific sorts of
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: seven point one million rental homes for extremely low income households.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: This I believe with all of my heart and soul,
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: and I think that we are not talking enough. We
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: could probably do a whole another show on this. That
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: we are not talking enough about affordable housing for low
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: income people in this country. And it's something that I
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: will tell you guys, should be important to not important
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: to everyone in the sense that everybody needs to take
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: action around it, but we should very much care about
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: that because the backbone of our economy is people that
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: are at median are lower than median income and it
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: is getting incredibly difficult for them to find affordable places
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: to live in that that will always societally lead to
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: very bad things.
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: Yes, let me, Brian bring it back.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: I didn't mean to like make it wear there's yeah,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: I don't even know where to take that.
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: Go to part five, which is the now look.
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: This is this is the final part because we do
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: have to We do got to go to our real estate.
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: We do.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: We do so as after you've listened to this and
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: the show has been released, next week we will have
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: our second realer meetup and all you got to do
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: if you want to go to this. I believe we
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: have over one hundred RSVP for this one. We had
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: over one hundred last time. We had fifty plus people
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: show up to the first one and it's a great time.
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: It was fun, right, a lot of a lot of
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: Look it's all there's no there's no selling, there's no agenda.
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: This is a meetup. This is getting face to face,
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: bellied belly with with agents, lenders, the vendors, and talking shop.
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: And that's what we need to be doing. In a
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: world of technology and AI. We hide behind our screens
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: and we get into this our own little kind of
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: think tank, and we're not the best.
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: We're not. We shouldn't be the only one in.
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: That thing tank exactly, and neither should your AI because
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: it's always gonna it's always gonna find way is to
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: always agree with you. So make sure to go to
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: our real estate Facebook group DFW Realtors and and listen
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: to to really understand it. Twenty twenty six is not
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: it's not a rebound year. It's a redistribution year. Right,
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: So we're not rebounding, it's just a redistribution. The good
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: news is, look less agents are, they're leaving.
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: It's a great way to put it.
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: Look, it's a more it's a bigger and better opportunity
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: for you, right, and and it takes it from maybe
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: maybe during that expansion phase, you were more of a
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: passive participant, meaning that everything just came to you.
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: It was super easy.
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: Then the skill set didn't have to be there, the
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: lead generation didn't have to be there. Now you've got
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: to be a consistent participant, a consistent producer. And this
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: is where you go into more of the portfolio builder
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: instead of being a transactional builder.
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: It takes a little bit more work, it takes a
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: little bit more relationship, It takes a little bit more
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: you know, elbow grease and problem solving and then what
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: you will do. And this is something that Brian and
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: I really really want to bring to the marketplace because
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: this is something we shared yesterday and we've been asked
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: to speak at a larger conference in July. You're going
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: to go from surviving. You get to go from surviving
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: agents to an opportunity first agent and an opportunity first framework.
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: And being an opportunity first agent is going to allow
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: you to work off of eight steps to really look
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: and analyze listing at bats and listing opportunities, and how
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: it's going to allow you to become the wealth builder
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: in your family. How it's going to help you build
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: passive income. How it's going to help you protect your
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: future and your retirement. So just be on the lookout
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: for that.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: Brian, I'm going to pull audible and make an executive decision.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: I really think that next episode we should talk more
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: about the opportunity framework the opportunity.
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: First, we'll take out some food chain.
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: We'll running let's seas were running up, running up the ladder.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean bottom line is the agents. Agents
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: that are building a bigger tool belt are succeeding right now.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: Agents that are plugging into their business and doing the
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: work are succeeding right now. And again I know this
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: is anecdotal, but agents that are are are are doing
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: the work every day and are producing agents. They're starting
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: to have really good years. Again, We're seeing it, and
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: that means that market share is becoming available for everyone.
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: It's just whether or not you're willing to plug into
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: your business every day.
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: Absolutely, what a show. That was a good one.
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if you can go and go like this on YouTube,
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: go subscribe to it on Spotify and Apple podcasts, and
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: comment on the on the Facebook group this is where
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: it gets dropped and posted.
• 55:39
  Speaker 3: And then of course go support those sponsors.
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: Please Homeward Property Management, the best property management company in Dallas.
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: For Ward Duncan and Data, the two the double ds.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: They crush it Duncan and Data. Just go to Homeward
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: DFW dot com and then you're all for your all,
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: your remodeling, your handyman work, your HVAC, your roof and
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: your electrical, you're plumbing whatever you need. When when you
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: think of fixing, repairing, remodeling and rehabbing, think of Chris
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: over at pro Care Home Solutions pro Care DFW dot com.
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: And then give it Jesse. Jesse will to hook you
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: up in the studio. Looks amazing, It's phenomenal in here.
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: Any other Donald Trump word some some of those big
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: buzzwords huge just got a tour studios dot com and
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: tell them that the people are from the the df
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: W podcast.
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: Didn't you over there? Episode four in the books.
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: We really appreciate everybody listening and we'll see you next week.
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: Brian, don't forget to eat.
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: Churn it up.
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: This week at pfil your Real Estate weekly podcast too.
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: For agents to actually.
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: Give paid Parky listening, Heat Colthing.
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: Freaks, d F Way lessen. The years passed the US
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: past the day,